ipsos mori political monitor: august 2016
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Document Name Here | Month 2016 | Version 1 | Public | Internal Use Only | Confidential | Strictly Confidential (DELETE CLASSIFICATION)
© 2016 Ipsos. All rights reserved. Contains Ipsos' Confidential and Proprietary information
and may not be disclosed or reproduced without the prior written consent of Ipsos.
1
Ipsos MORIAugust 2016 POLITICAL MONITOR
Document Name Here | Month 2016 | Version 1 | Public | Internal Use Only | Confidential | Strictly Confidential (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) 2
VOTING
INTENTIONS
3Political Monitor | August 2016 | Final | Public
HOW WOULD YOU VOTE IF THERE WERE A GENERAL ELECTION TOMORROW?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Base: 1,017 British adults 18+, 13th – 15th August 2016 ; Headline Voting Intention: all 9/10 certain to vote and always/usually/it depends
vote in General Elections = 772. Headline voting intention is based on a method that would have given most accurate results in the 2015
GE; this is an interim measure whilst our internal review is carried out.
Voting Intention
41%
36%
7%
4%
7%5%
ALL GIVING A VOTING INTENTION HEADLINE VOTING INTENTION
CONSERVATIVE LEAD = +5 CONSERVATIVE LEAD = +11
CONSERVATIVE
LABOUR
UKIP
GREEN
LIB DEM
OTHER
45%
34%
6%
4%
7%5%
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SATISFACTION WITH THE
GOVERNMENT AND
PARTY LEADERS
5Political Monitor | August 2016 | Final | Public
22%
30%
48%
ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY…. IS RUNNING THE COUNTRY / DOING HIS/HER JOB
AS PRIME MINISTER /LEADER OF THE LABOUR PARTY/LEADER OF THE LIBERAL DEMOCRATS ?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,017 British adults 18+, 13th – 15th August 2016 . Swing is calculated as the average of change in % “satisfied” and % “dissatisfied
Satisfaction with leaders and the Government
41%
45%
14%
+4%swing from July 2016
+4%swing from July 2016
+20.5%swing from July 2016
+35 Net -33 Net -8 Net -4 Net
SATISFIED 54% SATISFIED 25% SATISFIED 22% SATISFIED 41%
DISSATISFIED 19% DISSATISFIED 58% DISSATISFIED 30% DISSATISFIED 45%
54%
19%
27% 25%
58%
17%
Theresa May Jeremy Corbyn Tim Farron The Government
6Political Monitor | August 2016 | Final | Public
HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY … IS DOING HIS/HER JOB AS … ?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: c.1,000 British adults each month
Satisfaction with Party leaders Sept 2015 – August’16
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Sep
15
Oct
15
No
v 1
5
Dec
15
Jan
16
Feb
16
Mar
16
Ap
r 16
May 1
6
Ju
n 1
6
Ju
l 16
Au
g 1
6
MAY CORBYN FARRON
54%
25%
22%
7Political Monitor | August 2016 | Final | Public
HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY … IS DOING HIS/HER JOB AS PRIME
MINISTER?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: c.1,000 British adults each month
Net satisfaction with Prime Ministers
MAY CAMERON BROWN MAJOR BLAIR THATCHER
Net
sati
sfact
ion
NUMBER OF MONTHS FROM BECOMING PRIME MINISTER
Note: Data collected prior to February 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from February 2008 was via telephone
May
8Political Monitor | August 2016 | Final | Public
HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY … IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF THE …
PARTY?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: c.1,000 British adults each month
Net satisfaction with Opposition Leaders (1994 – 2016)
Note: Data collected prior to February 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from February 2008 was via telephone
Number of months from becoming Opposition Leader
Net
sati
sfact
ion
HOWARD BLAIR (94-97) DUNCAN SMITH (01-03) MILIBAND (10-15) CAMERON (05-10) HAGUE (97-01) CORBYN (15-present)
9Political Monitor | August 2016 | Final | Public
ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY THERESA MAY IS DOING HER JOB AS PRIME
MINISTER?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,017 British adults 18+, 13th – 15th August 2016 (368 Con supporters)
Theresa May (satisfaction)
54%
19%
27%
August 2016 (All) August 2016 (Conservative supporters)
SATISFIED 54%
DISSATISFIED 19%
DON’T KNOW 27%
Net = +35
76%
4%
20%
SATISFIED 76%
DISSATISFIED 4%
DON’T KNOW 20%
Net = +72
10Political Monitor | August 2016 | Final | Public
25%
58%
17%
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Oct
-15
No
v-1
5
Dec-
15
Jan
-16
Feb
-16
Mar-
16
Ap
rl-1
6
May-1
6
Jun
-16
Jul-
16
Au
g-1
6
SATISFIED 25%
DISSATISFIED 58%
DON’T KNOW 17%
Net = -33
ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY JEREMY CORBYN IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF
THE LABOUR PARTY?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,017 British adults 18+, 13th – 15th August 2016
Jeremy Corbyn (satisfaction)
August 2016 September 2015 – August 2016
Satisfied
Dissatisfied
11Political Monitor | August 2016 | Final | Public
39%
47%
14%
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Sep
-15
Oct
-15
No
v-1
5
Dec-
15
Jan
-16
Feb
-16
Mar-
16
Ap
rl-1
6
May-1
6
Jun
-16
Jul-
16
Au
g-1
6
SATISFIED 39%
DISSATISFIED 47%
DON’T KNOW 14%
Net = -8
ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY JEREMY CORBYN IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF
THE LABOUR PARTY?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 301 Labour supporters 18+, 13th – 15th August 2016
Jeremy Corbyn (satisfaction amongst Labour supporters)
August 2016 September 2015 – August 2016
Satisfied
Dissatisfied
12Political Monitor | August 2016 | Final | Public
22%
30%
48%
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Sep
-15
Oct
-15
No
v-1
5
Dec-
15
Jan
-16
Feb
-16
Mar-
16
Ap
rl-1
6
May-1
6
Jun
-16
Jul-
16
Au
g-1
6
SATISFIED 22%
DISSATISFIED 30%
DON’T KNOW 48%
Net = -8
ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY TIM FARRON IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF THE
LIBERAL DEMOCRATS?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,017 British adults 18+, 13th – 15th August 2016
Tim Farron (satisfaction)
August 2016 September 2015 – August 2016
Satisfied
Dissatisfied
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ECONOMIC
OPTIMISM
14Political Monitor | August 2016 | Final | Public
28%
22%
43%
6%
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Jun
-04
Dec-
04
Jun
-05
Jan
-06
Jul-
06
Ap
r-07
Oct
-07
May-0
8
No
v-0
8
May-0
9
No
v-0
9
May-1
0
Dec-
10
Jun
-11
Dec-
11
Jun
-12
Dec-
12
Jun
-13
Dec-
13
Jun
-14
Dec-
14
Jun
-15
Jan
-16
Jul-
16
IMPROVE 28%
STAY THE SAME 22%
GET WORSE 43%
DON’T KNOW 6%
EOI = -15
DO YOU THINK THAT THE GENERAL ECONOMIC CONDITION OF THE COUNTRY WILL IMPROVE, STAY THE
SAME OR GET WORSE OVER THE NEXT 12 MONTHS?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,017 British adults 18+, 13th – 15th August 2016
Economic Optimism Index
August 2016
15Political Monitor | August 2016 | Final | Public
DO YOU THINK THAT THE GENERAL ECONOMIC CONDITION OF THE COUNTRY WILL IMPROVE, STAY THE
SAME OR GET WORSE OVER THE NEXT 12 MONTHS?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: c.1,000 British adults each month
The Ipsos MORI Economic Optimism Index
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
Jan
1997
Jun
1997
No
v 1
997
Ap
r 1998
Sep
1998
Feb
1999
Jul 1999
Dec
1999
May 2
000
Oct
2000
Mar
2001
Au
g 2
001
Jan
2002
Jun
2002
No
v 2
002
Ap
r 2003
Sep
2003
Feb
2004
Jul 2004
Dec
2004
May 2
005
Oct
2005
Mar
2006
Au
g 2
006
Jan
2007
Jun
2007
No
v 2
007
Ap
r 2008
Sep
2008
Feb
2009
Jul 2009
Dec
2009
May 2
010
Oct
2010
Mar
2011
Au
g 2
011
Jan
2012
Jun
2012
No
v 2
012
Ap
r 2013
Sep
2013
Feb
2014
Jul 2014
Dec
2014
May 2
015
Oct
2015
Mar
2016
Au
g 2
016
-15
16Political Monitor | August 2016 | Final | Public
AS YOU WILL KNOW, IN JUNE THE UNITED KINGDOM VOTED TO LEAVE THE EUROPEAN UNION IN A REFERENDUM.
WOULD YOU SAY YOU FEEL MORE OR LESS CONFIDENT ABOUT THE PROSPECTS FOR YOUR OWN PERSONAL FINANCIAL
SITUATION OVER THE NEXT FIVE YEARS THAN IF THE UK HAD VOTED TO REMAIN, OR HAS IT MADE NO DIFFERENCE?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase:; 1,017 British adults 18+, 13th – 15th August 2016
Confidence in personal finances after EU referendum
13
8
13
11
5
10
13
9
14
13
3
11
44
26
42
28
30
34
12
25
12
20
27
19
15
29
15
22
34
23
3
4
4
6
4
C2DE
ABC1
55+
35-54
18-34
All
MUCH MORE
CONFIDENT
A LITTLE MORE
CONFIDENT NO DIFFERENT
A LITTLE LESS
CONFIDENT
MUCH LESS
CONFIDENT DON’T KNOW
Document Name Here | Month 2016 | Version 1 | Public | Internal Use Only | Confidential | Strictly Confidential (DELETE CLASSIFICATION)
© 2016 Ipsos. All rights reserved. Contains Ipsos' Confidential and Proprietary information
and may not be disclosed or reproduced without the prior written consent of Ipsos.
17
August 2016POLITICAL MONITOR