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Improvements to Statistical Forecast Models and the Satellite
Proving Ground for 2013
Mark DeMaria, John Knaff, NOAA/NESDIS/STAR
John Kaplan, Jason Dunion, NOAA/HRD
Andrea Schumacher, Kate Musgrave, CIRA/CSU
Buck Sampson, NRL
Chris Rozoff, Chris Velden, Sarah Monette, UW/CIMSS
Kevin Feuell, NASA/SPoRT
Informal Briefing to NHC
August 20, 2013
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Outline1. SHIPS/LGEM
a. Updates for 2013
b. Experimental versions (SPICE and 7-day LGEM)
2. Wind speed probabilities
3. Rapid Intensification Index
1. Operational and experimental versions
4. JHT TCGI – Tropical Cyclone Genesis Index
5. The 2013 GOES-R proving grounda. Continuation of 2012 products
b. Possible new products for 2013
c. Modifications to lightning RII and Tropical Overshooting Tops
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SHIPS/LGEM Updates• Only minor changes in 2013
– Moved to WCOSS (not minor in practice)• Includes some small bug fixes to OHC data, and
improved IR databases
– TC database from HURDAT2– 2012 cases added– Also includes Storm Type, RII, SEF, AHI
• Suffering from the “Siege to Time”?– SHIPS sample 1982-2012
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D-SHIPS and LGEM Operational Forecast Errors 2006-2012
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Variance Reduction
• Vobs = V(t) – V(0)
• Verr = Vfcst - Vobs = Vfcst-Vobs
• so2 = Var(Vobs )
• se2 = Var(Verr )
• Variance Red. = 100(1-se2/so
2)
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LGEM Variance Reduction Atlantic 2006-2012
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SHIPS/LGEM Development
• JHT – Utilize new NCEP climate forecast reanalysis
• Better dependent, worse independent test results
– 7 day and Gulf-specific LGEM• Significant reformulation of LGEM with new MPI• Some real time tests expected in 2013
– New baseline models• Trajectory CLIPER (track, intensity to 10 days)• OCD5 – Decay SHIFOR in real time (WCOSS)
– Intensity Guidance on Guidance
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SHIPS/LGEM Development
• HFIP – SPICE Model
• SHIPS/LGEM run off GFS, GFDL, HWRF, (COTI)• SHIPS/LGEM run off GFS Ensemble
– SHIPS/LGEM with ECMWF input• GOES-R
– Storm size prediction • With storm type, provides complete
intensity/structure forecast
Wind Speed Probability Model
• Transitioned to WCOSS – Significant effort by TSB and RAMMB
• Standardized code between NHC operational machines and ATCF– All code now includes 2008-2012 and same version of
model • Hybrid version with global ensemble tracks, MC
intensity/structure (HFIP products page)• Revive Hurricane Landfall Probability Applications
(HuLPA)
Hurricane Landfall Probability Application (HuLPA)
• User interface written for product testing– Hurricane Landfall Probability Applications (HuLPA)
– Java program as ATCF prototype
• Applications– Landfall timing/intensity
distributions
– Time of arrival/departure distributions of 34, 50 and 64 kt winds
– Integrated coastal probabilities
– Automated guidance for watches/warnings
– Plots of all 1000 realizations
Updated version is compatible with Redhat 5, has been provided to M. Brennan at NHC
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5. GOES-R Proving Ground• Aug 1-Nov 30, 2013• Start with same basic products as 2012
– Hurricane Intensity Estimate (HIE)– Super Rapid Scan Operations – Research imagery from GOES-14– RGB air mass, Dust, SAL– Natural Color, Pseudo Natural Color – Lightning Based RII (updated algorithm) – Tropical Overshooting Tops (updated algorithm)
• Phase in 3 new products– MSG Convection and cloud top microphysics RGBs– S-NPP Day-Night Band
• J. Beven, M. Brennan, H. Cobb, NHC focal points• M. DeMaria and M. Folmer coordinators• Same web-based evaluation form as in 2013
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Acknowledgments
• Joint Hurricane Testbed• GOES Program Office
– GIMPAP, GOES-R • JPSS Program Office• Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project• Naval Research Laboratory• NOAA/NESDIS and NOAA/OAR
