introductory presentation for the magic climate resilience plan's kick-off forum
TRANSCRIPT
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Local Planning for Climate Resilence
Minuteman Area Subregion
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Project Overview
6
• How we got here (Climate Changes)
• What’s Happening (Impacts)
• What to do (Resiliency)
Climate Change Resiliency
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7
• How we got here (Climate Changes)
• What’s Happening (Impacts)
• What to do (Resiliency)
How Did We Get Here?
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What's Happening? (Impacts)
8
Parameter Current Conditions(1961-1990)
Predicted Rangeby 2050
Predicted Rangeby 2100
Annual temperature (°F) 46 50 to 51 51 to 56Winter temperature (°F) 23 25 to 28 27 to 33Summer temperature (°F) 68 72 to 73 72 to 78Annual sea surface temp. (°F) 53 56 61Annual precipitation (in.) 41 5% to 8% 7% to 14%Winter precipitation (in.) 8 6% to 16% 12% to 30%Summer precipitation (in) 11 -1% to -3% -1% to 0%
Streamflow (spring peak: days following Jan. 1) 85 77 to 80 72 to 74
Droughts lasting 1-3 months(#/30 yrs) 13 18 to 20 16 to 23
Sea-level rise -- 1 to 1.5 feet 2 to 6 feet
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Heat/Health
Heat-related morbidity &
mortalityVector-borne
diseases (Lyme, EEE, West Nile)
Pollen, Ozone
Asthma
Frequency of waterborne diseases
(crypto, E coli, giardiasis)
Algal blooms (Red tide, cyanobacteria)
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10Credit:
Natural Resources: Species/Habitat Shifts
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11Credit:
Water Cycle Impacts
Source: Hans Günter Brauch
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Groundwater Depletion
In water stressed regions, variability of precipitation patterns is likely to further reduce groundwater recharge ability. Water availability is likely to be further exacerbated by poor management, elevated water tables, overuse from increasing populations, and an increase in water demand primarily from increased agricultural production (IPCC 2007).
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Groundwater Withdrawal
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14Credit:
More Frequent & Intense Storms
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Impacts: “100-yr” Frequency Storm
15Credit: Adapted from S. Horsley: Climate Change Impacts in the Coastal Zone
Springfield Worcester Boston
TP40 Design Storm (1930-1960)
6.5 in. 6.5 in. 6.6 in.
Cornell Design Storm(1936 - 2008)
8.8 in. 8.8 in. 8.8 in.
Rainfall duration = the time of concentration or runoff time of travel from the “hydraulically most distant point” in the watershed to an outfall.
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Precipitation Projections
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Oyster River Culvert Analysis Project
IPCC: “Historical discharge records indicate it is likely that for each 1°C rise in temperature, global runoff will increase by 4%. Applying this projection to changes in evapotranspiration and precipitation leads to the conclusion that global runoff is likely to increase 7.8% globally by the end of the century (Oki and Kanae 2006).”
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Precipitation Projections
17
Oyster River Culvert Analysis Project
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Precipitation Projections
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MassDOT Pilot: Charles, Mystic, Neponset Watersheds
Woods Hole Group, et. al, June 2015
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Intensity of Storms
19Credit: MA DOT
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20
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Source: Penney, 2008
ADAPTATION = increasing resiliency and
reducing vulnerability of our natural and built
systems to best prepare for changing conditions
What Should We Do?
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Master Planning
Design Review & Guidelines
Regulations / Zoning
Transfer of Development Rights
Easements
Interdepartmental Coordination
Repurposing
Source: Prudent Baby
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Mitigation: Create Walking/Biking Opportunities
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Mitigation: Transit-Oriented Development
Development that includes a mixture of housing, office, retail, and other amenities integrated into a walkable neighborhood and located within a half-mile of quality public transportation. - Reconnecting America
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Transfer of Development Rights
Raynham, MAFalmouth, MA
Receiving Area
Sending Area
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TDR: Resource Protection
Source: Huron River Watershed Council, Michigan
Receiving area land owners gain density, developers gain an administrative advantage!
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Natural Resource Protection Zoning
Traditional Natural Resource Protective
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Rolling Easements
Source: Georgetown Law; Harrison Inst. For Public Law
Allows development to occur recognizing that land
will be abandoned when sea/floodwaters rise
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Shoreline Protection Rules/Regs.Establishes minimum requirements that all towns must abide by in developing their local ordinances:• E.g. Set-back 250 feet from shoreline protected under law – inland and coastal
aquatic resources• Creation of Resource Protection Districts with standards for development within
Relocated Structure Old Location
Raised (min 3 ft.)
Revegetated Area100 ft
High Water Mark(Adapted from ME Shoreline Zoning Handbook)
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Wetland Migration
Source: Scott Horsley, Horsley Witten Group
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Local Floodplain Zoning/Regs.
Source: Pierce County, 2007, GeoEngineers, 2005; USDA, 2006
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Elevation of the lowest floor + XX ft (e.g. 3 ft) above the Base Flood Elevation
Walls that are “substantially impermeable to the passage of water” (U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Flood Proofing Regulations).
Redevelopment/Building Guidelines
Source: LA Storm Smart Coasts
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Design Guidelines
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Integrated Water Management Aquatic Restoration Green Infrastructure Water Conservation/Reuse
Source: Sustainable Water Management Wiki
Source: Australian Water Association.
Source: City of Portland, Environmental Services
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Aquatic Habitat Restoration
MA Division of Ecological Restoration
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Streamflow Restoration/Culvert Replacement
MA Division of Ecological Restoration
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Green Infrastructure = Flood Buffer
Source: Green Infrastructure Center
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Green Infrastructure: Water Reclaim/Reuse
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Green Infrastructure = Innovative/Alternative Wastewater
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Green Infrastructure = Stormwater Management
Grey GreenGrading/Roads $569,698 $426,575
Storm Drains $225,721 $132,558
SWM Pond/Fees $260,858 $ 10,530
Bioretention/Micro — $175,000
Total $1,086,277 $744,663Unit Cost $14,679 $9,193Lot Yield 74 81
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Local Codes & Regulations Do They Discourage or Promote Green Infrastructure / Low Impact Development? Do they Agree/Conflict with Each Other?
Wetland RegulationsStormwater RegulationsZoning - Site Plan ReviewSubdivision Rules and Regulations
MAPC’s Code Checklist:http://www.mapc.org/sites/default/files/
LID_Local_Codes_Checklist.pdf