Internal Migration Flows and Internal Migration Flows and Residential Segregation in Residential Segregation in

Northern Ireland: Relations, Northern Ireland: Relations, Motivations and Geographical Motivations and Geographical

VariationsVariations

Gemma CatneyGemma CatneyPhD Research StudentPhD Research Student

Centre for Spatial Territorial Analysis and Centre for Spatial Territorial Analysis and Research (C-STAR)Research (C-STAR)

School of Geography, Archaeology and School of Geography, Archaeology and Palaeoecology (GAP)Palaeoecology (GAP)

Queen’s University, BelfastQueen’s University, Belfast

3rd International Population Geographies Conference, Liverpool 20063rd International Population Geographies Conference, Liverpool 2006

Residential Segregation in Northern Residential Segregation in Northern IrelandIreland

Religious residential segregation in Religious residential segregation in NI – media and academic research NI – media and academic research

New academic research pointing New academic research pointing towards residential segregation as towards residential segregation as either decreasing or staying the either decreasing or staying the samesame

However, large geographic However, large geographic variations, with some increases in variations, with some increases in segregation in particular areas, and segregation in particular areas, and persistence in otherspersistence in others

But why? But why?

Internal migration in Northern Internal migration in Northern IrelandIreland

In-situ growth vs. migrationIn-situ growth vs. migration Simpson (2004), in Simpson (2004), in Urban StudiesUrban Studies Migration – reinforcement, erosion, Migration – reinforcement, erosion,

creation of residential segregation?creation of residential segregation? How far is community background How far is community background

(area composition, etc.) important in (area composition, etc.) important in migration decision-making?migration decision-making?

Under-explored and little understoodUnder-explored and little understood

Presentation outlinePresentation outline

MethodologyMethodology Quantitative research Quantitative research

• Migration rates Migration rates • GWRGWR

Qualitative researchQualitative research• Area selectionArea selection• Interviews and focus groupsInterviews and focus groups• Cognitive mappingCognitive mapping• 2 case study areas2 case study areas

Summary and conclusionsSummary and conclusions

MethodologyMethodologyQUANTITATIVE

Migration rates

Geographically weighted regression (GWR)

SI modelling

DATA SOURCES

Census of pop. of NI (2001)

Census grid square data (1971-2001)

Residents (movers and non-movers)

Key informants (community reps, property developers, etc.)

Estate agents

QUALITATIVE

Semi-structured interviews

Focus groups

Cognitive Mapping

Participant observation

Migration ratesMigration rates

Inflow rate (per 1000 pop.) Outflow rate (per 1000 pop.)

Migration by community Migration by community backgroundbackground

Catholic inflow over total inflow Catholic outflow over total outflow

Geographically weighted Geographically weighted regression (GWR)regression (GWR)

Catholic residential composition against Catholic inflow, as proportion of total inflow (12km

bandwidth)

SummarySummary

Community background potentially Community background potentially very significantvery significant

Suggests reinforcement of residential Suggests reinforcement of residential segregation due to migration, in segregation due to migration, in some placessome places

But, a complex picture…But, a complex picture…

Qualitative researchQualitative research

• Semi-structured interviews with: Semi-structured interviews with: • residents of case study areas (movers and non-residents of case study areas (movers and non-

movers)movers)• key informants – property developers, key informants – property developers,

community representatives, etc.community representatives, etc.• Focus groups (and cognitive mapping Focus groups (and cognitive mapping

exercise) with:exercise) with:• residents of case study areas (movers and non-residents of case study areas (movers and non-

movers)movers)• Also, participant observation with estate agenciesAlso, participant observation with estate agencies

Area selectionArea selection

Interviewing in 6 case study areas as a Interviewing in 6 case study areas as a basis for understanding case-specific and basis for understanding case-specific and general processes and trendsgeneral processes and trends

Areas controlled for by:Areas controlled for by: Community backgroundCommunity background Socioeconomic class (including tenure)Socioeconomic class (including tenure) Location (inner city, middle city, suburban and near-Location (inner city, middle city, suburban and near-

rural)rural)

A ‘representative’ sample according to A ‘representative’ sample according to demographic composition of areademographic composition of area

Case study areasCase study areas

A transect approachA transect approach South BelfastSouth Belfast Incorporates 6 areas with Incorporates 6 areas with

aforementioned characteristics, plus aforementioned characteristics, plus wider processes:wider processes:

Suburbanisation and counterurbanisationSuburbanisation and counterurbanisation Inner city residualisationInner city residualisation Inner city gentrificationInner city gentrification Decentralisation of Protestant communitiesDecentralisation of Protestant communities Possible life-course characteristicsPossible life-course characteristics

Transect: South BelfastTransect: South Belfast

Outline: InterviewsOutline: Interviews

General contextGeneral context 2 case study areas: 2 case study areas:

• Middle city ‘mixed’ areaMiddle city ‘mixed’ area• Inner city Protestant communityInner city Protestant community

General / ‘universal’ trendsGeneral / ‘universal’ trends

Area 1: BallynafeighArea 1: Ballynafeigh

Middle city, ‘mixed’ community Middle city, ‘mixed’ community 1990s – mixed, with a slight Protestant 1990s – mixed, with a slight Protestant

majoritymajority Present – mixed status under-threat, with Present – mixed status under-threat, with

an increasing Catholic majority and an increasing Catholic majority and decreases in Protestantsdecreases in Protestants

Predominantly middle classPredominantly middle class Becoming more affluentBecoming more affluent Development – apartment blocks Development – apartment blocks

(gentrifying)(gentrifying)

Area 1: BallynafeighArea 1: Ballynafeigh

Recruitment: Community facilitator and Recruitment: Community facilitator and ‘For Sale’ & ‘To Let’ signs‘For Sale’ & ‘To Let’ signs

Recurring themes:Recurring themes:• Reputation as a mixed community important – Reputation as a mixed community important –

in-migration of couples in mixed marriagesin-migration of couples in mixed marriages• Graduates from the two universities (and some Graduates from the two universities (and some

current students)current students)• Starter homes for middle classesStarter homes for middle classes• Familiarity – either student near by, grew up in Familiarity – either student near by, grew up in

area, personal contactsarea, personal contacts• Perception that it is becoming more Catholic Perception that it is becoming more Catholic

due to recent in-migrationdue to recent in-migration

Area 1: BallynafeighArea 1: Ballynafeigh• Some ‘cashing in’ on rising house prices and Some ‘cashing in’ on rising house prices and

selling upselling up• Out-migration (actual and hypothetical) tends to Out-migration (actual and hypothetical) tends to

be to suburbs and rural areas – growing families be to suburbs and rural areas – growing families wanting more quiet settings, a garden, less wanting more quiet settings, a garden, less desire to be so close to the city centre, etc. desire to be so close to the city centre, etc.

• Area choice tends to be:Area choice tends to be: middle class middle class mixed (community background)mixed (community background) generally would not consider homogenous generally would not consider homogenous

areas, but if would is always the ‘same side’ - areas, but if would is always the ‘same side’ - safetysafety

Area 2: Donegall PassArea 2: Donegall Pass

Inner city Protestant (Loyalist) areaInner city Protestant (Loyalist) area Predominantly working classPredominantly working class ‘‘Typical’ of working class Protestant Typical’ of working class Protestant

communities – under threat, with a communities – under threat, with a loss of populationloss of population

Lack of suitable housing (social)Lack of suitable housing (social) Decline in services and amenitiesDecline in services and amenities Gentrified from all sides – feeling Gentrified from all sides – feeling

‘squeezed’‘squeezed’

Area 2: Donegall PassArea 2: Donegall Pass

Recruitment: Community facilitator, Recruitment: Community facilitator, focus groups and other contactsfocus groups and other contacts

Recurring themes:Recurring themes:• For most, want to stay – lots of intra-For most, want to stay – lots of intra-

area movementarea movement• Substantial out-migration due to Substantial out-migration due to

shortage of suitable housing (Housing shortage of suitable housing (Housing Executive)Executive)

• Some ‘cashing in’ on rising house prices Some ‘cashing in’ on rising house prices and selling up (mostly bought through and selling up (mostly bought through RTB)RTB)

Area 2: Donegall PassArea 2: Donegall Pass• But few choose to move if can stay – mostly But few choose to move if can stay – mostly

movement for space – migration a huge event: movement for space – migration a huge event: ““[[Moving wasMoving was]] like a death in the family…it was like a death in the family…it was really really hard…still isreally really hard…still is” (Protestant female, ” (Protestant female, mid-40s)mid-40s)

• Retention of networks and contactsRetention of networks and contacts• Movement tends to be highly segregated – Movement tends to be highly segregated –

Protestants in, and movement out to Protestant Protestants in, and movement out to Protestant areas – same with hypothetical area choiceareas – same with hypothetical area choice

• Reinforced by those selling homes – advice to Reinforced by those selling homes – advice to viewersviewers

• Housing Executive area choice – both choice and Housing Executive area choice – both choice and offeredoffered

General/ ‘universal’ trendsGeneral/ ‘universal’ trends

Reasons Reasons whywhy move: move: Dissatisfaction with current area/ propertyDissatisfaction with current area/ property More spaceMore space GardenGarden Closer to workCloser to work Closer to sick/ elderly relativeCloser to sick/ elderly relative Health reasonsHealth reasons ‘‘Up and out’Up and out’ IntimidationIntimidation

General/ ‘universal’ trendsGeneral/ ‘universal’ trends

Factors considered when do move/ have Factors considered when do move/ have moved:moved:

Familiarity – family ties, friends, where Familiarity – family ties, friends, where grew up, work, etc.grew up, work, etc.

Most search few areas and few properties Most search few areas and few properties – fairly fixed ideas about ‘acceptable’ or – fairly fixed ideas about ‘acceptable’ or notnot

Composition of the area (religion/ Composition of the area (religion/ community background) a factor in most community background) a factor in most individuals’ decisions:individuals’ decisions:• Fear / safetyFear / safety• SectarianismSectarianism

General/ ‘universal’ trendsGeneral/ ‘universal’ trends This may be overt: This may be overt: “ “Completely Catholic areas. Because, I Completely Catholic areas. Because, I

mean, I wouldn’t get a chance to live in itmean, I wouldn’t get a chance to live in it” ” (Protestant female, 40, Protestant area) (Protestant female, 40, Protestant area)

“ “II don’t think we would move into Loyalist don’t think we would move into Loyalist areas…I mean, it stands to senseareas…I mean, it stands to sense” ” (Catholic male, mid 20s, mixed area)(Catholic male, mid 20s, mixed area)

Or less directOr less direct For those claiming religion was not an For those claiming religion was not an

issue, still had firm views about areas to issue, still had firm views about areas to avoid – mainly highly segregated areas, avoid – mainly highly segregated areas, both Nationalist and Loyalist, regardless of both Nationalist and Loyalist, regardless of the religion of the interviewee the religion of the interviewee

General/ ‘universal’ trendsGeneral/ ‘universal’ trends Most tend to consider areas of same ‘type’ Most tend to consider areas of same ‘type’

as those already in – e.g. residents of as those already in – e.g. residents of working class areas choose working class working class areas choose working class areas – familiarity, horizons, but also more areas – familiarity, horizons, but also more conscious – the ‘sense of community’.conscious – the ‘sense of community’.

However, for some, social aspirations However, for some, social aspirations come to the forecome to the fore

Areas selected tended to be similar for Areas selected tended to be similar for individuals within each areaindividuals within each area

Some forced/ designed segregation – role Some forced/ designed segregation – role of institutionsof institutions

Mapping exerciseMapping exercise

‘‘Fixed’ views Fixed’ views

reinforced in the reinforced in the

mapping mapping

exercise:exercise: Area perceptions Area perceptions

and residential and residential

desirabilitydesirability

SummarySummary

Themes which are area/case-specific and Themes which are area/case-specific and generalgeneral

Reasons why people move tend to relate Reasons why people move tend to relate to ‘usual’ factors, plus NI effectto ‘usual’ factors, plus NI effect

Area selection (real and hypothetical):Area selection (real and hypothetical):• FamiliarityFamiliarity• Similar ‘types’, plus some aspirationsSimilar ‘types’, plus some aspirations• Mixed, or ‘same side’ Mixed, or ‘same side’

Potential reinforcement of segregationPotential reinforcement of segregation

ConclusionsConclusions

Mixture of methods has led to a rich tapestry Mixture of methods has led to a rich tapestry Quantitative analysis points to a relationship Quantitative analysis points to a relationship

between migration and residential between migration and residential segregation, although the picture is complexsegregation, although the picture is complex

Qualitative research shows that community Qualitative research shows that community background has a strong influence, although background has a strong influence, although other factors are importantother factors are important

In addition to natural increase (in-situ In addition to natural increase (in-situ growth), spatial reorganisation of the growth), spatial reorganisation of the population is also having a major impact on population is also having a major impact on changes in segregationchanges in segregation

AcknowledgementsAcknowledgements My supervisor, Dr Ian Shuttleworth, for his My supervisor, Dr Ian Shuttleworth, for his

comments and advicecomments and advice The participants in my interviews and The participants in my interviews and

focus groupsfocus groups The community representatives, for their The community representatives, for their

insight, and assistance in recruitmentinsight, and assistance in recruitment Department for Employment and Learning Department for Employment and Learning

(DEL), for funding(DEL), for funding Contested Cities, Urban Universities (CU2) Contested Cities, Urban Universities (CU2)

research team and funding body research team and funding body (European Programme Peace 2)(European Programme Peace 2)