introduction to the georgia student growth model understanding and using sgps to improve student...
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Introduction to the Georgia Student Growth ModelUnderstanding and Using SGPs to
Improve Student Performance
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Why focus on student growth?
• A growth model will allow educators to move beyond status-based questions to ask critical growth-related questions.– Status
• What percentage of students met the state standard?• Did more students meet the state standard this year compared to last year?
– Growth• Did this student grow more or less than academically-similar students?• Are students growing as much in math as in reading?• Are students on track to reach or exceed proficiency?
• The GSGM will provide student-level diagnostic information, improve teaching and learning, enhance accountability (CCRPI), and serve as one of multiple indicators of educator effectiveness (TKES and LKES).
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Growth Under NCLB
• How many students have made it over the proficiency bar (% Meets/Exceeds)?
• Inferences about growth are made longitudinally across different cohorts of students
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School 2008 2009 2010 2011
Acme ES 80 85 91 96
Clubhouse ES 75 79 86 90
Fraggle ES 73 75 74 71No growth?
Fast growth, different starting points
What do we know about student-level growth?
• All information about student test performance has been collapsed into 3 criterion-referenced levels
• We cannot compare scale scores as the scales are not vertically scaled
• Leaves many important questions about progress unanswered
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Grade 4 5 6 7 8Marvin M. Meets Meets DNM DNM DNMOlive O. Meets Meets Meets Meets MeetsDonald D. Meets Meets Meets Exceeds Exceeds
Understanding Percentiles
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A distribution, for example, of height, weight, or academic growth
50% 50%
50th percentile
The 50th percentile is the value below which 50% of the distribution lies.
Student Change in Status
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16% 50%
If a student goes from scoring better than 16% of all students in grade 4 to scoring better than 50% of students in grade 5, would this be evidence that growth had occurred?
What we miss if we focus on the proficiency bar…
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16% 50%
If the red line marks the cut point for “Meets,” this is a student who was below “Meets” each year. But there is clear evidence that great progress has been made.
What are Student Growth Percentiles?
• A student growth percentile (SGP) describes a student’s growth relative to other students statewide with similar prior achievement – Calculations based solely on achievement
• SGPs not only show how individual students are progressing, but they also can be aggregated to show how groups of students, schools, districts, and the state are progressing
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SGPs for Individual Students• Each student obtains an SGP, which indicates how much he or
she grew relative to his or her academic peers– Academic peers are other students statewide with a similar score
history– Priors are the historical assessment scores used to model growth
• Growth percentiles range from 1 to 99– Lower percentiles indicate lower academic growth and higher
percentiles indicate higher academic growth
• Students also receive growth projections and growth targets, which describe the amount of growth needed to reach or exceed proficiency in subsequent years
• All students, regardless of their achievement level, have the ability to demonstrate all levels of growth
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2011 SGP = 12010 4th Grade Math Scale Score = 9902011 5th Grade Math Scale Score = 850
2011 SGP = 992010 4th Grade Math Scale Score = 9902011 5th Grade Math Scale Score = 990
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Understanding Academic Peers
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Priors• Priors are the historical assessment scores being
used to model growth• The immediate consecutive prior is required to
produce growth percentiles– For example, an 8th-grade student must have a 7th-grade
CRCT score in order to receive a growth percentile
• Two years of priors will be used (one year will be used when two years are not available)– For example, growth percentiles for an 8th-grade student
would have his or her 7th- and 6th-grade CRCT scores as priors
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EOCT Course Progressions
• For EOCTs, both prior achievement and course progressions (including year taken) must be considered.
• While most EOCT students will receive SGPs, those participating in uncommon sequences (small N) will not receive SGPs
• Most common sequences:– ELA: 8th grade CRCT reading/ELA → 9th Grade Lit → American Lit– Math: 7th or 8th grade CRCT math → Coordinate Algebra/Math I/GPS
Algebra → Analytic Geometry/Math II/GPS Geometry– Science: 7th or 8th grade CRCT science → Physical Science/Biology →
Biology/Physical Science– Social Studies: US History → Economics
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Aggregating SGPs• There are multiple ways of aggregating SGPs (such as
for a classroom, school, or district)– Median – the median growth percentile for all students– Growth distribution – divide the growth percentile range
(1-99) into intervals and report the percentage of students demonstrating growth in each interval
– Percentage meeting a goal – the percentage of students demonstrating at or above a specified level of growth
• For example, the percentage of students demonstrating typical or high growth (SGP >= 35)
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Interpreting SGPs
• Olive’s reading growth percentile is 54– Olive grew at a rate greater than 54% of academically-
similar students in reading
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Lower growth Typical growth Higher growth
Interpreting SGPs• The median reading growth percentile for Olive’s school is
65– The typical student in Olive’s school grew at a rate greater than
65% of academically-similar students– Olive grew at a lower rate in reading compared to the other
students in her school on “average”
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Lower growth Typical growth Higher growth
Growth Over Time• Because SGPs are normative, meaning growth percentiles
describe a student’s growth relative to other students in the state in a given year, how do we compare results over time?– A baseline is used as a reference point so change in overall
growth can be observed from year to year– Without using a baseline, the median SGP for the state would be
50 every year – absolute changes in a school’s growth could not be observed since the state as a whole is moving too
– The baseline utilizes multiple years of data in order to allow for a more stable comparison
– As of 2013, all CRCTs and all EOCTs except mathematics (Math I, Math II, GPS Algebra, GPS Geometry, Coordinate Algebra) are baseline-referenced.
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Growth Over Time
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State MedianThis year = 50Next year = 50Two years = 50etc.
Without setting a baseline…
…the state median will always be 50 with half of students below 50 and half above 50
Growth Over Time
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This year = 50
With setting a baseline…State Median
Baseline yearNext year = 55
Two years = 60
…the state median can change from year to year, representing statewide change in growth over time
Growth to Proficiency• How do we know if a student’s growth is enough to be
on track to reach or exceed proficiency?– SGPs analyze historical student assessment data to model how
students perform on and grow in between assessments– This information is used to create growth projections and
growth targets for each student– The growth projection tells us where on the assessment scale a
student may score next year for all levels of possible growth (1st-99th percentile)
– The growth target tells us, based on where students are now, how much they need to grow to reach or exceed proficiency in the future
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Growth Projections and Targets
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Exceeds
Meets
Does Not Meet
This Year Future
High
Typical
Low
“Meets” Target
“Exceeds” Target
Transitioning To New Assessments
• What happens when we change assessments?– Until we have enough years of implementation,
we will produce cohort-referenced SGPs and will not have targets or projections.
• Will SGPs go down if the standards are higher and students perform poorly on the new assessment?– No because…
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Transitioning to New Assessments
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200
600
Elmerand his academic peers
7th Grade Math
8th Grade Math
810 825
450
400
Math I
Elmer
Scale Score SGP
430 59
8th Grade
Transitioning to New Assessments
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200
600
Elmerand his academic peers
7th Grade Math
8th Grade Math
810 825
450
400
Coordinate Algebra
Elmer
Scale Score SGP
390 59
8th Grade
How can we analyze SGPs?
• Example (real data, fake names)– Acme Middle School
• Only middle school in district• Has 3 6th-grade mathematics teachers
– Mr. W.E. Coyote• Taught 6th grade mathematics in 2012• Taught 116 students in 5 classes
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How did Mr. Coyote’s students do on the 6th grade mathematics CRCT?
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12 scored Does Not
Meet
85 scored Meets
19 scored Exceeds
90% of students (104 of 116) met the state standard
But did these students grow?
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59 demonstrated low growth
32 demonstrated typical growth
25 demonstrated high growth
Not really – 50% demonstrated low growth
Was there a difference across Mr. Coyote’s classes?
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Sections C and E have some students demonstrating high growth
But Sections B and D have more students demonstrating low growth
Section E is particularly interesting – students either grew very little or a lot
Was there a difference across student performance levels?
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Why did students who
started the year below
standards not grow much
with this teacher?
Why did these
students grow more than other
students with the same
prior performance
level?
What about the other 6th grade math teachers in the school?
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Mr. Coyote – high proficiency (90%), low growth (MGP = 34)
Lower proficiency (70%), better growth (MGP = 43.5)
Lower proficiency (77%), lower growth (MGP = 20)
What about other schools/districts?
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Even though Acme MS has a relatively high proficiency rate, other schools/districts are showing much more growth among 6th graders in math (and also have high proficiency rates).6th
Gra
de P
rofic
ienc
y
6th Grade Growth
What if we consider where our students started?
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When we look at where students started, Acme MS had much lower growth than most other schools/districts who started in the same place.5th
Gra
de P
rofic
ienc
y
6th Grade Growth
What about the other grades in our school?
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68
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Grade Prior % Proficient
Current % Proficient
MGP
6 97% 83% 24.5
7 76% 95% 58
8 93% 88% 32.5
What is happening in
grade 6 that is resulting in lower
growth than in grades 7 and 8?
Resources
• GSGM Visualization Tool– Accessible in SLDS– Information restricted based on role
• GaDOE Website– http://www.gadoe.org/Curriculum-Instruction-and-Assessment/Assess
ment/Pages/Georgia-Student-Growth-Model.aspx
• New for 2013– Student growth reports for parents– Public visualization tool (school- and district-level results
only)
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Questions?
• For questions regarding the Georgia Student Growth Model, please contact:
Melissa FincherAssociate Superintendent of Assessment and [email protected] or (404) 651-9405
Allison TimberlakeProgram Manager, Growth [email protected] or (404) 463-6666
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