Improving our Improving our Understanding and Understanding and

Prediction of Hydrology Prediction of Hydrology and Water Resources in and Water Resources in

Western CanadaWestern Canada

John PomeroyJohn PomeroyCanada Research Chair in Water Resources & Climate Change, Canada Research Chair in Water Resources & Climate Change,

Director, Centre for Hydrology, University of Saskatchewan, SaskDirector, Centre for Hydrology, University of Saskatchewan, Saskatoonatoonand collaboratorsand collaborators

Alain Pietroniro Alain Pietroniro (Environment Canada), (Environment Canada), Richard EsseryRichard Essery (University of Wales)(University of Wales)

and studentsand studentsChad Ellis, Warren Helgason, Xing Fang, Robert Armstrong, Dan Chad Ellis, Warren Helgason, Xing Fang, Robert Armstrong, Dan BewleyBewley, ,

Chris Chris DeBeerDeBeer, Pablo , Pablo DornesDornes, Nicholas , Nicholas KinarKinar, , GroGro LilbaekLilbaek, Jimmy MacDonald, Jimmy MacDonaldwww.usask.cawww.usask.ca/hydrology/hydrology

Centre for Hydrology ResearchCentre for Hydrology ResearchWater Resources and Climate ChangeWater Resources and Climate Change. Research on global water . Research on global water and energy cycling, hydrology in climate models, snow and ice, and energy cycling, hydrology in climate models, snow and ice, hydrological models.hydrological models.Prairie, Boreal and Arctic HydrologyPrairie, Boreal and Arctic Hydrology. Research on the . Research on the Saskatchewan River Basin, Mackenzie River Basin, drought, Saskatchewan River Basin, Mackenzie River Basin, drought, wetlands, groundwater, soil water relationships, hydroecology, fwetlands, groundwater, soil water relationships, hydroecology, forest orest hydrology, cold regions hydrology.hydrology, cold regions hydrology.Safe WaterSafe Water. Research on drinking water toxicology, aquatic biology, . Research on drinking water toxicology, aquatic biology, agricultural water quality, water pathways, pollutant effects onagricultural water quality, water pathways, pollutant effects onaquatic ecosystem health, development of software tools to relataquatic ecosystem health, development of software tools to relate e changes in water quality and quantity to human development. changes in water quality and quantity to human development. Effects of the Mining Sector on Water ResourcesEffects of the Mining Sector on Water Resources. Research on . Research on mine reclamation with respect to water quality and quantity on mine reclamation with respect to water quality and quantity on uranium mines, tar sands, northern development. Research on theuranium mines, tar sands, northern development. Research on theeffects of the discharges of mine effluents on aquatic biota andeffects of the discharges of mine effluents on aquatic biota andwater quality.water quality.

Major Issues for Hydrology in Major Issues for Hydrology in Western CanadaWestern Canada

Cold regions hydrology Cold regions hydrology -- mountain and northern mountain and northern derived runoff dominates large rivers derived runoff dominates large rivers Prairie hydrology Prairie hydrology –– source of soil moisture, source of soil moisture, groundwater and local streams, lakes and pondsgroundwater and local streams, lakes and pondsChangeChange

Climate Change Climate Change ––warming, wetting, drying, extremes warming, wetting, drying, extremes DroughtDroughtFloodingFlooding

Land Use Change Land Use Change ––Agricultural cropping, tillage and drainageAgricultural cropping, tillage and drainageForest clearing and change from harvesting and diseaseForest clearing and change from harvesting and disease

Critical ProblemCritical Problem

Despite +40 years of hydrology researchDespite +40 years of hydrology research……

increased water use, better defined increased water use, better defined ecosystem needs and unprecedented ecosystem needs and unprecedented changes in water and climate systems changes in water and climate systems mean that the current understanding and mean that the current understanding and predictive capability of western Canadian predictive capability of western Canadian hydrology is hydrology is inadequateinadequate to answer current to answer current and near future water resource and near future water resource management questions.management questions.

Overview: CRC Research at Centre for Overview: CRC Research at Centre for HydrologyHydrology

OBJECTIVEOBJECTIVETo better understand, describe and model the hydrological cycle To better understand, describe and model the hydrological cycle and its and its underlying processes in the Prairies, Forests and Mountains of Wunderlying processes in the Prairies, Forests and Mountains of Western estern CanadaCanada

FOCUS FOCUS –– evaluation and sensitivity to variation of evaluation and sensitivity to variation of climate and land use of:climate and land use of:

Snow Accumulation and RedistributionSnow Accumulation and RedistributionInfiltration to Frozen SoilsInfiltration to Frozen SoilsSnowmelt RunoffSnowmelt RunoffEvaporationEvaporationRainfallRainfallStreamflow and water storageStreamflow and water storageIntegrated basin responseIntegrated basin response

ApproachApproachPhysically Based Hydrological ModellingPhysically Based Hydrological ModellingImproved observational methods and instrumentationImproved observational methods and instrumentationIntensive field observations of physical processesIntensive field observations of physical processes

Programme ElementsProgramme ElementsIP3 IP3 –– Improved Processes and Parameterisation Improved Processes and Parameterisation for Prediction in Cold Regionsfor Prediction in Cold Regions, CFCAS Network , CFCAS Network for cold regions hydrology and meteorologyfor cold regions hydrology and meteorologyDRI DRI –– Drought Research InitiativeDrought Research Initiative, CFCAS , CFCAS Network for dynamical studies of prairie drought Network for dynamical studies of prairie drought SGI Canada Hydrometeorology ProgrammeSGI Canada Hydrometeorology Programme ––extreme prairie hydrometeorology and extreme prairie hydrometeorology and anticipated changes due to a changing climateanticipated changes due to a changing climatePrairie Hydrological Model StudyPrairie Hydrological Model Study –– land use and land use and drainage change in a prairie basin and impacts drainage change in a prairie basin and impacts on streamflow and wetlandson streamflow and wetlands

John Pomeroy, John Pomeroy, (Saskatchewan),(Saskatchewan),Sean Carey Sean Carey (Carleton),(Carleton),

Richard Essery Richard Essery (Wales),(Wales),Raoul Granger Raoul Granger (NWRI/EC),(NWRI/EC),Masaki Hayashi Masaki Hayashi (Calgary),(Calgary),

Rick Janowicz Rick Janowicz (Yukon Environment),(Yukon Environment),Phil Marsh Phil Marsh (Saskatchewan/EC),(Saskatchewan/EC),

Scott Munro Scott Munro (Toronto),(Toronto),Alain Pietroniro Alain Pietroniro (Saskatchewan/EC),(Saskatchewan/EC),

William Quinton William Quinton ((WilfridWilfrid Laurier),Laurier),Ken Snelgrove Ken Snelgrove (Newfoundland),(Newfoundland),

RicRic Soulis Soulis (Waterloo),(Waterloo),Chris Spence Chris Spence (Saskatchewan/EC), (Saskatchewan/EC),

Diana Verseghy Diana Verseghy (Waterloo/EC)(Waterloo/EC)

and 16 collaborators fromand 16 collaborators from

Environment Canada, Environment Canada, Alberta Environment, Alberta Environment,

Indian & Northern Affairs Canada, Indian & Northern Affairs Canada, Natural Resources Canada, Natural Resources Canada,

UnivUniv Guelph, Univ Idaho, Guelph, Univ Idaho, UnivUniv Saskatchewan, Saskatchewan, UnivUniv Western Ontario, Western Ontario,

UnivUniv Waterloo, Waterloo, USDAUSDA--ARSARS

A Research Network of the

http://www.usask.ca/ip3

IP3 IP3 –– Goals and Theme StructureGoals and Theme Structure

Theme 1 Processes:Theme 1 Processes: Advance our understanding Advance our understanding of of cold regions hydrometeorological processescold regions hydrometeorological processesTheme 2 ParameterisationTheme 2 Parameterisation Develop mathematical Develop mathematical parameterisationparameterisation of cold regions processes for small to of cold regions processes for small to medium scales medium scales Theme 3 PredictionTheme 3 Prediction Evaluate and demonstrate Evaluate and demonstrate improved hydrological and atmospheric predictionimproved hydrological and atmospheric prediction at at regional and smaller scales in the cold regions of regional and smaller scales in the cold regions of Canada Canada UltimatelyUltimately –– contribute to contribute to multiscale assessment of multiscale assessment of coupled climate system, weather and water resourcescoupled climate system, weather and water resources in in cold regionscold regions

IP3 IP3 Research BasinsResearch Basins

Trail Valley Creek, arctic tundra

Havikpak Creek, taiga woodland

Baker Creek, Subarctic shield lakes

Wolf Creek, subarctic tundra cordillera

Scotty Creek, permafrost wetlands

Lake O’Hara, wet alpine

Marmot Creek, Dry subalpine

Peyto Creek, glacierized alpine

IP3 BackgroundIP3 BackgroundDeclining annual or earlier peak dischargeDeclining annual or earlier peak discharge in in many cold regions streams and rivers (Rockies many cold regions streams and rivers (Rockies and Northern Canada)and Northern Canada)Increasing consumptive useIncreasing consumptive use of Rocky Mountain of Rocky Mountain water in Prairie Provinceswater in Prairie ProvincesUncertainty in engineering designUncertainty in engineering design for small to for small to medium size medium size ‘‘ungaugedungauged’’ basins undergoing basins undergoing resource development and restoration (oil & gas, resource development and restoration (oil & gas, diamond mines, other mines)diamond mines, other mines)Opportunity to couple atmosphericOpportunity to couple atmospheric--hydrological hydrological modelsmodels with cold regions components for with cold regions components for forecasting weather generation, streamflow to forecasting weather generation, streamflow to Arctic Ocean, flooding, improved climatologyArctic Ocean, flooding, improved climatology

Date of Spring FreshetDate of Spring FreshetHay River at Hay RiverDate of Annual Freshet Peak

90

120

150

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Year

Julia

n D

ay

May

April

Mackenzie River at Fort SimpsonDate of Annual Peak Discharge

120

150

180

210

1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Year

Julia

n D

ay

May

June

July

Courtesy Derek Faria, INAC

‘‘NaturalNatural’’ and Actual Flowand Actual Flow of South of South Saskatchewan River leaving AlbertaSaskatchewan River leaving Alberta

-Hydrology Change: Decline of natural flow by 1.2 billion m3 over 90 years (-12%)-Consumption of 7%-42% of natural flows during last 15 years-Combined: Actual decline of 1.1 billion m3 over 30 years (-15%) in actual flow,-Combined: Actual decline of 4 billion m3 over 90 years (-40%) in actual flow, -Note 70% of actual decline is due to consumption, 30% of decline is due to hydrology

02,000,000,0004,000,000,0006,000,000,0008,000,000,000

10,000,000,00012,000,000,00014,000,000,00016,000,000,00018,000,000,000

1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Year

Ann

ual F

low

m3

Natural Actual

South Saskatchewan River is most South Saskatchewan River is most strongly affected by Gardiner Damstrongly affected by Gardiner Dam

0

300

600

900

J F M A M J J A S O N D

month

disc

harg

e (m

3 s-1

)

1912 - 19581967 - 1993

South Saskatchewan River at Saskatoonhydrometric station 05HG001

Marmot Creek Research BasinMarmot Creek Research BasinKananaskis Valley, Alberta 1450Kananaskis Valley, Alberta 1450--2886 m.a.s.l.2886 m.a.s.l.HeadwatersHeadwatersof Bow Riverof Bow River+600 mm+600 mmprecipitationprecipitation70% snowfall70% snowfall~50% runoff~50% runofffrom snowfrom snow

classic classic mountain mountain water water resourcesresources

Marmot Basin

Bow River valley

Kananaskis River valley

x x

xx

xx x

xx

Alpine Blowing Snow: Flow Separation Alpine Blowing Snow: Flow Separation

0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 30000

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 30000

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

Linear simulation of westerly flow over Wolf Creek, Yukon

Windspeed Direction

3 km

Essery and Pomeroy, in preparation

3 km

Simulation of Hillslope Snowdrift

Distributed Blowing Snow Model - Essery, Li & Pomeroy 1999 Hydrological Processes

Mountain Drift Simulation Mountain Drift Simulation

1340

1360

1380

1400

1420

0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400

Horizontal distance (m)

Ele

vatio

n (m

) AltimeterDEM

Wind

0

50

100

150

200

0 100 200 300 400

Horizontal distance (m)

SW

E (m

m)

ObservedSimulated

Snow InterceptionSnow Interception

Leaf + stem area index Leaf + stem area index (surface to collect snow)(surface to collect snow)Air temperature (elasticity Air temperature (elasticity of branch, adhesion and of branch, adhesion and cohesion of snow)cohesion of snow)Wind speed (particle Wind speed (particle trajectory, impact rate, trajectory, impact rate, branch bending, branch bending, scouring)scouring)Unloading from warm and Unloading from warm and windy eventswindy events

Hedstrom and Pomeroy, 1998

Intercepted Snow SublimationIntercepted Snow Sublimation

Pomeroy, Parviainen, Hedstrom, Gray 1998 Hydrological Processes

Forest Snow Interception LossForest Snow Interception LossFirFir--Spruce Forest vs. Small ClearingSpruce Forest vs. Small Clearing

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

North South East West

Sno

w W

ater

Equ

ival

ent m

m ForestClearing

Suggests that 61% of snowfall was sublimated from intercepted snow

Marmot Creek, March 2006

SnowmeltSnowmeltImproved Methods to Improved Methods to Estimate Short and Estimate Short and Longwave RadiationLongwave RadiationTerrain Effects on Terrain Effects on RadiationRadiationTerrain Effects on Terrain Effects on Turbulent TransferTurbulent TransferForest Canopies Forest Canopies ––radiation effectsradiation effectsCombined Forest Canopy Combined Forest Canopy and Slope Effects and Slope Effects --radiationradiation

Turbulence generation Turbulence generation mechanisms in mountainsmechanisms in mountains

upper level winds

valley winds

surface winds (internal B-L)tributary valley

winds

flux tower in clearing

strong shear zone

transported turbulence

Roughness Length (zRoughness Length (z0m0m))

0 10 20 30 4010

-6

10-5

10-4

10-3

10-2

10-1

100

U u* -1

z0m

(m)

Prairie

0 10 20 30 4010

-6

10-5

10-4

10-3

10-2

10-1

100

U u* -1

z0m

(m)

Alpine Ridge

0 10 20 30 4010

-6

10-5

10-4

10-3

10-2

10-1

100

U u* -1

z0m

(m)

Lake

0 10 20 30 4010

-6

10-5

10-4

10-3

10-2

10-1

100

U u* -1

z0m

(m)

Meadow

( )⎥⎦

⎤⎢⎣

⎡−⎟⎠⎞

⎜⎝⎛= ζψmmz

zku

U0

ln1*

0 < ζ < 0.1

expected range for snow

Helgason and Pomeroy, in preparation

Incoming Longwave in MountainsIncoming Longwave in Mountains

0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1Vf

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Ts (°

C)

Percent increase in longwave irradiance due to terrain emission due to sky view factor (Vf) and surface temperature (Ts).

Air temperature is 0°C and the clear sky emissivity is 0.65

Sicart et al. 2006 Hydrological Processes Thermal IR Image

Sky View Factor

Psychrometric Outgoing Longwave Psychrometric Outgoing Longwave Formulation for SnowFormulation for Snow

-40-35

-30-25

-20-15

-10-5

05

1017-Feb 22-Feb 27-Feb 03-Mar 08-Mar 13-Mar 18-Mar

SST

C

irtcmodel

( ) ( )[ ]apa

asaaaas rLcT

rPTQQLTLWTT/)(

/,3

sat4

ρεσρσε

Δ++−+−↓

+=

Pomeroy et al., in preparation

0

100

200

300

400

74 75 76

Day (2005)

SW

(W/m

2 )

0

200

400

600

800

1000

123 124 125

Day (2003)

SW (W

/m2 )

Solar Radiation to Snow beneath Shrubs and Trees

Tall

Shr

ubs

Mar

mot

Cre

ek le

vel f

ores

t

azimuth angle

elev

atio

n an

gle

0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9

8570

5540

2510

50 100 200 250 300 350150

South Face Forest

azimuth angle

elev

atio

n an

gle x

0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8

8570

5540

2510

50 100 200 250 300 350150

North Face Forest

Solar Transmission throughSolar Transmission throughSloping Forest CanopiesSloping Forest Canopies

Transmissivity isa function of LAI,Foliage inclinationCrown coverageSlope, Aspect, Solar azimuth, Solar elevation

Ellis and Pomeroy,2007

JD86 Cloudy

JD87 Sunny

11.40 14:20 17.00

Hot Canopy and Trunks Increase Forest Hot Canopy and Trunks Increase Forest Longwave RadiationLongwave Radiation

CLPX LSOS Open Canopy IOP1

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

50 50.5 51 51.5 52 52.5 53 53.5 54Julian Day 2002

Tem

pera

ture

(TC) C

Canopy NorthTrunkSnow SurfaceCanopy South

Rowlands, Pomeroy, Hardy, Marks, Link, Essery 2002 Proc. Eastern Snow Conference

Net Radiation to Snowmelt on 25Net Radiation to Snowmelt on 25oo Forest Forest Slopes, Marmot Creek Research BasinSlopes, Marmot Creek Research Basin

Ellis, Pomeroy, Essery, Link submission to Canadian Journal of Forest Research

Cum

ulat

ive

Net

Rad

iatio

n M

J m

-2

South Facing Forest Slope

Level Clearing

Level & North Facing Forest Slopes

Synchronised Melt Synchronised Melt –– high high discharge eventdischarge event

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140

Julian Day- 1995

Cum

ulat

ive

Mel

t Ene

rgy

(kJ)

Shrub Tundra

Forest Alpine

Sequential Melt Sequential Melt –– low discharge low discharge eventevent

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

45000

50000

100 105 110 115 120 125 130Julian Days - 1998

Cum

ulat

ive

Mel

t Ene

rgy

(kJ)

Shrub Tundra

Alpine

Forest

PredictionPredictionCold Cold Regions Regions Hydrology Hydrology Model at Model at basin scalebasin scaleLand surface Land surface hydrology hydrology model model evaluation evaluation and and developmentdevelopmentEvaluation of Evaluation of GEMGEM--LAM LAM and CRCMand CRCM

Mackenzie Basin

Peace-Athabasca Sub Basin (Mackenzie)

Saskatchewan BasinColumbia River

Basin

1

2

3

4

5

Wolf Creek(Subarctic Tundra

Cordillrea)

Scotty Creek(Permafrost Wetlands)

Baker Creek(Subarctic Shield

Lakes)

Trail Valley Creek (Arctic Tundra)

Havikpak Creek(Taiga Woodland)

Lake O'Hara(Wet Alpine)

Marmot Creek(Subalpine Forest)

RCM Domain

GEM Domain North

GEM Domain South1

24

Peyto Creek(Glaciated Alpine)

5

3

Cold Regions Hydrology on Complex TerrainCold Regions Hydrology on Complex Terrain

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Mean Energy (W/m2)

ValleyBottom

South Face North Face

Melt + InternalNet RadiationGround HeatSensible HeatLatent Heat

20o slopesSouth Face

North FaceValley Bottom

ScalingScalingResolution 1 m 100 m 100 m - 2 km 2 - 10 km 10 km - 10 km

Landscape type Pattern/tileTile/HRU Tile/HRU Grid/small basin Multi-grid/medium basin Multi-gridPoint Hillslope Sub-basin Basin Mesoscale Regional;

Prediction TerrestrialOpen WaterSnow and Ice

Parametrization TerrestrialOpen WaterSnow and Ice

Process TerrestrialOpen WaterSnow and Ice

MESH MESH MESH MESHMODELS CHRM CHRM CHRM CHRM

CEOP Hydrology CEOP HydrologyQuinton CFCAS Study---------------> <----------------------------------MAGS

IP3 Scaling Methodology

Previous LSS Scaling Methodology

Integrating the TOP DOWN and BOTTOM UP approaches

ModModéélisation Environnementale Communautaire,lisation Environnementale Communautaire,MECMEC

Atmosphericmodel (3D)

Surface

Hydrological

“On-line”mode

“Off-line”mode

Atmospheric

scheme (1D)

Hydrologicalmodel (2D)

“On-line”mode

“Off-line”modeExtracted atmospheric

model forcings

Hydrological model (lumped or 2D)with its own LSS

Atmosphericmodel (3D)with its own

surface scheme (1D)

THE DRI TEAMTHE DRI TEAMCoCo--leadsleads: : Ron Stewart (Ron Stewart (McGillMcGill) and John Pomeroy () and John Pomeroy (SaskSask))

Network Manager:Network Manager:Rick Lawford (Manitoba)Rick Lawford (Manitoba)

Information Managers:Information Managers:Matt Matt RegierRegier (HAL, EC), Patrice Constance (Ouranos)(HAL, EC), Patrice Constance (Ouranos)

Investigators (13)Investigators (13): : Bonsal (Bonsal (Sask/NHRCSask/NHRC), Bullock (), Bullock (ManMan), Gyakum (), Gyakum (McGillMcGill), Hanesiak (), Hanesiak (ManMan), Hayashi (), Hayashi (CalgCalg), ), Leighton (Leighton (McGillMcGill), Lin (), Lin (McGillMcGill), Pietroniro (), Pietroniro (Sask/NHRCSask/NHRC), Snelgrove (), Snelgrove (Memorial)Memorial), Strong , Strong ((AltaAlta), van der Kamp (), van der Kamp (Sask/NHRCSask/NHRC), Wheaton (), Wheaton (Sask/SRCSask/SRC), Woodbury (), Woodbury (ManMan))

Collaborators (14)Collaborators (14)::Boer (Boer (MSCMSC), ), CayaCaya ((OuranosOuranos), Derome (), Derome (McGillMcGill), ), DerksenDerksen ((MSCMSC), Donaldson (), Donaldson (MSCMSC), ), Granger (Granger (NHRCNHRC), Martz (), Martz (SaskSask), Raddatz (), Raddatz (MSCMSC), Ritchie (), Ritchie (MSCMSC), ), ShabbarShabbar ((MSCMSC), Sills ), Sills ((MSCMSC), Smith (), Smith (MSCMSC), Szeto (), Szeto (MSCMSC), Walker (), Walker (MSCMSC) )

Research expertise covers critical areas for DRIResearch expertise covers critical areas for DRISolid track record of working together as well as being in and lSolid track record of working together as well as being in and leading networkseading networks

OBJECTIVE OF DRI OBJECTIVE OF DRI

To better understand the physical To better understand the physical characteristics of and processes characteristics of and processes influencing Canadian Prairie droughts, influencing Canadian Prairie droughts, and to contribute to their better and to contribute to their better prediction, through a focus on the prediction, through a focus on the recent severe drought that began in recent severe drought that began in 19991999

DRI THEMESDRI THEMES1.1. QuantifyQuantify the physical featuresthe physical features, ,

flows of water and energy into and out of the region, and flows of water and energy into and out of the region, and storage and redistribution within the regionstorage and redistribution within the region

2.2. Improve the understandingImprove the understanding of processes and feedbacks of processes and feedbacks governing the governing the

formation, formation, evolution, evolution, cessation and cessation and structure of the droughtstructure of the drought

3.3. Assess and reduce uncertainties in the Assess and reduce uncertainties in the prediction of droughtprediction of drought4.4. Compare the similarities and differences of current drought Compare the similarities and differences of current drought

to previous droughts and those in other regionsto previous droughts and those in other regions5.5. Apply our progress to address critical issues of importance Apply our progress to address critical issues of importance

to society to society

1. QUANTIFY THE DROUGHT1. QUANTIFY THE DROUGHT

Saskatoon

Swift Current

Calgary

Red Deer

Lethbridge

Drumheller

Medicine Hat

Gem

Olds

Verlo

Tyner

Orton

Hague

Cluny

Bruno

Warner

Warman

Ponoka

Instow

Elnora

Barons

Vanscoy

Swanson

Sibbald

Pakowki

Okotoks

Enchant

Duchess

Cypress

Blucher

Stettler

Mud Lake

Irricana

Elkwater

Conquest

Cessford

Shaunavon

Saskatoon

Pine LakeInnisfail

Gull Lake Duck Lake

Cavendish

Carseland

Big Stone

Oldman Dam

High River

Hand Hills

Del Bonita

Sylvan Lake

Dickson Dam

Smith Coulee

Many Springs

Buffalo LakeBuffalo Lake

Buffalo North

Sounding Creek

Crestomere Lake

Kirkpatrick Lake

Forty Mile Coulee

Legend

Observation Well Location

0 30 60 90 12015Kilometers

Observational Networks

GRACEsatellite

Wells in South Saskatchewan

200 mSurface Storage Change

2. UNDERSTAND THE DROUGHT2. UNDERSTAND THE DROUGHTV

ertic

al S

cale

Storage of Water

Drought

Non-drought

Horizontal Flux of Water

Non-drought

Drought

3. SIMULATE AND PREDICT THE 3. SIMULATE AND PREDICT THE DROUGHTDROUGHT

AGCM3 200 km

CRCM4 45 km

CLASS, WATCLASS / MESH 15 km

CPM, CRHM 1 km

Global Climate model

Land Surface Hydrology Models

GEM 15 km

NWP Model

Hydrological Process Models

GEM-LAM 2.5 km

Cloud-Resolving ModelRegional Climate Model

Global Reanalysis

Forcings and Initial conditions

Regional Analysis & obs

Process Parameterizations

(for LDAS)

LDAS

LDAS data flow

Effect of Blowing Snow Sublimation Effect of Blowing Snow Sublimation on Prairie Snow Supply on Prairie Snow Supply (mm SWE)(mm SWE)

LocationLocation StubbleStubble--fieldfield FallowFallow--fieldfieldCalgaryCalgary 19.719.7 37.537.5Peace RiverPeace River 6.66.6 7.67.6Swift CurrentSwift Current 28.228.2 37.837.8Prince AlbertPrince Albert 24.924.9 29.629.6ReginaRegina 39.439.4 48.148.1YorktonYorkton 18.618.6 28.628.6PortagePortage 23.523.5 33.833.8WinnipegWinnipeg 27.427.4 36.536.5

Pomeroy and Gray, NHRI Science Report No. 7 (1995) 1970-1976 hourly simulations

Sensitivity of Blowing Snow Sensitivity of Blowing Snow Sublimation to DroughtSublimation to Drought

Drought winters are presumed to have lower snowfall, Drought winters are presumed to have lower snowfall, increased air temperatures, lower vegetation heights increased air temperatures, lower vegetation heights (shorter grass or fallow), and drier soils than normal (shorter grass or fallow), and drier soils than normal winters.winters.Sensitivity of modelled blowing snow to these changes Sensitivity of modelled blowing snow to these changes was tested using the Bad Lake archive. was tested using the Bad Lake archive. Note that the 1999Note that the 1999--2004 drought sometimes displayed 2004 drought sometimes displayed colder winters* than normalcolder winters* than normal

*winter is Oct*winter is Oct--AprilApril

Effect of Warmer Winter on Blowing Snow Effect of Warmer Winter on Blowing Snow Sublimation and Snow Accumulation Sublimation and Snow Accumulation –– Bad LakeBad Lake

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

01/10/1974 31/10/1974 30/11/1974 30/12/1974 29/01/1975 28/02/1975 30/03/1975 29/04/1975

mm

wat

er e

quiv

alen

t

SWE (Normal)

SWE(5 C Rise in Temp)

Sublimation (Normal)

Sublimation (5 C Rise in Temp)

Fang and Pomeroy, 2007

Effect of Drier Winter on Blowing Snow Effect of Drier Winter on Blowing Snow Sublimation and Snow AccumulationSublimation and Snow Accumulation

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

01/10/1974 31/10/1974 30/11/1974 30/12/1974 29/01/1975 28/02/1975 30/03/1975 29/04/1975

mm

wat

er e

quiv

alen

t

SWE (Normal)

SWE(50% Decrease in Snowfall)

Sublimation (Normal)

Sublimation (5 0% Decrease in

Spatially Distributed Snow RedistributionSpatially Distributed Snow Redistribution

Snow mass balance equation

St Denis, Saskatchewan

Results Results –– Spatially distributed SWESpatially distributed SWE

Fang and Pomeroy, Hydrol Proc, in preparation

Spatially distributed SWE contSpatially distributed SWE cont’’

Spatially distributed SWE contSpatially distributed SWE cont’’

Spatially distributed SWE contSpatially distributed SWE cont’’

Spatially distributed SWE contSpatially distributed SWE cont’’

Spatially distributed SWE contSpatially distributed SWE cont’’

Spatially distributed SWE contSpatially distributed SWE cont’’

Spatially distributed SWE contSpatially distributed SWE cont’’

Spatially distributed SWE contSpatially distributed SWE cont’’

Spatial Pattern of Blowing Snow SublimationSpatial Pattern of Blowing Snow Sublimation

Distributed Distributed vsvs Aggregated SimulationAggregated Simulation

Bad Lake Bad Lake –– Creighton Tributary Water Balance Creighton Tributary Water Balance

-500

-400

-300

-200

-100

0

100

200

300

400

500Fallow Stubble Coulee Basin

mm

wat

er e

quiv

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SnowfallRainfallRunoffSublimationDrifting SnowEvaporation

With 30% Summer Fallow

Pomeroy, De Boer, Martz (2007)

Changed to Changed to Continuous Continuous

Grain Grain CroppingCropping

-400

-300

-200

-100

0

100

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400

500Stubble Coulee Basin

mm

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SnowfallRainfallRunoffSublimationDrifting SnowEvaporation

-4 0 -2 0 0 2 0 4 0 6 0

ra in fa l l

s n o w fa ll

e va p o ra t io n

d rift

s u b lim a t io n

s n o w m e lt

in fi l t ra t io n

ru n o ff

% C h a n g e

Snowmelt Runoff over Frozen SoilsSnowmelt Runoff over Frozen SoilsSemi-arid SW Saskatchewan

Soil moisture is FALL soil moisture

Snowmelt runoff isSpring

Physically basedInfiltration equations(Zhao & Gray, 1999)

Cold Regions Hydrological Model

Wetter and then Drier: Surprise!Wetter and then Drier: Surprise!

ToyraToyra et al. 2004: median of three most reliable et al. 2004: median of three most reliable climate change scenarios (ECHAM4, HadCM3 climate change scenarios (ECHAM4, HadCM3 and NCARand NCAR--PCM) suggest a rise in annual winter PCM) suggest a rise in annual winter temperature and precipitation from the 1961temperature and precipitation from the 1961--1990 average of 2.6 1990 average of 2.6 ººC and 11% by 2050, and C and 11% by 2050, and to 4.7 to 4.7 ººC and 15.5% by 2080.C and 15.5% by 2080.Using this median scenario in Bad Lake Using this median scenario in Bad Lake Research Basin results in a Research Basin results in a 24% rise in 205024% rise in 2050and and 37% drop37% drop in 2080, compared to the basin in 2080, compared to the basin runoff (54 mm) in spring of 1975. runoff (54 mm) in spring of 1975.

This was only a sampling of results, This was only a sampling of results, other workother work

Actual evaporation calculation for complex environments Actual evaporation calculation for complex environments –– ArmstrongArmstrongSnowmelt infiltration chemistry Snowmelt infiltration chemistry –– LilbaekLilbaekAcoustic measurement of snow depth and density Acoustic measurement of snow depth and density ––KinarKinarSpatial distribution of land surface hydrology models in Spatial distribution of land surface hydrology models in Arctic mountain basins Arctic mountain basins -- DornesDornesSnow covered area depletion in mountains Snow covered area depletion in mountains –– DeBeerDeBeerShrub tundra snowmelt Shrub tundra snowmelt -- BewleyBewleyInterception and unloading of mountain snow Interception and unloading of mountain snow ––MacDonaldMacDonald

Cold Regions Hydrological Model Development Cold Regions Hydrological Model Development –– BrownBrownResearch Basin Development Research Basin Development -- SolohubSolohub

ConclusionsConclusionsIncreased requirements for reducing predictive Increased requirements for reducing predictive uncertainty and changing conditions of climate and land uncertainty and changing conditions of climate and land use are presenting new challenges to hydrological use are presenting new challenges to hydrological science for water resources prediction.science for water resources prediction.A programme to study hydrology in the cold regions of A programme to study hydrology in the cold regions of the Rockies and North and the prairie region is focussing the Rockies and North and the prairie region is focussing on hydrological processes of the greatest uncertaintyon hydrological processes of the greatest uncertaintyPhysically based hydrological modelling is showing Physically based hydrological modelling is showing promise as a way to predict with reduced uncertainty promise as a way to predict with reduced uncertainty where data for calibration are sparsewhere data for calibration are sparseMajor research initiatives are underway to develop a Major research initiatives are underway to develop a predictive system for mountain hydrology and prairie and predictive system for mountain hydrology and prairie and link this to climate and weather prediction modelslink this to climate and weather prediction modelsThe next step is to apply this to conditions of changing The next step is to apply this to conditions of changing land use and changing climateland use and changing climate

Agricultural drainage and tillage changeAgricultural drainage and tillage changeClimate changeClimate change