investment criteria for--- airport surveillance radar · investment decisions are made . s ......
TRANSCRIPT
Investment Criteria for---U.S Denpartmetio Airport Surveillance RadarFederal Aviation (AS RIATrC RBSIA RTS)Administration
Office of AviationPolicy and Pl'ansWashington, D.C. 20591
DT
Besft AAilbl Copy98
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FAA-PO-3-5 ay 983Document is available to theU.S. public through theNational Technical InformationService, Springfield, Virginia22161
84 08 J9 014-_
Technical keport Documentation Pagef . RepoI No 2. Gooe'rrinoni Accesilon No. 3. Recip~ent't Catalog No. .
FAA-APO-83-5 /> _
4. Title end Subtile 5. Report Dote
Investment Criteria for Airport Surveillance Radar May 1983(ASR/ATCR BS/ARTS) 6. Performing O,go,. ai.... Cod.
S. Performing Organization Report No.7. Author,'%"
Ward L. Keech9. P. rforming Organsatior Name and Address 10. Work Unit No. (TRAIS)
U.S. Department of TransportationFederal Aviation Administration 11. Contract or Grant No.
Office of Aviation Policy and PlansWashington, D.C. 20591 13. T ype of Report rnd Period Covered
12. Sponuoring Agency Name and Address
Final Report
14. Sponsoring Agency Code
15. Supplementary Notes lsitribution "instructions:A-WYZ-2; A-X-2 (except AF/AS/AT/FS/PL):A-X (AF/AT/FS/PL-3); A-FAF-2; A-FAS-l;
* A-FAT-l,2,3,5,6 (Ltd)'16. Abstract
""This report develops revised investment criteria for Airport Survoiillance Radar,Air Traffic Control Radar Beacon System, and Automated hadar Terminal System(ASR/ATCRBS/ARTS) for publication in FAA Order 7031.2B, Airway Planning StandardNumber One. Airway Planning Standard Number One contains the policy and summarizesthe criteria used in determining eligibility of terminal locations for establishmentdiscontinuance and imuprovements3 of air navigation facilities and air trafficcontrol services.
The investment criteria addressed in this report include ASR establishment, ASRdiscontinuatice, ASR improvements, remoted radar bright display scope, establishmentof terminal radar approach control in tower cab (TRACAB), establishment ofterminal radar approach control (TRACON) and TRACAB to TP•,CON conversion.
ASR/ATCRBS/ARTS benefits quantified in this report include the value of delayLeduction to users and operators of aircraft operating under instrument flightrule conditions and reduced risks of midair and terrain collisions in thre terminalarea. Life-cycle costs are based on investment, operations and maintenance costsof the ASR-9 in TRACAB and TRACON configurations.,
7 -7. 1.y Words• 18. Ditrl•butlon. StotementAirport Surveillance Radar, Benefit/CLst Document is available to the U.S. publicAnalysis, Investment Criteria, Capital through the National Technical Informa-Budgeting tion Service, Springfield, Virginia
22161
19. Security Clossel. (of this report) 20. Secu,,t', Claso if, (of thispago) 21. No. of Pages 22. Prce
Unclassified Unclassified 110 None
Form DOT F 1700.7 18-72) Reproduction of completed page authorized
TARLE OF CONTTSM
Sec tion Page
Executive Summary ....................
I. Intrcdwtinti .. . . . . . I. . . . . . . . . . . .. ..
II. Revised ASR Investment Criteria . . ...... 2 -. .
III. ASR Costs . . . ..................... 8
IV. Methodology for Estimating ASR Benefits ... ......... ... 12
A. Introduction. .................... 1. 32
B. IFR Delay Reduction Benefits ...... ............. 13
C. Safety Benefits . ................ *. 23
1. Collision Analysis ...... ............... . . 23a. Midair Collision Analysis . . ........ 23b. Terrain Collision Analysis. . . ....... 27
2. VFR Radar Advisory Service . .... ............ .3. Hadar Flight Assists. ........... .....
D. Convonience ............... .................... ... 29
V. Development of Phase I ASR Establishment andDiscontinuance Criteria . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30
VI. Results of Applying Previous and Revised AnRCriteria to all FAA Approach Control Towers """and Impact Analysis of Revised ASR Criteria ......... .. .34
VII. A Manual Method for Computing the PhAse II ASR
Establishment Benefit/Cost Ratio ........ ............. 48
VIII. Development of Supplemental Criteria ............. ..... 76
IX. Sensitivity Analysis .......... ................... ... 78
Appx. A Previous ASR Investment Criteria. . . . . ......... 80
Appx. B Busy IFR Hour Operations Regression Itnalysis ..... ..... 83
Appx. C Delay Costs Per Hour By Aircraft Type. ............. ... 90
Appx. 0 Midai: Collision Costs By Aircraft Type ... ......... ... 91
Appx. E-1 Normative Distribution of Air Carrier Aircraft byAircraft Type Used in the Development of Delay andMidair Collision Avoidanco. Benefits .... ........... ... 92
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Appx. E-2 Normative Distribution of Air Taxi, General Aviation andMilitary Aircraft by Aircraft Type Used in theDevelopmnt of Delay Benefits ..... ............. .... 93
Appx. X-3 Normative Distribution of Air Taxi, General Aviation andMilitary Aircraft by Aircraft Type Used in theDevelopment of Midair Collision Avoidance Benefits .... 94
Appx. F Program Logic of ASR Establishment and
Discontinuance Criteria ................. 95
References.. ........ ...................... 104
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EXECUTIVE SUMMLARY
This report develops revised investment criteria for the AirportSurveillance-Radar, Air Ttaffic Control Radar Beacon System, and
Automated Radar Terminal System (ASW/ATCRBS/ARTS) for publication in FAAOrder 7031.2B, Airway Planning Standard Number One. Airway PlanningStandard Number One contains the policy and summarizes the criteria usedin determining eligibility of terminal locations for establishment,discontinuance and improvements of air navigation facilities and airtraffic control services. The investment criteria addressed in thisreport include ASR establishment, ASR discontinuance, improvements,remoted radar bright displ3y scope, establishment of terminal radarapproach control in tower cab (TRACAB), establishment of terminal radarapproach control (TRACON) and TRACAB to TRAODN conversion.
The AR establishment and discontinuance criteria developed in thisA report are based on a rigorous computerized benefit/cost analysis. The
other supplemental criteria, however, are not readily adaptable tobenefit/cost analyses for system-wide application because benefits andcosts may vary significantly from case to case. In lieu of detalledbenefit/cost anzalyses for these supplemental criteria, activity levelsare identified at which marginal benefits are expected to exceed costs.
The primary benefits of ASR quantified in this report include reduceddelays to aircraft operating under instrument flight rule (IFR)conditions made possible by reducing separations below those required bymanual procedures and reduced risks of midair and terrain collisions inthe terminal area through the application of radar separation services.Other benefita, such as visual flight rule (VFR) radar advisory service,radar flight assists, and convenience have not been adequately quantifiedand therefore have not been included in the criteria developed in thisreport. Life-cycle costs are based on investment in and operation andmaintenance costs of the ASR-9 in TRACAB and TRACON configurations.
Of particular interest are enhancements introduced into the benefits A
methodology for the ASR establishment and discontinuance criteria. Th.!revised methodology extends credit for radar services provided to alluser classes. The previous criteria focused more on the air carrier userclass. Additionally, the revised benefits methodology introduces the".area concept" of providing qualified radar service to multiple airportsites having a common need for radar surveillance. Under this concept,qualified radar service provided to secondary or satellite airports is
X taken into account in quantifying total benefits. Additionally, therevised benefits methodology is more site-specific. In the previouscriteria, benefits were based only on the aviation activity for the firstyear of the ASR's operation and costs were annualized. Changes inaviation activity growth were not represented in the benefitscalculation. The revised benefits methodology uses official aviation -. 7activity forecasts by quantifying the benefits independently for eachyear of an ASR's estimated 15-year economic life and discounting thebenefits for each year to their present value. These are summed torepresent the present value life-cycle benefits. Capital costs andoperations and maintenance costs are approached on a similar present
• , • . . . .. - . , . . .
value life-cycle basis. Lastly, the revised benefits methodologyincorporates updated critical value elements, including the value of timeof aircraft passengers/occupants, the value of a statistical life, thecost of a statistical serious injury, aircraft replacement andrestoration costs and aircraft variable operating costs. ..--.
The revised ASR criteria, in relation to the previous ASR criteria,identify more establishment candidates and fewer discontinuancecandidates. Based on projections through FY 1987, 19 FAA approachcontrol towers presently without ASR equipment or service will meet therevised establishment criteria, while 13 meet the previous establishmentcriteria. Two existing ASR installations meet the revised discontinuancecriteria, while 5 meet the previous discontinuance criteria. It isimpossible to assess the actual budget impact of the revised criteria onagency resources for several reasons. First, meeting candidacy levelsdoes not by itself entail automatic qualification. Benefit/costscreening is but one of several inputs to the FAA decisionmaking processrelative to investment in ASR facilities. Investment decisions are made . Son the basis of all pertinent factors. Second, neighboring airportshaving a common need for radar surveillance may collectively qualify foran ASR under the "area concept." Qualifying sites in the category willhe determined on a case by case basis by the Air Traffic Service. Andthird, actual costs vary from site to site. Estimated site-specificcosts will be applied in actual application of the criteria.
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SECTION I - INTRODUCTION
This report develops revised investment criteria for the AirportSurveillance Radar, Air Traffic Control Radar Beacon System, andAutomated Radar Terminal System (ASR/ATCRBS/ARTS). These criteriareplace the ASR investment criteria that are currently contained in FAAOrder 7031.2B, Airway Planning Standard Number Orie (Reference 1), asdeveloped in FAA Report Number ASP-75-2, Establishment Criteria forAirport Surveillance Radar (ASR/ATCRBS/BDS) (Reference 2). AirwayPlanning Standard Nu-mber One contains the policy and summarizes thecriteria used in determining eligibility of terminal locations forestablishment, discontinuance and improvements of air navigation
facilities and air traffic control services. The investment criteriaaddressed in this report include ASR establishment, ASR discontinuance,improvements, remoted radar bright display scope, establishment ofterminal radar approach control in tower cab (TRACAB), establishment ofI terminal radar approach control (TRACON) and TRACAB to TRACON conversion.
The ASR, used in conjunction with the ATCRBS and ARTS, upgrades a manualapproach control facility to a radar approach control facility. The ASR,itself, is a primary surveillance radar which provides aircraft targetinformation on air traffic controllers' display scopes. The ATCRBS is acooperative secondary radar system which facilitates the identificationof radar targets by interrogating transponder-equipped aircraft. ARTS isa minicomputer-based system that facilitates the display of alphanumericidentification data on controllers' display scopes. For convenience andsimplicity, the ASP/ATCRBS/ARTS system will be referred to simply as"ASR" in this report.
The ASR establishment and discontinuance criteria are derived from arigorous life-cycle benefit/cost analysis. Benefit/cost analysis, asapplied to FAA facilities, equipment and services, is a quantitativeevaluation in which the life-cycle capital, operating and maintenancecosts of a facility or service are compared with the dollar value of thelife-cycle benefits that are expected from that facility o: service.Intuitively, benefit/cost ratios of one or more are good investments,while those of less than one are poor investments. Since the capitalcosts of an ASR system are sunk, the only relevant costs for an ASRsystem being considered for discontinuance are its recurring operationsand maintenance costs (ignoring salvage value, relocation costs, etc.).
* The other supplemental criteria ari not readily adaptable to rigorousbenefit/cost analyses for system-' Lde application because benefits andcosts may vary significantly fro. case to case. In lieu of detailedbenefit/cost analyses for these st4)plemental criteria, activity levelsare identified at which there is expected to exist reasonablerelationships between benefits and costs. Meeting candidacy levels willnot mean automatic qualification. Benefit/cost screening will be but oneof several inputs to the FAA decisionmaking process relative toinvestment in ASR facilities. It will in no way affect theresponsibilities of the operating services for the validation ofcandidates.
SECTION II - REVISED ASR INVESTENT CRITERIA
This section summarizes the ASR investment criteria addressed in thisreport. The previous ASR investment criteria are reproduced inAppendix A. As discussed in Section I, the ASR establishment anddiscontinuance criteria are derived from a rigorous benefit/costanalysis, while the supplemental criteria for Improvements, remoted radarbeight display scope, TRACMB establishment, TMCODN establishment, and
TERCAM to TWCOH conversion are based on activity levels at or abovewhidi marginal benefits are expected to exeed marginal costs. Theprevious criteria for TIMCAB establishment, TPACON establishment andTRhCFB to TRAODN conversion remain unchanged.
Meeting candidacy levels will not mean automatic qualification.Benefit/cost screening will be but one of several inputs to the FAAdecisionmaking process relative to invbstment in ASR facilities.Investaent decisions will be made on the basis of all pertinent factors.These criteria will in no way affect the responsibilities of theoperating services for the validation of candidates.
A. MBR Establishment
1. Phase I
ASR establishment criteria for FAA approach control towers aretwo-phased. Phase I is a set of simple generalized criteria designed toInitially identify potential candidates. Under Phase I an airport ratiovalue is computed by summing the relative contributory benefits of ASR.If the airport ratio alue obtained is equal to cr greater than 1.0, thelocation satisfies the Phase I criteria for ASR/ATMSARTS establishment.
If radar coverage will be provided at or below initial approach altitudeat secondary or satellite airports, an area ratio value is computed bysumming the airport ratio values of the airports making up the radarservice area. The Air Traffic Service will determine eligible locationsunder the area concept on a case-by-case basis, MSR coverageencampasaing two or mre airports may dictate changes in the operationalresponsibilities within the radar service area. Prudent management ofresources may require that radar service ultimately be provided from thatlocation, regardless of its current facility status, which can best servethe ares.
The computation procedure and nomenclature fcr Phase I establishmentcriteria are outlined on the following pages.
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Contributin Benefit Ratio value
Delay Reduction:
ACPRIM * xxxx
3,400 - (.0013 x PRIM)*
ATPBIM axxix
* 26,000 -(.0096 x MRM)
GAPRIM xxxx53,300 - (.0196 x PRIM) 5
MLPRIM xxxx
8,600 - (.0032 x PRIM)*
Safety:
ACXTN xxxx107,400
ATITH_ * xxix539,600
GAITH + LCAL C xxxx847,200
M.IN + MMLLCL xxxx"376,200
Sum of Ratio Values If 1 or greater, locationsatisfies Phase I criteria
*If the denominator for any user class results in a value equal to orless than zero, disregard all denonunators and use all of the followinginstead. For the air carrier user class: 9,300 - (.0034 x PRIM)l forthe air taxi user class: 71,200 - (.0262 x PRIM)i for the generalaviation user classs 146,000 - (.0538 x PRIM)l and for the military userclass: 23,400 - (.0086 x PRIM).
ACRIM, A'PRIM, GAPRIM and MLPRIM, for a primary airport, are the numbersof annual Primary instrument operations of the air carrier (FAR 121, 127and 129), air taxi (IFAR 1351, general aviation (FAR 91) and military(PAR 91) user classes, respectively. For a qualified secondary airport,these tetns are the numbers of annual primary instrument operations ofthe secondary airport by user class, or the respective nmbers ofsecondary instrument operations by user class of the primary airportassociated with or allocable to the secondary airport, whichever aregreater.
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5PRIM, for a primary airport, is the number of total annual primaryinstrument operations (i.e., the sum of ACPRIM, AWRIM, GAPRIM andMLPRIM). PRIM, for a qualified secondary airport, is the number of totalannual primary instrument oporations of the secondary airport, or thenumber of total annual secondary instrument operations of the priVmaryairport associated with or allocable to the secondary airport, whicheveris geeater.
ACITN, ATITN, GAITN and MLITN are the numbers of annual itinerantoperations of the air carrier, air taxi, general aviation and militaryuser classes, respectively.
GALCL and MLLCL are the numbers of annual local operations of the generalaviation and military user classes, respectively.
2. Phase III
Phase I1 is a site-specific computerized benefit/cost screening processunder which candidates identified under Phase I are further evaluated.If an airport benefit/cost ratio or an area benefit/cost ratio of 1.0 orgreater is computed, the location satisfies the Phase II criteria forASI/ATCR1S/ARWS vi!ablishment. The ASR subroutine, integrated into theTerminal Area Forc-:ast Data System, requires the following manual inputdata:
1. System acquisition and installation costs (FAA Form 2500-40, PIE CostEstimate Summary).
2. Percent of time that, IFR weather prevails at the proposed location,if available. For the purpose at hand, IFR weather is defined asweather in which visibility is less than 3 miles and/o the ceilingbelow 1,500 feet.
3. Fraction of the air cuarrier user class represented by each of thefollowing aircraft type categoriest P
Tur bof an, 4-etigine, wide bodyTur boj et, 4-engi neTurbofan, 4-engine, regular bodyTurbofan, 3-engine, wide bodyTurbofan, 3-engine, regular bodyTurbofan, 2-engina, wide bodyTurbofan, 2-engine, regular bodyTurbopropPiston
If this data is not available from local sources, the OfficialAirline Guide, or the Terminal Area Forecast Data System, nationalaverages will be used as default values in the Phase I1 screeningprocess.
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4. Fraction of secondary instrument operations of each user class (aircarrier, air taxi, general aviation, and military) of the primaryairport allocable to each secondary or satellite airport. NOTE:This data is required only for those secondary or satellite airportsthat are provided "qualified" radar coverage by the proposedcandidate airport at or below initial approach altitude.
B. ASR Discontinuance
Like ASR establishment criteria, ASR discontinuance criteria aretwo-phased. To determine whether an ASR facility meets the Phase Idiscontinuance criteria, a ratio value is calculated by the same
* -sum-of-ratios approach described above for Phase I establishmentcriteria. If the ratio value so obtained is less than 0.35, the locationsatisfies Phase I discontinuance criteria. The 0.35 figure is anapproximation of the level where the benefits just offset recurringannual operations and maintenance costs, after allowing for salvage
value, relocation costs, etc. Initial acquisition and installation costsare irrelevant when an ASR system is being considered for discontinuancesince they are surnk costs. Locations satisfying Phase I discontinuancecriteria will be further screened under the Phase II benefit/cost
0 screening process. If the benefit/cost ratio so obtained is less than0.35, the ASR installation may be considered for discontinuance.
C. Improvements
Existing FAA approach control facilities equipped with ASR systemsfrequently require improvements (e.g., ARTS implementaticn, relocation offacilities to correct siting problems, component replacement, etc.).Such improvements are normally made when the operational benefitsexpected to be realized exceed the costs involved.
1. An FAA radar approach control facility recording 25,000 or moreannual instrument operations qualifies for those improvements thatsatisfy an operational -equirement and/or facilitate the provision ofterminal area radar service. A benefit/cost study may be requiredfor "major" improvements to terminal radar facilities in thiscategory.
2. An FAA radar approach control facility recording between 15,000 and25,000 annual instrument operations may be a candidate forimprovements. It qualifies for those improvements that satisfy anoperational requirement and/or facilitate the provision of terminalarea radar service. A benefit/cost study may be required for "major"improvements to terminal radar facilities in this category.
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3. An FAA radar approach control facility recording less than 15,000annual instrument operations is not a candidate for improvements. Atthat activity level, the additional cost per operation resulting fromthe improvement is not commensurate with the benefit derived. Any •improvement to terminal radar facilities in this category will belimited to the correction of a critical situation and shall bejustified by an individual staff study.
NOWE: Improvements to FAA-staffed RAPCON's/RATCF's may be considered or.an individual basis but the above criteria shall remain a majordeterminant in considering FAA civil facilities for improvement.
D. Remoted Radar Bright Display Scope
An FAA VFR control tower at an airport, which is a satellite of theprimary airport of a radar approach control facility, is a candidate for •a remoted radar display scope in the tower cab when:
1. At least 30,000 annual itinerant operations are recorded; and
2. Operationally adequate low altitude coverage is assured at thesatellite airport.
E. Terminal Radar Approach Control in Tower Cab (TRA(hB) and TerminalRadar Approach Control (TRACON).
1. Establishment. An initial ASIVATCRBS/ARTS installation shall be aTRACAB facility consisting of appropriate displays placed in thetower cab except when any of the following rituations prevail:
a. If the official agency forecasts indicate an ASR/ATCP.S/ARTScandidate location will exceed 125,000 annual itinerantoperations or 60,000 annual instrument operations within 2 yearsof the year of budget submission for the facility, the initialinstallation should be planned as a TRACCN rather than a TRACAB,subject to an operational determination by the Air TrafficService. Instrument operations at secondary airports may beincluded in this forecast provided radar coverage at theselocations is expected to exist at or below initial approachaltitude.
b. If an ASR/ATCRBS/ARTS candidate location cannot physicallyaccommodate radar approach control in the tower cab, thenindividual justification shall be required to go directly to aTRACQI facility.
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c. When the complexity of the facility operation warrants,individual justification and consideration shall be given tolocating the ASR/ATCRBS/ARTS in a TRACON rather than a TRACAB.
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2. Discontinuance. A TRACKB will be discontinued when Lhe ASR system isdecoa0issioned or when the radar approach control function istransferred to a TPACDN.
3. Conversion to TRACDN. A TRACRB location is a TRACDN candidate whenthe facility has at least 125,000 annual itinerant operations or60,000 annual instrument operations. Instrument operations atsecondary airports that receive radar service at or below initialapproach altitude may be included in this count. Also, when thecomplexity of the facility warrants, individual justification andconsideration should be given to relocating from a TRACRA to a TRAODN.
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SECTION III - ASR COSTS
ASR costs and their life-cycle counterparts are shown in Figure 1 for anASR installation configured as a TRACAB and in Figure 2 for an ASRinstallation configured as a TRACON. The total cost of an ASR systemconsists of facilities and equipment costs plus operations andmaintenance costs. Facilities and equipment costs consist of equipment,installation and commissioning flight check costs. Operations andmaintenance costs consist of such annual recurring costs as air trafficstaffing, support (airway facilities staffing, spares, training, etc.)and utilities. It may be noted that while the average installed systemacquisition cost of the solid-state ASR-9 ia higher than that of theearlier vacuum-tube ASR models, the operations and maintenance costs aresignificantly lower. Life-cycle costs are calculated by discountingtotal operations and maintenance costs over the assumed 15-year economiclife of an ASR system to their present value and adding them tofacilities and equipment costs, which are assumed to occur at thebeginning of the installation year. An ASR's economic life, as opposedto its physical life, provides a more relevant measure of its usefulservice life. A fifteen year economic life is consistent with publishedguidelines on transportation-related capital stocks (e.g.,Reference 30). Even if a longer life was assumed, the Ipact would benominal, because the costs and benefits in the out years are heavilydiscounted.
The facilities and equipment costs in Figures 1 and 2 include noallowances for remoted radar bright display installations or"leap-frogging" (i.e., the practice of replacing an already existingolder generation ASR with a state-of-the-art ASR and relocating the oldergeneration ASR to a newly qualifying site). When either or both of theseactions are contemplated, appropriate adjustments should be made tofacilities and equipment costs.
Once an ASR is established, the terminal air traffic control facility isorganized as either a TRACAB (where the radar control area is located inthe air traffic control tower with the usual cab positions) or a TRACON(which entails a separate IFR control room). Early difficulties wereexperienced with the utilization of the radar display scope in the towercab due to the high ambient light level and space congestion. withexisting improvements in BRITE display performance and tower cab layout,current opinion suggests that the TRACAB concept is feasible at sacmemaximum level of hourly operations. Thusp the impact of adding aseparate TRAC(W or IFR room is simply to relieve any congestion in thetower cab that might exist.
The addition of an IFR control room to a TRACAB increases costs in twoways. First, an extra flight data position (located in the TRACON) isgenerally required because of the coordination problem created by thephysical separation of the controllers. Second, the additionalconstruction and remoting costs of the IFR room must be added. Themanpower cost is relatively constant, but the construction and remotingcosts of the IFR control room are highly site-dependent. In some cases,existing structures might be used and/or space may be available close tothe tower. In others, new construction may be required, possibly at some
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distance from tie tower. Thus, a TRACAB is more economical andpreferable if it is operationally feasible. TRACAB/TRACON criteria areoutlined in paragraph E of Section II,
The decision to organize as a TRACAB or TRACON rests on current andprojected traffic activity, and whether the less costly, but capacitylimited, TRACAB configuration is adequate. The criteria developed inthis report presume the establishment of the TRACAB configuration unlessone or more of the criteria for establishing a TRACON (as outlined inparagraph E of Section I1) are satisfied.
The assumed initial staffing level of five controllers per ASR facilityis based on the Air Traffic Staffing Standards System (Reference 3).This Standard reflects Air Traffic Service judgment and experience indetermining staffing levels necessary to provide safe separation andefficient flow of traffic. It is important to note that the assumptionis not that there would be five air traffic control specialists assembledaround the radar displays in the tower cab. The Standard provides that aminimum of three controllers is needed to operate the radar over atwo-shift operating day. To allow for seven-day staffing and training, &standard factor of 1.6 is applied. Three times 1.6 yields 4.8, showingthat five additional controllers must be employed to initially staff theleast elaborate terminal radar configuration in the system.
Current FAA policy establishes Expanded Radar Service (ERS) at each newASR/TRACAB facility within six months after commissicning. When the ERSis established (either Stage II which provides sequencing and advisoryservices or Stage III which provides sequencing and separation services),the services provided contribute toward the total instrument count at thefacility, and therefore, require a concomitant increase in staff. It iscurrent practice to request three additional controllers (in addition tothe five necessary to initially establish radar approach control service)for the ERS capability when a new facility is established as a TRACAB,making a total of 8 controllers.
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FIGURE 1
TYPical Life-Cycle ASE/&VTCRBS/ARTS Costs - TRACAB Configuration (ASR-9)
10% 15-YearCost Discount Discounted
(1980 $) Factor Costs
Facilities and Riuipment:
System acquisition cost (installed)&/ $6,200,OpO 1.000 $6,200,000
Operations and Maintenance:
Air Traffic staffing $ 288,608(8 additional controllers 6 $36,0762/)
Support (Airway Facilities staffing, 54,600spares, training, etc.)
Utilities 4,700
Total O&M 347,908 7.9762/ 2,774,914
Total Discounted Life-Cycle Cost $8,974,914or
$8,970,000
!/Does not include costs for remoted radar bright display installations andleap-frogging (see text).
2/GS-12/5 salary of $27,995 over 9 months an~d $30,543 over 3 months equatesto a weighted 1980 salary of $28,632. Inflating this salary level by a fringebenefits overhead factor of 1.26 (par Reference 4) yields $36,076 percontroller in 1980 dollars..
-/Future year costs are discounted to their present values using mid-yearrather than end-of-year discount factors ( (I/(l.I)Y0.5)), for y .1 to 15).
Sources: AAP-356 and Reference 3.
FIGURE 2
Typical Life-Cycle ASR/ATCRBS/AET. Costs - TRACON Configuration (ASR--9)l/'
10% 15-Yeari Cost Discount DiscountedK (1980 $) Factor Costs
Total Discounted Life-CycleCost of ThRCAB (from Figure 1) $8,970,000
Incremental Costs of TRACIN
Additional flight datapositions (2 @ $36,076A/) $ 72,152 7.976i/ 575,484
Building of IFR roo=/ $180,000 1.000 180,000
Equipment relocation and $ 19,000 1.000 19,000"cabling
Additional support & utilities $ 2,000 7.976!L/ 15,952
Total Discounted Life-Cycle Cost $9,760,436or
$9,760,000
"IT-n explained in the text, actual costs may vary considerably from site to site.
Site-specific costs should be used. in actual practice. As with the TRACAB costestimates in Figure 1, no allowances have been made here for reaoted radar brightdisplay installations and leap-frogging (see text).
? /See Footnote 2 of-, Pty . 1.
-/VNew building:Construction of a minimum $300,000
3,000 sq. ft. base building4 $100 per sq. ft.
Site preparauion of existingleased space for TRAWN 30,000
Total $330,000x Assumed incidence rate of 50% x,50 $165,000
Modification of existing facilities:$30,000 x assumed incidence rate of 50% $ 15,000
Expected cost $180,000
"A/Future year costs are discounted to their present values using mid-year rather thanend-of-year discount factors ( l(I/(l.l)Y-0.5)), for y - 1 to 15).
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SECTION IV - METNODOLOGY FOR ESTIMATING ASR BENEFITS
A. Introduction
An ASR approach control facility, as opposed to a manual approach controlfacility, can provide benefits through two primary sources: reduceddelays to aircraft operating under instrument flight rule (IFR)conditions made possible by reducing separations below those required bymanual proceduresl and reduced risks of midair and terrain collisions inthe terminal area through the application of radar separation services.Secondary benefits provided by an ASR include visual flight rule (VFR) pradar advisory service, radar flight assists and convenience. Thissection details the methodology used to quantify these benefits. Beforeaddressing the benefits in detail, however, the more significantdifferences in benefit methodology are highlighted between the previousand revised criteria.
First, unlike the previous benefits methodology, the revised Phase Imethodology extends credit for radar services provided to all userclasses, rather than focusing on the air carrier user class.
Second, in response to many suggestions that ASR establishment criteriabe modified to allow credit for radar coverage provided to secondary or-5satellite airports, this report introduces the "area concept" ofproviding qualified radar service to multiple airport sites having acommon need for radar surveillance. Under this concept, benefits will beascribed and computed for the secondary airport(s) as well as the primaryairport when the airport traffic areas are in a proximity which causes -
constant overlap of arrival and departure routes. The activity ofsecondary airports may be included if the siting of the ASR can beexpected to provide coverage at or below initial approach altitude at thesecondary airport(s). The Air Traffic Service will determine eligiblelocations in this category,
The methodology employed in determining total benefits of multiple%rport sites having a common need for an ASR system is as follows.Because both delay reduction and safety benefits outlined in this reportare non-linearly related to activity, each of the airports in thepotential radar service area will be addressed independently, i.e., abenefit/cost ratio will be computed for each airport making up the radarservice area. An area ratio will be computed by summing the respective C7airport ratios. ASR coverage encompassing two or more airports maydictate changes in the operational responsibilities within the radarservice area. Prudent Management of resources may require that radarservice ultimately be provided from that location, regardless of itscurrent facility status, which can best serve the area.
Third, the revised benefits methodology is more site-specific. In theprevious criteria, benefi-s were based only on the aviation activity forthe first year of the ASR's operation and costs were annualized. Changesin aviation activity growth were not represented in the benefitscalculation. The revised benefits methodology uses official aviationactivity forecasts by quantifying the benefits independently for eachyear of an ASR's estimated 15-year economic life and discounting thebenefits for each year to their present value. These are summed torepresent the present value life-cycle benefits. An ASR's economic life,
12 0 .
as opposed to its physical life, providos a more relevant measure of itsuseful service life. A fifteen year economic life is consistent withpublished guidelines on transportation-related capital stocks (e.g.,Reference 5). Even if, a longer life were assutmed, the iopact would benominal, because the benefits and costs in the out years are heavilydiscounted.
Lastly, the revised benefits methodology incorporates updated economic orcritical values, including the value of time of aircraft Apassengers/occupants, the value of a statistical life, the cost of astatistical serious injury, aircraft replacement and restoration costsand aircraft variable operating costs.
B. IFR Delay Reduction Benefits
The establishaent of an ASR at an approach control tower providescontrollers with a visual representation of their traffic. It permitsthe use of reduced separation standards during IFR conditions andprovides controllers with the capability of vectoring arrival anddeparture traffic, thereby increasing the utilization of the terminalarea airspace and expediting the flow of traffic.
A National Bureau of Standards report, A Concept for New EstablishmentCriteria for Airport Surveillance Radar (Reference 6), prepared under aninteragency agreement with the FAA, derived radar-preventable delays forvarious traffic mixes and levels of operation. When used in conjunctionwith unit delay costs, IFR delay reduction benefits attributable to anASR can be readily obtained. NBS's DELCAP simulation model was used toobtain estimates of delay with and without ASR available. Since delayreduction benefits of ASR are realized principally under IFR conditions,IFR separation rules were used. It was assumed that ASR would permitminimum spacing (3 nautical miles for the type of airport relevant tothis report) to be maintained at high levels of traffic, while withoutASR various manual procedures woul result in average spacings of 7.5,10, and 15 nautical miles at the same traffic levels. It was furtherassumed that the airports in question would be operating in a singlerunway configuration when IFR conditions prevailed.
Two user classes, whose pertinent flight characteristics are given below,were used in the simulation runs. The flight characteristics of thegeneral aviation user class are also attributed to the air taxi andmilitary user classes in this report.
Flight Characteristics
Speed (Knots) Runway Occupancy (Seconds)
User Class Landing Liftoff Landing Takeoff
General Aviation (GA) 90 90 35 25
Air Carrier (AC) 125 120 34 32
1 3
- -'..
Four mixes of Lhese user classes were run: 10 percent GA - 90 percentAC; 20 percent GA - 60 percent AC; 40 percent GA - 60 percent ACI and 80percent GA - 20 percent AC. Five traffic acLivity levels were simulated:10, 15, 20, 25, and 30 operations per hour. The distributions of thenumber of arriving aircraft was assumed to be Poisson. In ,ach case, itwas assumed that half of the operations are landings and half aretakeoffs.
Delay was calculated for each aircraft, takeoff and landing, as the
difference of the flight time actually required from that which wouldhave occurred had no other aircraft been present. The calculations ofthe delays in landings plus the delays in takeoffs are shown in Figure 3.The values listed in Figure 3 are the average of the results obtainedfrom 20 simulation runs utilizing different strings of random numbers forgenerating the arrivals. They represent total delay per hour of airportoperation of aircraft landing and taking off for each of the 4 mixes ofaircraft for airports operating in 4 different approach environmentsyi.e., 3, 7.5, 10, and 15 nautical mile separation of aircraft.
The ultimate capacities listed in Figure 3 were calculated as shown inthe following example. At the 10 nautical mile separation, the averagetime between the touchdown of one aircraft and the touchdown of afollowing general aviation aircraft is:
10 nautical miles - 0.11 hour90 knots
and the average time between the touchdown of one aircraft and thetouchdown of a following air carrier aircraft is.
10 nautical miles u 0.08 hour
125 knots
At the 80 percent AC traffic mix, the probability of the landing aircraftbeing C is 0.80, and the probability of the landing aircraft being GA is0.20.
Therefore, the average time required per landing aircraft is:
(.08 x .80) + (.11 x .20) - 0.086 hour
which yields an average rate of 11.6 landing aircraft per hour with notakeoffs. In this example, i.e., 10 nautical mile separation, theseparation between landing aircraft is great enough to permit takeoffswithout affecting the sequence of landings. Therefore, since half of theoperations are landings and half takecffs, the total potential operationsper hour is 23 under the conditions stated. Since these conditions canbe considered as "idealw relative to the actual conditions under which anairport operates, the capacities computed in this manner are considered"ultimate." A slower aircraft landing ahead of a faster aircraft willgenerate a delay. This factor becomes evident when the plots of thetotal delay for a 60 percent AC mix are compared with higher and lowerpercentages of AC aircraft, as illustrated in Figure 4.
14
j FIGURE 3
Total Minutes of Aircraft Delay Per Hour of Airport Operationfor Varying Nubers of Operations Per Hour
Operations22r Hour 90% N/C 80% A/C 60% A/C/C
3 Nautical Mile Separation
10 8.7 10.6 11.6 18.815 15.7 22.3 31.6 34.120 32.5 41.5 52.7 54.425 56.7 68.1 79.0 86.230 83.8 95.1 102.8 111.8
7.5 Nautical Mile Separation
10 14.7 16.9 21.2 29.915 30.0 39.3 49.1 68.220 91.5 106.3 185.3 194.825 283.6 472.2 1,061.2 1,701.030 744.0 1,549.0 2,620.0 O/C
Ultimate Capacity(opns./hr.) (32) (31) (30) (26)
10 Nautical Mile Separation
10 21.9 28.1 33.5 43.215 48.6 51.5 82.6 119.9 --20 299.1 444.4 889.4 O/C
Ultimate Capacity(opns./hr.) (24) (23) (22) (19)
15 Nautical Mile Separation
10 57.0 65.3 79.4 129.5 215 153.8 171.1 O/C O/C
Ultimate Capacity(opns./hr.) (16) (15) (14) (12)
O/C - over capacity --
15
FIQGX 4
Tine Saved By ASR: 3 Mile vs. 7.5 Mile Separation
40
3 4
S10"
6 ;9
q4,ItI I
ILI
10! i~o 2
_ _P'1_ _ P_ _ IFR HUM
16
:,.4eS _OE_ AT_ _N _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _
16
In general, at the lower levels of operations per hour, the delay fortakeoffs is greater than that for landings since the landing aircraftalways have priority. However, as the ultimate capacities areapproached, the simulation model permits landing delays to exceed delaysin takeoffs to avoid an excessive departure queue.
Additional simulation runs were made at the 3 and 7.5 nautical mileseparations increasing the runway occupancy for landing AC aircraft from34 seconds to 60 seconds. No significant differences in the total delayswere apparent for this increase. However, the data suggests that runwayoccupancy periods of over 60 seconds can bcuome critical when computingdelays for a 3 nautical mile separation distance.
For purposes of this report, total delay differentials shown in Figure 3between the 3 and 7.5 nautical mile separation standards have beenconverted to average delay savings per aircraft for varying numbers ofoperations per hour of airpo-t operation, as illustrated in Figure 5.Figure 4 graphically illustrates total aircraft hours saved by ASR perhour of airport operation by lowering the separaticn standard from 7.5 to3 nautical miles for the 20%, 60%, 80% and 90% AC mixes.
Given the NBS methodology described above for deriving hourly IFR delaydifferentials between radar and non-radar environments for various hourlyactivity levels, the following additional data must be determined inorder to compute IPR delay reduction benefits for a specific site:
1. Number of operations during a busy InR hour;
2. Hourly cost of delay of the aircraft type mix, and
3. Frequency of busy IPR hour
An "IPR hour" is defined as one during which instrument approach weatherconditions prevail, usually a ceiling of 1,500 feet or less and/orvisibility of 3 miles or less. It is recognized that radar can reducedelays by reducing separation when instrument conditions exist at highaltitudes as well. However, data on the frequency of occurrence of"better" IFR weather, e.g., 4000-5, is not available and the 1500-3observations, which are available (Reference 7), are thought toapproximate total IFR conditions closely enough for this purpose. A"busy" IFR hour, as the term connotes, is as an hour during which highinstrument operations activity takes place. To estimate the number ofoperations during a busy IFR hour, a regression analysis between reportedbusy IFR hour operations and annual instrument operations was performedfor 252 towered airports (after omitting outliers). The results of thisanalysis are presented in Appendix B and summarized in Figures 6 and 7.The data upon which this regression analysis is based were obtained fromperiodic counts made by tower personnel during periods of known highinstrument operations activity (Reference 8). After determining thenumber of operations during a busy IFR hour and the percent of instrumentoperations represented by the air carrier user class, the time saved peraircraft per hour of airport operation can be found by referring toFigure 5.
17
*1 0" C41-1 4 C M mvi -( Wwm c 40U,~ M cen N(41 0000 0 )000010 r- 4 m Ul# 0 M%D r-o 0Ll 14 14 4 16 1;
0
0ýa0 000 0 00400 F4 -4 M -0%n 40aNV A
*-r4 -4 P4-4 r4f-
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041
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it o qm 0 C) 0 0 CD 0 CD 0 f- f- C4 M -0 W CO 0% v-*4 N -Wto0
100
00
140 400w0C -000 C C 4 c 4f 0t 0
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el 4 e4
ý v4 ('(4 NfI ( -tf 4 (n .0 9c ow 4O M r. 4
h D C 00000D 090 00 Q ~ *M 0 0 0r 4-4C4m(
>4 0Y
0oO 00 004-44 N M 5.lflW 00C4 Sa S~ r- `4 r- 4 14 t- N 04 C4 (4 CA C N C4 4 en
PIGURE 6
Relationship Between Buky IFR Hour Operations and Annual InstrumentOperations Based on Rogression Analysis of 252 Towered Airports
I ZFR RANGE OF IFR RANGE OFBUSY HOUR ANNUAL BUSY HOUR ANNUAL
OPNS INSTRUMENT OPNS OPNS INSTRUMENT OPNS
0 0-43 32 47,557-50,1331 44-277 33 50,134-52,7662 278-658 34 52,767-55,4533 659-1,163 35 55,454-58,1944 1,164-1,778 36 58,195-60,9895 1,779-2,495 37 60,990-63,8386 2,496-3,309 38 63,839-66,7397 3,310-4,214 39 66,740-69,692a 4,215-5,206 40 69,693-72,6979 5,207-6,281 41 72,698-75,754
10 6,282-7,438 42 75,755-78,86211 7,439-8, 673 43 78,863-82,02112 8,674-9,985 44 82,022-85,23013 9,986-11,371 45 85,231-88,49014 11,372-12,829 46 88,491-91,79915 12,830-14,359 47 91,800-95,15716 14,360-15,958 48 95,158-98,56417 15,959-17,625 49 98,565-102,02018 17,626-19,359 50 102,021-105,52519 19,360-21,159 51 105,526-109,07820 21,160-23,023 52 109,079-112,67821 23,024-24,952 53 112,679-116,32622 24,953-26,943 54 116,327-120,02123 26,944-28,996 55 120,022-123,76424 28,997-31,110 56 123,765-127,55325 31,111-33,284 57 127,554-131,38826 33,285-35,518 56 131,389-135,27027 35,519-37,810 59 135,271-139,19828 37,811-40,161 60 139,199-143,17129 40,162-42,570 61 and over*30 42,571-45,03531 45,036-47,556
*Busy hour instrument operations for higher activity levels may be foundby solving the formula in Figure 7.
19
FIGURE 7
Relationship Between Busy IFR Hour Operations and Annual Primary Instrument OperationsBased on Regression Analysis of 252Towered Airports
60-m -,
50
40
C -,
0
4.)
1..J
30
00or
i /cc Busy Hour Instru- 5921863
ment Operations = .05352138 x (Annual Inst. Opns. )
20 - ---
10
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140
Annual Primary Instrument Operations (OGO)
20
Basing estimates of annual delay costs on the relatively few hours ofthe day that are "busy" may appear to understate those costs.However, delays increase exponentially with increases in trafficactivity, and the rise is very rapid as the operations rateapproaches capacity. Omitting the lower activity hours, therefore,will have little impact on total annual delays, and that impact willbe offset on those occasions when higher rates of operation areexperienced.
Total hours of aircraft delay per hour of airport operation multipledby average delay costs per hour yields the total cost of delaygenerated during one hour of airport operation. Delay costs includeaircraft variable operating costs and the value of aircraftpassengers'/occupants' time. "Aircraft variable operating costs," asused in this report, include the costs of flight crews (for aircarrier and air taxi), fuel and oil, and direct maintenance ofairframe, avionics and engine. Depreciation, amortization of capitalleases, insurance, hangar and tie-down fees, and other costs of afixed or semi-fixed nature are considered irrelevant for purposes ofmeasuring the cost of delay. The value of time of aircraftpassengers/occupants and aircraft variable operating costs used inthis report were taken from Reference 9. Hourly delay costs byaircraft type are illustrated in Appendix C and weighted andsummarized by user class in Figure 8.
FIGURE 8
Delay Cost Per Hour By User Class(1980 Dollars)
WeightedAircraftVariable Weighted Value of Occu-
User Operating Number of pants' Time Total DelayClass Cost/Hour Passengers/Occupantais/ @ $17.50/Hour Cost/Hour
Air Carrier $1,169 45.7 $800 $1,969
Air Taxi./ 174 4.8 84 258
General 79 2.7 47 126Aviation
Military 709 4.2 74 783
Sources: Appendices C, E-1 and E-2. Data are weighted by the expected mix of aircrafttypes within each user class at potential establishment candidate airports.
i/Because crew salaries are included in air carrier and air taxi variable operatingcosts, "passenger" load factors are used. "Occupant" load factors are used for thegeneral aviation and military user classes.2/Air taxi includes air commuter aircraft.
21
Reference 10 pro :ides an indication of percentage of traffic activity onan hourly basis for air carrier, general aviation, and militaryaircraft. Examining the data, he-.vy airport activity with respect tooperations takes place for about 4 hours a day during weekdays and 2hours a day during weekends, or about 1,252 hours a year. Reference 7documents the percentage of IFR weather from samplings of hourly airportweather observations segmented on a monthly basis and on an annual basisby 8-hour differentials for 271 airports. The Terminal Area ForecastData System, maintained by FAA-APO, also contains IFR weather data formany locations. Multiplying 1,252 hours by the average annual IFRoccurrence rate gives an estimate of the number of times a year a busyIFR hour occurs.
In order to determine the annual delay reduction benefits of ASR, thedelay time avoided per busy ]FR hour is multiplied by the frequency thatthe busy IFR hour occurs in a. year. The product yields the total time ofpreventable delay. This product multiplied by the hourly cost of delay(Figure 8) yields the dollar benefits of annual IFR delay reduction. The .life-cycle value of IFR delay reduction benefits is derived by computinga" aumming this value for each year of an ASR's 15-year economic lifeand discounting to the present value equivalent, or:
15DELTTOTy x I/(I+d)Y-0.5
y 1l L
where 'y' is each of 15 years of an ASR's economic life, 'IDELTOT' is thenondiscounted IFR delay reduction benefits in year 'y', and 'd' is theOMB-prescribed discount rate of ten percent. In cases where qualifyingradar service is provided by the airport to secondary airports under the -
"area concept" outlined in the introduction to this section, delayreduction benefits are computed independently for each of the respectiveairports.
An application of the above methodology in a manual computation of thebenefits of IFR delay reduction is illustrated in Section V. In actualpractice, this computation will be performed by a computer program in thePhase II benefit/cost screening process.
L2
22-
C. Safety Benefits
This section examines the me-asurement of safety provided by an ASR fromthe standpoint of avertable midair and terrain collisions, VPR radaradvisory service and radaL flight assists.
1. Collision Analysis
Two kinds of aircraft accident risks can potentially be reduced by ASRsystems - midair collision and terrain collision risks. The benefits ofthe expected reduction of these types of accidents are outlined in this -
section. Midair collisions, while not the most common form of accident,are a major concern of all facets of the air traffic control process.The air traffic control system maintains specified separation minimabetween aircraft while trying to expedite the movement of txaffic so asto decrease delays to users of the system. The large number of aircraftflying under visual flight rules in the typical ARTS terminal compoundsthis problem, especially during peak periods. The second kind ofaccident which can be potentially reduced by ASR systems is terraincollision accidents. ARTS II enhances the ability of the terminal airtraffic control system to reduce the incidence of such accidents by itsMinimum Safe Altitude Warning (MSAW) and Conflict Alert (CA) features.
a. Midair Collision Analysis
The availability of an ASI/ATCRBS/ARTS system provides a mechanism forreducing the risk and incidence of midair collisions. The basic dataused to derive Lpper bound midair collision avoidance benefits in this"report is from the Civil Aviation Midair Collisions Analysis(Reference 11), performed by the MITRE Corporation in 1973, and the 1974addendum to that report (Reference 12). The data was derived fromNational Transportation Safety Board accident reports for the nine yearperiod between January 1964 and December 1972. Although the analyses aresomewhat aged, their results are generally consistent with those of morecontemporary analyses, as indicated in the footnote to Figure 9. Thetotal midair collisions (and associated fatalities) were segregatedaccording to the place of occurrence (airport, enroute, or terminalarea), circumstance of collision (runway, midair, nature of ATC control,etc.) and, in the case of airport area collisions, whether the airportwas controlled or not.
Figure 9 provides a tabular summary of the results of regression analyses --
of airport area collisions over an eight year period at uncontrolled,controlled and VFR-'cowered airports from Reference 11. "Airport area" isdefined as the airspace within 5 nautical miles of the airport. Thegeneral form assumed was c - anb, where 'c' is the average number ofcollisions per airport over the period January 1964 - December 1971, 'a'and 'b' are the coefficients which yielded the least error between theactual and estimated numbers of collisions, and 'n' is the average numberof aircraft operations per airport in 1971 in units of 100,000. The 1972collision data provided by Reference 12 did not change the formulae.
23
FIGURE 9
Summary of Airport Area Collision Regression Analyses*
Airport Best Collision Estimator (c)Category For January 1964-December 1971
Uncontrolled 0.13n 0 - 9 2
Controlled 0.048n 1 -5 4
VFR Towers O.028n 2 - 3
*These formulae are applicable only over a relevant range of activity.
When scaled to an annual basis by a scaling factor of 7 to account for"activity growth over the eight year period, the airport collisionformulae become .019n 0 "9 2 and .007n 1 - 5 4 for uncontrolled andcontrolled airports, respectively. The latter is consistent with morecontemporary but preliminary wrk done by Graham and Faison
IL (Reference 13) which yields a formula of (n/10) 2 /2.3902 for controlledairports, again with n in 105 operations. The rationale for the thirdcategory, "VFR towers," is that none of the collisions at controlledairports occurred between aircraft which were sequenced on radar by theapproach control facility. Rather, the collijions typically occurred atvery busy general aviation airports where a busy local controller,without the benefit of a BRITE display, was responsible for procedurallysequencing all aircraft to the runway. Thus, this category represents an
I.. attempt to get at the subset of all controlled airports which actuallyproduced the observed collisions, i.e., the "VFR tower* airports. It isthis formula upon which the benefits of radar-preventable midaircollisions are based in this report.
The data base from which this relationship was derived included 296xidair collisions between January 1964 and December 1972. Thirty-fourASR-preventable midair collisions occurred within five miles ofcontrolled airports: 2 IFR-VFR collisions and 32 VFR-VPR collisions.The airport .area is defined as the airspace within 5 nautical miles ofthe airport. An additional 52 ASR-preventable midair collisions occurredSin terminal areas outside the airport area: 1 IFR-IFR collision, 12IFR-VFR collisions and 39 VFR-VFR collisions. The terminal area isdefined at the airspace within 30 nautical miles of the airport. Thus,for a nine year period, there were 86 airport and terminal area midaircollisions potentially avertable by today's ASR-9. If terminal areacollisions are distributed approximately in proportion to airportcollisions, an upper bound for the expected number of annual midaircollisions avertable by ASR can be estimated by:
86 x 0.028n 2 .3 - .010n 2 .3_34 7
wheru n is the number of annual aircraft operations in units of 100,000or 105. Based on this formula, Figure 10 outlines expected numbers ofASR-preventable midair collisions within the relevant range of activityfor new ASR establiskment locations.
24
FIGURE 10
Relationship Between Total Aircraft Operations and Number ofAvertable Midair Collisions Expected by ASR
Expected Number of AnnualAnnual Aircraft Operations Avertable Midair
(000) Collisions*
50 .00255 .00360 .00365 .00470 .00475 .00580 .00685 .00790 .00895 .009
100 .010105 .011110 .012115 .014120 .015125 .017130 .018135 .020140 .022145 .024150 .025155 .027160 .029 '.165 .032170 .034175 .036180 .039185 .041190 .044195 .046200 .049
Source: Reference 11
* The expected number of avertable midair collisions may be approximatedby solving for .010n 2 . 3 , where n is the number of annual aircraftoperations in units of 100,000.
25
The equation used to estimate the number of preventable midair collisionsas a function of total operations in this report yields significantly Ifewer collisions than the equation used in the current establishmentcriteria (Reference 2). Appendix F of Reference 11 contains a completediscussion of the merits of the formula used here versus the one used in
Reference 2. ,1
The costs of a midair collision include damage to aircraft, the value oflives lost and the costs of injuries. Collision losses used in thedevelopment of the criteria in this report are based on the unit valuesand costs outlined in Reference 9 and illustrated in Appendix D to thisreport. Expected midair collision costs per aircraft per involvement areillustrated in Figure 11. The Pxpected number of preventable midaircollisions multiplied by the appropriate collision costs for variousclasses of aircraft yields the estimated midair collision avoidancebenefits credited to the establishment of an ASR. The life-cycle valueof midair collision avoidance benefits is derived by computing and " -,
summing the expected value for each year of an ASR's 15-year economiclife and discounting to the present value equivalent, or:
1MACTlOTy x1(~)--,
where 'y' is each of an ASR's 15-year economic life, 'MACTOT' is thenondiscounted midair collision avoidance benefits in year 'y,' and 'd' isthe OMB-prescribed discount rate of ten percent.
The application of the above factors in a manual computation of the -
safety benefits of ASR is illustrated in Section VII. In actualpractice, this computation will be performed by a computer program in thePhase II benefit/cost screening process.
FIGURE 11
Expected Midair Collision Costs per Aircraft per Involvement(Thousands of 1980 Dollars)
Costs of Fatalities Cost of Air-
User Class and Injuries craft Damage Total Costs
Air Carrier $12,446 $1,871 $14,317
Air Taxi* 1,176 111 1,287
General Aviation 553 66 619
Military 1,038 1,108 2,146
Sources: Appendices D, E-1 and E-3. Data are weighted by the expected mix ofaircraft types within each user class at potential establishment candidateairports.
*Air taxi includes air commuter aircraft.
26
b. Terrain Collision Analysis
The major sources of safety benefits provided by ARTS was found in areport entitled ARTS II Enhancements Costs and Benefits (Reference 14) tobe its Mininum Safety Altitude Warning (MSAW) and Conflict Alert (CA)features. Benefits genarated from MSAW result from the prevention ofterrain collisions while those from CA result from the prevention ofmidair collisions. Since the preceding section on midair collisionsderives the total expected difference in incidence of midair collisionsbetween radar and non-radar environments, no further benefits areascribed to CA because to do otherwise would potentially result in doublecounting. The benefits attributable to preventable terrain collisionsoutlined below are from the above referenced report, updated to reflectthe value of a statistical life and aircraft replacement values (fromReference 9). The analysis of aircraft accidents used a series ofNational Transportation Safety Board files for accidents occurring nearARTS II candidate airports between 1967 and 1972 (during and at which41,540,000 aircraft operations took place). There were 104 fatalaccidents at or near the ARTS II sites during this period. Nineteen ofthese were collisions with the terrain or obstructions and wereconsidered potentially preventable by MSAW. In this group were 44fatalities and 19 general aviation aircraft destroyed. No air carrieraircraft were involved in any of these preventable accidents.
The benefits associated with MSAW can be calculated using the annual costof preventable terrain collision accidents. The total value of the livesand aircraft lost in the 19 fatal accidents over the six year period was$24,384,000 or $0.587 per operation, calculated as follows:
44 fatalities x $530,000 - $23,320,00019 GA aircraft x $56,000 - 1,064,000Total $24,384,000
Operations 41,540,000
Loss per operation $ 0.587
Since all of the fatal terrain collision accidents involved generalaviation aircraft, MSAW would only be effective if the aircraft wereequipped with altitude encoders. The preventable loss must be adjustedsince MSAW works only with altitude data. Figure 12 outlines percentagesof all aircraft (including air carrier, air taxi, general aviation andmilitary) which are estimated to be equipped with altitude encodingavionics over the next several years at a group of ARTS-II sites, asdeveloped in Reference 14.
-1
27
FIGURE 12
Forecasts of Mode C Usage (Total Aircraft Population)
Year Mode C Factor (%)
1982 481983 521984 561985 601986 641987 681988 721989 761990 801991 841992 881.993 921994 941995 95 (extrapolated)1996 96 (extrapolated)1997 97 (extrapolated)1998 98 (extrapolated)1999 99 (extrapolated)2000 100 (ext..-polated)
Thus, the present value benefits of MSAW over a 15 year life-cycle at a10 percent discount rate can be defined as:
15
Li $.587 x OPS x MO:ECF x (l/(l+d)Y-0.5)y-l
p- ,
where ly' is each of the 15 years of an ASR's economic life, 'OPS' isthe total aircraft operations in year 1y,' 'MODECF' is the Mode Cfactor in year 'y,' and 'd' is the OMB-prescribed discount rate often percent.
2. VFR Radar Advisory Service. VFR radar advisory service is providedan a work-permitting basis at towers which have terminal radar. It is aservice provided primarily to general aviation aircraft. The serviceconsists of radar traffic information, separation between an aircraftreceiving radar traffic information and observed traffic, safety advisoryto radar-identified aircraft when a situation appears to affect thesafety of the aircraft, altitude conflict separation, weather and chartinformation and radar navigation assistance to avoid those areas, birdactivity information, holding pattern surveillance and navigationguidance. All of these activities contribute to an absolute improvementof the level of safety in a radar environioent compared with a terminal
environment without radar, but none are easily quantified. Towers recordthe number of times the service is given, but the significance of eachevent is not recorde3 and would obviously be very difficult toascertain. Accordingly, no attempt has been made in this report toquantify and value these services. The significance of thia omission israther immaterial since the pilot can still resort to other FAA-providedmeans of assistance such as VHF Direction Finder and emergency servicesoffered through flight service stations (FSS), air route traffic controlcenters (ARTr() and tower facilities. ASR can be classified as only analternative and limited means of offering navigation assistance to pilotsin the immediate area of the airport.
3. Radar Flight Assists. Primary reasons for flight assists include thepilot being lost, low on fuel, caught on top and equipment malfunction.Flight assists can and are performed without the aid of radar, but theuser of flight assistance during an emergency enjoys a definite advantage
* when he is helped by a radar-equipped tower. The user, predominately aP general aviation itinerant pilot, is in a relatively safer position from
the time radar contact is established until the time he is in a safeposition on the ground. This relative safety is due to the fact that theuser is an identified target on the radar scope. He can be followed,guided and landed at the nearest suitable airport, or sent on his way.As in the case of VFR radar advisory service, radar flight assists affordan absolute improvement on the level of safety over that of a terminalenvironment which has no radar, hut their value is not easily --
quantified. Again, these intangible services are not taken into accountin the benefits developed in this report because of the difficulty oftheir measurement and valuation. Again this omission is not significant,since ASR should be viewed as only an alternative and limited means ofoffering navigation assistance to pilots in the immediate area of theairport. The pilot can still resort to other FAA-provided means ofassistance such as VHF Direction Finder and emergency services offeredthrough FSS, ARTOC and tower facilities.
D. Convenience
A third major benefit of ASR, both to the controller and the user, isthat of ccnvenience. The user benefits from the feeling of having addedprotection with radar. Convenience to the user arising from reducedflying time is addressed in an earlier part of this section dealing withIFR delay reduction. For the controller, convenience is realized fromthe reduction in the difficulty of retaining a mental image of theactivity he is controlling, or more simply, a reduction in the mentalstrain of moving traffic. Because there is insufficient data upon whichto attach a monetary value to these aspects of radar, they have not beenquantified in the benefits developed in this report.
29
SECTION V - DEVELOPMENT OF PHASE I ASR ESTABLISHMENTAND DISCONTINUANCE CRITERIA
This section explains how the Phase I ASR establishment anddiscontinuance criteria were derived. Phase I criteria, published inAirway Planning Standard Number One (Reference 1), are a set ofgeneralized criteria designed to initially identify potentialcandidates. Phase I criteria are easily applied with available datawithout the aid of a computer. Phase IIf is a site-specific computerizedbenefit/cost screening process under which candidates identified byPhase I are further evaluated. Figure 14 of Section VI provides Phase Iand 11 results for all principal FAA approach control towers (other thanCIFRR's, CERAP's, RAPCON's and! RATCF's) based on extrapolated TerminalArea Forecasts over the 15 year period Fiscal Years 1982 through 1996. IAt any given site, the respective contributions of IFR delay reductionand safety benefits to the Phase II benefit/cost ratio can be expressedas:
Delay Reduction u TSAVE1 x PRIMI x BHIOl x VOCI x (PIFR/100) x BHPY x NDFComponent of Ben- DISCSTefit/Cost Ratio
L
Accident Reduction - (MACBEN 1 + TRCBENI) x OPS1 x NDFComponent of Ben- DISCSTefit/Cost Ratio
where for the first year of operation:
BC is the Phase II benefit/cost ratio,
TSAVE is the number of delay hours saved per aircraft per hour of airportoperation (a function of airport capacity busy hour operations and userclass mix),
PRIM is the number of primary instrument operations,
BHIO is the number of operations during a busy IFR hour,
VOC is the hourly variable operating cost of the aircraft mix,
PIFR is the percent of time that IFR weather prevails,
BHPY is the number of busy hours per year,
NDF is a factor by which first year benefits can be inflated to theirlife-cycle equilavent, taking into account discounting and activitygrowth,
DISCST is the life-cycle cost,
MACBEN is the expected benefit per operation of averted midair collisions,
TRCBEN is the expected benefit per operation of averted terraincollisions, and
OPS is the number of total aircraft operations.
3(
• . ... •.
The objective in developing Phase I criteria is to derive a simplerelationship that when applied to first year activity data will produce areasonable approximation of the Phase II benefit/cost ratio. Thisrelationship should be sensitive to activity by user class compositionbecause the value of ASR benefits differs by user class. Note in theabove formulae that the activity measures used to determine the benefitsof IFR delay reduction and collision avoidance benefits are primaryinstrument operations (PRM) and total aircraft operations (OPS),repsecti vely.
For each FAA towered airport, values of PRIM1 and OPS 1 for oach userclass required to achieve a life-cycle benefit/cost ratio of! unity (i.e.,where benefits just break-even or offset costs) were calculated using thecomputer progres described in Appendix V. The range of values derivedfor OPS was narrow, with medians of 107,400 for air carrier, 539,600 for
I * air taxi, 847,200 for general aviation and 376,200 for military.Unfortunately the results obtained for PRIM were disparate because sitespecific weather (PI1R) and PRIM are unrelated and there is anexponential relationship between TSAVE and BRIO on the one hand and PRIMon the other. This poor correlation result could be overcome by makingPIFR a separate part of the Phase I computation and by using exponents inthe Phase I criteria or constructing a table look-up for the relationshipbetween TSAVE, BFMO and MRIM. Unfortunately, this enhancement conflictswith the ideal of keeping the Phase I criteria as simple as possible andmet with resistance during coordination of preliminary draft 4ersions ofthis report. Tha Phase I criteria finally adopted, the computationprocedure and nomenclature for which are outlined below in Figure 13,correlate very well with the Phase II criteria results in the area ofsafety but not as well in the area of delay reduction,
FIGURE 13
Phase I Criteria
Contributing Benefit Ratio Value
Delay Reduction:
ACPRIM - xxxx3,400 - (.0013 x PRIM)*
ATPRIM xXXX26,000 - (.0096 x PRIM)*
GAPRIM - xxxx
53,300 - (.0196 x PIM)*
ZLPRIM - xxXX8,600 - (.0032 x PPIM)*
31
FIGURE 13 (Continued)
Safety:
ACITN xxxx107,400
ATITN -xxxx
539,600
GAITN + GALCL xxxx847,200
rl'ITN + M.LUCL xxxx376,200
Sum of Ratio Values If 1 or greater, locationsatisfies Phase Iestablishment criteria
*If the denominator for any user class results in a value equal to orless than zero, disregard all denominators and use all of the following"instead. For the air carrier user class: 9,300 - (.0034 x PRIM); forthe air taxi user class: 71,200 - (.0262 x PRIM); for the generalaviation user class: 146,000 - (.0538 x PRIM); and for the military userclass: 23,400 - (.0086 x PRIM).
ACPRIM, ATPRIM, GAPRIM and MLPHIM, for a primary airport, are the numbersof a..nual primary instrument operations of the air carrier (FAR 121, 127and ",29), air taxi these term (FAR 135), general aviaticn (FAR 91) and -
military (FAR 91) user classes, respectively. For a qualified secondaryairport, these terms are the numbers of annual primary instrumentoperations of the secondary airport by user class, or the respectivenumbers of secondary instrument operations by user class of the primaryairport associated with or allocable to the secondary airport, whicheverare greater.
PRIM, for a primary airport, is the number of total annual primaryinstrument operations (i.e., the sum of ACRIM, ATPRIM, GAPRIM andMLPRIM). PRIM, for a qualified secondary airport, is the number of totalannual primary instrument operations of the secondary airport, or thenumber of total annual secondary instrument operations of the primaryairport associated with or allocable to the secondary airport, whicheveris greater.
ACITN, ATITN, GAITN and MLITN are the numbers of annual itinerantoperations of the air carrier, air taxi, general aviation and militaryuser classes, respectively.
32
GALCL and MLLCL are the numbers of annual local operations of the generalaviation and military user classes, respectively.
When an ASR facility is being considered for discontinuance, initialacquisition and installation costs are irrelevant since they are sunkcosts. The only relevant costs are recurring operations and maintenancecosts, ignoring salvage value, relocation costs, etc. To determinewhether an ASR facility meets Phase I discontinuance criteria, a ratiovalue is calculated by the same sum-of-ratios approach described abovefor Phase I establishment criteria. If the ratio value so obtained isleos than 0.35, the location satisfies Phase I discontinuance criteria.The 0.35 figure is an approximation of the level where the life-cyclebenefit5 just offset recurring life-cycle operations and maintenancecosts.
ideally, there should be a close relationship between candidatesidentified in Phase I (simple criteria) and candidates meeting abenefit/cost ratio of 1 or more in Phase I1 (computerized benefit/costanalysis). If not, one or both of two undesirable situations can occur.First, locations may show up as candidates under Phase I but fail toreflect an acceptable benefit/coot ratio under Phase I1, a situationwhich is termed "false alarm." Secondly, and more critically, locationsmay not show up as candidates under Phase I but attain a benefit/costratio of 1 or more under Phase II screening, a situation termed"non-identification." In the development of the Phase I establishmentcriteria, the emphasis was primarily to keep the Phase I (riteria assimple as possible and secondarily to maintain a reasonable relationshipbetween the benefit/cost ratios derived from both Ipases. As a result ofthis approach, Figtre 14 sbows 24 instances of false alarm but noinstances of non-identification of'over 200 FAA approach control towers.
33i
S1%CTION VI - RESULTS OF APPLYING PREVIOUS AND REVISED ASR CRITERIATO ALL FAA APPIR0ACH CONTROL TOWERS AND IMPACT ANALYSIS
OF REVISED ASR CRITERIA
The computer program described in Appendix F, based on the benefit/costmethodology described in Sections III, IV and V, was used to computePhase I and Phase II benefit/cost ratios for all FAA-operated approachcontrol towers (excluding CIFRR's, CERAP's, RAPCON's and RATCF's) in theTerminal Area Forecasts (TAP) (Reference 25) over the 15 year periodFiscal Years 1982 through 1996. The results are outlined in Figure 14.Figure 14A outlines the results by descending Phase II benefit/costratio, Figure 14B in LOCID sequence, and Figure 14C in state sequence.Also included are the Phase II benefit/cost ratios derived from applyingthe previous ASR criteria. The benefit/cost ratios outlined in Figure 14are based only on activity at the primary airport and do not reflect anybenefits that might be attributable to radar coverage provided toqualified secondary airports, if'any, under the "area concept" outlinedin Section IV. The Air Traffic Service will determine eligible locationsin this category.
Order 1320.1 requires an assessment of the impact of the revised criteriaon agency resources. It is impossible, however, to "precisely" assessthe impact fr several reasons. First, meeting candidacy levels does notby itself entail automatic qualification. Benefit/cost screening is butone of several inputs to the FAA decisionmaking process relative toinvestment in ASR facilities. Investment decisions are made on the basisof all pertinent factors. Second, neighboring airports having a commonneed for radar surveillance may collectively qualify for an ASR under the"area concept" introduced in Section IV of this report. Qualifying sitesin this category will be determined on a case by case basis by the AirTraffic Service. And third, actual costs vary from site to site.Estimated site-specific costs will be applied in actual application ofthe criteria.
Aside from these qualifications, the relative impact of the revised ASRestablishment and discontinuance criteria may be assessed by comparingthe number of FAA approach control towers which qualify under thebenefit/cost provisions of the revised criteria with the number thatqualify under the previous criteria. Figure 14D summarizes Figure 14A byranges of Phase II benefit/cost ratios of FAA approach control towers(other than CIFRR's, CERAP's, RAPOON's and RATCF's) under the revised andprevious ASR criteria. The revised criteria result in 13 newestablishment candidates and 2 discontinuance candidates, while theprevious criteria result in 9 new establishment candidates and 5discontinuance candidates. Projections through FY 1987 suggest anadditional 6 new establishment candidate.• under the revised criteria and4 under the previous criteria. Again, potential establishment candidatesthat may qualify under the "area concept" are not reflected in theseimpact assessments. A sensitivity analysis is provided in Section IX.
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46
FIGURE 14D
Summary of Results of Applying Previous and Revised ASR Criteriato all FAA Approach Control Towersa/
Phase IIBenefi t/Cost
Ratio Previous Criteria Revised Criteria
0.00 - 0.342/ 32- 3O•
0.35 0.74 15/ 12Y
0.75 - 0.99 2d/ 3
1.00 - 1.34 2/ /
1.35 and above 153e/ 157f/
a/ Source- Figure 14A. Excludes CIFRR's, CERAP's, RAPCON's and
RATCF's and benefits that may be attributable to radar coverageprovided to qualified secondary airports, if any, under the "areaconcept" outlined in Section IV.
b_/ As of September 1981, 3 of these locations had radar equipment andservice (Reference 26).
c/ As of September 1981, 2 of these locations had radar equipmentand/or service (Reference 26). :.
d/ As of September 1981, 1 of these locations had radar equipment andservice (Reference 26).
As of September 1981, 144 of these locations had radar equipment orservice (Reference 26).
Sf/ As of September 1981 145 of these locations had radar equipment orservice (Reference 26).
2/ Range of discontinuance criteria under the revised criteria. Of the30 locations that fall in this range under the revised criteria, 3had ASR as of September 1981. Tentatively applying the "areaconcept" criteria discussed in Section IV reduces this to 2discontinuance candidatos.
_h/ Range of discontinuance criteria under the previous criteria. Ofthe 47 locations that fall in this range under the previouscriteria, 5 had ASR as of September 1981 and therefore satisfy theprevious discontinuance criteria.
47
Sb-rION VII - A MANUAL METHOD FOR COMPUTINGTHE PHASE II ASR ESTABLISHMENT BENEFIT/COST RATIO
In actual practice, candidates found to satisfy Phase I criteria(simplified criteria) will be further screened under Phase II criteria(site-specific benefit/cost analysis) by a computer program. Tofacilitate understanding of the logic incorporated in the Phase IIscreening process by program analysts, auditors and othecs, this sectiondescribes in detail a manual method for computing the Phase II ASR
establishment benefit/cost ratio. Figures 15 through 24 are designed toserve as worksheets for manually computing the Phase II benefit/costratio. Additional copies of Figures 16, 18 and 21 may be required ininstances where there exist secondary airports qualified under the "areaconcept" discussed in Section IV. It may be noted that several of theworksheets include 4-engine turbofans/turbojets. Obviously, terminalsthat serve these aircraft types are already equipped with and/or servedby ASR. Conversely, airports within the range of interest in thia report -
for new radar establishment do not serve these aircraft types. Theirp inclusion here is without impact and only for completeness ofpresentation.
The step-by-step methodology outlined in this section is supplementedwith an illustration in Figures 25 through 34 for Binghamton BroomeCounty Airport, NY (BGM) (which already has an ASR), including one of itssecondary or satellite airports, Endicott Tri-Cities Airport (N17), whichfor purposes of this illustration is assumed to meet the "area concept"criteria outlined in Section II. 1982 activity forecasts are used.Application of the manual approach to computing the Phase II benefit/costratio should be based on site-specific data since these program inputs,if available, should be used for the computerized Phase II benefit/costscreening process. In addition to being specified in the followingsteps, Appendix F provides a checklist for those program inputs whichshould be site-specific, for those which are fixed for all candidates,and those for which default values may be used in the absence ofsite-specific data. The manual computation of the Phase II benefit-costratio described in this section quantifies the expected life-cyclebenefits by discounting future year benefits using a site-specificcompound growth rate. The computerized Phase II benefit/cost screeningwill rely on official agency traffic forecasts specific to the potentialcandidate site over fifteen years to derive the present value of theexpected life-cycle benefits.
IFR Delay Reduction Benefits
Step 1
Enter the annual number of primary instrument operations by user class inColuin A of Figure 15 for the primary airport. In Column A of each copyof Figure 16 for each qualified secondary airport, if any, enter thenumber of primary instrument operations by user class or the number ofsecondary instrument operations of the primary airport allocable to thesecondary airport, whichever is larger. In the Binghamton/Endicottillustration (Figures 25 and 26), Binghamton (the primary airport) has42,480 primary instrument operations. Assuming Endicott is its only
48
a _ _ -_ _ _ _ _ _
qualifying secondary airport by satisfying the "area concept" criteria
outlined in Section IV, 100 percent of Binghamton's 7,668 secondaryinstrument operations are allocable to Endicott. Since Endicottgenerates no primary instrument opt-rations on 3-ts own, Endicotts.instrumebt operations total 7,668.
stop 2
In Column B of Figure 15 for the primary airport and Column B of eachcopy of Figure 16 for each qualif'ed secondary airport, enter the percentof annual instrument operations represented by each user class bydividing the annual instrument operations in Column A by the respectivetotals. The sum of the percentages should equal 100 or approximate 100in the event of a rounding effect.
Step 3
Disaggregate each user class by aircraft type in percentage terms and
enter the percentages in Column C of Figure 15 for the primary airport'and Column C of each cow of Figure 16 for each qualified secondaryairport. The. sum of the percentages for each user class should equal 100or approximate 100 in the event of a rounding effect. For purposes ofthe Binghamton/Endicott illuistration (Figures 25 and 26), the
distribution of instrument aircraft by aircraft type within the air taxi,
general aviation and military user classes are based on national norms,
as illustrated in Apendix F--2. For the air carrier user class, the
distribution of aircraft by aircraft type is site-specific based onpublished statistics from References 15 and 16. In the computerizedPhase II benefit/cost screening process, only the air carrier user class
requires dissaggregation by aircraft type. The aircraft typedisaggregation of the other user classes are fixed based on nationalnorms (Appendix &-2).
Step 4
Reference Figure 6 to determine the estimated number of instrument
operations during a busy hour at the primary airport and each qualifiedsecondary airport. Enter this (these) values in the space(s) provided inthe heading(s) of Column D of Figure 15 for the primary airport andColumn D of each copy of Figure 16 for each qualified secondary airport. i'1In the Binghamton/Endicott illustration (Figures 25 and 26), 42,480
annual primary instrument operations equates to 29 instrument operationsduring a busy hour at Binghamton, the primary airport; for.Endicott, thesecondary airport, 7,668 annual instrument operations equates to 11instrument operations during a busy hour.
Step 5
In Figure 15 for the primary airport and each copy of Figure 16 for each
qualified secondary airport, find the expected mix of aircraft during abusy :FR hour by multiplying the results from steps 2 (Column B), 3(Column C) and 4 and dividing the product by 10,000 for each aircratttype. Enter the quotient(s) in Column D.
49
Transcribe the instrument aircraft mix of the primary airport fromnColumn D of Figure 15 to Column A of Figure 17 and from Column D of eachcopy of Figure 16 to Column A of each copy of Figure 18 for eachqualified secondary airport.
Step?7
In Figure 17 for the primary airport and each copy of Figure 18 for eachqualified secondary airport, determine the hourly aircraft variableoperating cost for each aircraft type mix by multiplying the number ofinstrument aircraft (Column A) by t1 'e respective aircraft hourly variableoperating cost (preprinted in Column B). Enter the product(s) inColumn C. •'
Enter the average number of passengers for the air carrier and air taxiuser classes and the average number of occupants for the general aviationand military user classes for each aircraft type in Column D of Figure 17for the primary airport and Column D of each copy of Figure 18 for eachqualified secondary airport. For purposes of the Binghamton/Endicottillustration (Figures 27 and 28) and the computer-generated Phase IIbenefit/cost ratios outlined for all FAA approach control towers inSection VI, passenger and occupant load factors are based on nationalnorms, as derived from References 17, 18, 19 and 20. These areillustrated in Appendix C.
* step 9
In Figure 17 for the primary airport and each copy of Figure 18 for eachqualified secondary airport, determine the value of passengers'/occupants'time per hour for each aircraft type mix by multiplying the number ofaircraft (Column A), the average number of passengers/occupants peraircraft (Column D), and $17.50 (the hourly value of time of aircraftpassengers/occupants in 1980 dollars). Enter the product(s) in Column E.
Step 10
In Figure 17 for the primary airport and each copy of Figure 18 for eachqualified secondary airport, find the sum of aircraft variable operatingcosts (Column C) and the value of occupants'/passengers' time (Column E)to arrive at the total hourly operating cost of each aircraft type mix.Enter the sum(s) in Column F. Sum all values in Column F to find thetotal cost of operating the instrument aircraft mix for one hour.
Step 11
Find the percent of total annual instrument operations represented by theair carrier user class from Column B of Figure 15 for the primary airportand Column B of each copy of Figure 16 for each qualified secondaryairport. Round to the nearest 10 percent. If less than 20 percent,round up to 20 percent; if greater than 90 percent, round down to 90percent. With this (these) percentage(s) and the number(s) of total
50
instrument operations during a busy hour from Column D of Figure 15 forthe primary airport and Column D of each copy of Figure 16 for eachqualified secondary airport, refer to Figure 5 to find the number ofhours saved per aircraft per hour of airport operation. Enter this(these) value(s) in the appropriate space(s) in Row A of Figure 19.Applying Binghamton's 29 instrument operations per busy hour and a 20%air carrier instrument mix (rounded up from 6.61) to Figure 5, we find anexpected savings of 1.931 hours per aircraft per hour of airportoperation (Figure 29). Similarly, applying Endicott's 11 instrumentoperations per busy hour and a 20% air carrier instrument mix (rounded upto lower limit) to Figure 5, we find an expected savings of .021 hours ;'per aircraft per hour of airport operation (Figure 29).
Step 12
Transcribe the total hourly cost of aircraft operation andpassengers'/occupants' time from Column F of Figure 17 for the primaryairport and Column F of each copy of Figure 18 for each qualified secondairport to the appropriate space(s) in Row B of Figure 19.
"Step 13
In Figure 19, find the total delay savings per busy IFR hour at theprimary airport and each qualified secondary airport per hour of airportoperation by multiplying the avetage delay savings per aircraft per hourof airport operation (Row A) by the total hourly operating cost of theaircraft mix (Row B). Enter the product(s) in Row C.
steop 14
From local statistics or Section VI, find the proportionate hours of theyear that instxument approach weather prevails at the primary airport andeach qualified secondary airport. Enter the value(s) in the appropriatespace(s) of Row D of Figure 19.
Step 15
In Figure 19, find the number of busy IFR hours per year at the primaryairport and each qualified secondary airport by multiplying thepercentage of time that IFR weather prevails (Column D) by 1,252 hours.The 1,252 value is the annual national norm of IFR weather prevailancebased on 4-hours during weekdays and 2 hours during weekends. Enter theproduct(s) in Row E.
Step 16
In Figure 19, find the value of annual delay savings for the primaryairport and each qualified secondary airport by multiplying the totaldelay savings per busy IFR hour (Row C) by the number of busy IFR hours
*, per year (Row E). Enter the product(s) in Row F.
Step 17
Find the value of total annual delay savings for all airports (primaryairport and qualified secondary airports) by summing Row F of Figure 19.Enter the sum in the space provided.
51
""-,- - .- - -,. t*:-*s-
Safety Benefits
Step 18
Enter the number of annual aircraft operations for each user class inColumn A of Figure 20 for the primary airport and Column A of each copyof Figure 21 for each qualified secondary airport. Sum the values of theuser classes to determine total annual aircraft operations at the primaryairport and each qualified secondary airport.
"S-top 19
Disaggregate each user class b; aircraft type in percentage terms andenter the percentages in Column B of Figure 20 for t'•e primary airportand Column B of each copy of F:Lgure 21 for each qualified secondaryairport. The sum of the percentages for each user class should equal 100or approximate 100 in the event of a rounding effect. For purposes ofthe Binghamton illustration (Figure 30), the distributions of aircraft byaircraft type within the air taxi, general aviation and military userclasses are based on national norms, as illustrated in Appendix E-3. Forthe air carrier user class, the distribution of aircraft by aircraft typeis site-specific based on published stati stics from References 15 and16. In the computerized Phase II benefit/cost screening process, onlythe air carrier user class requires disaggregation by aircraft type. Theaircraft type disaggregations of the other user classes are fixed basedon national norms (Appendix E-3).
Step 20
In Figure 20 for the primary airport and each copy of Figure 21 for eachqualified secondary airport, find the mix of aircraft in all operationsby multiplying Column A by Column B and dividing the product by 100 foreach aircraft type. Enter the results in Column C. Sum Column(s) C inFigure 20 and any copies of Figure 21.
step •21
Cross sum the annual operations by aircraft type over the primary andqualified secondary aiirports in Columns C of Figure 20 and all copies ofFigure 21. Enter the sum for each aircraft type in Column A of Figure 22.
"Step 22
Enter in Column B of Figure 22 the occupant load factor for each aircrafttype within the air carrier and air taxi user classes by makingallowances for crews to the passenger load factors used in Columns D ofFigures 17 and 18. The occupant load factors for the general aviationand military user classes used in Figures 17 and 18 should be transcribeddirectly to Column B of Figure 92.
Step 23 -1In Figure 22 find the expected contributory costs of fatalities andserious injuries per aircraft for each aircraft type by multiplying theaircraft mix (Column A), the number of occupants per aircraft (Column B),the expected costs of fatalities and serious injuries per occupant(preprinted in Column C) and dividing the resultant product by the totalaircraft mix. Enter the result for each aircraft type in Column D.
Step 24
In Figure 22 find the expected contributory cost of aircraft damage peraircraft for each aircraft type by multiplying the aircraft mix(Column A) by the expected cost of aircraft damage per aircraft(preprinted in Column 9) and dividing the resultant product by the totalai.-craft mix. Enter the result for each aircraft type in Column F.
Step 25
In Figure 22 sum the expected contributory costs of fatalities and
serious injuriet; (Column D) and the expected contributory cost ofaircraft damage per aircraft (Column F) for each aircraft type. Enterthe result for -pach aircraft type in Column G. Sum Column G to determinethe expected cost of a midair collision per aircraft.
Step 26
Transcribe the number of total annual aircraft operations from Column Aof Figure 22 to both spaces provl.ded in Row A of Figure 23.
Step 27
In Row B of Figure 23, enter the expected number of avertable midaircollisions by referring to Figure 10 or by solving the formula outlinedin the footnote to Figure 10. 2Ste12 28
Multiply the total expected cost of a midair collision per aircraft inColumn G of Figure 22 by the factor "2" (i.e., two aircraft per midaircollision).. Enter the product in Column C of Figure 23.
Step 29 -_
Refer to Figure 12 to determine the Mode C usage factor. As an
approximation of the average factor over the 15-year economic life nf anASR system, use that factor corresponding to the base year plus sevenyears. Enter the factor in Column D of Figure 23. In theBinghamton/Endicott illustration (Figure 33), the Mode C usage factor isfound to be 76%.
Step 30
Find the expected value of annual avertable midair collisions bymultiplying the expected number of annual avertable midair collisions
(Column B) by the expected coot of amidair collision (Column C). Enter
the product in the space provided in Column E. Find the value ofavertable terrain collisions by multiplying the number of total aircraftoperations (Column A), the coot of terrain collisions per operation(preprinted in Column C) and the Mode C usage factor (Column D). Enterthe product in the space provided in Column E. Find the expected valueof all avertable collisions by adding the respective values in Column E.Enter the sum in the space provided.
Benefit/Cost Ratio
Stop 31
Transcribe the expected annual value of IFR delay reduction from Row F ofFigure 19 to Row A of Figure 24 and the expected annual value ofavertable collisions from Column E of Figure 23 to Row B of Figure 24.
Step 32
Add Rows A and B of Figure 24 to arrive at total expected annualquantified benefits of an ASR in the base year. Enter this sum in Row C.
Step 33 , :
Compute the site-specific net discount factor by solving the following
formula:
,.Projected Total aircraft Opns ind1 "Base Year + 7 years"
NDF ( (I + d)7.5 Autual Total aircraft Opns.'in 1"Base Year" )(5)
where,
NDr w net discount factord w OMB-prescribed discount rate of 10 percent
For the Binghamton/Endid 6 tt illustration, assume there are 191,000 totalaircraft operations in the base year and 224,000 total aircraftoperations projected for the seventh year thereafter. The net discountfactor is then computed to be:
NDF ((1.1)7.5 185,000 (15) 10.71
Enter the result in the space provided in Row D of Figure 24.
This step is only a short-cut method of discounting the total approximateHlife-cycle benefits over 15 years to their present value. Thecouputerized Phase II screening benefit/cost process is more specific inthat each year is addressed separately and independently of the others.
54
Step 34
Multiply the total annual benefits in Column C of Figure 24 by the netdiscount factor computed in Step 34. Enter the product in Row D.
Step 35
Enter the site-specific discounted life-cycle cost of an ASR system inRow E of Figure 24 based on the methodology outlined in Figure 1 for aTRACAB configuration or Figure 2 for a TRAMDN configuration, asappropriate. The criteria for TRACAB/TIRCCN are outlined in paragraph "of Section II.
Step 36
In Figure 24, find the ASR Phase II benefit/cost ratio by dividing thetotal discounted life-cycle benefits (Row D) by the discounted life-cyclecosts (Row E). Enter the quotient in Row F. As illustrated inFigure 34, Binghamton•/ndicott easily qualify for an ASR with abenefit/cost ratio of 6.51. Note how similar this manually computedPhase II benefit/coat ratio is with the computer-generated Phase IIbenefit/cost ratio of 6.36 computed for Binghamton in Figure 14 ofSection VI. The difference can be attributed principally to the factthat the computer-generated benefit/cost ratio was derived fec Binghamtononly and includes no credit for radar coverage provided to Endicott,while in the benefit/cost ratio computed manually in this section doesinclude Endicott. Also, the camputer-generated benefit/cost ratio isbased on discounted traffic forecasts specific to Binghamton, while thebenefit/cost ratio computed manually in this section is based on a lessprecise net discount factor concept.
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Annual Benefits (C) xNet Discount Factor of
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A Annual Benefits of IFR Delay $ 5,291,730Peluction (Base Year)
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Tt Annual Base Year $ 5,453,330C ' Quantified Benefits (A + B)
D Annual Benefits (C) x $58,405,164Net Discount Factor of 10.71
E Total Discounted Life-Cycle Costs $ 8,970,000
F Benefit/Cost Ratio (D / E) 6.51
71
SECTION VIII - DEVELOPMENT OF SUPPLEMENTAL CRITERIA
In addition to revising ASR establishment criteria, this report reviewsand/or revises the supplemental criteria relative to ASR facilities.This section outlines the development of the ASR supplemental criteriaoutlined in Section II: discontinuance, improvements, remoted radarbright display scope, establishment of terminal radar approach control intower cab (TRACAB), establishment of terminal radar approach control(TRACON) and TRACAB to TRACON conversion. Like the establishmentcriteria, the discontinuance criteria are based on a detailedbenefit/cost analysis. The other supplemental criteria, however, aze notreadily adaptable to rigorous benefit/cost analyses for system-wideapplication. Rather, they are based on activity levels at which there isexpected to exist reasonable relationships between benefits and costs.
A. Discontinuance
Since initial ASR acquisition and installation costs are sunk costs, theonly relevant costs when an ASR system is being considered fordecommissioning are recurring operations and maintenance costs, ignoringsalvage value, relocation costs, etc. An ASR system should bedecommissioned if the present value of the life-cycle operating andmaintenance costs exceed the present value of the benefits expected overthe remaining useful life of the system. Using the life-cycle cost datain Figures 1 and 2 as a basis, it is estimated that this condition isreached whenever a benefit/cost ratio of less than 0.35 is derived whenapplying the detailed benefit/cost methodology for new radarestablishment.
B. Imn rovements
Existing radar approach control facilities frequently requireimprovements to satisfy operational requirements and/or facilitate theprovision of terminal area radar service. The varying and diverse natureand costs of such improvements prohibit a meaningful and rigorousbenefit/cost analysis for system-wide application. However, experiencesuggests instrument activity ranges where the marginal benefits areexpected to exceed costs. This approach was used to derive the revisedimprovements criteria outlined in Section II.
C. Remoted Radar Bright Display Scope
Remoted radar bright display scopes are occasionally installed in VFRtowers of secondary or satellite airports receiving radar service from aprimary airport. As with the improvements criteria discussed above,experience can be relied upon to identify an activity level at or abovewhich a remoted radar bright display sxipe can be expected to beeconomically justified. In addition to changing the qualifying level ofitinerant operations, the revised criteria outlined in Section II
76
eliminate the requirement tghat the riecordmlry .irr)-,r i. ,-tithin l-.
miles and wi thi.n microwa we l.nl rn' e vF rh!• ,. Fg ',r-- .. (lT ; ( . ; . .
system, because microwave l.ink reprnt•,r c•n ho ii. ) /m'r 'nn r tr -al os o iii~u].rmo-...rr~ . " . ,Inal l,, "ir,'7 -
almost indeflinitely or . ,] moi'inri m.t'; 1v .. rl T,'
FAA control tower which is satellite to P Ynilitai:y radrar anppro•c.h contr)o.facility can benefit from a remoted radar bright display scope, theprevious requirement that the radar approach control facility be an FAAfacility has been eliminated.
D. TRACAB and TRACON
Radar service can be configured into either of two housing designs -TRACAB or TRACON. A TRACAB (Terminal Radar Approich Control in TowerCAB) is a facility that provides radar approach control service frompositions located in the tower cab, as opposed to a TRACON (TerminalRadar Approach Control) in which radar approach control service isprovided from positions located in a separate IFR room.
Historically, the principal technical questicons of TPACAB feasibilityrevolved around the adequacy of the BRITE radar. scope 5display and spacecongestion in the tower cab. Early diF.ficul.ties were experience with
utilization of the BRITE display in the tower cab cne to the high amhbi-n-tlight level. Howeverp with existing improveirerits in BRITE displayperformance the consensus currently is that the TRACAB concept isfeasible and can work effectively at some maximum level of operations.Currently, the only impact of adding a separate TRACON or IFR room is torelieve congestion in the tower cab. As more radar nositions arerequired due to increased sectorizat-ioin r(wnd,:& by qgrwing t':-ifficcounts, it becomes imoossible to sq'Ueeze the "br y ."these radar positions into the tovler cab. týJitbont some radical, revisionof cab design concepts, the physical size of the cab linits the neak houroperations that can be accommodated.
An earlier benefit/cost analysis of the TRACAB concept (Reference 21.)found that the major cost savings made possible by the TRACAB was areduction in controllers required. This reduction is due primarily toeliminating flight data positions in the IFR room. Reduced coordinationeffort is also an advantage when all radar controllers and cab personnelare co-located. Thus, there is normally a positive cost advantage toutilizing a TRACAB configuration. The cost of converting a TRACABfacility to a TRACON is highly site dependent. in some cases, adequatespace may be available close to the tower. Tn otb-r cases, nCwconstruction is required, possibly at some distance from the tower.Thus, each site should be surveyed to determine a reliable cost impactprior to an establishment decision. Typical TRACAB and TRACON costdifferentials are outlined in further detail in Section III.
Review of several evaluations of tower cab configurati.ons (References 22through 24) and Air Traffic Service experience suggests that the currentprovisions in Airway Planning Standard Number One, Order 7031.2B, arevalid operational and economic determinants for determining how a radarapproach control facility should initially be established and fordetermining when a TRACAB should be converted to a TRACON. Therefore,the current provisions of these supplcemental criteria, in effect since8/13/80 by Change 18 to the subject order, remain intact.
This DocumentReproduced From
Best Available Copy
7 7
SECTION IX - SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS
In the computation of the benefit/cost ratio for ASR, there are a numberof constants and variables which are used to quantify benefits. Thissection addresses the sensitivity of the benefit/cost ratio to variationsin those factors which are defined by uncertain or judgmentalparameters. These factors include the number of instrument operationsduring a busy hour, the percentage of time that IFR weather prevails, thevalue of time of aircraft passengers/occupants, the probability of amidair collision, the cost of a midair collision, the cost of a terraincollision and the value of a statistical life. To get some indication ofthe sensitivity of these factors on the benefit/cost ratio, sampleselected airports with Phase II benefit/cost ratios of 0.56 (ABY), 0.71(GNV), 0.87 (HUT), 1.21 (LSE), 1.38 (ELM) and 1.50 (MWH) were examinedwith specific percentAge increases and decreases in these variables.
Airport With B/C Ratio ofi
0.56 0.71 0.87 1.21 1.38 1.50
Number of Instrument Operations During a Busy Hour
50% decrease 0.05 0.07 0.08 0.28 0.32 0.3520% decrease 0.10 0.13 0.16 0.39 0.44 0.4810% decrease 0.22 0.28 0.34 0.65 0.74 0.80
When computed or standard value used 0.56 0.71 0.87 1.21 1.38 1.5010% increase 1.09 1.39 1.70 1.90 2.17 2.3620% increase 1.66 2.10 2.58 2.46 2.80 3.0450% increase 2.34 2.96 3.63 2.82 3.22 3.50
Percentage of Time that IFR W.eather Prevails
50% decrease 0.30 0.38 0.47 0.74 0.84 0.9220% decrease 0.46 0.58 0.71 1.02 1.17 1.2710% decrease 0.51 0.65 0.80 1.12 1.27 1.38When computed or standard value used 0.56 0.71 0.87 1.21 1.38 1.5010% increase 0.61 0.78 0.95 1.30 1.49 1.6220% increase 0.66 0.84 1.03 1.40 1.59 1.7350% increase 0.82 1.04 1.27 1.68 1.92 2.08
Value of Time of Aircraft Passengers/Occupants
50% decrease 0.48 0.61 0.75 1.03 1.18 1.2820% decrease 0.53 0.68 0.83 1.14 1.30 1.4110% decrease 0.55 0.69 0.85 1.17 1.34 1.46When computed or standard value used 0.56 0.71 0.87 1.21 1.38 1.5010% increase 0.57 0.73 0.89 1.25 1.42 1.5420% increase 0.59 0.75 0.92 1.28 1.46 1.5950% increase 0.64 0.81 0.99 1.39 1.50 1.72
78
0.56 0.71 0.87 1.21 1.38 1.50
Probability of a Midair Collision
50% decrease 0.55 0.70 0.86 1.14 1.30 1.4120% decrease 0.56 0.71 0.87 1.17 1.34 1.4610% decrease 0.56 0.71 0.87 1.20 1.37 1.49
When computed or standard value used 0.56 0.71 0.87 1.21 1.38 1.5010% increase 0.56 0.71 0.87 1.22 1.39 1.51
20% increase 0.56 0.71 0.87 1.25 1.42 1.54
50% increase 0.56 0.71 0.87 1.28 1.46 1.59
Cost of a Midair Collision
50% decrease 0.55 0.70 0.86 1.14 1.30 1.4120% decrease 0.56 0.71 0.87 1.17 1.34 1.4610% decrease 0.56 0.71 0.87 1.20 1.37 1.49When computed or standard value used 0.56 0.71 0.87 1.21 1.38 1.5010% increase 0.56 0.71 0.87 1.22 1.39 1.5120% increase 0.56 0.71 0.87 1.25 1.42 1.5450% increase 0.56 0.71 0.87 1.28 1.46 1.59
Cost of a Terrain Collision
50% decrease 0.55 0.69 0.85 1.15 1.31 1.4320% decrease 0.55 0.70 0.86 1.19 1.35 1.4710% decrease 0.56 0.71 0.87 1.20 1.37 1.49When computed or standard value used 0.56 0.71 0.87 1.21 1.38 1.5010% increase 0.56 0.71 0.87 1.22 1.39 1.5120% increase 0.57 0.72 0.88 1.23 1.41 1.5350% increase 0.57 0.73 0.89 1.27 1.45 1.57
Value of a Statistical Life
50% decrease 0.55 0.70 0.86 1.15 1.31 1.4320% decrease 0.56 0.71 0.87 1.19 1.35 1.4710% decrease 0.56 0.71 0.87 1.20 1.37 1.49When computed or standard value used 0.56 0.71 0.87 1.21 1.38 1.5010% increase 0.56 0.71 0.87 1.22 1.39 1.5120% increase 0.56 0.71 0.87 1.23 1.41 1.5350% increase 0.57 0.72 0.88 1.27 1.45 1.57
79
AP2'ENDIX A - PREVIOUS ASR INVESTMENT CRITERIA
The previous investment criteria for ASR, as outlined in Airway PlanningStandard Number One (Reference 1) are reproduced below. Except for thecriteria for TRACAB establishment, TRACON establishment and TRACAB toTRACON ccnversion, these criteria have been superceded by the revisedcriteria outlined in Section II. The TRACAB establishment, TRACONestablishment and TRACAB to TRACON conversion criteria remain unchanged.
"AIRPORT SURVEILLANCE RADAR WITH AIR TRAFFIC CONTROL RADAR BEACON SYSTEMAND BRIGHT DISPLAY SCOPE (AS R/ATCRS/BDS)
a. Establishment. An FAA approach control tower which records a minimumof 45,000 annual itinerant operations and 4,000 certificated routeair carrier operations and records 18,000 instrument operations atthe primary and secondary airports is a candidate for ASR/ATCRBS/BDGif it satisfies any combination of the three parameters which equalsor exceeds a linear sliding scale defined by the following limits:
(1) 45,000 annual itinerant operations, of which 10,000 arecertificated route air carrier operations, and 18,000 instrumentoperations at the primary and secondary airportsv or
(2) 105,000 annual itinerant operations, of which 4,000 arecertificated route air carrier operations, and 27,000 instrumentoperations at the primary and secondary airports.
(3) Numbers of operations required for candidacy... may bedetermined either by interpolating the sliding scale or bysatisfying both of the following equations: ""
N > 145,000 - 10AC
I 33,000 - 1.5AC
Where N, AC, and I are the annual numbers of itinerant, aircarrier, and primary plus secondary instrument operations,respectively.
b. Discontinuance. An ASR/ATCRBS/BDS at an FAA radar approach controlfacility is a candidate for decommissioning if the facility recordsless than 75 percent of the levels specified... above for at leastone parameter. In lieu of deriving these levels, discontinuancecandidates must satisfy at least one of the following five equations'
AC < 3,000
N < (108,750 - 10AC) for 3,000 < AC < 7,500
N < 33,750 for AC < 7,500
I < (24,750 - 1.5AC) for 3,000 < AC < 7,500
S< 13,500 for AC > 7,500
go(
c. Benefit/Cost Sjreening. ASR/ATCRBS/BDS candidates identified...above will be screened using the benefit versus cost techniquedescribed in Report Number ASP-75-2. FAA Regional Offices shallsubmit data required for screening purposes as specified in theannual Call for Estimates...
d. Improvements. Existing FAA approach control facilities equipped withASR/ATCRBS/BDS frequently require improvements. Such improvementsare normally made when there exists a reasonable relationship betweenthe operational benefits to be realized and the costs involved inaccordance with the following provisions:
(1) An FMA radar approach control facility recording 30,000 or moreanuiual instrument operations qualifies for those improvementsthat satisfy an operational requirement and/or facilitate theprovision of terminal area radar service. This activity levelnormally assures a cost per operation that is co•inensurate withthe benefit derived from the imrovement.
(2) An FAA radar approach control facility recording between 20,000and 29,000 annual instrument operations may be a candidate forimprovements. It qualifies for those improvements that satisfyan operational requirement and/or facilitate the provision ofterminal area radar service provided the additional cost doesnot result in a cost per operation that exceeds the benefitderived from the improvement.
(3) An FAA radar approach control facility recording less than20,000 annual instrument operations is not a candidate forimprovements. At that activity level, the additional cost peroperation resulting from the improvement is not commensuratewith the benefit derived. Any improvement to terminal radarfacilities in this category will be limited to the correction ofa critical situation and shall be justified by an individualstaff study.
NOTE: Improvements to FAA staffed RAPQON/RATCCs... may beconsidered on an individual basis but the above criteria for FAAcivil facilities shall remain a major determinant in consideringthem for improvement.
e. Remoted Radar Bright Display Scope. An FAA VFR control tower at anairport, which is a satellite of the primary airport of an FAA radarapproach control facility, is a candidate for a remote radar brightdisplay scope in the tower cab when:
(1) At least 35,000 annual itinerant operations are recorded; and
(2) The airport is located within 20 miles and within microwave linkrange of an existing surveillance radar system.
(3) Operationally adequate low altitude radar coverage is assured atthe satellite airport.
81
f. Terminal RadaL. Approach Control in Tower Cab.
(1) Establishment. An initial ASR/ATCRBS/BDS installation shall bea TRACAB facility consisting of appropriate displays placed inthe tower cab.
(a) If the official agency forecasts indicate an ASR/ATCRBS/BDScandidate location will exceed 125,000 annual itinerantoperations or 60,000 annual instrument operations within 2years of the year of budget submission for the facility,the Initial installation should be planned as a TRACONrather than a TRACAB. Instrument operations at secondaryairports may be Included in this forecast provided radarcoverage at these locations is expected to exist at orbelow initial approach altitude.
(b) If an ASR/ATCRBS/BDS candidate location cannot physicallyaccommodate radar approach control in the tower cab, thenindividual justification shall be required to go directlyto a TRACON facility.
(c) When the complexity of the facility operation warrants,individual justification and consideration shall be givento locating the ASR/ATCRBS/BDS in a TRACON rather than aTRACAB.
(2) Discontinuance. A TRACAB will be discontinued when thaASR/ATCRBS/BDS is decommissioned or when the radar approachcontrol function is transferred to a TRACON.
(3) Conversion to TRACON. A TRACAB location is a TRACON candidatewhen the facility has at leapt 125,000 annual itinerantoperations or 60,000 annual instrument operations. Instrumentoperations at secondary airports that receive radar service ator below initial approach altitude may be included in thiscount. Also, when the complexity of the facility operationswarrants, individual justification and consideration should begiven to relocating from a TRACAB to a TRACON."
82
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APPENDIX E-3
NORMATIVE DISTRIBUTION OF AIR TAXI, GENERAL AVIATION AND MILITARY AIRCRAFTBY AIRCRAFT TYPE USED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF MIDAIR COLLISION AVOIDANCE BENEFITS
Estimate ofTotal Hours PercentFlown-1978 Di-tribution
Air Taxi (Including Air Commuter)l/
Jet 132,449 3.0Turboprop 550,28a 12.5Multi-engine piston 1,683,862 38.2Single-engine piston 1,210,388 27.5Rotorcraft 828,107 18.8
4,405,094 100.0
General Aviation (Excluding Air Taxi)l/Jet 1,061,797 3.1Turboprop 1,055,995 3.0Multi-engine piston 4,502,028 13.0Single-engine piston 26,646,920 76.9Rotorcraft 1,399,544 4.0
34,666,284 100.0
Mil itary2_/
Jet 2,843,000 58.8Turboprop 595,000 12.3Piston 328,000 6.8Rotorcraft 1,071,000 22.1
4,837,000 100.0
Y/Source: Reference 19YSource: Reforence 29
914
APPENDIX F - PROGRAM LOGIC OF ASR ESTABLISHnMENT
AND DISCONTINUANCE CRITERIA
The ASR establishment and discontinuance criteria described in this report will beintegrated as a FORTRAN subroutine into the Terminal Area Forecast Data System.
This appendix provides a centralized algebraic description of the logic used tocompute the Phase I and It benefit/cost ratios (in Section VI), a description andsource of variables and constants used in the subroutine, and dppropriate default
values.
A. Phase I Ratio
ACEBE - ACPRIM1 /(3,40t - (.0013 x PRIM1 ))*ATEBE - ATPRIM1 /(26,000 - (.0096 x PRIMI))*GAEBE - GAPRIM1/(53,300 - (.0196 x PRIM1 ))*MLEBE - MLPRIMI/(8,60O - (.0032 x PRIM1 ))*ACSBE - ACITN1/107,400ATSBE - ATITN 1 /539,600GASBE - (GAITN 1 + GALCLI)/847,200MLSBE - (MLITN 1 + MLLCL 1 )/376,200
*If the denominator for any user class results in a value equal to or less thanzerop disregard all denominators and use all of the following instead. For theair carrier user class: 9,300 - (.0034 x PRIM); for the air taxi user class:71,200 - (.0262 x PRIM); for the general aviation user class: 146,000 - (.0538x PRIM); and for the military user class: 23,400 - (.0086 x PRIM).
PHASE I - ACEBE + ATEBE + GAEBE + MLEBE + ACSBE + ATSBE + GASBE + MLSBE
If PHASEI > 1.0, then location satisfies Phase I establishment criteria.
If PHASEI <.35, then location satisfies Phase I discontinuance criteria.
In cases where qualifying radar service is provided by the primary airport tosecondary airports, the Phase I ratio value shall bs the sum of the airportratios of the airports comprising the radar service area.
B. Phase It Benefit/Cost Ratio
1. Compute Life-Cycle Benefits
15DISBEN - E (ANNBENy x i/(l+d)Y-0. 5 )
y- 1
where DISBEN is the life-cycle benefits discounted over 15 years, y' iseach of 15 years of an ASR's estimated economic life, 'ANNBEN' is the
nondiscounted sum in year 'y' of benefits of IFR delay reduction, midair
collision avoidance and terrain collision avoidance, and 'd' is theOMB-prescribed discount tate of ten percent. In cases where qualifyingradar service is provided by the primary airport to secondary airports,
the Phase II benefit/cost ratio shall be the sum of the airport ratios ofthe airports comprising the radar service area.
a. IFR Delay Reduction Benefits
(1) Compute delay costs (aircraft variable operating costs and valueof passengers'/occupante' time) of aircraft mix during an busyIFR hour:
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REFERENCES
1. Airway Planning Standard Number One, Terminal Air Navigation
Facilitihs and Air Traffic Control Services, FAA Order 7031.2B.
2. Establishment Criteiia for Airport Surveillance Radar
(ASR/ATCRBS/BDS), Report Number FAA-ASP-75-2, December 1975.
3. Air Traffic Staffing Standards System, FAA Order 1380.33B,
March 10, 1980.
4. Cost Comparison Handbook, Supplement No. 1 to OMB Circular No. A-76,
March 1979.
5. Capital Stock Measures for Transportation, Volume I, DOT,December 1974.
6. A Concept for New Establisivnent Criteria for Airport SurveillanceRadar, Report Number NBSIR-74-593, prepared for the FAA by theNational Bureau of Standards, October 1974.
7. Ceiling-Visibility Climatological Study and Systems EnhancementFactors, prepared for the FAA by the National Oceanic and AtmosphericAdministration, June 1975.
8. FAA Air Traffic Activity - Calendar Year 1973, FAA, February 1974.
9. Economic Values for Evaluation of Federal Aviation AdministrationInvestment and Regulatory Programs, Report Number FAA-APO-81-3,September 1981.
10. Handbook of Air Traffic Projections: ODNUS 1962-1980, FAA, SystemsResearch and Development Service, April 1964.
11. Civil Aviation Midair Collisions Analysis - January 1964-December1971, Report FAA-EM-73-8, MITRE Corporation, May 1973.
12. Civil Aviation Midair Collisions Analysis - 1972 Added to the 1964-71Results, Addendum 1 to Report FAA-EM-73-8, MITRE Corporation,December 1974.
0. 13. The Safety Impact of Flight Environment Factors, Airports and FAAFacility Factors, QUESTEK Corporation (Walton Graham, et al.), TaskOrder IV to FA:79-WAI-078.
14. ARTS II Enhancements Costs and Benefits, Report Number FAA-AVP-76-16,September 1976.
15. Official Airline Guide, published by Reuben H. Donnelley Corporation.
16. Airport Activity Statistics of Certificated Route Air Carriers,prepared jointly by the FAA and CAB.
17. Aircraft Operating Cost and Performance Report, CAB, July 1980.
104
18. Commuter Air Carriers as of September 1975, FAA, Office of ManagementSystems, September 30, 1975.
19. 1978 General Aviation Activity and Avionics Survey, Report NumberFAA-MS-80-5, FAA, Office of Management Systems, March 1980.
20. General Aviation Pilot and Aircraft Activity Survey, Report NumberFAA-MS-79-7, FAA, Office of Management Systems, December 1979.
21. Cost/Benefit Analysis of Tower Cab Radar Approach Control, FAA,April 1970.
22. Evaluation of High Activity Level Tower Cab, FAA-RD-2-111, FAA,
October 1972.
23. Intermediate Activity Level Tower Cab Design Evaluation,FAA-RD-71-77, FAA, November 1971.
" 24. Evaluation of Hexagonal VFR ATC Tower Cab for Intermediate Activity
Level Airports, FAA, Systems Research and Development Service, April1971.
25. Terminal Area Forecasts, FY 1982-FY 1995.
25. ATS Fact Book, FAA Air Traffic Service, September 30, 1981.
27. Annual Review of Aircraft Accident Data, U.S. Air Carrier Operations,National Transportation Safety Board, 1966-1979.
28. Annual Review of Aircraft Accident Data, U.S. General Aviation,National Transportation Safety Board, 1969-1978.
29. SCI (Systems Control, Inc.) data file, APO-130.
This Document
Reproduced FromBest Available Copy
105