ipsos poll on federal election - october 05

15-068206-01 - FEDERAL ELECTIONS 2015 (eNation #555 Oct 2-4, 2015) Detailed Tables

Ipsos Public AffairsOctober 5, 2015FINAL DATA

15 of 76

RV1A. Thinking of how you feel right now, if a FEDERAL election were held tomorrow, which of the following parties' candidates would you, yourself, be most likely to support?

EDUCATION DECIDED VOTER - LEANERS INCLUDED

TOTAL <HS HS Post Sec Univ GradA B C D E F G

Base: All respondents

Unweighted Base 1441 70 272 533 566 406 416 346

Weighted Base 1441 77* 282 532 550 416 409 328

The Conservative Party392 18 84 148 142 392 0 0

27% 24% 30% 28% 26% 94% - -FGHI

The Liberal Party392 19 67 137 169 0 392 0

27% 25% 24% 26% 31% - 96% -B EGHI

The New Democratic Party (NDP)309 12 59 110 127 0 0 309

21% 15% 21% 21% 23% - - 94%EFHI

The Bloc Quebecois (BQ)64 7 12 25 21 0 0 0

4% 9% 4% 5% 4% - - -

Green Party40 0 9 13 18 0 0 0

3% - 3% 2% 3% - - -

Other1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0

0 - 0 - - - - -

Would not vote/None/Would spoil ballot38 7 5 17 9 0 0 0

3% 9% 2% 3% 2% - - -BCD

Don't Know/Not sure205 14 45 83 63 24 17 19

14% 18% 16% 16% 11% 6% 4% 6%

Proportions/Means: Columns Tested (5% risk level) - A/B/C/D - E/F/G/H/I/J - K/L/M - N/O - P/Q/R * small base; ** very small base (under 30) ineligible for sig testing

The Conservative

PartyThe Liberal

Party

The New Democratic Party (NDP)



16 of 76

RV1B. Well, which party would you say you would lean towards?



Base: Undecided

Unweighted Base 205 13 42 87 63 23 18 19

Weighted Base 205 14** 45* 83* 63* 24** 17** 19**


12% 27% 4% 9% 17% 100% - -B


8% 6% 10% 4% 13% - 100% -


9% 12% 15% 7% 8% - - 100%


1% - 6% - - - - -C

Green Party2 0 0 1 1 0 0 0

1% - - 1% 1% - - -

Don't know140 7 30 65 38 0 0 0

68% 55% 66% 79% 60% - - -D


The Conservative

PartyThe Liberal

Party




17 of 76

RV1A/Q1B. ALL VOTERS - LEANERS INCLUDED




Unweighted Base 1441 70 272 533 566 406 416 346

Weighted Base 1441 77* 282 532 550 416 409 328


29% 28% 30% 29% 28% 100% - -FGHI


28% 26% 25% 26% 32% - 100% -BC EGHI


23% 18% 23% 22% 24% - - 100%EFHI


5% 9% 5% 5% 4% - - -

Green Party42 0 9 14 19 0 0 0

3% - 3% 3% 4% - - -

Other1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0

0 - 0 - - - - -

Would not vote/None/Would spoil ballot38 7 5 17 9 0 0 0

3% 9% 2% 3% 2% - - -BCD

Don't Know/Not sure140 7 30 65 38 0 0 0

10% 10% 11% 12% 7% - - -D


The Conservative

PartyThe Liberal

Party




18 of 76

RV1A/Q1B. DECIDED VOTER - LEANERS INCLUDED



Base: Decided Voters - Leaners Included

Unweighted Base 1264 57 240 448 519 406 416 346

Weighted Base 1263 62* 248 450 503 416 409 328


33% 35% 35% 35% 30% 100% - -FGHI


32% 32% 29% 31% 35% - 100% -EGHI


26% 22% 27% 26% 26% - - 100%EFHI


5% 11% 6% 5% 4% - - -D

Green Party42 0 9 14 19 0 0 0

3% - 4% 3% 4% - - -

Other1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0

0 - 0 - - - - -


The Conservative

PartyThe Liberal

Party




19 of 76

RV2. How certain are you that this is the party that you will actually support on Election Day:



Unweighted Base 1271 57 242 450 522 406 416 346

Weighted Base 1270 62* 250 452 507 416 409 328

Absolutely certain614 27 117 219 251 235 174 140

48% 43% 47% 49% 50% 56% 43% 43%FG

Fairly certain517 22 106 189 199 135 190 150

41% 36% 42% 42% 39% 32% 46% 46%E E

Not very certain128 13 26 39 50 43 40 35

10% 21% 10% 9% 10% 10% 10% 11%BCD

Not at all certain12 0 2 4 6 5 5 2

1% - 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 0

TOPBOX & LOWBOX SUMMARY

T2B1131 49 223 408 451 369 364 291

89% 79% 89% 90% 89% 89% 89% 89%A A

L2B140 13 27 44 56 47 45 37

11% 21% 11% 10% 11% 11% 11% 11%CD


The Conservative

PartyThe Liberal

Party


Base: Respondents who selected a party at RV1A or RV1B



20 of 76

RV3. And, assuming you can't vote for your first choice, which party would you support as a second choice?



Unweighted Base 1271 57 242 450 522 406 416 346

Weighted Base 1270 62* 250 452 507 416 409 328


9% 9% 7% 9% 9% - 15% 13%EI E


20% 7% 18% 19% 24% 21% - 48%A A FH EFHI


26% 30% 22% 25% 29% 19% 53% -B G EGHI


3% 7% 5% 3% 2% 5% 1% 6%D D F F

Some other party174 10 38 69 57 60 44 58

14% 16% 15% 15% 11% 14% 11% 18%I I FI

Don't know/Not sure358 20 83 129 127 173 85 52

28% 32% 33% 28% 25% 42% 21% 16%D FG


The Conservative

PartyThe Liberal

Party


Base: Respondents who selected a party at RV1A or RV1B



21 of 76




Unweighted Base 1441 70 272 533 566 406 416 346

Weighted Base 1441 77* 282 532 550 416 409 328

Strongly approve169 6 34 58 71 134 18 11

12% 7% 12% 11% 13% 32% 4% 3%FGHI

Somewhat approve450 31 90 181 149 252 78 50

31% 41% 32% 34% 27% 60% 19% 15%D D FGHI

Somewhat disapprove354 15 85 124 131 28 124 95

25% 19% 30% 23% 24% 7% 30% 29%C E E

Strongly disapprove469 25 74 170 200 3 189 172

33% 33% 26% 32% 36% 1% 46% 52%B E E


T2B619 37 123 239 220 385 96 61

43% 48% 44% 45% 40% 93% 23% 19%FGHI

L2B822 40 159 293 330 31 313 267

57% 52% 56% 55% 60% 7% 77% 81%E E


4. Thinking about the Conservative government under the leadership of Stephen Harper, from what you have seen, read or heard, would you say that you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove or strongly disapprove of their performance?

The Conservative

PartyThe Liberal

Party




22 of 76




Unweighted Base 1441 70 272 533 566 406 416 346

Weighted Base 1441 77* 282 532 550 416 409 328

480 26 100 179 175 372 29 21

33% 34% 35% 34% 32% 89% 7% 6%FGHI

Time for another federal party to take over961 51 182 353 375 44 380 307

67% 66% 65% 66% 68% 11% 93% 94%E E


RV5. Some people say that the Conservative government under Prime Minister Stephen Harper has done a good job and deserves to be re-elected on October 19th. Other people say that it is time for another federal party to take over and run the country. Which of these statements is closest to your point of view?

The Conservative

PartyThe Liberal

Party


Harper government has done a good job and deserves re-election



23 of 76

7. To what extent do you approve or disapprove of the Federal Government's overall management of the Canadian economy?




Unweighted Base 1441 70 272 533 566 406 416 346

Weighted Base 1441 77* 282 532 550 416 409 328

Strongly approve164 3 38 54 69 128 25 5

11% 3% 14% 10% 13% 31% 6% 1%A A FGHI G

Somewhat approve557 31 109 217 200 255 121 82

39% 40% 39% 41% 36% 61% 30% 25%FGHI

Somewhat disapprove432 23 94 155 160 28 146 135

30% 30% 33% 29% 29% 7% 36% 41%E E

Strongly disapprove289 21 41 107 120 6 117 106

20% 27% 14% 20% 22% 1% 29% 32%B B E E


T2B720 33 148 271 269 383 146 86

50% 43% 52% 51% 49% 92% 36% 26%FGHI G

L2B721 43 135 262 281 33 263 241

50% 57% 48% 49% 51% 8% 64% 74%E EF


The Conservative

PartyThe Liberal

Party




24 of 76

8. Which leader of the major federal parties would make the best Prime Minister of Canada?




Unweighted Base 1441 70 272 533 566 406 416 346

Weighted Base 1441 77* 282 532 550 416 409 328

Stephen Harper486 24 103 189 170 366 28 18

34% 31% 36% 36% 31% 88% 7% 6%FGHI

Justin Trudeau475 24 95 173 184 27 329 33

33% 31% 34% 33% 33% 6% 80% 10%EGHI

Thomas Mulcair480 29 85 170 196 24 52 276

33% 38% 30% 32% 36% 6% 13% 84%E EFHI


The Conservative

PartyThe Liberal

Party




25 of 76




Unweighted Base 1441 70 272 533 566 406 416 346

Weighted Base 1441 77* 282 532 550 416 409 328

Stephen Harper and the Conservatives507 25 112 187 183 370 38 21

35% 32% 40% 35% 33% 89% 9% 6%FGHI

Justin Trudeau and the Liberals499 20 100 180 199 25 342 38

35% 26% 35% 34% 36% 6% 84% 12%EGHI E

Thomas Mulcair and the NDP435 32 71 165 167 21 29 269

30% 41% 25% 31% 30% 5% 7% 82%B EFHI


9. As you may know, there's been a lot of talk about the weak performance of Canada's economy. In your view, which party and leader would be best able to deal with this issue if they are elected on October 19 th?

The Conservative

PartyThe Liberal

Party




26 of 76

10. In your view, which Party and leader is gaining the most popularity and momentum in this election?




Unweighted Base 1441 70 272 533 566 406 416 346

Weighted Base 1441 77* 282 532 550 416 409 328

Justin Trudeau and the Liberals612 30 118 237 227 88 314 106

42% 39% 42% 44% 41% 21% 77% 32%EGHI E

Stephen Harper and the Conservatives334 14 71 128 121 237 34 24

23% 18% 25% 24% 22% 57% 8% 7%FGHI

Thomas Mulcair and the NDP341 23 70 115 134 60 38 184

24% 30% 25% 22% 24% 14% 9% 56%F EFHI

Gilles Duceppe and the Bloc40 4 13 10 13 1 0 0

3% 5% 5% 2% 2% 0 - -C

Elizabeth May and the Green Party114 6 10 43 56 30 23 14

8% 7% 3% 8% 10% 7% 6% 4%B B


The Conservative

PartyThe Liberal

Party




27 of 76

11. [SUPPORT SUMMARY TABLE (Top2Box)]




Unweighted Base 1441 70 272 533 566 406 416 346

Weighted Base 1441 77* 282 532 550 416 409 328

535 29 113 195 199 277 124 50

37% 38% 40% 37% 36% 67% 30% 15%FGHI GHI

508 33 109 197 169 232 78 97

35% 42% 39% 37% 31% 56% 19% 30%D D FGHI F

494 26 106 175 188 139 214 60

34% 34% 38% 33% 34% 33% 52% 18%GHI EGHI

The Liberals governing with support from the NDP742 39 131 267 305 58 333 213

51% 51% 46% 50% 55% 14% 82% 65%B EGHI EH

463 31 91 172 170 121 97 150

32% 40% 32% 32% 31% 29% 24% 46%EFI

The NDP governing with support from the Liberals731 30 127 261 313 47 265 271

51% 40% 45% 49% 57% 11% 65% 83%ABC E EFHI


The Conservative

PartyThe Liberal

Party


The Conservatives governing with support from the Liberals

The Conservatives governing with support from the NDP

The Liberals governing with support from the Conservatives

The NDP governing with support from the Conservatives



28 of 76

11. [OPPOSE SUMMARY TABLE (Low2Box)]




Unweighted Base 1441 70 272 533 566 406 416 346

Weighted Base 1441 77* 282 532 550 416 409 328

906 48 170 337 351 139 285 277

63% 62% 60% 63% 64% 33% 70% 85%E EF

933 44 173 336 380 185 331 231

65% 58% 61% 63% 69% 44% 81% 70%BC EGH E

947 51 176 358 362 277 195 268

66% 66% 62% 67% 66% 67% 48% 82%F EF

The Liberals governing with support from the NDP699 38 152 265 245 359 76 114

49% 49% 54% 50% 45% 86% 18% 35%D FGHI F

978 46 192 360 380 296 312 178

68% 60% 68% 68% 69% 71% 76% 54%G G

The NDP governing with support from the Liberals710 46 156 271 237 369 144 57

49% 60% 55% 51% 43% 89% 35% 17%D D D FGHI G


The Conservative

PartyThe Liberal

Party








29 of 76




Unweighted Base 1441 70 272 533 566 406 416 346

Weighted Base 1441 77* 282 532 550 416 409 328

Strongly support142 5 23 46 68 94 29 12

10% 7% 8% 9% 12% 23% 7% 4%FGHI

Somewhat support393 23 90 149 131 183 95 38

27% 31% 32% 28% 24% 44% 23% 12%D FGHI GH

Somewhat oppose385 19 80 142 145 85 122 95

27% 25% 28% 27% 26% 20% 30% 29%E E

Strongly oppose520 29 90 195 206 55 164 183

36% 38% 32% 37% 38% 13% 40% 56%E EF


Support (Top2Box)535 29 113 195 199 277 124 50

37% 38% 40% 37% 36% 67% 30% 15%FGHI GHI

Oppose (Low2Box)906 48 170 337 351 139 285 277

63% 62% 60% 63% 64% 33% 70% 85%E EF


11. [The Conservatives governing with support from the Liberals] There is a possibility that the election could result in a minority government. To what extent do you support or oppose the following combinations of government?

The Conservative

PartyThe Liberal

Party





30 of 76




Unweighted Base 1441 70 272 533 566 406 416 346

Weighted Base 1441 77* 282 532 550 416 409 328


6% 13% 6% 6% 6% 13% 4% 6%C FGHI


29% 30% 33% 31% 24% 43% 15% 24%D D FGI F

Somewhat oppose429 23 82 157 167 112 137 94

30% 31% 29% 29% 30% 27% 34% 29%H EH H

Strongly oppose504 21 91 179 214 72 193 137

35% 27% 32% 34% 39% 17% 47% 42%E E


Support (Top2Box)508 33 109 197 169 232 78 97

35% 42% 39% 37% 31% 56% 19% 30%D D FGHI F

Oppose (Low2Box)933 44 173 336 380 185 331 231

65% 58% 61% 63% 69% 44% 81% 70%BC EGH E


11. [The Conservatives governing with support from the NDP] There is a possibility that the election could result in a minority government. To what extent do you support or oppose the following combinations of government?

The Conservative

PartyThe Liberal

Party





31 of 76




Unweighted Base 1441 70 272 533 566 406 416 346

Weighted Base 1441 77* 282 532 550 416 409 328


8% 6% 8% 8% 8% 7% 18% 2%G EGHI


26% 27% 29% 25% 26% 27% 35% 17%GH EGHI

Somewhat oppose441 22 75 159 186 122 100 122

31% 29% 26% 30% 34% 29% 24% 37%B EF

Strongly oppose506 29 102 199 176 156 95 146

35% 38% 36% 37% 32% 37% 23% 45%F F


Support (Top2Box)494 26 106 175 188 139 214 60

34% 34% 38% 33% 34% 33% 52% 18%GHI EGHI

Oppose (Low2Box)947 51 176 358 362 277 195 268

66% 66% 62% 67% 66% 67% 48% 82%F EF


11. [The Liberals governing with support from the Conservatives] There is a possibility that the election could result in a minority government. To what extent do you support or oppose the following combinations of government?

The Conservative

PartyThe Liberal

Party





32 of 76




Unweighted Base 1441 70 272 533 566 406 416 346

Weighted Base 1441 77* 282 532 550 416 409 328

The Liberals governing with support from the NDP


17% 15% 15% 15% 21% 2% 41% 17%BC EGHI E


34% 35% 31% 35% 34% 12% 41% 48%E EFH

Somewhat oppose302 20 59 111 113 105 53 69

21% 26% 21% 21% 21% 25% 13% 21%F F

Strongly oppose397 18 93 154 132 254 22 45

28% 24% 33% 29% 24% 61% 5% 14%D FGHI F


Support (Top2Box)742 39 131 267 305 58 333 213

51% 51% 46% 50% 55% 14% 82% 65%B EGHI EH

Oppose (Low2Box)699 38 152 265 245 359 76 114

49% 49% 54% 50% 45% 86% 18% 35%D FGHI F


11. [The Liberals governing with support from the NDP] There is a possibility that the election could result in a minority government. To what extent do you support or oppose the following combinations of government?

The Conservative

PartyThe Liberal

Party




33 of 76




Unweighted Base 1441 70 272 533 566 406 416 346

Weighted Base 1441 77* 282 532 550 416 409 328


5% 7% 5% 5% 5% 5% 3% 12%EFHI


27% 32% 27% 27% 26% 24% 21% 33%EF

Somewhat oppose414 19 84 154 157 110 129 80

29% 25% 30% 29% 29% 26% 31% 25%G

Strongly oppose563 27 108 206 223 186 184 97

39% 35% 38% 39% 41% 45% 45% 30%G G


Support (Top2Box)463 31 91 172 170 121 97 150

32% 40% 32% 32% 31% 29% 24% 46%EFI

Oppose (Low2Box)978 46 192 360 380 296 312 178

68% 60% 68% 68% 69% 71% 76% 54%G G


11. [The NDP governing with support from the Conservatives] There is a possibility that the election could result in a minority government. To what extent do you support or oppose the following combinations of government?

The Conservative

PartyThe Liberal

Party





34 of 76




Unweighted Base 1441 70 272 533 566 406 416 346

Weighted Base 1441 77* 282 532 550 416 409 328

The NDP governing with support from the Liberals


19% 11% 16% 17% 22% 2% 16% 47%ABC E EFHI


32% 29% 29% 32% 34% 9% 49% 35%EGH E

Somewhat oppose286 18 62 108 98 105 76 31

20% 23% 22% 20% 18% 25% 18% 10%FG G

Strongly oppose424 28 94 162 139 264 68 25

29% 37% 33% 31% 25% 63% 17% 8%D D FGHI G


Support (Top2Box)731 30 127 261 313 47 265 271

51% 40% 45% 49% 57% 11% 65% 83%ABC E EFHI

Oppose (Low2Box)710 46 156 271 237 369 144 57

49% 60% 55% 51% 43% 89% 35% 17%D D D FGHI G


11. [The NDP governing with support from the Liberals] There is a possibility that the election could result in a minority government. To what extent do you support or oppose the following combinations of government?

The Conservative

PartyThe Liberal

Party




35 of 76

12. Which of the major federal parties do you believe presents the best alternative to the current Harper Conservative government?




Unweighted Base 1441 70 272 533 566 406 416 346

Weighted Base 1441 77* 282 532 550 416 409 328

The Liberals led by Justin Trudeau734 32 150 261 291 223 377 19

51% 41% 53% 49% 53% 53% 92% 6%GH EGHI

The NDP led by Thomas Mulcair707 45 133 271 258 194 32 309

49% 59% 47% 51% 47% 47% 8% 94%F EFHI


The Conservative

PartyThe Liberal

Party




36 of 76

13. If the Conservatives win the most seats in the election but not a majority, what do you believe should happen?




Unweighted Base 1441 70 272 533 566 406 416 346

Weighted Base 1441 77* 282 532 550 416 409 328

718 44 149 270 254 389 107 84

50% 57% 53% 51% 46% 93% 26% 26%FGHI

723 33 133 262 295 28 302 244

50% 43% 47% 49% 54% 7% 74% 74%E E


The Conservative

PartyThe Liberal

Party


The Conservatives should be given the chance to try and govern with the support of one of the other parties

The Liberals and the NDP should immediately defeat the government when the House of Commons returns, and the Liberals and NDP should cooperate to govern

ipsos poll on federal election - october 05

Documents