Information Flows and PolicyUse of Climate Diagnostics and Cyclone Prediction for Adaptive Water-Resources ManagementUnder Climatic Uncertaintyin Western North America

Research TeamUniversity of Arizona (U.S.) R. G. Varady (PI) Udall Center for Studies in Public PolicyC. A. Scott (Deputy PI) Udall Center; Dept. of GeographyA. Browning-Aiken Udall CenterG. Garfin Institute for the Study of Planet Earth (ISPE)B. Morehouse ISPEM. Wilder Center for Latin American Studies; Dept. of GeographyEl Colegio de Sonora (Mxico)N. PinedaInstituto Mexicano de Tecnologa del Agua - IMTA (Mxico)M. MonteroNational Center for Atmospheric Research (U.S.)D. GochisNational Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (U.S.)A. RayUniversidad Nacional Autnoma de Mxico (UNAM) CNR II-2048 ProjectG. de Raga (PI) UNAML. Farfan, CICESE

ObjectivesImprove flow of climate diagnostics for policy adoptionAssess vulnerability to climate & water variabilityUrbanRuralConduct outreach & dissemination to managers

Linkages with CRNII-2048Two main societal impacts of cyclonesloss of life & propertywater resources (rainfall)Water surplus or scarcity mediate climate variability impacts for decision-makingWorking hypothesesDespite flooding & mudslides, cyclone rainfall generates positive benefits inlandover longer timeframes (months to seasons)Cyclone wind & storm-surge damages spatially concentrated along coast temporally limited to days & weeks.

Cyclone Henriette - press notesComit de Proteccin Civil Reunido de Manera PermanenteSept. 5, 2007 . . .

CIERRAN PUERTO YAVAROSSept. 6, 2007 . . .

Ejrcito Mexicano aplica Plan de EmergenciaGobernador Solicita Declaracin de Desastre2 MUERTOS, 13 MIL DAMNIFICADOSPRI y PAN Recopilarn Vveres y PRD Solicitar Intervencin de Autoridades

Rainfall benefitBeneficia el paso del huracnSofa Zamora, indgena mayo de 82 aos, ha vivido varios huracanesla lluvia provocar inicio de siembrastrajo poco viento, pero s mucha agua, que suele ser muy escasaPresas rebasan mximo nivel372 millones de metros cbicos de agua en tan slo 24 horas659 millones de metros cbicos totales se consolida prximo ciclo agrcola sin restricciones

Binational climate diagnostic tool

Project implementation

Quarter ending:Principal MilestonesDec.2007Mar.2008Jun.2008Sep.2008Dec.2008Mar.2009Jun.2009Sep.2009Project inception meeting and coordination29-OctTask A:Climate outlook (version 1) initial distribution & testing with stakeholders11-MarVersion 29-JunVersion 316-SepVersion 412-DecVersion 510-MarTask B principal milestones:Survey of climate information management in 4 cities15-MarCharacterization of civil protection & past drought and flood emergencies15-SepWater supply, demand and efficiency assessment15-Mar4-city comparative assessment of vulnerabilities15-JunTask C principal milestones:Characterization of principal agricultural production risk factors15-MarRanking of socio-economic and gender vulnerabilities in agriculture15-JunAssessment of groundwater vs. surface water irrigation15-DecCharacterization of combined climatic & economic risk in agriculture15-Mar Assessment of agriculture-urban water transfers and reuse15-JunTask D principal milestones:Regional Climate Forum for Northwest Mexico & Southwest U.S.10-Apr1st Interactive Workshop in Hermosillo, mid-June 2008.15-Jun2nd Interactive Workshop in Mexico City by mid-March 2009. 15-MarSynthesis15-Aug

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