india equity analytics for today - buy stocks of reliance industries limited with target price rs...
TRANSCRIPT
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8/13/2019 India Equity Analytics for today - Buy Stocks of Reliance Industries Limited with Target Price Rs 1040
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email: [email protected], website : www.narnolia.com
Narnolia Securities Ltd,
402, 4th floor 7/1, Lords Sinha Road Kolkata 700071, Ph 033-32011233 Toll Free no : 1-800-345-4000
HINDALCO : "BUY" 24th Dec 2013
Hindalco has expanded its aluminium capacity recently, low aluminium prices, sticky costs, delay in commencement of mining from captiv
blocks and higher interest and depreciation costs may hit its profitability. In the near-term, there is lack of clarity over production from the
Mahan coal block for its Mahan smelter. Without captive coal block, the Mahan smelter is expected to face cost pressures, resulting in lower
return ratios over FY2013-15.So Clearance of Mahan coal block will be most awaited trigger for Hindalco. Mean While on the Positive Side We
can expect 7% growth on the Stock with a Target Price of Rs.132.............. ( Page:13-15)
IEA-Equity
Strategy
30th Dec, 2013
Tech Mahindra :"On a stronger footing.." "BUY" 23rd Dec 2013
Post merger with Satyam, strong demand traction in Telecom (Non BT) has improved and company's attractive deal win ratios make u
optimistic view on the stock. At a CMP of Rs 1691, relatively the stock is trading at a fair valuation, 12.8x of FY14E earnings (at USD o
Rs60/59.5 for FY14E/FY15E). We maintain BUY on the stock with a price target of Rs 2330 (revised from Rs 1875)....... .......... .... ( Page : 18-19
Persistent System : "Persistently innovating.." "REDUCED" 23rd Dec 2013
We had initiated this stock at a CMP of Rs 526(on 16th Feb 2013) and now, it achieved its target of Rs 960. Despite better predictability o
growth and attractive visibility of its expansion in new emerging verticals, we advice to book profit on the stock because of its premium
valuation. However, sentiment could take a knock in the short run, since investors may prefer paying a premium for stocks with better earnings
visibility. Our view could be change with management guidance and post earnings of coming quarter................................................... ( Page : 16
17)
Infosys : Bala exit; a pros and cons? "BUY" 26th Dec , 2013
Last week, V Balakrishnan a former CFO and member of Board director resigned from the company to turn entrepreneur of Private Equity
space. Currently, he is the head of Infosys business process outsourcing unit, the company's core banking software Finacle, its India busines
and chairman of Infosys Lodestone. This was now the 8th senior and top level departure after the taking charges by Company founder Narayan
Murthy. At a CMP of Rs 3486, it trades at 19.2x FY14E and 16.7x FY15E earnings. We retain our BUYview on the stock with a target price o
target price of Rs 3620............................... ( Page : 11-12)
DCB : "REDUCE" 27th Dec 2013
DCB is currently trading at 1.3 times of one year forward book which is almost upper side of valuation band. We value the bank at Rs.62/share
which is 1.4 times of one year forward book and 15 times of FY14E earnings. Valuation multiple is justified at present fundamental in our view
but has potential to expand the multiple once visibility of ROE improvement clearly come to on the floor after 1-2 quarters......................................................... Pa e : 8-10
J&K BANK : "HOLD" 30th Dec 2013
J&K Bank is one of our prefer bank in mid cap private sector banking space. Currently bank is trading at 1 times of one year forward book and
4.6 times of one forward earnings which we believe bank is still trading at attractive valuation post recent rally. We advice our investor to hold
the stock as bank is trading at lower valuation in comparison to private sector banks despite of having sound fundamental. We value bank a
Rs.1578/share which is 1.1 times of FY15s book and 5.2 times of FY15s earnings. ..... ( Page : 5-7)
RELIANCE : Good Growth Ahead "BUY" 30th Dec 2013
Reliance Industries Limited registered a turnover of Rs 197112 Cr for the half year ended 30th September 2013, up 4.7% YoY while it had
made turnover of Rs 188,193 Cr in 1HFY13. The exports were higher by 19.3% YoY to Rs 134455 Cr for 1HFY14.. ( Page : 2-4)
India Equity Analytics
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8/13/2019 India Equity Analytics for today - Buy Stocks of Reliance Industries Limited with Target Price Rs 1040
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BUY
1M 1yr YTD
bsolute 4 6 11
el. to Nifty 0.5 -1 -7
Current 1QFY14 4QFY1
omoters 45.3 45.3 45.3
17.7 17.4 17.8
I 11.8 11.6 11.0
hers 25.2 25.7 25.9
Rs, Cro
2QFY14 1QFY14 (QoQ)-% 2QFY13 (YoY)-%
Revenue 103758 90336 14.9 87645 18.4
EBITDA 9909 9610 3.1 9818 0.9
PAT 5490 5352 2.6 5409 1.5
EBITDA Margin 9.6% 10.6% (110bps) 11.2% (170bps
PAT Margin 5.3% 5.9% (60bps) 6.2% (90bps)
arget Price 1040
evious Target Price -
18%
RELIANCEGood Growth Ahead
ock Performance-%
hare Holding Pattern-%
kt Capital (Rs, Cr)
arket Data
SE Code 500325
Abou t the Company
Reliance Industries Limited (RIL) is a conglomerate with business in the energy amaterials value chain. The Company operates in three segments: petrochemicals, refini
and oil & gas.
Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report.
Half Year ly Financial Perform ance
The operating EBITDA during 1HFY14 was Rs 14924 Cr up 2.3 % YoY on the backhigher margins in refining and petrochemicals business. The cost RM increased by 3 %Rs 162,094 from Rs 156,975 Cr due to higher crude prices. The employee cost for 1HFYwas Rs 1707 Cr largely flat on yearly basis. The other expenditure increased by 13.6% Yto Rs 13,101 Cr primarily due to higher expenses on account of power & fuel consumptand higher selling expenses on account of higher exports.
The profit after tax was higher by 9.4% at Rs 10,842 Cr as against Rs 9,912 Cr in tcorresponding period of the previous year. The other income for 1HFY14 stands Rs 4595 up 14 % YoY mainly due to higher investment income.
1HFY14 revenue from the Petrochemicals segment increased by 6.7% YoY to Rs 46,8Cr. Higher prices accounted for 7.4% growth in revenue. EBIT margin improved to 9.4%1H FY14 as compared to 8.0% a year ago. The production during 1HFY14 was 11 MTones verses 11.1 Mn Tonnes in 1HFY13.
Yr Price Movement Vs Nifty
(Source: Company/Eastwi
283929
verage Daily Volume 52019
fty 6313
ompany UpdateMP 878
pside Half Year ly Bus iness Performance
wk Range H/L 954/765
SE Symbol RELIANCE
OIL AND GAS (EXPLORATION & PRODUCTION) BUSINESS:
Company for half year ended earned Rs 2918 Cr from this business segment down 38.7% YoY mainly due to Fall in production from KG-D6 owing to geological complexand natural decline in the fields.The EBIT margin for the segment in 1HFY14 was 24.3% .
REFINING & MARKETING BUSINESS
Financials
hange from Previous -
Reliance Industries Limited registered a turnover of Rs 197112 Cr for the half year end30th September 2013, up 4.7% YoY while it had made turnover of Rs 188,193 Cr1HFY13.The exports were higher by 19.3% YoY to Rs 134455 Cr for 1HFY14.
Revenue from Refining and Marketing segment during 1HFY14 increased by 5.7% YoYRs 178,914 Cr, while EBIT was up 8.3% YoY at Rs 6,125 Cr. GRMs averaged $ 8.0/bduring 1H FY14 and the refineries achieved an average utilization rate of 112%. 1H FY
export of refined products was at 22.1 MMT as compared to 19.2 MMT in 1H FY13.
PETROCHEMICALS BUSINESS
"BUY" 30thDec' 13
Narnolia Securities Ltd,
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8/13/2019 India Equity Analytics for today - Buy Stocks of Reliance Industries Limited with Target Price Rs 1040
3/20
ew and Valuat ione stock is trading at Rs 878 and in light of half yearly performance, business outlook and
anagement commentary we recommend BUY for the stock with Target Price Rs
40.
QFY14 SEGMENTAL REVENUE BREAK UP
raphical Depict ion
e net addition to fixed assets for the half year ended 30th September 2013 was Rs,154 Cr including exchange rate difference capitalization. Capital expenditure wasncipally on account of ongoing expansions projects in the petrochemicals and refiningsiness at Jamnagar, Dahej, Silvassa and Hazira.
e Outstanding debt as on 30th September 2013 was Rs 83,982 Cr compared to Rs,427 Cr as on 31st March 2013. The company had cash and cash equivalents of Rs,540 Cr. These were in bank deposits, mutual funds, CDs and Government securities /nds. RIL is debt free on a net basis as at 30th September 2013.
anagement Comm entary
e management of the company on their half yearly performance said that diversified andegrated petrochemicals business captured margins across segments and delivered nearcord profit levels even as the domestic economy slowed. The management further saidat optimal utilization of best-in-class refinery assets and inherent flexibility in sourcing,
oduct delivery contributed to healthy operating profits from our refining business .
(Source: Company/Eastwind)
Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report.
RELIANCE
ontinued.
Narnolia Securities Ltd,
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8/13/2019 India Equity Analytics for today - Buy Stocks of Reliance Industries Limited with Target Price Rs 1040
4/20
(Source: Company/Eastwind)
RELIANCE
les Trend (Rs/Bn)
A better realisation with a weaker rupee aimproved volume were the key drivers of
sales growth of both petchem and refin
businesses.
BITDA & OPM %
(Source: Company/Eastwind)
AT & NPM %
(Source: Company/Eastwind)
Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report.
The improved margin and higher volume
the petrochemical (petchem) business w
the major drivers of the profit in Q2FY2014
Despite a healthy revenue growth, O
remain flat due to a lower margin in
refining and exploration segments
Narnolia Securities Ltd,
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8/13/2019 India Equity Analytics for today - Buy Stocks of Reliance Industries Limited with Target Price Rs 1040
5/20
J&K BANK
1411
15781420
12
11
1M 1yr YTD
bsolute 3.6 7.8 7.8
el.to Nifty -12.9 -0.8 -0.8
Current 4QFY13 3QFY1
omoters 53.2 53.2 53.2
I 24.8 24.5 24.3
I 5.0 4.9 4.9
hers 17.1 17.4 17.7
Financials Rs, Cr2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E
NII 1544 1838 2316 2595 3091
Total Income 1908 2172 2800 2979 3817
PPP 1149 1370 1811 1906 2443
Net Profit 615 803 1055 1128 1478
EPS 126.9 165.7 217.6 232.6 304.9
kt Capital (Rs Cr)
Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report.
(Source: Company/Eastwind)
ock Performance
wk Range H/L
hange from Previous
&k Bank Vs Nifty
hare Holding Pattern-%
21053
fty 6314
ompany Update HOLD
MP
arget Price
Jammu and Kas hm ir Bank (J&K Bank ) is one of our prefer bank in mid ca
private sector ban king s pace. Currently bank is trading at 1times of one ye
forw ard book and 4.6 times of one forw ard earnings wh ich w e believe bank st i l l t rading at at t ract ive valuat ion despi te of recent ra l ly . We advice o
inves tor to hold the stoc k as bank is trading at low er valuat ion pr emium
com pariso n to peers despite of havin g soun d fundamental. We value bank
Rs.1578/share which is 1.1 times o f FY15sbook and 5.2 times o f FY15
earnings. Look ing atbanksmetric s lik e Tier1 cap ital of 13.2%, GNPA of 1.7
PCR at 92% mak e it stron g for trading at premium valu ation as com pare
peers group.
verage Daily Volume
6841
evious Target Price
arket Data
pside
1695/1130
SE Code 532209
SE Symbol J&KBANK
At the end of 2QFY14, bank reported GNPA of 1.7% and in absolute basis, GNP
grew by mere 4% QoQ despite of current phase of economy cycle. Restructure loa
declined by 70 bps to 3.6% of loans whereas fresh restructure was low at 70 bps
loan. Provision coverage ratio declined by 250 bps QoQ to 89% (without technic
write-off) made net NPA to 0.2% from 0.1% in 1QFY14.
Strong balance sheet growth con t inued with margin expansion
J&K bank aggressively expanding its loan growth outside of the state and witness
20.3% growth whereas within state loan grew by 26.4% in 2QFY14. Manageme
guided loan growth of 20-25% in FY14 premium of industry average of 15
Deposits growth would be 17-18% in FY14 according to management. BanksCAS
ratio at the end of 2Q stood at 39% which keep cost of deposits at 6% of level, o
of the lowest in industry. Low cost and high yield asset helped bank to maintain N
at 4.33%. Banks management guided NIM 4%+ level in FY14.
Sustainable high return ratio makes a strong case to trade at premium
valuation
J&K bank has sustainable high return ratio like ROE of 23%+ and ROA of 1.5%
which help bank to maintain high valuation premium. Operating leverage (operati
cost to total asset) of the bank remains at 1.4 to 1.6 times in last few quarters wh
restrict cost income escalate beyond 36%. Capital adequacy ratio of 13.2
according to basel-II helps bank to maintain high growth trajectory with raising capi
in next few years.
Stable asset quality with lowest restructure asset comparison to peers
"HOLD"30th Dec, 2013
Narnolia Securities Ltd,
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8/13/2019 India Equity Analytics for today - Buy Stocks of Reliance Industries Limited with Target Price Rs 1040
6/20
J&K BANK
Source: Eastwind/Company
Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report.
Narnolia Securities Ltd,
aterly Result (Rs. Cr) 2QFY14 1QFY14 2QFY13 % YoY Gr % QoQ Gr
erest/discount on advances / bills 1244 1184 1061 17.3 5.0
ome on investments 396 423 417 -5.0 -6.3
erest on balances with Reserve Bank of India 10 17 23 -57.4 -42.8
hers 0 0 0
tal Interest Income 1650 1624 1501 9.9 1.6
hers Income 99 92 91 9.4 7.9
tal Income 1749 1716 1592 9.9 1.9
erest Expended 968 969 948 2.1 -0.1
682 655 553 23.4 4.1
her Income 99 92 91 9.4 7.9
tal Income 781 747 644 21.4 4.6
ployee 177 176 143 23.6 0.6
her Expenses 108 90 78 38.7 19.4
erating Expenses 285 266 221 28.9 7.0
P( Rs Cr) 496 481 423 17.5 3.2
ovisions 56 36 33 69.7 53.7
T 441 445 390 13.1 -0.9
x 138 137 120 14.8 1.0
t Profit 303 308 270 12.3 -1.7
ance Sheet Data ( Rs Cr)
t Worth 5475 5173 4609 18.8 5.9
posits 61171 58601 54927 11.4 4.4rrowings 1346 758 922 45.9 77.7
vances 41121 39282 34272 20.0 4.7
estment 22316 21734 22521 -0.9 2.7
set Qaulity ( Rs Cr)
PA 709 665 709 0.0 6.5
PA 78 56 78 0.0 38.2
PA(%) 1.7 1.7 2.1
PA(%) 0.2 0.1 0.2R(%) 89 92 89
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8/13/2019 India Equity Analytics for today - Buy Stocks of Reliance Industries Limited with Target Price Rs 1040
7/20
J&K BANK
Source: eastwind/Company
Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report.
Narnolia Securities Ltd,
L 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015Eerest/discount on advances / bills 2342 2630 3394 4318 4959 5703
ome on investments 705 1066 1403 1723 1892 2085
erest on balances with Reserve Bank of India 11 17 39 97 53 53
hers 0 0 0 0 0 0
tal Interest Income 3057 3713 4836 6137 6904 7841
hers Income 416 365 334 484 383 727
tal Income 3473 4078 5170 6621 7287 8568
erest on deposits 1841 2069 2902 3741 4217 4639
erest on RBI/Inter bank borrowings 83 46 41 26 91 111
hers 14 54 54 54 0 0
erest Expended 1938 2169 2997 3821 4308 4750
1119 1544 1838 2316 2595 3091
Growth(%) 37.9 19.1 26.0 12.1 19.1
her Income 416 365 334 484 383 727
tal Income 1536 1908 2172 2800 2979 3817
ployee 366 524 521 652 633 811
her Expenses 211 235 281 337 440 563
erating Expenses 577 759 802 989 1072 1374
P( Rs Cr) 958 1149 1370 1811 1906 2443
ovisions 446 534 567 756 779 965
t Profit 512 615 803 1055 1128 1478
t Profit Grwoth(%) 20.1 30.6 31.4 6.9 31.1
y Balance sheet data
posits 37237 44676 53347 64221 70643 77707
posits Growth(%) 20.0 19.4 20.4 10.0 10.0
rrowings 1100 1105 1241 1075 1230 1500
rrowings Growth(%) 0.4 12.3 -13.4 14.4 22.0
an 23057 26194 33077 39200 45080 51843
an Growth(%) 13.6 26.3 18.5 15.0 15.0
estments 13956 19696 21624 25741 20124 22178
estments Growth(%) 41.1 9.8 19.0 -21.8 10.2
stwind Calculation
ld on Advances 10.2 10.0 10.3 11.0 11.0 11.0
ld on Investments 5.0 5.4 6.5 9.4 9.4 9.4
ld on Funds 7.7 7.5 8.3 8.9 10.6 10.6
st of deposits 4.9 4.6 5.4 5.8 6.0 6.0
st of Borrowings 8.8 9.1 7.7 7.4 7.4 7.4
st of fund 5.1 4.7 5.5 5.9 6.0 6.0
luation
ok Value 621 718 844 1003 1186 1441
BV 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.3 1.2 1.0
E 6.4 6.9 5.5 5.9 6.1 4.6
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8/13/2019 India Equity Analytics for today - Buy Stocks of Reliance Industries Limited with Target Price Rs 1040
8/20
57.25
6262
8
-
1M 1yr YTD
bsolute 19.2 20.4 20.4
el.to Nifty 15.6 13.1 13.1
Current 4QFY13 3QFY1
omoters 18.5 18.5 18.5
I 11.4 11.4 11.1
I 14.1 12.5 13.0
hers 56.1 57.7 57.5
Financials Rs, Cr2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E
NII 189 228 284 127 190
Total Income 301 328 401 272 334
PPP 86 84 126 95 127
Net Profit 21 55 102 95 127
EPS 1.1 2.3 4.1 3.8 5.1
SE Code 532772
SE Symbol DCB
wk Range H/L
ompany Update Book Profit
MP
arget Price
Well capitalized and stable asset quality
Bank is well capitalized with tier 1 ratio of 13% means no need to raise money
short term. Banksmanagement guided loan and deposits growth of 25-27% and 3
32% in FY14 which seen possible looking at present scenario. Management is al
very focus on low ticket size loan (prefer less than 30 mn) on account of avoidilarge slippage. At the 2QFY14, bank reported slippage of Rs.21 cr which was 1.3
in annualized basis. Fresh slippage ratio remains in the range of 1.1-1.5 times in la
few quarters, so we believe bank would maintain similar trend in term of fre
slippage which restrict GNPA out of control. Provision coverage ratio at the end
2QFY14 stood at 84% (without technical write off) and management reiterate PCR
maintain above of 80%.
kt Capital (Rs Cr)
Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report.
(Source: Company/Eastwind)
Potential to expand valuation multiple, need to watch growth trajectory 1
quarters more
On valuation front, DCB valuation could be expanded if visibility of RO
improvement is clearly seen. ROE improvement could be possible in two front- firreducing cost income ratio which will boost the profit and second loan grow
specially in high yield segment like SME and MSME. We observed that banksCo
Income ratio was higher at 66.2% at the end of 2QFY14. Cost income ratio wou
reduce to less than 65% in FY14 and would further reduce to 60% in FY15 accordi
to management. To reduce the cost, bank initiated to invest high yield segme
planning to maintain CASA at 30% in long run while in short term does not expe
below of 27% and escalating branch network. In FY13 bank opened 10 branches b
in 1HFY14, DCB opened 9 branches and will go upto 120-125 branches in FY14.
54.85/38
ock Performance
DCB
hange from Previous
CB Vs Nifty
hare Holding Pattern-%
2158026
fty 6279
Developm ent Credit Bank (DCB) cur rent ly trading at 1.3 times o f one ye
forw ard book whic h is now alm ost of higher side of our valuat ion range. W
valu e the bank at Rs.62/sh are at the high er side whi ch is 1.4 tim es of one yeforw ard book and 15 times of FY14Esearnings. Present valuat ion mult ip
jus t if ied on account of DCBscon sis tent improv ement in its return rat io an
management guided simi lar t rend of growth in FY14,however bank ci te
marg in could be com press ed by 25-30 bps . We cantrule out the valuat io
mu ltip le exp ans ion s but there is need to watch 1-2 qu arters mo re as per o
view
verage Daily Volume
1437
evious Target Price
arket Data
pside
"Book Profit"27th Dec,2013
Narnolia Securities Ltd,
-
8/13/2019 India Equity Analytics for today - Buy Stocks of Reliance Industries Limited with Target Price Rs 1040
9/20
DCB
Source: Company/Eastwind
Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report.
Narnolia Securities Ltd,
uarterly Result( Rs Cr) 2QFY14 1QFY14 2QFY13 % YoY % QoQ
erest/discount on advances / bills 205.2 201.5 170.9 20.1 1.8
come on investments 57.9 56.7 47.6 21.8 2.1
erest on balances with Reserve Bank of India 5.5 2.3 1.1 378.2 142.4
hers 0.2 0.2 0.4 -45.6 -9.7
tal Interest Income 268.8 260.7 219.9 22.2 3.1
hers Income 27.3 45.1 27.5 -0.9 -39.5
tal Income 296.1 305.8 247.5 19.6 -3.2
erest Expended 177.6 177.6 153.0 16.1 0.0
91.3 83.1 67.0 36.3 9.8
her Income 27.3 45.1 27.5 -0.9 -39.5
tal Income 118.5 128.2 94.5 25.5 -7.6
mployee 38.8 37.7 34.1 13.9 2.9
her Expenses 39.6 39.2 33.9 16.8 1.1
erating Expenses 78.4 76.9 68.0 15.4 2.0
P( Rs Cr) 40.1 51.3 26.5 51.4 -21.8
ovisions 7.0 8.5 4.4 60.8 -17.4
T 33.1 42.8 22.1 49.5 -22.7
x 0.0 0.0 0.0
t Profit 33.1 42.8 22.1 49.5 -22.7
lance Sheet (Rs Cr)
t Worth 1079 1046 902 19.6 3.2
posits 8788 8320 7137 23.1 5.6
an 6677 6472 5671 17.7 3.2
set quality (Rs Cr)
NPA 235 226 226 4.0 4.0
A 57 54 38 50.0 5.6
GNPA 3.5 3.5 4
NPA 0.9 0.8 0.7
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8/13/2019 India Equity Analytics for today - Buy Stocks of Reliance Industries Limited with Target Price Rs 1040
10/20
DCB
Source: Eastwind/ Company
Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report.
Narnolia Securities Ltd,
come Statement 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E
terest Income 459 536 717 916 1090 1279
terest Expense 317 347 489 632 963 1089
I 142 189 228 284 127 190
hange (%) -28.2 33.6 20.4 24.9 -55.3 49.1
on Interest Income 107 112 100 117 145 145
otal Income 249 301 328 401 272 334
hange (%) -21.6 21.2 8.9 22.4 -32.3 23.0
perating Expenses 201 215 244 275 177 207
e Provision Profits 48 86 84 126 95 127
hange (%) -36.5 79.9 -2.6 50.5 -24.5 33.5
ovisions 121 57 29 24 0 0
BT -73 29 55 102 95 127
AT -79 21 55 102 95 127
hange (%) -10.1 -127.2 157.1 85.3 -6.7 33.5
alance Sheet
eposits( Rs Cr) 4787 5610 6336 8364 9618 11061
hange (%) 3 17 13 32 15 15
which CASA Dep 1693 1975 2035 2272 2597 1825
hange (%) 17 17 3 12 14 -30
orrowings( Rs Cr) 504 861 1123 1526 1697 1952
vestments( Rs Cr) 2018 2295 2518 3359 2886 3318
ans( Rs Cr) 3460 4271 5284 6586 7903 9484
hange (%) 6 23 24 25 20 20
atio
vg. Yield on loans 10.4 9.4 10.1 10.8 9.7 9.7
vg. Yield on Investments 4.7 5.8 6.9 5.8 6.8 6.8
vg. Cost of Deposit 5.9 5.2 6.4 6.4 5.9 5.9
vg. Cost of Borrowimgs 6.8 6.4 7.2 6.4 6.0 6.0
aluation
ook Value 30 31 36 40 44 49
MP 32.2 45.9 45 45 57.3 57.3BV 1.1 1.5 1.3 1.1 1.3 1.2
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8/13/2019 India Equity Analytics for today - Buy Stocks of Reliance Industries Limited with Target Price Rs 1040
11/20
Infosys
How do we see the impacts of this buzz?
1M 1yr YTD
solute 4.1 52.1 27.2
l. to Nifty -0.3 44.9 23.3
Current 4QFY13 3QFY13
omoters 16.04 16.04 16.04
40.52 40.55 39.42
17.51 18.7 18.33
hers 25.93 24.71 26.21
Financials2QFY14 1QFY14 (QoQ)-% 2QFY13 (YoY)-%
Revenue 12965 11267 15.07 9858 31.5
EBITDA 2836.9 2664 6.49 2597 9.2
PAT 2406.9 2374 1.39 2369 1.6
EBITDA Margin 21.9% 23.6% (170bps) 26.3% (440bps
PAT Margin 18.6% 21.1% (250bps) 24.0% (540bps
E Symbol INFY
ange from Previous 7%
Behind the top-level departure, only one cause reflects on the picture that is the tus
of CEO post. Current CEO Shibulal is going to complete its tenure by next yea
Among the front-runner of this post, Balakrishnan was strong contender for the po
of CEO race.
wk Range H/L 3570/2190
ock Performance
160944
(a) We think, there would not be any major impact on qualitative and quantitative sen
and company would not see any major gap between sales executives and clients. Yethe magnitude of the exits could create a leadership vacuum. However, very so
company will try to turn into smoothie organization structure.
evious Target Price 3390side 4%
E Code 500209
kt Capital (Rs Crores)
erage Daily Volume 1240448
fty 6268
Bala exit; a pros and cons?
MP 3486
rget Price 3622
ompany update BUY Does Balakrishnan departure from Infosys would affect the companys bread a
butter?
Last week, V Balakrishnan a former CFO and member of Board director resigned fro
the company to turn entrepreneur of Private Equity space. Currently, he is the headInfosys business process outsourcing unit, the company's core banking softwa
Finacle, its India business and chairman of Infosys Lodestone. This was now the
senior and top level departure after the taking charges by Company founder Naraya
Murthy.arket Data
year forward P/E
Rs, Cro
(Source: Company/Eastwi
Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report.
(d) Post Narayana Murthy, company has committed for future transformational chang
and next generation growth plan. Recently, the company has undertaken a clear shift
direction where it has been focusing on higher-margin businesses, a strategy that riv
TCS that has successfully implemented.
For near term, there could be some small sort of rally on the stock because of this kn
jerk and as the December quarter is generally expected to be a bit tepid for t
technology sector. Although, the street will forget all things after a good quart
earnings or a strong commentary on the business outlook. For long term, we do n
see any major pressure because of cos poster boy exit.
(b) V Balakrsihnansresignation is not one night decision and not an affect of intern
hiccups. Post declaration of his resignation V Balakrishnan stated to media itwas m
long term plan and we were waiting for SEBI approval for my new Private Equity firm
Even, he sold 1,00,000 shares in the company for Rs 33 crore in the open market on 9
Nov 2013 (50,000 shares each held by his daughters), it indicates its earlier decisio
Therefore, we think Balas exit is a part of an ongoing strategy to reshuffle the t
management at Infosys.
(c) The top management conundrum has not been new to Infosys. Even, as Infosy
hyper-growth story played out over the course of three decades, powered by not just
seven cofounders but also several talented employees that came on later on. Even, mo
of company founders have churned out and company has been working for growth sto
and committing for strategy 3.0.
are Holding Pattern-%
"BUY"26th Dec' 13
Narnolia Securities Ltd,
-
8/13/2019 India Equity Analytics for today - Buy Stocks of Reliance Industries Limited with Target Price Rs 1040
12/20
Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report.
nancials
(Source: Company/Eastwind)
onsidering the revised guidance by management and its growth priority than margin
ching up strategy, we are positive on the stock. At a CMP of Rs 3486, it trades at 19.2x
Y14E and 16.7x FY15E earnings. We retain our BUY view on the stock with a target
ice of target price of Rs 3622.
Infos s.
iew and Valuation:fosys seems to be on its way to rediscovering its past mojo with revenue momentum
cking, its past strategy of under-promising and over delivering - remember present
idance now factors flat gorwth in next 2 qtrs, and the NRN invisible hand in play.
rther announcement of strategic acquisitions, better utilization of cash balances, ramp-
p in sales investment ,better deal win, consistent client traction and revenue
omentum would help the company to bridge the gap with rivals such as TCS and HCL
ch.
Narnolia Securities Ltd,
s in Cr, FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14E FY15E
ales, INR 22742 27501 33734 40352 48659.6 55939.
mployee Cost 12085 14856 18340 22565 27736.0 32165.
Other expenses 2792 3677 4671 6254 7785.5 9230.0
otal Expenses 14877 18533 23011 28819 35521.5 41395.
BITDA 7865 8968 10723 11533 13138.1 14544.
epreciation 905 854 928 1099 1325.3 1523.5
Other Income 982 1211 1904 2365 2433.0 3356.4
BIT 7942 9325 11699 12799 14245.8 16377.
nterest Cost 0 0 0 0 0.0 0.0
BT 7942 9325 11699 12799 14245.8 16377.
ax 1681 2490 3367 3370 3846.4 4421.8
AT 6261 6835 8332 9429 10399.4 11955.
rowth-%
ales 4.8% 20.9% 22.7% 19.6% 20.6% 15.0%
BITDA 9.3% 14.0% 19.6% 7.6% 13.9% 10.7%
AT 4.6% 9.2% 21.9% 13.2% 10.3% 15.0%
Margin -%
BITDA 34.6% 32.6% 31.8% 28.6% 27.0% 26.0%
BIT 34.9% 33.9% 34.7% 31.7% 29.3% 29.3%
AT 27.5% 24.9% 24.7% 23.4% 21.4% 21.4%
xpenses on Sales-%
mployee Cost 53.1% 54.0% 54.4% 55.9% 57.0% 57.5%
Other expenses 12.3% 13.4% 13.8% 15.5% 16.0% 16.5%
ax rate 21.2% 26.7% 28.8% 26.3% 27.0% 27.0%
aluation
MP 2615.1 2765.1 2865.0 2400.0 3486 3486
o of Share 57.4 57.4 57.4 57.4 57.4 57.4
W 23049.0 25976.0 31332.0 37994.0 45236.1 53832.
PS 109.1 119.0 145.1 164.2 181.1 208.2
VPS 401.7 452.4 545.6 661.7 787.8 937.5
oE-% 27.2% 26.3% 26.6% 24.8% 23.0% 22.2%
ividen Payout ratio 25.1% 45.9% 24.0% 45.1% 23.8% 20.7%
/BV 6.5 6.1 5.3 3.6 4.4 3.7
/E 24.0 23.2 19.7 14.6 19.2 16.7
-
8/13/2019 India Equity Analytics for today - Buy Stocks of Reliance Industries Limited with Target Price Rs 1040
13/20
Hindalco Industries Ltd.
124
132
NA7%
NA
500440
25497
17848
6284
1M 1yr YTD
solute -1.3 11.3 8.7
l. to Nifty -2.7 0.5 0.0
2QFY14 1QFY14 4QFY13
omoters 37.0 37.0 32.1
24.9 24.8 24.5
14.4 14.3 15.5
hers 23.7 23.9 28.0
Financials : Q2FY14 Y-o-Y % Q-o-Q % Q2FY13 Q1FY1
Net Revenue 6585 4.6 5.1 6296 626EBITDA 540 4.8 12.8 515 47
Depriciation 196 13.7 7.3 173 18
Tax 83 -5.9 -17.4 88 10
PAT 357 -0.5 -24.7 359 47(In Cr
1
erage Daily Volume (Nos.)
The PM's Project Monitoring Group has sorted out issues with regards to Hindalco's 700
Cr rupees Utkal Alumina refinery among others. On a medium-term view we would st
be positive on Hindalco Industries. As the improvement happens across economie
whether it is US, Europe, to an extent in China also we think Hindalco is very we
positioned.
arket Data
E Code
HINDALCOE Symbol
wk Range H/L
kt Capital (Rs Crores)
137/83
side
ange from Previous
ompany Update
MP
rget Price
evious Target Price
Novelis, leader in aluminum rolling and recycling completed $400 millionexpansio
program in South Korea. The expansion of its Yeongju and Ulsan plants increases th
company's production capacity in the region by more than 50 percent to approximate
one million metric tons of aluminum sheet per year.Hindalco has expanded its smeltincapacity by 359kt via Mahan greenfield project.Aruna Sundarajan is back and set t
take charge as Industries new additional chief secretary and looks forwar
optimistically for a better industrial climate focusing on young entrepreneurship.
Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report.
ock Performance-%
are Holding Pattern-%
yr Forward P/B
Source - Comapany/EastWind Research
Hindalco Industries, the world's largest Aluminium rolling company, disappointed wit
the second quarter net profit declining marginally to Rs 357Cr from Rs 358.9Cr y-o-ydented by higher finance cost. Bottom line was largely supported by other income
otherwise profit would have much lower than currently reported. Other income, whic
included Rs61 Cr non-recurring income and dividend of Rs 100 Cr from subsidiaries, mor
than doubled to Rs 280Cr in three-month period ended September 2013 from Rs 132.4C
in a year ago period. Net sales increased over 2 percent year-on-year to Rs 6245Cr durin
September quarter. EBITDA climbed 3 percent Y-o-Y to Rs 481Cr while operating prof
margin improved marginally to 7.7 percent from 7.63 percent during the same period o
higher inventory. Finance cost surged 6.5 times on a yearly basis to Rs 183Cr in th
quarter gone by, given higher average borrowing. Revenue from Aluminium businesgrew 11 percent y-o-y to Rs 2,342.6Cr, driven by higher volumes, but EBIT margin of th
same business declined to 7.1 percent during 2QFY14
During the same period, total metal production increased to 1,32,000 ton (excludin
Mahan production) from 1,28,000 ton while alumina production (excluding Utkal alumin
production) rose to 3,34,000 ton from 3,28,000 ton y-o-y, but sequentially it was dow
from 3,48,000 ton due to a planned ramp down at one of refineries. In case of coppe
business, revenue slipped 2.2 percent Y-o-Y to Rs 3,974Cr in the quarter gone by, but it
EBIT margin expanded to 6 percent. Cathode production declined to 77,000 ton from
78,000 ton y-o-y.
fty
"Buy"24 Dec' 13
Narnolia Securities Ltd,
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
Mar-06
Sep-06
Mar-07
Sep-07
Mar-08
Sep-08
Mar-09
Sep-09
Mar-10
Sep-10
Mar-11
Sep-11
Mar-12
Sep-12
Mar-13
Sep-13
PRICE BV 1x 2x
3x 4x P/BV
-
8/13/2019 India Equity Analytics for today - Buy Stocks of Reliance Industries Limited with Target Price Rs 1040
14/20
LME Price/Ton
LME Price/Ton
FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13
6761 7965 9041 8779
11752 15902 17575 17305
1963 2004 1822 930
599 602 802 768
138254 74799 178990 225246
FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14E
72078 80821 80193 86000
431 783 1012 1360
72509 81604 81205 87360
64102 72856 72395 78572
7976 7965 7798 7428
2725 2645 2822 2700
1839 1758 2079 2500
964 786 886 825
366 211 -20 057 -50 16 0
2456 3397 3027 2763
8.5 10.6 8.6 7.3
14
Source - Comapany/EastWind Research
Source - Comapany/EastWind Research
Hindalco Industries Ltd.
PERATING MATRIX
uminium Revenue
L PERFORMANCE
uminium Results
opper Results
pital Employed
ut Look : Although Hindalco has expanded its aluminium capacity recently, low
uminium prices, sticky costs, delay in commencement of mining from captive blocks
d higher interest and depreciation costs may hit its profitability. In the near-term,
ere is lack of clarity over production from the Mahan coal block for its Mahan smelter.
ithout captive coal block, the Mahan smelter is expected to face cost pressures,sulting in lower return ratios over FY2013-15.So Clearance of Mahan coal block will be
ost awaited trigger for Hindalco. Mean While on the Positive Side We can expect 7%
owth on the Stock with a Target Price of Rs.132.
penditure
ITDA
epriciation
opper Revenue
et Revenue from Operation
her Income
tal Income
Source - Comapany/EastWind Research
inority Interestare in Profit/(Loss) of Associates
AT
OE%
x
terest Cost
Narnolia Securities Ltd,
90000
95000
100000
105000
110000
115000
120000
Jan-13
Feb-13
Mar-13
Apr-13
May-13
Jun-13
Jul-13
Aug-13
Sep-13
Oct-13
Nov-13
Dec-13
Primary Aluminium
340000
360000
380000
400000
420000
440000
460000
480000
Jan-13
Feb-13
Mar-13
Apr-13
May-13
Jun-13
Jul-13
Aug-13
Sep-13
Oct-13
Nov-13
Dec-13
Copper
-
8/13/2019 India Equity Analytics for today - Buy Stocks of Reliance Industries Limited with Target Price Rs 1040
15/20
FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13
191 191 191 191
21346 28824 31179 34597
21545 29023 31911 35330
10763 13736 37127 4985713236 13956 3731 6442
3901 4138 5289 5691
9742 12980 11052 9613
1016 1077 1377 1610
69235 84376 101402 120590
7876 12272 15429 16435
21124 20133 19871 21490
5801 13131 22798 33831
1983 2035 3774 3170
11275 14096 13246 14332
6544 8000 8017 8952
2195 2556 3296 3770
1134 1164 2159 3257
69235 84376 101402 120590
FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13
1.6 1.4 0.8 0.5
20.5 12.8 17.7 15.8
10.8 11.1 9.9 11.2
16.0 18.0 13.7 12.0
1.9 2.0 1.6 1.8
FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13
5542 6929 8534 6852-598 -703 -932 -3874
4944 6226 7602 2978
-5448 -6710 -13220 -13765
428 825 6237 10278
-76 341 619 -510
15
Hindalco Industries Ltd.
Source - Comapany/EastWind Research
ade payables
ort-term provisions
tal liabilities
tangibles
sh and bank balances
ngible assets
pital work-in-progress
ng-term loans and advances
ventories
ade receivables
Source - Comapany/EastWind Research
S PERFORMANCE
are capital
serve & Surplus
tal equity
ng-term borrowingsort-term borrowings
ng-term provisions
sh from Operation
ort-term loans and advances
tal Assets
ATIOS
B
S
ebtor to Turnover%
editors to Turnover%
ventories to Turnover%
Source - Comapany/EastWind Research
ASH FLOWS
rading At :
anges In Working Capital
et Cash From Operation
sh From Investment
sh from Finance
et Cash Flow during year
Narnolia Securities Ltd,
0
20
40
60
80
10 0
12 0
14 0
16 0
0
1000
20003000
4000
5000
6000
7000
NIFTY HINDALCO
-
8/13/2019 India Equity Analytics for today - Buy Stocks of Reliance Industries Limited with Target Price Rs 1040
16/20
Persistent System.
-
1M 1yr YTD
bsolute 24.1 105.2 91.2
l. to Nifty 23 99.4 84.6
Current 1QFY14 4QFY13
omoters 38.96 38.96 38.96
15.28 14.84 12.39
I 21.23 19.31 21.59
hers 24.53 26.89 27.06
Financials
2QFY14 1QFY14 (QoQ)-% 2QFY13 (YoY)-%
Revenue 432.37 357.29 21.0 326.86 32.3
EBITDA 100.8 76.8 31.3 89.06 13.2
PAT 60.8 57.1 6.5 44.71 36.0
EBITDA Margin 23.3% 21.5% 180bps 27.2% (390bp
PAT Margin 14.1% 16.0% (190bps) 13.7% 40bps
Persistent Sytems management remains confident of FY14 with deal pipeline bei
strong and remains focused on increasing the share of IP-led revenues in its portfol
They expect to see more than 15% USD revenue growth for FY14E.
year forward P/E-x
Rs, Cro
(Source: Company/Eastwi
View and Valuation:The companysfocus is shifting greater proportion to IP led servic
and company has marquee clientele in cutting-edge technologies around clou
mobility, collaboration and analytics; witnessing faster growth. Considering t
companys premium valuation, we advice Book Profit on the stock. At a CMP of
1007, stock trades at 15.9x FY14E earnings. Our view could be change w
management guidance and post earnings of coming quarter.
Persistent's management suggests that deal pipeline are looking strong and seegood activity and traction in the market across the board. Its focus on some of new
technologies like cloud, analytics and mobility are gaining a lot of traction because
pickup in demand environment. The emerging themes, (CAMB) Cloud, Analyti
Mobility, and Big data could also see strong demand traction ahead. Because
actively investment in these themes, management is very confident to see healt
growth and also they expressed their confidence to beat the NASSCOM guidance (1
14% revenue growth for FY14E).
wk Range H/L 1023/477
Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report.
Clients Metrics:During the quarter, company added 2 clients at 32 under mediu
category( >$1mn to $3mn) and 1 client at 16 from large ( > $ 3Mn) . Revenue from top
client was improved from 21.2% (1QFY14) to 22.5% . DSO at 62days, almost
quarters low.
4029
erage Daily Volume 12139
Margin ramp up:During the quarter, Its EBITDA margin improved by 180bps to 23.3
positively impacted by currency gain(270bps), while during the quarter company wa
hike to its off shore employee at a range of 8-9% was impacted margin by 310 b
adversely. However, management expects to maintain margin at a range of 24-25% f
FY14E.
"Persistently innovating.."
MP 1007
rget Price 960
ompany update Book Profit We had initiated this stock at a CMP of Rs 526(on 16th
Feb 2013) and now, it achiev
its target of Rs 960. Despite better predictability of growth and attractive visibility
its expansion in new emerging verticals, we advice to book profit on the stock becau
of its premium valuation. However, sentiment could take a knock in the short ru
since investors may prefer paying a premium for stocks with better earnings visibilityange from Previous
Recently , Persistent System reported superlative set of numbers during the 2QFY
with 21%(QoQ) sales growth in INR term and 8.6%(QoQ) growth in USD term led
38%(QOQ) growth on the intellectual property (IP) revenues. PAT growth was at 6.5(QoQ).
With the potential revenue growth, strong deal pipeline and multi-year relationsh
with marquee clientele in the Infrastructure vertical, we expect for better earni
visibility across niche IT players.
fty
are Holding Pattern-%
6274
ock Performance
SE Symbol PERSISTENT
kt Capital (Rs Crores)
E Code 533179
arket Data
evious Target Price 890
pside -
"Book Profit"23rd Dec' 13
Narnolia Securities Ltd,
-
8/13/2019 India Equity Analytics for today - Buy Stocks of Reliance Industries Limited with Target Price Rs 1040
17/20
Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report.
Persistent S stem.
(Source: Company/Eastwi
inancials
(Source: Company/Eastwi
ating and Price Target Chart Updation Detail
Narnolia Securities Ltd,
s, in Cr. FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14E FY15E
ales 601.16 775.84 1000.3 1294.5 1657.54 2053.93
mployee Cost 368.74 481.62 599.05 719 895.07 1119.39
ost of technical professionals 0 30.67 41.68 54 82.88 102.70
ther expenses 86.05 105.24 135.2 218 290.07 379.98otal expenses 454.79 617.53 775.93 990.78 1268.02 1602.0
BITDA 146.37 158.31 224.37 303.72 389.52 451.86
epreciation 33.52 42.39 61.1 78 93.54 84.18
ther Income 11.23 34.44 34.44 34.44 66.30 71.89
BIT 112.85 115.92 163.27 225.44 295.98 367.68
nterest Cost 0 0 0.00 0.03 0.00 0.00
rofit (+)/Loss (-) Before Taxes 124.08 150.36 197.71 259.851 362.29 439.57
rovision for Taxes 9.05 10.62 55.09 75.37 108.69 131.87
et Profit (+)/Loss (-) 115.03 139.74 142.62 184.481 253.60 307.70
rowth-% (YoY)
ales 1.2% 29.1% 28.9% 29.4% 28.0% 23.9%
BITDA 60.2% 8.2% 41.7% 35.4% 28.3% 16.0%
AT 74.1% 21.5% 2.1% 29.4% 37.5% 21.3%xpenses on Sales-%
mployee Cost 61.3% 62.1% 59.9% 55.5% 54.0% 54.5%
ther expenses 14.3% 13.6% 13.5% 16.9% 17.5% 18.5%
ax rate 7.3% 7.1% 27.9% 29.0% 30.0% 30.0%
Margin-%
BITDA 24.3% 20.4% 22.4% 23.5% 23.5% 22.0%
BIT 18.8% 14.9% 16.3% 17.4% 17.9% 17.9%
AT 19.1% 18.0% 14.3% 14.3% 15.3% 15.0%
aluation:
MP 310 366.7 409.2 541 1007 1007
o of Share 4 4 4 4 4.00 4.00
W 639.0 747.1 840.5 1018.3 1234.4 1504.7
PS 28.8 34.9 35.7 46.1 63.4 76.9VPS 159.7 186.8 210.1 254.6 308.6 376.2
oE-% 18.0% 18.7% 17.0% 18.1% 20.5% 20.4%
/BV 1.9 2.0 1.9 2.1 3.3 2.7
/E 10.8 10.5 11.5 11.7 15.9 13.1
Date Update Detail CMP View Target P
16-Feb-13 Initiation 526 BUY 580
25-Jun-13 Company Update 499 BUY 580
7-May-13 Result Update 514 BUY 580
31-Jul-13 Result Update 522 BUY 58018-Sep-13 Company Update 573 BUY 642
26-Sep-13 Company Update 623 BUY 834
9-Oct-13 Company Update 682 BUY 834
22-Oct-13 Result Update 739 BUY 890
13-Dec-13 Company Update 876 BUY 960
23-Dec-13 Company Update 1007 Book Profit
-
8/13/2019 India Equity Analytics for today - Buy Stocks of Reliance Industries Limited with Target Price Rs 1040
18/20
Tech Mahindra
BUY
24%
1M 1yr YTD
bsolute 9.3 99 39.2
l. to Nifty 6.8 93 32.7
Current 1QFY14 4QFY13
omoters 36.46 47.17 47.41
32.59 26.79 27.34
I 15.13 15.83 16
hers 15.82 10.21 9.25
Financials
2QFY14 1QFY14 (QoQ)-% 2QFY13 (YoY)-%
Revenue 4771.5 4103.2 16.3 3523.7 35.4
EBITDA 1110.85 864.5 28.5 756.9 46.8
PAT 718.2 686.3 4.6 455.9 57.5
EBITDA Margin 23.3% 21.1% 220bps 21.5% 150bp
PAT Margin 15.1% 16.7% (160bps) 12.9% 220bp
Win- Win on all geographies: During the 2QFY14, winning trio was seen acro
geographies. US (contributes 33% on sales) grew by 8%, RoW (23% on sales) by 9.4
(QoQ). While Europe (contributes 44% on sales) was marginally up by 2.4%(QoQ) in U
term. Post earning management quoted for better outlook in Europe with grea
traction in Australia and Africa in near term.
All-rounder across all verticals: During the quarter, company reported 2.5% growth
Telecom, 4.7% growth in manufacturing, media including entertainment, BFSI a
others each in USD term. While Retail, Transport and Logistic snapped a larger grow
figure of 22% sequentially. The company is focusing on BFSI, manufacturing a
telecom.
BT on Slide: The management said revenues from British Telecom (BT) continued
slide. Those were 12% of consolidated revenues in the June quarter. It believes revenu
from BT will be under pressure.year forward P/E-x
Rs, Cro
(Source: Company/Eastwi
Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report.
Post merger with Satyam, strong demand traction in Telecom (Non BT) has improv
and company's attractive deal win ratios make us optimistic view on the stock. A
CMP of Rs 1691, relatively the stock is trading at a fair valuation, 12.8x of FY1
earnings (at USD of Rs60/59.5 for FY14E/FY15E). We maintain BUY on the stock wa price target of Rs 2330 (revised from Rs 1875).
are Holding Pattern-%
ock Performance
View and Valuation:Recently, companys management explained its 6-pillar strate
i.e., selling 6 service lines of IT, infr- management, network management, secur
services, value added services and services such as analytics to telcos. Currently, non
services contribute 33% of telecom revenues for the company. Further, it is focusing
segments that are growing faster such as platforms, enterprise, mobility and NMA
(networks, mobility, analytics, cloud and security).
arket Data
6274
kt Capital (Rs Crores) 42991
"On a stronger footing.."
ompany update
MP 1844
rget Price 2330
Broad-based performance with positive outlook, positive view retained;
The company remains confident on demand and expects client budgets to remain
the same levels in FY15E. It announced 2 large deals in the enterprise solutio
(previously Mahindra Satyam) and has a healthy deal pipeline.evious Target Price 1875
Green flag on Margin front:EBITDA margin expanded 222 basis points sequentially
23.3% aided by a weaker rupee. Despite sweet flavor on margin front, management
still cautious for coming quarter due to Furloughs .
Recently, following the footsteps of other larger giants such as TCS and Infy, Te
Mahindra revealed its earning story better than street expectations for 2QFY14. Sa
grew by 16.3% (QoQ) in INR term led by healthy growth across all segments, vertic
and geographies. In USD term, sales grew 4.7% (QoQ) better than all nearest pee
barring TCS. PAT was up by 4.7% (QoQ) adversely impacted by lower other income a
forex loss of Rs 26 Cr during the quarter. The company had forex gains of Rs 134 Cr
the June quarter.
E Code 532755
SE Symbol TECHM
wk Range H/L 1872/895
fty
ange from Previous
pside 26%
erage Daily Volume 191827
"BUY"23rd Dec' 13
Narnolia Securities Ltd,
-
8/13/2019 India Equity Analytics for today - Buy Stocks of Reliance Industries Limited with Target Price Rs 1040
19/20
inancials
Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report.
Tech Mahindra.
(Source: Company/Eastwi
perating Metrics
Narnolia Securities Ltd,
ient contribution to revenue-% 1QFY13 2QFY13 3QFY13 4QFY13 1QFY14 2QFY1
ustomer Active 484.00 475.00 475.00 516.00 567.00 576.00
op 10 clients 50.0% 51.0% 50.0% 50.0% 49.0% 48.0%
op 5 clients 40.0% 41.0% 39.0% 37.0% 37.0% 36.0%op client 17.0% 14.0% 15.0% 13.0% 12.0% 12.0%
evenue mix - onsite/offshore (%)
nsite 48.0% 48.0% 48.0% 48.0% 51.0% 51.0%
ffshore 52.0% 52.0% 52.0% 52.0% 49.0% 49.0%
mployee Metrics
tilisation % 75.0% 74.0% 76.0% 77.0% 76.0% 75.0%
ttrition % 17.0% 16.0% 16.0% 16.0% 15.0% 16.0%
s, Cr FY12 FY13 FY14E FY15E FY16E
et Sales(mn)-USD 1157 2633 3124.01 3592.61 4023.7
et Sales 11702.4 14332.0 18744.06 21376.04 24343.5
mployee Cost 6591.9 8099.5 10309.24 11756.82 13388.9peration and other expenses 2210.1 2287.3 3373.93 3847.69 4381.8
ubcontracting Cost 948.6 882.0 1405.80 1603.20 1947.4
otal Expenses 9750.6 11268.8 13683.17 15604.51 17770.7
BITDA 1951.8 3063.2 5060.90 5771.53 6572.7
epreciation 319.0 389.6 509.54 581.08 661.75
ther Income 501.3 212.2 281.16 213.76 243.44
xtra Ordinery Items 36.9 -160.1 -209.39 -238.79 -121.7
BIT 1632.80 2673.60 4551.36 5190.45 5911.0
nterest Cost 107.3 92.1 98.04 91.37 86.93
BT 2063.7 2633.6 4525.09 5074.05 5945.7
ax 228.9 647.9 1176.5 1319.3 1545.9
AT 1834.8 1985.7 3348.6 3754.8 4399.9
rowth-%
ales-USD 2.7% 127.6% 18.6% 15.0% 12.0%ales 13.8% 22.5% 30.8% 14.0% 13.9%
BITDA 11.9% 56.9% 65.2% 14.0% 13.9%
AT 11.9% 8.2% 68.6% 12.1% 17.2%
Margin -%
BITDA 16.7% 21.4% 27.0% 27.0% 27.0%
BIT 14.0% 18.7% 24.3% 24.3% 24.3%
AT 15.7% 13.9% 17.9% 17.6% 18.1%
xpenses on Sales-%
mployee Cost 56.3% 56.5% 55.0% 55.0% 55.0%
ubcontracting Cost 8.1% 6.2% 7.5% 7.5% 8.0%
peration and other expenses 18.9% 16.0% 18.0% 18.0% 18.0%
ax rate 11.1% 24.6% 26.0% 26.0% 26.0%
aluation
MP 652.5 1081.7 1844 1844 1844o of Share 23.2 23.2 23.2 23.2 23.2
W 4815.8 5529.1 8741.77 12360.68 16624.6
PS 79.0 85.5 144.1 161.6 189.4
VPS 207.3 238.0 376.31 532.10 715.66
oE-% 38.1% 35.9% 38.3% 30.4% 26.5%
ividen Payout-% 3.2% 3.0% 4.1% 3.6% 3.1%
/BV 3.1 4.5 4.9 3.5 2.6
/E 8.3 12.7 12.79 11.41 9.74
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8/13/2019 India Equity Analytics for today - Buy Stocks of Reliance Industries Limited with Target Price Rs 1040
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