ipaa mid-year meeting colorado springs, colorado june 14, 2004

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IPAA Mid-Year Meeting IPAA Mid-Year Meeting Colorado Springs, Colorado Colorado Springs, Colorado June 14, 2004 June 14, 2004

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IPAA Mid-Year Meeting Colorado Springs, Colorado June 14, 2004. Annual Revenue (2003) $12.6 B Total Assets (3/31/04) $2.2 B Enterprise Value $3.0 B Equity Market Cap. $2.1 B 2003 Fortune 500 Rank 155 # Unitholders (approx.) 30,000. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Page 1: IPAA Mid-Year Meeting Colorado Springs, Colorado June 14, 2004

IPAA Mid-Year MeetingIPAA Mid-Year MeetingColorado Springs, ColoradoColorado Springs, Colorado

June 14, 2004June 14, 2004

Page 2: IPAA Mid-Year Meeting Colorado Springs, Colorado June 14, 2004

--22----22--

Plains All American Profile Plains All American Profile (NYSE: PAA)(NYSE: PAA)

Annual Revenue Annual Revenue (2003)(2003) $12.6 B $12.6 B Total Assets Total Assets (3/31/04)(3/31/04) $2.2 B $2.2 B Enterprise Value Enterprise Value $3.0 B $3.0 B Equity Market Cap.Equity Market Cap. $2.1 B $2.1 B 2003 Fortune 500 Rank 1552003 Fortune 500 Rank 155 # Unitholders (approx.) 30,000# Unitholders (approx.) 30,000

Aggregate SizeAggregate Size

Assets:Assets: Pipelines Pipelines (miles)(miles) 14,000+ 14,000+ Tankage Tankage (MMbbls.)(MMbbls.) 36.6 36.6 Truck Fleet Truck Fleet (units)(units) +/- 500 +/- 500

Crude handledCrude handled (MMbpd)(MMbpd) 2.4 2.4 Approx. number of gradesApprox. number of grades

& varieties handled& varieties handled 50+ 50+

Geographic footprint:Geographic footprint: USA USA (states)(states) +/- 40 +/- 40 Canada Canada (provinces)(provinces) 5 5 EmployeesEmployees +/- 2,000+/- 2,000

Operational MetricsOperational Metrics

Page 3: IPAA Mid-Year Meeting Colorado Springs, Colorado June 14, 2004

--33----33--

PAA’s Role in the Crude Oil Distribution ChainPAA’s Role in the Crude Oil Distribution Chain

ProducersProducers RefinersRefiners

Plains All American’s OperationsPlains All American’s Operations

Gathering, Marketing, Terminalling,Storage and Pipelines

Truck

Terminal / Storage / ExchangeLocation

Barge

Pipeline

Pipeline Gathering Injection Station

Pipeline

Page 4: IPAA Mid-Year Meeting Colorado Springs, Colorado June 14, 2004

--44----44--

PAA’s Principal Business StrategyPAA’s Principal Business Strategy

Provide efficient solutions to the numerous complexities inherent in the crude oil industry and the regional crude oil supply and demand imbalances that exist in the U.S. and Canada……..

Paraphrased Excerpt

Page 5: IPAA Mid-Year Meeting Colorado Springs, Colorado June 14, 2004

Is the U.S. Running Out of Oil?

Page 6: IPAA Mid-Year Meeting Colorado Springs, Colorado June 14, 2004

--66----66--

The United States: Comprises < 5% of World Population Generates ~ 10% of World Petroleum Production Consumes ~ 25% of World Petroleum Production Currently Imports ~62% of Its’ Daily Crude Oil

Consumption

News Flash

Page 7: IPAA Mid-Year Meeting Colorado Springs, Colorado June 14, 2004

Is the U.S. Running Out of Oil?World

Accordingly, in practical terms, the U. S. issue is already resolved.

The remaining question is:

Page 8: IPAA Mid-Year Meeting Colorado Springs, Colorado June 14, 2004

--88----88--

A Popular Topic, but No Clear Public Consensus

“We’re draining our reserves dry.”

“Enough oil to last for 500 years.”

Houston Chronicle

May 30, 2004

Llewellyn King

Chairman & CEO

King Publishing Co.

Publisher for:

White House Weekly

& Energy Daily

Houston Chronicle

May 30, 2004

H. Sterling Burnett

Senior Fellow

National Center for

Policy Analysis

Page 9: IPAA Mid-Year Meeting Colorado Springs, Colorado June 14, 2004

--99----99--

GLA Working Hypothesis:GLA Working Hypothesis:

Why Not? Free markets work. Changing unit economics impact both supply

and demand. There are significant, recoverable crude oil

resources remaining – at the right price.

NONO

Page 10: IPAA Mid-Year Meeting Colorado Springs, Colorado June 14, 2004

--1010----1010--

Free Markets At Work:Free Markets At Work:

Impact of Rising Prices

•Conservation & Demand destruction

•Fuel switching

•Reserve & production expansion

•Increase in service costs

•Innovation & technology are rewarded ($$$)

Impact of Low Prices

•Unrestrained use & Demand stimulation

•Fuel switching

•Reserve & production contraction

•Pressure on service costs

•Low cost operators are rewarded ($$$) & technology advances

Sample Factors

Page 11: IPAA Mid-Year Meeting Colorado Springs, Colorado June 14, 2004

--1111----1111--

Elasticity of Oil Supply and Demand

1012141618202224

$0.00$5.00$10.00$15.00$20.00$25.00$30.00$35.00$40.00

Oil Consumption MMbls/d $/bbl

United States Oil Consumption & Commodity PricesUnited States Oil Consumption & Commodity Prices

Demand

Demand Demand

Demand

Price

Price

Pri

ce-

Pri

ce-

Texas Production

Regulated

Texas Production

Regulated

Arab Embargo &U.S. Price Regulated

Arab Embargo &U.S. Price Regulated

Full DeregulationFull Deregulation

Sources: EIA, BP, WTRG, Bloomberg, various.Sources: EIA, BP, WTRG, Bloomberg, various.

Pri

ceP

rice

Demand

Demand

Pri

ceP

rice

?

Page 12: IPAA Mid-Year Meeting Colorado Springs, Colorado June 14, 2004

--1212----1212--

Audience Participation

Conservation Demand Destruction Lottery Tickets

Page 13: IPAA Mid-Year Meeting Colorado Springs, Colorado June 14, 2004

The Forecasts of Today Seldom Become the Reality of

Tomorrow

Page 14: IPAA Mid-Year Meeting Colorado Springs, Colorado June 14, 2004

--1414----1414--

Accuracy of the Market’s Vision on Prices

$10.00

$15.00

$20.00

$25.00

$30.00

$35.00

$40.00

$45.00Actual Price

Forward Curve

Page 15: IPAA Mid-Year Meeting Colorado Springs, Colorado June 14, 2004

--1515----1515--

250270290310330350370

Jan-

93Se

p-93

May

-94

Jan-

95Se

p-95

May

-96

Jan-

97Se

p-97

May

-98

Jan-

99Se

p-99

May

-00

1-Ja

n1-

Sep

May

-02

Jan-

03Se

p-03

May

-04

mm

bls

$0.00$5.00$10.00$15.00$20.00$25.00$30.00$35.00$40.00

$/bo

Inventory Oil Price Source: BloombergSource: Bloomberg

U.S. Crude Oil Inventory vs Oil Price(The Last 10+ years)

Economic Jaws of Inventory & Price – Leading Indicator or Symptomatic Result?

Page 16: IPAA Mid-Year Meeting Colorado Springs, Colorado June 14, 2004

--1616----1616--

Page 17: IPAA Mid-Year Meeting Colorado Springs, Colorado June 14, 2004

OK Greg, if it is that simple, why is it so hard to drive a consensus on the subject?

Economic theories (and realities) are simple, but the inner workings of the

oil industry are very complex.

Page 18: IPAA Mid-Year Meeting Colorado Springs, Colorado June 14, 2004

How Complicated is the U.S. Crude Oil Industry?

You be the judge.

Page 19: IPAA Mid-Year Meeting Colorado Springs, Colorado June 14, 2004

--1919----1919--

Oil Imports

9.6

Domestic

Production

5.7

Oil Exports

.001

Stocks& Net

Loss/Gain(0.1)

Refined Products

Imports Exports

2.6 1.0

Other Liquids

0.1

NGPLDirect Use& Blends

0.7

Residential

0.8

Commercial &

Industrial 5.2

Transportation 13.3

ElectricPower0.5

Crude Oil

Refinery Input15.3

NGPLRefinery

Input0.4

Other Liquids

0.9

TotalRefinery

Input16.6

ProcessingGain1.0

Output

17.6

Aggregate Output

Mogas 44%

Distillate 20%

LPG 10%

Jet 8%

Resid 4%

Other 14%

The U.S. Demand Side of The EquationVolumes Approximate 2003 Daily Average (MMBLS) (1)

(1) Source: EIA; BP; GLA estimates

Page 20: IPAA Mid-Year Meeting Colorado Springs, Colorado June 14, 2004

--2020----2020--

Additional Complicating Factors Affecting Supply, Demand & Product Slate

Changes in natural gas frac spreads affect availability of blendstock and raw products

Seasonality (changing feedstock demands) Weather Transportation & scheduling logistics Competing fuels (natural gas, coal, etc.) Restrictions on product specifications Product imports/exports Multiple varieties of crude Metals content Emmission issues Scheduled/Unscheduled downtime Etc., etc., etc.

Page 21: IPAA Mid-Year Meeting Colorado Springs, Colorado June 14, 2004

--2121----2121--

Additional Complicating Factors Affecting Supply, Demand & Product Slate

Changes in natural gas frac spreads affect availability of blendstock and raw products

Seasonality (changing feedstock demands) Weather Transportation & scheduling logistics Competing fuels (natural gas, coal, etc.) Restrictions on product specifications Product imports/exports Multiple varieties of crude Metals content Emmission issues Scheduled/Unscheduled downtime Etc., etc., etc.

Two areas of

Focus.

Page 22: IPAA Mid-Year Meeting Colorado Springs, Colorado June 14, 2004

--2222----2222--

Getting 9.6 mmb/d of Oil to The U.S.

Source: BP

Page 23: IPAA Mid-Year Meeting Colorado Springs, Colorado June 14, 2004

--2323----2323--

V

IVII

I

III

(2.8 mmb/d)

(3.9 mmb/d)

(1.5 mmb/d)(0.2 mmb/d)

(0.8 mmb/d)

Petroleum Administration Defense Districts

All Regions are Supply Deficient, but the Landlocked PADD II Region is the Focus Area for Transportation

mmb/d

Total Refinery Inputs 15.3

Domestic Production 5.7

Reliance on Imports 9.6

Page 24: IPAA Mid-Year Meeting Colorado Springs, Colorado June 14, 2004

--2424----2424--

U.S. Pipeline Infrastructure Designed to Displace U.S. Pipeline Infrastructure Designed to Displace Crude to Meet PADD II DemandCrude to Meet PADD II Demand

V

IVII

I

III

Inter-PADD Movements Driven Primarily by Economics of:

•Transportation differentials

•Quality issues (inter-grade surplus/shortage & refinery constraints)

Page 25: IPAA Mid-Year Meeting Colorado Springs, Colorado June 14, 2004

--2525----2525--

PADD II Demand to Be Satisfied by Imports from Canada, Cushing & Gulf Coast

V

IV II

I

III

BP PipelineBP PipelinePAA Basin PipelinePAA Basin Pipeline

Link PipelineLink Pipeline

Seaway PipelineSeaway Pipeline

BP PipelineBP Pipeline

Shell (W. Tulsa) PipelineShell (W. Tulsa) Pipeline

Cush-Po PipelineCush-Po Pipeline

Mid-Continent PipelineMid-Continent Pipeline

Osage PipelineOsage Pipeline

Ozark PipelineOzark Pipeline

Phillips Borger PipelinePhillips Borger Pipeline

PAA Red River PipelinePAA Red River Pipeline

Mid-Continent (Sun) PipelineMid-Continent (Sun) Pipeline

STG PipelineSTG PipelineCapline Pipeline

System

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

SupplySupplyShortfall 2.8 MMbblsShortfall 2.8 MMbbls

Refinery Inputs: 3.3 MMbblsRefinery Inputs: 3.3 MMbbls

Production: .46 MMbblsProduction: .46 MMbbls

Source: Energy Information Administration

PADD II Supply ShortfallPADD II Supply Shortfall(Millions of Barrels per Day)(Millions of Barrels per Day)

Gulf of Mexico

Foreign Imports

Page 26: IPAA Mid-Year Meeting Colorado Springs, Colorado June 14, 2004

--2626----2626--

Multiple Crude Grades Add to Complexity Multiple Crude Grades Add to Complexity

DomesticSweet Sour

Spraberry W. Tx. SourScurry PoseidonW. Tx. Int. Mars BlendOkla. Sweet Okla. SourKansas Sweet West Coast OCSN. TX Sweet SunnilandEast TX Sweet W. Central TXLight LA Sweet Quitman SourHeavy LA Sweet San Joaquin Light

San Joaquin HeavyEugene IslandBonita

ForeignSweet Sour

Bonny Light Mesa 30Brent OrienteBrass River MayaOseburg Arab MediumGullfaks FurielCano Limon Leona 24Cuisana Arab HeavyForties Mesa 28

Lago CincoOlmecaBasrahBCF 17

Page 27: IPAA Mid-Year Meeting Colorado Springs, Colorado June 14, 2004

--2727----2727--

Not All Crude Oil Is Equal

$0.00

$10.00

$20.00

$30.00

$40.00

$50.00

1 bbl WTI 1 bbl Arab Medium

Fuel OilDistillateGasoline

Note: Values shown are approximate based on estimated yields and Platts’ indicated values on June 8, 2004.

45%

45%

10%

30%

38%

32%

$43. 31$39.59

Gross Product Value in $/bbl

Page 28: IPAA Mid-Year Meeting Colorado Springs, Colorado June 14, 2004

--2828----2828--

Variations in Selected Domestic Differentials to WTI

-$4.00

-$3.00

-$2.00

-$1.00

$0.00

$1.00

MIDLAND WTI LLS HLS WTS EIC BONITO POS MARS

Page 29: IPAA Mid-Year Meeting Colorado Springs, Colorado June 14, 2004

--2929----2929--

Variations in Selected Canadian Differentials to WTI

-$4.00-$2.00$0.00$2.00$4.00$6.00$8.00

$10.00$12.00$14.00

May

-02Ju

n-02

Jul-0

2Au

g-02

Sep-

02Oc

t-02

Nov-0

2De

c-02

Jan-

03Fe

b-03

Mar

-03Ap

r-03

May

-03Ju

n-03

Jul-0

3Au

g-03

Sep-

03Oc

t-03

Nov-0

3De

c-03

Jan-

04Fe

b-04

Mar

-04Ap

r-04

Page 30: IPAA Mid-Year Meeting Colorado Springs, Colorado June 14, 2004

--3030----3030--

Example of an Impending Complication:Storm Clouds Forming or Light Shower?

Situation:

A. U.S. market is currently balanced with foreign waterborne imports.

B. Canada is projected to ramp up oil sands production ~500,000 b/d+

C. U.S. GOM is projected to ramp up deepwater production ~500,000 b/d+

D. U.S. demand is not projected to simultaneously grow by 1 million b/d.

E. Mideast Politcs are highly unstable.

Page 31: IPAA Mid-Year Meeting Colorado Springs, Colorado June 14, 2004

--3131----3131--

Possible Outcomes:

1. The U.S. begins exporting over 500,000 b/d.

2. U.S. producers shut-in over 500,000 b/d or reduce drilling activities (at ~ $40.00/bo) to make room for incremental volumes.

3. Foreign sources of waterborne imports happily withdraw 500,000 b/d from the market (thus losing market share in the world’s most critical market?).

4. Inventories begin to build; price pressure hits the U.S. market and competition among grades and qualities intensifies.

5. Something unexpected happens to balance the market (strike, Mideast disturbance, explosion in demand, etc.)

6. Some combination of all of the foregoing

Example of an Impending Complication:Storm Clouds Forming or Light Shower? Continued.

Page 32: IPAA Mid-Year Meeting Colorado Springs, Colorado June 14, 2004

Oil Industry Prediction (Challenge):

“We are going to be living in interesting times.”

Chinese Proverb (Curse):

“May you live in interesting times.”

Page 33: IPAA Mid-Year Meeting Colorado Springs, Colorado June 14, 2004

--3333----3333--

GLA View is that both statements are correct,

“We’re draining our reserves dry.”

Houston Chronicle

May 30, 2004

Llewellyn King

Chairman & CEO

King Publishing Co.

Publisher for:

White House Weekly

& Energy Daily

“Enough oil to last for 500 years .”

Houston Chronicle

May 30, 2004

H. Sterling Burnett

Senior Fellow

National Center for

Policy Analysis

CheapGLA Edit

^

, if the price is high enough.

GLA Edit

^

with slight editing….

Page 34: IPAA Mid-Year Meeting Colorado Springs, Colorado June 14, 2004

Not any time soon…

…,but it could get REAL expensive.

Is the U.S. Running Out of Oil?World

Page 35: IPAA Mid-Year Meeting Colorado Springs, Colorado June 14, 2004

NYSE: PAANYSE: PAANYSE: PAANYSE: PAA

Except for the historical information contained herein, the matters discussed in this presentation are forward-looking statements that include risks and uncertainties. These risks and uncertainties include, among other things, market conditions, governmental regulations and other factors discussed in Plains All American Pipeline, L.P.’s filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

Except for the historical information contained herein, the matters discussed in this presentation are forward-looking statements that include risks and uncertainties. These risks and uncertainties include, among other things, market conditions, governmental regulations and other factors discussed in Plains All American Pipeline, L.P.’s filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission.