information flows and policy · sgp hd 005 information flows and policy final report 1 1. project...

Information Flows and Policy

Use of Climate Diagnostics and Cyclone Prediction for Adaptive Water-Resources Management Under Climatic Uncertainty in Western North America

Inter-American Institute for Global Change Research, Project No. SGP HD 005

Final Report - August 31, 2009

Robert G. Varady, Principal Investigator

Udall Center for Studies in Public Policy, University of Arizona [email protected]

Christopher A. Scott, Deputy Principal Investigator

Udall Center for Studies in Public Policy, and School of Geography & Development, University of Arizona, [email protected]

SGP HD 005 Information Flows and Policy Final Report

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1. Project title: Information Flows and Policy: Use of Climate Diagnostics and Cyclone Prediction for Adaptive Water-Resources Management Under Climatic Uncertainty in Western North America Project number: SGP HD 005 Principal investigator: Robert G. Varady, Udall Center for Studies in Public Policy, University of Arizona, [email protected]. Deputy principal investigator: Christopher A. Scott, Udall Center for Studies in Public Policy, and School of Geography & Development, University of Arizona, [email protected]. Key words: climate variability, water-resources management, risk vulnerability, risk communication, adaptive strategies

2. Complementary Project Funding

National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Sectoral Applications Research Program (SARP). “Moving Forward: Adaptation and Resilience to Climate Change, Drought, and Water Demand in the Urbanizing Southwestern U.S. & Northern Mexico,” R. Varady (PI), $286,931, 2008-10. NOAA Climate Program Office. CLIMAS Integrating climate science for decision-support, mitigating risk and promoting resilience: Climate assessment for the southwest,” G. Garfin, B. Morehouse (co-PIs), $4,000,000, 2007-12.

3. Research Activities and Findings Objectives: The objectives of this project are as follows:

• Use climate diagnostic information to identify and assess societal vulnerabilities posed by cyclonic and monsoon processes including drought in both urban and rural contexts.

• Assess the institutional and policy implications of these vulnerabilities. • Work with stakeholders to bring the study findings to bear on assessing the

salience, relevance, and credibility of the science, as well as the formulation of scientific research questions.

• Initiate knowledge transfer to relevant decision makers.

Research activities: The project has been organized into four tasks in order to meet these objectives. The purpose of each task and the research activities undertaken for each are listed below.


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• Task A: Improve the flow of climate diagnostics for policy adoption.

The objectives of Task A are to provide regular, useful, and understandable information about the regional climate to decision makers that matches their needs and decision schedules. The region of study, which includes southwestern United States and northwestern Mexico, is semi-arid and thus prone to extremes in both temperature and precipitation. The winter season precipitation generally accompanies frontal systems and is highly important for groundwater recharge, while the summer North American Monsoon provides intense rains which are highly variable spatially and temporally. Climate information regarding temperatures and precipitation may thus serve as a decision-making tool for water managers. The binational and bilingual Border Climate Summary/Resumen del Clima de la Frontera (BCS/RCF) was developed during the first year of the project in order to address information needs on both sides of the U.S.-Mexico border. Since its inception, five quarterly issues of the BCS/RCF have been produced and distributed to stakeholders, primarily through the Internet (http://www.climas.arizona.edu/forecasts/border/summary.html) and e-mail. The team has actively sought feedback through formal and informal means, including two surveys distributed during stakeholder workshops in Hermosillo and Jiutepec, Mexico (see Task D).

• Task B: Assess urban vulnerability

The objectives of Task B are to determine vulnerability to climate- and water-related extremes in the rapidly growing urban areas along the border region of the United States and Mexico. This study focuses on Hermosillo, Cananea, Nogales, and Puerto Peñasco, Sonora and Tucson and Sierra Vista, Arizona. Increasing industrial and domestic water use puts strains on already scarce water supplies, and climate model projections indicate the potential for increased temperatures and aridity in the region. However, these models also predict more intense rains and flooding. Task B therefore includes institutional and policy analysis to determine if and how urban water managers use weather or climate information for contingency planning related to droughts and floods. Climate factors create a major source of vulnerability for water users and managers in the region, but decisionmaking is also affected by economic and political factors as well. In addition to historical climate and water data, investigators have gathered information about the water managers, the institutions in which they operate, and the use and flow of climate information. Interviews were conducted with various types of water managers, including some from the risk and disaster management agency Protección Civil in Sonora. Investigators on Task B have also assessed the political and economic contexts of the urban areas in this study to evaluate the limitations that may prevent decision makers from adapting management practices that reduce vulnerability to climate variability. Investigators have assessed the economic and political feasibility of a number of proposed solutions to the water manager-identified problems of water supply, demand, and the efficiency of the delivery system. These include infrastructural solutions such as aqueducts and desalination plants, economic solutions such as implementation of usage revenues, and cultural solutions such as public education campaigns that promote conservation.


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• Task C: Evaluate rural vulnerability

The objectives of Task C are to determine vulnerability to climate- and water-related extremes for rural water users and managers, particularly those in agricultural and livestock production. The livelihoods of these water users depend upon the availability and reliability of water resources, which is subject to the same climate extremes mentioned for Task B above. Water users in this region face additional challenges as groundwater levels decrease, saline intrusion increases, and competition with urban water demand intensifies with rapid growth in population and industry. Economic and political contexts affect vulnerability to climate variability in the rural areas as well. Investigators have examined how trade policies such as the North American Free Trade Agreement impact water usage in the agricultural sector by influencing which crops are grown for export. The extent to which rural water users are “doubly exposed” by vulnerabilities related to economic conditions in addition to climate conditions was also under examination. During interviews with agricultural and livestock producers in southern Arizona, investigators have identified various types of adaptive strategies available to water users in rural areas and which types are commonly used. Investigators also examined how economic and climate information, particularly seasonal climate forecasts of the type summarized in the BCS/RCF (see Task A description), flows among rural water users, who have access to this information, and how it is used to make decisions about crop and livestock production and water usage in particular.

• Task D: Conduct outreach and dissemination to managers The objectives of Task D are to examine and assess the degree to which flood and water shortage forecasting related to cyclone and drought are included in decentralized water management contingency planning and operations, and to promote exchange of information as a means to support decision making among water managers. Two stakeholder workshops were held with urban and rural water managers to discuss vulnerability to climate-related risks, adaptation, and the use and flow of information. Participants for both workshops included representatives from the governmental, academic, agricultural, fishing, and forestry sectors. The first was held on November 5, 2008 in Hermosillo, Sonora, Mexico, and the second was held on July 22, 2009 in Jiutepec, Morelos, Mexico. During these workshops, participants were invited to discuss the types of information that they need and the types that they can offer in order to reduce vulnerability and adapt to climate variability and change. The BCS/RCF was presented and tested in the November 2008 meeting in Hermosillo in order to refine the product to meet end users’ needs. In the July 2009 workshop, participants identified additional types of vulnerability to climate and water resources variability as well as information and programmatic opportunities to diminish vulnerability.


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Main findings and results:

• Task A: Improve the flow of climate diagnostics for policy adoption New contributions to the BCS/RCF have come from investigators from the Centro de Investigación Científica y de Educación Superior de Ensenada (CICESE), the University of Washington, the National Center for Atmospheric Research, and Instituto Mexicano de Tecnología del Agua (IMTA). Verbal agreements have been reached to obtain future quarterly contributions from Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN), Centro de Investigación Sobre Sequía, and the Southern Regional Climate Center. In conjunction with efforts by member institutions of CLIMAS (funded by NOAA), our project team has partnered with the Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN) to include cooperative activities in a Memorandum of Understanding between SMN and NOAA. The joint activities include: a prominent role for SMN contributions to the quarterly BCS/RCF, experimental forecasts and data products to help meet the needs that northwest Mexico stakeholders articulated in our November 2008 workshop, and continuing collaboration on experimental video briefings for border-region stakeholders. In response to stakeholder suggestions, new topics include hydrological forecasting, paleoclimate, climate and public health, and sources of data and information. Future topics as requested by stakeholders will include forecasts, historical and paleoclimate studies, U.S.-Mexico collaborative research projects, and the linkages between climate and agriculture, forestry, and ecology. Other suggestions that have been implemented or will be implemented in future issues include the improved usage of Spanish language abbreviations (January 2009), increased graphic size with map locations related to value-added text (October 2009), and products that highlight wind variations, extreme temperatures, and economic impacts. Links to the website that contains the BCS/RCF are distributed to a total of 1,743 recipients on two listservs, CLIMAS News (1,590 recipients) and Monsoon Regional Climate Applications (133 recipients). Table 1 shows the breakdown of recipients based on e-mail domains. An experimental monsoon forecast webinar (video briefing) was held on May 21, 2009 for regional stakeholders. Forecast presentations from SMN, the National Weather Service, the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), and the University of Arizona were viewed and discussed by 37 participants, including 2 stakeholders from Mexico and 3 from Tribal/Native Nations.


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Table 1. Distribution of the Border Climate Summary/ Resumen del Clima de la Frontera

Category Comments Count

.com Business or Internet provider (e.g., aol.com) 364 .edu Education, both U.S. and Mexico 498 .org Quasi-governmental or non-governmental associations

(e.g., Pima Association of Governments) 115

.gov Government (U.S.) 355 .fed Government (U.S.) 76 .az Government (state of Arizona, although some use .gov) 134

.gob.mx Government (Mexico) 23

Government subtotal

U.S. and Mexico 588

.mx All Mexico 64 Total 1723

• Task B: Assess urban vulnerability Monitoring and registering weather and climate data in Mexico is highly centralized, and Servicio Meteorológico Nacional is responsible for operating the majority of the few stations that collect data. Integrating this with other monitoring networks and building a combined database would improve climate monitoring, studies, and information dissemination. Knowledge has been gained on the rules, organization and networking of Civil Protection Agencies (Protección Civil) in Sonora. This is a mainly institutional and governmental network of agencies and local government offices to meet the population requirements during the tropical storm emergencies. Some initial insights suggest that civil participation is scarce and unorganized, and that increasing such participation may improve social response to emergencies. Analysis of hurricane response in September and October of 2008 found that information did not reach the target population in a timely and effective manner, leading to a greater need for post-event remedial support. Effective urban water management in much of Mexico is hindered by inefficiency, both in terms of water loss from the physical system as well as financial loss through the lack of cost recovery. Improving water management efficiency may increase water supplies up to 20-30 percent during a drought. An additional problem is the lack of urban development planning, which is hindered by the fact that water managers are politically appointed for short, three-year terms. As a result, long-term planning for climate and water resources variability as well as demographic growth and related water supply and demand factors is difficult to institutionalize. Instead, planning is based primarily on operational considerations of meeting water supply schedules and incrementally obtaining additional water sources to meet demand, specifically through agriculture to urban water transfers and the development of new infrastructure.


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Improved information on medium- to long-term climate change, decadal variation, and drought generally receives low priority and minimal consideration by urban water managers. These tendencies also vary by size and sophistication of the urban water utilities (organismos operadores de agua potable). Hermosillo, as the capital of the state of Sonora, has greater capability to confront planning challenges than does the medium-sized city of Cananea. Aguas de Hermosillo managers who interfaced with project investigators (both one-on-one and via workshops as described above) reported that as an autonomous utility of the Hermosillo municipal government, their planning process was bound to mayoral election cycles and the priorities (investment, location with the city, etc.) of the incumbent municipal government. Nevertheless, financial resources were made available to the utility to meet the highest-priority planning goals. By contrast, Cananea with its unique history as a mining “company town” in the process of divestment of services (water, roads, and other infrastructure) experiences a very critical gap in financial and personnel resources to meet water supply targets. In both Mexican cases considered in this project, improved climate information products and their dissemination must be enhanced through institutional strengthening and capacity building in order to diminish risk and improve services and outcomes. In the U.S., specifically the state of Arizona, a mix of public utilities and private companies manages urban water. Cities such as Tucson within the state’s designated Active Management Areas (administered by the Arizona Department of Water Resources) must meet assured water supply rules that account for scarcity and variability of current water sources over a 100-year future timeframe. Institutional mechanisms to meet these requirements include water banking and trading. However, the hydrological and water quality implications of groundwater storage and recovery are uncertain. Sierra Vista, Arizona is not located in an Active Management Area and hence the assured water supply rules do not apply. Nevertheless, the congressionally mandated San Pedro Riparian National Conservation Area imposes specific water management goals in a time-bound manner that very significantly influence urban water supply. On both sides of the border, there is growing recognition of the resource value of urban wastewater, whether used informally in urban and peri-urban agriculture (primarily the case for Hermosillo and Cananea) or as reclaimed water for urban landscaping (Tucson) or for groundwater recharge to manage riparian water levels (Sierra Vista). These operational uses of wastewater must be seen as adaptation options for urban water managers.

• Task C: Evaluate rural vulnerability Throughout the region, on both sides of the U.S.-Mexico border, groundwater is being depleted as farmers seek to adapt to climate change and variability. Crop choice, seasonal timing, and farm income (or profits for commercial agro-industrial operations) are determined to a greater extent by farm labor dynamics and commodity markets than by water availability although rising costs of energy have translated into significant cost implications for pumping groundwater. In Sonora’s coastal belt, saline intrusion is affecting aquifer water


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quality with implications not just for cropping patterns but also the sustainability of land and ultimately farming as an enterprise. Groundwater is managed distinctly in the U.S. (greater state role) and Mexico (federal authority) although operational decisions remain with farmers who ultimately are the ones who must adapt to long-term groundwater declines. Similar to this project’s previous findings in Sonora, rural water managers in Arizona rarely use climate and weather forecasts to make important decisions such as crop mixture, irrigation schedules, and herd size. Farmers tend to produce crops based on market prices and what grows well given long-term climate averages. Irrigation is an adaptive strategy that allows farmers and ranchers to respond to precipitation variability and to improve control of water inputs. However, irrigation may prove maladaptive over time as overpumping of ground and surface water increases in Arizona and Sonora. Weather and climate information has the potential to improve irrigation decision making, but for now decisions are primarily made in response to rain rather than anticipation of it. Similarly, ranchers tend to either maintain a year-to-year herd size that is sustainable regardless of the weather, or they will alter herd size in reaction to current vegetation conditions. Access to climate information is not a limiting factor for most farmers and ranchers in Arizona. Interestingly, both farmers and ranchers indicated that although seasonal climate forecasts do not usually influence their production decisions, they are always aware of what the forecasts indicate and maintain an attitude of “hope for the best, prepare for the worst.”

• Task D: Conduct outreach and dissemination to managers

The two stakeholder workshops revealed a number of obstacles to information flows. Participants in both workshops stressed the need for interagency communication and cooperation, especially when they learned that other agencies could provide useful information of which they were previously unaware. Concerns were also raised related to both the quantity and quality of information available. The main findings of the workshops were the following: 1. There is a need for improvements in data collection and distribution of forecasts and

climate information products. Collaboration across the border has resulted in advances in these areas, but strengthening these ties and activities will continue to improve the collection and communication of climate science data.

2. Information needs to be made more widely available and target a broader audience. Thinking beyond distribution on the Internet and uniting data from various regions into larger networks will enhance the utilization of information.

3. Information must be tailored to fit the needs of a variety of stakeholders so that this information may be used in decisionmaking.

4. Evaluation and follow-up for adaptive response strategies will allow decision makers to move forward with flexible adaptive water management strategies that are resilient to a range of possible changes.


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4. Contributions of Co-PIs Robert Varady – as PI, he provided project oversight and linkages with decision-makers in the U.S. and Mexico. He led the development and submission of the successful grant application to NOAA SARP for the “Moving Forward” project indicated above.

Gregg Garfin – as Task A leader, he led the development and supervised a graduate student research assistant working on the Border Climate Summary/ Resumen del Clima de la Frontera, a primary output of this project. Additionally he is the point person at the University of Arizona for collaboration with the Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN), including to operationalize the MOU signed between NOAA and SMN on January 18. 2010. Nicolás Pineda Pablos – as Task B leader, he led the urban water planning and vulnerability assessments (supervising two graduate student research assistants) with emphasis on Hermosillo and Cananea, Sonora. In addition, he provided significant support for linkages with Mexican officials and agencies and coordinated the November 2008 workshop. Christopher Scott – as Task C leader, he led the rural assessments with emphasis on the link between groundwater use and farmers’ adaptation to climate variability and drought. As project deputy PI, he provided overall project coordination and support for the November 2008 and July 2009 workshops. In these multiple functions, the graduate student research assistant he supervised provided significant input.

Martín Montero-Martínez – as Task D leader, he was responsible for stakeholder outreach particularly in Mexico. He coordinated the July 2009 workshop with input from team members, and supervised a graduate student research assistant. Other investigators (Anne Browning-Aiken, Ashley Coles, David Gochis, Barbara Morehouse, Andrea Ray, and Margaret Wilder) played crucial roles on various tasks and led the preparation and presentation of project outputs and publications listed below. Special thanks are due to Ashley Coles, a graduate student research assistant on the project, for her support in preparing this final report.


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5. Publications (project investigators are highlighted in bold type)

In print Briseño, H. 2009. La gestión eficiente del agua frente al cambio climático. Sonárida, 27.

Browning-Aiken, A. and Scott, C.A. 2009. Drought and adaptive water-resources management in southern Arizona. Proceedings of the Arizona Hydrological Society & American Institute of Hydrology, Scottsdale, AZ, Aug. 31 – Sept. 2. Coles, A.R., and Scott, C.A. 2009. Vulnerability and adaptation to climate change and variability in semi-arid rural southeastern Arizona, USA. Natural Resources Forum 33: 297-309.

Coles, A.R., Scott, C.A., and Garfin, G.M. 2009. Weather, climate, and water: an assessment of risk, vulnerability, and communication on the U.S.-Mexico border. In Proceedings of the 89th Annual Meeting of the American Meteorological Society. Phoenix, Arizona. January 11-15. http://ams.confex.com/ams/89annual/techprogram/paper_149938.htm Diaz-Caravantes, R.E., and Scott, C.A. 2009. Water management and biodiversity conservation interface in Mexico: a geographical analysis. Applied Geography (2009), doi:10.1016/j.apgeog.2009.10.003.

Garfin, G. 2009. Dry heat: An overview of climate changes and their impacts on North America’s arid regions. Sonárida, 27.

Garfin, G., Scott, C.A., Coles, A.R., Ray, A., Gochis, D., Farfán, L., Cavazos, T., Sammler, K., Varady, R., Wilder, M., Pineda, N., Montero, M., and Browning-Aiken, A. 2009. Information flows and policy: Climate, cyclones, and adaptive water-resources management at the U.S.-Mexico border. In Proceedings of the 89th Annual Meeting of the American Meteorological Society. Phoenix, Arizona. January 11-15. http://ams.confex.com/ams/89annual/techprogram/paper_146039.htm

Gochis, D.J., W. Shi, J. Schemm, L. Williams, and R.W. Higgins. 2009. A community forum for evaluation and use of seasonal forecasts of the North American Monsoon: The NAME forecast forum. Eos. 90 (29): 249-250, 21 July 2009. Morehouse, B.J., D. Ferguson, G. Owen, A. Browning-Aiken, P. Wong-Gonzales, N. Pineda, and R. G. Varady. 2008. Science and socio-ecological sustainability: Examples from the Arizona-Sonora border. Environmental Science and Policy 11(3): 272-84 Pineda, N. and A. Salazar Adams. 2009. Managing water amid rapid urbanization: Mexico’s north borderlands. In Water, Ecosystems and Sustainable Development in Arid and Semi-arid Zones, edited by G. Schneier-Madanes and M.F. Courel. Springer. Pineda, N., and Flores Félix, F. 2009. ¿Cómo mejorar la observación meteorológica terrestre en México? Sonárida, 27. Pineda, N. 2009. El manejo urbano del agua: del círculo vicioso a la participación ciudadana, la autosuficiencia y la sustentabilidad. Notas para una agenda de investigación. Memoria de la Primera Reunión de la Red Nacional del Agua, Jan. 22.


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Pineda, N. 2008. Nacidos para perder dinero y derrochar agua: el inadecuado marco institucional de los organismos operadores de agua en México. In D. Soares, S. Vargas, and M.R. Nuño (eds.), La gestión de los recursos hídricos: realidades y perspectivas tomo. Jiutepec: Instituto Mexicano de Tecnología del Agua; Guadalajara: Universidad de Guadalajara. Pineda, N. and Salazar, A. 2008. De las juntas federales a las empresas de agua: La evolución institucional de los servicios urbanos de agua en México 1948-2008. In R. Olivares and R. Sandoval (eds.), El agua potable en México: Historia reciente, actores, procesos y propuestas. México: Asociación Nacional de Empresas de Agua, 57-76. Pineda, N. 2009. El monzón de América del Norte. Entrevista a D. Gochis. Sonárida 27. Scott, C.A., S. Dall’erba, R. Díaz-Caravantes. 2010. Groundwater rights in Mexican agriculture: spatial distribution and demographic determinants. The Professional Geographer 62(1): 1-15. Scott, C.A. 2008. Data management and exchange: Challenges in a multi-national and multi-disciplinary environment (El manejo y el intercambio de datos: Desafíos en un ambiente multinacional y multidisciplinario). Inter-American Institute for Global Change Research Newsletter, 1: 25-26. Scott, C.A. and J.M. Banister. 2008. The dilemma of water management “regionalization” in Mexico under centralized resource allocation. International Journal of Water Resources Development 24(1): 61–74, DOI: 10.1080/07900620701723083.

Silva Gutiérrez, L.M. 2009. Las inundaciones en Sonora. Un reto más para Protección Civil. Sonárida, 27.

Varady, R. G., and E. Ward. 2009. Transboundary conservation in context: What drives environmental change? In Conservation of Shared Environments: Learning from the United States and Mexico. Lopez-Hoffman, L., E. McGovern, R. G. Varady, and K. W. Flessa, eds. University of Arizona Press. pp. 9-22.

Varady, R.G., C.A. Scott, G.M. Garfin, M. Wilder. 2009. Adaptation to climate change in Latin America and Caribbean: the water sector/ Adaptación al cambio climático en América Latina y el Caribe: el sector hídrico. Inter-American Institute for Global Change Research Newsletter, 1: 9-11.

Varady, R. G., and E. McGovern. 2009. Paradigmas para la gestión del agua en el siglo XXI (Paradigms for water management in the 21st century). Revista Hydria (Argentina; October) 25: 11-14. Wilder, M. 2010. Political and economic apertures and the shifting state-citizen relationship: reforming Mexico’s national water policy, in D. Huitema and S. Meijerink, eds., Water Policy Entrepreneurs: A Research Companion to Water Transitions Around the Globe. Cheltenham: Edward Elgar Publishing.


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In press Pineda, N. and A. Salazar Adams. 2009. El ciclo de centralización y descentralización del servicio de agua potable en Hermosillo, 1896-2002. Boletín del Archivo Mexicano del Agua. Scott, C.A. In press. Groundwater. Encyclopedia of Geography. Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage Publications. Scott, C.A., Megdal, S., Oroz, L.A., Mexía, M., Ramos, H. In press. Building shared vision: assessment of transboundary aquifers along the United States – Mexico border. In Proceedings of International Conference on Water Scarcity, Global Changes, and Groundwater Management Responses, University of California – Irvine, UNESCO, USGS, Irvine, CA, December 1-5, 2008. Scott, C.A., P. Silva-Ochoa. In press. Collective action for sustainable water harvesting irrigation. In Resources, Rights, and Cooperation: A Sourcebook on Property Rights and Collective Action for Sustainable Development. International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington, DC. pp. 80-83. Wilder, M., C.A. Scott, N. Pineda Pablos, R.G. Varady, G.M. Garfin. In press. Adapting across boundaries: climate change, social learning, and resilience in the U.S.-Mexico border region. Annals of the Association of American Geographers, special issue on climate change. Wilder, M. In press. Promises under construction: the evolving paradigm for water governance and the case of northern Mexico, in A. Garrido and H. Ingram, eds., Water, Food, and Sustainability. London: Routledge.

Wilder, M. and G.M. Garfin (in press). Drought risk and hazard. Encyclopedia of Geography. Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage Publications.

In review and in progress

Coles, A.R., Scott, C.A., and Garfin, G.M. (in review). Communicating risk and vulnerability: Weather, climate, and water on the U.S.-Mexico border. NOAA Climate Program Office, white paper solicitation. Garfin, G. and Ray, A. (eds.). In progress. Climate Research special issue “Climate Change at the U.S.-Mexico Border.” Scott, C.A. and Pineda, N. (in review). Negotiating urban-rural resource regimes: Water, wastewater, and the institutional dynamics of hydraulic reach in northwest Mexico. Submitted to Geoforum.

Scott, C.A., M.J. Pasqualetti. Submitted, in review. Energy and water resources scarcity: Critical infrastructure for growth and economic development in Arizona and Sonora. Natural Resources Journal.


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Wilder, M., Varady, R.G., Pineda, N., Browning-Aiken, A., Díaz-Caravantes, R.E., and Garfin, G.M. (In review). Urban water management, climate science, and adaptive capacity in northern Mexico. Submitted to Global Environmental Change.

Presentations

Browning-Aiken, A. 2009. Drought and adaptive water-resources management in southern Arizona. “Managing Hydrologic Extremes”, Arizona Hydrological Society & American Institute of Hydrology, Scottsdale, AZ, Aug. 31 – Sept. 2.

Browning-Aiken, A. 2008. The Interplay between water institutions and practices in the U.S.-Mexico Upper San Pedro Basin: Is economic development sustainable where transboundary and regional policies conflict? IV International Symposium on Transboundary Waters Management. Thessaloniki, Greece. Oct. 15-18. Coles, A.R., C.A. Scott, and G.M. Garfin. 2009. Weather, climate, and water: An assessment of risk, vulnerability, and communication on the U.S.-Mexico border. Annual Meeting of the American Meteorological Society. Phoenix, AZ. 11-15 Jan.

Coles, A.R. and J. McEvoy. 2008. Water resources and vulnerability to climate change in Arizona and Sonora. Joint Inter-American Institute – National Center for Atmospheric Research Advanced Study Program Colloquium, "Seasonality and Water Resources in the Western Hemisphere.” Mendoza, Argentina. 6-17 Oct.

Farfán, L.M., Romero-Centeno, R., Raga, G.B., and Zavala-Hidalgo, J. 2008. Landfalling tropical cyclones in the Eastern Pacific. Part I: Case studies from 2006 and 2007. Extended abstract, American Meteorological Society, 28th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology. Orlando, Florida April 28 – May 2. http://ams.confex.com/ams/28Hurricanes/techprogram/paper_138010.htm Garfin, G., 2009. Resumen del clima de la frontera/Border climate summary and online drought tools. 2009 Border Governors Conference Water Work Table Binational Drought Science Conference. San Diego, CA (invited talk). 26-27 March. http://www.watereducation.org/doc.asp?id=1187. Garfin G., A. Coles, J. McEvoy, K. Sammler, R. Varady, M. Wilder, C.A. Scott, T. Cavazos, A. Ray, D. Gochis, N. Pineda, L. Farfán, and R. Díaz. 2009. Improving information flows to enhance drought and climate change resilience in northern Mexico. Poster presented at the NOAA Climate Prediction and Applications Workshop. Norman, OK. 24-27 March. http://climate.ok.gov/cpasw/presentations.php#G

Garfin, G. 2009. Adaptation to climate change: Addressing challenges in the U.S.-Mexico border region. ASLO Aquatic Sciences Meeting: Session 100: Eutrophication and Water Management. International Comparisons of Water Quality Challenges and Policy. Nice, France. 28 Jan.

McEvoy, J. and M. Wilder. 2008. Avanzando adelante: Adaptación y resiliencia al cambio climático, la sequía y la demanda del agua en los centros urbanizantes del


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suroeste de EEUU y el noroeste de México. Arizona-Mexico Commission Fall Plenary Session. Hermosillo, Sonora, Mexico. 8 Dec.

Pineda, N. and A. Salazar Adams. 2009. Notas para la historia de los servicios urbanos de agua potable en Sonora. Simposio de la Sociedad Sonorense de Historia, Hermosillo, Sonora, Mexico. 25 Feb. Pineda, N. 2008. Agua potable en México: Historia reciente, actores, procesos y propuestas. XXII Convención anual de la Asociación Nacional de Empresas de Agua (ANEAS). Guadalajara, Jalisco, Mexico. 5 Nov.

Scott, C.A. 2009. Session panelist: Agua, territorio, y medio ambiente: políticas públicas y participación ciudadana (Water, land, and environment: public policy and citizen participation), International Congress of Americanists, Mexico City, July 21. Scott, C.A. 2009. Rural vulnerability to water resources variability under climatic uncertainty in western North America, for session “The Water Wars: Water as a Commodity or as a Human Right”, International Congress of Americanists, Mexico City, July 23. Scott, C.A. 2009. Flujo de información a tomadores de decisión: Dimensiones humanas de ciclones tropicales (Information flows to decision-makers: Human dimensions of tropical cyclones). Organized by Centro de Ciencias de la Atmósfera, Universidad Nacional Autonoma de México. Acapulco, Mexico. 13 Mar. Scott, C.A. 2008. Session chair: Adaptation and Mitigation under Climate Change and Uncertainty. American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting, San Francisco, CA, December 15-19.

Scott, C.A., 2008. Adaptive water resources management under climatic uncertainty in western North America (and member of workshop organizing committee). Regional Climate Forum for Northwest Mexico and the Southwest United States. Centro de Investigación Científica y de Educación Superior de Ensenada and NOAA, Ensenada, Baja California, Mexico. 10-11 Apr. Scott, C.A. 2008. Groundwater rights in Mexican agriculture: spatial distribution and social and economic determinants. Association of American Geographers Annual Meeting, Boston, MA, April 19.

Varady, R. G., I. Aguilar Barajas, and G. Mejía Velázquez. 2010. Environment and security in the U.S.-Mexico border region: Water and air issues. Presented at the Puentes Consortium Mexico-U.S. Higher Education Leadership Forum. Houston, TX. 14 Jan. Varady, R. G., R. Salmón Castelo, and S. Eden. 2009. Key issues, institutions, and strategies for managing transboundary water resources in the Arizona-Mexico border region. Presented at “Arizona-Israeli-Palestinian Water Management and Policy Workshop: Economic, Environmental, and Community Implications of Expanding Reuse and Desalination for Future Water Supplies.” Tucson, AZ. 1 Sept.

Varady, R. G. 2009. Information flows and policy: Use of climate diagnostics and cyclone prediction for adaptive water-resources management under climatic uncertainty in western North America. Presented at Joint Principal Investigators’ Meeting of the


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Inter-American Institute for Global Change Research (IAI). Montevideo, Uruguay. 24 June.

Varady, R. G., M. Wilder, C. A. Scott, N. Pineda, B J. Morehouse, and G. Garfin. 2009. Institutions and societal impacts of climate in the Arizona-Sonora portion of the U.S.-Mexico border region. Presented (by M. Wilder) at Open Meeting of the International Human Dimensions Program (IHDP). Bonn, Germany. 26-30 Apr.

Varady, R. G., M. Wilder, C. A. Scott, G. Garfin, N. Pineda, B. Morehouse, A. Coles, J. McEvoy, K. Sammler. 2009. Climate, society, and information flows in the U.S.-Mexico border region. Poster presented at the International Alliance of Research Universities (IARU): International Scientific Congress on Climate Change. Copenhagen, Denmark. 10-12 Mar. Varady, R.G. 2009. Member of panel on: Challenges posed by climate change and drought and their impacts on water availability and society in North America. Workshop on Climate-Related Water Constraints and Their Implications for Relations Across North American Boundaries. México City, D.F., Mexico. 5-6 Mar. Wilder, M., C. Scott, N. Pineda Pablos, R. G. Varady, G. Garfin, and J. McEvoy, 2009. Adapting across boundaries: Knowledge, social learning and resilience in the US-Mexico border region. Paper presented at Earth Systems Governance Conference. Amsterdam, Netherlands. 3 Dec. Wilder, M. with R. Díaz. 2009. Communities, conservation and climate change: New geographies of climate change governance in the binational Colorado Delta Region (juried selection of papers). Presented at the International Human Dimensions of Global Change (IHDP) Open Meeting. Bonn, Germany. 26-30 Apr. Wilder, M. with R. Díaz. 2009. Water, cities, and peri-urban vulnerabilities in Northwest Mexico. Association of the American Geographers Annual Meeting. Las Vegas, NV. 22-27 Mar.

Wilder, M. 2008. Political and economic apertures: The shifting state-society relationship and national water policy transition in Mexico. Invited paper for International Water Transitions workshop, University of Amsterdam. Amsterdam, The Netherlands. 3-4 July.

Garfin, G.M., 2010. “Climate Adaptation Partnerships in Semiarid North America” at the American Meteorological Society 90th Annual Meeting, session on The Emergence of New Scientific Partnerships. January 18, 2010, Atlanta, GA. Garfin, G.M., 2009 “CHANGE (Climate and Hydrology Academic Network for Governance and the Environment)” at the American Water Resources Association Annual Water Resources Conference. November 12, 2009, Seattle, WA. (Authors: G. Garfin, N. Lee, T. Rolfe). Garfin, G.M., 2009 “Comportamiento y previsiones del clima en el Desierto de Sonora” at the Panel sobre Hermosillo y el clima. Comportamiento, amenazas, perspectivas. 22 Octubre 2009, El Colegio de Sonora, Hermosillo, Sonora, México (invited).

Garfin, G.M., 2009 “Climate Change Projections and Impacts: Future Challenges for Arizona” at the 2009 American Planning Association (Arizona Chapter) Arizona State


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Planning Conference, session on Getting Real About Adapting to Climate Change in Arizona. 15 October 2009, Prescott Valley, Arizona. (invited)

Garfin, G.M., 2009 “Climate Change in the Southwest” at the Tohono O’odham Community College Climate Enrichment Program. 21 September 2009 Sells, Arizona. (invited) Garfin, G.M., 2009 “Climate Change Challenges and Solutions for Water Managers” at the Arizona, Israeli, and Palestinian Water Management and Policy Workshop: Economic, Environmental, and Community Implications of Expanding Reuse and Desalination for Future Water Supplies. 1 September 2009, Tucson, Arizona (invited). Garfin, G.M., 2009 “A Perspective on Applied Water Resources Research for Use by Decision Makers: The Case of Drought in Semiarid North America” at Water Resources in Developing Countries: Planning and Management in a Climate Change Scenario. Abdus Salam International Center for Theoretical Physics, Trieste, Italy. 29 April 2009. (invited)

6. Data and Metadata

Interviews: Sonora (January 2008-August 2009) 2 interviews with directors in Protección Civil in Hermosillo, Sonora. Numerous interviews with urban water managers in Hermosillo and Cananea, Sonora. Interviews with representatives from Comisión Nacional del Agua. Field notes were taken for each interview. Interviews: Rural Southern Arizona (January-May 2009): Most of the fieldwork was conducted during four visits to rural communities in Cochise and Pima County. Four interviews were carried out over the telephone. Field notes were taken for each interview. Cochise County: 17 interviews with farmers, ranchers, Natural Resource

Conservation Service (NRCS) agents, and a wildlife refuge caretaker.

Pima County: 5 interviews with farmers, NRCS agents, and a Cooperative Extension agent.

Surveys: Hermosillo Workshop (November 2008): Surveys were distributed among workshop participants regarding principal concerns for water managers, adaptive strategies and limitations, and feedback about the BCS/RCF. 34 surveys were collected and analyzed.


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Surveys: Cuernavaca Workshop (July 2009): Surveys were distributed among workshop participants regarding principal concerns for water managers, adaptive strategies and limitations, and feedback about the BCS/RCF. 25 surveys collected and analyzed. Document Collection: Newspaper articles in Sonora (August-October 2008) Newspaper articles were collected that document the passage of Hurricanes Julius (August), Lowell (September), and Norbert (October) through Sonora.

7. Capacity Building

Students trained: Name: Ashley Coles Affiliation: University of Arizona, Udall Center for Studies in Public

Policy. Graduate research assistant. Nationality: United States Grade: PhD student Area of expertise: Risk perception and communication, atmospheric sciences Student involvement in project: This student contributed to the development of research

protocols, including semi-structured interview questions. She interviewed agricultural and livestock producers in southern Arizona and co-authored a paper on the results (Coles and Scott, 2009). She participated in the Hermosillo and Cuernavaca workshops as an organizer and attendee.

Scholarship duration and amount: 1 year, $14,450 + summer salary

Name: Hugo Briseño Ramirez Affiliation: Colegio de Sonora. Graduate research assistant. Nationality: México Grade: Master’s student Area of expertise: Risk assessment Student involvement in project: H. Briseño researched the efficiency of urban water management

and adaptive water management strategies in Hermosillo and other semi-arid cities. He has gathered general quantitative information about water management and has conducted several interviews to water managers.

Scholarship duration and amount: 1 year, $36,000 MEP


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Name: Luis Miguel Silva Affiliation: Colegio de Sonora. Graduate research assistant. Nationality: México Grade: Master’s student Area of expertise: Risk assessment Student involvement in project: This student researched and developed a master’s thesis on

Protección Civil in Sonora, including participation in an internship in the Protección Civil Office of the Sonora State Government. He assessed the structure and policy of Protección Civil, evaluated performance over the last ten years, and gathered information on the social and economic impacts of tropical storms in Sonora.

Scholarship duration and amount: 1 year, $36,000 MEP

Name: Patricio Eduardo Byerly Sosa Affiliation: Instituto Technico de Sonora. Graduate research assistant. Nationality: Mexican Grade: Master’s student Area of expertise: Environmental consultancy Student involvement in project: This student researched and completed a bilingual report on the

data available for Sonora’s reservoirs and rivers, including previous studies and historical data. He also attended the Hermosillo and Cuernavaca workshops.

Scholarship duration and amount: 10 months, $6,300.00 USD Name: Mario Anibal Bravo Affiliation: Colegio de Sonora Nationality: Mexican Grade: Master’s student Area of expertise: Rural-urban water transfers Student involvement in project: M.A. Bravo researched the topic of rural and urban competition

for access to water resources in the Region of Hermosillo. He has been reviewing the legal frame of water transfers and the prospect for the cities to have access to agricultural water as a measure of adaptive management.

Scholarship duration and amount: 1 year, no funding on IAI grant, but provided important input Name: Ernesto Pliego Affiliation: Colegio de Sonora Nationality: Mexican Grade: Master’s student Area of expertise: Urban water management Student involvement in project: Conducted field research into the water rates and management in

Cananea, Sonora. Scholarship duration and amount: 6 months, no funding on IAI grant, but provided important input


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8. Regional Collaboration/Networking Team member institutions: United States Udall Center for Studies in Public Policy Climate Assessment for the Southwest (CLIMAS) University of Arizona National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

(NOAA) National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) México El Colegio de Sonora (COLSON) Instituto Mexicano de Tecnología del Agua (IMTA) Instituto de Sonora (ITSON) Collaborators’ institutions: United States University of Washington México Centro de Investigaciones Científicas y Educación Superior

de Ensenada (CICESE) Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México (UNAM) Universidad de Sonora (UNISON)

Meeting attendees’ institutions: United States Arizona State University (ASU)

International Border Water Commission (IBWC) International Research Institute for Global Change Research (IRI)

México AgriEnlace Agua de Hermosillo (AguaH)

Asociación de Productores de Uva de Mesa de Sonora Centro de Estudios Superiores del Edo Sonora (CESUES) Centro de Desarrollo Ambiental (CEDEA) – CESUES Centro Nacional de Investigación Disciplinaria en la Relación Agua-Suelo-Planta-Atmósfera Centro Investigación en Alimentación y Desarrollo (CIAD) Centro Investigaciones Biológicas del Noroeste (CIBNOR) Colegio de la Frontera (COLEF) Comité Estatal de Sanidad Vegetal Sonora (CESAVESON) Comisión de Ecología y Desarrollo Sustentable (CEDES) Comisión Estatal del Agua (CEA) Sonora Comisión Internacional de Límites y Agua (CILA) Comisión Nacional del Agua (CNA) Comisión Nacional de Áreas Naturales Protegidas (CONANP) Fundación Produce Sonora Instituto Nacional de Ecología (INE) – UNAM Instituto Nacional de Investigaciones Forestales, Agrícolas y Pecuarias (INIFAP) Instituto Nacional de Pesca (INAPESCA)


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Instituto Tecnológico de Estudios Superiores de Monterrey (ITESM) Organismo Operador Municipal de Agua Potable, Alcantarillado y Saneamiento (OOMAPAS), Nogales Patronato para la Investigación y Experimentación Agrícola del Estado de Sonora (PIEAES) Productora de Nuez SPR de RI

Protección Civil Proyecto de Reforestación Secretaría de Agricultura, Ganadería, Desarrollo Rural, Pesca, y Alimentación de México (SAGARPA) Secretaría de Medio Ambiente y Recursos Naturales (SEMARNAT)

Ancillary Networking: o CHANGE Workshop.

o Investigator Garfin co-convened a workshop entitled “Climate-Related Water Constraints and their Implications for Relations Across North American Boundaries,” on March 5-6, 2009 (http://www.environment.arizona.edu/change/workshops/climate-related-water-constraints). The workshop brought together researchers from Canada, the U.S., and Mexico (including IAI project researchers Garfin, Varady, and Pineda) to discuss climate-related water and environmental issues in transboundary regions. The workshop kicked-off a research coordination network called the Climate and Hydrology Academic Network for Governance and the Environment (CHANGE). In addition to the $13,000 garnered from the Department of Foreign Affairs and International Trade (Canada) mentioned in last year’s report, Garfin and colleagues garnered an additional $17,000 in matching funds from the following institutions: Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, the National Integrated Drought Information System (NOAA), the Drought Research Institute, Instituto Nacional de Ecologia, the Arizona Water Institute, and Public Works Canada. Workshop publications are available on the aforementioned website, and monthly updates from CHANGE members are available here: http://www.environment.arizona.edu/change.

o Elsevier Environment Science and Policy special issue. o Investigators Robert Varady and Gregg Garfin, in collaboration with

colleague Patricia Romero-Lankao (NCAR), are negotiating with Elsevier, B.V. (Executive Publisher, Dr. Christiane Barranguet) to coordinate and co-edit a special issue of the journal Environment Science and Policy. The special issue will focus on reviewing and evaluating integrated assessment and water management projects and programs that have been developed to address issues regarding, water, climate, society and public policy in the Americas – in part, to highlight work from IAI research, including this project. Dr. Barranguet has suggested that we convene potential authors at the April 2010


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meeting of the International Association for Impact Assessment (http://www.iaia.org/iaia10/).

9. Media Coverage and Prizes Radio: Co-PI Martín Montero was interviewed on “Planeta Agua,” a local radio program in Cuernavaca about the project-sponsored workshop hosted by IMTA on July 22, 2009. UFM Alterna, 106.1 FM radio UAEM, July 17, 2009 from 7:00 to 7:55 hrs.

Co-PI Nicolas Pineda and graduate students E. Pliego, H. Briseño, and L. Silva were interviewed on different dates during the summer of 2009 on the radio talk show “La conversada” of Radio Sonora, which reaches all of Sonora. Print: “Intercambian información sobre aspectos climáticos.” July 31, 2008. El Imparcial (Hermosillo, Sonora). Following the award of the complementary funding provided by NOAA-SARP, two news articles were released describing the aims of the project. Harrison, J., University Communications. “NOAA, UA Study to Examine Links Between Border Growth, Natural Resources. Researchers from the UA and Sonora will address questions about urban growth, climate, and water supplies in four key urban areas.” October 20, 2008. UA News (University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ).

Davis, T. “UA water study to evaluate 'hot spots' on border: Effort on both sides of the line to have new slant.” October 23, 2008. The Arizona Daily Star (Tucson, AZ).

Newsletter: The newsletter (boletín) Portales del Colegio de Sonora had several reports on the project activities and included a link to the BCS/RCF.

10. Policy Relevance

As a human dimensions project, this project’s primary goal has been to undertake policy-relevant research on climate and water variability as linked to societal vulnerability. The central objective of the project has been to engage decision makers in the southwestern United States and northwestern Mexico. Specific policy impacts have been achieved through the Border Climate Summary/ Resumen del Clima de la Frontera (improved linkages among researchers and official agencies), through the two stakeholder workshops held in November 2008 and July 2009 (with emphasis on urban and rural


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managers in Mexico), and through leveraged projects (NOAA SARP and CLIMAS, which have permitted the team to raise the profile of regional, cross-border U.S.-Mexico climate and water variability for researchers and agencies in the U.S.). In particular, the project has forged strong linkages to Mexico’s national meteorological service (SMN), which is planning a long-term, cooperative relationship with NOAA for joint work in the border region. Similarly, the project team has interacted strongly with the Arizona Department of Water Resources, the California Department of Water Resources, and the Border Governors Association on water-and-climate issues, especially drought. In an even broader effort, the project team is part of the trinational (Canada, U.S., and Mexico) network entitled “The Climate and Hydrology Academic Network for Governance and the Environment” (CHANGE, see http://www.environment.arizona.edu/change), a knowledge exchange and research coordination network between academic researchers and experts from non-governmental and governmental organizations in North America with the explicit goal of fostering cross-border cooperation to enhance the use of climate and hydrologic research and better inform North American water policy challenges. The project team aims to continue these very successful efforts through ongoing and future projects.

11. Main Conclusions

The IAI project, “Information Flows and Policy: Use of Climate Diagnostics and Cyclone Prediction for Adaptive Water-Resources Management Under Climatic Uncertainty in Western North America,” has continued work begun in 2003 with funding from NOAA. As such, it has benefited from the experience of the binational research team and its familiarity with the conditions and salient issues of the region in question, the western portion of the U.S.-Mexico border. As a result, the project was able to achieve a “running start” in the fall of 2007, upon the award of the IAI grant. One of the great benefits of the prior work and expertise of the team was our acquaintance with many of the relevant agencies and personnel in the two countries, enabling the researchers to home in on key decision-makers and scientists. Consequently, we obtained high acceptance rates to our invitations to stakeholders’ workshops and were able to engage directly with high government officials such as the heads of SMN, IMTA, CONAGUA, and state agencies in Mexico, and with similarly well-placed officials in the United States and Arizona. A major conclusion is that interest in climate and its effects on water management, disaster planning, and economic development is building in both nations. And—perhaps counterintuitively—at a time when relations between the United States and Mexico frequently are portrayed in the press as adversarial and dominated by narcotrafficking, crime, and illegal immigration, we found a strong spirit of scientific collaboration and shared concern for addressing mutual concerns. Our colleagues—at institutions in the two countries—are dedicated researchers and officials who are determine to raise public consciousness on the issues of climate change and variability and their impacts on society.


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On a more tangible plane, we discovered that working together to produce a real product—the binational, bilingual Border Climate Summary—was feasible and yielded palpably useful results. We also found that with rapidly growing adoption of the Internet in Mexico, the exercise permitted us to produce a climate tool that could not have been achieved five years ago. Our researchers collected valuable data on the various sectors impacted by climate and have published and disseminated their findings in a large and diverse set of venues. These have included academic conferences and symposia, stakeholder workshops, media outlets, and high-level meetings. As section 5, above, shows, a number of project outputs are still in the making, with articles in press or in review. In short, we believe that the work funded by IAI is timely, in demand, and of great societal relevance to both countries. We also believe that the methodologies we have employed, with strong emphasis on stakeholder engagement, are highly transferable to other countries and societies.

13. Summary for Non-Scientific Audiences The IAI-supported project “Information Flows and Policy: Use of Climate Diagnostics and Cyclone Prediction for Adaptive Water-Resources Management Under Climatic Uncertainty in Western North America” has generated relevant applied research and outreach with stakeholders related to four complementary adaptive management activities. First, the project produced the U.S.-Mexico Border Climate Summary, an innovative information and policy product to improve the flow of climate diagnostics on drought- and monsoon-affected area straddling the U.S.-Mexico border. Second, the team assessed vulnerability in urban center experiences rapid demographic, industrial, and economic growth. Third, rural vulnerabilities particularly for groundwater use, climatic variability, and onset and strength of the North American monsoon were assessed. Finally, the binational team of scientists and decision-makers undertook outreach and dissemination of relevant climate and vulnerability information for decision-makers and managers.

14. Remaining Funds

None expected.

15. Observations on the IAI Program IAI has successfully seeded collaboration among physical scientists and human/social dimensions experts. This is particularly manifest in the SGPHD-005 study area of Arizona and Sonora, where both droughts and cyclones recur in unpredictable ways to


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expose vulnerabilities in rural and urban areas. Without IAI support for this initiative, the team expects that separate physical and social science research would have proceeded in isolation. In other words, the significant innovation stemming from IAI support was the integration across disciplinary boundaries of holistic approaches to climate risk and adaptation. The research is broadly applicable outside the study region, especially due to the catalytic role played by the Border Climate Summary in bringing scientists and decision-makers together. Furthermore, dual urban and rural risks and vulnerabilities have been explored in ways that would have been more challenging with a more strict disciplinary focus. Further consultation processes, e.g., “Rethinking Integrated Assessments and Management Projects in the Americas” (2010 Meeting of Americas, Foz do Iguaçu, 08–13 August 2010), are under development with IAI support.


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Appendix 1 Ancillary Outputs by Project Team Members

Publications

In print Frisvold, G. 2009. Strategic behavior in transboundary water and environmental management. Pp. 279-300 in Policy and Strategic Behaviour in Water Resource Management, edited by A. Dinar and J. Albiac. London: Earthscan (ISBN: 9781844076697). Richter, H., D.C. Goodrich, A. Browning-Aiken, and R. Varady. 2009. Integrating Science and Policy for Water Management. Pp. 388-406 in Ecology and Conservation of the San Pedro River, edited by J.C. Stromberg and B. Tellman. Tucson, AZ: University of Arizona Press.

Serrat-Capdevila, A., A. Browning-Aiken, K. Lansey, T. Finan, and J. B. Valdes. 2009. Increasing social-ecological resilience by placing science at the decision table: The role of the San Pedro Basin decision support system model (Arizona). Ecology and Society 14(1):37. [online] URL: http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol14/iss1/art37/

Ela, W., C. Graf, T. Poulson, J. Baygents, J. Theron, P. Fox, and C.A. Scott. 2008. Salinity management and desalination technology for brackish water resources in the arid West. Summary report of workshop on “Improving Salinity Management and Desalination Technology for Brackish Resources in the Arid West” Sponsored by Arizona Water Institute, Bureau of Reclamation. June. http://www.azwaterinstitute.org/media/Ela%20Final%20Report Frisvold, G. and K. Emerick. 2008. Rural-urban water transfers with applications to the U.S. Mexico border region. Pp. 155-180 in Game Theory and Policy Making in Natural Resources and the Environment, edited by A. Dinar, J. Albiac, and J. Sanchez-Soriano. New York: Routledge Press. Hoover, J. and C.A. Scott. 2008. Water, electric power and growth in southern Arizona. In Proceedings of American Institute of Professional Geologists and Arizona Hydrological Society Symposium on “Changing Waterscapes and Water Ethics for the 21st Century.” Flagstaff, AZ. 20-24 Sept. Jones, J. 2008. With significant contribution from G. M. Garfin, A.J. Ray, C.A. Scott, R.G. Varady, and M. Wilder. Water and border area climate change: An introduction (issued in translation as: Agua y cambio climático en el área fronteriza: Una introducción). Special Report for the XXVI Border Governors Conference. California Department of Water Resources, Sacramento, CA.

Scott, C.A., E.B. Halper, S.R. Yool, and A. Comrie. 2009. The evolution of urban heat island and water demand. In Proceedings of the 89th Annual Meeting of the American Meteorological Society, Eighth Symposium on the Urban Environment, Phoenix, AZ, 11-15 Jan. http://ams.confex.com/ams/89annual/techprogram/paper_150343.htm Wilder, M. 2008. Equity and water in Mexico’s changing institutional landscape. Pp. 95-116 in Water, Place, and Equity, edited by R. Perry, H. Ingram, and J. Whiteley. Cambridge: Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) Press.


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Banister, J.M. and C.A. Scott. 2007. Descentralización de los recursos hidráulicos de México: Por qué tiene importancia la historia (Decentralizing Mexico’s water resources: Why history matters). Sonárida 12(23): 20-23. Browning-Aiken, A., B. Morehouse, A. Davis, M. Wilder, R. Varady, D. Goodrich, R. Carter, D. Moreno, and E.D. McGovern. 2007. Climate, water management, and policy in the San Pedro basin: Results of a survey of Mexican stakeholders near the U.S.-Mexico border. Climatic Change 85(Dec.): 323-341. Díaz, R. 2007. La demanda de agua en las ciudades fronterizas: El caso de Nogales, Sonora. (Water Demand in Border Cities: The case of Nogales, Sonora). Sonárida 12(23). Pineda, N. 2007. Construcciones y demoliciones: Participación social y deliberación pública en los proyectos del acueducto de El Novillo y de la planta desaladora de Hermosillo, 1994-2001. Región y Sociedad XIX Número Especial, 89-115.

Pineda, N., A. Browning-Aiken and M. Wilder. 2007. Equilibrio de bajo nivel y manejo urbano del agua en Cananea, Sonora. Frontera Norte 19(37).

Ray, A.J., G.M. Garfin, M. Wilder, M. Vásquez-León, M. Lenart, and A.C. Comrie. 2007. Applications of monsoon research: Opportunities to inform decisionmaking and reduce regional vulnerability. Journal of Climate 20(9): 1608-1627. Ray, A.J., G.M. Garfin, L. Brito-Castillo, M. Cortez-Vázquez, H.F. Diaz, J. Garatuza-Payán, D. Gochis, R. Lobato-Sánchez, R.G. Varady, and C. Watts. 2007. Monsoon region climate applications: Integrating climate science with regional planning and policy. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 88(6): 933-35. Rosenberg, N.J., V.M. Mehta, J. R. Olsen, H. von Storch, R.G. Varady, M.J. Hayes, and D. Wilhite. 2007. Societal adaptation to decadal climate variability in the United States. CRCES Workshop on Adaptation to Decadal Climate Variability in the United States. Waikoloa, Hawaii. 26-28 Apr. 2007. Eos 88(43): 444. Scott, C.A., F. Flores-López, J.R. Gastélum. 2007. Appropriation of Río San Juan water by Monterrey City, Mexico: Implications for agriculture and basin water sharing. Paddy & Water Environment, special issue on “Transfer of Water from Irrigation to Urban Uses: Lessons from Case Studies.” 5(4): 253-262, DOI 10.1007/s10333-007-0089-3. Scott, C.A., R.G. Varady, A. Browning-Aiken, and T.W. Sprouse. 2007. Water and energy management challenges on the Arizona-Mexico border. In Proceedings of Southwest Hydrology and Arizona Hydrological Society Regional Water Symposium “Sustainable Water, Unlimited Growth, Quality of Life: Can We Have It All?” Tucson, AZ. 29 Aug. – 1 Sept. Scott, C.A., R. G. Varady, A. Browning-Aiken, and T. W. Sprouse. 2007. Water and energy resources in the Arizona-Sonora border region. Southwest Hydrology 6 (5): 26-27, 31. Varady, R.G., A. Browning-Aiken, G. Garfin, D. Goodrich, B. Morehouse, and M. Wilder. 2007. Use of climate-information products by water managers and other stakeholders in two GCIP/GAPP watersheds in Arizona/Sonora and Oklahoma. Final Report to NOAA OAR Climate Program Office (CPO). Tucson, AZ: Udall Center for Studies in Public Policy.


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In press Jacobs, K., Garfin, G., Buizer, J., 2010. New Techniques at the Science-Policy Interface: Climate Change Adaptation in the Water Sector. Science and Policy.

Hutchinson, C. F., R. G. Varady, and S. Drake. 2009. What's old and what's new in arid lands water management? In Water, Ecosystems and Sustainable Development in Arid and Semi-arid Zones, edited by G. Schneier-Madanes and M.F. Courel. Springer. Milman, A., C.A. Scott. In press. Beneath the surface: Intra-national institutions and management of the United States – Mexico transboundary Santa Cruz aquifer. Environment and Planning C: Government and Policy. Richter, H., D. C. Goodrich, A. Browning-Aiken, R.G. Varady. 2009. Integrating science and policy for water management. Pp. 388-406 in Ecology and Conservation of the San Pedro River, edited by J.C. Stromberg and B.J. Tellman. Tucson, AZ: University of Arizona Press.

In review and in preparation Browning-Aiken, A., K.J. Ormerod, C.A. Scott. Submitted, in review. Testing the climate for non-potable water reuse: Opportunities and challenges in water-scarce urban growth corridors. Journal of Environmental Planning & Policy. Browning-Aiken, A., T. Sprouse, M. Iles, G. Saliba, and A. McCoy. In review. Collaborative resource management theory and practice: Lessons from three Arizona watershed organizations. Díaz, R. and M. Wilder. In review. Water, climate change, and peri-urban vulnerabilities in northwest Mexico. Garfin, G., N. Lee, V. Magana, R. Stewart, J. T. Rolfe, and J. McEvoy. 2009 (submitted). CHANGE: Climate and Hydrology Academic Network for Governance and the Environment. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. Scott, C.A., S. Megdal, L.A. Oroz, J. Callegary, and P. Vandervoet. Submitted, in review. Assessment of United States – Mexico transboundary aquifers facing climate change and growth in urban water demand. Climate Research. Wilder, M., A. Ray, N. Pineda, and R. Díaz. In preparation. Social and economic vulnerability to climate change in the U.S.-Mexico borderlands. For submission to Journal of Climate Research.

Conference Presentations and Participation Browning-Aiken, A. and C.A. Scott. 2009. Drought and adaptive water-resources management in southern Arizona, for “Managing Hydrologic Extremes”, Arizona Hydrological Society & American Institute of Hydrology, Scottsdale, AZ, August 31 – September 2, 2009.


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Browning-Aiken, A. 2009. The Potential for increasing social ecosystem resilience: Collaborative planning and institutional assessment. UNESCO HELP Program Seminar, Lisbon, Portugal 23-26 June. Browning-Aiken, A. 2008. Opportunities and challenges in Arizona for nonpotable water use. Arizona Hydrological Society - 21st Annual Symposium, Flagstaff, AZ. 24-25 Sept. Browning-Aiken, A. 2007 Retos para implementar planeación hidrológica transfronteriza: Cambios de políticas recientes, regímenes de gestión, y practicas institucionales en EEUU y México. WWF4 FT 2.33 Advancing Local Actions in Basins, sub-Basins and Aquifers through Comprehensive IWRM Learning and Global Networks. 4th World Water Forum. Mexico City, Mexico. 16-22 March.

Browning-Aiken, A. 2007. A river running in the desert: Lessons for IWRM from the San Pedro HELP Basin on the U.S.-Mexico border. HELP Southern Symposium: HELP in Action -- Local Solutions to Global Water Problems -- Lessons from the South. South Africa, Gauteng. 4-9 Nov. Browning-Aiken, A., D. Goodrich, R. Varady, and H. Richter. 2007. Lessons for integrated water resources management from the San Pedro HELP Basin on the U.S.-Mexico border. Eos Trans. Fall AGU Meeting. Supplement, Abstract H21F-0809. San Francisco, CA. 10-14 Dec.

Díaz, R. 2008. Water for the environment and livelihoods: The case study of Alamos. Annual Meeting of the Association of American Geographers. Boston, MA. 15-19 April.

Díaz, R. 2007. Water management, sustainability and the challenge of drought: Geographies of conservation in northern México. Annual Meeting of the Association of American Geographers. San Francisco, CA. 17-21 April. Farfán L.M. 2008. Update on border climate-related research. Research Group Meeting on Border Water, Growth and Climate Projects. University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ. 26 Sept. Farfán, L.M., D. Pozo, G.B. Raga, R. Romero-Centeno, and J. Zavala-Hidalgo. 2008. A training course on tropical cyclones over the eastern Pacific Ocean. American Geophysical Union Spring Assembly, Ft. Lauderdale, FL. 27-30 May.

Farfán, L.M. and M.A. Cosio. A weather analysis system for the Baja California peninsula: Tropical cyclone season of 2007. American Geophysical Union Spring Assembly, Ft. Lauderdale, FL. 27-30 May. Garfin, G., R. Varady, and A. Ray. 2007. Establishing an ongoing binational U.S.-Mexico border climate diagnostic summary: Developing a prototype and navigating the institutional landscape. Presented at AGU Joint Assembly. Acapulco, Mexico. 23 May.

Goodrich, D., A. Browning-Aiken, R.G. Varady, and H. Richter. 2007. Lessons for integrated water resources management from the San Pedro HELP Basin on the U.S.-Mexico border. AGU Meeting. San Francisco, CA. 10-14 Dec. Goodrich, D. H. Richter, R. Varady, A. Browning-Aiken, and J. Shuttleworth. 2007. The Upper San Pedro Partnership: A case study of successful strategies to connect science to societal needs. Presented at AGU Joint Assembly. Acapulco, Mexico. 25 May.

Pineda, N.. 2008. Los enfoques actuales del desarrollo regional. II Semana Académica. ITSON. Empalme, Sonora, Mexico. 23 Oct.


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Romero-Lankao, P. 2009. Societal and environmental challenges to water management and use, lessons and insights from Mexico City. ASLO Aquatic Sciences Meeting. Nice, France. 28 Jan.

Scott, C.A., R.G. Varady, G.M. Garfin, and others. 2009 Researcher-Managers Workshop on Water and Energy Sustainability with Rapid Growth in the Arizona-Sonora Border Region, Arizona Water Institute, Tucson, AZ, June 1, 2009. Scott, C.A. 2009. Panelist: Agua, territorio, y medio ambiente: políticas públicas y participación ciudadana (Water, land, and environment: public policy and citizen participation), International Congress of Americanists, Mexico City, July 21, 2009.

Scott, C.A. 2009. Rural vulnerability to water resources variability under climatic uncertainty in western North America, for session “The Water Wars: Water as a Commodity or as a Human Right”, International Congress of Americanists, Mexico City, July 23, 2009. Scott, C.A. 2009. Session chair: Water, energy, and global change (co-sponsored by Water Resources and Energy & Environment Specialty Groups). Association of American Geographers Annual Meeting, Las Vegas, NV. 22-27 Mar.

Scott, C.A. 2009. Panelist, Integrated water resources management: Best practices for stakeholder engagement in water resources planning. Water Resources Research Center 2009 Annual Conference, University of Arizona. Tucson, AZ. 17 Mar. Scott, C.A. 2009. The global commodification of wastewater. Panel on New Trends in Regulation, Symposium on Water Governance: the Public-Private Debate. Organized by Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique and Center for Sustainability of semi-Arid Hydrology and Riparian Areas, University of Arizona. Tucson, AZ. 4 Feb. Scott, C.A. 2008. The United States – Mexico transboundary aquifer assessment program. Water Resources Research Center Seminar Series, University of Arizona. Tucson, AZ. 8 Dec. Scott, C.A. 2008. Session chair: H42 Adaptation and mitigation under climate change and uncertainty. American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting. San Francisco, CA. 15-19 Dec. Scott, C.A. 2008. Cactus, riparian habitat, and turf grass: Water budget and policy implications of vegetation change under urban heat island and effluent irrigation in the southwest U.S. American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting. San Francisco, CA. 15-19 Dec.

Scott, C.A. 2008. Building shared vision: Assessment of transboundary aquifers along the United States – Mexico border. International Conference on Water Scarcity, Global Changes, and Groundwater: Management Responses. University of California – Irvine, UNESCO, USGS, 1-5 Dec.

Scott, C.A. 2008. Groundwater rights in Mexican agriculture: Spatial distribution and social and economic determinants. Association of American Geographers Annual Meeting. Boston, MA 19 Apr. Scott, C.A. 2007. Energy boom and groundwater bust: Mexico’s water-energy nexus with implications for the U.S. border region. First Western Forum on Energy and Water Sustainability, Bren School of Environmental Science & Management, Univ. of California, Santa Barbara, CA. 22 Mar.


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Scott, C.A., 2007. The water-energy nexus in Mexico: Groundwater sustainability along the border with the United States. Hydrology & Water Resources Departmental Seminar Series, University of Arizona. Tucson, AZ. 21 Feb. Scott, C.A. 2007. Water and energy management challenges on the Arizona-Mexico border. Southwest Hydrology and Arizona Hydrological Society Regional Water Symposium. Tucson, AZ. 31 Aug.

Scott, C.A., Session chair: Coupled water and energy demand in the Southwest and U.S.-Mexico border region. Southwest Hydrology and Arizona Hydrological Society Regional Water Symposium. Tucson, AZ. 31 Aug. Varady, R.G., G. Garfin, B. Morehouse, and M. Wilder. 2007. Institutions and societal impacts of climate in the Lower Colorado and San Pedro Basins of the U.S.-Mexico Border region. Presented at AGU Joint Assembly. Acapulco, Mexico. 25 May.

Wilder, M. 2008. Una sobre-vista de los proyectos NOAA-SARP y CLIMAS. Inter-American Institute on Global Change Research (IAI) Stakeholders’ Workshop. Universidad de Sonora. Hermosillo, Sonora, Mexico. 7 Nov. Wilder, M. 2008. Sobre agua, ciudades y gestión adaptiva. Inter-American Institute on Global Change Research (IAI) Stakeholders’ Workshop. Universidad de Sonora. Hermosillo, Sonora, Mexico. 7 Nov. Wilder, M. 2008. Overview of NOAA-SARP and CLIMAS projects on water, cities, and adaptive management. Institute for the Study of Planet Earth and Udall Center for Studies in Public Policy, University of Arizona. Tucson, AZ. 26 Sept.

Wilder, M. 2008. Promises under construction: The evolving water governance paradigm and the case of northern Mexico. Invited participant at the Rosenberg International Forum for Water Policy. Zaragoza, Spain, 23-28 June. Wilder, M. 2008. How does the public fit in? Climate change, adaptation and social stakeholders in the Southwest US and Northwest Mexico. Guest lecture, Department of Political Science, University of Redlands. Redlands, CA. 16 May.

Wilder, M. 2008. New geographies of environmental governance: Communities, conservation and climate change in the Colorado Delta and border region. Spaces and Society Lecture Series, Department of Political Science, University of Redlands. Redlands, CA. 15 May. Wilder, M. 2008. New geographies of environmental governance: Communities, conservation and climate change in the Colorado Delta and border region. Association of the American Geographers Annual Meeting. Boston, MA. 17 April.

Wilder, M. 2008. The environment for water: 21st-Century transitions in Mexican water policy and implications for Sonora. Rocky Mountain Council on Latin American Studies (RMCLAS) 2008 Meeting. Flagstaff, AZ. 11 Apr. Wilder, M. 2008. Transboundary water: Problems and challenges. Presented to Mexican Migration Scholarship Meeting, Consortium of North American Higher Education (CONAHEC), University of Arizona. Tucson, AZ. 9 Apr.


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Wilder, M. 2008. Water governance in Mexico. Presented to the International Water History Association (IWHA) Board. Tucson, AZ. 19 Mar.

Wilder, M. 2008. Communities, conservation, and climate change: New geographies of environmental governance in the binational Colorado Delta Region. Department of Geography and Regional Development Colloquium, University of Arizona. Tucson, AZ. Feb. Wilder, M., R.G. Varady, N. Pineda, A. Browning-Aiken, R. Díaz, and G. Garfin. 2007. New water management institutions in Mexico’s ‘new culture of water’: Emerging opportunities and challenges for effective use of climate knowledge and climate science. Presented at AGU Joint Assembly. Acapulco, Mexico. 23 May.

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