1

Improvements to Statistical Forecast Models and the Satellite

Proving Ground for 2013

Mark DeMaria, John Knaff, NOAA/NESDIS/STAR

John Kaplan, Jason Dunion, NOAA/HRD

Andrea Schumacher, Kate Musgrave, CIRA/CSU

Buck Sampson, NRL

Chris Rozoff, Chris Velden, Sarah Monette, UW/CIMSS

Kevin Feuell, NASA/SPoRT

Informal Briefing to NHC

August 20, 2013

2

Outline1. SHIPS/LGEM

a. Updates for 2013

b. Experimental versions (SPICE and 7-day LGEM)

2. Wind speed probabilities

3. Rapid Intensification Index

1. Operational and experimental versions

4. JHT TCGI – Tropical Cyclone Genesis Index

5. The 2013 GOES-R proving grounda. Continuation of 2012 products

b. Possible new products for 2013

c. Modifications to lightning RII and Tropical Overshooting Tops

3

SHIPS/LGEM Updates• Only minor changes in 2013

– Moved to WCOSS (not minor in practice)• Includes some small bug fixes to OHC data, and

improved IR databases

– TC database from HURDAT2– 2012 cases added– Also includes Storm Type, RII, SEF, AHI

• Suffering from the “Siege to Time”?– SHIPS sample 1982-2012

4

D-SHIPS and LGEM Operational Forecast Errors 2006-2012

5

Variance Reduction

• Vobs = V(t) – V(0)

• Verr = Vfcst - Vobs = Vfcst-Vobs

• so2 = Var(Vobs )

• se2 = Var(Verr )

• Variance Red. = 100(1-se2/so

2)

6

LGEM Variance Reduction Atlantic 2006-2012

7

SHIPS/LGEM Development

• JHT – Utilize new NCEP climate forecast reanalysis

• Better dependent, worse independent test results

– 7 day and Gulf-specific LGEM• Significant reformulation of LGEM with new MPI• Some real time tests expected in 2013

– New baseline models• Trajectory CLIPER (track, intensity to 10 days)• OCD5 – Decay SHIFOR in real time (WCOSS)

– Intensity Guidance on Guidance

8

SHIPS/LGEM Development

• HFIP – SPICE Model

• SHIPS/LGEM run off GFS, GFDL, HWRF, (COTI)• SHIPS/LGEM run off GFS Ensemble

– SHIPS/LGEM with ECMWF input• GOES-R

– Storm size prediction • With storm type, provides complete

intensity/structure forecast

Wind Speed Probability Model

• Transitioned to WCOSS – Significant effort by TSB and RAMMB

• Standardized code between NHC operational machines and ATCF– All code now includes 2008-2012 and same version of

model • Hybrid version with global ensemble tracks, MC

intensity/structure (HFIP products page)• Revive Hurricane Landfall Probability Applications

(HuLPA)

Hurricane Landfall Probability Application (HuLPA)

• User interface written for product testing– Hurricane Landfall Probability Applications (HuLPA)

– Java program as ATCF prototype

• Applications– Landfall timing/intensity

distributions

– Time of arrival/departure distributions of 34, 50 and 64 kt winds

– Integrated coastal probabilities

– Automated guidance for watches/warnings

– Plots of all 1000 realizations

Updated version is compatible with Redhat 5, has been provided to M. Brennan at NHC

11

5. GOES-R Proving Ground• Aug 1-Nov 30, 2013• Start with same basic products as 2012

– Hurricane Intensity Estimate (HIE)– Super Rapid Scan Operations – Research imagery from GOES-14– RGB air mass, Dust, SAL– Natural Color, Pseudo Natural Color – Lightning Based RII (updated algorithm) – Tropical Overshooting Tops (updated algorithm)

• Phase in 3 new products– MSG Convection and cloud top microphysics RGBs– S-NPP Day-Night Band

• J. Beven, M. Brennan, H. Cobb, NHC focal points• M. DeMaria and M. Folmer coordinators• Same web-based evaluation form as in 2013

12

Acknowledgments

• Joint Hurricane Testbed• GOES Program Office

– GIMPAP, GOES-R • JPSS Program Office• Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project• Naval Research Laboratory• NOAA/NESDIS and NOAA/OAR