investor meetings - pnm resources/media/files/p/pnm... · 2016-03-23 · jimmie blotter, investor...

50
Investor Meetings April 2013

Upload: others

Post on 20-May-2020

6 views

Category:

Documents


0 download

TRANSCRIPT

Page 1: Investor Meetings - PNM Resources/media/Files/P/PNM... · 2016-03-23 · Jimmie Blotter, Investor Relations Manager Allyson Beck, Investor Relations Analyst (505) 241-2227 (505) 241-4612

Investor Meetings

April 2013

Page 2: Investor Meetings - PNM Resources/media/Files/P/PNM... · 2016-03-23 · Jimmie Blotter, Investor Relations Manager Allyson Beck, Investor Relations Analyst (505) 241-2227 (505) 241-4612

Contact Information and Safe Harbor Statement

2

Investor Relations Contact Information Jimmie Blotter, Investor Relations Manager Allyson Beck, Investor Relations Analyst (505) 241-2227 (505) 241-4612 [email protected] [email protected]

Safe Harbor Statement Statements made in this presentation that relate to future events or PNM Resources’ (“PNMR”), Public Service Company of New Mexico’s (“PNM”), or Texas-New Mexico Power Company’s (“TNMP”) (collectively, the “Company”) expectations, projections, estimates, intentions, goals, targets, and strategies are made pursuant to the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Readers are cautioned that all forward-looking statements are based upon current expectations and estimates. PNMR, PNM, and TNMP assume no obligation to update this information. Because actual results may differ materially from those expressed or implied by these forward-looking statements, PNMR, PNM, and TNMP caution readers not to place undue reliance on these statements. PNMR's, PNM's, and TNMP's business, financial condition, cash flow, and operating results are influenced by many factors, which are often beyond their control, that can cause actual results to differ from those expressed or implied by the forward-looking statements. For a discussion of risk factors and other important factors affecting forward-looking statements, please see the Company’s Form 10-K and Form 10-Q filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, which are specifically incorporated by reference herein. Non-GAAP Financial Measures For an explanation of the non-GAAP financial measures that appear on certain slides in this presentation (ongoing earnings, ongoing earnings per diluted share, and ongoing EBITDA), as well as a reconciliation to GAAP measures, please refer to the Company’s website as follows: http://www.pnmresources.com/investors/results.cfm .

Page 3: Investor Meetings - PNM Resources/media/Files/P/PNM... · 2016-03-23 · Jimmie Blotter, Investor Relations Manager Allyson Beck, Investor Relations Analyst (505) 241-2227 (505) 241-4612

Strategic Overview

Page 4: Investor Meetings - PNM Resources/media/Files/P/PNM... · 2016-03-23 · Jimmie Blotter, Investor Relations Manager Allyson Beck, Investor Relations Analyst (505) 241-2227 (505) 241-4612

PNM Resources Overview

•Energy holding company

•Based in Albuquerque, New Mexico

•Located in New Mexico

•504,700 customers

•14,562 miles transmission and distribution lines

•2,538MW generation capacity

•Top quartile reliability

•Affordable rates

•Located in Texas

•231,700 end-users

•9,080 miles transmission and distribution lines

•Top quartile reliability

•Affordable rates

NYSE Ticker PNM

Market Cap $1.7B

PNM Resources is a regulated electric utility holding company focused on providing a top quartile total return to shareholders

Generation Resources and Service Territories

4

Page 5: Investor Meetings - PNM Resources/media/Files/P/PNM... · 2016-03-23 · Jimmie Blotter, Investor Relations Manager Allyson Beck, Investor Relations Analyst (505) 241-2227 (505) 241-4612

PNM Resources Strategic Direction

Strengthened financial position as result of strategic shift and regulatory

successes

Management able to efficiently execute strategic redirection of business

Repositioned PNM Resources as a pure-play electric utility through competitive

business exit in 2011

5

Strategic Goals

Earn Authorized Return on our Regulated Businesses

Continue to Improve

Credit Ratings

Provide Top Quartile

Total Return

Page 6: Investor Meetings - PNM Resources/media/Files/P/PNM... · 2016-03-23 · Jimmie Blotter, Investor Relations Manager Allyson Beck, Investor Relations Analyst (505) 241-2227 (505) 241-4612

Ongoing Earnings Per Share Improvement

6

$0.50 $0.58 $0.76

$1.14 $1.16 - $1.23 $0.13 $0.17

$0.29

$0.33 $0.32 - $0.34

($0.20) ($0.20) ($0.14) ($0.16) ($0.16 - $0.15)

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013E

Ongoing Earnings Per Share

PNM TNMP Corporate

$0.55 $0.43

$0.91

$1.31

Guidance Range $1.32 - $1.42 $1.37 Midpoint

Page 7: Investor Meetings - PNM Resources/media/Files/P/PNM... · 2016-03-23 · Jimmie Blotter, Investor Relations Manager Allyson Beck, Investor Relations Analyst (505) 241-2227 (505) 241-4612

Delivering Top Quartile Returns

7

•Investing in core capital, environmental control equipment, replacement power and renewables

Rate Base Growth

•Realizing earnings potential in business

•Continuing to earn our allowed returns

•Reducing regulatory lag

Earnings Growth •Sustaining and growing the

dividend

•Providing above-average dividend growth expected near-term

•Improving payout ratio to meet long-term target

Dividend Growth

Page 8: Investor Meetings - PNM Resources/media/Files/P/PNM... · 2016-03-23 · Jimmie Blotter, Investor Relations Manager Allyson Beck, Investor Relations Analyst (505) 241-2227 (505) 241-4612

$224 $248 $244

$184 $175

$84

$98 $106

$91 $93

$50

$33 $17

$6

$15

$14 $14

$13 $13

$6 $50

$7

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

(In millions)

PNM TNMP Renewables Other Peaking Capacity

$430

$373 $399

$301 $281

Amounts may not add due to rounding San Juan environmental capital spend for either SCR and SNCR technology and any replacement generating capacity excluded from core capital

Core Capital Spending

2013 – 2017 Core Capital Plan: $1.8B 2013 Expected Depreciation: $156M

PNM Rate Base CAGR: 2% - 3% TNMP Rate Base CAGR: 7% - 9%

8

Page 9: Investor Meetings - PNM Resources/media/Files/P/PNM... · 2016-03-23 · Jimmie Blotter, Investor Relations Manager Allyson Beck, Investor Relations Analyst (505) 241-2227 (505) 241-4612

San Juan BART Update

State alternative plan • Shut down units 2 and 3 by year-end 2017

• Install SNCRs on units 1 and 4 by early 2016(1)

• Reduce greenhouse gases and fresh water consumption

• Diversify generation portfolio with replacement power

10th Circuit Litigation • Provided report on Feb. 25 that an agreement has been

reached

Installation of SCRs • Suspended EPC contractor agreement

(1) Installation expected to be complete the later of Jan. 31, 2016 or 15 months after EPA approval of the revised state plan

9

Page 10: Investor Meetings - PNM Resources/media/Files/P/PNM... · 2016-03-23 · Jimmie Blotter, Investor Relations Manager Allyson Beck, Investor Relations Analyst (505) 241-2227 (505) 241-4612

$373 $399 $430

$301 $281

$7

$76

$197 $10

$33

$20

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

(In millions)

Core Capital Total Peaking Capacity SNCRs

$457

$383 $432

$377

$478

Amounts may not add due to rounding

Estimated incremental SIP(1) capital: $343M PNM rate base CAGR with SIP(2): 3% - 5%

Capital Spending Under Revised State Plan

PNM’s share of SNCR capital costs are approximately $63M

Potential replacement

power options: • Peaking capacity

o 150-200 MW gas peaker o 40 MW gas peaker

• Base load(2)

o 134 MW nuclear capacity at Palo Verde 3 and/or

o Additional gas generation

(1) State implementation plan (2) Base load is not included in the $343M of capital spend

10

Page 11: Investor Meetings - PNM Resources/media/Files/P/PNM... · 2016-03-23 · Jimmie Blotter, Investor Relations Manager Allyson Beck, Investor Relations Analyst (505) 241-2227 (505) 241-4612

New Mexico Renewable Energy Act

•Streamlined proceedings for approval of utilities’ renewable energy procurement plans

•Provides for recovery of program costs under approved procurement plan

Portfolio Standards as a % of Retail Sales

10% 2011

15%

2015

20% 2020

New Mexico’s Ranking in U.S. •Second in solar potential •Twelfth in wind potential •First in solar/capita

Renewable Rider Collection Methodology •Recovery of renewable investments and REC purchases through Renewable Energy Rider

PNM Renewables

11

Wind

•New Mexico Wind Energy Center

•136 turbines

•204MW

•Purchase power agreement with FPL Energy

Solar

•5 PNM-owned facilities

•22MW

•Solar battery storage facility

•Customer-owned solar facilities

2013 Renewable Procurement Plan

• Installation of 20MW additional solar capacity

•10 MW Geothermal purchase power agreement

•Additional customer-owned solar facilities

Page 12: Investor Meetings - PNM Resources/media/Files/P/PNM... · 2016-03-23 · Jimmie Blotter, Investor Relations Manager Allyson Beck, Investor Relations Analyst (505) 241-2227 (505) 241-4612

(1) Renewable rate rider implemented on August 20, 2012.

(2) FERC Generation’s potential achievement would occur with the filing and resolution of new rates for the Gallup contract, which is expected in 2014. (3) Consists primarily of certain incentive compensation and pension-related costs associated with the sale of PNM Gas. (4) PV3 generation is currently sold at market. The range assumes a market price of $34 to $42 per MWh. (5) $143M of 9.25% debt at PNM Resources holding company matures May 15, 2015. Repayment funded by operating company dividends.

This table is not intended to represent a forward-looking projection of earnings.

Minimizing regulatory lag, improving market prices, and reducing Corporate debt could improve current EPS by $0.16 to $0.25 without rate base growth

2013 Rate Base

% of Rate Base

Mid Point Guidance Range

Potential Earnings Power Growth Potential

EPS

Potential Achievement

Return EPS Allowed Return

Resulting EPS

PNM Regulated Business

PNM Retail $1.8B 86% 10% $1.16 10% $1.16

Renewables (1) $79M 4% 10% $0.05 10% $0.05

FERC Transmission $150M 7% 8% $0.07 9%–10% $0.08–$0.09 $0.01–$0.02 2013–2014

FERC Generation $69M 3% 4 % $0.02 9%–10% $0.04–$0.05 $0.02–$0.03 2014(2)

Costs not included in rates(3) ($0.03) ($0.03) 2014

PV3 Unregulated Generation ($0.07) ($0.07)–$0.00 $0.00–$0.07 See Note 4

TNMP $561M 10% $0.33 10.125% $0.34 $0.01 2013

Corporate/Other ($0.16) ($0.04)(5) $0.12 2016

Total $2.7B $1.37 $1.53–$1.62 $0.16–$0.25

Potential Earnings Power

12

Page 13: Investor Meetings - PNM Resources/media/Files/P/PNM... · 2016-03-23 · Jimmie Blotter, Investor Relations Manager Allyson Beck, Investor Relations Analyst (505) 241-2227 (505) 241-4612

PNM: Recent Accomplishments

13

Significant progress has been made to improve PNM’s financial health

Earning our allowed return at PNM Retail

Improving regulatory outcomes

• PNM Retail rates increased $72M in August of 2011

• PNM Retail Renewable Rider implemented in August of 2012

• Expected 2013 revenue is $22.7M with rates reset annually

• PNM FERC Generation settlement with Navopache Electric increased rates by $5.3M

• PNM FERC Transmission revenue increased by $2.9M

• FERC Transmission transition to formula rates requested 2012

• Results in requested increase of $3.2M

• Improving regulatory environment in New Mexico

• Future Test Year construct in place

• Voters approved qualification requirement for NMPRC Commissioners

Page 14: Investor Meetings - PNM Resources/media/Files/P/PNM... · 2016-03-23 · Jimmie Blotter, Investor Relations Manager Allyson Beck, Investor Relations Analyst (505) 241-2227 (505) 241-4612

TNMP: Recent Accomplishments

14

Constructive Texas regulatory framework provides solid earnings potential

• General rate case settlement resulting in a rate increase of $10.25M in February 2011

• Smart meter rider approval in July 2011 led to implementation of $12M surcharge

• Energy efficiency program costs collected through Energy Efficiency Cost Recovery Factor

• TNMP has achieved performance bonuses in 2010, 2011, and 2012

• TCOS and DCOS filings provide the ability to recover transmission and distribution cost of service investments on a timely basis

• TNMP’s latest TCOS filing requesting additional revenue of $2.9M was approved with rates implemented on March 19, 2013

Page 15: Investor Meetings - PNM Resources/media/Files/P/PNM... · 2016-03-23 · Jimmie Blotter, Investor Relations Manager Allyson Beck, Investor Relations Analyst (505) 241-2227 (505) 241-4612

Regulatory Update

Item Action Timing Docket No.

FERC generation case (Navopache Electric Cooperative, Inc.)

Settlement filed December 7 Awaiting FERC final approval

ER11-4535-000 and ER12-72-000

FERC transmission formula rates case Filed December 31 2014 ER13-685-000 and ER13-690-000

NMPRC Delta Person Generating Station CCN Filed January 3 Q3 2013 13-00004-UT

FERC Delta Person Generating Station Approval Filed January 24 Approved February 26 EC13-68

TNMP TCOS Filing Approved with rates in place March 19 41176

15

Page 16: Investor Meetings - PNM Resources/media/Files/P/PNM... · 2016-03-23 · Jimmie Blotter, Investor Relations Manager Allyson Beck, Investor Relations Analyst (505) 241-2227 (505) 241-4612

Dividend Increase

The annual common stock dividend was raised by 14% on February 28, 2013

Long-term target: 50% - 60% payout ratio

• Above average dividend growth expected

The Board will continue to evaluate the dividend considering:

• Sustainability and growth

• Capital investment needs

• Industry standards

Annual dividend review will move to December

• Expect a comparable dividend increase that will allow us to achieve our target payout ratio

2013 Dividend: $0.66

Payout ratio: 48% (1)

Dividend yield: 3.0% (2)

(1) Assumes mid-point of the 2013 guidance range (2) Based on 2/26/13 stock price of $21.90

16

Page 17: Investor Meetings - PNM Resources/media/Files/P/PNM... · 2016-03-23 · Jimmie Blotter, Investor Relations Manager Allyson Beck, Investor Relations Analyst (505) 241-2227 (505) 241-4612

Key Strategic Goals and Checklist

17

Achieve successful outcomes in:

NM filings for revised SIP

FERC transmission formula rates

FERC Gallup power sale agreement

TX TCOS filing

Maintain strong electric reliability and power plant availability

Control O&M and capital costs

Continue execution of plan to achieve top quartile total return by 2016

2013 Checklist

Page 18: Investor Meetings - PNM Resources/media/Files/P/PNM... · 2016-03-23 · Jimmie Blotter, Investor Relations Manager Allyson Beck, Investor Relations Analyst (505) 241-2227 (505) 241-4612

PNM Overview

Page 19: Investor Meetings - PNM Resources/media/Files/P/PNM... · 2016-03-23 · Jimmie Blotter, Investor Relations Manager Allyson Beck, Investor Relations Analyst (505) 241-2227 (505) 241-4612

PNM Load Growth and Economic Conditions

(1) Excludes Economy Service customers (2) New Mexico: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, December 2012

U.S.: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, January 2013

2012 Average Customer Growth

0.3%

6.4%

7.9%

Unemployment Rate(2)

NM U.S.

19

Regulated Retail Energy Sales Growth (weather-normalized)

8,200

8,400

8,600

8,800

9,000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013E

GWh PNM

2013 Load Growth 0% - 1%

(1)

Page 20: Investor Meetings - PNM Resources/media/Files/P/PNM... · 2016-03-23 · Jimmie Blotter, Investor Relations Manager Allyson Beck, Investor Relations Analyst (505) 241-2227 (505) 241-4612

PNM Rates Compare Favorably in U.S.

PNM rates reflect the most recent rate increase. All others reflect U.S. Energy Information Administration's Forecasted Residential Rate increases through 2012. 20

US Average

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

4.5% U

T C

O

MA

M

N

CA

W

Y W

A

DC

P

NM

N

J A

K

IL

RI

NH

N

M

IA

WI

ID

MT

ME

VT

NE

MD

M

I SD

C

T N

D

VA

N

V

NY

OR

K

S IN

TX

PA

M

O

DE

OH

K

Y N

C

AZ

OK

A

R

WV

G

A

LA

FL

SC

TN

HI

MS

AL

Est.

Ave

rage

20

11

Ele

ctri

c B

ill

Es.t

20

11

Med

ian

Ho

use

ho

ld In

com

e

Sources: EIA Form 826, US Census Bureau, PNM Filing Data

Page 21: Investor Meetings - PNM Resources/media/Files/P/PNM... · 2016-03-23 · Jimmie Blotter, Investor Relations Manager Allyson Beck, Investor Relations Analyst (505) 241-2227 (505) 241-4612

PNM: Path to Continued Success

Continue to earn allowed return

• Minimize regulatory lag through timely rate case filings

• Synchronize revenues and expenses

• Use future test year

• Balance future rate increases for customers while ensuring the appropriate return is earned for our shareholders

Continue to strengthen investment grade credit metrics

Continue to control costs

21

Page 22: Investor Meetings - PNM Resources/media/Files/P/PNM... · 2016-03-23 · Jimmie Blotter, Investor Relations Manager Allyson Beck, Investor Relations Analyst (505) 241-2227 (505) 241-4612

TNMP Overview

Page 23: Investor Meetings - PNM Resources/media/Files/P/PNM... · 2016-03-23 · Jimmie Blotter, Investor Relations Manager Allyson Beck, Investor Relations Analyst (505) 241-2227 (505) 241-4612

TNMP Load Growth and Economic Conditions

(1) Excludes Transmission Service end-users (2) Texas: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, December 2012

U.S.: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, January 2013

2012 Average Customer Growth

0.7%

6.1%

7.9%

Unemployment Rate(2)

TX U.S.

23

Regulated Retail Energy Sales Growth (weather-normalized)

4,900

5,000

5,100

5,200

5,300

5,400

5,500

5,600

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013E

GWh TNMP

(1)

2013 Load Growth 1% - 3%

Page 24: Investor Meetings - PNM Resources/media/Files/P/PNM... · 2016-03-23 · Jimmie Blotter, Investor Relations Manager Allyson Beck, Investor Relations Analyst (505) 241-2227 (505) 241-4612

TNMP Rates Compare Favorably in Texas

$-

$5

$10

$15

$20

$25

$30

$35

$40

$45

$50

Oncor TNMP AEP North Centerpoint AEP Central

Residential Total Wires Charge for 1,000 kWh

24 Source: TDU tariffs for retail delivery service, as of May 1, 2012

Page 25: Investor Meetings - PNM Resources/media/Files/P/PNM... · 2016-03-23 · Jimmie Blotter, Investor Relations Manager Allyson Beck, Investor Relations Analyst (505) 241-2227 (505) 241-4612

TNMP: Pathway to Continued Success

Continue to earn allowed rate of return through timely execution of general rate case filings and use of transmission and distribution cost of service filings

Invest in the business

Retain solid credit metrics

Continue to control costs

25

Page 26: Investor Meetings - PNM Resources/media/Files/P/PNM... · 2016-03-23 · Jimmie Blotter, Investor Relations Manager Allyson Beck, Investor Relations Analyst (505) 241-2227 (505) 241-4612

2012 Results

Page 27: Investor Meetings - PNM Resources/media/Files/P/PNM... · 2016-03-23 · Jimmie Blotter, Investor Relations Manager Allyson Beck, Investor Relations Analyst (505) 241-2227 (505) 241-4612

2012 Financial Results and Company Updates

Q4 2012 Q4 2011 YE 2012 YE 2011

Ongoing EPS(1) $0.13 $0.22 $1.31 $1.08

GAAP EPS(1) $0.11 $1.35(2) $1.31 $1.96(3)

27

Increased dividend payment 14% for 2013 Annual dividend review moved to December

Affirmed 2013 ongoing earnings guidance at $1.32 -

$1.42

(1) On a diluted basis (2) Includes $1.17 gain from the Nov. 1, 2011, sale of First Choice Power (3) Includes $1.08 gain from the Nov. 1, 2011, sale of First Choice Power

Page 28: Investor Meetings - PNM Resources/media/Files/P/PNM... · 2016-03-23 · Jimmie Blotter, Investor Relations Manager Allyson Beck, Investor Relations Analyst (505) 241-2227 (505) 241-4612

2012 Financial Summary

$1.08

$1.31

$0.38 $0.04 ($0.02) ($0.17)

2011 2012

Ongoing EPS

PNM First Choice

Power/Optim Energy (1)

Corp/Other TNMP

28

(1) After August 31, 2011 Optim Energy’s financial results were not included in PNM Resources’ ongoing earnings. Sale of First Choice Power was completed on November 1, 2011.

Page 29: Investor Meetings - PNM Resources/media/Files/P/PNM... · 2016-03-23 · Jimmie Blotter, Investor Relations Manager Allyson Beck, Investor Relations Analyst (505) 241-2227 (505) 241-4612

PNM and TNMP: FY 2012 vs FY 2011 EPS (Ongoing)

PNM

TNMP

$0.76

$1.14

2011 2012

2012 Key Performance Drivers ∆ EPS

Retail rate relief and renewable rider $0.29

AFUDC $0.07

O&M reductions $0.06

FERC rate relief $0.03

Outage costs ($0.03)

Interest expense ($0.03)

Load ($0.05)

Palo Verde 3 market price ($0.05)

Other ($0.04)

PNM Resources 2011 share repurchase $0.13

$0.29 $0.33

2011 2012

2012 Key Performance Drivers ∆ EPS

Load $0.04

Rate relief $0.01

Weather ($0.06)

Other $0.02

PNM Resources 2011 share repurchase $0.03

29

Page 30: Investor Meetings - PNM Resources/media/Files/P/PNM... · 2016-03-23 · Jimmie Blotter, Investor Relations Manager Allyson Beck, Investor Relations Analyst (505) 241-2227 (505) 241-4612

Q4 2012 Financial Summary

$0.22

$0.13

($0.06) $0.01

($0.02) ($0.02)

Q4 2011 Q4 2012

Ongoing EPS

PNM

First Choice Power (1)

Corp/Other

TNMP

(1) Sale of First Choice Power was completed on November 1, 2011.

30

Page 31: Investor Meetings - PNM Resources/media/Files/P/PNM... · 2016-03-23 · Jimmie Blotter, Investor Relations Manager Allyson Beck, Investor Relations Analyst (505) 241-2227 (505) 241-4612

PNM and TNMP: Q4 2012 vs Q4 2011 EPS (Ongoing)

PNM

TNMP

$0.15 $0.09

Q4 2011 Q4 2012

Q4 2012 Key Performance Drivers ∆ EPS

Palo Verde Nuclear Decommissioning Trust $0.04

AFUDC $0.03

Load ($0.04)

Outage costs ($0.06)

Other ($0.03)

$0.07 $0.08

Q4 2011 Q4 2012

Q4 2012 Key Performance Drivers ∆ EPS

Load $0.01

31

Page 32: Investor Meetings - PNM Resources/media/Files/P/PNM... · 2016-03-23 · Jimmie Blotter, Investor Relations Manager Allyson Beck, Investor Relations Analyst (505) 241-2227 (505) 241-4612

Liquidity, Capital Structure and Credit Ratings

PNM Resources PNM TNMP Total

Financing Capacity as of February 22, 2013

Total Capacity(1) $300.0 $400.0 $75.0 $775.0

Less short-term debt(1) and LOC balances 35.5 111.2 25.3 171.9

Plus invested cash 2.8 - - 2.8

Total Available Liquidity $267.3 $288.8 $49.8 $605.9

In October 2012, extended PNM and PNM Resources revolver credit facilities one year

Targeting cap structure of: 50/50 at PNM and 55/45 at TNMP

32

S&P

2008 2012

PNMR(1) BB- BB+

PNM (1) BB+ BBB-

TNMP(2) BB+ BBB+

Outlook Negative Stable

Moody’s

2008 2012

PNMR(1) Ba2 Ba1

PNM (1) Baa3 Baa3

TNMP(2) N/A A3

Outlook Negative Stable (1) Senior unsecured (2) Senior secured

Credit Ratings: (1)PNM Resources also has a fully drawn $100M term loan due 12/27/13 not reflected above.

Page 33: Investor Meetings - PNM Resources/media/Files/P/PNM... · 2016-03-23 · Jimmie Blotter, Investor Relations Manager Allyson Beck, Investor Relations Analyst (505) 241-2227 (505) 241-4612

2013 Guidance Information

Page 34: Investor Meetings - PNM Resources/media/Files/P/PNM... · 2016-03-23 · Jimmie Blotter, Investor Relations Manager Allyson Beck, Investor Relations Analyst (505) 241-2227 (505) 241-4612

2013 Guidance (Ongoing)

$1.32 Consolidated EPS $1.42

PNM

$1.16 - $1.23

TNMP

$0.32 - $0.34

Corp/Other

($0.16) – ($0.15)

34

Page 35: Investor Meetings - PNM Resources/media/Files/P/PNM... · 2016-03-23 · Jimmie Blotter, Investor Relations Manager Allyson Beck, Investor Relations Analyst (505) 241-2227 (505) 241-4612

2012E – 2013E Key Performance Drivers Year-over-Year

∆ EPS

Outage costs $0.05

Renewable rider $0.02

Load growth $0.00 - $0.05

FERC Transmission rate relief (1) $0.00 - $0.02

FERC Generation rate relief (2) $0.01 - $0.05

Palo Verde Unit 3 $0.01

2012 Palo Verde Nuclear Decommissioning Trust ($0.03)

2012 Weather ($0.06)

2011 2012 2013E

$0.76 $1.16 - $1.23

PNM EPS

PNM Guidance (Ongoing)

35

$1.14

(1)Associated estimated rate base is $150 million (2)Associated estimated rate base is $68 million

Page 36: Investor Meetings - PNM Resources/media/Files/P/PNM... · 2016-03-23 · Jimmie Blotter, Investor Relations Manager Allyson Beck, Investor Relations Analyst (505) 241-2227 (505) 241-4612

$0.29

2011 2012 2013E

$0.32 - $0.34 $0.33

TNMP EPS

2012E – 2013E Key Performance Drivers Year-over-Year

∆ EPS

TCOS rate relief $0.04

Load growth $0.01 - $0.03

CTC ($0.01)

Depreciation and property tax ($0.02)

TNMP Guidance (Ongoing)

36

Page 37: Investor Meetings - PNM Resources/media/Files/P/PNM... · 2016-03-23 · Jimmie Blotter, Investor Relations Manager Allyson Beck, Investor Relations Analyst (505) 241-2227 (505) 241-4612

Appendix

Page 38: Investor Meetings - PNM Resources/media/Files/P/PNM... · 2016-03-23 · Jimmie Blotter, Investor Relations Manager Allyson Beck, Investor Relations Analyst (505) 241-2227 (505) 241-4612

PNM Historical Rate Cases

• 6% base rate increase

• $33M rate increase

• Temporary fuel clause

2008

• 8% base rate increase

• $77M rate increase

• Permanent fuel clause

• Merchant plants included in rate base

2009 • 9% base rate

increase

• $72.1M rate increase

2011 • Renewable Energy

Rider

• $6.7M expected revenue in 2012

• $22.7M expected in 2013

2012

38

•Transmission service rate case

•$2.9M rate increase

2010

•Navopache Electric wholesale rate case

•$5.3M rate increase

2011

•Transmission formula rate filing

•Requested $3.2M rate increase

2012

FERC Rate Cases

PNM Retail Rate Cases

Page 39: Investor Meetings - PNM Resources/media/Files/P/PNM... · 2016-03-23 · Jimmie Blotter, Investor Relations Manager Allyson Beck, Investor Relations Analyst (505) 241-2227 (505) 241-4612

TNMP Historical Rate Cases

•7% rate increase

•General rate case

•$13M rate increase

2009

•4% base rate increase

•TCOS case

•$6M rate increase

2010

•6% base rate increase

•General rate case

•$10M rate increase

2011

TNMP Rate Cases

•AMS Case

•$12M surcharge

2011 •TCOS Case

•$2.5M rate increase

2012 •TCOS Case

•$2.9M rate increase

2013

39

Page 40: Investor Meetings - PNM Resources/media/Files/P/PNM... · 2016-03-23 · Jimmie Blotter, Investor Relations Manager Allyson Beck, Investor Relations Analyst (505) 241-2227 (505) 241-4612

NMPRC Commissioners and Districts

NMPRC Districts and PNM Service Areas Name District

Term Ends

Party

Karen Montoya District 1 2016 Democrat

Patrick Lyons District 2 2014 Republican

Valerie Espinoza Vice Chair

District 3 2016 Democrat

Theresa Becenti-Aguilar District 4 2014 Democrat

Ben Hall Chairman

District 5 2014 Republican

40

Page 41: Investor Meetings - PNM Resources/media/Files/P/PNM... · 2016-03-23 · Jimmie Blotter, Investor Relations Manager Allyson Beck, Investor Relations Analyst (505) 241-2227 (505) 241-4612

Public Utility Commission of Texas Commissioners

Name Term

Began Term Ends

Party

Donna Nelson Chairman

Aug. 2008 Aug. 2015 Republican

Kenneth Anderson Sept. 2008 Aug. 2017 Republican

Rolando Pablos(1) Sept. 2011 Aug. 2013 Republican

Commissioners are appointed by Governor of Texas. Length of term is determined by the Governor. (1)Commissioner Pablos has resigned effective March 1, 2013. A replacement is yet to be appointed.

41

Page 42: Investor Meetings - PNM Resources/media/Files/P/PNM... · 2016-03-23 · Jimmie Blotter, Investor Relations Manager Allyson Beck, Investor Relations Analyst (505) 241-2227 (505) 241-4612

PNM Diversified Fuel Mix

Capacity 2,538 MW

Based on 12 months ending 12/31/12

Coal 38%

Natural Gas 38%

Nuclear 16%

Renewables 8%

(1) Includes PNM generation and PPAs

Energy (1)

10,947 GWh Based on 12 months ending 12/31/12

Coal 56% Nuclear

30%

Natural Gas 9%

Renewables 5%

42

Page 43: Investor Meetings - PNM Resources/media/Files/P/PNM... · 2016-03-23 · Jimmie Blotter, Investor Relations Manager Allyson Beck, Investor Relations Analyst (505) 241-2227 (505) 241-4612

Unit Duration in Days

Time Period

San Juan

4 54 Q1 – Q2 2013

1 9 Q1 2014

2 50 Q1 2014

Four Corners

4 21 Q2 2013

5 73 Q1 – Q2 2014

4 13 Q4 2014

Palo Verde

1 40 Q1 – Q2 2013

3 40 Q4 2013

2 40 Q1 – Q2 2014

1 40 Q4 2014

2013 - 2014 Outage Schedule

81.7% 83.5% 90.6%

83.1% 85.4% 90.9%

San Juan Four Corners Palo Verde

2012 2013E

PNM Plant EAF and Outages

(1)Annual top quartile numbers from the North American Electricity Reliability Corporation as of September 2012.

Annual Top Quartile Numbers(1)

Coal 90% Nuclear 93%

43

Page 44: Investor Meetings - PNM Resources/media/Files/P/PNM... · 2016-03-23 · Jimmie Blotter, Investor Relations Manager Allyson Beck, Investor Relations Analyst (505) 241-2227 (505) 241-4612

Palo Verde Leases

Lease Expiration

•Unit 1: January 15, 2015

•Unit 2: January 15, 2016

•Optional renewal lease periods extend to:

•2023 for 4 leases of Unit 1

•2018 for 3 leases of Unit 2

•2024 for 1 lease of Unit 2

Notice Dates

Yearly Payment Amounts

•Total PV Units 1 and 2

•$56.8M initial lease payment per year

•$28.4M renewal lease payment per year (50% of original payment)

MW Leased vs. Owned

Unit 1 Unit 1 Decision Unit 2 Unit 2 Decision

1st Notice

January 2012 Retain control of the generation

January 2013 Retain control of the generation

2nd Notice

January 2013 Extend leases January 2014 TBD(1)

Unit 1

Owned 2.3% 30 MW

Leased 7.9% 104 MW

Total 10.2% 134 MW

Unit 2

Owned 4.6% 60 MW

Leased 5.6% 74 MW

Total 10.2% 134 MW

44 (1)Indicate decision to extend leases or use purchase option.

Page 45: Investor Meetings - PNM Resources/media/Files/P/PNM... · 2016-03-23 · Jimmie Blotter, Investor Relations Manager Allyson Beck, Investor Relations Analyst (505) 241-2227 (505) 241-4612

San Juan Ownership and Participants

Unit Total MW

PNM MW

PNM Ownership

Other Participants/Ownership

1 340 170 50% Tucson Electric 50% (170 MW)

2 340 170 50% Tucson Electric 50% (170 MW)

3 497 249 50% Southern California Power Authority 41.8% (208 MW) Tri-State 8.2% (41 MW)

4 507 195 38.457%

M-S-R Public Power Agency 28.8% (146 MW) City of Anaheim 10.04% (51 MW) City of Farmington 8.475% (43 MW) Los Alamos County 7.2% (37 MW) Utah Associated Municipal Power Systems 7.028% (36 MW)

Total 1,684 783

45

Page 46: Investor Meetings - PNM Resources/media/Files/P/PNM... · 2016-03-23 · Jimmie Blotter, Investor Relations Manager Allyson Beck, Investor Relations Analyst (505) 241-2227 (505) 241-4612

Selected Balance Sheet Information

(1) Excludes inter-company debt

(In millions) Dec 31, 2011 Dec 31, 2012

Long-Term Debt (incl. current portion)

PNM $1,215.5 $1,215.6

TNMP 311.0 311.6

PNMR 147.5 145.1

Consolidated $1,674.0 $1,672.3

Total Debt (incl. short-term) (1)

PNM $1,281.5 $1,236.7

TNMP 311.0 311.6

PNMR 164.2 282.7

Consolidated $1,756.7 $1,831.0

46

Page 47: Investor Meetings - PNM Resources/media/Files/P/PNM... · 2016-03-23 · Jimmie Blotter, Investor Relations Manager Allyson Beck, Investor Relations Analyst (505) 241-2227 (505) 241-4612

$143

$39

$487

$690

$50

$266

2014 - 2016 2017 - 2019 Beyond 2019

Long-term Debt Maturities (In millions)

PNM Resources PNM TNMP

Upcoming Debt Maturities

47

Page 48: Investor Meetings - PNM Resources/media/Files/P/PNM... · 2016-03-23 · Jimmie Blotter, Investor Relations Manager Allyson Beck, Investor Relations Analyst (505) 241-2227 (505) 241-4612

Environmental Compliance

Page 49: Investor Meetings - PNM Resources/media/Files/P/PNM... · 2016-03-23 · Jimmie Blotter, Investor Relations Manager Allyson Beck, Investor Relations Analyst (505) 241-2227 (505) 241-4612

Environmental Control Equipment at Coal Units

Coal Unit PNM Share

Capacity (MW)

Low NOx Burners/

Overfired Air

Activated Carbon

Injection (1)

SNCR (2) SCR (2) Baghouse (3) Scrubbers

San Juan Unit 1 170 X X X X

San Juan Unit 2 170 X X X X

San Juan Unit 3 249 X X X X

San Juan Unit 4 194 X X X X

Four Corners Unit 4 100 Pre-2000 low NOx burners-

considered outdated

X X

Four Corners Unit 5 100 Pre-2000 low NOx burners-

considered outdated

X X

(1) Activated carbon injection systems reduce mercury emissions. For San Juan, the installation was completed in 2009, as part of a 3-year, $320M environmental upgrade. (2) SNCR refers to selective non-catalytic reduction systems. SCR refers to selective catalytic reduction systems. Both systems reduce NOx emissions. (3) Baghouses collect flyash and other particulate matter. For San Juan, the installation was completed in 2009, as part of a 3-year, $320M environmental upgrade.

49

Page 50: Investor Meetings - PNM Resources/media/Files/P/PNM... · 2016-03-23 · Jimmie Blotter, Investor Relations Manager Allyson Beck, Investor Relations Analyst (505) 241-2227 (505) 241-4612

Impact of Proposed Environmental Regulation

Estimated Compliance Costs

(PNM Share) Comments

San Juan Generating Station

Clean Air Act – Regional Haze (FIP) – SCR ~$385M - $425M SCR contract with Flour suspended

Clean Air Act – Regional Haze (SIP) – SNCR ~$62M - $64M See “Capital Spending Under Revised

State Plan” slide

Clean Air Act – National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) Included in SCR and SNCR

estimates above

BART upgrade would assist with compliance with NAAQS

Mercury Rules (MATS) (proposed) None to minimal Testing shows 99% removal

Resource Conservation and Recovery Act – Coal Ash (proposed) Significant exposure A hazardous waste designation of coal ash could result in significant costs to

comply

Clean Water Act – 316(b) (proposed) Minimal to some exposure Performing analysis to determine cost of

compliance

Four Corners (Units 4 and 5)

Clean Air Act – Regional Haze - SCR ~$69M APS has concluded negotiations with EPA

Mercury Rules (MATS) (proposed) Slight exposure APS evaluating options

Resource Conservation and Recovery Act – Coal Ash (proposed) Significant exposure A hazardous waste designation of coal ash could result in significant costs to

comply

Clean Water Act – 316(b) (proposed)

Some exposure Performing analysis to determine cost of

compliance

50