ipaa mid-year meeting colorado springs, colorado june 14, 2004
DESCRIPTION
IPAA Mid-Year Meeting Colorado Springs, Colorado June 14, 2004. Annual Revenue (2003) $12.6 B Total Assets (3/31/04) $2.2 B Enterprise Value $3.0 B Equity Market Cap. $2.1 B 2003 Fortune 500 Rank 155 # Unitholders (approx.) 30,000. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
IPAA Mid-Year MeetingIPAA Mid-Year MeetingColorado Springs, ColoradoColorado Springs, Colorado
June 14, 2004June 14, 2004
--22----22--
Plains All American Profile Plains All American Profile (NYSE: PAA)(NYSE: PAA)
Annual Revenue Annual Revenue (2003)(2003) $12.6 B $12.6 B Total Assets Total Assets (3/31/04)(3/31/04) $2.2 B $2.2 B Enterprise Value Enterprise Value $3.0 B $3.0 B Equity Market Cap.Equity Market Cap. $2.1 B $2.1 B 2003 Fortune 500 Rank 1552003 Fortune 500 Rank 155 # Unitholders (approx.) 30,000# Unitholders (approx.) 30,000
Aggregate SizeAggregate Size
Assets:Assets: Pipelines Pipelines (miles)(miles) 14,000+ 14,000+ Tankage Tankage (MMbbls.)(MMbbls.) 36.6 36.6 Truck Fleet Truck Fleet (units)(units) +/- 500 +/- 500
Crude handledCrude handled (MMbpd)(MMbpd) 2.4 2.4 Approx. number of gradesApprox. number of grades
& varieties handled& varieties handled 50+ 50+
Geographic footprint:Geographic footprint: USA USA (states)(states) +/- 40 +/- 40 Canada Canada (provinces)(provinces) 5 5 EmployeesEmployees +/- 2,000+/- 2,000
Operational MetricsOperational Metrics
--33----33--
PAA’s Role in the Crude Oil Distribution ChainPAA’s Role in the Crude Oil Distribution Chain
ProducersProducers RefinersRefiners
Plains All American’s OperationsPlains All American’s Operations
Gathering, Marketing, Terminalling,Storage and Pipelines
Truck
Terminal / Storage / ExchangeLocation
Barge
Pipeline
Pipeline Gathering Injection Station
Pipeline
--44----44--
PAA’s Principal Business StrategyPAA’s Principal Business Strategy
Provide efficient solutions to the numerous complexities inherent in the crude oil industry and the regional crude oil supply and demand imbalances that exist in the U.S. and Canada……..
Paraphrased Excerpt
Is the U.S. Running Out of Oil?
--66----66--
The United States: Comprises < 5% of World Population Generates ~ 10% of World Petroleum Production Consumes ~ 25% of World Petroleum Production Currently Imports ~62% of Its’ Daily Crude Oil
Consumption
News Flash
Is the U.S. Running Out of Oil?World
Accordingly, in practical terms, the U. S. issue is already resolved.
The remaining question is:
--88----88--
A Popular Topic, but No Clear Public Consensus
“We’re draining our reserves dry.”
“Enough oil to last for 500 years.”
Houston Chronicle
May 30, 2004
Llewellyn King
Chairman & CEO
King Publishing Co.
Publisher for:
White House Weekly
& Energy Daily
Houston Chronicle
May 30, 2004
H. Sterling Burnett
Senior Fellow
National Center for
Policy Analysis
--99----99--
GLA Working Hypothesis:GLA Working Hypothesis:
Why Not? Free markets work. Changing unit economics impact both supply
and demand. There are significant, recoverable crude oil
resources remaining – at the right price.
NONO
--1010----1010--
Free Markets At Work:Free Markets At Work:
Impact of Rising Prices
•Conservation & Demand destruction
•Fuel switching
•Reserve & production expansion
•Increase in service costs
•Innovation & technology are rewarded ($$$)
Impact of Low Prices
•Unrestrained use & Demand stimulation
•Fuel switching
•Reserve & production contraction
•Pressure on service costs
•Low cost operators are rewarded ($$$) & technology advances
Sample Factors
--1111----1111--
Elasticity of Oil Supply and Demand
1012141618202224
$0.00$5.00$10.00$15.00$20.00$25.00$30.00$35.00$40.00
Oil Consumption MMbls/d $/bbl
United States Oil Consumption & Commodity PricesUnited States Oil Consumption & Commodity Prices
Demand
Demand Demand
Demand
Price
Price
Pri
ce-
Pri
ce-
Texas Production
Regulated
Texas Production
Regulated
Arab Embargo &U.S. Price Regulated
Arab Embargo &U.S. Price Regulated
Full DeregulationFull Deregulation
Sources: EIA, BP, WTRG, Bloomberg, various.Sources: EIA, BP, WTRG, Bloomberg, various.
Pri
ceP
rice
Demand
Demand
Pri
ceP
rice
?
--1212----1212--
Audience Participation
Conservation Demand Destruction Lottery Tickets
The Forecasts of Today Seldom Become the Reality of
Tomorrow
--1414----1414--
Accuracy of the Market’s Vision on Prices
$10.00
$15.00
$20.00
$25.00
$30.00
$35.00
$40.00
$45.00Actual Price
Forward Curve
--1515----1515--
250270290310330350370
Jan-
93Se
p-93
May
-94
Jan-
95Se
p-95
May
-96
Jan-
97Se
p-97
May
-98
Jan-
99Se
p-99
May
-00
1-Ja
n1-
Sep
May
-02
Jan-
03Se
p-03
May
-04
mm
bls
$0.00$5.00$10.00$15.00$20.00$25.00$30.00$35.00$40.00
$/bo
Inventory Oil Price Source: BloombergSource: Bloomberg
U.S. Crude Oil Inventory vs Oil Price(The Last 10+ years)
Economic Jaws of Inventory & Price – Leading Indicator or Symptomatic Result?
--1616----1616--
OK Greg, if it is that simple, why is it so hard to drive a consensus on the subject?
Economic theories (and realities) are simple, but the inner workings of the
oil industry are very complex.
How Complicated is the U.S. Crude Oil Industry?
You be the judge.
--1919----1919--
Oil Imports
9.6
Domestic
Production
5.7
Oil Exports
.001
Stocks& Net
Loss/Gain(0.1)
Refined Products
Imports Exports
2.6 1.0
Other Liquids
0.1
NGPLDirect Use& Blends
0.7
Residential
0.8
Commercial &
Industrial 5.2
Transportation 13.3
ElectricPower0.5
Crude Oil
Refinery Input15.3
NGPLRefinery
Input0.4
Other Liquids
0.9
TotalRefinery
Input16.6
ProcessingGain1.0
Output
17.6
Aggregate Output
Mogas 44%
Distillate 20%
LPG 10%
Jet 8%
Resid 4%
Other 14%
The U.S. Demand Side of The EquationVolumes Approximate 2003 Daily Average (MMBLS) (1)
(1) Source: EIA; BP; GLA estimates
--2020----2020--
Additional Complicating Factors Affecting Supply, Demand & Product Slate
Changes in natural gas frac spreads affect availability of blendstock and raw products
Seasonality (changing feedstock demands) Weather Transportation & scheduling logistics Competing fuels (natural gas, coal, etc.) Restrictions on product specifications Product imports/exports Multiple varieties of crude Metals content Emmission issues Scheduled/Unscheduled downtime Etc., etc., etc.
--2121----2121--
Additional Complicating Factors Affecting Supply, Demand & Product Slate
Changes in natural gas frac spreads affect availability of blendstock and raw products
Seasonality (changing feedstock demands) Weather Transportation & scheduling logistics Competing fuels (natural gas, coal, etc.) Restrictions on product specifications Product imports/exports Multiple varieties of crude Metals content Emmission issues Scheduled/Unscheduled downtime Etc., etc., etc.
Two areas of
Focus.
--2222----2222--
Getting 9.6 mmb/d of Oil to The U.S.
Source: BP
--2323----2323--
V
IVII
I
III
(2.8 mmb/d)
(3.9 mmb/d)
(1.5 mmb/d)(0.2 mmb/d)
(0.8 mmb/d)
Petroleum Administration Defense Districts
All Regions are Supply Deficient, but the Landlocked PADD II Region is the Focus Area for Transportation
mmb/d
Total Refinery Inputs 15.3
Domestic Production 5.7
Reliance on Imports 9.6
--2424----2424--
U.S. Pipeline Infrastructure Designed to Displace U.S. Pipeline Infrastructure Designed to Displace Crude to Meet PADD II DemandCrude to Meet PADD II Demand
V
IVII
I
III
Inter-PADD Movements Driven Primarily by Economics of:
•Transportation differentials
•Quality issues (inter-grade surplus/shortage & refinery constraints)
--2525----2525--
PADD II Demand to Be Satisfied by Imports from Canada, Cushing & Gulf Coast
V
IV II
I
III
BP PipelineBP PipelinePAA Basin PipelinePAA Basin Pipeline
Link PipelineLink Pipeline
Seaway PipelineSeaway Pipeline
BP PipelineBP Pipeline
Shell (W. Tulsa) PipelineShell (W. Tulsa) Pipeline
Cush-Po PipelineCush-Po Pipeline
Mid-Continent PipelineMid-Continent Pipeline
Osage PipelineOsage Pipeline
Ozark PipelineOzark Pipeline
Phillips Borger PipelinePhillips Borger Pipeline
PAA Red River PipelinePAA Red River Pipeline
Mid-Continent (Sun) PipelineMid-Continent (Sun) Pipeline
STG PipelineSTG PipelineCapline Pipeline
System
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
SupplySupplyShortfall 2.8 MMbblsShortfall 2.8 MMbbls
Refinery Inputs: 3.3 MMbblsRefinery Inputs: 3.3 MMbbls
Production: .46 MMbblsProduction: .46 MMbbls
Source: Energy Information Administration
PADD II Supply ShortfallPADD II Supply Shortfall(Millions of Barrels per Day)(Millions of Barrels per Day)
Gulf of Mexico
Foreign Imports
--2626----2626--
Multiple Crude Grades Add to Complexity Multiple Crude Grades Add to Complexity
DomesticSweet Sour
Spraberry W. Tx. SourScurry PoseidonW. Tx. Int. Mars BlendOkla. Sweet Okla. SourKansas Sweet West Coast OCSN. TX Sweet SunnilandEast TX Sweet W. Central TXLight LA Sweet Quitman SourHeavy LA Sweet San Joaquin Light
San Joaquin HeavyEugene IslandBonita
ForeignSweet Sour
Bonny Light Mesa 30Brent OrienteBrass River MayaOseburg Arab MediumGullfaks FurielCano Limon Leona 24Cuisana Arab HeavyForties Mesa 28
Lago CincoOlmecaBasrahBCF 17
--2727----2727--
Not All Crude Oil Is Equal
$0.00
$10.00
$20.00
$30.00
$40.00
$50.00
1 bbl WTI 1 bbl Arab Medium
Fuel OilDistillateGasoline
Note: Values shown are approximate based on estimated yields and Platts’ indicated values on June 8, 2004.
45%
45%
10%
30%
38%
32%
$43. 31$39.59
Gross Product Value in $/bbl
--2828----2828--
Variations in Selected Domestic Differentials to WTI
-$4.00
-$3.00
-$2.00
-$1.00
$0.00
$1.00
MIDLAND WTI LLS HLS WTS EIC BONITO POS MARS
--2929----2929--
Variations in Selected Canadian Differentials to WTI
-$4.00-$2.00$0.00$2.00$4.00$6.00$8.00
$10.00$12.00$14.00
May
-02Ju
n-02
Jul-0
2Au
g-02
Sep-
02Oc
t-02
Nov-0
2De
c-02
Jan-
03Fe
b-03
Mar
-03Ap
r-03
May
-03Ju
n-03
Jul-0
3Au
g-03
Sep-
03Oc
t-03
Nov-0
3De
c-03
Jan-
04Fe
b-04
Mar
-04Ap
r-04
--3030----3030--
Example of an Impending Complication:Storm Clouds Forming or Light Shower?
Situation:
A. U.S. market is currently balanced with foreign waterborne imports.
B. Canada is projected to ramp up oil sands production ~500,000 b/d+
C. U.S. GOM is projected to ramp up deepwater production ~500,000 b/d+
D. U.S. demand is not projected to simultaneously grow by 1 million b/d.
E. Mideast Politcs are highly unstable.
--3131----3131--
Possible Outcomes:
1. The U.S. begins exporting over 500,000 b/d.
2. U.S. producers shut-in over 500,000 b/d or reduce drilling activities (at ~ $40.00/bo) to make room for incremental volumes.
3. Foreign sources of waterborne imports happily withdraw 500,000 b/d from the market (thus losing market share in the world’s most critical market?).
4. Inventories begin to build; price pressure hits the U.S. market and competition among grades and qualities intensifies.
5. Something unexpected happens to balance the market (strike, Mideast disturbance, explosion in demand, etc.)
6. Some combination of all of the foregoing
Example of an Impending Complication:Storm Clouds Forming or Light Shower? Continued.
Oil Industry Prediction (Challenge):
“We are going to be living in interesting times.”
Chinese Proverb (Curse):
“May you live in interesting times.”
--3333----3333--
GLA View is that both statements are correct,
“We’re draining our reserves dry.”
Houston Chronicle
May 30, 2004
Llewellyn King
Chairman & CEO
King Publishing Co.
Publisher for:
White House Weekly
& Energy Daily
“Enough oil to last for 500 years .”
Houston Chronicle
May 30, 2004
H. Sterling Burnett
Senior Fellow
National Center for
Policy Analysis
CheapGLA Edit
^
, if the price is high enough.
GLA Edit
^
with slight editing….
Not any time soon…
…,but it could get REAL expensive.
Is the U.S. Running Out of Oil?World
NYSE: PAANYSE: PAANYSE: PAANYSE: PAA
Except for the historical information contained herein, the matters discussed in this presentation are forward-looking statements that include risks and uncertainties. These risks and uncertainties include, among other things, market conditions, governmental regulations and other factors discussed in Plains All American Pipeline, L.P.’s filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission.
Except for the historical information contained herein, the matters discussed in this presentation are forward-looking statements that include risks and uncertainties. These risks and uncertainties include, among other things, market conditions, governmental regulations and other factors discussed in Plains All American Pipeline, L.P.’s filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission.