Indias Next Steps In South Asia

Illustration: Jayachandran/Mint

Narendra Modis foreign policy adventures began when he was sworn-in as prime minister with leaders of

Indias neighbouring countries in attendance. His first visit abroad, to Bhutan, was jeered as being

insignificant, but its importance was not lost on India observers. Then, within a month, friction with

Pakistan, verbal and on the battlefield, began in earnest. Islamabad understood that needling India does

not pay and piped down. In December, Mahinda Rajapaksa exited the stage after years of balancing India

against China. This created room for India to re-engage with Colombo on a positive note.

Starting this week, Modi will visit Seychelles, Mauritius and Sri Lanka. It is notable that he is not visiting

the Maldives where former president Mohamed Nasheed is being given a rough treatment by the present

government. This will be the first time in 28 years that an Indian prime minister will be visiting Sri Lanka.

Mauritius, with which India has friendly ties and strong ethnic links, has seldom received the importance

due to it. Seychelles is another country that has remained below the radar.

All these countries are island states in the Indian Ocean. For a very long time, India has enjoyed an easy

security situation on its southern borders. This is in marked contrast to our northern borders where our

armed forces have to maintain constant vigil and even undertake occasional engagements with our friends

to the west and east. However, the situation in the south is changing rapidly. Chinas massive investments

in these countries, especially Sri Lanka, coupled with the Chinese Navys forays in the Indian Ocean, have

rapidly eroded Indias security surplus in the region. The visit by Chinas submarines to Sri Lanka last year

was only the culmination of long neglect of this region.

Of particular importance to India is Sri Lanka, because of its proximity, the significance of the Tamil

question and the extent of Chinese influence in the country. Modis visit to Sri Lanka was preceded by that

of external affairs minister Sushma Swaraj and foreign secretary S. Jaishankar last week. Sri Lankan

President Maithripala Sirisena visited India in February on his first foreign trip after taking office.

Sirisenas election, after the decade-long rule of Rajapaksa, bodes well for India-Sri Lanka relations. This

is the right time to maintain the momentum of engagement between the countries and cement a lasting

friendship.

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For too long, Indias relationship with Sri Lanka has been subject to the whims and fancies of political

parties in Tamil Nadu. Hopefully, Modis visit will signal an end to that. It is noteworthy that ever since the

announcement of his visit, no Tamil party has protested against it. A clear, strong, signal is all that it takes

to make these domestic busybodies back off. This is in stark contrast to what happened under the previous

dispensation where even a whimper of protest was sufficient to cancel a visit of the prime minister.

This paper has argued in the past that Indias foreign policy has suffered from drift rather than design.

Under Modis leadership, this trend seems to be changing.

For straightforward economic and more complex strategic reasons, having a good working relationship

with neighbours is crucial for any country. For India, located between hostile Pakistan and China, this is of

much more consequence. Soon after foreign secretary Jaishankar took charge, he embarked on a journey

to the capitals of South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (Saarc) countries and visited Bhutan,

Bangladesh, Pakistan and Afghanistan. This was the first leg of his visit to Saarc nations. He is expected to

visit other member countries in the coming months. Within a year of taking charge, external affairs

minister Swaraj has already visited all Saarc countries except Pakistan.

The last governments lax approach towards engaging with Saarc countries gave space to China to expand

its sphere of influence in the region and encircle India. Swaraj and Jaishankars bilateral meetings in these

countries will help in making up lost ground in the region. Indias entanglements in the region are

complex and have often been caught in a web of hostility and mistrust. It will take more than a visit to sort

this out, but at least a start has been made.

Has Indian foreign policy regained coherence? Tell us at views@livemint.com

Excerpted from Indias next steps in South Asia - Livemint

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