ipsos kenya spec poll 17 april 2015

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SPEC Barometer Press Release

Prepared by : Ipsos

Release date : 17th April 2015

Survey Methodology

Sample Demographics

Issues:

1. Corruption

Awareness and Type of Locality-Level Land-Grabbing

Awareness of Effort to Recover Grabbed Land/Expectations of Success

Awareness of Scandals Under the Jubilee Government

Awareness of Chicken-Gate/Outcome-Expectations of Investigations

Cabinet Secretaries the President Should Sack

Perception of Impact of President’s Directive on Corruption

2. Somalia Issues

Awareness of Presence of KDF in Somalia

Perceived Impact of KDF Presence on Four Related Outcomes

2

Contents

Somalia Issues (Con’t)

Preference on Policy-Options Regarding KDF Presence in Somalia

General KDF Threat Level in Kenya

Teachers’ Refusal to Return to Work in NE Kenya

3. Kenya’s Direction / Presidential Performance Approval Level

Opinion on whether the country is headed in the right or wrong direction

Approval Level of President’s Performance During the Last 3 Months

4. Digital Migration

General Media Access

TV and STB Ownership/Intentions to Buy a STB

Awareness of February 14 Analog Switch-Off

Attribution of Blame and Perceived Motivation for Switch-off

3

Contents (con’t)

Research Questions: Present and Future

1. How much of a contrast is there between Jubilee vs. CORD supporters, and for which issues is such a contrast relevant?

2. How much did (which) results change before and after the Garissa attack (i.e., how transient/fluid are certain results, based on short-term events)?

3. How much will TV viewing patterns be permanently affected by the Digital Migration in terms of: (a) total proportion watching TV; (b) shift in audiences across stations/programmes?

4. How do Kenyans judge presidential performance?

4

Contents (con’t)

5

Methodology

Methodology

6

Dates of polling 28th March - 7th April 2015

Sample Size 1,964

Sampling methodology Random, Multi-stage stratified using PPS

(proportionate to population size)

Universe

Data collection

methodology

Sampling error

Face-to-Face interviews at the household level

Poll funding Ipsos Limited

Kenyan adults, aged 18 and above living

in Urban and Rural areas

+/-2.2% with a 95% confidence level

(Note: Higher error-margins for sub-samples)

Statistical Significance: Respondent Numbers and Error-Margins for: Entire Sample, Before 2nd April , 2nd April and After 2nd April

1,964

1,364

193

452 2.20% 2.60%

6.40%

4.60%

0.00%

1.00%

2.00%

3.00%

4.00%

5.00%

6.00%

7.00%

8.00%

9.00%

10.00%

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

Total Before 2nd April 2nd April After 2nd April

Sample Size Error-Margin

7

Sample Structure Statistics

8

Region

Sample Frame statistics

(April 2015)

*Weighted data

% Population Census as at 2009

Adults (18 years +) %

Central 257 13 2,548,038 13

Coast 173 9 1,711,549 9

Eastern 293 15 2,907,293 15

Nairobi 206 10 2,042,770 10

North Eastern 94* 5 929,158 5

Nyanza 257 13 2,547,980 13

Rift Valley 484 25 4,795,482 25

Western 200 10 1,980,090 10

TOTAL 1,964 100 19,462,360 100

Quality Control Measures

For at least 20% of the interviews, a supervisor is present throughout

Field managers visit at least 15% of the respondents in the sample at their households to confirm the interviews (i.e. back-checking).

After the interview data are electronically transmitted to the Ipsos Server: an independent team then makes random phone calls to 40% of the respondents to confirm that the interviews were conducted with the said respondents (i.e., telephonic back-checks).

Mobile Data Collection Platform captures GPS location (latitudes and longitudes) of interviews conducted to verify the locations of the interviewers in the field alongside allowing silent recording.

Logical data checks are made on selected questionnaire entries to ensure conformity to the sample’s statistical parameters.

9

Ipsos employs quality control measures to ensure the highest

possible integrity of obtained results/data

10

Respondents’

Demographic Profile:

28%

2%

30%

8%

11%

9%

10%

1%

1%

9%

22%

28%

23%

4%

4%

2%

5%

1%

2%

Catholic

Catholic Charismatic

Mainstream Protestant (ACK,…

SDA

Evangelical

Other Christian

Muslim

Refused To Answer/None

No religion

Public Sector wages/salary

Private sector wages /salary

Gains from self employment/…

Agriculture (own/household farm)

Livestock

Given money by others

Pension from previous employment

Other

Don’t Know

Refused To Answer

Demographic Profile

10%

9%

13%

25%

5%

15%

13%

10%

51%

49%

28%

29%

18%

25%

37%

63%

100%

Nairobi

Coast

Nyanza

Rift Valley

North Eastern

Eastern

Central

Western

Female

Male

18 - 24

25 - 34

35 - 44

45+

Urban

Rural

Kenyans

11

Region

Gender

Age

Setting

Religion

Nationality

Source of Household Income

Base: All Respondents (n=1,964)

Demographic Profile

4%

14%

19%

14%

26%

8%

7%

3%

3%

1%

42%

33%

11%

4%

1%

1%

0%

2%

7%

No formal education

Some primary education

Primary education completed

Some secondary education

Secondary education completed

Some middle level college (not…

Completed mid-level college (Not…

Some University education

University education completed

Post Graduate (Masters, MBA, PhD)

Less than 10,000

10,001 – 25,000

25,001 – 40,000

40,001 – 55,000

55,001 – 75,000

75,001 – 100,000

100,001 and above

Has No income

RTA/DK

12

Level of Education

Monthly Household Income (ALL

members of the Household)


Demographic Profile

41%

18%

11%

10%

7%

5%

5%

2%

1%

Self-Employed

Unemployed

Employed in the private sector

Peasant/herder (own farm/pasture)

Casual labour

Employed in the public sector

Student

Retired

Other

13

Employment Status


14

Corruption

“Are you aware of any land in this locality that was public but is now owned by a private individual/company due to corruption?”: by Total, Region

15

15%

29%

24%

16%

11% 11% 10% 10%

7%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

Total(n=1,964)

Coast(n=173)

Nairobi(n=206)

Rift Valley(n=484)

Central(n=257)

Nyanza(n=257)

Eastern(n=293)

NorthEastern(n=94)

Western(n=200)

% Saying “Yes”

Those Aware of Any Land in the Locality That Was Public But is Now Owned by a Private Individual/Company Due to Corruption: by Total, Region

16

15% 17%

15%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

Total (n=1,964) CORD Supporters (n=623) Jubilee Supporters (n=867)

Original Intended Use of the Grabbed Public Land: by Those Aware of Any Such Land

17

3%

1%

1%

1%

1%

1%

1%

2%

2%

3%

9%

10%

28%

35%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%

Unspecified

Cemetery

Sports grounds

Coffee factory

Playground

Residential Land

Slaughterhouse

Nature/Wildlife/Forest

Defense/Military/Police

Infrastructure (Railway Line)

Medical Facility

Agricultural

Communal

School/Educational Facility

71% of Those Aware Believe Such Recovery

Efforts Will Succeed

34% - Aware of Efforts to Recover the Land

Awareness of Any Corruption Scandals Under the Jubilee Government: by Total, Region

18

57%

74% 73%

60%

52% 50%

47% 45%

37%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Total(n=1,964)

Nairobi(n=206)

Nyanza(n=257)

Rift Valley(n=484)

Central(n=257)

Coast(n=173)

Western(n=200)

Eastern(n=293)

NorthEastern(n=94)

Awareness of Particular Corruption Scandals Under the Jubilee Government (Multiple Response): by Those Aware of Any Such Scandals (29 Mentions)

19 Base: n=1,114

6%

3%

4%

4%

5%

7%

7%

13%

17%

19%

23%

25%

31%

33%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%

Other

Lang'ata Primnary School Land Grab

Malili Ranch

Fake Pastors

KCSE Exam Leakage

Ruto Jet Hire

Government Officials (Unspecified)

Standard Gauge Railway

Laptop Project

Coast Land Issues

Police Recruitment Scandal

Anglo-Leasing

Karen Land

Chicken-Gate (IIEC/IEBC/Examinations council)

20

11%

17%

8%

23% 25% 25%

67%

58%

67%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%


Can Name More Than One Can Name One Can’t Name Any

Able to Name Any of the Individuals Named in Chicken-Gate: by Total, Supporters of the Main Political Parties/Coalitions

“Do you think those mentioned actually received a bribe?”: by Those Able to Mention at Least One Chicken-Gate Suspect - Total, Region

21

71%

84% 79%

76% 72% 70% 69% 68%

45%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%% Saying “Yes”

22

30% 26% 38%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Total (n=467) CORD Supporters (n=214) Jubilee Supporters (n=180)

Those Confident That Those Named Will Be Convicted: by Those Who Can Name Any of Those Mention in Chicken-Gate – by Total, Supporters of the Main Political Parties/Coalitions

Those Who Believe Those Named Actually Received the Alleged Bribes: by Those Who Can Name Any of Those Mentioned in Chicken-Gate - by Total, Supporters of the Main Political Parties/Coalitions

71% 82%

63%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Total (n=659) CORD Supporters (n=261) Jubilee Supporters (n=284)

“Which cabinet secretaries, if any, do you think the President should sack completely?” (Multiple Response): by Total

23 Base: All Respondents (n=1,964)

31%

26%

18%

4%

4%

5%

6%

7%

9%

12%

19%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50%

None

Don't Know Them

Others (8)

Davis Chirchir (Energy)

Rachelle Omamo (Defence)

Joseph Ole Nkaissery(Interior and Coordination ofNational Gov't)

Michael Kamau (Transport and Infrastructure)

Felix Koskei (Agriculture, Livestock, and Fisheries)

Samuel Kazungu Kambi (Labour, Social Security, andServices)

Jacob Kaimenyi (Education)

Charity Ngilu (Land, Housing, and UrbanDevelopment)

“Which cabinet secretaries, if any, do you think the President should sack completely?” (Multiple Response): by Supporters of the Main Political Party/Coalitions

24

23%

22%

28%

5%

4%

7%

9%

7%

12%

17%

28%

35%

26%

15%

5%

3%

5%

3%

8%

8%

11%

15%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%

None

Don't Know Them

Others

Davis Chirchir (Energy)

Raychelle Omamo (Defence)

Michael Kamau (Transport andInfrastructure)

Joseph ole Nkaissery(Interior andCoordination of National Gov't)

Felix Koskei (Agriculture, Livestock, andFisheries)

Samuel Kazungu Kambi (Labour, SocialSecurity, and Services)


Charity Ngilu (Land, Housing, and UrbanDevelopment)

Jubilee Supporters (867)

CORD Supporters (623)

“Which cabinet secretaries, if any, do you think the President should sack completely?” (Multiple Response): by Total (excluding those who stated that they “don’t know them”)

25 Base: (n=1,452)

26%

16%

12%

10%

8%

7%

6%

5%

4%

3%

3%

3%

3%

9%

42%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%

Charity Ngilu (Land, Housing and Urban Development)


Samuel Kazungu Kambi (Labour, Social Security and Services)

Felix Koskei (Agriculture, Livestock and Fisheries)

Michael Kamau (Transport and Infrastructure)

Joseph Ole Nkaissery(Interior and Coordination of National G

Davis Chirchir (Energy and Petroleum)

Rayechelle Omamo (Defence)

Anne Waiguru (Devolution and Planning)

Henry Rotich (National Treasury)

James Wainaina Macharia (Health)

Fred Matiangi (Information, Communication and Technology)

Phyllis Kipkingor–Kandie (EAC Affairs, Commerce and Tourism)

Others (5%)

None

“Do you think the President's recent directive on corruption will actually reduce it?”: by Total, Supporters of the Main Political Parties/Coalitions

26

50%

38%

63%

29%

41%

20% 21% 22% 17%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%


YES NO Not Sure

“Do you think the President's recent directive on corruption will help reduce it?”: by Total, Those Who Approve/Disapprove of the President’s Performance Over the Last 3 Months

27

50%

58%

27% 29%

24%

46%

21% 17%

27%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Total (n=1,964) Approve (n=1,453) Disapprove (n=451)

YES NO Not Sure

28

Somalia Issues

“In which neighbouring country is the Kenyan military currently deployed as part of an international/African Union force?”: by Total, Region

29 Base: All Respondents (n=1,964)

73%

79% 78% 77%

72% 72% 71%

66%

57%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Total(n=1,964)

Nairobi(n=206)

Nyanza(n=257)

Rift Valley(n=484)

NorthEastern(n=94)

Eastern(n=293)

Coast(n=173)

Central(n=257)

Western(n=200)

% Saying “Somalia”

“Do you think the presence of the KDF in Somalia will make the following more likely,…?”: by Those Aware of KDF Presence in Somalia

30

36%

49%

26%

34%

47%

38%

49%

39%

13% 11%

20% 17%

4% 2% 5%

10%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

A unified and stablecountry under the new

Government of Somalia

An increase in terroristattacks in Kenya

Refugees able to return totheir homes in Somalia

The military defeat of al-Shabaab

More Likely Less Likely No Difference Not Sure

Base: Those Aware of KDF Presence in Somalia (n=1,492)

Those Believing Each of the Following Will be “More Likely”: by Those Aware of the KDF Presence in Somalia

31

36%

49%

26%

34% 39%

48%

28%

37%

31%

58%

23%

29%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

A unified and stablecountry under the new

Government ofSomalia

An increase in terroristattacks in Kenya

Refugees able toreturn to their homes

in Somalia

The military defeat of-Shabaab

Total (n=1,492) Before 2nd April (n=989) After 2nd April (n=357)

10% Increase

Perceived Impact of KDF Action in Somalia on 4 Issue-Outcomes:

by Total of Those (80%) Aware of KDF Presence in Somalia

32 Base: Those Aware of KDF Presence in Somalia

% saying “MORE LIKELY”

54%

68%

47%

40% 38%

46%

49%

36%

26%

56%

41%

56%

45% 45%

55%

49%

39%

49%

38%

45%

31% 33%

57%

26%

48%

56%

45% 49%

38% 43%

50%

34%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

Oct. 2011(n=1,618)

Nov. 2013(n=1,762)

March 2014(n=1,482)

May 2014(n=1,693)

Sept. 2014(n=1,601)

Nov.2014(n=1,611)

Dec.2014(n=1,806)

April 2015(n=1,492)

A unified and stable country under the new Govt of Somalia

An increase in terrorist attacks in Kenya

Refugees able to return to their homes in Somalia

The military defeat of al-Shabaab

Preferences on Future Policy Regarding the KDF in Somalia: by Those Aware of the KDF Presence in Somalia

33

27%

14% 13%

45%

1%

26%

14% 14%

44%

1%

27%

11% 14%

48%

1% 0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

They should justremain in Somalia

They should bebrought back to

Kenya only if they arereplaced by troopsfrom other African

countries


Kenya whether theyare replaced or not


Kenya and deployedat various border

points

Not Sure


4% Increase

“Altogether, do you approve or disapprove of the continued presence of the KDF in Somalia?”: by Those Aware of the KDF Presence in Somalia

34

51% 53%

48% 48% 46%

51%

1% 1% 1% 0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%


Approve Disapprove No Opinion

5% Decrease

“How much of a threat do you think al-Shabaab is to Kenya as of now?: by Total, Before/After 2nd April

35

70%

18%

8%

2% 2%

66%

20%

10%

2% 3%

80%

14%

4% 1% 0%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Very Much aThreat

Somewhat of aThreat

Not Much of aThreat

Not at All a Threat Not Sure

Total (n=1,964) Before 2nd April (n=1,394 After 2nd April (n=452)

14% Increase

“Do you agree or disagree with the teachers who have refused to return to teach at their schools in North Eastern Kenya?”: by Those Aware of the Refusal of Teachers Who Have Refused to Return to Their Schools in North Eastern Kenya – Total, Region

36

88%

96% 93% 93%

89% 88% 87% 82%

59%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Total(n=1,543)

Nyanza(n=227)

Western(n=118)

Eastern(n=-244)

Nairobi(n=182)

Rift Valley(n=380)

Coast(n=115)

Central(n=187)

NorthEastern(n=90)

% Saying “Agree”

“Do you agree or disagree with the teachers who have refused to return to teach at their schools in NE Kenya?”: by Those Aware of the Teachers’ Refusal to Return to Duty in North Eastern Kenya, Before/After 2nd April

37

89% 87%

93%

11% 13%

7%

1% 1% 1% 0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Total (n=1,593) Before 2nd April (n=1,052) After 2nd April (n=389)

Agree Disagree Not sure

6% Increase

38

General State of the Nation/

President’s Performance

“In your opinion, are things in Kenya generally going in the right or the wrong direction?”: by Total, Before/After 2nd April

39

29% 32%

20%

52% 49%

60%

12% 13% 11%

7% 6% 9%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Total (n=1,964) Before 2nd April (n=1,364) After 2nd April (n-452)

Right Direction Wrong Direction

Neither Right Nor Wrong Direction Not Sure

11% Increase

“In your opinion, are things in Kenya generally going in the right or the wrong direction?”: by Total, Supporters of the Main Political Party/Coalitions

40

29%

52%

12%

7%

13%

74%

8% 5%

41%

35%

14%

9%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Right Direction Wrong Direction Neither Right NorWrong Direction

Not Sure


“On the whole, thinking about Kenya today, are things generally going in the right or wrong direction?” – Trend Analysis

41

29% 30% 26%

29% 32%

29%

64% 62% 60% 58%

52% 52%

7% 7%

13% 14% 16% 19%

Nov. 2013 Feb. 2014 May 2014 Sept. 2014 Nov. 2014 Apr. 2015

Right Direction Wrong Direction Neither Right Nor Wrong/Not Sure

“Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the President’s performance over the last three months?” by Total, Supporters of the Main Political Parties/Coalitions

42

73%

53%

91%

24%

44%

7% 3% 3% 2%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%



“Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the President’s performance over the last three months?” (By Total, Before/After 2nd April)

43

73% 76%

66%

24% 21%

32%

2% 2% 2%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Total (n=1,964) Before 2nd April (n=1,364) After 2nd April (n-452)


10% Decline

“Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the President’s performance over the last three months?” – Trend Analysis

44

78% 73%

22% 24%

0% 3%

Nov. 2014 Apr. 2015

Approve Disapprove No opinion

45

Digital Migration

Main Usual Source of News Over the Last Year: by Total

46

Radio, 58%

Newspapers, 2%

TV, 31%

Internet, 4%

Friends/Family/Colleagues, 3%

None, 1%


YES, 38% NO,

62%

TV Ownership and Access

47

YES, 45%

NO, 55%

“Is there a television set in

your household?”


“Do you ever watch television

somewhere else?”

Base: Those saying that they do not have a TV

in the household (n=1,087)

61%

35% 39%

65%

Urban (n=729) Rural (n=1,235)

YES NO

44% 35%

56% 65%

Urban (n=286) Rural (n=801)

YES NO

Set-Top Box Ownership

48

YES, 49%

NO, 51%

“Do you have a set-top box?”

Base: Those with a TV in the

Household (n=877)

One 96%

Two 3% Three 1%

“How many?”

Base: Those saying that they have a set-top

box in the household (n=427)

54% 43% 46%

57%


YES NO

Intention to Acquire a Set-Top Box

49

YES, 65%

NO, 35%

“Are you or is the head of

your household planning to

buy a set-top box?”

Base: Those without a set-top

box in the household (n=449)

When I have the money to afford it

49%

Within the next month 26%

In a week or two

4%

In the next few

days 1%

Not sure 21%

“When are you

planning to buy it?”

Base: Those saying that they intend to acquire a set-

top box in the household (n=291)

65% 64%

35% 36%


YES NO

Awareness of Digital Migration Switch-Off

50

One or more of Kenya’s

local channels were off air, 70%

Nothing, 30%

“What change in television

broadcasting did you

notice or hear about earlier

this year?”

Base: All Respondents

(n=1,964)

88%

80%

75%

53%

12%

CITIZEN

KTN

NTV

Q-TV

Incorrect answer

“Which TV channels

were off-air?”

Base: Those aware that any

TV stations were switched-

off (n=1,381)

YES 55%

NO 45%

“Are you able to

view them?”

Base: Those who

mentioned any of the

4 stations that were

switched-off (n=1,265)

78% 66%

22% 34%

Urban (n=729) Rural (n=1,235)

Switch-off Nothing

“Who do you think is responsible for these channels going off?”: by Those Aware of the Analog Switch-Off

51

Base: Those aware of TV stations that were


Jubilee Govt, 40%

CA, 14%

Min.of Information/C.S. Matiangi, 10%

The Media Houses, 7%

The Supreme Court, 1%

Chinese Companies, 1%

DK, 23%

Total Government: 64%

“Who do you think is responsible for these channels going off?”: by Those Aware of the Analog Switch-Off

52



40%

14% 10%

7% 1% 1%

23%

49%

15% 10%

4% 0% 1%

15%

34%

15% 10% 8%

2% 1%

28%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%


Total Government

“What do you think is the main reason this happened?”: by Those Aware of the Analog Digital Switch-Off

53



Financial Gain, 19%

Control of Media, 26%

Both Financial Gain and Control of Media, 13%

DK, 24%

Media Houses Failed to Prepare for Digital

Migration, 17% Political Motivation,

1%

“What do you think is the main reason this happened?”: by Supporters of the Main Political Parties/Coalitions (Among Those Aware of the Analog Digital Switch-Off

54

Base: Those aware of TV stations that were switched-off (n=1,381)

26%

19% 17%

13%

1%

24%

27%

19%

16% 17%

1%

19%

28%

18% 17%

10%

0%

26%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

Control of media Financial Gain Media HousesFailed to Prepare

for DigitalMigration

Both FinancialGain and Control

of Media

PoliticalMotivation

DK


Perceptions of Media vs. Government Responsibility for the Switch-Off: by Those Aware of the Analog Switch-Off

31%

71%

57%

21%

12% 8%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Do you think the media houses that wereswitched-off did enough to prepare for the

digital migration? (n=1,381)

Do you think they should have been givenmore time? (n=1,381)

YES NO Not sure

55

For further information contact:

Dr Tom Wolf

Social Political Consultant

[email protected]

Victor Rateng

Project Manager - Opinion Polls

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mailto:[email protected]

mailto:[email protected]

ipsos kenya spec poll 17 april 2015

News & Politics

stb awareness

corruption awareness

level land

awareness of effort

sample size errormargin

entire sample

sample structure statistics

somalia issues cont