international workshop to discuss the science of asset management, 9 th december 2011 long term...

International workshop to discuss the science of asset management, 9 th December 2011

Long term investment planning Developing practical strategic investment planning

tools

Paul Sayers (Sayers and Partners)

Ian Meadowcroft and Adam Baylis (Environment Agency)

Jaap Flikweert (Haskoning)

Petra Neve and Rob Deakin (Halcrow)

A CH2M HILL company


Outline Looking beyond the UK Floods sector Why a long term investment strategy Providing evidence to support policy

Present day national scale risks Exploring future investment priorities

Next generation supporting tools and data


Looking beyond the UK floods sector Increasing interest in large scale, long term investment

planning tools. By countries By sector


For example, different countries…..

Uni of South Carolina - Total Place Vulnerability Index Model Uni of Dortmund - Integrated Risk Assessment of Multi

Hazards Model Dutch Ministry of Public Works - Planning Kit Decision Support

System (Water Manager) IHE-UNESCO – Gaming Simulation Tools for River and

Floodplain Management California – FloodSAFE And many others…


And sectors…..

Water companies - Tools for Asset Management Plans Insurance sectors – e.g. Munich Re Model - ‘probability of

maximum losses’ (PML). Floods – Gaming simulation, Flood Ranger (through Foresight)


A range of spatial and temporal scales of interest

Why a long term investment strategy?

Perform under load or on demand?

Improve or deteriorate with/without

action?

How will an asset…

Perform now and in the

future?Which assets

contribute most to risk?

How will the system...

Hot spots?Investment

need?How might

these change ?

What are the national…


..and forms part of the cycle of asset management…


National Assessment of Flood Risk (NaFRA)

Present day flood risks

Based on RASP methods (Hall et al, 2002, Sayers et al, 2005, Gouldby et al 2008)

Takes into account: Location, type and

condition of defences Overtopping and breach

Results in Depth probability

relationship Various risk metrics (incl.

EAD)


2.4m Properties at risk of river and sea flooding in England Excludes surface water risk, and the risk to static caravans

Some results….


How exposed to flood is our essential transport and utilities infrastructure ?

Some results….


Who benefits from flood defence assets?

Some results….


Flood and coastal risk expenditure: £800m in 2010/11

But who spends what?

Some results….


But what for the future? How will the risks and investment needs change? Climate change

• Impacts of climate change using data from the UK climate projections, UKCP09.

• We expect sea levels to rise – increasing overtopping and the chance of breach significantly

• The frequency and severity of rainstorms will increase - increasing in river flows


But what for the future? How will the risks and investment needs change? Changing performance of the assets

• If we do nothing - Deterioration in the absence or a reduced maintenance

• If we do something - Improvement in condition or raising of crest level through investment


The analysis framework FaCET - Flood and Coastal Erosion Tool Analysis (upto 2011)

Risk forecast tool

Expenditure forecast tool

Policy analysis tool

Outputs

Current asset information

NFCDDMEICANCERM

- LTIS feasibility study

- Unit cost database- Asset deterioration

database- UKCP09

- NaFRA’08 - NCERM- UKCP09

LTIS analysis tool

- Investment profile - Residual risk parameters - Outcome measures

25 year min horizon

Dataset

Set outs 8 national policy options (static in time) and the rules for implementing them as asset interventions



Risk forecast tool



Outputs


NFCDDMEICANCERM



database- UKCP09


LTIS analysis tool


25 year min horizon

Dataset

Includes a whole life analysis of costs associated with given policies options



Risk forecast tool



Outputs


NFCDDMEICANCERM



database- UKCP09


LTIS analysis tool


25 year min horizon

Dataset

Based NaFRA/RASP includes a NPV analysis of changes in risk based likely changes associated with a give policy option (deterioration, raising, climate change)


Future investment needs

Given• Climate change data from the UKCP09.

h Sea levels are expected to riseh Rivers are set to increase

h Without investmenth Increased risks – about 500,000 additional properties

would be at ‘Significant’ risk of flooding by 2035h 50% of this increase attributable to climate changeh 50% to asset deterioration


Future investment needs

So how much should be spent nationally?

Cumulative spend on assets: 2011 to 2035

Developed range of scenarios

Increasing returns up to Scenario 4

Scenario 5 decreased risks but at much higher cost


What next….

LTIS has made a significant step forward A national scale investment strategy tool

But… Decision makers now what to: Know more both the spatial and temporal variation in

risks Have greater flexibility to explore policy options that

change over time Include a more comprehensive range of asset

intervention activities (pumps, channel maintenance etc) Make robust choices, minimising regret Understand the potential for wide spread flooding Incorporate all sources of flooding


Scoping the next generation of FaCET tools

A route map for the development of the FACET tools is currently being set out: Version 1 (2011/12)

updates based on latest climate and cost information Version 2 - Step change (application in 2013)

Static policy options replaced with Policy Sequences Estimate of the potential third party funding contribution

Spatially coherent events represented.


Scoping the next generation of FaCET tools

Version 3 – Step change (2014/15) Recast as an “on the fly” process, where alternatives to

the pre-set policy sequences can be provided by the user and analysed directly.

Provision of national scale automated optimization techniques

Version 4 - Step change (beyond 2014/15) A move to a continuous simulation type approach

enabling the impact of specific interventions to be more reliably represented


Conclusions Providing quantified national scale investment strategies

has had a significant impact Supporting better targeting of resources Promoting the need for better data Underlying the need for better decisions, and making

robust choices A progressive programme of development is currently

being scoped


Supporting funders

24

Joint programme – Modelling and Risk TAGFunding and investment team

ContactPaul Sayers [email protected] Meadowcroft [email protected]

mailto:[email protected]

international workshop to discuss the science of asset management, 9 th december 2011 long term...

Documents

science of asset management

international workshop

national slide

sector slide

ead slide

foresight slide

data slide

risk of river