ipsos mori: beyond the bubble: the voters' verdict - conservative party conference 2012

Gideon Skinner, Head of Political Research, Ipsos MORI

Last year we asked: is 2015 in the bag?

But a year is a (very) long time in politics

So what’s changed? And what’s stayed the same?

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General Election

Last year you were broadly holding on to election level support How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow?

Base: c. 1,000 British adults each month through June 2008; c. 500 British adults thereafter Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

37%

13%

35%

UK recession 2010 Q4

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General Election

And did so up until April…

How would you vote if there were a General Election tomorrow?


38%

12%

35%


Euro veto Dec 2011

But then…

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Jan-10

Mar-10

May-10

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41%

13%

30%

2010 General Election

Labour have held an 11 point lead since May



Local elections 2012


Euro veto Dec 2011

10

27%

16%

57%63%

25%

12%

59%22%

19%

2010 voters last year…

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

Voted Tory in 2010

Voted LD in 2010

Voted Labour in 2010


Still Con/Lab/LD and certain to vote Not Con/Lab/LD any more

Still Con/Lab/LD, not certain to vote

Base: 4,164 GB adults 18+, January-April 2011

11

35%

7%

58%

76%

10%

14%

60%13%

27%

2010 voters now…


Still Con/Lab/LD, not certain to vote

Base: 6,043 GB adults 18+, April-September 2012

Voted Tory in 2010

Voted LD in 2010

Voted Labour in 2010


Still Con/Lab/LD and certain to vote Not Con/Lab/LD any more

12

60%13%

27%

Where have Conservative voters gone?


Voted Tory in 2010


Still Con and certain to vote Not Con/Lab/LD any more Still Con, not certain to vote


13 Where have Conservative voters gone?


Voted Tory in 2010


Still Con and certain to vote Not Con/Lab/LD any more Still Con, not certain to vote


To Labour 5% To Liberal Democrats 3% To UKIP 5% To BNP <0.5%

Would not vote/undecided 10%

(Includes those with a voting Intention but not certain to vote)

14 The image of the party has suffered… I am going to read out some things both favourable and unfavourable that have been said about various political parties. Which of these, if any, do you think apply to the…


51%

62%

19%

45%

35%

41%

Out of date

Divided

Keeps its promises

Fit to govern

Has a good team of leaders

Understands the problems facing Britain

Conservative party

Base: 1,006 British adults 18+, 15th – 17th September 2012

-9 -9

-5 -5

+13

+9

15 The image of the party has suffered… I am going to read out some things both favourable and unfavourable that have been said about various political parties. Which of these, if any, do you think apply to the…


43%

31%

18%

65%

66%

14%

21%

26%

42%

44%

45%

18%

49%

66%

26%

40%

33%

55%

51%

29%

29%

62%

65%

19%

45%

35%

41%

Out of date

Looks after the interest of people like me

Extreme

Divided

Will promise anything to win votes

Keeps its promises

Fit to govern

Has a good team of leaders

Understands the problems facing Britain

Conservative party

Labour party

Liberal Democrats


16

Net

sat

isfa

ctio

n

LABOUR: 1997 - 2010

Base: c. 1,000 British adults each month Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

Number of months from new government taking power

Note: Data collected prior to June 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from June 2008 was via telephone

2001 GE

1987 GE

JOHN MAJOR BECOMES PM

CONSERVATIVES: 1979-1997

COALITION: 2010-2012

How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way the government is running the country?

Satisfaction with the government is falling

2005 GE

GORDON BROWN BECOMES PM

1983 GE

1992 GE

17

Net

sat

isfa

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n

How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing his / her job as Prime Minister?

As are Cameron’s ratings…

THATCHER

BLAIR MAJOR BROWN

CAMERON


Number of months from becoming Prime Minister


CLEGG

18


Number of months from becoming Opposition Leader

HAGUE (1997-2001) DUNCAN SMITH (2001-2003)

While Ed’s have steadied How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with the way … is doing his job as leader of the … Party?

CAMERON (2005-2010)

BLAIR (1994-1997)

MILIBAND (2010-2012)

HOWARD (2003-2005)


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19

Who, if anyone, do you think will benefit most from the measures the Chancellor will announce in the Budget next week?

We’re not all in it together any more

8%

2%

4%

50%

18%

17% Those on low incomes

Those on medium incomes

Those on high incomes

No-one will benefit

Budget will affect everyone equally Don’t know

Base: 1,014 British adults 18+, 17th – 19th March 2012 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

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Sep-11

Mar-12

Sep-12

As Labour have regained the lead in key areas of reform Which party do you think has the best policies on health care, the Conservatives, Labour, Liberal Democrats or some other party?


16%

46%

7%

Healthcare -30

-12

-4

-13

21 Some pre-existing negative perceptions have been reinforced

Base: 1,006 British adults 18+, 15th – 17th September 2012 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

Conservative lead = -6

February 2010

Labour

Conservative

Lib Dem

Other

“Which political party, if any, do you think would be the best at looking after the interests of women?”

20%

26%

16%

13%

7%

19%

September 2012

Conservative lead = -22

12%

34%

17%

6%

10%

20%

None

Don’t know

But some things haven’t changed…

23 All the parties struggle to get their point across

To what extent do you agree or disagree with the following statements?


21%

23%

10%

26%

17%

3%

Base: 1,002 British adults 18+, 21st - 23rd April 2012

Tend to disagree

Don’t know

44% 43%

Strongly disagree

Strongly agree

Tend to agree

Neither/nor

I don’t know what the Conservative Party

stands for these days

28%

29% 11%

18%

11% 3%

57%

29%

I don’t know what the Labour Party stands

for these days

35%

29%

9%

14%

9% 4%

64%

23%

I don’t know what the Liberal Democrats

stand for these days

Agree

Disagree

Agree

Disagree

24

Base: representative sample of c.1,000 British adults age 18+ each month, interviewed face-to-face in home Source: Ipsos MORI Issues Index

The economy has been the number 1 issue of concern since 2008 What do you see as the most/other important issues facing Britain today?

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Unemployment

Economy

Europe/EU

25

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Mar-90

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Mar-91

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Sep-12

And you’re still seen as the best party on the economy

Which party do you think has the best policies on the economy, the Conservatives, Labour, Liberal Democrats or some other party?


30% 25%

7%

Although: Unemployment: 13 points behind Labour

Our politician of 2011…

27

59%

57%

54%

54%

46%

38%

37%

35%

34%

34%

31%

26%

15%

17%

18%

22%26%

29%

35%

30%

16%

21%

37%

36%

Cameron

Eloquent

Is a good person

Prime Ministerial

Likeable

Understands people like me

Tough enough for the job of PM

Represents Britain

In your opinion, which party leader, David Cameron or Ed Miliband, is stronger on each of the following?


Smart enough for the job of PM

Has the right values

Will protect British jobs

A man of faith

Would be fun to meet in person

Miliband


…is still seen as the better leader

Food for thought

1. The party has taken a knock this year – and among all voters, not in one direction above all others

2. David Cameron is still an asset (especially when compared to Ed Miliband – at least until before conferences)

3. The economy, the economy, the economy…

ipsos mori: beyond the bubble: the voters' verdict - conservative party conference 2012

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