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TRANSCRIPT
April 2019
Investment Management Committee Meeting
Teacher Retirement System of Texas 1000 Red River Street Austin, Texas 78701-2698
TEACHER RETIREMENT SYSTEM OF TEXAS MEETING BOARD OF TRUSTEES
AND INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT COMMITTEE
(Committee Chair and Members: Mr. Colonnetta, Chair; Mr. Corpus; Mr.
Hollingsworth; Mr. Moss and Ms. Ramirez)
All or part of the April 25, 2019, meeting of the TRS Investment Management Committee and Board of Trustees may be held by telephone or video conference call as authorized under Sections 551.130 and 551.127 of the Texas Government Code. The Board intends to have a quorum and the presiding officer of the meeting physically present at the following location, which will be open to the public during the open portions of the meeting: 1000 Red River, Austin, Texas 78701 in the TRS East Building, 5th Floor, Boardroom.
AGENDA
April 25, 2019 – 12:15 p.m.
TRS East Building, 5th Floor, Boardroom
1. Call roll of Committee members.
2. Consider the approval of the proposed minutes of the December 2018 committee meeting – Committee Chair.
3. CIO Update including Fleet Strategy; Talent Management; Accomplishments; Notices; Awards; and Key Dates and Upcoming Events – Jerry Albright.
4. Discuss the Fourth Quarter 2018 Performance Review – Steve Voss, Mike McCormick and Mike Comstock, Aon Hewitt.
5. Overview of Public Equity Markets – Dale West.
6. Annual Update on Hedge Funds – Brad Gilbert.
7. Semi-annual Risk Report – James Nield.
8. Strategic Asset Allocation (SAA) Update and Review of Benchmark Best Practices – Mohan Balachandran, Matt Talbert; Keith Johnson, Reinhart Boerner Van Deuren; Steve Voss and Mike McCormick, AON Hewitt.
NOTE: The Board of Trustees (Board) of the Teacher Retirement System of Texas will not consider or act upon any item before the Investment Management Committee (Committee) at this meeting of the Committee. This meeting is not a regular meeting of the Board. However, because the full Committee constitutes a quorum of the Board, the meeting of the Committee is also being posted as a meeting of the Board out of an abundance of caution.
Minutes of the Investment Management Committee
December 13, 2018
The Investment Management Committee of the Board of Trustees of the Teacher Retirement System of Texas met on December 13, 2018, in the boardroom located on the fifth floor of the TRS East Building offices at 1000 Red River Street, Austin, Texas.
Committee Members present: Mr. Joe Colonnetta, Chair Mr. David Corpus Mr. Jarvis Hollingsworth Mr. Chris Moss Ms. Dolores Ramirez Other Board Members present: Mr. John Elliott Dr. Greg Gibson Mr. James D. Nance Ms. Nanette Sissney Others present: Brian Guthrie, TRS Steve Voss, Aon Hewitt Don Green, TRS Mike McCormick, Aon Hewitt Carolina de Onis, TRS Mike Comstock, Aon Hewitt Jerry Albright, TRS Dr. Keith Brown, Board Investment Advisor Jase Auby, TRS Ann Fickel, TCTA Mohan Balachandran, TRS Cheryl Anderson, AFT James Nield, TRS Mike Bentrott, Aetna Bernie Bozzelli, TRS Avery Saxe, LBB Heather Traeger, TRS Nick Arnold, Humana Katherine Farrell, TRS Keith Johnson, Fiduciary Counsel, Reinhart Boerner Van Deuren s.c. Investment Management Committee Chair Mr. Colonnetta called the meeting to order at 9:13 a.m.
1. Call roll of Committee members.
Ms. Farrell called the roll. A quorum was present.
2. Consider the approval of the proposed minutes of the September 2018 Committee meeting – Committee Chair.
On a motion by Mr. Corpus, seconded by Ms. Ramirez, the committee voted to approve the proposed minutes for the September 20, 2018, Investment Management Committee meeting as presented with Mr. Hollingsworth abstaining.
3. CIO Update including Fleet Strategy, Upcoming Events and Report on Metrics – Jerry Albright.
Mr. Jerry Albright discussed the metrics for the Trust Fund. He stated that for the total trust excess return the goal of 100 basis points was moving in the right direction with 64 basis points. He reported the public equity allocation goal has been met. He noted they were finalizing the private equity strategy, calling it private equity 2.0. Mr. Albright said they would report on net fee savings in April.
Mr. Albright concluded by discussing talent management and the search for the new emerging manger portfolio director. He said they are close to selecting finalists for the position.
4. Discuss the Third Quarter 2018 Performance Review – Steve Voss, Mike McCormick and Mike Comstock, Aon Hewitt.
Mr. Steve Voss presented the Third Quarter Performance. He stated that there are four major pillars that are the building block of the asset allocation. He said global equity is the largest at 57 percent and said there was strong returns for both the quarter and the one-year period. He said the stable value is at 16 percent and said the interest rates continue to increase during the past quarter. He stated the real return has strong returns for the one-year period. Lastly, he said risk parity is at 5 percent and has a reasonable return for the one-year period.
Mr. Voss discussed the U.S. stock market for the past year. He reviewed the policy targets for asset allocation and reported the investment management division (IMD) was in compliance with the targets.
Mr. Voss concluded with showing the consistency of returns on a 20 quarter basis where 13 out of those 20 periods alpha was generated with a reasonable level of risk and compliance with policy.
5. Annual Update on the Trading Group – Bernie Bozzelli.
Mr. Bernie Bozzelli provided an overview of the trading group. He discussed the products traded, trading partners, and the trading performance. He said the primary mandate performed by the trading group is to efficiently implement the investment decisions. He stated that as of September 30, 2018 $212 billion in notional value was traded across equities, futures and foreign exchange. He discussed the factors for having a high-performing trading team. Mr. Bozzelli reviewed the equity trading performance for the last 10 years.
6. Annual Update on the Risk Group – James Nield.
Mr. James Nield discussed the annual update on activities within the Risk Group. He reviewed the plans for this year which included the battle and action plans for key risks. He said there are two key mandates for the group, which includes risk management activities and developing risk strategies. Mr. Nield explained the risk monthly report, key risks, and the development of actions plans. He discussed the risk parity portfolio and said incremental adjustments are made to ensure they are on balance with their target. He reviewed next year’s plan to support the strategic asset allocation process, innovate where possible and to deliver on their mandate to enable efficient risk usage.
7. Annual Update on the Multi-Asset Strategies Group, including an overview of the Strategic Asset Allocation study – Mohan Balachandran.
Dr. Mohan Balachandran reviewed his groups’ areas of focus: the alpha focus portfolios, alternative risk premia, quantitative equities, and special opportunities. He explained alternative risk premia and said the goal of this program is to invest in the assets that have favorable return characteristics. He mentioned the group receiving the U.S. Institutional Risk Premium Manager of the Year award.
Dr. Balachandran reviewed the quantitative equity portfolio which had a strong absolute return. He also reviewed the special opportunities program that had its five year anniversary. This program funneled 202 ideas and invested in about 30 of them. He concluded by reviewing the fixed income portfolio and discussing the kick off of the strategic asset allocation study.
Without further discussion, the meeting adjourned at 10:46 a.m. APPROVED BY THE INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT COMMITTEE OF THE BOARD OF TRUSTEES OF THE TEACHER RETIREMENT SYSTEM OF TEXAS ON THE 25th DAY OF APRIL 2019.
______________________________ _________________ Katherine H. Farrell Date Secretary of the TRS Board of Trustees
1
Jerry Albright, Chief Investment OfficerApril 2019
Teacher Retirement System of Texas
Chief Investment Officer Update
Investment Management Division
2
CIO Update
Trust Value is $145 billion as of Q4 2018
• Fleet Strategy
o 32 planned Fleet hires in FY2019; 18 offers accepted and/or extended to date
Planning for an additional 14 Fleet hires spaced throughout the year
5 current vacancies
o Launched new IT shared services model to focus on IMD priorities
o Howard University partnership
• Talent Management
o Launch of new IMD Onboarding Program
o Developing initiatives to define IMD career path and framework
o Awarded Investor of the Year to Joyce Chow, Real Estate, and Spotlight Award to Horacio Zambrana, Talent Management at IMD annual Town Hall
• Accomplishments
o Hosted Annual Texas Hedge Fund Conference in Austin
o Actively engaged with Texas Legislators to offer IMD subject matter expertise during House and Senate Hearings
o Conducted Semi-Annual Portfolio Reviews in March/April 2019
• Notices
o AON notified that the SEC inquiry was closed resulting in no further action by AON
o Two Private Equity executives at TPG and Lightspeed involved in college bribery investigation
• IMD Awards
o Private Equity Real Estate (PERE) Awards 2018: Winner - “Institutional Investor of the Year: North America”
o EQ Derivatives Awards 2019: Winner - “U.S. Institutional Risk Premia Manager of the Year” (2nd Consecutive Year)
o EQ Derivatives Awards 2019: “Hall of Fame Inductee” – Mohan Balachandran
• Key Dates & Upcoming Events
o Milken Institute Global Conference (Los Angeles), April 28-May 1, 2019
o GCM Grosvenor Emerging and Diverse Manager Conference (New York City), June 12-13, 2019
o SPN Joint Summit (New York City), July 10, 2019
• July Board Meeting
o CIO Update
o Annual Update on External Private Markets
o IMD to propose final recommendations for SAA changes
o Preliminary IPS Recommendations
o First Quarter 2019 Performance Review
General IMD Update Upcoming IMD Items
Source: Trust value from State Street as of 12/31/2018. Fleet metrics as of 4/8/2019.
3
Metrics Reporting
Source: State Street Bank, TRS IMD as of 12/31/2018Note: Data shown as calendar-year. Public equity allocation excludes SPN
Metric Objective Target Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Total Trust Excess Return
Return in excess of the benchmark return for the Total Trust (3 Year Rolling) 100 bps 65 bps 60 bps 64 bps 71 bps
Public Equity Allocation Percent of internal public equity allocation 55% 55% 57% 56% 54%
Active Public Markets Excess
Return
Return in excess of the benchmark return for Active Public Markets investmentsrthe 100 bps 23 bps (6mo) -10 bps (9mo) 21 bps (1yr) -32 bps (1yr)
Principal Investments
Percent of portfolio capital plan in principal investments approved (cumulative quarter-over-quarter)1
33% 6% 27% 35% 44%
Private Markets Excess Return
Return in excess of the benchmark return for Private Markets investments (3 Year Rolling) 155 bps 170 bps 174 bps 179 bps 210 bps
EstimatedFee Savings External manager fee savings2 $53M $46M
1 – Q4 represents actual capital commitments vs. approvals and actual capital plan vs. budgeted plan2 – Figure includes estimated external manager fee savings in Public Markets and Private Markets for the twelve months ended December 31, 2018.
4
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Nothing in this document should be construed as legal or investment advice. Please consult with your independent professional for any such advice. To protect the confidential and proprietary information included in this material, it may not be disclosed or provided to any third parties without the approval of Aon Hewitt.
Teacher Retirement System of TexasPerformance Review: Fourth Quarter 2018
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Summary
September 2018 marked the 10th anniversary of the collapse of Lehman Brothers and also marked a turning point in the current economic cycle; beginning in October, and throughout the quarter, markets were challenged by a shift in sentiment
Global equities posted the largest one-quarter declines since the financial crisis as concerns about trade wars and slowing growth were of concern; meanwhile fixed income markets were mixed with Government bonds producing positive returns in light of rising short term rates during the quarter and credit returns slightly negative
Against this challenging environment, TRS returned -4.4% for the quarter which was 0.1 percentage points above its benchmark− Asset allocation value add from underweight positioning to Total USA and an overweight to Other Absolute Return more than
offset negative impacts from active management in Non-US Developed and underweight positioning to Long Treasuries
For the trailing twelve months, TRS returned -1.3% versus the benchmark return of -1.8%− Active management in Real Assets, asset allocation value add from underweight positioning to Total USA and an overweight
to Other Absolute Return more than offset negative impacts from active management in Total USA
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1. Market Summary – Fourth Quarter 2018Fourth Quarter One Year Three Years Five Years Ten Years
Global Equity:TF USA Benchmark -14.3% -5.2% 9.0% 8.0% 13.2%MSCI EAFE + Canada Index -12.8 -14.1 3.1 0.3 6.2MSCI Emerging Markets Index -7.5 -14.6 9.3 1.6 8.0HFRI Fund of Funds Composite -5.0 -4.1 1.3 1.4 3.1State Street Private Equity Index (Qtr. Lagged) -3.0 15.0 12.9 11.8 14.4Global Equity Policy Benchmark -8.2 -4.3 8.3 5.6 10.3Stable Value:Bloomberg Barclays Long Treasury Index 4.2 -1.8 2.6 5.9 4.1HFRI Fund of Funds Conservative Composite -3.2 -0.9 1.7 1.7 2.73 Month LIBOR +2% 1.2 4.4 3.5 3.0 2.7Stable Value Policy Benchmark 2.2 -1.2 2.4 4.8 4.0Real Return:Bloomberg Barclays U.S. TIPS Index -0.4 -1.3 2.1 1.7 3.8NCREIF ODCE (Qtr. Lagged) 1.9 7.7 7.8 9.7 5.8Energy, Natural Resources & Infrastructure Benchmark 1.8 8.6 -- -- --Goldman Sachs Commodities Index -22.9 -13.8 0.5 -14.5 -5.8Real Return Policy Benchmark 1.5 6.2 6.8 7.2 7.5Risk Parity:Risk Parity Benchmark -5.7 -6.7 6.3 2.4 --Cash:90 Day U.S. Treasury 0.6 1.9 1.0 0.6 0.4TRS Policy Benchmark -4.5% -1.8% 7.0% 5.8% 8.7%
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2. Market Value Change
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3. Asset Allocation Detail
Note: Asset allocation information shown above is based upon PureView reporting. The excess returns shown above may not be a perfect difference between the actual and benchmark returns due entirely to rounding.
Market Value $ in millions)as of 12/31/2018 Interim
PolicyTarget
Relative toInterimPolicy Target
Long TermPolicy Target
Long TermPolicy
Ranges($) (%)Investment Exposure $145,891 100.3% 99.0% +1.3% 99.0% --Total U.S.A. $21,146 14.5% 18.2% -3.6% 18.0 13-23%Non-U.S. Developed $17,677 12.2% 13.2% -1.0% 13.0 8-18%Emerging Markets $12,920 8.9% 9.2% -0.3% 9.0 4-14%Directional Hedge Funds $5,678 3.9% 4.0% -0.1% 4.0 0-10%Private Equity $21,936 15.1% 13.9% +1.2% 13.0 8-18%Global Equity $79,357 54.6% 58.5% -3.9% 57.0 50-64%Long Treasuries $15,300 10.5% 11.2% -0.7% 11.0 0-20%Stable Value Hedge Funds $6,540 4.5% 4.0% +0.5% 4.0 0-10%Absolute Return (including OAR) $5,238 3.6% 0.0% +3.6% 0.0 0-20%Stable Value $27,079 18.6% 15.2% +3.4% 15.0 11-21%TIPS $4,394 3.0% 3.2% -0.2% 3.0 0-8%Real Estate $19,336 13.3% 12.0% +1.3% 14.0 9-19%Energy, Natural Resource and Inf. $8,461 5.8% 5.2% +0.7% 5.0 0-10%Commodities $64 0.0% 0.0% +0.0% 0.0 0-5%Real Return $32,255 22.2% 20.3% +1.9% 22.0 17-27%Risk Parity $7,201 5.0% 5.0% -0.0% 5.0 0-10%Risk Parity $7,201 5.0% 5.0% -0.0% 5.0 0-10%Cash $1,943 1.3% 1.0% +0.3% 1.0 0-5%Asset Allocation Leverage -$2,425 -1.7% 0.0% -1.7% -- --Net Asset Allocation -$482.2 -0.3% 1.0% -1.3% 1.0 --Total Fund $145,409 100% --- 100.0% --
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4. Total TRS Performance Ending 12/31/2018
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5. Total Fund Attribution – One Quarter Ending 12/31/2018
Net Asset Allocation Leverage*
* Negative value represents average leverage exposure during the period
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5. Total Fund Attribution – One Year Ending 12/31/2018
Net Asset Allocation Leverage*
* Negative value represents average leverage exposure during the period
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6. Risk Profile: Total Fund Risk-Return vs. Peers
Note: Public Plan peer group composed of 34 and 32 public funds with total assets in excess of $10B as of 12/31/2018 respectively for the periods above. An exhibit outlining the asset allocation of the peer portfolios is provided in the appendix of this report.
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6. Risk Profile: Trailing 3-Year and 5-Year Risk Metrics Peer Comparison
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7. Global Equity: Performance Summary Ending 12/31/2018
Note: The excess returns shown in this presentation may differ from State Street statements due entirely to rounding. These differences are generally within a few basis points and are not material.
Fourth Quarter One Year Three YearsTotal Global Equity -8.4% -4.4% 7.9%Global Equity Benchmark -8.2 -4.3 8.3Difference -0.2 -0.1 -0.4Total U.S. Equity -14.2 -6.2 7.8Total U.S. Equity Benchmark -14.3 -5.2 9.0Difference +0.1 -1.0 -1.2Non-U.S. Equity -11.4 -14.2 5.1Non-U.S. Benchmark -10.6 -14.2 5.7Difference -0.8 +0.0 -0.6Non-U.S. Developed -14.0 -14.3 2.1MSCI EAFE + Canada -12.8 -14.1 3.1Difference -1.2 -0.2 -1.0
Emerging Markets -7.6 -14.1 9.5MSCI Emerging Markets -7.3 -14.4 9.3Difference -0.3 +0.3 +0.2
Five Years
5.6%5.6
+0.0
6.48.0
-1.6
1.41.0
+0.4
0.90.3
+0.6
2.2
1.7
+0.5
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7. Global Equity: Performance Summary Ending 12/31/2018 (cont’d)Fourth Quarter One Year Three Years Five Years
Directional Hedge Funds -6.8% -4.7% 2.4% 1.4%
HFRI Fund of Funds Composite Index -5.0 -4.1 1.3 1.4
Difference -1.8 -0.6 +1.1 +0.0
Total Public Equity -12.0 -10.1 6.0 3.5
Public Equity Benchmark -11.6 -9.6 6.7 3.9
Difference -0.4 -0.5 -0.7 -0.4
Total Private Equity 2.8 15.2 13.8 13.5
Private Equity Benchmark 2.9 14.6 12.9 11.8
Difference -0.1 +0.6 +0.9 +1.7
Note: The excess returns shown in this presentation may differ from State Street statements due entirely to rounding. These differences are generally within a few basis points and are not material.
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8. Stable Value: Performance Summary Ending 12/31/2018Fourth Quarter One Year Three Years
Total Stable Value 2.0% -0.2% 4.0%
Total Stable Value Benchmark 2.2 -1.2 2.4
Difference -0.2 +1.0 +1.6
Long Treasuries 4.1 -1.7 3.0
Treasury Benchmark 4.2 -1.8 2.6
Difference -0.1 +0.1 +0.4
Stable Value Hedge Funds -1.5 2.2 4.6
Hedge Funds Benchmark -3.2 -0.9 1.7
Difference +1.7 +3.1 +2.9
Other Absolute Return 0.6 4.6 6.8
Other Absolute Return Benchmark 1.2 4.4 3.5
Difference -0.6 +0.2 +3.3
Note: The excess returns shown in this presentation may differ from State Street statements due entirely to rounding. These differences are generally within a few basis points and are not material.
Five Years
6.5%4.8
+1.7
6.5
5.9
+0.6
4.7
1.7
+3.0
8.3
3.0
+5.3
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9. Real Return: Performance Summary Ending 12/31/2018Fourth Quarter One Year Three Years Five Years
Total Real Return 1.4% 7.8% 9.4% 8.8%
Real Return Benchmark 1.5 6.2 6.8 7.2
Difference -0.1 +1.6 +2.6 +1.6
TIPS -0.5 -1.3 2.3 1.8
U.S. TIPS Benchmark -0.4 -1.3 2.1 1.7
Difference -0.1 +0.0 +0.2 +0.1
Real Estate 2.3 10.2 11.4 12.1
Real Estate Benchmark 1.9 7.7 7.8 9.7
Difference +0.4 +2.5 +3.6 +2.4
Energy, Natural Resource and Infrastructure 1.0 8.9 -- --
Energy and Natural Resources Benchmark 1.8 8.6 -- --
Difference -0.8 +0.3 -- --
Commodities -44.0 -29.0 3.3 -13.4
Commodities Benchmark -22.9 -13.8 0.5 -14.5
Difference -21.1 -15.2 +2.8 +1.1
Note: The excess returns shown in this presentation may differ from State Street statements due entirely to rounding. These differences are generally within a few basis points and are not material.
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10. Risk Parity: Performance Summary Ending 12/31/2018Fourth Quarter One Year Three Years
Total Risk Parity -6.2% -6.7% 7.2%
Risk Parity Benchmark -5.7 -6.7 6.3
Difference -0.5 +0.0 +0.9
Note: The excess returns shown in this presentation may differ from State Street statements due entirely to rounding. These differences are generally within a few basis points and are not material.
Five Years
4.4%
2.4%
+2.0
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11.Asset Allocation Leverage: Performance Summary Ending 12/31/2018Fourth Quarter One Year Three Years
Cash Equivalents 0.3 2.3 1.9
Cash Benchmark 0.6 1.9 1.0
Difference -0.3 +0.4 +0.9
Note: The excess returns shown in this presentation may differ from State Street statements due entirely to rounding. These differences are generally within a few basis points and are not material.
Five Years
2.7
0.6
+2.1
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Appendix – Supplemental Reporting
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TRS Commitment Levels vs. Peers (>$10 Billion) as of 12/31/2018
Note: The Public Plan peer universe had 34 observations for the fourth quarter 2018. TRS allocations may not sum to 100.0% which is entirely due to the impact of rounding
The chart below depicts the asset allocation of peer public funds with assets greater than $10 billion.
− The ends of each line represent the 95th and 5th percentile of exposures, the middle light blue and grey lines represent the 25th and 75th percentile of exposures, the purple square represents the median, and the green dot represents TRS exposure.
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Historical Excess Performance Ending 12/31/2018
Quarterly and Cumulative Excess Performance Total Fund vs. Total Fund Benchmark
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TRS Asset Growth
-10
10
30
50
70
90
110
130
150
170
Mar
ket V
alue
(Billi
ons)Total Fund Historical Growth (September 1997 - December 2018)
$145.4
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External Manager Program: Public Equity Performance as of 12/31/2018
Allocation ($ in billions)
FourthQuarter
OneYear
EP Total Global Equity $26.7 -11.1% -10.7%EP Global Equity Benchmark -- -10.3 -9.6Difference -- -0.8 -1.1EP U.S.A. $5.6 -13.9 -5.0EP U.S.A. Benchmark -- -14.3 -5.2Difference -- +0.4 +0.2EP Non-U.S. Developed $3.9 -15.1 -16.7MSCI EAFE + Canada Policy Index -- -12.8 -14.1Difference -- -2.3 -2.6EP Emerging Markets $5.8 -7.7 -15.8MSCI Emerging Markets Policy Index -- -7.3 -14.4Difference -- -0.4 -1.4EP World Equity $5.8 -12.7 -9.7EP World Equity Benchmark -- -12.7 -9.1Difference -- +0.0 -0.6EP Directional Hedge Funds $5.7 -6.8 -4.7HFRI Fund of Funds Composite Index -- -5.0 -4.1Difference -- -1.8 -0.6
Note: The excess returns shown in this presentation may differ from State Street statements due entirely to rounding. These differences are generally within a few basis points and are not material.
Three Years6.2%6.4-0.28.49.0-0.62.43.1-0.79.19.3-0.26.76.9-0.22.41.3
+1.1
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External Manager Program: Stable Value/Total Program Performance as of 12/31/2018
Allocation ($ in billions)
FourthQuarter One Year Three
Years
EP Total Stable Value $6.5 -1.5% 2.2% 4.7%
EP Stable Value Benchmark -- -3.2 -0.9 1.7
Difference -- +1.7 +3.1 +3.0
EP Stable Value Hedge Funds $6.5 -1.5 2.2 4.6
EP Stable Value Hedge Funds Benchmark -- -3.2 -0.9 1.7
Difference -- +1.7 +3.1 +2.9
Total External Public Program $33.3 -9.4 -8.5 6.1
EP External Public Benchmark -- -9.0 -8.0 5.7
Difference -- -0.4 -0.5 +0.4
Note: The excess returns shown in this presentation may differ from State Street statements due entirely to rounding. These differences are generally within a few basis points and are not material.
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Public Strategic Partnership Program (SPN): Performance Summary as of 12/31/2018
The Public SPNs in aggregate outperformed the benchmark during the first quarter and also over the trailing one and three-year periods.
Allocation ($ in billions)
FourthQuarter
OneYear
Three Years
Public Strategic Partnership $7.5 -8.7% -8.1% 6.0%Public SPN Benchmark -- -7.7% -6.8% 6.0%
Difference -- -1.0 -1.3 +0.0
Blackrock $1.9 -8.9% -6.4% 7.0%J.P. Morgan $2.0 -9.7% -10.6% 5.6%Neuberger Berman $1.8 -9.0% -8.8% 5.6%Morgan Stanley $1.8 -7.1% -6.3% 5.9%
Note: The excess returns shown in this presentation may differ from State Street statements due entirely to rounding. These differences are generally within a few basis points and are not material.
Proprietary & Confidential Investment advice and consulting services provided by Aon Hewitt Investment Consulting, Inc., an Aon Company. 24
Total Fund Performance Benchmark – 18.2% MSCI U.S.A. IMI, 13.2% MSCI EAFE plus Canada Index, 9.2% MSCI Emerging Markets Index, 4.0% HFRI FoF Composite Index, 13.9% State Street Private Equity Index (1 quarter lagged), 11.2% Blmb. Barc. Long Term Treasury Index, 4.0% HFRI FoF Conservative Index, 1.0% Citigroup 3 Mo. T-Bill Index, 3.2% Blmb. Barc. U.S. TIPS Index, 12.0% NCREIF ODCE Index (1 quarter lagged), 5.2% Energy and Natural Resources Benchmark, and 5.0% Risk Parity Benchmark
Global Equity Benchmark – 31.1% MSCI U.S.A. IMI, 22.6% MSCI EAFE plus Canada Index, 15.7% MSCI Emerging Markets Index, 6.8% HFRI FoF Composite Index, and 23.8% State Street Private Equity Index (1 quarter lagged)– TF U.S. Equity Benchmark - MSCI U.S.A. Investable Markets Index (IMI)– Emerging Markets Equity Benchmark – MSCI Emerging Markets Index– Non-US Developed Equity Benchmark– MSCI EAFE + Canada Index– Directional Hedge Funds – HFRI Fund of Funds (FoF) Composite Index– Private Equity Benchmark - State Street Private Equity Index (1 quarter lagged)
Benchmarks
Note: Returns and market values (based on account level) reported are provided by State Street. Net additions/withdrawals are reported on a gross (adjusted for expenses) total fund level as provided by State Street. All rates of return for time periods greater than one year are annualized. The excess returns shown in this presentation may differ from State Street statements due entirely to rounding. These differences are generally within a few basis points and are not material.
Proprietary & Confidential Investment advice and consulting services provided by Aon Hewitt Investment Consulting, Inc., an Aon Company. 25
Benchmarks (cont’d)
Stable Value Benchmark – 69.1% Blmb. Barc. Long Term Treasury Index, 24.7% HFRI FoF Conservative Index, and 6.2% Citigroup 3 mo. T-Bill.– US Treasuries Benchmark – Bloomberg Barclays Long Term Treasury Index– Stable Value Hedge Funds – HFRI Fund of Funds (FoF) Conservative Index– Other Absolute Return Benchmark - 3 Mo. LIBOR + 2%– Cash Benchmark - Citigroup 3 Mo. Treasury Bill Index
Real Return Benchmark – 58.9% NCREIF ODCE Index, 15.7% Blmb. Barc. U.S. TIPS Index, and 25.4% Energy & Natural Resources Benchmark– Real Estate Benchmark – NCREIF ODCE Index (1 quarter lagged) – US TIPS Benchmark – Bloomberg Barclays U.S. TIPS Index– Energy and Natural Resources Benchmark – 75% Cambridge Associates Natural Resources Index (reweighted) and 25%
quarterly Seasonally-Adjusted Consumer Price Index (1 quarter lagged) – Commodities Benchmark – Goldman Sachs Commodity Index
Note: Returns and market values (based on account level) reported are provided by State Street. Net additions/withdrawals are reported on a gross (adjusted for expenses) total fund level as provided by State Street. All rates of return for time periods greater than one year are annualized. The excess returns shown in this presentation may differ from State Street statements due entirely to rounding. These differences are generally within a few basis points and are not material.
Proprietary & Confidential Investment advice and consulting services provided by Aon Hewitt Investment Consulting, Inc., an Aon Company. 26
Description of Performance Attribution A measure of the source of the deviation of a fund's performance from that of its policy benchmark. Each bar on the attribution
graph represents the contribution made by the asset class to the total difference in performance. A positive value for a component indicates a positive contribution to the aggregate relative performance. A negative value indicates a detrimental impact. Themagnitude of each component's contribution is a function of (1) the performance of the component relative to its benchmark, and (2) the weight (beginning of period) of the component in the aggregate.
The individual Asset Class effect, also called Selection Effect, is calculated as Actual Weight of Asset Class x (Actual Asset Class Return – Asset Class Benchmark Return)
The bar labeled Allocation Effect illustrates the effect that a Total Fund's asset allocation has on its relative performance. Allocation Effect calculation = (Asset Class Benchmark Return –Total Benchmark Return) x (Actual Weight of Asset Class –Target Policy Weight of Asset Class).
The bar labeled Other is a combination of Cash Flow Effect and Benchmark Effect:– Cash Flow Effect describes the impact of asset movements on the Total Fund results. Cash Flow Effect calculation = (Total
Fund Actual Return – Total Fund Policy Return) – Current Selection Effect – Current Allocation Effect– Benchmark Effect results from the weighted average return of the asset classes' benchmarks being different from the Total
Funds’ policy benchmark return. Benchmark Effect calculation = Total Fund Policy Return – (Asset Class Benchmark Return x Target Policy Weight of Asset Class)
Cumulative EffectCumulative Effect calculation = Current Effect t *(1+Cumulative Total Fund Actual Return t-1) +Cumulative Effect t-1*(1+Total Fund Benchmark Return t)
Proprietary & Confidential Investment advice and consulting services provided by Aon Hewitt Investment Consulting, Inc., an Aon Company. 27
Disclaimers and Notes
Proprietary & Confidential Investment advice and consulting services provided by Aon Hewitt Investment Consulting, Inc., an Aon Company. 28
Disclaimers and Notes
Disclaimers:
Please review this report and notify Aon Hewitt Investment Consulting (AHIC) with any issues or questions you may have with respect to investment performance or any other matter set forth herein.
The client portfolio data presented in this report have been obtained from the custodian. AHIC has compared this information to the investment managers’ reported returns and believes the information to be accurate. AHIC has not conducted additional audits and cannot warrant its accuracy or completeness. This document is not intended to provide, and shall not be relied upon for, accounting and legal or tax advice.
Refer to Hedge Fund Research, Inc. www.hedgefundresearch.com for more information on HFR indices
Notes:
The rates of return contained in this report are shown on an after-fees basis unless otherwise noted. They are geometric and time weighted. Returns for periods longer than one year are annualized.
Universe percentiles are based upon an ordering system in which 1 is the best ranking and 100 is the worst ranking.
Due to rounding throughout the report, percentage totals displayed may not sum up to 100.0%. Additionally, individual fund totalsin dollar terms may not sum up to the plan totals.
Proprietary & Confidential Investment advice and consulting services provided by Aon Hewitt Investment Consulting, Inc., an Aon Company. 29
Legal Disclosures and Disclaimers
Investment advice and consulting services provided by Aon Hewitt Investment Consulting, Inc. (“AHIC”). The information contained herein is given as of the date hereof and does not purport to give information as of any other date. The delivery at any time shall not, under any circumstances, create any implication that there has been a change in the information set forth herein since the date hereof or any obligation to update or provide amendments hereto.
This document is not intended to provide, and shall not be relied upon for, accounting, legal or tax advice or investment recommendations. Any accounting, legal, or taxation position described in this presentation is a general statement and shall only be used as a guide. It does not constitute accounting, legal, and tax advice and is based on AHIC’s understanding of current laws and interpretation.
This document is intended for general information purposes only and should not be construed as advice or opinions on any specific facts or circumstances. The comments in this summary are based upon AHIC’s preliminary analysis of publicly available information. The content of this document is made available on an “as is” basis, without warranty of any kind. AHIC disclaims any legal liability to any person or organization for loss or damage caused by or resulting from any reliance placed on that content. AHIC. reserves all rights to the content of this document. No part of this document may be reproduced, stored, or transmitted by any means without the express written consent of AHIC.
© Aon plc 2019. All rights reserved.
Dale West, Sr. Managing DirectorApril 2019
Teacher Retirement System of Texas
Overview of Public Equity
Investment Management Division
2
Overview
• Public Equity in the Trust
• 2018 Performance
• Addressing Active Management in the US
• Growing the Internal Quantitative Portfolios
• Spotlight: Internal Fundamental Emerging Markets
• Priorities
3
G l o b a lEq u i t y
5 5 %
Philosophy
• Active Management: We believe active management will add value over time
• Factors: Targeting factors that are compensated in the long run, such as value, is a key active strategy
• Internal: We can manage certain strategies internally, and we prefer to do so where we are competitive with external managers and properly resourced
• External: When we don’t have internal capabilities, we can select external managers who will add value net of fees
• Efficient Markets: Active management is most successful in less efficient markets, including international and small caps
4Source: State Street Bank
G l o b a lEq u i t y
5 5 %
Global Equity’s role in the Trust:
Global Equity Overview
PUBLIC EQUITY PORTFOLIO
As of 12/31/18Assets Assets Team
Members(in billions) (percent of Trust)
Internal Quantitative $14.8 10.2 12
Internal Fundamental 9.2 6.3 24
External Manager 21.1 14.5 16
Passive & Transition 1.1 0.8
Total Public Equity $46.2 31.7 52
Global Equity Breakdown
5
$0B
$10B
$20B
$30B
$40B
$50B
$60B
$70B
Jun-13 Jun-14 Jun-15 Jun-16 Jun-17 Jun-18 CurrentDec-18
Internal Fundamental
Internal Quant
Passive
External Public Equity
Other (TAA, etc.)
Trust % 43% 42% 39% 40% 48% 36% 32%
Public Equity Over Time
Source: State Street Bank. Due to different reporting frameworks prior to 2017, asset amounts may vary slightly (<1%) from amounts originally reported.
• Public equity has remained roughly constant in value, but is a smaller percentage of the Trust
• With the creation of the Public Markets group in 2017, we reduced Internal Fundamental and External strategies in favor of Internal Quantitative and Passive portfolios
IMD Public Markets group created
Public Equity Allocation
6
54% 55% 52% 49% 51%
43% 46%
4% 3%5%
5% 2%11%
2%
2% 2% 5%7% 7%
26%
32%
40% 40% 38% 39% 39%
19% 20%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Jun-13 Jun-14 Jun-15 Jun-16 Jun-17 Jun-18 CurrentDec-18
Internal Fundamental
Internal Quant
Passive
External Public Equity
54%internallymanaged
Global Equity Best Practices: More Internal Management
Source: State Street Bank. Due to different reporting frameworks prior to 2017, asset amounts may vary slightly (<1%) from amounts originally reported.
• Internal Fundamental assets in US equity were redeployed to Internal Quantitative and Passive strategies
• Passive assets are gradually being redeployed into Internal Quantitative strategies
• Internal management troughed at 44% of Public Equity in 2012. Today it is 54%.
Public Equity Split by Strategy GroupIMD Public Markets group created
7
$0B $5B $10B $15B $20B $25B
Dec-18
Jun-17
Dec-18
Jun-17
Dec-18
Jun-17
Dec-18
Jun-17
Fundamental Quant Passive
80%18%
23%
2%
75%23%
80% 18%
2%
3%
74%
21%77%
75%
40%57%
3%
4%
2%
41%59%
66%34%
22%
22%
No
n-U
SD
eve
lop
ed
Eme
rgin
g M
arke
tsW
orl
d
Global Equity Best Practices: More Quantitative Investing
Source: State Street Bank
We have shifted to a larger proportion of quantitative versus fundamental strategies across Public Equity
In particular, we have reduced fundamental strategies in the US
Public Equity by Region ($AUM)
US
December 18
Quant:50%
June 17Passive: 2%
Fundamental:
47%
Quant:23%
Fundamental:75%
Passive: 3%
Public Equity
8
Public Equity Performance
Source: State Street Bank1Public Equity portfolio inception date is October 1, 2017. Since inception returns are annualized.
• Performance was disappointing in 2018
• Internal and external portfolios suffered from the underperformance of value strategies
• Emerging Markets (EM) alpha was positive. EM was the sole region where value outperformed.
Assets
(percent of Trust)10.3 -5.9 -68 -0.7 -129
-5.2 0.6
9.8 -14.9 -78 -9.0 -56
-14.1 -8.5
7.6 -14.3 +17 -6.3 +20
MSCI Emerging Markets -14.4 -6.5
World Equity 4.0 -9.7 -56 -3.6 -54
MSCI AC World -9.1 -3.1
Total Public Equity 31.7 -10.8 -52 -4.6 -61
-10.2 -4.0
Since Inception1
Return (%) Alpha (bp) Alpha (bp) Return (%)
Public Equity Policy Benchmark
5,766
$46,150
Public Equity Portfolios
As of 12/31/18
1-Year
US $15,026
MSCI US IMI
Assets
(in millions)
Non-US Developed 14,253
MSCI EAFE + Canada
Emerging Markets 11,106
9
1
10
100
1000
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
Cum
ulat
ive
Perf
orm
ance
(Gro
wth
of $
10)
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
Dra
wdo
wn
Value Performance
Source (Index Performance): BloombergSource (Charts): AQR; Stocks & Industries Value Factor data based on attribution of the Hypothetical Style Premia Standalone Factor Backtest which targets 12% volatility across each factor and is gross of trading costs, undiscounted, excess of cash returns. Data is from January 1, 1990 –December 31, 2018. Hypothetical data has inherent limitations. All performance figures contained herein are in USD unless noted otherwise.
Value Factor Performance Over the Long Term 2018 Equity Index Performance
Value works well over the long term...
...with periodic drawdowns
1-Year (%)
MSCI USA IMI Value -7.9
Growth -2.6
Difference -5.3
MSCI EAFE + Canada Value -15.1
Growth -13.1
Difference -2.0
MSCI Emerging Markets Value -10.7
Growth -18.3
Difference 7.6
MSCI All-Country World Value -10.8
Growth -8.1
Difference -2.7
10
Addressing Active Management in the US
Source: TUCS
• US equity markets have been a difficult area for active management
• Institutional investors have been more successful in international markets
Percent of Institutional Managers Outperforming Benchmark Over 3 Years (June Year-end)
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
% o
f To
tal
US Non-US Developed Emerging Markets
11
Successful Active Management in the US
• The active management challenge in the US has been most severe among fundamental “stock pickers.” We believe that in certain limited areas, US active management still makes sense:
o Quantitative strategies including factor-based portfolios
o Activism
o Less efficient market segments such as small cap
• For example, activist and quantitative managers in the US External Manager portfolio have outperformed since inception. We have increased the proportion of these target strategies.
o We have also reduced the number of external managers (from 12 to 8)
December 2018 - $5.0 billion
Activist Quant FundamentalSources: State Street Bank, TRS1Net returns during TRS investment period versus IPS benchmarks through December 2018. Does not include global managers, pre-IPO, Special Opportunities, or emerging managers. Inception is date of the first manager hire for each strategy group: Activist (9/1/2007), Quant (11/1/2009), and Fundamental (3/1/2009).
June 2017 - $6.3 billion
Activist Quant Fundamental
US External ManagersUS External ManagersInvested Annualized Alpha1 (bp) 2018
SinceInception
Activist +491 +226
Quant +188 +205
Fundamental -827 -231
12
USA62%
EAFEC 24%
EM15%
Multi-Factor
USA48%
EAFEC 39%
EM13%
Low Volatility
USA60%
EAFEC 30%
EM10%
Quantitative Equity Strategies
Source: State Street Bank. Alpha versus the blended benchmarks of each mandate.
Internal Quantitative Strategies
Internal Quant(As of 12/31/2018)
Quantitative Equity Strategies Low Volatility Multi-Factor
Alpha Strategy40+ models covering multiple
timeframes, factors, and weightingmethodologies
Low Beta anomaly and volatility risk premium
Equal expression of multiple compensated risk premiums
Assets (in millions) $6,058 $4,076 $4,691
Regional Focus/BenchmarkDeveloped Region/Sector and Emerging
Country ModelsUS, EAFEC, and EM US, EAFEC, and EM
Inception Dates2009 (Strategic and Dynamic) and 2012
(Macro Distance)2013 (US) and 2016 (EAFEC and EM) 2017
Alpha, Since Inception +140bp +285bp -21bp
13
Bringing Internal Quantitative Portfolios to Target Size
Source: State Street Bank
$0
$2
$4
$6
$8
$10
$12
$14
$16
$18
$20
6/30/2017 12/31/2018 9/30/2019Projected
Ass
ets
(bill
ion
s)Internal Quantitative Portfolios
Quantitative Equity Strategies USA High Quality Low Volatility Multi-Factor
32% ofPublic Equity
~37% ofPublic Equity
7% ofPublic Equity
14
Multi-Factor: Performance vs. Peers September 2017 – January 2019
Source: Bloomberg1Multi-Factor Program Weighted Average for each firm (55% USA; 28% Non-US Developed; 17% Emerging Markets).
USA Non-US Developed Emerging MarketsTOTAL1
• Challenged performance across the Multi-Factor Universe of Providers (negative annualized excess return in all three regions)
FIRM Excess Returns (bp)
Peer 1 +101
Peer 2 +83
Peer 3 -8
TRS Multi-Factor -40
Peer 4 -53
PEER AVERAGE -121
Peer 5 -214
Peer 6 -278
Peer 7 -479
FIRM Excess Returns (bp)
Peer 1 +95
Peer 2 +93
TRS Multi-Factor -38
Peer 4 -94
PEER AVERAGE -198
Peer 3 -198
Peer 5 -360
Peer 6 -392
Peer 7 -584
FIRM Excess Returns (bp)
Peer 3 +183
Peer 1 +124
Peer 5 +65
Peer 2 +47
PEER AVERAGE -5
Peer 4 -23
Peer 6 -29
TRS Multi-Factor -162
Peer 7 -405
FIRM Excess Returns (bp)
TRS Multi-Factor +157
Peer 3 +154
Peer 2 +108
Peer 1 +84
Peer 4 +38
PEER AVERAGE -53
Peer 5 -191
Peer 7 -249
Peer 6 -312
15
Emerging Markets: Spotlight on Internal Fundamental
Source: State Street Bank
• The Internal Fundamental EM portfolio outperformed by +317bp in 2018, extending a successful long-term track record
• The portfolio is now $3.1 billion. We added approximately $400 million in 2017 as part of our increase in internal strategies.
• Shayne McGuire is the portfolio manager, assisted by four sector specialists and an analyst
• Key decisions that led to outperformance in 2018:
o Adopted a more defensive position after the 34% EM rally in 2017
o Emphasized countries with resilient current accounts
o Reduced exposure to high-flying Chinese tech and consumer stocks
o Focused on quality with a value tilt throughout the portfolio
Internal Fundamental Emerging MarketsCumulative Excess Return Since 2007
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
16
Public Markets Top Priorities for 2019
• Bring Internal Quantitative portfolios to full allocations
• Position US portfolio for long-term success
• Improve measurement of decision making in Internal Fundamental with analyst stock ratings and tracking of portfolio management decisions
• Buildout of Internal US Small and Mid-Cap portfolio
APPENDIX
18
Public Markets Senior Leadership Team
• Three distinct groups with one leadership team
• One comprehensive view of portfolio construction
• Improved communication and alignment
• Compensated on one result
Brad Gilbert, CFA, CAIASr. Director, Hedge FundsBBA, UT Austin
Joel Hinkhouse, CFADirectorMBA, University of Chicago
KJ Van Ackeren, CFA Sr. Director MBA, Texas Christian University
Patrick Cosgrove, CFA Sr. Director MBA, St. Mary’s University
Joe Tannehill, CFASr. Investment ManagerMBA, UNC Chapel Hill
Mohan Balachandran, PhDSr. Managing DirectorPhD, Physics, Brown University
Dale West, CFASr. Managing DirectorMBA, Stanford
Ashley Baum, CFA, CPASr. Investment ManagerMPA Accounting, UT Austin
Matt Talbert, PhDSr. Investment Manager PhD, Economics, UT Austin
Mark Albert, CFASr. DirectorMBA, University of Michigan
19
Internal Fundamental Team
David DeStefano, CFA Sr. Director MBA, UT Austin
Ralph Linn, CFA Sr. Director MBA JD, Tulane University
Shayne McGuire Director MBA & MA, UT Austin
Michael Poustovoi, CFA Sr. Investment ManagerMBA, Oklahoma City University
Jared Ryan, Sr. AssociateBS, Trinity University
Chad White Sr. Associate MS, University of Tulsa
Monica LarsonExecutive Assistant
Jeremy Aston, CFA Sr. Associate MBA, UT Austin
Richard Campbell, CFA Sr. Investment ManagerMBA, UT Austin
Lee Carter, CFA Investment Manager MBA, Rice University
Mark Cassens, CFA Sr. Investment ManagerMBA, UT Austin
Frank Crown, CFA Sr. Investment Manager BAA, Georgia State University
Richard Garchitorena, CFA Investment Manager MBA, University of Toronto
Marissa Hogan Sr. Investment Manager MBA, Babson College
Ran Huo, CFA Sr. Associate MBA, Rice University
Adam Kogler, CFA Sr. AssociateMS, University of Florida
Stacey Peot, CFA Sr. Investment Manager MBA, UT Austin
Derek Sbrogna, CFA Investment Manager MBA, UT Austin
Khoi Tran Investment Manager BA, UT Austin
Joseph Vaughan, Sr. Analyst BA, UT Austin
John Watkins, Sr. Investment Manager MS, Johns Hopkins, MBA, UT Austin
Jackson Wu, Investment Manager MBA, Rice University
KJ Van Ackeren, CFA Sr. Director MBA, Texas Christian University
Patrick Cosgrove, CFA Sr. Director MBA, St. Mary’s University
EXPERIENCE SUMMARY15 CFA Charter Holders21 Masters Degrees
Portfolio Management Fundamental Research
20
Internal Quantitative Team
EXPERIENCE SUMMARY4 PhDs7 Masters Degrees2 CFA Charter Holders
Mohan Balachandran, PhDSr. Managing DirectorPhD, Physics, Brown University
Wayne Speer, CFASr. Investment ManagerMBA, SMU
Anthony PaoliniAssociateBBA, MPA UT Austin
Solomon GoldInvestment ManagerMS, Economics, UT Austin
Jingshan Fu, PhDInvestment ManagerPhD, Demography, Harvard University
ANALYTICS/ RESEARCH
Mark Albert, CFASr. DirectorMBA, University of Michigan
Matt Talbert, PhDSr. Investment Manager PhD, Economics, UT Austin
Ryan LearySr. AssociateMBA, Rice University
Paul WaclawskyJr. AnalystBS, AccountingUniversity of Maryland
Gabriel Salinas, PhDSr. AssociatePhD, Economics UT Austin
Kyle SchmidtSr. Investment ManagerMBA, SMU
Sudhanshu Pathak “Sunny”Sr. AssociateMS, Operations ResearchColumbia University
21
External Manager Team
Brad Gilbert, CFA, CAIASr. Director, External Public MarketsBBA, UT Austin
Joel Hinkhouse, CFADirector, External Public MarketsMBA, University of Chicago
Joe Tannehill, CFASr. Investment ManagerMBA, UNC Chapel Hill
INVESTMENTS TEAM ANALYTICS
Lulu Llano, CFASr. Investment ManagerBBA, UT Austin
Steven Wilson, CAIASr. Investment ManagerMBA, Rice University
Scott Gonsoulin, CFAInvestment ManagerMS, Texas A&M
Kevin TaylorSr. AssociateMS, UT Austin
Michael IjehSr. AnalystBBA, Texas Tech
Cason Beckham, CFA, CAIA, CIPMSr. AssociateBBA, Texas A&M
Patty SteinwedellSr. AnalystBA, North Carolina State
Lamont ColterSr. AnalystBS, Texas State University
RELATIONSHIP MANAGEMENT
Jon KlekmanAnalystBA, SUNY Binghamton
EXPERIENCE SUMMARY7 CFA Charter Holders3 CAIAs6 Masters Degrees
Jordyn BeatySr. AnalystBBA, University of Georgia
John Hall, CFAInvestment ManagerMBA, London Business School
Lauren GellhausSr. AnalystBBA, UT Austin
Irma MartinezAnalyst, ContractorBBA, St. Edwards
22
Legislative Authority Detail for Agency AgreementsAs of December 31, 2018
Source: State Street Bank
• TRS is limited by law to 30% Agency Agreement authority. 12.8% is currently utilized.
External Managers Agency LP Total Agency LP Total Agency LP Total
US Portfolio 3 10 13 $1.5 $4.1 $5.6 1.0% 2.8% 3.8%
Non-US Developed 4 3 7 $1.9 $2.0 $3.8 1.3% 1.4% 2.6%
Emerging Markets 7 2 9 $4.5 $1.3 $5.8 3.1% 0.9% 4.0%
World Equity 2 4 6 $2.6 $3.1 $5.8 1.8% 2.2% 4.0%
Total Equity 16 19 35 $10.5 $10.5 $21.0 7.2% 7.2% 14.4%
Public Markets SPN 4 4 $7.5 $7.5 5.2% 5.2%
Other 3 3 $0.5 $0.5 0.4% 0.4%
Totals 23 19 42 $18.6 $10.5 $29.0 12.8% 7.2% 20.0%
# of Portfolios Assets ($ billion) Percentage of Trust
23
$0B
$5B
$10B
$15B
$20B
$25B
Jun-11 Jun-12 Jun-13 Jun-14 Jun-15 Jun-16 Jun-17 Jun-18 CurrentDec-18
Internal Fundamental USA LC
Internal Fundamental Pre-IPO
Internal Fundamental USA SMID
Internal Quant
Passive
External Public USA/World
External Public USA LC
External Public USA SC
US Equity Strategies
Source: State Street. Due to different reporting frameworks prior to 2017, asset amounts may vary slightly (<1%) from amounts originally reported.
• US-focused external assets have been reduced from a peak of $10 billion to $5.6 billion
• The Internal Small and Mid-Cap (SMID) portfolio launched recently
• The Trust is underweight US equity
Public Markets US Equity IMD Public Markets group created
Trust-Level US Equity ($B) Jun-11 Jun-12 Jun-13 Jun-14 Jun-15 Jun-16 Jun-17 Jun-18
Current
Dec-18
Total Public Markets US Equity 17.6 17.6 20.4 22.6 24.9 23.0 24.3 23.7 18.2
Other US Equity 9.2 4.4 2.2 3.3 3.2 2.6 1.5 3.0 2.9
Total US Equity 26.7 22.0 22.6 25.9 28.1 25.6 25.9 26.6 21.1
% of Trust 24.3% 20.2% 19.5% 19.9% 21.4% 19.8% 18.2% 17.6% 14.5%
Trust USA Policy Allocation 25.0% 20.0% 20.0% 20.0% 18.0% 18.0% 18.0% 18.0% 18.0%
Overweight/Underweight Policy -0.7% 0.2% -0.5% -0.1% 3.4% 1.8% 0.2% -0.4% -3.5%
24
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Brad Gilbert, Senior DirectorApril 2019
Teacher Retirement System of Texas
Annual Update on Hedge Funds
Investment Management Division
2
Overview
• Total hedge funds have outperformed policy benchmarks over all time periods
• Both hedge fund portfolios have delivered on their objectives since they were split into separate
portfolios in 2011
• Hedge funds offer a differentiated return source to the Trust
• Hedge funds make up 8.5% of Trust assets
3
Performance Update
• Hedge funds delivered muted absolute returns in 2018, but provided downside protection in a weak equity environment
• Strong long-term alpha performance since inception
o Over 1 year, Total Hedge Funds added $143 million in value versus policy benchmarks
o Over 3 years, Total Hedge Funds added $628 million in value versus policy benchmarks
o Since inception, Total Hedge Funds added $951 million in value versus policy benchmarks
• Diversification effect has been additive
o Hedge funds contribute 2.6% to trust-level VaR at 8.5% of assets
Source: State Street Bank1Total Trust hedge fund assets are $12.4B, or 8.5% of Trust assets, including assets in the Risk Parity portfolio that are classified as hedge funds and reported with that portfolio. The current legislative cap for total Trust hedge fund assets is 10%.
-4.8 -67 2.4 +112 4.0 +127
-4.1 1.3 2.8
2.2 +300 4.6 +292 4.2 +145
-0.9 1.7 2.8
Total Hedge Funds 1 -1.2 +115 3.5 +198 4.1 +131
-2.4 1.5 2.8
3-Year
Return (%) Alpha (bp)
$12,218
Total Hedge Funds Benchmark
Stable Value Hedge Funds $6,540
HFRI Fund of Funds Conservative
(in millions)
Directional Hedge Funds $5,678
HFRI Fund of Funds Composite
Assets
Hedge Fund Portfolio
As of 12/31/18
1-Year Since Inception (Oct. 2011)
Alpha (bp) Return (%) Alpha (bp) Return (%)
4
Stable Value Hedge Fund Portfolio
Sources: State Street Bank, BloombergNote: Performance is annualized and is net of fees1Dates: October 2011 (inception) to December 20182MSCI All Country World Index3Bloomberg Barclays US Long Treasury Total Return Index4HFRI Fund of Funds Conservative Index
Stable Value Hedge Fund Objectives Status Details
Hedge Fund TypesFocus on absolute return hedge funds
• Return: 4.3%1
• Sharpe Ratio: 1.5
Market Sensitivity and Risk Core strategies have low to negative market sensitivity
• Correlation to Global Equities2: 0.1• Beta to Global Equities: 0.0
Market Regime PerformanceExpected to have positive returns when markets are down
• Outperformed equities in every down month for stocks, by an average of 2.8%
• Positive returns in 62% of 29 down equity months since October 2011
Performance versus US Treasuries Expected to outperform US Treasuries over the long term
• 4.3% return versus Treasuries3 2.9%• 2.6% volatility versus Treasuries 10.2%• Current 10-year Treasury yield-to-maturity: 2.7%
Performance versus BenchmarkStable Value HF benchmark4 with target tracking error of 4%
• 1.5% ahead of Stable Value HF benchmark since inception
• Tracking Error: 2.4%
5
Stable Value Hedge Fund: 2018 Performance in Context
Sources: State Street Bank, BloombergNote: Beta versus global equities since October 2011
Stable Value Hedge Funds delivered on their goals in 2018: • Positive performance despite weak equity market returns• Outperformed benchmark• Outperformed Treasuries
2018 Performance Stable Value 2018 Summary
Stable Value
Hedge Funds
Stable Value HF
Benchmark
US Treasuries Stable Value HF
Benchmark
US Treasuries
Return 2.2% -0.9% -1.8% +304 +402
Volatility 3.8% 2.7% 10.1%
Beta 0.0 0.1 -0.3
Excess Returns (bp)
-10%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
+2%
+4%
+6%
Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Stable Value HF Stable Value HF Benchmark US Treasuries Global Equities
+2.2%
-9.1%
-1.8%
-0.8%
6
Directional Hedge Fund Portfolio
Directional Hedge Fund Objectives Status Details
Hedge Fund TypesFocus on equity and market sensitive hedge funds
• Return: 4.0%1
• Correlation to Global Equities: 0.8• Sharpe Ratio: 0.7
Market Sensitivity and Risk Core strategies have moderate market sensitivity (beta) and lower risk (volatility) than equities
• Beta to Global Equities: 0.4• Directional HF Volatility: 5.1%• Global Equities Volatility: 11.6%
Market Regime PerformanceExpected to outperform equities when markets are down, but will underperform strong markets
• Outperformed equities in 90% of down months for stocks, by an average of 1.6%
• Inception to date return of 4.0% versus Global Equities 9.5%
Performance versus US Treasuries Expected to outperform US Treasuries over the long term
• 4.0 % versus Treasuries 2.9%• Current 10-year Treasury yield-to-maturity: 2.7%
Performance versus BenchmarkDirectional HF benchmark2 with target tracking error of 6%
• 1.3% ahead of Directional HF benchmark since inception
• Tracking Error: 2.3%
Sources: State Street Bank, BloombergNote: Performance is annualized and is net of fees1Dates: October 2011 (inception) to December 20182HFRI Fund of Funds Composite Index
7
Directional Hedge Fund: 2018 Performance in Context
Sources: State Street Bank, BloombergNote: Beta versus global equities since October 2011
Directional Hedge Funds were mixed versus their goals in 2018: • The portfolio protected capital in a down market (-4.7%
vs. -9.1% for global equities)• The portfolio underperformed its benchmark • The portfolio had less than half the volatility of equities
2018 Performance Directional 2018 Summary
Directional
Hedge Funds
Directional HF
Benchmark
Global Equities Global Equities
Beta Adjusted
Directional HF
Benchmark
Global Equities
Beta Adjusted
Return -4.7% -4.0% -9.1% -4.0% -72 -79
Volatility 6.1% 4.6% 13.5% 4.9%
Beta 0.4 0.2 1.0 0.4
Excess Returns (bp)
-10%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
+2%
+4%
+6%
Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Directional HF Directional HF Benchmark Beta Adjusted Global Equities Global Equities
-3.2%
-9.1%
-4.7%
-4.1%
8
This slide is intentionally left blank.
9
Priorities
• Support legislative process
• Review hedge fund portfolio construction
• Assist Strategic Asset Allocation study
• Implement changes stemming from Strategic Asset Allocation study
APPENDIX
11
Hedge Fund Timeline through December 31, 2018
TRS makes initial allocation to HFs; 2% of Trust
TRS HF allocation increased to 4%, with a Legislative cap
of 5% of Trust
TRS HF Legislative cap is increased to 10% of Trust; introduction of
Directional HF portfolio
TRS current HF allocation is $12.2B, or 8% of Trust
12
Why Hedge Funds: Stable Value
Sources: State Street Bank, BloombergNote: Performance is annualized and is net of fees1Dates: October 2011 (inception) to December 20182Citigroup 3-month Treasury Bill
Stable Value Policy Allocation Risk-Adjusted Returns1
S t a b l e Va l u e1 6 %
Treasuries 11%Stable Value Hedge Funds 4%
Cash 1%
• Hedge funds are a key asset in the Trust’s Stable Value allocation
• Stable Value Hedge Funds have been the best performing asset in absolute and risk-adjusted terms since the hedge fund portfolio split in 2011
Stable Value Hedge Funds Sharpe = 1.5
US Treasuries Sharpe = 0.2
Cash2
Sharpe = 0.0
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12%
An
nu
aliz
ed R
etu
rn
Annualized Volatility
13
Why Hedge Funds: Stable Value
Sources: State Street Bank, BloombergNote: Performance is annualized and is net of fees
Protection in down markets... ...while contributing less risk
14
Why Hedge Funds: Directional
Sources: State Street Bank, BloombergNote: Performance is annualized and is net of fees1Dates: October 2011 (inception) to December 2018
Directional HF Policy Allocation
Diversification versus Global Public Equity1
Jensen’s Alpha Comparison1
46% Public Equities:USA 18%
Non-US Developed 14%Emerging Markets 10%
Directional Hedge Funds 4%
15% Private Equity
G l o b a l E q u i t y5 8 %
When Equities are down
When Equities are up
Monthly Returns of Public Equities Portfolios1
1
James Nield, Chief Risk OfficerApril 2019
Teacher Retirement System of Texas
Investment Risk Report
Investment Management Division
2
Risk Metric Value In Compliance? Page(s)1. Asset Allocation (AA): Underweight Global Equity Underweight 3.9% 3 - 5
2. Drawdown Risk: VaR estimate declined 6.0% VaR 6 - 8
3. Tracking Error: Total Trust TE stable 149 bp 9 - 10
4. Leverage: Trust AA Net leverage stable 111.7% Gross, 100.3% Net 11 - 13
5. Liquidity: Remained strong 9.4 Coverage Ratio 14
6. Counterparty Risk: Within Policy limit Lowest Rating: BBB+ 15
7. Derivatives Exposure: Increased slightly 21.4% Gross 16 - 17
8. Securities Lending: Earnings decreased 37.2% utilization 18
Agenda
Unless otherwise noted, data presented as of December 31, 2018
3
-10%
10%
30%
50%
70%
90%
110%
Q4-18Q2-18Q4-17Q2-17Q4-16Q2-16
Global Equity Stable Value Real Return Risk Parity Net AA Leverage
54.6%
18.6% 22.2%
5.0%
58.5%
15.2%
20.3%
5.0%1.0%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Global Equity Stable Value Real Return Risk Parity Net AALeverage
Benchmark in italics
-0.3%
Trust asset allocation in line with policy
Asset Class Weights
Source: State Street Bank; note: net AA leverage is -0.3%, which indicates the Trust is levered by 0.3%
Asset Class Weights Trend
4
-3.9%
3.4%
1.9%
-1.3%
-10%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
Q1-16 Q2-16 Q3-16 Q4-16 Q1-17 Q2-17 Q3-17 Q4-17 Q1-18 Q2-18 Q3-18 Q4-18
Global Equity Stable Value Real Return Risk Parity Net AA Leverage
Trust remained underweight Global Equity
Relative Asset Class Positions Through Time
Source: State Street Bank; relative positions shown in comparison to quarter-end Trust benchmark weights as defined in policy
5
Global Equity UW 3.9% Stable Value OW 3.4% Real Return OW 1.9%
-3.6%
-1.0%
1.2%
-0.3%
-0.1%
-5.0% -2.5% 0.0% 2.5% 5.0%
USA
Non-US Developed
Private Equity
Emerging Markets
Directional HF
-0.7%
0.5%
3.6%
-1.3%
-5.0% -2.5% 0.0% 2.5% 5.0%
US Treasury
Stable Value HF
Absolute Return
Net AA Leverage
1.3%
0.7%
-0.2%
0.0%
-5.0% -2.5% 0.0% 2.5% 5.0%
Real Estate
ENRI
US TIPS
Commodities
Stable Value overweight driven by Absolute Return allocation
Source: State Street Bank; private credit allocation included in Absolute Return
6
6.0%
5.5%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
Q4-18Q2-18Q4-17Q2-17Q4-16Q2-16
Total Fund Benchmark Policy Max / Min
54.6%
81.0%
0% 50% 100%
% of Assets
% of VaR
Global Equity
18.6%
-5.3%
-10% 0% 10% 20% 30%
% of Assets
% of VaR
Stable Value
5.0%
3.9%
-10% 0% 10% 20% 30%
% of Assets
% of VaR
Risk Parity
22.2%
20.3%
0% 10% 20% 30%
% of Assets
% of VaR
Real Return
VaR estimate declined to 6.0%
VaR History
Source: State Street Bank
7
0.0%
3.0%
5.8%
13.3%
0.1%
-0.3%
6.9%
13.7%
-10% 0% 10% 20% 30%
Commodities
US TIPS *
ENRI
Real Estate
% of VaR % of Assets
3.9%
8.9%
15.1%
12.2%
14.5%
2.0%
15.7%
25.4%
18.0%
19.8%
-10% 0% 10% 20% 30%
Directional HF *
Emerging Markets
Private Equity
Non-US Developed
USA
% of VaR % of Assets
-0.3%
3.6%
4.5%
10.5%
0.8%
0.6%
-6.7%
-10% 0% 10% 20% 30%
Net AA leverage
Absolute Return *
Stable Value HF *
US Treasury *
% of VaR % of Assets
Stable Value assets are a key source of diversification
* These assets contribute less risk than their dollar allocationSource: State Street Bank
Global Equity Stable Value Real Return
8
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
Worst GFC MonthOct '08
Dot Com BurstJul '98 - Aug '98
Bond CrashFeb '94 - May '94
Taper TantrumMay - Jun '13
Sovereign DebtCrisis
Aug '11
Asian CrisisJul '97
Q4 2018 Dot Com BubbleNov '99 - Jan '00
EM Asia RallyJan '99 - May '99
Best GFC MonthApr '09
Total Fund Benchmark
Trust expected to perform in line with benchmark
Scenario Analysis
Source: State Street Bank; note: data shown are predicted drawdowns given current allocation, except for Q4 2018, which reflects realized performance
9
149
78
0
40
80
120
160
200
Q1-16 Q2-16 Q3-16 Q4-16 Q1-17 Q2-17 Q3-17 Q4-17 Q1-18 Q2-18 Q3-18 Q4-18
bp
Total Trust Forecast Tracking Error Public Market Stand Alone Forecast Tracking Error
Forecasted Trust tracking error stayed stable
Source: State Street Bank
10
78
0
100
200
300
400
500
Total Public US TIPS Non-USDeveloped
USA Equity Directional HF Stable ValueHF
Risk Parity EmergingMarkets
bp
Current Forecast TE 3-Year Realized TE Policy Maximum Policy Neutral
0
150
300
450
600
750
900
1050
TotalPrivate
PrivateEquity
Real Assets ENRI
bp
Current Forecast TE 3-Year Realized TE
Public portfolio forecast tracking error below policy neutral
Source: State Street Bank; current forecast tracking error uses past experiences from January 1, 2008 to December 31, 2018 and therefore includes the effects of the Global Financial Crisis
Public Private
11
111.7%
100.3%
80%
90%
100%
110%
120%
130%
Q4-18Q2-18Q4-17Q2-17Q4-16Q2-16
Total TrustGross Leverage Net Leverage
Source: State Street Bank; note: total Trust leverage excludes securities lending which is reported separately; net leverage includes adjustments for delta-notionalization of options and exclusion of spot forwards of 30 days or less
Trust Net AA leverage stable
12
250%
189%
0%
100%
200%
300%
Q4-18Q2-18Q4-17Q2-17Q4-16Q2-16
Risk ParityGross Leverage Net Leverage
192%
118%
0%
100%
200%
300%
Q4-18Q2-18Q4-17Q2-17Q4-16Q2-16
Public Strategic PartnersGross Leverage Net Leverage
Risk Parity and SPN net strategy leverage ticked up
Source: State Street Bank
13
34%
48%
46%
57%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Q3-18Q1-18Q3-17Q1-17Q3-16Q1-16
Real Estate Loan to ValueCore Value-Added Opportunistic Real Asset Special Situation
573%
3%
-200%
0%
200%
400%
600%
800%
Q4-18Q2-18Q4-17Q2-17Q4-16Q2-16
Hedge FundGross Leverage Net Leverage
Hedge Fund and Real Estate strategy leverage range bound
Source: MSCI RiskMetrics, State Street Bank, TRS RE manager data; note: hedge fund leverage data sourced from Risk Metrics as of Q3 2018 with historical data available thru Q3 2017. State Street data shown prior to that date
14
9.4
0
4
8
12
Q4-18Q2-18Q4-17Q2-17Q4-16Q2-16
Sour
ces/
Use
s
Liquidity RatioSources of Liquidity ($, billions)
Market Value
Stressed Value
Internal Cash 1.9$ 1.9$ US Treasuries and TIPS 19.9 18.9 Other Liquid Assets (Equity, Commodities) 50.7 26.2 Risk Parity 7.2 4.8 Total Sources of Liquidity 79.8$ 51.9$
Note: Excluded Illiquid Private Assets and Hedge Funds 65.7$ NA
Uses of Liquidity ($, billions)
Market Value
Stressed Value
Operational Uses of Liquidity (0.1)$ (0.3)$ Stressed Securities Lending (2.4) Stressed Non-collateralized assets - Stressed Derivatives (0.5) Stressed Private Markets (2.3) Total Uses of Liquidity (0.1)$ (5.5)$
Liquidity RatioRatio (Sources/Uses) 9.4Alert Threshhold 2.0Test Result Pass
Note: Net Stressed Liquidity (Sources less Uses) 46.4$ Note: Past 12 Months of Benefit Payments 4.0$
Trust liquidity remained strong
Source: State Street Bank, TRS IMDAssumptions: The stress case assumes liquid assets experience 1.5x the worst rolling monthly return since 2008 plus an additional liquidity stress. Operational uses of liquidity reflects the lesser of forecasted cash flows or monthly benefit payments. Stressed securities lending reflects potential costs associated with termination including a liquidity stress. Stressed non-collateralized assets and derivatives reflect margin calls based on the same market stress applied to Liquid Assets. Private Market investments are assumed to return half as much capital as currently planned and experience capital calls equivalent to total unfunded commitments in equal installments over the course of 12 months.
15
OTC Counterparty Over the CounterBank of America, N.A. A+ Aa3 AA- $0.0
Barclays Bank PLC A A2 A+ 0.0
BNP Paribas SA A Aa3 A+ 14.7
CIBC A+ Aa2 AA- 0.0
Citibank N.A. A+ A1 A+ 0.0
Credit Suisse International A A1 A- 0.0 copy from derivaties
Deutsche Bank AG BBB+ A3 A- 0.0
Goldman Sachs International A+ Aa3 A 24.1
JPMorgan Chase Bank N.A. A+ Aa1 AA 0.0
Macquarie Bank Limited A A1 A 0.1
Morgan Stanley A+ Aa3 A 11.2
Societe Generale A A1 A 0.0
The Toronto-Dominion Bank AA- Aa1 AA- 0.0
UBS AG A+ Aa2 AA- 4.3
FCM Counterparty Exchange Traded Futures
Credit Suisse Securities (USA) LLC A NR NR $211.9
Goldman Sachs & Co A+ NR A+ 157.2JP Morgan Securities LLC A+ Aa3 AA 86.7
Securities Lending/Custodian
State Street Bank AA- Aa1 AA
S&P Moody's
S&P
Exposure
Moody's Fitch
Fitch
Exposure
S&P Moody's Fitch
Paste Into PPT
80
208
-
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
Q4-18Q2-18Q4-17Q2-17Q4-16Q2-16bp
Average Counterparty CDS Lowest Rated Counterparty CDS
Counterparty Risk within Policy limits
Source: State Street Bank, Bloomberg; OTC counterparty exposure represents positive market value of all OTC derivative positions less collateral posted; Futures Commission Merchant (FCM) counterparty exposure reflects margin posted
16
21.4%
0%
20%
40%
Q1-16 Q2-16 Q3-16 Q4-16 Q1-17 Q2-17 Q3-17 Q4-17 Q1-18 Q2-18 Q3-18 Q4-18
Gross Notional by Instrument (% of Total Trust)Swaps Futures Forwards Options
6.7%
-20%
0%
20%
Q1-16 Q2-16 Q3-16 Q4-16 Q1-17 Q2-17 Q3-17 Q4-17 Q1-18 Q2-18 Q3-18 Q4-18
Net Notional by Instrument (% of Total Trust)Swaps Futures Forwards Options
Gross derivative notional exposure increased slightly
Source: State Street Bank; note: derivative positions represent transactions in which TRS is a counterparty; net leverage includes adjustments for delta-notionalization for options and exclusion of spot forwards of 30 days or less
17
VaR Contribution from Derivatives
● Total Gross = $31.1b ● Total Net = $9.8b
Gross vs Net Derivatives Notional by Portfolio
6.0%
0.3%0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
Q4-18Q2-18Q4-17Q2-17Q4-16Q2-16
Total Trust VaR Contribution from Derivatives
-$10
$0
$10
$20
$30
$40
SPN Risk MSG PrivateMarkets
ExternalManagers
Total
$, b
illio
ns
Gross Net
Derivatives contributed small portion of drawdown risk
Source: State Street Bank; derivative positions represent transactions in which TRS is a counterparty. Note: net leverage includes adjustments for delta-notionalization of options and exclusion of spot forwards of 30 days or less
18
This slide is intentionally left blank.
19
In conclusion, key points are the following:
• Trust was levered by 0.3%
• Trust was underweight Global Equity
• Fourth quarter drawdown was in line with benchmark
• Stressed (monthly) liquidity ratio remained strong
• Risk metrics were within desired parameters
© 2019 All Rights Reserved
Reinhart Boerner Van Deuren s.c.1
Fiduciary Duties in the Strategic Asset
Allocation ProcessTeacher Retirement System of Texas
Board of Trustees Meeting
April 25, 2019
Reinhart Boerner Van Deuren s.c.
© 2019 All Rights Reserved
Reinhart Boerner Van Deuren s.c.2
Strategic Asset Allocation
• One of the most important decisions the Board makes
Board gets expert advice and delegates to staff, but is ultimately
responsible
• Importance of SAA requires evaluation of assumptions, plans and expectations,
whether starting from a clean slate or modifying current asset allocation policy
TRS process includes education, data, analysis, discussion and
documentation
• Time spent on review aligns with importance of SAA
The Trustees are reviewing the SAA over several meetings, with time for
diligence and reflection
© 2019 All Rights Reserved
Reinhart Boerner Van Deuren s.c.3
Fiduciary Duties in SAA Review
• Trustees have a duty to follow
Plan documents, statutes and legal requirements
• e.g., Statutory fiduciary duties, common law
• “The board shall develop and implement policies that clearly separate the policy-making
responsibilities of the board and the management responsibilities of the executive director
and the staff.” [Government Code § 825.113(b)]
TRS Policies
• Investment Policy Statement §1.6: asset-liability study at least once every 5 years
– Previous study completed in 2014
• Investment Policy Statement §1.4: Fund objectives include
– Control risk thru diversification and long-term risk/return expectations
– Achieve long-term returns that exceed actuarial assumed rate; rate of inflation by 5%;
and Fund Policy Benchmark
Fiduciary obligations apply throughout the process
© 2019 All Rights Reserved
Reinhart Boerner Van Deuren s.c.4
Fiduciary Duties in SAA Review – cont.
• Trustees must act with the ”judgment and care” that persons of “prudence, discretion and
intelligence” exercise in permanent investment of their funds under the prevailing
circumstances [Sec.67, Art. XVI, Texas Constitution]
Focus is on procedural process and is forward looking
Investment decisions are evaluated “in the context of the trust portfolio as a whole and as
a part of an overall investment strategy having risk and return objectives reasonably suited
to the trust.” [Government Code § 825.301(a) referencing Property Code § 117.004(b)]
• Duty of loyalty requires consideration of both short and long term liability obligations
When there are multiple beneficiaries, trustees owe the same fiduciary duty to protect all
of their interests, without partiality to some at the expense of others. [Texas Property
Code § 117.008]
© 2019 All Rights Reserved
Reinhart Boerner Van Deuren s.c.5
Strategic Asset Allocation Review
• TRS process incorporates Aon's strategic asset review allocation
best practice steps used by peers
[Aon and IMD Board meeting presentation slides (February 2019)]
1. Review/Update Long-
Term Objectives
4. Consider Implementation
Issues
2. Develop Forward Looking
Capital Market Assumptions
5. Adopt a New Target Asset
Allocation & Commitment
Ranges
3. Evaluate Alternative
Portfolios/Model Results
6. Implement and Monitor
© 2019 All Rights Reserved
Reinhart Boerner Van Deuren s.c.6
Important Process Considerations
• Trustee education
• Peer and industry
practices/expectations
• Unique TRS attributes
• Expert advice
• Adequate/accurate data
• Forward looking vision
• Changing circumstances
• Market scenarios
• Long-term objectives
• Risk tolerance
• Diversification
• Achieve 7.25% assumed rate of return
• Alternative options
• Risk/return balance
• Effect on contributions
• Funding/sustainability
• Cash flow constraints
• Implementation challenges and
options
[Aon and IMD Board meeting presentation slides (February 2019)]
© 2019 All Rights Reserved
Reinhart Boerner Van Deuren s.c.7
Deliberation
• Trustees are responsible for independent review and exercising their own judgment
Question staff, experts, fellow Board members
• Consider and raise issues from the perspective you bring to the Board
• There are no stupid questions
Is new SAA reasonable; supported by accurate data, careful analysis and expert
advice?
• Were relevant peer practices examined?
• Have risk and return expectations been addressed?
• Does it meet plan objectives and impartially serve participant obligations now
and over the long term?
• Can it be implemented?
• Ensure the decision of the Board is a composite of all Trustees' independent judgment
© 2019 All Rights Reserved
Reinhart Boerner Van Deuren s.c.8
Adoption of New SAA Plan
• Adopt new target allocations, variation ranges and any changes in
benchmarks
• Consider need for any related changes in statutes and TRS
practices
e.g., investment authority, cost/fee management, staffing,
technology, outsourcing
• Update Investment Policy Statement to reflect decisions as needed
© 2019 All Rights Reserved
Reinhart Boerner Van Deuren s.c.9
Implement and Monitor
• Ensure review process was documented
• Duty of prudence includes an ongoing duty to monitor
Continue to monitor effectiveness
Look out for changes in circumstances
• Avoid tactical or oversight micromanagement
• Raise questions; seek information and advice as needed
© 2019 All Rights Reserved
Reinhart Boerner Van Deuren s.c.10
Conclusion
The TRS plan for reviewing its Strategic Asset Allocation follows a
prudent process designed to address applicable fiduciary obligations.
Mohan Balachandran, Sr. Managing DirectorJames Nield, Chief Risk OfficerMatt Talbert, Sr. Investment ManagerApril 2019
Investment Management Division
Strategic Asset Allocation Study 2019
Teacher Retirement System of Texas
2
1
Agenda
Long-Term Asset Return Forecasts
Liquidity Measurement
3
2
4 Key Takeaways and Next Steps
Alternative Portfolios
3
Strategic Asset Allocation (SAA) Study
1 Update / Review Long-Term Objectives
What are long term goals? What has changed? What level of risk is tolerable?
February: review goals, market conditions, risk tolerance
Reviewed by GRS in 2018: Liability, liability risks, actuarial assumptions
2 Develop Forward Looking Capital Market Assumptions (CMA)
Which asset classes to add or eliminate? Develop return, risk, correlation assumptions
February: Preliminary CMA results Today: Review asset classes, finalized CMAs
3 Evaluate Alternative Portfolios / Model Results
Determine metrics for comparing alternatives Review benchmarks and ranges Consider practices of peers
February: Peer comparison, risk considerations Today: Comparing alternate portfolios July: Review Benchmarks
4 Consider Implementation Issues
Active vs. passive; currency hedging; internal vs. external
Review risk budgets Incorporate investor competitive advantages
July: Alpha assumptions, currency considerations, internal vs. external, risk tolerance & budgeting
5 Adopt a New Policy Asset Allocation & Commitment Ranges
Review current target relative to alternatives Formally adopt a new target in IPS
July: Review conclusions to SAA study; Board consider adoption of policy weights
September: Review and consider adoption of changes to Investment Policy: benchmarks, ranges, any other changes
6 Implementation and Monitoring
Design plan for implementation of any changes Monitor compliance with new targets and ranges
over time
Q4 2019: Execute on any changes Ongoing: Compliance monitoring, updating CMAs
Aon Best Practice TRS SAA Study Timeline
4
Capital Markets Assumptions – Key Assets
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
75%/25% Median
Source: Responses to TRS CMA Survey
Median Max Min
USA 6.4% 7.9% 1.7%
Non-US Dev 6.3% 8.6% 2.6%
Emerging Markets 7.3% 9.3% 5.1%
Directional Hedge Funds 5.2% 7.1% 4.5%
Private Equity 8.4% 13.3% 4.8%
US Treasury 3.1% 7.2% 0.4%
Stable Value Hedge Funds 4.5% 7.7% 2.9%
Inflation Linked Bonds 3.3% 4.5% 1.8%
Real Estate 8.5% 14.7% 5.6%
ENRI 7.3% 12.6% 4.9%
Risk Parity 5.8% 8.9% 2.9%
Cash 2.5% 3.3% 1.6%
Expected Total Trust 7.0% 10.4% 3.9%
Expected Inflation 2.1% 2.3% 1.7%
Long-Term Expected Returns
5
Current SAA Policy Framework
TRS Competitive Advantages
1. Large
2. Long-term
3. Liquid
4. Low Levered
5. Local
Source: TRS, Center for Retirement Research, Annual Reports. Global peers are 10 large Canadian pensions listed in appendix
S t a b l e Va l u e1 6 %
G l o b a l Eq u i t y5 7 %
R e a l R e t u r n2 2 %
TreasuriesStable Value Hedge Funds
CashAbsolute Return
Public Equities:USA
Non-US DevelopedEmerging Markets
Directional Hedge Funds
Private Equity
Global TIPSReal Estate & Other Real Assets
Energy & Natural ResourcesCommodities
REITS
Risk Parity 5%
Net Asset Allocation Leverage 1%
Peer Comparison
PortfoliosLong-Term
Return Forecast
Volatility Forecast
Expected Passive
Sharpe Ratio
Current TRS Policy 7.0% 11.3% 0.40
US Pension Peers 6.7% 12.0% 0.34
Endowment Peers 7.3% 12.2% 0.39
Global Peers 6.9% 9.8% 0.47
60/40 (Stocks/Bonds) 5.5% 8.8% 0.34
6
What could we do with our current SAA?
• Stay with current allocation
• Evaluate ways to facilitate increased alpha generation
• Strategies to improve returns:
1. Increase allocation to Private Markets
2. Use leverage to improve efficiency and balance of portfolio
• A combination of the above can raise the return but will impact:
1. Volatility
2. Drawdown
3. Liquidity
Liquidity
8
1
SAA Risk Metrics fit into 4 main categories
Return Distribution 32Stability of Returns Absolute Risk 4Operational
Average Return
Kurtosis
Median Return
Probability >7.25%
Rolling Returns
Skew
Asset Betas
Cycle Analysis
Diversification Index
Environmental Analysis
Volatility
Sharpe Ratio
Liquidity
Counterparty
Currency Exposure
Derivative Usage
Historical Scenarios
Hypothetical Scenarios
Median Drawdown
Max Drawdown
% Time in Drawdown
Value at Risk (VaR) Relative Risk
Tracking Error
Risk Contributions
Implementation
Items in blue will be discussed in more detail throughout the presentation
9
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Allo
cati
on
to
So
urc
es o
f Li
qu
idit
yAllocation to Illiquid Assets
Could the Trust have a 100% allocation to illiquid assets?
Answer: No
Liquid public market capital (Sources) needed to:
• Meet private market capital calls
• Meet operational needs
• Deploy capital opportunistically
• Make benefit payments
Trust’s ability to allocate to illiquid assets is informed by SAA Liquidity Stress Test:
Uses
Benefit Payment Reserves
Potential Capital Calls
Opportunistic Capital
Note: Operational needs include liquidity to settle trades, meet margin calls, etc.
Operational Capital
Long-Term Sources of Liquidity
Long-Term Uses of Liquidity
Current Policy Allocation
10
SAA Liquidity Stress Test indicates additional illiquidity merits more attention
If the SAA Liquidity Stress Test (Sources/Uses) is:
• Above 2: Excess capacity to allocate to illiquid assets
• Below 1: No additional capacity
• Between 1 and 2: Reduced capacity, which reflects liquidity needs while maintaining balance and flexibility
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Cap
acit
y to
Allo
cati
on
Mo
re t
o Il
liqu
id A
sset
s
Allocation to Illiquid Assets
Capacity to Allocate More to Illiquid Assets
Low
H
igh
1 to 2:Reduced capacity
Current Policy Allocation
Above 2:Excess
capacity
Below 1:No additional capacity
11
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Global Equity Stable Value Real Return
% o
f Tr
ust
Policy Range Neutral Post-Stress
64%
50%
21%
11%
27%
16%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Public Equity Private Equity
% o
f Tr
ust
Policy Range Neutral Post-Stress
49%
39%
18%
8%
One practical consideration is to widen policy range
Need to buy Public
Equities
Near minimum of Global Equity
Limited flexibility to deploy Real Return
Limited capacity to deploy Private Equity
1. After a stress event, we would have limited capacity to allocate capital to private markets
2. We may also be constrained at the major asset class level
Note: Assumes 50% drawdown in public equity (translating to a 33% drawdown in the Total Trust), $3.3B of capital calls in Private Equity funded from Stable Value, and $4.8B of capital calls in Real Estate and ENRI funded out of TIPS and Stable Value
Private Equity Example:• Pre-stress: PE = 20/150 = 13%• Post-stress: PE = 18/100 = 18%
Real Return Example:• Pre-stress: RR = 33/150 = 22%• Post-stress: RR = 26/100 = 26%
12
Liquidity key points
1. A long-term SAA Liquidity Stress Test informs our liquidity needs
2. SAA Liquidity Stress Test indicates any additional allocation to illiquid assets merits attention
3. Wider policy bands would provide:
• Increased capacity to deploy capital in a drawdown
• Flexibility to rebalance
Alternative Portfolios
14
Strategy 1: Increased Allocation to Private Markets
Private Premium is return of Private Equity minus USA Equity returnsSource: Bloomberg, TRS, State Street, Annual Reports
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
% o
f Fu
nd
Real Assets Private Equity
Global Pensions have higher allocation to Real Assets
• Global pensions have a similar total allocation to Private Markets to TRS, however they tend to allocate a higher fraction of total private assets to Real Assets (Real Estate, Energy, Natural Resources, and Infrastructure)
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
% o
f Fu
nd
Private Equity Public Equity
Endowments have higher allocation to Private Equity
20yr
Return
10yr
Return
Long-Term
Forecast
USA Equity 6.1% 13.3% 6.4%
Private Equity 11.0% 9.8% 8.4%
Private Premium 4.9% -3.5% 1.9%
15
Current
Policy Neutral
+5% Private
Equity
+5% Real
Assets
+10% Private
Markets Total
Long-Term Return Forecast 7.0% +0.11% +0.17% 7.3%
Long-Term Volatility Forecast 11.3% +0.17% +0.18% 11.6%
Trailing 20yr Return 7.4% +0.23% +0.19% 7.9%
Trailing 20yr Volatility 7.7% -0.59% -0.22% 7.0%
Max Historical Drawdown -26.4% +1.48% +0.61% -24.3%
SAA Liquidity Ratio 1.9 -0.2 -0.2 1.5
Impact of
Current Policy
Neutral
+5% Private
Equity
+5% Real
Assets
USA 18% -2.0% -1.0%
EAFE + Canada 13% -2.0% -1.0%
Emerging Markets 9% -1.0% 0.0%
Directional Hedge Funds 4% 0.0% 0.0%
Private Equity 13% +5.0% 0.0%
US Treasuries - Long 11% 0.0% 0.0%
Stable Value Hedge Funds 4% 0.0% 0.0%
Real Estate 14% 0.0% +2.5%
US TIPS 3% 0.0% -3.0%
ENRI 5% 0.0% +2.5%
Risk Parity 5% 0.0% 0.0%
Cash 1% 0.0% 0.0%
Asset Allocation Leverage 0% 0.0% 0.0%
Total Public 68% -5.0% -5.0%
Total Private 32% +5.0% +5.0%
Strategy 1: Increased Allocation to Private Markets
• For this example we look at the impact of increasing Private Equity and Real Assets (split evenly between Real Estate and ENRI)
• Increased allocation to Private Markets increases expected return but will decrease liquidity
Source: TRS. Total impact of changes may not be additive due to interaction effects
16
Strategy 2: Use Leverage to Add Balance and Make Trust More Efficient
• The use of strategy and asset allocation leverage allows the portfolio to be more efficient and balanced without reducing expected returns.
2A: More Efficient
o Change Directional Hedge Fund Benchmark to an equity benchmark and use derivatives to match beta
o Increase Risk Parity risk target to 12% volatility from 10% volatility
2B: More Balanced
o Diversify away from equity risk by levering non-equity assets
o Allocate additional capital to Risk Parity
17
Current Policy
Neutral
Change HF
Benchmark
Risk Parity to
12% Vol
USA 18% +2.0% 0.0%
EAFE + Canada 13% +2.0% 0.0%
Emerging Markets 9% 0.0% 0.0%
Directional Hedge Funds 4% -4.0% 0.0%
Private Equity 13% 0.0% 0.0%
US Treasuries - Long 11% 0.0% 0.0%
Stable Value Hedge Funds 4% 0.0% 0.0%
Real Estate 14% 0.0% 0.0%
US TIPS 3% 0.0% 0.0%
ENRI 5% 0.0% 0.0%
Risk Parity 5% 0.0% 0.0%
Cash 1% 0.0% 0.0%
Asset Allocation Leverage 0% 0.0% 0.0%
Total Public 68% 0.0% 0.0%
Total Private 32% 0.0% 0.0%
Strategy 2A: More Efficient
• Changing Hedge Fund benchmark increases overall beta of Global Equity sleeve
• Increasing the volatility target for Risk Parity increases return without requiring additional capital to be taken from other asset classes
Current Policy
Neutral
Change HF
Benchmark
Risk Parity to
12% Vol
More
Efficient Total
Long-Term Return Forecast 7.0% +0.05% +0.03% 7.0%
Long-Term Volatility Forecast 11.3% +0.21% +0.09% 11.6%
Trailing 20yr Return 7.4% +0.03% +0.07% 7.5%
Trailing 20yr Volatility 7.7% 0.43% 0.05% 8.2%
Max Historical Drawdown -26.4% -1.20% -0.16% -27.8%
SAA Liquidity Ratio 1.9 0.0 0.0 1.9
Impact of
Source: TRS. Total impact of changes may not be additive due to interaction effects
18
Current Policy
Neutral
Increase Risk
Parity
Lever
Diversifying
Assets
More
Balanced
Total
Long-Term Return Forecast 7.0% +0.05% +0.07% 7.1%
Long-Term Volatility Forecast 11.3% +0.20% -0.10% 11.4%
Trailing 20yr Return 7.4% +0.16% +0.24% 7.8%
Trailing 20yr Volatility 7.7% -0.11% -0.13% 7.5%
Max Historical Drawdown -26.4% +0.24% +0.55% -25.7%
SAA Liquidity Ratio 1.9 -0.0 +0.1 1.9
Impact ofCurrent Policy
Neutral
Increase Risk
Parity
Lever
Diversifying
Assets
USA 18% -1.0% 0.0%
EAFE + Canada 13% -1.0% 0.0%
Emerging Markets 9% -1.0% 0.0%
Directional Hedge Funds 4% 0.0% 0.0%
Private Equity 13% 0.0% 0.0%
US Treasuries - Long 11% -1.0% +4.0%
Stable Value Hedge Funds 4% 0.0% 0.0%
Real Estate 14% 0.0% 0.0%
US TIPS 3% -1.0% +1.0%
ENRI 5% 0.0% 0.0%
Risk Parity 5% +5.0% 0.0%
Cash 1% 0.0% 0.0%
Asset Allocation Leverage 0% 0.0% -5.0%
Total Public 68% 0.0% 0.0%
Total Private 32% 0.0% 0.0%
Strategy 2B: More Balanced
• Increasing Risk Parity and levering low-risk diversifying assets (US Treasuries and TIPs) improves returns while reducing historical drawdowns and volatility, providing more balance across regimes
Source: TRS. Total impact of changes may not be additive due to interaction effects
19
Bringing it all together
Target7.15%
Target7.25%
Target7.35%
Real Estate +1%ENRI +1%
Change Directional Hedge Fund Benchmark
Private Equity +1%
US Treasuries +5%Risk Parity +3%
Change Risk Parity Volatility to 12%
Private Equity +1%Real Estate +1%
US TIPs +3%
Increase Allocation to Private Markets
More Efficient
More Balance
7.15% Changes Plus:
7.25% Changes Plus:
7.0% Current Policy Plus:
1.
2A.
2B.
20
Current Policy
Neutral
Target
7.15%
Target
7.25%
Target
7.35%
Long-Term Return Forecast 7.0% 7.14% 7.25% 7.36%
Long-Term Volatility Forecast 11.3% 11.7% 11.6% 11.8%
Trailing 20yr Return 7.4% 7.7% 8.0% 8.2%
Trailing 20yr Volatility 7.73% 8.17% 7.73% 7.65%
Max Drawdown -26.4% -27.7% -26.3% -26.1%
SAA Liquidity Ratio 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.8
Current Policy
Neutral
Target
7.15%
Target
7.25%
Target
7.35%
Total Global Equity 57% 56% 54% 54%
Total Stable Value 15% 16% 21% 21%
Total Real Return 22% 22% 21% 25%
Total Risk Parity 5% 5% 8% 8%
Net Asset Allocation Leverage 1% 1% -4% -8%
Total Public 68% 66% 65% 63%
Total Private 32% 34% 35% 37%
Bringing it all together
Incremental increases to Private Markets decreases SAA Liquidity Ratio
Leverage allows the portfolio to achieve more balance among regime buckets, improving volatility and drawdown characteristics
Source: TRS
21
2019 SAA Study: Where are we going?
1 Update / Review Long-Term Objectives
What are long term goals? What has changed? What level of risk is tolerable?
February: review goals, market conditions, risk tolerance
Reviewed by GRS in 2018: Liability, liability risks, actuarial assumptions
2 Develop Forward Looking Capital Market Assumptions (CMA)
Which asset classes to add or eliminate? Develop return, risk, correlation assumptions
February: Preliminary CMA results Today: Review asset classes, finalized CMAs
3 Evaluate Alternative Portfolios / Model Results
Determine metrics for comparing alternatives Review benchmarks and ranges Consider practices of peers
February: Peer comparison, risk considerations Today: Comparing alternate portfolios July: Review Benchmarks
4 Consider Implementation Issues
Active vs. passive; currency hedging; internal vs. external
Review risk budgets Incorporate investor competitive advantages
July: Alpha assumptions, currency considerations, internal vs. external, risk tolerance & budgeting
5 Adopt a New Policy Asset Allocation & Commitment Ranges
Review current target relative to alternatives Formally adopt a new target in IPS
July: Review conclusions to SAA study; Board consider adoption of policy weights
September: Review and consider adoption of changes to Investment Policy: benchmarks, ranges, any other changes
6 Implementation and Monitoring
Design plan for implementation of any changes Monitor compliance with new targets and ranges
over time
Q4 2019: Execute on any changes Ongoing: Compliance monitoring, updating CMAs
Aon Best Practice TRS SAA Study Timeline
22
Key Takeaways and Next Steps
• Current Trust Policy is well-balanced and expected to return close to actuarial rate of return over the next twenty years
• The Policy improvements that could be prudently made include:
o Increase allocation to Private Markets
o Use leverage to improve efficiency and balance of portfolio
• These changes improve historical and forward-looking returns with limited impact on risk metrics
• The SAA Team will continue to explore these options, stress-test various scenarios, and will bring our final recommendation to the Board at the July meeting
• Additional research items:
o Modifying the Policy tactical bands to improve SAA liquidity
o Weights in ENRI Benchmark
APPENDIX
24
SAA Liquidity Stress Test Assumptions
• 58% public equity drawdown (asset betas to drawdown in table to left)
• Sources:
• Sources scaled according to % of liquid assets represented as of 12/31/18 Liquidity Report
• 10% leverage added as additional source and linearly scaled out of starting at 70% allocation to illiquid assets
• Uses:
• 3 years of benefit payments based on 2018 benefit payments
• Operational capital:
• Stressed securities lending estimated as 12% loss on pre-stress US Treasuries and TIPS allocation
• Stressed derivatives estimated as 1% loss on pre-stress liquid market assets
• Opportunistic capital is $7.5 billion of post-stress funds
• Total committed capital estimated as 50% of pre-stress private markets assets of which 33% are estimated to be called (for a total of 17% of pre-stress private markets assets)
Beta to Public
Equity Stress
USA 1.0
EAFE + Canada 1.0
Emerging Markets 1.0
Directional Hedge Funds 0.5
Private Equity 0.5
US Treasuries - Long 0.2
Absolute Return 0.8
Stable Value Hedge Funds 0.3
US TIPS 0.2
Real Estate 0.5
ENRI 0.5
Commodities 0.7
Risk Parity 0.8
Cash 0.1
25
SAA Liquidity Stress Test indicates additional illiquidity merits more attention
If SAA Liquidity Stress Test (Sources/Uses) is:
• Above 2: Excess capacity to allocate to illiquid assets
• Below 1: No additional capacity
• Between 1 and 2: Reduced capacity, which reflects liquidity needs while maintaining balance and flexibility
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Sou
rces
/ U
ses
Rat
io
Allocation to Illiquid Assets
SAA Liquidity Stress Test Thresholds
Low
H
igh
Excess capacity
Reduced capacity
No additional capacity
Current Policy Allocation
Cap
acit
y to
Allo
cati
on
Mo
re t
o Il
liqu
id A
sset
s
26
Weights in Target Return Portfolios
Current Policy
Neutral
Target
7.15%
Target
7.25%
Target
7.35%
USA 18% +1.0% 0.0% -1.0%
EAFE + Canada 13% +1.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Emerging Markets 9% +1.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Directional Hedge Funds 4% -4.0% -4.0% -4.0%
Private Equity 13% 0.0% +1.0% +2.0%
US Treasuries - Long 11% 0.0% +5.0% +5.0%
Stable Value Hedge Funds 4% +1.0% +1.0% +1.0%
Real Estate 14% +1.0% +1.0% +2.0%
US TIPS 3% -2.0% -3.0% 0.0%
ENRI 5% +1.0% +1.0% +1.0%
Risk Parity 5% 0.0% +3.0% +3.0%
Cash 1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Asset Allocation Leverage 0% 0.0% -5.0% -9.0%
Total Global Equity 57% 56% 54% 54%
Total Stable Value 15% 16% 21% 21%
Total Real Return 22% 22% 21% 25%
Total Risk Parity 5% 5% 8% 8%
Net Asset Allocation Leverage 1% 1% -4% -8%
Total Public 68% 66% 65% 63%
Total Private 32% 34% 35% 37%
27
Peer Universe
Endowment Peers
University AUM ($bn)
Harvard $39
UTIMCO $29
Yale $27
Stanford $27
Princeton $25
MIT $16
Michigan $12
Global Pension Peers
Pension AUM ($CAD bn) AUM ($USD bn)
Canada Pension Plan Investment Board
$356 $267
Caisse de dépôt et placement du Québec
$298 $224
Ontario Teachers $194 $146
PSP Investments $153 $115
British ColumbiaInvestment Management
$146 $110
Alberta Investment Management
$104 $78
Ontario Municipal $95 $71
Healthcare of Ontario $78 $59
Ontario Pension Board $27 $20
OPTrust $24 $18
Investment advice and consulting services provided by Aon Hewitt Investment Consulting, Inc., an Aon Company. Nothing in this document should be construed as legal or investment advice. Please consult with your independent professional for any such advice. To protect the confidential and proprietary information included in this material, it may not be disclosed or provided to any third parties without the approval of Aon.
Benchmarking Discussion Teacher Retirement System of Texas - First Quarter 2019
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Table of Contents
Section 1 Benchmarking Overview Section 2 TRS Current Benchmarks Section 3 Appendix
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Section 1: Benchmarking Overview
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Purpose & Types of Benchmarks Benchmarks are used to measure the performance of the Total Fund, asset classes, and individual managers over
various time periods and across methodologies to determine the effectiveness of implementation of an investment program
Benchmarks are Board approved, and form an important backbone of the incentive compensation program
There are many types of benchmarks that can be used to analyze relative performance of an investment
― Broad market (MSCI ACWI IMI Index)
― Style-specific (S&P 500 Value Index)
― Risk adjusted returns (vs. benchmark Sharpe ratio)
― Absolute return metric (i.e. 7% return target)
― Real return target (i.e. CPI + 3%)
― Peer universe (i.e. Public Funds >$1 billion)
Careful attention should be paid to appropriateness when selecting the benchmark for a given asset class, manager, or strategy
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Properties of a Valid Benchmark12
Specified in advance: the benchmark is specified prior to the start of an evaluation period and known to all interested parties
Appropriate: the benchmark is consistent with the manager’s investment style or area of expertise
Measurable: the benchmark’s return is readily calculable on a reasonably frequent basis
Unambiguous: the identities and weights of securities constituting the benchmark are clearly defined
Reflective of current investment opinions: the manager has current knowledge of the securities or factor exposures within the benchmark
Accountable: the manager is aware of and accepts accountability for the constituents and performance of the benchmark
Investable: it is possible to forgo active management and simply hold the benchmark
1 As per CFA Institute’s SAMURAI characteristics. The criteria commonly referenced as industry standard is based on research conducted by Jeffrey Bailey and others. Mr. Bailey published an initial paper titled “Are Manager Universes Acceptable Performance Benchmarks?” in the May-June, 1992, edition of the Financial Analysts Journal. 2 The criteria listed above mostly apply to publicly traded asset classes. Existing benchmarks for private assets (private equity, private real estate, hedge funds, etc.) lack the attributes of good benchmarks due to the inherent nature of these assets
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Benchmarking Principles
Aon Hewitt Investment Consulting’s (AHIC) benchmarking philosophy is built on research conducted by Sharpe and others and is consistent with Modern Portfolio Theory which identifies the market portfolio as the most efficient portfolio to own
We believe the benchmark for any asset class or strategy should include all, or substantially all, the investment opportunities in that particular market and be constructed without bias
Investors should stray away from the market portfolio only when they believe they are compensated to do so
It is important to note that there are certain markets, mainly the private markets, where broad published benchmarks either do not exist or are of limited value. In these markets, appropriate benchmarks would represent the opportunity cost of the allocation or mode of implementation
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Total Fund Benchmarking We believe the best Total Fund Policy Benchmark should be a passive representation of the broad asset classes
included in the established asset allocation policy
We believe that all benchmarks and policy allocations should be determined in advance
– Asset transition timelines and weights should be determined in advance
– If an investor decides to deviate from the policy allocation, the effect of maintaining an asset allocation which deviates from policy should be measured and reported (i.e. measure whether being overweight public equities detracted or added to overall performance for the Total Fund relative to the Policy Benchmark)
– If the policy allocation is determined to be no longer appropriate, the policy should be amended in advance of the change
– Changes to the asset class benchmarks should flow through to the Total Fund Policy Benchmark
Other Total Fund Benchmarks (mainly used for long-term periods: 20+ years):
– Absolute Return Target (i.e. Actuarial Assumed Rate of Return)
– Real Return Target
– Opportunity Cost Benchmark (e.g. mix of public stocks and bonds)
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Trends In Benchmarking
Transitioning to broader investment mandates
– All cap investment mandates within U.S. and non-U.S. equity (MSCI Investable Market Index)
– Global equity mandate as opposed to separate U.S. equity and non-U.S. equity components
Private equity
– Use of peer benchmarks
– Reduced premium over public equity “opportunity cost” index
• And utilization of a global equity index (i.e. U.S. & Non-U.S. benchmark) vs. U.S. equity index (i.e. Russell 3000 Index) as “opportunity cost” index
Private real estate
– Use of the NCREIF ODCI (vs. NPI) to benchmark core real estate exposure
– NCREIF ODCI + premium for non-core real estate
– To some extent utilization of a peer universe (challenges: depth of universe, timing of data availability, & applicability)
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Alternative Investments Benchmarking in Practice
Source: State Street Global Services, Alternative Benchmarking: The Choices and Challenges of Performance Measurement (July 2016). Based on a survey conducted by State Street among a subset of their asset-owner clients
Asset owners choose universe-based and asset class-specific benchmarks more frequently than market-based and absolute return based benchmarks
The choice is often based more on necessity and the investors’ audience than their actual performance
For private equity, investors are just as likely to choose a market-based benchmark as one that’s universe-based (peer group)
Within private debt, majority of investors use an asset-based benchmark as opposed to other benchmark types
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Section 2: TRS Current Benchmarks
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TRS Benchmark Evaluation
Asset Class Global Equity Stable Value Real Return Cash Risk Parity
Sub -Asset Class U.S Equity Non-U.S.
Equity Developed
Non-U.S. Equity
Emerging
Directional Hedge Funds
Private Equity
U.S. Treasuries
Stable Value HFs
Other Absolute Return
Real Estate U.S. TIPS Energy Nat. Res. Infra Commodities Cash Equiv. Risk Parity
Benchmark Custom MSCI U.S.A. IMI
Custom MSCI EAFE + Canada
Custom MSCI Emerg. Mkts.
HFRI FoF Composite
State Street Private Equity
BB Long-Term
Treasury
HFRI FoF Conserv
3 Mo. LIBOR +2%
NCREIF ODCE (lagged) BB U.S. TIPS
80% Cambridge +
20% CPI (lagged)
GS Commodity
90 Day Treasury bill
HFR Risk Parity Vol 10
Index
Long-Term Target 18% 13% 9% 4% 13% 11% 4% 0% 14% 3% 5% 0% 1% 5% Specified in Advance Appropriate Measurable Unambiguous Reflective Accountable Investable Overall View
AHIC Comments None Consider
adding small cap exposure
Consider adding small cap exposure
None None None None None Portfolio
includes non-core real estate
None Asset Weights May Change in
the Future None None None
Benchmark for Current Current Current
Include Allocation
Within Public EQ
Current Current Current Current
Evaluate Potential
Return Premium
Current Current Current Current Current Consideration
Property of the benchmark is valid Property of the benchmark is nuanced Property of the benchmark is not valid
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Section 3: Appendix
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U.S. Equity: Custom MSCI U.S.A. IMI*
Benchmark: Covers 2,414 securities of the large, mid, and small cap U.S. equity market, the index is customized to include only securities that are investable by TRS
Pros: Broad diversified equity market coverage meeting the requirements of a valid benchmark
Opinion: AHIC views the MSCI U.S.A IMI as the best available domestic equity benchmark available
Recommendation: Maintain the Custom MSCI U.S.A. IMI as the primary benchmark
Asset Class U.S. Equity
Benchmark Custom MSCI U.S.A.
IMI Long-Term Target 18% Specified in Advance Appropriate Measurable Unambiguous Reflective Accountable Investable Overall View
AHIC Comments None
Recommended Benchmark Current
U.S.A 54.4%
Non U.S. Developed
35.1%
Non U.S. Emerging
10.5%
MSCI ACWI IMI
U.S.A 40.8%
Non U.S. Developed
34.2%
Non U.S. Emerging
25.0%
TRS Portfolio
Property of the benchmark is valid Property of the benchmark is nuanced Property of the benchmark is not valid
*The global public equity benchmarks are customized to exclude restricted securities that TRS may not invest in
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Non-U.S. Developed Equity: Custom MSCI EAFE + Canada*
Benchmark: Includes 1,012 large and mid cap stocks across developed market countries including Canada, the index is customized to include only securities investable by TRS
Pros: Broad diversified non-U.S. developed market equity market coverage meeting the requirements of a valid benchmark
Cons: The index does not include small cap securities, which represent approximately 15% of the opportunity set
Opinion: Consider adding small cap exposure and moving to the IMI version of the benchmark
Recommendation: Maintain Custom MSCI EAFE + Canada as the primary benchmark
Asset Class Non U.S. Developed
Equity
Benchmark Custom MSCI EAFE +
Canada Long-Term Target 13% Specified in Advance Appropriate Measurable Unambiguous Reflective Accountable Investable Overall View
AHIC Comments Consider adding small cap exposure
Recommended Benchmark Current
U.S.A 54.4%
Non U.S. Developed
35.1%
Non U.S. Emerging
10.5%
MSCI ACWI IMI
U.S.A 40.8%
Non U.S. Developed
34.2%
Non U.S. Emerging
25.0%
TRS Portfolio
*The global public equity benchmarks are customized to exclude restricted securities that TRS may not invest in
Property of the benchmark is valid Property of the benchmark is nuanced Property of the benchmark is not valid
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Non-U.S. Emerging Equity: Custom MSCI Emerging Markets*
Benchmark: With 1,125 constituents, captures large and mid cap stocks across 24 Emerging Market countries, base index is customized to include only securities investable by TRS
Pros: Broad diversified emerging market equity market coverage meeting the requirements of a valid benchmark
Cons: The index does not include small cap securities, which represent approximately 15% of the opportunity set
Opinion: Consider adding small cap exposure and moving to the IMI version of the benchmark
Recommendation: Maintain Custom MSCI Emerging Markets as the primary benchmark
Asset Class Non U.S. Emerging
Equity
Benchmark Custom MSCI
Emerging Mkts Long-Term Target 9% Specified in Advance Appropriate Measurable Unambiguous Reflective Accountable Investable Overall View
AHIC Comments Consider adding small cap exposure
Recommended Benchmark Current
U.S.A 54.4%
Non U.S. Developed
35.1%
Non U.S. Emerging
10.5%
MSCI ACWI IMI
U.S.A 40.8%
Non U.S. Developed
34.2%
Non U.S. Emerging
25.0%
TRS Portfolio
Property of the benchmark is valid Property of the benchmark is nuanced Property of the benchmark is not valid
*The global public equity benchmarks are customized to exclude restricted securities that TRS may not invest in
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Directional Hedge Funds: HFRI FoF Composite
Benchmark: An equal weighted index with over 800 constituents
Pros: Measurable and broadly diversified index that is specified in advance
Cons: The index is uninvestable and may not be reflective of the TRS portfolio (i.e. direct fund investments), also suffers from survivorship bias
Opinion: AHIC cites several potential shortcomings in the HFRI FoF Composite in that it includes multi-layered fee structures and is not passively investable
Recommendation: Consider including the strategies within the Directional Hedge Fund component within the public equity asset class, and measure their ability enhance the return profile of the equity portfolio over time
Asset Class Directional Hedge
Funds
Benchmark HFRI FoF Composite Long-Term Target 4% Specified in Advance Appropriate Measurable Unambiguous Reflective Accountable Investable Overall View
AHIC Comments None
Recommended Benchmark Include Allocation Within Public EQ
Long Short Equity 28.0%
Event Driven 24.4%
Fixed Income 20.1%
Multi- strategy 27.5%
TRS Portfolio
Property of the benchmark is valid Property of the benchmark is nuanced Property of the benchmark is not valid
Conserv FoFs
14.4%
Diversified FoFs
48.5%
Market Defensive
FoFs 4.4%
Strategic FoFs
32.6%
HFRI FoF Composite
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Private Equity: Custom State Street Private Equity
Benchmark: Global composite index representing 2,906 private equity limited partnerships with over $2.77 trillion in commitments
Pros: Broadly diversified and specified in advance
Cons: The index is not investable and may not be reflective of the opportunity set available to TRS
Opinion: AHIC cites several issues with the State St. Private Equity index but these are also found in other composite indices designed to measure the performance of these investments
Recommendation: Maintain the Custom State St. Private Equity index as the primary benchmark
Asset Class Private Equity
Benchmark State Street Private
Equity Long-Term Target 13% Specified in Advance Appropriate Measurable Unambiguous Reflective Accountable Investable Overall View
AHIC Comments None
Recommended Benchmark Current
Buyout 48.0%
Venture Capital 38.0%
Private Debt
14.0%
State Street Private Equity
Buyout 66.4%
Venture Capital 18.5%
Private Debt
10.8%
Emerging Mgrs 4.3%
TRS Portfolio
Property of the benchmark is valid Property of the benchmark is nuanced Property of the benchmark is not valid
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U.S. Treasuries: Bloomberg Barclays Long-Term Treasury
Benchmark: Includes all publicly issued U.S. Treasury securities that have a remaining maturity of 10 or more years, are rated investment grade, and have $250 million or more of outstanding face value
Pros: Complete coverage of the segment and meets the requirements of a valid benchmark
Opinion: AHIC views the Bloomberg Barclays Long-Term Treasury index as the best available long Treasury index
Recommendation: Maintain the Bloomberg Barclays Long-Term Treasury index as the primary benchmark
Asset Class U.S. Treasuries
Benchmark BB Long Term
Treasury Long-Term Target 11% Specified in Advance Appropriate Measurable Unambiguous Reflective Accountable Investable Overall View
AHIC Comments None
Recommended Benchmark Current
U.S. Treasuries
100.0%
Bloomberg Barclays Long Term Treasury Index
U.S. Treasuries
100.0%
TRS Portfolio
Property of the benchmark is valid Property of the benchmark is nuanced Property of the benchmark is not valid
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Stable Value Hedge Funds: HFRI FoF Conservative Composite
Benchmark: Seeks consistent returns by primarily investing in funds that generally engage in more conservative strategies such as equity market neutral, fixed income arbitrage, or convertible arbitrage, and exhibits a lower historical annual standard deviation than the HFRI FOF Composite
Pros: Appropriately reflective of the sectors represented in the TRS portfolio
Cons: The index is comprised of Fund of Funds while TRS holds direct fund investments, index also suffers from survivorship bias
Opinion: AHIC views the HFRI FoF Conservative Composite index as an appropriate stable value hedge fund index
Recommendation: Maintain HFRI FoF Conservative Composite as the primary benchmark
Asset Class Stable Value Hedge
Funds
Benchmark HFRI FoF
Conservative Long-Term Target 4% Specified in Advance Appropriate Measurable Unambiguous Reflective Accountable Investable Overall View
AHIC Comments None
Recommended Benchmark Current
CTA (Trend) 15.0%
Equity Market Neutral 34.9% Fixed
Income 12.1%
Macro & Volatility 22.4%
Multistrat 6.5%
Reinsure 9.1%
TRS Portfolio
Cons. Focus Fund
of Hedge Funds
100.0%
HFRI FoF Conservative
Property of the benchmark is valid Property of the benchmark is nuanced Property of the benchmark is not valid
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Other Absolute Return: 3 Mo. LIBOR + 2%
Benchmark: Measures the average interest rate at which leading banks borrow funds from other banks in the London market
Pros: LIBOR is the most widely used global benchmark for short term interest rates, and reflects the objective of the investments
Cons: Fails many of the tests used to determine benchmark appropriateness
Opinion: AHIC views the 3 Month LIBOR +2% index as an appropriate benchmark for the Other Absolute Return investments
Recommendation: Maintain the 3 Month LIBOR +2% index as the primary benchmark
Asset Class Other Absolute
Return
Benchmark 3 Mo. LIBOR +2% Long-Term Target 0% Specified in Advance Appropriate Measurable Unambiguous Reflective Accountable Investable Overall View
AHIC Comments None
Recommended Benchmark Current
Credit Related 73.4%
Non-Credit Related 26.6%
TRS Portfolio
Property of the benchmark is valid Property of the benchmark is nuanced Property of the benchmark is not valid
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Real Estate: NCREIF ODCE (Lagged)
Benchmark: A capitalization-weighted, time-weighted return series reflecting the net-of-fee performance of 36 open-ended diversified core real estate funds
Pros: Reflects the performance of open-ended diversified core real estate funds
Cons: Does not include non-core real estate exposures
Opinion: The benchmark could be refined by adding a return premium to account for the out-of-benchmark non-core real estate investments in the TRS portfolio
Recommendation: Evaluate adding a return premium over the ODCE
Asset Class Real Estate
Benchmark NCREIF ODCE
(Lagged) Long-Term Target 14% Specified in Advance Appropriate Measurable Unambiguous Reflective Accountable Investable Overall View
AHIC Comments Portfolio includes
allocations to non-core assets
Recommended Benchmark Evaluate Potential Return Premium
Core 100.0%
NCREIF ODCE Index
Core 35.9%
Value Added 14.5%
Opp. 31.0%
Special Situations
14.9%
Emerging Managers
2.6%
Other 1.0%
TRS Portfolio
Property of the benchmark is valid Property of the benchmark is nuanced Property of the benchmark is not valid
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U.S. TIPS: Bloomberg Barclays U.S. TIPS
Benchmark: Measures the performance of the US Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS) market, Federal Reserve holdings of U.S. TIPS are not index eligible
Pros: Accurate representation of the U.S. TIPS market and the opportunity set
Cons: Does not include non-U.S. TIPS
Opinion: AHIC views the Bloomberg Barclays U.S. TIPS index as an appropriate U.S. TIPS index
Recommendation: Maintain the Bloomberg Barclays U.S. TIPS index as the primary benchmark
Asset Class U.S. TIPS
Benchmark BB U.S. TIPS Long-Term Target 3% Specified in Advance Appropriate Measurable Unambiguous Reflective Accountable Investable Overall View
AHIC Comments None
Recommended Benchmark Current
U.S. TIPS 100.0%
Bloomberg Barc. U.S. TIPS Index
U.S. TIPS 77.9%
Non-U.S. TIPS
22.1%
TRS Portfolio
Property of the benchmark is valid Property of the benchmark is nuanced Property of the benchmark is not valid
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Energy, Natural Res., & Infra: 80% Cambridge + 20% CPI (Lagged)
Benchmark: A composite of private Cambridge benchmarks and inflation
Pros: Blended benchmark is measureable, includes similar investment types as TRS portfolio
Cons: The blended benchmark is not investable and may not be the most appropriate representation but other approaches are similarly flawed
Opinion: AHIC views the blended index as an appropriate for the Energy & Natural Resource asset class
Recommendation: Maintain the blended index as the primary benchmark
Asset Class
Energy, Natural Resources, and Infrastructure
Benchmark 80% Cambridge +
20% CPI Long-Term Target 5% Specified in Advance Appropriate Measurable Unambiguous Reflective Accountable Investable Overall View
AHIC Comments Asset Weights May
Change in the Future
Recommended Benchmark Current
Cambridge Inf.
40.0%
Cambridge Natural
Resources 40.0%
CPI (lagged) 20.0%
Blended Benchmark
Inf. 39.0%
Natural Resources
54.2%
Energy 6.8%
TRS Portfolio
Property of the benchmark is valid Property of the benchmark is nuanced Property of the benchmark is not valid
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Commodities: Goldman Sachs Commodity
Benchmark: Measures a fully collateralized production weighted commodity futures investment (24 nearby futures contracts) that is rolled forward from the fifth to the ninth business day each month
Pros: Broadly utilized as a representative measure of a (energy dominated) basket of commodities
Cons: TRS Portfolio currently holds gold, and is materially different from the benchmark
Opinion: AHIC views the Goldman Sachs Commodity index as an appropriate commodity index, and the gold position held within the portfolio as tactical
Recommendation: Maintain the Goldman Sachs Commodity index as the primary benchmark
Asset Class Commodities
Benchmark Goldman Sachs
Commodity Long-Term Target 0% Specified in Advance Appropriate Measurable Unambiguous Reflective Accountable Investable Overall View
AHIC Comments None
Recommended Benchmark Current
Energy 58.6%
Agriculture 18.3%
Livestock 7.5%
Ind. Metals 10.9%
Precious Metals 4.7%
Goldman Sachs Commodity Index
Gold 100%
Commodity Core
(Short 33%)
TRS Portfolio
Property of the benchmark is valid Property of the benchmark is nuanced Property of the benchmark is not valid
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Cash: 90 Day Treasury
Benchmark: Represents monthly return equivalents of yield averages of the last 3 month Treasury Bill issues
Pros: Reflects desired risk and liquidity profile
Opinion: AHIC views the 90 Day Treasury index as the best available cash equivalent index
Recommendation: Maintain the 90 Day Treasury index as the primary benchmark
Asset Class Cash
Benchmark 3 Mo. Treasury Long-Term Target 1% Specified in Advance Appropriate Measurable Unambiguous Reflective Accountable Investable Overall View
AHIC Comments None
Recommended Benchmark Current
U.S. Treasuries
100.0%
90 Day Treasury Bill
U.S. Treasuries
100.0%
TRS Portfolio
Property of the benchmark is valid Property of the benchmark is nuanced Property of the benchmark is not valid
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Risk Parity: HFR Risk Parity Vol. 10
Benchmark: Equal weighted composite of 14 risk parity strategies targeting 10% volatility
Pros: Reflects the targeted risk/return of the investment strategy
Cons: Index is uninvestable and may not be entirely reflective of the TRS portfolio
Opinion: AHIC views the HFR Risk Parity Vol. 10 index as the best available Risk Parity index
Recommendation: Maintain the HFR Risk Parity Vol. 10 index as the primary benchmark
Asset Class Risk Parity
Benchmark HFR Risk Parity Vol.
10 Long-Term Target 5% Specified in Advance Appropriate Measurable Unambiguous Reflective Accountable Investable Overall View
AHIC Comments None
Recommended Benchmark Current
Property of the benchmark is valid Property of the benchmark is nuanced Property of the benchmark is not valid
Externally Managed
40.8%
Internal Risk Parity
59.2%
TRS Portfolio $12m 7.1% $21m
7.1%
$204m 7.1%
$391m 7.1%
$471m 7.1%
$660m 7.1% $685m
7.1% $695m 7.1%
$1,338m 7.1%
$2,943m 7.1%
$3,038m 7.1%
$7,470m 7.1%
$8,086m 7.1%
$52,241m 7.1%
HFR RP Vol10 - Fund Sizes
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Alternative Investments Benchmarking Options Benchmark Options Example Pros Cons
Absolute return Cash (T-bill or LIBOR) or Inflation plus a risk premium
Reasonable measure of performance for an investment category with broad latitude as to what is included in it
Benchmark returns not directly related to traditional asset class returns
Does not measure opportunity cost Intended for long-term performance
measurement Difficult to measure success of implementation of
strategies Does not reflect success in diversifying the Total
Fund
Public market comparables with/without risk premium (opportunity cost)
MSCI ACWI IMI + 300 bps Captures market exposure and risk of certain private assets
Readily explainable to stakeholders Fully transparent as to composition of
benchmark Daily performance available with no lag
Uninvestable (return cannot be earned with a passive index-type investment, especially the premium)
No universally accepted “science” to size of risk premium over public indices
Not directly related to performance of alternative assets
Not ideal for short-term performance measurement
Universe (or peer-group) based
Burgiss (PE)1
NCREIF ODCE2 (RE) HFR3 suite of indices
(HFs)
Directly captures performance of (peer) alternative investments
Readily explainable Customizable to Client’s portfolio structure if
desired
Uninvestable Limited transparency Database biases and shortcomings
1 Burgiss Private iQ indices are based on the Burgiss Manager Universe, a quarterly-updated database and provides a wide variety of measures, including standard and public-market comparisons, including ICM, Kaplan-Schoar PME, and Direct Alpha
2 National Council of Real Estate Investment Fiduciaries (NCREIF) Open-End Diversified Core Equity (ODCE) Index is a capitalization-weighted (of about 30 open-end commingled funds), time-weighted return index that is most widely used to benchmark core private real estate 3 Hedge Fund Research (HFR) is the global leader in the indexation, analysis and research of the hedge fund industry. With over 150 indices ranging from broad composites down to specific, niche areas of sub-strategy and regional investment focus, the HFR suite of indices are considered the industry standard benchmarks of hedge fund performance
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Private Equity Benchmarking: Typical Approaches and Usage Portfolio Component Recommended Best Practice
(Metric) What’s Being Measured Pros Cons
Total Portfolio Public market + premium (TWR) Opportunity cost • Can be aggregated into total program performance
• Captures market exposure and risk of private equity
• Readily explainable and daily performance available with no lag
• TWRs can produce misleading returns for closed-end funds (capital not at work over entire measurement period)
• Only meaningful over long time horizons • Not investable
Total Portfolio Public market + premium (PME IRR)
Opportunity cost • IRR is a more meaningful metric for private equity
• Can’t be aggregated into total program • Only meaningful over long time horizons • Not investable
Vintage Year Performance
Peer universe by vintage year (IRR, TVPI, DPI)
Portfolio construction relative to opportunity set
• Meaningful metrics • Directly captures performance of
vintage year peers • Readily explainable • Customizable to Client’s portfolio
structure if desired
• Not investable • Limited transparency • Database biases and shortcomings
Fund Peer universe by strategy, vintage year and geography (IRR, TVPI, DPI)
• Fund selection • Fund manager skill
• Meaningful metrics • Directly captures performance of
peers by vintage year, geography and strategy
• Readily explainable
• Not investable • Limited transparency • Database biases and shortcomings
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Private Equity Benchmarking: Typical Approaches and Usage (Cont’d) Challenges of Private Equity Benchmarking: Unlike traditional market asset classes, there are no perfect or universally accepted
benchmarks for private equity investments.
‒ Varied cash flows and no daily valuations
‒ Performance takes time to materialize
Two major benchmarking options
‒ Public market index plus a premium
‒ Peer benchmark
Public market index plus a premium
‒ Measures the opportunity cost of the decision to invest in private equity
‒ Premium added to compensate for higher risk associated with illiquidity and other factors
‒ Unbiased measure
‒ Tends to be less meaningful in the early years of a private equity investment and can result in high tracking error over short term periods
Peer benchmark
‒ Customized portfolios to provide performance for like-invested funds (i.e., based on vintage years and geographical allocation)
‒ IRR is the standard performance metric provided
‒ Data typically only available on a 4-5 month lag
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Real Assets: Benchmarking Options Benchmark Options Example Attractive features Challenges
Absolute return (Current)
Cash (T-bill or LIBOR) or Inflation plus a risk premium Current = CPI + 4%
Reasonable measure of performance for an investment category with broad latitude as to what is included in it
Benchmark returns not directly related to traditional asset class returns
Does not measure opportunity cost Intended for long-term performance measurement Difficult to measure success of implementation of
strategies Does not reflect success in diversifying the Total
Fund
Strategy-Weighted Weighted average of benchmarks of investment strategies included in the Real Assets bucket (currently Real Estate, Infrastructure & Resources)
Good measure of shorter-term performance Directly captures performance of (peer)
alternative investments Readily explainable Customizable to Client’s portfolio structure if
desired
Does not measure opportunity cost Uninvestable Limited transparency Database biases and shortcomings Does not reflect success in diversifying the Total
Fund
Public market comparables with/without risk premium (opportunity cost)
MSCI ACWI IMI + 300 bps Captures market exposure and risk of certain private assets
Readily explainable to stakeholders Fully transparent as to composition of
benchmark Daily performance available with no lag
Not directly related to performance of alternative assets
Not ideal for short-term performance measurement Difficult to measure success of implementation of
strategies
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Legal Disclosures and Disclaimers
Investment advice and consulting services provided by Aon Hewitt Investment Consulting, Inc. (“AHIC”). The information contained herein is given as of the date hereof and does not purport to give information as of any other date. The delivery at any time shall not, under any circumstances, create any implication that there has been a change in the information set forth herein since the date hereof or any obligation to update or provide amendments hereto.
This document is not intended to provide, and shall not be relied upon for, accounting, legal, or tax advice. Any accounting, legal, or taxation position described in this presentation is a general statement and shall only be used as a guide. It does not constitute accounting, legal, and tax advice and is based on AHIC’s understanding of current laws and interpretation.
This document is intended for general information purposes only and should not be construed as advice or opinions on any specific facts or circumstances. The comments in this summary are based upon AHIC’s preliminary analysis of publicly available information. The content of this document is made available on an “as is” basis, without warranty of any kind. AHIC disclaims any legal liability to any person or organization for loss or damage caused by or resulting from any reliance placed on that content. AHIC. reserves all rights to the content of this document. No part of this document may be reproduced, stored, or transmitted by any means without the express written consent of AHIC.
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