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12th National Convention on Statistics (NCS) EDSA Shangri-La Hotel

October 1-2, 2013

THE FUNDAMENTAL PRINCIPLES OF OFFICIAL STATISTICS: THREATS IN THE

PHILIPPINE STATISTICAL SYSTEM

by

Romulo A. Virola

For additional information, please contact:

Author’s name Romulo A. Virola

Designation Former Secretary General, National Statistical Coordination Board & Consultant

Affiliation “Statistically Speaking” Consultancy Services (SSCS) Address #2 Camia Street, Vergonville, Las Piñas City Tel. no. +632-8717264; +639175278265

E-mail ravirola@yahoo.com

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THE FUNDAMENTAL PRINCIPLES OF OFFICIAL STATISTICS: THREATS IN THE

PHILIPPINE STATISTICAL SYSTEM

by

Romulo A. Virola1

Abstract

Concerned with the integrity, credibility, and professionalism of national statistical systems (NSS), the United Nations Statistical Commission adopted in 1994 the Fundamental Principles of Official Statistics (FPOS).

The FPOS provides guidance to NSSs and to official statisticians in the delivery of statistical products and services to their stakeholders. However, despite its adoption by UN member countries, there have been cases cited recently where national statistical systems of specific countries may have possibly violated the FPOS. In fact, a Chief Statistician has resigned and another has been threatened with charges of unprofessional conduct in the compilation/release of official statistics.

Given the pronounced policies of the Aquino administration on good governance, transparency, accountability, “tuwid na daan”, etc., this paper examines the FPOS and assesses the challenges and prospects as well as raises questions on their application and implementation in the Philippine Statistical System (PSS). The paper also makes recommendations on how to enhance the credibility of the PSS through the FPOS.

KEY WORDS AND PHRASES: Integrity, credibility, professionalism, national statistical system, fundamental principles of official statistics, official statisticians, violation, violators, and threats.

I. Introduction

With globalization and innovation as driving forces during the Third Millennium,

information, and therefore, statistics, has become a very important, if not the most important

commodity. Thus, the statistical profession has been referred to as the sexy profession2 of the

1 Former Secretary General of the National Statistical Coordination Board of the Philippines, Former

Member of the Friends of the Chair of the United Nations Statistical Commission on the Fundamental Principles of Official Statistics, and currently, Chair of the Friends of the Chair on Formulating the 2015-2019 Strategic Plan for the UNESCAP Statistical Institute for Asia and the Pacific. The author acknowledges the assistance of some members of the NSCB Technical Staff in the preparation of this paper. 2 Google’s Chief Economist, Hal Varian said in 2009, “I keep saying the sexy job in the next ten years will

be statisticians. People think I’m joking, but who would’ve guessed that computer engineers would’ve been the sexy job of the 1990s?”

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decade (see [12]); statistics is now the fastest-growing major3 at the University of California in

Berkeley ( see [13] ); and the next billionaire in the United States is a statistician4, (see [8]).

But while the private sector has been engagingly more active in the generation of

statistics, the big bulk of statistics produced in a country is generated by official statisticians

from national statistical agencies and other institutions belonging to the national statistical

system (NSS), i.e. by government. In the Philippines, the primary data collection agencies are

the National Statistics Office (NSO), BAS, BLES, BSP and line agencies like the DepEd, DOH,

DSWD, DENR, DOT, and others which comprise the Philippine Statistical System (PSS). The

National Statistical Coordination Board (NSCB) serves as the coordinator of the PSS.

Unfortunately, in many countries, especially in developing countries, things done by government

generally do not earn the highest levels of public trust and confidence. But regardless of who

produces them, for statistics to be used and be useful, they must have credibility and must have

been generated with high standards of professionalism and scientific rigor.

In the generation of official statistics, statisticians in government are guided by decisions

and recommendations adopted by the United Nations Statistical Commission5 (UNSC) which

serves as a global oversight body on statistical matters (see [20]). The UN Statistics Division

(UNSD) serves as the Secretariat of the UNSC and spearheads the preparation of sources and

methods that provide methodological guidance to countries in the compilation of official statistics

(see[19]).The UN member countries are of course at liberty to adapt many of these decisions

and recommendations to suit local conditions, and may in fact, take some time to fully

implement them6.

Recognizing the need for a set of principles governing official statistics that should be of

global significance, “bearing in mind that the essential trust of the public in the integrity of

official statistical systems and confidence in statistics depend to a large extent on respect for the

fundamental values and principles that are the basis of any society seeking to understand itself

3 Statistics majors grew from 83 in 2009 to 323 in 2013 or a growth of 289%, followed by computer

science, cognitive science, society and environment, geography and applied mathematics. However, in terms of number of majors, UC Berkeley’s top major is still electrical engineering and computer science. 4 He is Dennis Gillings, a statistician who helped create the multibillion-dollar industry of conducting

research studies for drug giants. 5 The UNSC, established in 1947, is the apex entity of the global statistical system. It is the highest

decision making body for international statistical activities especially the setting of statistical standards, the development of concepts and methods and their implementation at the national and international level. It oversees the work of the United Nations Statistics Division (UNSD), and is a Functional Commission of the UN Economic and Social Council 6 One example is the 1993/2008 SNA, the universal guidelines on the compilation of national accounts,

which many developing countries have not fully implemented.

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and respect the rights of its members, and in this context that professional independence and

accountability of statistical agencies are crucial” 7, the UNSC at its Special Session on 11-15

April 1994 adopted the United Nations (UN) Fundamental Principles of Official Statistics

(FPOS). In addition to the FPOS, official statisticians are guided by Codes of Professionalism

and Ethics adopted by various statistical bodies8 as well as by the UN Handbook of Statistical

Organization (see [3]) .

Recently, a number of events and circumstances relating to the behavior of national

statistical agencies, chief statisticians, and governments have highlighted the importance of the

FPOS. On the local front, it is well recognized that Pres. Benigno S. Aquino III convincingly won

in the 2010 elections on a platform of good governance, transparency, and accountability. In

fact, the impressive economic performance of the Aquino administration has resulted in a

ratings upgrade of the Philippines to investment grade by Standard and Poors, followed by

Fitch, with understandable expectations that the third major rating agency Moody’s will likewise

follow. Of course, this was all before the pork barrel mess oinked loud and clear that senators,

congressmen, other government officials and NGOs may have indeed contributed to the

corruption of the pork barrel system even under the present administration.

The PSS is highly respected in the international statistical community as evidenced by,

among others, the keen interest of international organizations to include the Philippines as a

pilot area for many statistical developmental initiatives, the invitation for Filipino statisticians to

present papers sharing their experiences and expertise as well as chair sessions in international

meetings and conferences9, and the many offers Filipino statisticians receive to provide

international consultancy services. In addition, in the World Bank statistical capacity scoring

system10, the Philippines received the highest rating among 21 developing countries in East

Asia and the Pacific for the last five years. (see [5]).To the chagrin of many hard-working and

independent-minded members of the NSCB Technical Staff (TS) who are fully aware of the

7 Preamble of the Fundamental Principles of Official Statistics

8 These include the Declaration of Professional Ethics for Statisticians adopted by the Council of the

International Statistical Institute in 2010, the Code of Ethics by the Philippine Statistical Association , and Code of Conduct and Ethical Standards for Public Officials and Employees by the Civil Service Commission. 9 Filipino statisticians generally get funding from international organizations to participate in these

international meetings and conferences. 10

The overall score of countries is based on three dimensions: statistical methodology, source data, and periodicity and timeliness.

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strengths and weaknesses of the PSS and submitted their position paper against an obviously

flawed bill11 reorganizing the PSS (see [15]) , it was passed by the 15th Congress.

Amidst the current developments in the PSS, it is therefore critical to assess the extent

of adherence to the FPOS by the PSS, the threats, as well as the opportunities. The paper is

organized as follows. The next section presents the FPOS. The third section presents some

cases of possible violations and violators of the FPOS. The fourth section discusses the threats

in the application and implementation of the FPOS in the PSS while the last section offers

concluding remarks and recommendations on the way forward in safeguarding the integrity and

independence of NSSs, particularly, the PSS.

II. The Fundamental Principles of Official Statistics (FPOS)

As already mentioned, the FPOS was adopted by the UNSC in 1994, following an

international consultation process. At its 42nd session in 2011, the UNSC acknowledged that the

Principles were still as relevant as they had been in the past and that no revision of the 10

Principles was necessary, but recommended, that a Friends of the Chair12 (FOC) group revise

and update the preamble of the FPOS to take into account new developments since 1994. At its

44th session in 2013, the UNSC adopted the revised preamble and reaffirmed the FPOS. On 24

July 2013, the UN Economic and Social Council endorsed the FPOS marking the first time the

FPOS had received such high recognition at the global political level, and further recommended

that the UN General Assembly also endorse the Principles.

The FPOS consists of ten Principles on the generation, dissemination and

communication, and use of official statistics, including the conduct of statistical agencies, their

staff and the country’s Chief Statistician as well as the conduct of users of statistics . The ten

principles deal on the following (see [18]).:

11

The bill, with its many flaws, merges the National Statistical Coordination Board, the National Statistics Office, the Bureau of Agricultural Statistics, and the Bureau of Labor and Employment Statistics into the Philippines Statistics Authority. Among the flaws are the severely weakened structure for statistical coordination, the notorious neglect for subnational statistical development, the loss of independence due to the attachment to NEDA not just for administrative purposes but “for purposes of policy coordination”, and the humongous powers of an unmanageably huge PSA “which shall be primarily responsible for all national censuses and surveys, sectoral statistics, consolidation of selected administrative recording systems and compilation of the national accounts” (underscoring ours). 12

The author was a member of the Friends of the Chair headed by Katherine K. Wallman, Chief Statistician at the Office of Management and Budget, United States of America.

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Principle 1: Relevance, Impartiality, and Equal Access

Official statistical agencies must generate relevant statistics and make

them available on an impartial basis to honour citizens’ entitlement to public

information.

Principle 2: Professional Standards and Ethics

To retain trust in official statistics, statistical agencies must decide

according to strictly professional considerations and professional ethics.

Principle 3: Accountability and Transparency

To facilitate correct interpretation of data, statistical agencies must present

information according to scientific standards on the sources, methods, and

procedures of the statistics.

Principle 4: Prevention of Misuse

Statistical agencies are entitled to comment on erroneous interpretation

and misuse of statistics.

Principle 5: Cost-Effectiveness

Data for statistical purposes may be drawn from all types of sources, be

they surveys or administrative records, and the choice should be with

regard to quality, timeliness, costs, and respondents’ burden.

Principle 6: Confidentiality

Individual data collected by statistical agencies for statistical compilation

must be strictly confidential and used exclusively for statistical purposes.

Principle 7: Legislation

The laws under which statistical systems operate must be made public.

Principle 8: National Coordination

Coordination among statistical agencies within countries is essential to

achieve consistency and efficiency in the statistical system.

Principle 9: International Standards

The consistency and efficiency of statistical systems is promoted by the

use of international concepts, classifications, and methods by statistical

agencies.

Principle 10: International Cooperation

International cooperation improves national statistical systems in all

countries.

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The UNSD, under the guidance of the FOC, conducted a second global review13 on

compliance with the FPOS. The Philippines, thru the NSCB participated in the survey. The

concluding remarks of the survey report are (see [4]):

1. On the basis of this self-assessment survey, it seems that a lot of improvement

has been made in the implementation of the FPOS over the past ten years, and

that the FPOS are remarkably well implemented.

2. Confidentiality (Principle 6) and Legislation (Principle 7) continue to be the best

implemented principles and, on the other hand, National Coordination (Principle

8) and Prevention of Misuse (Principle 4) continue to be the least implemented

principles.

3. Chief statisticians expect the implementation of the FPOS to even improve further

in the next ten years and suggest that advocacy at the political level, further

training for the management and all other staff working in official statistics, the

compilation of the best practices and technical assistance in general, will help

achieve this.

III. “VIOLATIONS” AND “VIOLATORS” OF THE FPOS?

A side event during the 42nd Session of the UNSC was the High Level Forum on Official

Statistics. One presentor was Pali Lehohla, Statistician-General of South Africa, and Chair of

the UNSC then. Some of the following came from his presentation (see [21]),:

1. Israel-Palestine: Confidentiality of Census records (Lehohla)

2003 UNSC Allegation by Palestine:

Israel in attacking Palestine took the Census records and used the individual records to pursue attacks on individual Palestinians.

Israel had therefore violated Principle 6.

Matter was tabled for discussion by the UNSC for 2005

Result Although the matter was set for hearing by the UNSC it

was never presented. The delegate of Palestine was denied a visa by the US authorities.

13

The first global review was conducted in 2003 with an overall response rate of 58% and reported to the UNSC at its 35

th Session in 2004. coinciding with the tenth anniversary of the adoption of the FPOS. The

second review had a response rate of 65%.

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The UNSC thus has not been enabled to execute its fiduciary duties and there remains no closure on this matter over which we could test first the validity of claims by Palestine and secondly how the UNSC could best serve the principles

Has the UNSC undermined the framework for managing its work and rendered the FPOS less useful?

2. Indonesia – Confidentiality of NSO data (Lehohla)

Statement: Records from NSO were used to identify poor households

and address poverty The Records are now used for monitoring and resolving

poverty

Dilemma The statistics office does not see how it exits the situation. Do benevolence and responsiveness constitute a

violation?

Is Indonesia violating Principle 6?

3. Launch by the UN Secretary General of the 2009 Global Impact and Vulnerability

Alert System(GIVAS) – not by the UNSC (Lehohla)

Position of UN Secretary General

As a policy maker, my needs are for information and data

that address problems and help me resolve them and the sooner the better

A number of these problems do not send a letter of notice that we are going to strike as problems.

Therefore be innovative, the world is not going to wait for you

Concern of the UNSC Chair

Is the UN Secretary General unduly interfering and hampering the work of the UNSC and therefore affecting the FPOS adversely?

4. Resignation by the Chief Statistician of Canada( Munir Sheikh)- over the long

form/short form in their 2011 Census of Population

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Issue: The Government of Prime Minister Harper, represented by

Industry Minister Tony Clement (Minister responsible for Statistics Canada) wanted to do away with the mandatory long form (administered to a fifth of the households) and instead send a voluntary form through a National Household Survey

Munir Sheikh resigned and was replaced by ‘Wayne Smith who went ahead with the plan of Government to do away with the mandatory long form. In June 2013, Smith admitted (see[9]) that the voluntary survey has had some problems: About half of Saskatchewan communities were left out of the first batch of data due to low response rates, while Canada's Filipino population appears to have been over-counted.

Question: Did Mr. Clement violate Principles 1 and 2?

5. Argentina – Change in the CPI Methodology

Issue: The IMF claims that the Argentine CPI had been

deliberately manipulated in 2007 by the government to

reduce its repayment obligations on CPI-indexed bonds

In 2010, Graciela Bevacqua, former head of the CPI unit in

INDEC14, told a Senate hearing that the Secretary of

Internal Trade had pressured her to doctor inflation data so

it would appear innocuously low; that she was “persecuted

and pressured everyday to change the numbers”, and

accused the Secretary of bullying her and other INDEC.

Argentina has created a statistical labyrinth (see [7]).

Did the Argentine government violate Principle 2?

Result In 2010, the Argentine government invited the IMF to help

INDEC to come up with a new national CPI.

14

NSO of Argentina

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In 2011, the American Statistical Association and the

International Statistical Institute (ISI) wrote to the UN

Special Rapporteur on the promotion and the protection of

the right to freedom of opinion and expression, basically

expressing their deep concern over the harassment and

persecution of statisticians by the Argentine government

(see [10]) .

In the High Level Forum on Official Statistics during the

2011 session of the UNSC, a group of participants from

Argentina walked out of the Forum when the Chief

Statistician of South Africa was presenting the case of

Argentina.

In February 2013, the IMF's executive board censured

Argentina for failing to meet its reporting standards for

economic data which lays the grounds for possible

sanctions against Argentina, including the loss of

borrowing rights.

Starting October 2013, INDEC will use a new CPI

methodology. (see [16])

6. Greece – Its Debt Crisis and Estimates of its Budget Deficit

Issue A former IMF statistician Andreas Georgiou was appointed to ELSTAT15 as Chief Statistician in 2010, a year after the start of Greece’s debt crisis to bring Greece's debt statistics in line with European norms. (see [17]) After he took over, the country’s 2009 budget deficit was revised upwards from 13.6 to 15 per cent of GDP.

In January 2013, felony charges were filed against Georgiou and two senior ELSTAT staffers for allegedly inflating the 2009 deficit. He could land in prison for life for issuing data that his detractors say led to higher bond prices and a drop in housing values.

15

NSO of Greece

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Response from the statistical community

On 13 February 2013, Eurostat16, , set out its concern that ‘political debates surrounding judicial action taken against the Head of the Greek statistical office (ELSTAT) and the calling into question of the validity of data which have repeatedly passed the stringent quality checks applied by Eurostat to ensure full compliance with European law seem to disregard commonly agreed European procedures.’ Earlier in December, Eurostat "…refutes all allegations that the deficit of 2009 was overestimated." The compilation of 2009 and 2010 data has been published "without any reservation ... in contrast with previous periods." (see [22])

The Royal Statistical Society’s (RSS) president17 wrote to

Karolos Papoulias, president of the Hellenic Republic, that

the RSS had no reason to doubt Eurostat’s confidence in

Georgiou’s work and the statistics produced and to urge

that ‘a scrupulously fair hearing’ be given to Georgiou (see

[22])

Now the question is whether the Greek political establishment will observe the European standards or insist on "Greek statistics." (see [11])

,

IV. THE FPOS & THE PSS: OPPORTUNITIES & THREATS

What about the PSS?

Certainly, the PSS has not been without its share of experiences that could have been

causes of concern regarding its adherence to the FPOS. Some18 of these are:

1. The PSS has been a pioneer of the Advance Release Calendar

(ARC)19 for official statistics (see [2]). The ARC is a one-year schedule

16

The statistical agency of the European Union with Walter Radermacher as Director General 17

The RSS is a well-recognized professional body of statisticians in the United Kingdom with John Pullinger as President 18

It would have been more informative if a more complete listing could be made but NCS space limitations ( not more than 5000 words) prevent this.

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published in advance20 to alert stakeholders regarding the release

date of official statistics. But even before the ARC was formally

adopted by the PSS, major statistical agencies were already releasing

some key statistics like the national accounts (NA) and the Consumer

Price Index (CPI) on a fairly regular basis. For instance, the NSCB TS

releases the quarterly national accounts two months after the

reference quarter except for the fourth quarter which is released one

month after. But sometime ago, a President wanted the NSCB to

release the NA earlier than scheduled. With the strong support of the

then NSCB Chair21, the NSCB wrote a memorandum to the President

explaining that while the NSCB could advance the release of the NA

as wished, it would affect the quality of the estimates primarily

because the data support would be weaker. To the credit of the

President, the implications were quickly understood and the schedule

was followed. Otherwise, a violation of Principle 2 would have been

committed!

2. The NSCB TS releases the NA thru a press conference to which the

public, mainly the media, is invited. The presscon is conducted in

accordance with the ARC, generally at ten o’clock in the morning with

the NSCB Secretary General (SG) making a Power Point presentation

of the estimates followed by a statement from the NEDA Director

General (DG). Sometime ago, a President, after being informed by the

NEDA the day before the presscon that growth of the Gross Domestic

Product (GDP) was high, wanted to be the one to announce the GDP

figures instead of the NSCB SG. On the eve of the presscon, the

NSCB TS exerted best efforts to convince the President that it would

not be sound statistical practice for a President to announce the GDP

estimates. With the help of a NEDA Deputy Director General, the

19

On 29 October 1997, the NSCB issued Board Resolution No. 10 Series of 1997 on the “Adoption and Implementation of the Government Statistics Accessibility Program (G-SAP)”. In line with this, NSCB Resolution No. 8 Series of 1999 on the “Adoption of the General Standards on Statistical Information Dissemination (GSSID)” was issued on 18 March 1999. A specific standard in the GSSID provides for the dissemination of an ARC by “all agencies engaged in the generation of statistical information”. It covered statistics expected to be released in 2001 and onwards 20

At least one quarter in advance via the agency website and through printed public announcements or press releases.

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President settled for a phone patch that gave the President the

opportunity to speak at the beginning of the conference but with the

GDP estimates presented by the NSCB SG. Otherwise, a violation of

Principle 2 would have been committed!

3. Sometime ago, the PSS22 came up with flash indicators to measure

the impact of global crises in the Philippines. The indicators which

were posted on the NSCB website included labor turnover rates/

number of displaced workers. A Cabinet Secretary “proposed” that the

web-posting of data on job displacements due to the global crisis be

discontinued “as this may no longer be relevant as the situation has

trickled down to a few establishments”. The NSCB Executive Board

decided:

“there should be transparency regarding the release of official data following the principles of official statistics”;

“that the data may be used for political propaganda should not be sufficient reason for preventing its release”;

“there is a need to generate information on these indicators to create a clear picture of the employment situation”;

“posting on the NSCB website should be continued for transparency and better appreciation of the impact of the global crisis”;

“the Board should keep its integrity by not allowing itself to be pressured by political influences”.

Otherwise there would have been a violation of Principles 1 and 2!

4. The StatDev is a product of the NSCB TS that monitors the progress

of the achievement of the country’s development goals set forth in the

national development agenda. It is meant to serve as an input in the

State of the Nation Address (SONA) of the President and its release is

included in the NSCB ARC. Sometime ago, a Cabinet Secretary

wanted the NSCB TS to “freeze” the release of the StatDev which had

already been released earlier. Thinking that what was meant was to

pull out the StatDev from the NSCB website, the NSCB SG said no!

Otherwise, a violation of Principle 2 would have been committed!

21

By virtue of Executive Order No. 121 signed by President Corazon C. Aquino, the Secretary of Socio Economic Planning and NEDA Director General sits as Chair of the NSCB, with a DBM Undersecretary as Vice-Chair.

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5. Sometime ago, after the release of the LEI23, a NEDA Director General called the NSCB “suggesting” that the NSCB consider stopping the release of the LEI, asking “who are its users anyway?” The NSCB SG said no! Otherwise there would have been a violation of Principles 1 and 2!

6. In general, estimates of key indicators like the NA and the CPI are sent

to the NSCB Chair a day before they are released to the public.

Sometime ago, a Cabinet Secretary wanted an advance copy of the

CPI as well. The NSO Administrator said no! Otherwise, a violation of

Principle 1 would have been committed!

7. The NSO generally releases foreign trade statistics24 in both dollar and

peso terms. Sometime ago, due to foreign exchange fluctuations,

estimates in peso terms showed growth but a decline in dollar terms.

A Cabinet Secretary wanted the NSO to release only the peso

estimates. Again, the NSO Administrator said no! Otherwise, a

violation of Principle 2 would have been committed!

8. The NSO has received many requests in the past, both from

government and the private sector, for information at the

establishment/household level. The NSO Administrator said no!

Otherwise a violation of Principle 6 would have been committed!

In addition, the following are cited as practices of the PSS that adhere to the FPOS.

1. One statistical practice that has long been established in the PSS is

the production of metada for the statistics it generates, as one of the

standards of the GSSID. This is in adherence to Principle 3.

2. Members of the media and other users of statistics do not always

have a correct appreciation of how the statistics are generated. As a

result, there would be erroneous reporting of the statistics. The NSCB

22

An interagency Task Force chaired by the NEDA was created by the NSCB for the purpose. 23

Leading Economic Indicators 24

Statistics on exports and imports

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TS issues the necessary clarification via the For The Record section (

see [14]) on its website. This is in adherence to Principle 4.

3. The PSS agencies adopt international statistical standards, concepts,

and definitions25 but adapt them to local conditions to enhance the

comparability and consistency of statistics they generate. This is in

adherence to Principle 9.

4. The PSS has been engaged in many activities in collaboration and

cooperation with international organizations and the NSS of other

countries in support of statistical development. This includes hosting

study visits and conducting training of statisticians from other

countries, hosting international conferences, serving as pilot country

for international statistical initiatives, and serving as chairs/members

of international committees on statistics. This is in adherence to

Principle 10.

Obviously, the PSS has been challenged/threatened with respect to adherence to the

FPOS. But these challenges have also given opportunities for the PSS officials and employees

to display their integrity, independence, and courage to confront conscious or unconscious

attempts to violate the FPOS with utmost professionalism and high standards of public service.

On the other hand, there have also been a number of issues, concerns, and questions

that can be raised.

1. A major change in the PSS introduced by the bill passed by Congress is the

merger of the NSCB and the NSO, meaning that data production and

statistical coordination are now functions of just one organization. The

provisions of the bill obviously weaken statistical coordination in the PSS. The

bill has eliminated the one distinctive advantage of the PSS over other NSSs.

It has destroyed the one feature of the PSS for which it has received

worldwide recognition as one of the most developed NSSs among developing

25

In collaboration with other PSS agencies, the NSCB TS has produced several classification systems which have been approved by the NSCB Executive Board for adoption by PSS agencies and some of which are the following: Philippine Standard Industrial Classification (PSIC), Philippine Standard Occupational Classification (PSOC), Philippine Standard Commodity Classification (PSCC), Philippine

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countries. In many countries26 where statistical coordination is lodged with

their NSO, statistical coordination is practically non-existent. The result is the

generally poor quality of sectoral and subnational statistics produced by the

line departments/ministries and local government units of the NSS. In passing

the bill, did Congress violate or at least exhibit a lack of appreciation and

understanding of Principle 8? It may be recalled that in the UN survey on

adherence to the FPOS, Principle 8 is one of the two principles least

implemented by countries.

2. One of the statistical coordination mechanisms established in the PSS is the

System of Designated Statistics (SDS) under Executive Order No. 35227 (see

[1]). The SDS designates the conduct of specific statistical

activities/compilation of statistics and identifies the implementing agency,

frequency, geographic disaggregation and time lag in the release of data.

Section 6 of EO 352 states that “the amounts necessary to carry out the

provisions of this EO shall be provided for in the General Appropriations Act”.

In spite of this, the DBM and Congress have not always provided the budget

needed to conduct a number of the designated statistics28. The DBM has also

not been providing sufficient budget to the NSCB and other PSS agencies so

that they can hire the necessary manpower to generate these designated

statistics. The question is, is this not a violation of Principle 1 under which

“Official statistical agencies must generate relevant statistics and make them

available on an impartial basis to honour citizens’ entitlement to public

information”? What a pity that so much money apparently has been wasted

on the pork barrel of Senators and Congressmen sacrificing resources that

should have gone to support statistics.

3. The formulation of the Philippine Statistical Development Program (PSDP)29

is an interagency effort of the PSS. It is spearheaded by the NSCB TS under

Central Product Classification (PCPC), and Philippine Classification of Individual Consumption by Object of Purpose(PCOICOP), 26

This was clearly the case in the nine countries visited by the author when he served as a Consultant for UNIFEM on the improvement of gender statistics in the Asia Pacific region. 27

Signed by President Fidel V. Ramos on 01 July 1996. 28

Examples of designated statistical activities that have not been provided with the required budget in the past are the Census of Agriculture and Fisheries, the mid decade Census of Population, and the National Nutrition Survey, among others. 29

The PSDP is the blueprint of statistical activities to be undertaken in the medium term and serves the information requirements of the national development agenda (Philippine Development Plan and its

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the guidance of a Steering Committee (SC) chaired by the NSCB SG. One

NEDA DG, despite being reminded that the SC had been traditionally chaired

by the NSCB SG, wanted to preside a meeting of the Steering Committee30

so that the DG could be “updated” on the PSDP. After the first meeting,

however, the DG no longer attended the succeeding meetings of the SC. The

question is, was this an attempt of the NEDA DG to influence the statistical

activities that will be undertaken by the PSS in the medium term, thereby

violating Principle 2?

4. The methodology for official poverty statistics is developed by the NSCB

Technical Committee on Poverty Statistics (TC PovStat)31. The TC PovStat

endorses the methodology to the NSCB Executive Board for approval before

it is used to generate official poverty statistics. Sometime ago, a methodology

was developed by the TC Povstat which was approved by the Board, with a

minor change based on the suggestion of a NEDA DG. After approval, the

NEDA DG asked the TC Povstat to reconvene and discuss certain aspects

of the methodology. The methodology was discussed again in the next Board

meeting as Business Arising, with the TC Povstat maintaining its position on

the earlier approved methodology. During the Board meeting, the NEDA DG

again asked the TC Povstat to reconvene and discuss the same aspects of

the methodology earlier raised. The TC Povstat maintained its

recommendation and this was approved by the Board through a referendum.

The question is, was this an attempt of a NEDA DG to influence the TC

PovStat to recommend a methodology that is not the most appropriate

according to its professional judgment, in violation of Principle 2?

5. The NSCB TS tries to release poverty statistics in accordance with the ARC.

Sometime ago, the TCPovstat came up with a schedule where poverty

statistics were to be released before the SONA, partly in response to a

request from NEDA. However, in an NSCB Executive Board meeting, a

NEDA DG “suggested” “to release the poverty estimates in August rather

than before the SONA because such release might be politicized”. Before the

predecessors). It is now on its 8th version and has been formulated and implemented by the PSS long

before the National Strategy for the Development of Statistics (NSDS) was initiated by PARIS21 (Partnership in Statistics for Development in the 21

st Century)

30 NEDA sits as Vice Chair of the Steering Committee.

31 It is currently chaired by Dr. Celia M.Reyes of the Philippine Institute for Development Studies.

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TC Povstat could discuss the “suggestion”, it was informed that the original

schedule could not be followed because the NSO failed to finish the

processing of the FIES data. By default, the poverty statistics would have to

be released after the SONA. But is this not a direct interference by NEDA on

matters that should be left for the statisticians and the NSCB Technical

Committees to decide, and therefore a violation of Principle 2? In this regard,

it is relevant to cite that the UN Handbook of Statistical Organization protects

the Chief Statistician from such interference when it says: “Refusal to delay

the presentation of a key result should never be a reason to demand the

resignation of the Chief Statistician”! (see[3])

6. In recent years, the government set up two registries which may be

overlapping with one another: the NHTSPR32 of the DSWD and the registry

of farmers, fisherfolk, and DAR beneficiaries33 of the DBM.

Initially, the DSWD wanted and invited the statistical offices to collect the data

for the NHTSPR database. The NSCB TS informed the DSWD that since

household level data were going to be divulged under the NHTSPR, it would

be inappropriate for the statistical offices to be involved in the data collection.

The DSWD decided to do the data collection itself.

In the case of the RSBSA, “the NSO conducted the surveys for the first phase

of the project with 20 pilot provinces and registered 2,116,313 farmers, farm

laborers and fisher folk in the targeted provinces” (see [6]). However,

household-level data are being disseminated by the DBM upon request. Is

this not a violation of Principle 6?

Recently, there were efforts to unify the registries and other databases

including the CBMS under the Unified Data Collection System (UDCS)34

initiated by the DBM. The intention may be noble but some statisticians have

raised questions35 about the plan; NEDA does not find it cost effective; and

unification has not happened. The question is, is it appropriate for the DBM to

32

National Household Targeting System for Poverty Reduction 33

The Registry System for Basic Sectors in Agriculture (RSBSA). It is an inter-agency effort among the DBM, NSO, DA, DAR, DILG and NAPC. 34

The UDCS agencies are DBM, NEDA, NAPC, NSO, DILG, NSCB, and CBMS Network but excluding DSWD

Page 19 of 25

spearhead such an initiative? Shouldn’t it focus its energy more on activities

that will prevent the pork barrel scam from ever happening again, saving

precious resources that could have gone to ensuring that the benefits of

economic growth trickle down to the poor? Also, would it not serve

stakeholders of statistics better if the NSO devoted its time more towards a

more timely processing of the FIES so that poverty statistics could be

released in a more timely manner rather than getting involved in these

initiatives?

7. Sometime ago, during the budget deliberation for NEDA and its attached

agencies, a senator was persistently asking about the NSO certification on

the population count for a certain area, obviously wanting the count to be

higher for purposes of congressional districting. Was this an attempt to

influence NSO into changing its estimate, thereby violating Principle 2,

otherwise its budget could be cut?

Other questions that can be raised are the following:

1. Sometime ago, the Office of the President “suggested” that the presscon for

the NA be held in Malacanang. The NSCB TS followed the “suggestion” but

this could lead to public perception that the estimates of the accounts are

influenced by Malacanang. Could this have been a violation of Principle 2?

2. A mid-decade census (PopCen) was supposed to have been conducted36 in

2005. However, the required budget was not appropriated for 2005; neither

was it appropriated for 2006. The government finally provided funds for 2007.

But a CPH37 was scheduled to be conducted in 2010, just three years after the

2007 PopCen. The question is, should a mid decade PopCen still be

conducted in 2007? The matter was taken up by the NSCB Executive Board

which decided in the affirmative38 despite the concern raised by the NSCB TS

about the wisdom of conducting two censuses of population within three years

of each other. Could this have been a violation of Principle 2? Or could the

35

During the NSCB/UNICEF Forum on Local-Level Statistics on Children held on 31 May 2013 36

The conduct of a mid decade Census of Population was first approved for 1995 under NSCB Board Resolution No. 6 Series of 1993, dated 30 May 1993. 37

Census of Population and Housing whose conduct is in accordance with Batas Pambansa Blg. 72 approved on 11 June 1980

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funds intended for the 2007 PopCen have been more wisely spent for other

statistical activities?

V. CONCLUSIONS & RECOMMENDATIONS

The statistical products and services, as well as the public trust in the PSS have

improved over the years. And there is no question that the PSS efforts to adhere to the FPOS

are commendable. But there are also areas for concern that should challenge the professional

statisticians in the country to strengthen their resolve to ensure that the PSS will continue to be

recognized by the international statistical community as one of the best NSS, at least among

developing countries. Toward this end, the following recommendations are made:

1. Official statisticians must be aware that the independence, objectivity, integrity and

professionalism in the PSS must not only happen – they must be perceived to happen. The

credibility of and public trust on the PSS are necessary to convince stakeholders to support

statistics.

2. The Chief Statistician must learn to develop the ability to deal with politics and politicians but

must remain apolitical.

3. Official statisticians must recognize that the media are a powerful partner for statistical

advocacy; linkages with them must continue to be enriched. The media can help

significantly towards convergence of public perception and reality in the generation of official

statistics.

4. Existing good/best statistical practices such as the interagency and international

collaboration, the ARC, the For the Record section of the NSCB website, and the generation

of metadata and microdata (public use files) among others, must continue to be

implemented and further enhanced. They strengthen adherence to the FPOS and enhance

the credibility of the PSS.

5. Statistical offices must proactively respond to evolving user needs to enhance their

relevance.

6. The Philippine Statistical Development Program must be a dynamic and flexible blueprint of

statistical activities to be conducted in the medium term to serve the country’s development

agenda but its formulation must be the sole responsibility of the statisticians..

38

Through NSCB Resolution No. 6 Series of 2007, dated 26 April 2007.

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7. Statistical curricula should require courses on official statistics. Many graduates of statistics

work in government and they must be made aware of the responsibilities of official

statisticians.

8. Some agencies of government that seem to be getting obsessed with getting involved in

statistical/registry initiatives should leave these activities to agencies with the appropriate

mandate.

9. The statistical community should take a collective stand on the Freedom of Information Act

and on other relevant concerns that will come up in the future. Intelligent engagement in

public debate on very important issues can only enhance public appreciation for statistics.

10. Congress and those who help craft statistical laws must have a genuine and selfless desire

to improve the PSS. Merger of the NSO, NSCB, BAS, and BLES is definitely not the way to

go. It will not solve the problems now faced by these organizations; it may even make them

worse. In this regard, an autonomous and independent statistical commission not attached

to NEDA will be a much better alternative than the Philippine Statistical Authority envisioned

in the bill approved by Congress.

11. The government thru DBM/Congress should upgrade the salaries of official statisticians.

12. Demand for statistics has risen exponentially since the onset of the Third Millennium. Users

of statistics have become much more sophisticated and require innovative statistical

products and services. To be able to address these concerns, government as well as the

private sector must develop a genuine political will to invest on statistics, invest on

statisticians, and invest on statistical offices.

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ACRONYMS

ARC Advance Release Calendar BAS Bureau of Agricultural Statistics BLES Bureau of Labor and Employment Statistics BSP Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas CPI Consumer Price Index DBM Department of Budget and Management DENR Department of Environment and Natural Resources DepEd Department of Education DG Director General DOH Department of Health DOT Department of Tourism DSWD Department of Social Welfare and Development FPOS Fundamental Principles of Official Statistics GDP Gross Domestic Product IMF International Monetary Fund ISI International Statistical Institute LEI Leading Economic Indicators NA National Accounts NCS National Convention on Statistics NEDA National Economic and Development Authority NHTSPR National Household Targeting System for Poverty Reduction NSCB National Statistical Coordination Board NSO National Statistics Office NSS National Statistical System PSDP Philippine Statistical Development Program PSS Philippine Statistical System RSS Royal Statistical Society RSBSA Registry System for the Basic Sectors in Agriculture SC Steering Committee SDS System of Designated Statistics SG Secretary General SONA State of the Nation Address TC Povstat

Technical Committee on Poverty Statistics

TS Technical Staff UN United Nations UNSC United Nations Statistical Commission UNSD United Nations Statistics Division

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REFERENCES

[1] Executive Order No. 352

[2] NSCB, “Guidelines on the Dissemination of Advance Release Calendar”.

[3] United Nations Statistics Division. Handbook of Statistical Organization, Third Edition. Series in Methods, Series F No. 88. 2003

[4] United Nations Statistics Division. Implementation of the Fundamental Principles of Official Statistics, Background document prepared for the 44th Session of the UNSC, 2013

[5] http://bbsc.worldbank.org/bbsc/SearchEngine?parameter=searchByCountry [6] http://www.dbm.gov.ph/?p=5229 [7] http://www.economist.com/node/21548229 [8] http://www.forbes.com/sites/matthewherper/2013/05/08/the-next-billionaire-a-

statistician-who-changed-medicine/ [9] http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2013/06/25/wayne-smith-statscan-household-

survey_n_3494527.html [10] http://www.isi-web.org/recent-pages/43-about/about/445-methodological-concerns-

argentine-cpi [11] http://www.mcclatchydc.com/2012/01/31/137470/blaming-the-messenger-

greeces.html#.UhxgAH9ELsc [12] The McKinsey Quarterly -

http://www.mckinsey.com/insights/innovation/hal_varian_on_how_the_web_challenges_managers

[13] University of California in Berkeley; http://newscenter.berkeley.edu/2013/04/16/from-geeky-to-cool-statistics-is-berkeleys-fastest-growing-major/

[14] http://www.nscb.gov.ph [15] http://www.nscb.gov.ph/headlines/StatsSpeak/2008/111008_rav_statcoordination.as

p

[16] The Wall Street Journal, Asia Edition http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20130327-707122.html

[17] www.spiegel.de/international/europe/chief-greek-statist... [18] http://unstats.un.org/unsd/dnss/gp/FP-New-E.pdf [19] http://unstats.un.org/unsd/methods/statorg/default.htm [20] UN Statistical Commission: http://unstats.un.org/unsd/statcom/commission.htm [21] http://unstats.un.org/unsd/statcom/statcom_2011/Seminars/High_level_forum/default.

html [22] http://www.rssenews.org.uk/2013/02/rss-president-urges-scrupulously-fair-hearing-

for-greeces-chief-statistician-facing-felony-charges/

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