india | agriculture sector update farmer channel … · our channel checks reveal higher crop...

13
Global Markets Research Elara Securities (India) Private Limited Sumant Kumar[email protected] +91 22 6164 8503 Anuja Barve [email protected]+91 22 6164 8541 We interacted with 50 farmers across North, Central and West India to assess sentiments and profitability across crops. Our channel checks reveal higher crop yields over 2015-16 than in the past two years. However, pests, unexpected rains and hailstorms remain key risks until harvesting next month. Labour cost will rise by 20-30% across pan-India (ex-South India), thereby hiking the cost of cultivation by 12-15%. However, the benefits of operating leverage on higher yield and MSP of produce will raise farm incomes. Most farmers are likely to spend on fertilizers, agrochemicals and seeds during the upcoming Rabi season. Agrochemical companies, such as Dhanuka Agritech, UPL, PI Industries, Insecticides India, Rallis India and Bayer CropScience (Not Rated), would be key beneficiaries in H2FY17. Among seeds firms, Kaveri seeds (NR) & Monsanto India (NR) and among fertilisers, Tata Chemicals, Coromandel International (NR) & Chambal Fertilizers (NR) would also benefit. Crop yield to improve; however risks persist Farmers say yield across key Kharif crops, namely rice, oilseeds, cotton, pulses and maize, is expected to improve for 2015-16, barring the risk of pests, unexpected rains and hailstorms during the upcoming harvesting month.. Our pan-India survey (ex-South India) underscores yield across key crops, namely rice, oilseeds, cotton, pulses and maize, is expected to improve for 2015-16. Rice yield is likely to rise by 3% YoY to INR 2,461 per hectare. Cotton yield may increase by ~10.5% YoY to INR 510 per hectare, due to higher yield from Gujarat, Telangana and Maharashtra. Farmers say cotton yield in Gujarat will be higher due to lower rainfall in September. Soyabean yield (60% of oilseeds in acreage terms) is likely to rise significantly, led by Maharashtra & MP. Vegetable crops in Uttar Pradesh (UP) and Bihar were affected by Monsoon delay and unseasonal rainfall. Jowar and Bajra yield in Rajasthan is likely to improve YoY. However, Moong crop yield was hit by ~30-50% by excess rainfall. Tur (Arhar) yield is likely to rise ~7% YoY. Operational cost increase on rising labour cost Our recent channel checks show cost of cultivation has inched up by 12-15% YoY on a pan-India level over 2015- 16, driven by higher labour costs (30-36% of total cost of cultivation for all major crops and 20-33% of farmer revenue). Wages surged by 20-30% across India except in Gujarat, due to migration to nearby cities in the construction industry. Maharashtra and Punjab saw a higher jump in labour cost of 30-40% YoY while UP, Bihar and Rajasthan were up 20-25% YoY. Madhya Pradesh (MP) saw labour cost rise by 10-15% YoY. Cost of tilling the land with a plough in Rajasthan was up by 20% YoY while Bihar jumped by 15-17% YoY. Higher yield and rise in MSP to drive up farm income Farm income is likely to improve across key crops, such as rice, soyabean, maize, pulses and cotton. This is due to the benefits of operating leverage on expected higher yield on 1) better rainfall, 2) lower cost of irrigation, 3) a decline in fertilizer prices, 4) a 4-5% MSP hike across key crops, 5) a 12- 14% MSP increase in pulses, and 6) a shift towards more profitable crops. We assume the labor cost for 2016E to increase by ~10% and fixed cost and other operational expenses by ~5%. We estimate farm income in paddy crops (~37% of normal area of cultivation) at the EBITDA level in 2016 will jump by ~16% YoY to INR ~10,000 per hectare at the pan-India level. An expected increase in yield, a MSP rise of 4% YoY and the benefits of operating leverage (fixed cost per hectare at ~INR17,000) are key reasons behind higher income from paddy crops. Farm income in soyabean (oilseeds) is likely to improve significantly to INR 6,700 per hectare from an estimated loss of INR 360 per hectare over 2014-15. An expected increase in cotton prices by ~20% YoY with a ~10% higher yield in Maharashtra and Telangana (both states were hit by the drought in 2015) will drive profit of cotton crop at the EBITDA level by 7.7x YoY to ~INR 20,000 per hectare (same as the 2014 levels). Maize profitability is expected to grow ~9% YoY to INR 3,200 per hectare. Profit from Tur (Arhar) is likely to rise only 5% to INR 9,800 per hectare on ~3% YoY lower prices. We expect sugarcane profitability at the EBITDA level to decline ~7% to ~INR 53,000 per hectare on flat yield and prices. Farm spending priority remains the Rabi season Stagnating or falling farm incomes for the past two drought-hit years have taken a toll on farmers. While a majority are undecided about their spending priorities: they remain largely committed to: 1) investments in current agri activities & the upcoming Rabi crop season, 2) children’s education, and 3) surplus over discretionary goods (tractors, personal vehicles & housing). India | Agriculture 23 September 2016 Sector Update Farmer Channel checks Key Financials Company Rating Mcap CMP Target EV/EBITDA (x) P/E (x) ROE (%) INR bn USD mn (INR) (INR) FY15 FY16 FY17E FY18E FY15 FY16 FY17E FY18E FY15 FY16 FY17E FY18E Dhanuka Agritech Buy 36 533 711 823 27.1 25.5 20.0 16.0 33.5 33.1 28.0 22.2 28.8 24.2 24.5 26.3 Insecticides India Buy 11 163 525 604 12.6 13.8 10.6 8.5 19.8 27.6 18.5 13.9 20.4 11.2 13.5 15.9 PI Industries Accumulate 113 1,687 821 835 30.5 26.1 21.0 17.8 46.3 37.5 30.3 25.4 31.1 29.4 28.4 26.9 Rallis India Reduce 44 660 227 222 17.6 20.9 16.6 14.1 28.1 30.9 25.7 21.8 20.9 17.1 17.9 18.8 Tata Chemicals Buy 141 2,113 553 563 10.0 10.2 8.4 7.2 17.7 18.1 14.1 11.4 14.4 13.2 15.2 16.8 UPL Buy 347 5,198 684 759 13.5 12.0 9.9 8.8 26.3 25.2 18.5 15.9 23.8 21.8 24.8 23.6 Note: 1 USD = INR 66.7; Pricing as on 22 September 2016; Source: Company, Elara Securities Estimate

Upload: vannhi

Post on 19-Aug-2018

216 views

Category:

Documents


0 download

TRANSCRIPT

Page 1: India | Agriculture Sector Update Farmer Channel … · Our channel checks reveal higher crop yields over ... of cultivation by 12-15%. However, ... Pulse, Oil seeds Rice & Cotton

Glo

ba

l M

ark

ets

Re

sea

rch

Elara Securities (India) Private Limited

Sumant Kumar•[email protected] • +91 22 6164 8503

Anuja Barve •[email protected]• +91 22 6164 8541

We interacted with 50 farmers across North, Central and

West India to assess sentiments and profitability across

crops. Our channel checks reveal higher crop yields over

2015-16 than in the past two years. However, pests,

unexpected rains and hailstorms remain key risks until

harvesting next month. Labour cost will rise by 20-30%

across pan-India (ex-South India), thereby hiking the cost

of cultivation by 12-15%. However, the benefits of

operating leverage on higher yield and MSP of produce

will raise farm incomes. Most farmers are likely to spend

on fertilizers, agrochemicals and seeds during the

upcoming Rabi season. Agrochemical companies, such as

Dhanuka Agritech, UPL, PI Industries, Insecticides India,

Rallis India and Bayer CropScience (Not Rated), would be

key beneficiaries in H2FY17. Among seeds firms, Kaveri

seeds (NR) & Monsanto India (NR) and among fertilisers,

Tata Chemicals, Coromandel International (NR) &

Chambal Fertilizers (NR) would also benefit.

Crop yield to improve; however risks persist

Farmers say yield across key Kharif crops, namely rice,

oilseeds, cotton, pulses and maize, is expected to improve

for 2015-16, barring the risk of pests, unexpected rains

and hailstorms during the upcoming harvesting month..

Our pan-India survey (ex-South India) underscores yield

across key crops, namely rice, oilseeds, cotton, pulses and

maize, is expected to improve for 2015-16. Rice yield is

likely to rise by 3% YoY to INR 2,461 per hectare. Cotton

yield may increase by ~10.5% YoY to INR 510 per hectare,

due to higher yield from Gujarat, Telangana and

Maharashtra. Farmers say cotton yield in Gujarat will be

higher due to lower rainfall in September. Soyabean yield

(60% of oilseeds in acreage terms) is likely to rise

significantly, led by Maharashtra & MP. Vegetable crops

in Uttar Pradesh (UP) and Bihar were affected by

Monsoon delay and unseasonal rainfall. Jowar and Bajra

yield in Rajasthan is likely to improve YoY. However,

Moong crop yield was hit by ~30-50% by excess rainfall.

Tur (Arhar) yield is likely to rise ~7% YoY.

Operational cost increase on rising labour cost

Our recent channel checks show cost of cultivation has

inched up by 12-15% YoY on a pan-India level over 2015-

16, driven by higher labour costs (30-36% of total cost of

cultivation for all major crops and 20-33% of farmer

revenue). Wages surged by 20-30% across India except in

Gujarat, due to migration to nearby cities in the

construction industry. Maharashtra and Punjab saw a

higher jump in labour cost of 30-40% YoY while UP, Bihar

and Rajasthan were up 20-25% YoY. Madhya Pradesh

(MP) saw labour cost rise by 10-15% YoY. Cost of tilling

the land with a plough in Rajasthan was up by 20% YoY

while Bihar jumped by 15-17% YoY.

Higher yield and rise in MSP to drive up farm income

Farm income is likely to improve across key crops, such as

rice, soyabean, maize, pulses and cotton. This is due to the

benefits of operating leverage on expected higher yield on

1) better rainfall, 2) lower cost of irrigation, 3) a decline in

fertilizer prices, 4) a 4-5% MSP hike across key crops, 5) a 12-

14% MSP increase in pulses, and 6) a shift towards more

profitable crops. We assume the labor cost for 2016E to

increase by ~10% and fixed cost and other operational

expenses by ~5%. We estimate farm income in paddy crops

(~37% of normal area of cultivation) at the EBITDA level in

2016 will jump by ~16% YoY to INR ~10,000 per hectare at

the pan-India level. An expected increase in yield, a MSP rise

of 4% YoY and the benefits of operating leverage (fixed cost

per hectare at ~INR17,000) are key reasons behind higher

income from paddy crops. Farm income in soyabean

(oilseeds) is likely to improve significantly to INR 6,700 per

hectare from an estimated loss of INR 360 per hectare over

2014-15. An expected increase in cotton prices by ~20%

YoY with a ~10% higher yield in Maharashtra and

Telangana (both states were hit by the drought in 2015) will

drive profit of cotton crop at the EBITDA level by 7.7x YoY to

~INR 20,000 per hectare (same as the 2014 levels). Maize

profitability is expected to grow ~9% YoY to INR 3,200 per

hectare. Profit from Tur (Arhar) is likely to rise only 5% to INR

9,800 per hectare on ~3% YoY lower prices. We expect

sugarcane profitability at the EBITDA level to decline ~7% to

~INR 53,000 per hectare on flat yield and prices.

Farm spending priority remains the Rabi season

Stagnating or falling farm incomes for the past two

drought-hit years have taken a toll on farmers. While a

majority are undecided about their spending priorities:

they remain largely committed to: 1) investments in

current agri activities & the upcoming Rabi crop season,

2) children’s education, and 3) surplus over discretionary

goods (tractors, personal vehicles & housing).

India | Agriculture 23 September 2016

Sector Update

Farmer Channel checks

Key Financials Company Rating Mcap CMP Target EV/EBITDA (x) P/E (x) ROE (%)

INR bn USD mn (INR) (INR) FY15 FY16 FY17E FY18E FY15 FY16 FY17E FY18E FY15 FY16 FY17E FY18E

Dhanuka Agritech Buy 36 533 711 823 27.1 25.5 20.0 16.0 33.5 33.1 28.0 22.2 28.8 24.2 24.5 26.3

Insecticides India Buy 11 163 525 604 12.6 13.8 10.6 8.5 19.8 27.6 18.5 13.9 20.4 11.2 13.5 15.9

PI Industries Accumulate 113 1,687 821 835 30.5 26.1 21.0 17.8 46.3 37.5 30.3 25.4 31.1 29.4 28.4 26.9

Rallis India Reduce 44 660 227 222 17.6 20.9 16.6 14.1 28.1 30.9 25.7 21.8 20.9 17.1 17.9 18.8

Tata Chemicals Buy 141 2,113 553 563 10.0 10.2 8.4 7.2 17.7 18.1 14.1 11.4 14.4 13.2 15.2 16.8

UPL Buy 347 5,198 684 759 13.5 12.0 9.9 8.8 26.3 25.2 18.5 15.9 23.8 21.8 24.8 23.6

Note: 1 USD = INR 66.7; Pricing as on 22 September 2016; Source: Company, Elara Securities Estimate

Page 2: India | Agriculture Sector Update Farmer Channel … · Our channel checks reveal higher crop yields over ... of cultivation by 12-15%. However, ... Pulse, Oil seeds Rice & Cotton

Farmer Channel checks

2 Elara Securities (India) Private Limited

Exhibit 1: Key takeaways from our farmer interactions

States Maharashtra Punjab & Haryana

Uttar Pradesh Bihar Madhya Pradesh Rajasthan Gujarat

Key crops Rice, Cotton, Coarse Cereals, Pulse, Oil seeds

Rice & Cotton Rice, Coarse cereals, Pulse, Oilseeds

Rice , Maize, Sugarcane

Rice, Cotton, Coarse cereals, Pulses, Oilseeds

Cotton, Coarse cereals, Pulses & Oilseeds

Cotton, soybean, cereals Pulses, Oilseeds

Cost of labour YoY (%)

30-40 30-40 20-25 20-25 10-15 20-25 No substantial increase in cost

Yield expectation

Positive for soyabean & rice, Lower yield for sugarcane

Positive for rice

Positive for rice, vegetable crops damaged on excess rainfall

Positive for rice, vegetable crops damaged on excess rainfall

Positive for soyabean

Better yield for bajra & jowar, moong crop affected by ~30-50% on higher rainfall

Cotton yield likely to be better

Spending priority

1. Investment for agricultural activities

2. Children’s education

1. Investment for agricultural activities

2. House

3. Four-wheelers

1. Investment for agricultural activities

2. Marriage and children’s education

1. Investment for agricultural activities

2. Marriage and children’s education

1. Investment for agricultural activities

2. Children’s education

1. Investment for agricultural activities

2. Investment for Rabi season

3. Marriage and education

1. Investment for agricultural activities

2. Investment for Rabi season

3. Buying tractors

Source: Elara Securities Research

Exhibit 2: Crop-wise sowing contribution for key states on a pan-India Level

Note: Rainfall as on 22 September 2016, Source: IMD, Ministry of Agriculture, Elara Securities Research

Tamil

Nadu

Kerala

Karnataka

Andhra

Pradesh

Maharashtra

Madhya Pradesh

Rajasthan

Gujarat

Uttar Pradesh

Punjab

Bihar

Orissa

JharkhandWest

Bengal

SikkimArunachalPradesh

Assam

Tripura

Meghalaya

Mizoram

Manipur

Nagaland

Goa

Pondicherry

Uttaranchal

Jammu

&

Kashmir

Haryana

HimachalPradesh

Delhi

Chhattisgarh

Telangana

15

9 8

2

Ric

e

Co

ars

e

ce

rea

ls

Pu

lse

s

Oils

ee

ds

(%) 8

4 5

Ric

e

Ma

ize

Su

garc

an

e

(%)

5 5 8

12

35

Ric

e

Co

tto

n

Co

ars

e

ce

rea

ls

Pu

lse

s

Oils

ee

ds

(%)

7

4

Ric

e

Co

tto

n

(%)

Excess rainfall (20% or more)

Normal rainfall(-19% to -19%)

Deficient (-59% to -20%)

4

34

13

20 20

Ric

e

Co

tto

n

Co

ars

e

ce

rea

ls

Pu

lse

s

Oils

ee

ds

(%)

22

6 5

14

Co

tto

n

Co

ars

e

ce

rea

ls

Pu

lse

s

Oils

ee

ds

(%)

4

31

22

11

Co

tto

n

Co

ars

e

ce

rea

ls

Pu

lse

s

Oils

ee

ds

(%)

3

5

3

Ric

e

Co

tto

n

Co

ars

e

ce

rea

ls

(%)

Page 3: India | Agriculture Sector Update Farmer Channel … · Our channel checks reveal higher crop yields over ... of cultivation by 12-15%. However, ... Pulse, Oil seeds Rice & Cotton

Farmer Channel checks

Ag

ricu

ltu

re

3 3 Elara Securities (India) Private Limited

Exhibit 3: Rice - normal area - sowing Exhibit 4: Cotton - normal area - sowing

Source: Agriculture Ministry Source: Agriculture Ministry

Exhibit 5: Coarse cereals - normal area - sowing Exhibit 6: Oil seeds - normal area - sowing

Source: Agriculture Ministry Source: Agriculture Ministry

Exhibit 7: Maize - normal area - sowing Exhibit 8: Pulses - normal area - sowing

Source: Agriculture Ministry Source: Agriculture Ministry

Uttar Pradesh5.8

West Bengal 4.1

Odisha3.8

Chhattisgarh3.8 Bihar

3.1 Punjab

2.8

Assam2.1

Madhya Pradesh

1.8

Andhra Pradesh

1.6

Tamil Nadu1.6

Maharashtra 1.5

Jharkhand1.3

Haryana1.2

Karnataka1.1

Telangana1.1 Others

2.5

(mn hectares)

Maharashtra 4.1

Gujarat2.7

Telangana0.1

Karnataka0.6

Madhya Pradesh

0.6

Haryana0.6

Andhra Pradesh

0.6

Punjab0.5

Rajasthan0.4

Tamil Nadu0.1

Others1.6

(mn hectares)

Rajasthan6.3

Maharashtra2.6

Karnataka2.4

Uttar Pradesh1.8

Madhya Pradesh

1.6

Gujarat1.2

Haryana0.6

Telangana0.6

Tamil Nadu0.5

Other2.4

(mn hectares)

Madhya Pradesh

6.4

Maharashtra3.6

Gujarat2.5

Rajasthan2.0

Andhra Pradesh

1.2

Uttar Pradesh0.4

Telangana0.3

Karnataka 1.0

Others0.6

(mn hectares)

Karnataka1.2

Rajasthan1.0

Madheya pradesh

0.9

Maharashtra0.7

Uttar Pradesh0.7

Telangana0.5

Gujarat0.4

Jammu & Kashmir

0.3

Himachal Pradesh

0.3

Bihar 0.3

Jharkhand0.2

Tamil Nadu0.2

Other0.7

(mn hectares)

Rajasthan2.4

Maharashtra2.2

Karnataka1.3

Madhya Pradesh

1.3

Uttar Pradesh0.9

Telangana0.5

Odisha0.5

Gujarat0.5

Tamil Nadu0.2

Jharkhand0.3

Chhattisgarh0.2

Andhra Pradesh

0.3Other

0.3

(mn hectares)

Page 4: India | Agriculture Sector Update Farmer Channel … · Our channel checks reveal higher crop yields over ... of cultivation by 12-15%. However, ... Pulse, Oil seeds Rice & Cotton

Farmer Channel checks

4 Elara Securities (India) Private Limited

Kharif sowing reaches 100%

Pulses, coarse cereals, rice drive up sowing by 3.6%

Although cumulative rainfall was lower by 5% to long

period average (LPA) at 766.1mn hectares (mnh), up to 14

September 2016, sowing surged to ~100% of normal area

coverage as on 16 September, backed by normal rainfall

during the peak sowing period of July-August. Kharif crops

sowing in FY17 was higher by ~3.6% YoY to 105.9mnh as

on 16 September 2016, as per the Ministry of Agriculture.

Crop sowing was 4.4% higher than normal of

corresponding week at 101.5mnh. Rice sowing saw growth

of 2.8% YoY to 38.2mnh (38.0mnh as on 9 September),

pulses surged 28.9% YoY to 14.5mnh (14.4mnh as on 9

September) and sugarcane was down 7.7% YoY to 4.6mnh.

Sowing of coarse cereals rose 3.2% YoY to 18.9mnh,

oilseeds up 2.8% YoY to 18.8mnh while cotton sowing

lower by 11.3% YoY to 10.2mnh (10.2mnh as on 9

September).

Pulses sowing rises significantly in most states

Higher MSP coupled with better farm economics & lower

profitability in cotton on increased incidences of pest

attacks have encouraged farmers to shift to pulses. The

government has announced a bonus of INR 425 per

quintal for Kharif pulses, namely arhar (tur), urad and

moong to protect farmers from cheaper imports and

control price hikes. Pulses sowing as on 16 September

2016 was 133% of normal area coverage of 10.9mnh. It

surged 28.9% YoY to 14.5mnh. There was surplus of

4.0mnh compared to normal of corresponding week at

~10.6mnh. Higher sowing was reported from Karnataka

(1.8mnha, up 40.5% YoY), Rajasthan (3.3mnh, a surge of

27.9% YoY), Maharashtra (2.6mnh, an increase of 41.9%

YoY), Madhya Pradesh (2.1mnh, up 23.2% YoY),

Telangana (0.6mnh, a sharp rise of 76.8% YoY), Gujarat

(0.7mnh, surged by 72.0% YoY), Andhra Pradesh

(0.4mnh, up 53.9% YoY) and Jharkhand (0.4mnh, up

43.5% YoY). Lower sowing was reported only in Uttar

Pradesh (1.0mnh, down 7.4% YoY).

Higher rice sowing in most states

Rice sowing as on 16 September 2016 reached almost

97% of the normal coverage area of 39.2mnh. As on 16

September 2016, rice sowing was higher by 2.8% YoY to

38.2mnh. There was a surplus of 0.9mnh YoY compared

to normal of corresponding week at 37.3mnh. Higher

rice sowing was reported from West Bengal (4.2mnh, up

9.8% YoY), Haryana (1.3mnh up 5.6% YoY), Madhya

Pradesh (2.3mnh, up 11.7% YoY), Punjab (3.0mnh, an

increase of 1.2% YoY), Maharashtra (1.5mnh, a rise of

3.8% YoY), Telangana (0.6mnh, up 10.1% YoY),

Jharkhand (1.7mnh, an increase of 5.8% YoY), Bihar (flat

at 3.3mnh) and Tamil Nadu (0.3mnh, an increase of 0.6%

YoY). Less rice was sown in Assam (2.1mnh, a fall of 1.7%

YoY) and Karnataka (0.8mnh, a cut of 3.3% YoY).

Cotton sowing lower in almost all states

Cotton sowing as on 16 September 2016 was at 85% of

the normal area coverage of 12.0mnh. The shortage in

cotton sowing increased from 11.0% YoY as on 9

September 2016 to 11.3% YoY as on 16 September to

10.2mnh. However, the shortfall was at 1.6mnh (13.2%

lower) vs normal of corresponding week at ~11.8mnh. In

Madhya Pradesh, it increased 9.5% YoY to 0.6mnh.

Lower sowing was reported in Maharashtra (3.8mnh, a

drop of 0.5% YoY), Gujarat (2.4mnh, a dip of 13.8% YoY),

Telangana (1.2mnh, a cut of 26.5% YoY), Rajasthan

(0.4mnh, down by 5.3% YoY), Haryana (0.5mnh, a

decline of 14.3% YoY), Andhra Pradesh (0.4mnh, a drop

of 29.6% YoY), Punjab (0.3mnh, down 43.1% YoY) and

Karnataka (0.5mnh, a drop of 10.4% YoY).

Pests, Monsoon delay impact cotton sowing

The fear of infestation of White Fly in the north zone

(Punjab & Haryana) and Pink Boll Worm in the central &

south zones and a delay in the Monsoon were key

reasons for lower sowing acreage of cotton. While

cotton sowing has seen a major shift towards non-BT

cotton, with ~80.0% YoY growth to 1.7mnh, sowing

acreage improved from ~8.4% to ~17.0% of total area as

on 16 September 2016. Higher non-BT cotton sowing

was reported in Gujarat (increased from 5% as on 9

September 2016 to 20% as on 16 September 2016),

Maharashtra (from 10% to 15%), Karnataka (from 17.1%

to 35.0%), Haryana (from 10.2% to 26.9%), Rajasthan

(from 12.3% to 35.0%) and Punjab (from 1.3% to 5.1%).

However, BT cotton sowing, with a 19.6% YoY decline in

sowing acreage to 8.5mnh, fell from 91.6% to 83.0%.

Maize sowing rise continues by 9.0% YoY

Kharif maize sowing as on 16 September 2016 was

113% of the normal coverage area of 7.3mnh. Maize

sowing surged 9.0% YoY to 8.3mnh. There was surplus

of 0.9mnh compared to normal of corresponding week

at ~7.5mnh. Higher sowing was reported from

Karnataka (1.3mnha, up 21.5% YoY), Maharashtra

(0.9mnha, an increase of 21.7% YoY), Madhya Pradesh

(1.3mnha, a surge of 15.0% YoY), Bihar (0.4mnha, an

increase of 1.6% YoY), Telangana (0.6mnha, up 41.1%

YoY) and Gujarat (0.3mnha, up 7.6% YoY). Lower sowing

was reported in Uttar Pradesh (0.8mnha, a fall of ~4.6%

YoY), J&K (0.2mnha, down 4.0% YoY) and Rajasthan

(0.9mnha, down 4.0% YoY).

Coarse cereals up on higher sowing

Coarse cereals sowing as on 16 September 2016 reached

~94% of the normal coverage area of 20.0mnh. Coarse

cereals sowing surged 3.2% YoY to 18.9mnh. There was

surplus of 0.5mnh compared to normal of corresponding

week at ~18.3mnh. Higher sowing was reported from

Karnataka (2.2mnha, up 18.9% YoY), Maharashtra

Page 5: India | Agriculture Sector Update Farmer Channel … · Our channel checks reveal higher crop yields over ... of cultivation by 12-15%. However, ... Pulse, Oil seeds Rice & Cotton

Farmer Channel checks

Ag

ricu

ltu

re

5 5 Elara Securities (India) Private Limited

(2.4mnha, an increase of 12.7% YoY), Madhya Pradesh

(2.0mnha, up 10.6% YoY), Haryana (0.6mnha, up 15.4%

YoY), Telangana (0.6mnha, up 42.2% YoY) and Gujarat

(0.6mnha, an increase of 7.3% YoY). Lower sowing was

reported in Rajasthan (5.5mnha, a decline by 9.2% YoY)

and Uttar Pradesh (2.0mnha, down ~1.8% YoY) and

Tamil Nadu (0.2mnha, a fall of 20% YoY)

Oilseeds up in AP, Telangana, Karnataka,

Maharashtra & Gujarat

Oilseeds sowing as on 16 September 2016 reached

almost 103% of the normal coverage area of 18.3mnh. It

improved by 2.8% YoY to 18.8mnh. There was surplus of

0.7mnh compared to normal of corresponding week at

18.1mnh. Higher sowing was reported from Andhra

Pradesh (1.0mnha, a jump of 33.4 YoY), Telangana

(0.4mnha, up 17.3% YoY), Maharashtra (4.2mnha, a rise

of 5.8 %), Rajasthan (2.2mnha, up by 5.2% YoY),

Karnataka (up 25.6% YoY to 1.0mnha) and Gujarat

(2.5mnha, an increase of 6.2 %). Lower sowing was

reported in Madhya Pradesh (6.1mnha, a drop of 7.2 %),

and Uttar Pradesh (0.6mnha, a cut of 7.9% YoY).

Ground water levels improve across major reservoirs

As per the Central Water Commission (CWC), all-India live

storage available in 91 key reservoirs as on 15 September

2016 improved from 58.4% in the corresponding

previous year to 69% of total capacity of 157.8bn cubic

meters (bcm). Higher water levels were reported in the

eastern region (improved from 57% to 78%), western

(from 58% to 74%), central (from 77% to 87% vs 10-year

average of 70%) and Southern (from 34% to 42% vs 10-

year average of 75%). However, the northern region

remains low at 79% currently over the past year’s 87%.

According to CWC, out of 91 reservoirs, 56 reported

more than 80% of normal storage and 35 reported 80%

or below of normal storage. Out of 35 reservoirs, 18

have storage upto 50% of normal storage.

Page 6: India | Agriculture Sector Update Farmer Channel … · Our channel checks reveal higher crop yields over ... of cultivation by 12-15%. However, ... Pulse, Oil seeds Rice & Cotton

Farmer Channel checks

6 Elara Securities (India) Private Limited

Rainfall deficit of 4% at the pan-India level

Lower rainfall in Punjab, Haryana, Assam and Himachal

Pradesh broadened cumulative rainfall deficit to 4% to

813.1mm of LPA as on 22 September 2016. Excess

rainfall was reported in Rajasthan. Normal rainfall was in

Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Tamil

Nadu, Gujarat, Uttar Pradesh, West Bengal, Odisha,

Karnataka, Telangana and Chhattisgarh. Punjab (down

25%), Haryana (26% lower), Himachal Pradesh (22%

lower) and Kerala (a fall of 32%) continue to be in the

deficit zone, reporting less rainfall as on 22 September

2016. The IMD had forecast "above normal" rainfall in the

country.

Exhibit 9: Rainfall during 1 June- 22 September 2016

Source: IMD

Page 7: India | Agriculture Sector Update Farmer Channel … · Our channel checks reveal higher crop yields over ... of cultivation by 12-15%. However, ... Pulse, Oil seeds Rice & Cotton

Farmer Channel checks

Ag

ricu

ltu

re

7 7 Elara Securities (India) Private Limited

Exhibit 10: Rainfall during 1 June- 30 September 2015

Source: IMD

Page 8: India | Agriculture Sector Update Farmer Channel … · Our channel checks reveal higher crop yields over ... of cultivation by 12-15%. However, ... Pulse, Oil seeds Rice & Cotton

Farmer Channel checks

8 Elara Securities (India) Private Limited

Exhibit 11: Rainfall during 1 June- 30 September 2014

Source: IMD

Page 9: India | Agriculture Sector Update Farmer Channel … · Our channel checks reveal higher crop yields over ... of cultivation by 12-15%. However, ... Pulse, Oil seeds Rice & Cotton

Farmer Channel checks

Ag

ricu

ltu

re

9 9 Elara Securities (India) Private Limited

Exhibit 12: Key pictures of farms from Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan, Punjab and Haryana

Source: Elara Securities Research

Page 10: India | Agriculture Sector Update Farmer Channel … · Our channel checks reveal higher crop yields over ... of cultivation by 12-15%. However, ... Pulse, Oil seeds Rice & Cotton

Farmer Channel checks

10 Elara Securities (India) Private Limited

Source: Elara Securities Research

Page 11: India | Agriculture Sector Update Farmer Channel … · Our channel checks reveal higher crop yields over ... of cultivation by 12-15%. However, ... Pulse, Oil seeds Rice & Cotton

Elara Securities (India) Private Limited

Glo

ba

l M

ark

ets

Re

sea

rch

11 11

Disclosures & Confidentiality for non U.S. Investors

The Note is based on our estimates and is being provided to you (herein referred to as the “Recipient”) only for information

purposes. The sole purpose of this Note is to provide preliminary information on the business activities of the company and

the projected financial statements in order to assist the recipient in understanding / evaluating the Proposal. Nothing in this

document should be construed as an advice to buy or sell or solicitation to buy or sell the securities of companies referred to in

this document. Each recipient of this document should make such investigations as it deems necessary to arrive at an

independent evaluation of an investment in the securities of companies referred to in this document (including the merits and

risks involved) and should consult its own advisors to determine the merits and risks of such an investment. Nevertheless, Elara

Securities (India) Private Limited or any of its affiliates is committed to provide independent and transparent recommendation

to its client and would be happy to provide any information in response to specific client queries. Elara Securities (India) Private

Limited or any of its affiliates have not independently verified all the information given in this Note and expressly disclaim all

liability for any errors and/or omissions, representations or warranties, expressed or implied as contained in this Note. The user

assumes the entire risk of any use made of this information. Elara Securities (India) Private Limited or any of its affiliates, their

directors and the employees may from time to time, effect or have effected an own account transaction in or deal as principal

or agent in or for the securities mentioned in this document. They may perform or seek to perform investment banking or

other services for or solicit investment banking or other business from any company referred to in this Note. Each of these

entities functions as a separate, distinct and independent of each other. This Note is strictly confidential and is being furnished

to you solely for your information. This Note should not be reproduced or redistributed or passed on directly or indirectly in

any form to any other person or published, copied, in whole or in part, for any purpose. This Note is not directed or intended

for distribution to, or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or

other jurisdiction, where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law, regulation or which would

subject Elara Securities (India) Private Limited or any of its affiliates to any registration or licensing requirements within such

jurisdiction. The distribution of this document in certain jurisdictions may be restricted by law, and persons in whose

possession this document comes, should inform themselves about and observe, any such restrictions. Upon request, the

Recipient will promptly return all material received from the company and/or the Advisors without retaining any copies

thereof. The Information given in this document is as of the date of this report and there can be no assurance that future

results or events will be consistent with this information. This Information is subject to change without any prior notice. Elara

Securities (India) Private Limited or any of its affiliates reserves the right to make modifications and alterations to this statement

as may be required from time to time. However, Elara Securities (India) Private Limited is under no obligation to update or

keep the information current. Neither Elara Securities (India) Private Limited nor any of its affiliates, group companies,

directors, employees, agents or representatives shall be liable for any damages whether direct, indirect, special or

consequential including lost revenue or lost profits that may arise from or in connection with the use of the information. This

Note should not be deemed an indication of the state of affairs of the company nor shall it constitute an indication that there

has been no change in the business or state of affairs of the company since the date of publication of this Note. The

disclosures of interest statements incorporated in this document are provided solely to enhance the transparency and should

not be treated as endorsement of the views expressed in the report. Elara Securities (India) Private Limited generally prohibits

its analysts, persons reporting to analysts and their family members from maintaining a financial interest in the securities or

derivatives of any companies that the analysts cover. The analyst for this report certifies that all of the views expressed in this

report accurately reflect his or her personal views about the subject company or companies and its or their securities, and no

part of his or her compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly related to specific recommendations or views expressed

in this report.

Any clarifications / queries on the proposal as well as any future communication regarding the proposal should be addressed

to Elara Securities (India) Private Limited.

Elara Securities (India) Private Limited was incorporated in July 2007 as a subsidiary of Elara Capital (India) Private Limited.

Elara Securities (India) Private Limited is a SEBI registered Stock Broker in the Capital Market and Futures & Options Segments

of National Stock Exchange of India Limited (NSE) and in the Capital Market Segment of BSE Limited (BSE).

Elara Securities (India) Private Limited’s business, amongst other things, is to undertake all associated activities relating to its

broking business.

The activities of Elara Securities (India) Private Limited were neither suspended nor has it defaulted with any stock exchange

authority with whom it is registered in last five years. However, during the routine course of inspection and based on

observations, the exchanges have issued advise letters or levied minor penalties on Elara Securities (India) Private Limited for

minor operational deviations in certain cases. Elara Securities (India) Private Limited has not been debarred from doing

business by any Stock Exchange / SEBI or any other authorities; nor has the certificate of registration been cancelled by SEBI at

any point of time.

Elara Securities (India) Private Limited offers research services primarily to institutional investors and their employees, directors,

fund managers, advisors who are registered or proposed to be registered.

Page 12: India | Agriculture Sector Update Farmer Channel … · Our channel checks reveal higher crop yields over ... of cultivation by 12-15%. However, ... Pulse, Oil seeds Rice & Cotton

Elara Securities (India) Private Limited

12

Details of Associates of Elara Securities (India) Private Limited are available on group company website www.elaracapital.com

Elara Securities (India) Private Limited is maintaining arms-length relationship with its associate entities.

Research Analyst or his/her relative(s) may have financial interest in the subject company. Elara Securities (India) Private

Limited does not have any financial interest in the subject company, whereas its associate entities may have financial interest.

Research Analyst or his/her relative does not have actual/beneficial ownership of 1% or more securities of the subject

company at the end of the month immediately preceding the date of publication of Research Report. Elara Securities (India)

Private Limited does not have actual/beneficial ownership of 1% or more securities of the subject company at the end of the

month immediately preceding the date of publication of Research Report. Associate entities of Elara Securities (India) Private

Limited may have actual/beneficial ownership of 1% or more securities of the subject company at the end of the month

immediately preceding the date of publication of Research Report. Research Analyst or his/her relative or Elara Securities

(India) Private Limited or its associate entities does not have any other material conflict of interest at the time of publication of

the Research Report.

Research Analyst or his/her relative(s) has not served as an officer, director or employee of the subject company.

Research analyst or Elara Securities (India) Private Limited have not received any compensation from the subject company in

the past twelve months. Associate entities of Elara Securities (India) Private Limited may have received compensation from the

subject company in the past twelve months. Research analyst or Elara Securities (India) Private Limited or its associate entities

have not managed or co-managed public offering of securities for the subject company in the past twelve months. Research

analyst or Elara Securities (India) Private Limited or its associates have not received any compensation for investment banking

or merchant banking or brokerage services from the subject company in the past twelve months. Research analyst or Elara

Securities (India) Private Limited or its associate entities may have received any compensation for products or services other

than investment banking or merchant banking or brokerage services from the subject company or third party in connection

with the Research Report in the past twelve months.

Disclaimerfor non U.S. Investors

The information contained in this note is of a general nature and is not intended to address the circumstances of any

particular individual or entity. Although we endeavor to provide accurate and timely information, there can be no

guarantee that such information is accurate as of the date it is received or that it will continue to be accurate in the future.

No one should act on such information without appropriate professional advice after a thorough examination of the

particular situation.

Disclaimer for U.S. Investors

This material is based upon information that we consider to be reliable, but Elara Capital Inc. does not warrant its

completeness, accuracy or adequacy and it should not be relied upon as such.

This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security or other financial instrument.

Securities, financial instruments or strategies mentioned herein may not be suitable for all investors. Any opinions expressed

herein are given in good faith, are subject to change without notice, and are only correct as of the stated date of their issue.

Prices, values or income from any securities or investments mentioned in this report may fall against the interests of the

investor and the investor may get back less than the amount invested. Where an investment is described as being likely to

yield income, please note that the amount of income that the investor will receive from such an investment may fluctuate.

Where an investment or security is denominated in a different currency to the investor’s currency of reference, changes in

rates of exchange may have an adverse effect on the value, price or income of or from that investment to the investor. The

information contained in this report does not constitute advice on the tax consequences of making any particular

investment decision. This material does not take into account your particular investment objectives, financial situations or

needs and is not intended as a recommendation of particular securities, financial instruments or strategies to you. Before

acting on any recommendation in this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances

and, if necessary, seek professional advice.

Certain statements in this report, including any financial projections, may constitute “forward-looking statements.” These

“forward-looking statements” are not guarantees of future performance and are based on numerous current assumptions

that are subject to significant uncertainties and contingencies. Actual future performance could differ materially from these

“forward-looking statements” and financial information.

Page 13: India | Agriculture Sector Update Farmer Channel … · Our channel checks reveal higher crop yields over ... of cultivation by 12-15%. However, ... Pulse, Oil seeds Rice & Cotton

Elara Securities (India) Private Limited

Glo

ba

l M

ark

ets

Re

sea

rch

13 13

India Elara Securities (India) Pvt. Ltd. Indiabulls Finance Centre, Tower 3, 21st Floor, Senapati Bapat Marg, Elphinstone Road (West) Mumbai – 400 013, India Tel : +91 22 6164 8500

Europe Elara Capital Plc. 29 Marylebone Road, London NW1 5JX, United Kingdom

Tel : +4420 7486 9733

USA Elara Securities Inc. 950 Third Avenue, Suite 1903, New York, NY 10022, USA Tel: +1 212 430 5870 Fax: +1 212 208 2501

Asia / Pacific Elara Capital (Singapore) Pte.Ltd. 30 Raffles Place #20-03, Chevron House Singapore 048622

Tel : +65 6536 6267

Harendra Kumar Managing Director [email protected] +91 22 6164 8571

Sales

Deepak Sawhney India

[email protected] +91 22 6164 8549

Nishit Master India

[email protected] +91 22 6164 8521

Prashin Lalvani India

[email protected] +91 22 6164 8544

Sushil Bhojwani India

[email protected] +91 22 6164 8512

Sudhanshu Rajpal India

[email protected] +91 22 6164 8508

Parin Vora North America

[email protected] +91 22 6164 8558

Sales Trading & Dealing

Manan Joshi India

[email protected] +91 22 6164 8555

Manoj Murarka India

[email protected] +91 22 6164 8551

Sanjay Joshi India [email protected] +91 22 6164 8554

Vishal Thakkar India [email protected] +91 22 6164 8552

Research

Abhishek Karande Analyst Technical & Alternate Strategy [email protected] +91 22 6164 8562

Adhidev Chattopadhyay Analyst Infrastructure, Real Estate [email protected] +91 22 6164 8526

Ashish Kejriwal Analyst Metals & Mining, Railways [email protected] +91 22 6164 8505

Deepak Agrawala Analyst Power, Capital Goods [email protected] +91 22 6164 8523

Jay Kale, CFA Analyst Auto & Auto Ancillaries [email protected] +91 22 6164 8507

Param Desai Analyst Pharmaceuticals [email protected] +91 22 6164 8528

Rahul Veera Strategy

[email protected] +91 22 6164 8529

Rakesh Kumar Analyst Banking & Financials [email protected] +91 22 6164 8559

Ravi Menon Analyst IT Services [email protected] +91 22 6164 8502

Ravi Sodah Analyst Cement [email protected] +91 22 6164 8517

Sumant Kumar Analyst Agri, Travel & Hospitality, Paper [email protected] +91 22 6164 8503

Swarnendu Bhushan Analyst Oil and gas [email protected] +91 22 6164 8504

Harshit Kapadia Sr. Associate Power, Capital Goods [email protected] +91 22 6164 8542

Manuj Oberoi Sr. Associate Banking & Financials [email protected] +91 22 6164 8535

Aniket Pande Associate IT Services [email protected] +91 22 6164 8510

Anuja Barve Associate Agri, Travel & Hospitality, Paper [email protected] +91 22 6164 8541

Harsh Jhanwar Associate Cement [email protected] +91 22 6164 8546

Harshraj Aggarwal Associate Oil and gas [email protected] +91 22 6164 8530

Kamlesh Shirbhate Associate Infrastructure, Real Estate [email protected] +91 22 6164 8525

Milan Desai Associate Media [email protected] +91 22 6164 8516

Vijay Gyanchandani Associate Auto & Auto Ancillaries [email protected] +91 22 6164 8511

Hetal Gada Executive Research Metals & Mining, Railways [email protected] +91 22 6164 8536

Vaishnavi Mandhaniya Executive Research Telecom [email protected] +91 22 6164 8519

Priyanka Sheth Editor

[email protected] +91 22 6164 8568

Gurunath Parab Production

[email protected] +91 22 6164 8515

Jinesh Bhansali Production

[email protected] +91 22 6164 8537

Access our reports on Bloomberg: Type ESEC <GO>

Also available on Thomson & Reuters

Elara Securities (India) Private Limited CIN: U74992MH2007PTC172297

SEBI RA Regn. No.: INH000000933 Member (BSE, NSE)

Regn Nos: CAPITAL MARKET SEBI REGN. NO.: BSE: INB 011289833, NSE: INB231289837 DERIVATIVES SEBI REGN. NO.: NSE: INF 231289837 Website: www.elaracapital.com Investor Grievance Email ID: [email protected]