implementation completion and results report (icr)...

Document of

The World Bank FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY

Report No: ICR00004480

IMPLEMENTATION COMPLETION AND RESULTS REPORT

CREDIT NO. 5037-LK

ON A

CREDIT

IN THE AMOUNT OF SDR 64.1 MILLION (US$100 MILLION EQUIVALENT)

TO THE

DEMOCRATIC SOCIALIST REPUBLIC OF SRI LANKA

FOR A

SRI LANKA - TRANSFORMING THE SCHOOL EDUCATION SYSTEM AS THE FOUNDATION OF A KNOWLEDGE HUB (P113488)

December 24, 2018

Education Global Practice

South Asia Region

This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance of their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization.

Pub

lic D

iscl

osur

e A

utho

rized

Pub

lic D

iscl

osur

e A

utho

rized

Pub

lic D

iscl

osur

e A

utho

rized

Pub

lic D

iscl

osur

e A

utho

rized

CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS

(Exchange Rate Effective November 19, 2018)

Currency Unit = Sri Lankan Rupee (LKR)

LKR 175.41 = US$1

US$ = SDR 1

FISCAL YEAR

January 1 – December 31

ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS

CAS Country Assistance Strategy CLIL Content and Language Integrated Learning CPF Country Partnership Framework CWSN Children with Special Learning Needs DFAT Australian Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade DLI Disbursement-linked Indicator DP Development Partner EMIS Education Management Information System ESDFP Education Sector Development Framework and Program FR Financial Regulation GCE A/L General Certificate of Education Advanced Level GCE O/L General Certificate of Education Ordinary Level GER Gross Enrollment Rate GoSL Government of Sri Lanka GRM Grievance Redressal Mechanism ICT Information and Communication Technology IRR Internal Rate of Return ISR Implementation Status and Results Report IUFR Interim Unaudited Financial Report M&E Monitoring and Evaluation MLGPC Ministry of Local Government and Provincial Councils MoE Ministry of Education NER Net Enrollment Rate NEREC National Education Research and Evaluation Center NIE National Institute of Education NPV Net Present Value OMSU Operations and Monitoring Support Unit PDO Project Development Objective PSI Program for School Improvement SBD Standard Bidding Document SBM School-based Management SBTD School-based Teacher Development SDC School Development Committee

SHPP School Health Promotion Program SLEAS Sri Lanka Education Administrative Service SMC School Management Committee TIMSS Trends in International Mathematics and Science Study TSEP Transforming the School Education System as the Foundation of a Knowledge Hub

Project UNESCO United Nations Educational, Scientific, and Cultural Organization

Regional Vice President: Hartwig Schafer

Country Director: Idah Z. Pswarayi-Riddihough

Senior Global Practice Director: Jaime Saavedra Chanduvi

Practice Manager: Cristian Aedo

Task Team Leader(s): Harsha Aturupane

ICR Main Contributor: Kumar Vivek

TABLE OF CONTENTS

DATA SHEET .......................................................................................................................... 1

A. CONTEXT AT APPRAISAL .........................................................................................................5

B. SIGNIFICANT CHANGES DURING IMPLEMENTATION (IF APPLICABLE) .......................................9

A. RELEVANCE OF PDOs ............................................................................................................ 10

B. ACHIEVEMENT OF PDOs (EFFICACY) ...................................................................................... 10

C. EFFICIENCY ........................................................................................................................... 18

D. JUSTIFICATION OF OVERALL OUTCOME RATING .................................................................... 19

E. OTHER OUTCOMES AND IMPACTS ......................................................................................... 19

A. KEY FACTORS DURING PREPARATION ................................................................................... 21

B. KEY FACTORS DURING IMPLEMENTATION ............................................................................. 21

A. QUALITY OF MONITORING AND EVALUATION (M&E) ............................................................ 22

B. ENVIRONMENTAL, SOCIAL, AND FIDUCIARY COMPLIANCE ..................................................... 24

C. BANK PERFORMANCE ........................................................................................................... 25

D. RISK TO DEVELOPMENT OUTCOME ....................................................................................... 26

ANNEX 1. RESULTS FRAMEWORK AND KEY OUTPUTS ........................................................... 28

ANNEX 2. BANK LENDING AND IMPLEMENTATION SUPPORT/SUPERVISION ......................... 37

ANNEX 3. PROJECT COST BY COMPONENT ........................................................................... 39

ANNEX 4. EFFICIENCY ANALYSIS ........................................................................................... 40

ANNEX 5. BORROWER, CO-FINANCIER AND OTHER PARTNER/STAKEHOLDER COMMENTS ... 42

ANNEX 6. SUPPORTING DOCUMENTS (IF ANY) ..................................................................... 46

The World Bank Sri Lanka - Transforming the School Education System as the Foundation of a Knowledge Hub (P113488)

Page 1 of 46

DATA SHEET

BASIC INFORMATION

Product Information

Project ID Project Name

P113488 Sri Lanka - Transforming the School Education System as

the Foundation of a Knowledge Hub

Country Financing Instrument

Sri Lanka Investment Project Financing

Original EA Category Revised EA Category

Partial Assessment (B) Partial Assessment (B)

Organizations

Borrower Implementing Agency

Democratic Socialist Republic of Sri Lanka Ministry of Local Government and Provincial Councils,

Ministry of Education

Project Development Objective (PDO) Original PDO

The project development objective is to enhance access to, and quality of, primary and secondary education to provide a foundation for the knowledge-based economic and social development of the country.


Page 2 of 46

FINANCING

Original Amount (US$) Revised Amount (US$) Actual Disbursed (US$)

World Bank Financing IDA-50370

100,000,000 99,127,628 92,377,153

TF-13267

39,110,485 39,110,485 39,110,485

Total 139,110,485 138,238,113 131,487,638

Non-World Bank Financing

Borrower/Recipient 0 0 0

Total 0 0 0

Total Project Cost 139,110,485 138,238,113 131,487,638

KEY DATES

Approval Effectiveness MTR Review Original Closing Actual Closing

29-Nov-2011 21-Jun-2012 03-Oct-2014 30-Jun-2017 30-Jun-2018

RESTRUCTURING AND/OR ADDITIONAL FINANCING

Date(s) Amount Disbursed (US$M) Key Revisions

06-Jun-2017 82.52 Change in Results Framework Change in Loan Closing Date(s) Change in Financing Plan Reallocation between Disbursement Categories Change in Implementation Schedule

KEY RATINGS

Outcome Bank Performance M&E Quality

Satisfactory Satisfactory Substantial


Page 3 of 46

RATINGS OF PROJECT PERFORMANCE IN ISRs

No. Date ISR Archived DO Rating IP Rating Actual

Disbursements (US$M)

01 24-Jun-2012 Satisfactory Satisfactory 0

02 20-Feb-2013 Satisfactory Satisfactory 10.06

03 11-Aug-2013 Satisfactory Satisfactory 18.92

04 28-Oct-2013 Satisfactory Satisfactory 28.57

05 28-Apr-2014 Satisfactory Satisfactory 48.17

06 03-Dec-2014 Satisfactory Satisfactory 57.24

07 02-Jun-2015 Satisfactory Satisfactory 71.70




11 26-Apr-2017 Satisfactory Satisfactory 113.77

12 24-Nov-2017 Satisfactory Satisfactory 125.86


SECTORS AND THEMES

Sectors

Major Sector/Sector (%)

Education 100

Public Administration - Education 10

Primary Education 40

Secondary Education 50

Themes

Major Theme/ Theme (Level 2)/ Theme (Level 3) (%)


Page 4 of 46

Human Development and Gender 102

Education 102

Access to Education 33

Education Financing 15

Science and Technology 18

Teachers 18

Standards, Curriculum and Textbooks 18

ADM STAFF

Role At Approval At ICR

Regional Vice President: Isabel M. Guerrero Hartwig Schafer

Country Director: Diarietou Gaye Idah Z. Pswarayi-Riddihough

Senior Global Practice Director: Michal J. Rutkowski Jaime Saavedra Chanduvi

Practice Manager: Amit Dar Mario Cristian Aedo Inostroza

Task Team Leader(s): Harsha Aturupane Harsha Aturupane

ICR Contributing Author: Kumar Vivek


Page 5 of 46

I. PROJECT CONTEXT AND DEVELOPMENT OBJECTIVES

A. CONTEXT AT APPRAISAL

Context

1. At the time of appraisal, Sri Lanka was a lower-middle-income country with a per capita income of approximately US$2,400 and population of around 20 million people. It had approximately 4 million school children, about 215,000 teachers, and around 10,000 schools.

2. The general education system in Sri Lanka at the time of appraisal faced many challenges that were identified in a rigorous World Bank analytical work.1 These included (a) insufficient focus on secondary education to cater to complex skill needs of the economy; (b) lack of ‘mastery’ in educational subjects for a large number of children at the primary level according to the National Curriculum Policy; (c) inadequate quality of general education system, especially secondary education, in producing market skills such as knowledge in English, information and communication technology (ICT), and science, technology, and mathematics subjects; (d) regional disparities in access and quality of education across provinces ; (e) inadequate school infrastructure; and (f) need to promote a more favorable environment for a multiethnic, multi-religious, and multicultural society in the aftermath of the secessionist conflict.

3. The Country Assistance Strategy (CAS) active at the time (FY09–FY12, Report No. 43471-LK) had also identified challenges such as deficiencies in access and quality of education and the need to strengthen public service delivery in education. Enhancing the quality and governance of education were identified as specific CAS outcomes.

4. The Government at the time focused on accelerating economic growth to enable Sri Lanka to become a high-middle-income country and organized its growth strategy around five key hubs. These hubs included a ‘knowledge hub’ to develop knowledge-based industries and services, which was also envisaged as the foundation for the success of all the other hubs. It also developed the national Education Sector Development Framework and Program (ESDFP) 2012–2016 that emphasized the importance of promoting a high-quality general education system.

5. Amidst this landscape, the Transforming the School Education System as the Foundation of a Knowledge Hub Project (TSEP) was designed, fully aligned with the ESDFP and aimed at addressing the challenges envisaged therein. It aimed at helping Sri Lanka develop a strong foundation for economic development and human development by enhancing access to, and quality of, primary and secondary education and strengthening governance and delivery of education services. It also sought to strengthen the capacity of the education management system at multiple levels, including national and subnational educational agencies and individual schools.

Theory of Change (Results Chain)

6. The results chain representing the links between themes, the Project Development Objective (PDO), and other indicators, components, and DLIs of the TSEP are depicted in figure 1.

1 Aturupane, Harsha. 2011. Transforming School Education in Sri Lanka: From Cut Stones to Polished Jewels (English). Washington, DC: World Bank.


Page 6 of 46

Figure 1. Theory of Change

Project Development Objective

7. The objective of the project as stated in the TSEP Financing Agreement (Schedule 1) was to enhance access to, and quality of, primary and secondary education to provide a foundation for the knowledge-based economic and social development of the country (Sri Lanka).

8. The direct beneficiaries of the project according to the Project Appraisal Document included about 4 million school children (1.6 million in primary schools and 2.4 million in secondary schools), around 215,000 school teachers, 15,000 principals, and 3,500 education managers and administrators.

Key Expected Outcomes and Outcome Indicators

9. The PDO statement as indicated in the TSEP Financing Agreement identifies two project-level outcomes (a) enhance access to primary and secondary education and (b) enhance quality of primary and


Page 7 of 46

secondary education. The PDO statement also includes a higher-level objective; that is, to provide a foundation for the knowledge-based economic and social development of the recipient (Sri Lanka). The World Bank guidance on the Implementation Completion and Results Report (ICR) for Investment Project Financing states that in case the longer-term or higher-level outcomes and impacts are part of the PDO statement, they should be part of the outcomes used to assess and rate efficacy. Hence, the assessment of this higher-level objective is also assessed under ‘efficacy’ in paragraphs 50–53. As described in the Project Appraisal Document, the project objectives were expected to be measured using the following PDO-level indicators:

• The survival rate of students up to Grade 11 (age 16 years) in the education system

• National assessments of learning outcomes conducted according to a regular cycle for key subjects and used for education sector program development

• Proportion of primary and secondary schools in which the Program for School Improvement (PSI) cycle of school development planning, implementation, self-assessment, reporting of results, and annual updating of the plan is completed

Components

10. The project supported all activities directly aligned with the three themes of the ESDFP 2012–2016 and an overarching foundation of the Rolling Education Sector Plan. The project consisted of the following parts, as described in the Financing Agreement:

Part 1: Promoting Access to Primary and Secondary Education

11. This part aimed at introducing several demand- and supply-side measures to improve opportunities for children ages 6–10 to complete primary education, for children ages 11–16 to complete secondary education up to Grade 11, and for youth ages 17–18 to complete Grades 12–13. The interventions included (a) flagship primary and secondary school learning environment improvement program in 5,000 primary schools and 1,000 secondary schools; (b) demand-side incentives to promote participation and retention in the primary and secondary stages of education, such as free textbooks, uniforms, transport subsidies, and free school meals; (c) special education and nonformal education programs for children with special learning needs (CWSN); (d) making all schools Health Promoting Schools to promote a comprehensive approach to school health and nutrition; and (e) career guidance and counseling programs in secondary schools.

Part 2: Improving the Quality of Education

12. This part aimed at introducing new and innovative policy initiatives to improve education quality. The interventions included

(a) Designing and conducting national assessments of learning outcomes according to a regular cycle for key subjects (first language [Sinhala and Tamil], English, and mathematics for primary grades and English, mathematics, and science for secondary grades) and using the assessments for education program development;

(b) Implementing school-based teacher development (SBTD) programs in all schools;


Page 8 of 46

(c) Implementing a bilingual education program (where a range of subjects in the secondary grades are taught in the English medium) using a Content and Language Integrated Learning (CLIL) Framework;

(d) Promoting labor market orientation in secondary and primary schools (using child-friendly approaches in the latter) that include soft skills and knowledge in English, ICT, and science, technology, engineering, and mathematics subjects;

(e) Upgrading the primary and secondary school curricula and supporting schools to implement them;

(f) Improving textbook quality (especially languages, history, mathematics, and science) and promoting diversity;

(g) Promoting social cohesion by developing ideas around the seven strategic areas of the national policy;

(h) Reforming the public examination system and supporting better analysis and utilization of the results of the public examinations to strengthen education quality; and

(i) Strengthening and developing a quality assurance program within the ESDFP to reflect the policy emphasis on improving education outcomes through school-based activities.

Part 3: Strengthening Governance and Delivery of Education Services

13. This part aimed at strengthening the management of the education system at multiple levels, including national, provincial, and sub-provincial educational agencies and schools. The interventions included (a) expanding the ESDFP 2006–2010 pilot PSI with strategic interventions, for secondary as well as primary schools, and implementing it across all schools; (b) building the leadership and management capacities of school principals and section heads to improve implementation capacity of the PSI, especially in economically and educationally disadvantaged areas; (c) strengthening the capacity of the education management system, particularly the provincial and sub-provincial systems at the zone and division levels; (d) strengthening the capacity of national-, provincial-, and sub-provincial-level education officials to manage and analyze information from the Education Management Information System (EMIS) as well as from other data sources; and (e) supporting institutionalization of financial management-related training for education sector staff at the central, provincial, and sub-provincial levels to strengthen public expenditure management and financial accountability.

14. In addition to the three parts, the Rolling Education Sector Plan was identified as the foundation. It aimed at assisting the rolling five-year education sector plan of the Government of Sri Lanka (GoSL) that described the key outcomes and results and the strategies to achieve these outcomes and results. The education sector plan was to be reviewed and updated every year based on past implementation experience and in the light of new information and policy needs and priorities.

15. The TSEP was financed using a Results-Based Financing modality and the disbursements were made against selected eligible expenditure programs. The actual credit disbursements, however, were based on five disbursement-linked indicators (DLIs) that were identified in alignment with the overall ESDFP 2012–2016 themes. The overall estimated costs (SDR 64.1 million, IDA US$100 million) are slightly


Page 9 of 46

different from the actual total project costs (SDR 63.47 million, IDA US$92.38 million). The undisbursed amount represents the exchange rate fluctuation.

B. SIGNIFICANT CHANGES DURING IMPLEMENTATION (IF APPLICABLE)

Revised PDOs and Outcome Targets

16. The PDO and PDO indicators remained constant during the lifetime of the project. A Level 2 restructuring took place during the implementation of the project in 2017, at the request of the Government.

17. During the restructuring, the Results Framework was revised to add the following: (a) additional targets for one intermediate outcome indicator (‘the education sector plan’, which was also made as a DLI for release of funds in the amount of approximately SDR 6 million during the extended period) and two new intermediate outcome indicators ‘the development of a framework for a School Inspectorate System’ and ‘the development of an enhanced model of School-Based Management’ were added.

Other Changes

18. Two key changes were part of the restructuring: extension of the closing date of the project from June 30, 2017, to June 30, 2018, and reallocation of SDR 6 million under IDA from Category 2 of the disbursement schedule to new Categories 12 and 13.

Rationale for Changes and Their Implication on the Original Theory of Change

19. The project was scheduled to close on June 30, 2017, with a projected remaining balance of approximately SDR 6 million under IDA financing. This remaining balance was the result of two factors: (a) a six-month delay in project effectiveness as described in paragraph 66 and (b) cost savings because of the provision of an additional grant from the Government of Australia of approximately AUD 11 million (approximately US$8.4 million) at the midterm stage as part of a linked trust fund. The GoSL requested that the TSEP be extended by one year and the funds be used to assist in the preparation and commencement of the new general education sector development program. The Government also requested the World Bank to support the future general education sector program with a new operation and proposed activities during the period of extension that could serve as a bridge between the TSEP and the proposed new operation.

20. The preparation of the new general education plan for 2018 was a crucial activity as it sought to bring the sector plan of the Ministry of Education (MoE) and the education sector plans of the nine provincial councils into a unified planning framework. It also proposed to include the steps needed to promote the next wave of reforms, including the modernization of the general education curriculum and the incorporation of international assessments such as Programme of International Student Assessment or Trends in International Mathematics and Science Study into a system for the assessments of learning outcomes. The World Bank approved this activity and added its completion as an intermediate outcome indicator and incentivized it through a new DLI. Additionally, the GoSL also proposed two more education reforms in its education policy framework: a School Inspectorate System to provide quality assurance of schools and a school-based management reform to empower school communities. The TSEP was in a position to lay the foundation for these long-term reforms and their inclusion in the general education plan for 2018 was monitored through two new intermediate outcome indicators that were added. These changes did not affect the original theory of change or the originally expected outcomes.


Page 10 of 46

II. OUTCOME

A. RELEVANCE OF PDOs

Assessment of Relevance of PDOs and Rating Rating: Substantial

21. The TSEP at the design stage was aligned to the GoSL’s ESDFP 2012–2016 and was thus directly relevant to the country’s key development priorities. The exercise of preparing a five-year Rolling Education Sector Plan that was conducted each year and incentivized through a DLI, helped in ensuring that the efforts of the GoSL and the World Bank remained aligned. The rolling plan of the ESDFP also provided flexibility for provinces and to individual education institutions to update and improve development plans and actions periodically to respond to new circumstances. The GoSL’s current education development strategy, the ESDFP 2018–2025, aims to improve the quality and governance of the general education sector in Sri Lanka, with a view to equip students with the knowledge, skills, behaviors, and attitudes required for success in the 21st century economy. With this new strategy, the development objectives of the TSEP continue to remain highly relevant.

22. Additionally, the World Bank Group’s current Country Partnership Framework (CPF) for FY17–FY20 (Report No. 104606-LK) for Sri Lanka also identifies strengthening education and training systems as a key pillar and emphasizes the promotion of equitable access and quality at the primary and secondary education levels. The TSEP, therefore, is also well aligned with the current CPF. Based on the assessments, the rating for the relevance of PDO is Substantial.

B. ACHIEVEMENT OF PDOs (EFFICACY)

Assessment of Achievement of Each Objective/Outcome Rating: High

23. The technical implementation of the project components and subcomponents has been strong and all the outcome and intermediate outcome indicators have been achieved and, in some cases, exceeded. The project improved the survival rate of students up to Grade 11 in the education system with an increase from a baseline of 82 percent to 88 percent, ensured that regular cycles of national assessments of learning outcomes were conducted for key subjects and used by national and provincial education authorities in the design of their education development plans, and ensured that the entire cycle of balanced control model of school-based management called the PSI was completed in all primary and secondary schools.

24. As described in paragraph 9, the PDO consists of a single, higher-level objective expected to be met using two key outcomes (a) enhanced access and (b) enhanced quality of primary and secondary education. The achievement of both these outcomes is summarized in the following paragraphs. While the achievement on all indicators in the Results Framework has been summarized, wherever possible, effort has been made to identify other sources of information, including a few impact evaluations and related research, to triangulate the achievements. An overall qualitative assessment has been provided in paragraphs 50–53 to understand how the project outcomes contributed to the higher-level objective of setting the foundation for knowledge-based economic and social development.

Outcome 1: Enhanced access to primary and secondary education (Sub-rating: High)


Page 11 of 46

25. The project helped the Government’s ESDFP to significantly expand the access to primary and secondary education. The survival rate of students up to Grade 11 improved from 82 percent in 2011 to 87 percent in 2016. By 2017, it had further improved to 88 percent, thereby exceeding this PDO indicator’s target. The improvement in survival rates varied across provinces, but all provinces experienced an improvement.

Figure 2. Survival Rate Up to Grade 11

26. The first intermediate outcome indicator measured the progress against the MoE targets for the flagship secondary and primary school learning environment improvement program. The MoE targets were defined as follows: (a) target for secondary schools were construction of technological laboratories, provision of equipment for technological laboratories, and availability of qualified General Certificate of Education Ordinary Level (GCE O/L) science and mathematics teachers and (b) target for primary schools were physical development, provision of materials for quality development, and capacity building of principals. According to the MoE data, all these targets were fully achieved and, by the end of the TSEP, 88 percent of 4,027 science teachers and 87 percent of 3,765 mathematics teachers across 1,005 secondary schools were professionally qualified. To further triangulate this information, data from Edu Stat, managed by the Data Management Branch of the MoE were reviewed.2 The information available on Edu Stat pertains to teachers in all government schools (and not just to flagship secondary schools). According to this data, in 2017, 98 percent of 240,000 government school teachers across the entire island were professionally qualified.

27. The second intermediate outcome indicator measured the action of school management committees (SMCs) that were set up as part of the PSI. The PSI itself was an intervention for quality improvement and governance strengthening and those aspects are analyzed in this ICR under Outcome 2 in the following sections. For the purposes of this indicator, the MoE reported that the SMCs conducted awareness programs for school communities to promote participation and retention in primary and secondary education in all zones, and the targets set in the indicator were fully achieved.

28. According to the available data,3 by the end of 2016, the SMCs were established and trained to promote student participation in 10,184 schools in 98 zones. Field missions undertaken by the World Bank task team documented4 that the SMCs were implementing several actions to increase participation of students. The committees were instrumental in ensuring that the schools kept records of daily attendance

2 Edu Stat, Data Management Branch, MoE (https://dmb.moe.gov.lk/educational-data-and-information/). 3 Technical Note prepared by the World Bank task team, dated October 25, 2017. 4 Technical Note prepared by the World Bank task team, dated October 25, 2017.

https://dmb.moe.gov.lk/educational-data-and-information/


Page 12 of 46

of their students. The SMCs and school attendance committees closely monitored the attendance of students and followed up with families from which children dropped out to bring them back to school. The midmorning meal program helped in attracting and retaining children among disadvantaged communities, especially those in the primary stage of education. The SMCs also supported the preparation of midmorning meals to promote participation in poor communities. While the efficiency and efficacy of these actions vary from school to school, the committees were especially proactive in poorer and disadvantaged areas. The impact of their programs on participation and retention was triangulated during ICR preparation by observing data on out-of-school children from external sources. While this may be an indirect indicator, it does show a sharp reduction in the out-of-school children of primary school age in Sri Lanka.5

Figure 3. Out-of-school Children in Sri Lanka

29. The two intermediate outcome indicator targets, the strengthening of special education for CWSN and nonformal education programs and career guidance and counseling programs, were fully achieved. To cater effectively to CWSN, continuous professional development programs were imparted to staff working with them and the available resources and facilities were upgraded. Over the entire period of the TSEP, around 400 teachers and 900 principals received training in inclusive education and 164 training programs were delivered.6 According to the available data,7 a total of 8,526 CWSN were enrolled in special education programs that were implemented in all nine provinces during the project period. The courses were provided by the NIE and included Diploma in Special Education, Diploma in Sign Language, and Certificate in Braille. NIE also developed a wide range of curriculum materials, including materials for autistic children. To support youth who were unable to proceed beyond the GCE O/L stage, access to nonformal education programs (that deliver labor market skills) was provided through 177 community learning centers. About 360 education instructors were trained in developing literacy skills and 363 programs were delivered to 12,051 youth. The TSEP succeeded in targeting and initiating systematic support to some of the most vulnerable groups of children: those with special learning needs.

30. To implement career guidance and counseling, a career guidance program was developed. This program included the implementation of a systematic program of career education in schools in Grades 7–9 and the inclusion of career education (world of work) modules as an integral part of the civic education syllabi in Grades 7–9. More than 2,300 teachers and 142 students received training in career

5 United Nations Educational, Scientific, and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) Institute for Statistics. 6 Technical Note prepared by the World Bank task team, dated October 25, 2017. 7 Primary data from the MoE; School Census.


Page 13 of 46

guidance over the period of the TSEP. As part of this effort, a career guidance program, which introduced upgraded career education and world of work modules in junior secondary grades, was also developed.

31. The intermediate outcome indicator on school health and nutrition programs measured the monitoring and action taken by schools on their health promoting status. This was part of the GoSL’s larger School Health Promotion Program (SHPP) that was aimed at introducing good practices in school health. The targets under this indicator were fully achieved.

32. The achievements under Outcome 1 are high likely because of the project interventions and outputs. First, the project assisted the MoE with a strategic school mapping exercise in all provinces, so that the flagship program of improving school learning environment in 5,000 primary schools and 1,000 secondary schools worked in a mesh network. The investments in primary schools included facilities for a child-friendly learning approach designed by the MoE with the assistance of the United Nations Children's Fund and the Australian Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade (DFAT). The network design provided a feeder stock to nearby secondary schools where higher-order assets and spaces such as libraries, science laboratories, information technology centers, language laboratories, activity rooms, and multipurpose rooms were provisioned. This strategy may partly be attributed to the increase in enrollment and transition rates. From 2009 to 2016, the gross enrollment rate (GER) at primary school levels rose from 95.08 percent to 101.9 percent, while the net enrollment rate (NER) at primary school levels, during the same period, rose from 93.25 percent to 98.92 percent, achieving universal access to primary education.8 The secondary NER also improved significantly from 84.09 percent in 2010 to 88.83 percent in 2017.9 The effective transition rate from primary to lower secondary general education increased from 98.5 percent in 2011 to 99.7 percent in 2015.

33. Second, enhancement of school-based management and activation of the SMCs (as part of the PSI) worked as a strong demand-side measure for improving retention. An impact evaluation of the PSI pilot published in 201110 had concluded that the PSI had a positive and significant impact on increasing local community participation in school administration, the implementation of school development projects through resources raised from local communities, and the cognitive achievement levels of primary school students. During the implementation period, the PSI cycle was completed in all schools and training for school development committees (SDCs) and SMCs in all 98 zones were organized. These committees conducted awareness programs for school communities to promote participation and retention in primary and secondary education in all zones.

34. The MoE also conducted an impact evaluation of the PSI on a sample of 991 schools.11 While this was not a randomized control evaluation that could conclusively attribute outcomes to the intervention, it provided sufficient data to understand the awareness of the PSI and its objectives at the school level. A key data point in this study was the engagement between the school and community which showed that at least 89.7 percent of schools collected information on local community, and in almost 93.9 percent of the schools, some assistance was provided to the school by the local community (material/non-material resources). Although it is not always possible to isolate the effects of community/parent engagement, findings indicate that such engagements, sometimes in conjunction with other factors, are indeed

8 UNESCO Institute for Statistics. 9 UNESCO Institute for Statistics. 10 Aturupane, Harsha. 2011. An Impact Evaluation of Sri Lanka's Policies to Promote the Academic Performance of Primary School Students Through School Improvement and Report Card Programs (English). South Asia Human Development Sector Report no. 35. Washington, DC: World Bank. 11 Primary information obtained from the School Activities Branch, MoE.


Page 14 of 46

associated with a significant effect on a variety of achievement variables.12 Thus, it may be hypothesized that the community engagement introduced as part of the PSI also contributed to enhancement in survival rates, though more rigorous evaluations are needed to be conclusive.

35. Third, the SHPP, based on which the school health and nutrition program was implemented, specifically had two key education-related indicators as part of its evaluation framework: (a) percentage increase in school attendance and (b) percentage increase in GCE O/L and General Certificate of Education Advanced Level (GCE A/L) results. The impact evaluations of different components as part of the SHPP showed significant positive results, which can be directly attributed to the TSEP investments. Some of these are discussed in a World Bank discussion paper.13

Outcome 2: Enhanced quality of primary and secondary education (Sub-rating: High)

36. The project aimed at supporting the GoSL to use the national assessment of learning outcomes for program development by analyzing the pattern of learning outcomes in the primary and secondary education system and providing a rigorous and scientific basis for policy formulation and program design. This PDO indicator is achieved through the establishment of a national assessment system to measure learning outcomes and improvements in the test scores between comparable cycles. The following national assessments were conducted by the National Education Research and Evaluation Center (NEREC) over the course of the project: (a) Grade 8 assessments in 2012–2013, 2014–2015, and 2016–2017 and (b) Grade 4 assessments in 2013–2014 and 2015–2016. In addition, NEREC also designed a localized ‘Sri Lankan version’ of Trends in International Mathematics and Science Study (TIMSS)14 for Grade 8 mathematics in the country. It was administered as part of national assessment of learning outcomes of Grade 8 in 2012, 2014, and 2016. While this was not part of the Results Framework, it was a proactive initiative of the GoSL that helped in systemic capacity building for international assessments.

37. The national assessments in Grade 4 consisted of first language, English, and mathematics, while those in Grade 8 consisted of mathematics, science, and English. The NEREC assessment reports contained a wealth of information useful for policy making, including rankings of provinces for each cognitive test, the urban and rural breakdown, and gender-wise comparisons, of cognitive scores. The midterm review report of the TSEP identified policy areas where the findings of national assessments could be used. According to the information provided by the Ministry of Local Government and Provincial Councils (MLGPC), the findings of the assessments for the respective grades were indeed used each year by national and provincial education authorities in the design of their education development plans. These developments indicate a satisfactory achievement of the performance target.

38. The results of these assessment studies also show improvements in students’ learning achievement.15 For Grade 4 students, there is an overall improvement in mathematics and English language. Performance in the first language has improved for Tamil medium students, while no significant

12 Aturupane, Harsha, Thomas Kellaghan, and Mari Shojo. 2013. School-based Education Improvement Initiatives: The Experience and Options for Sri Lanka (English). South Asia Human Development Sector Report no. 58. Washington DC; World Bank. 13 Drake, L. J., R. Peiris, R. Dixon, A. Palfreyman Roshini Mary Ebenezer, A. Lokubalasuriya, Jae Hyung Kwon, R. S. Medagama, Donald A. P. Bundy, Harsha Aturupane, and N. De Silva. 2014. School Health and Nutrition in Sri Lanka (English). South Asia Human Development Sector Series; No. 71. Washington, DC: World Bank. 14 TIMSS is an international assessment of mathematics and science knowledge of students around the world. 15 NEREC, Faculty of Education, University of Colombo.


Page 15 of 46

change was seen for Sinhala medium students. For Grade 8 students, there is a slight improvement in mathematics and science but a decline in English language.16

Figure 4. Proportion of Students Achieving Higher than 50 Percent in Grade 4

Figure 5. Proportion of Students Achieving Higher than 50 Percent in Grade 8

39. It can be reasonably assumed that the increase in test scores in key subjects were because of a series of project interventions and improvement of results indicators during the project life. First, the SBTD programs, as measured through the DLI, were implemented in all schools as part of the PSI. A 2006 feasibility study by the University of Peradeniya consisting of 60 schools from three provinces had concluded positive quality impacts of this program, based on which it was expanded under the TSEP. It succeeded in creating small professional learning communities of teachers and a pool of shared resources and feedback mechanisms. Such professional learning communities have shown positive impacts in international literature and the results under this outcome are indeed attributable to the TSEP investments. The number of teachers engaged in SBTD in 2017, is estimated at around 156,000 (or about 65 percent of the entire teaching workforce) according to a perception survey.17

40. Second, the revision and improvement in primary education curriculum, as measured by the intermediate outcome indicator, provided new and improved learning materials and teacher instructional manuals for Grades 1–3. This was accompanied with capacity development for the managerial level on curriculum revision, training of in-service advisers, and training of primary teachers in feeder primary schools. Thus, the quality of textbooks and teachers improved. Formative assessments were also strengthened in parallel by the primary department of the National Institute of Education (NIE), through the revision of the essential learning competencies. These improvements were also mirrored at the secondary education level, where new mathematics and science curricula were introduced (Grades 6–11) along with revised textbooks and teacher guides. The process of textbook review, as measured through an intermediate outcome indicator, was significantly enhanced. The TSEP created a systematic panel

16 Dundar, H., B. Millot, M. Riboud, M. Shojo, H. Aturupane, S. Goyal, and D. Raju. 2017. Sri Lanka Education Sector Assessment: Achievements, Challenges, and Policy Options. Directions in Human Development. Washington DC: World Bank. 17 The third-party validation report of DLI 2 (that measured the SBTD program’s progress) submitted in 2016 concluded that 65 percent of principals and teachers were either highly satisfied or satisfied with the SBTD program.


Page 16 of 46

review process that was implemented for all subjects, including languages, history, mathematics, and science, so that all textbooks went through the review panel process before publication. Finally, the Department of Examination conducted an item response analysis annually and published reports for mathematics, science, English, and first language for the GCE O/L and for chemistry, physics, mathematics, biology, and select arts subjects for the GCE A/L, further strengthening the information available to teachers to improve their classroom instruction.

41. The following paragraphs discuss the remaining DLIs and intermediate outcome indicators under this outcome.

42. The introduction of bilingual education in Sri Lanka was connected to economic and education goals to improve proficiency in an international language (English) and thereby reach out to the global community.18 Sri Lanka implemented this using the CLIL approach, where the teacher uses the second language (English) as much as possible but uses the mother tongue (Sinhala or Tamil) where necessary. By the end of the TSEP, the CLIL framework was introduced in 750 secondary (Grades 6–11) and senior secondary GCE A/L (Grades 12–13) schools having bilingual education. There were 78,000 students and 7,000 teachers engaged in this method and independent third-party evaluations verified that the DLI targets on CLIL implementation and teacher training were met each year. The quality improvement of the CLIL was supported by the School of Education, University of Aberdeen (United Kingdom) with technical assistance from DFAT.

43. Efforts made toward social cohesion as part of the Education Sector Development Project (December 2005 to June 2011) were expanded in the TSEP. All schools (approximately 10,100) implemented social cohesion programs through multiethnic student and teacher interactions. A Quality Assurance Program was also developed and aligned with the PSI at the beginning of the TSEP implementation period. It was evaluated in 2014 and an upgraded program was implemented in all schools across the nine provinces in January 2015. Quality assurance guidelines were published in a book titled ‘Our School: How Good Is It?’ in both Sinhala and Tamil and issued in January 2015 to all schools.

44. Achievements toward strengthening governance and delivery of education services derive largely from the success of the PSI model, which has also been partly analyzed in the analysis of the previous outcome. The objective of the PSI was to empower schools to make and implement relevant management decisions to strengthen school performance. It was implemented by the SDCs and the project teams of the SMCs, under the leadership of the school principal.

45. The MoE distributed several documents across schools to guide the PSI implementation. These included a handbook for Planning and Procurement for School-Based Qualitative, Quantitative, and Structural Development; a PSI Guidebook in Sinhala and Tamil; and a circular on the financial management and collection of funds from parents at the school level. The MoE conducted progress review meetings for provincial coordinators, capacity-building workshops for resource persons at the zonal level, capacity building and sharing good practices for schools, and a PSI planning workshop. The end-of-project target was that all schools complete the PSI cycle, and this has been achieved.

46. Several training programs were conducted under the TSEP for teachers, members of the SDCs and SMCs, principals, and management officials in the education system. According to data from the MoE, 177,743 teachers (about 74 percent of the total teaching workforce) were trained between 2012 and

18 Handbook on Content and Language Integrated Learning (CLIL); Bilingual Education and Trilingual Programmes Branch, MoE; 2016 (collected physically from MoE).


Page 17 of 46

2017. Almost an equal number of SDC/SMC members were trained,19 while about 10,950 principals benefited from these trainings. The PSI guidebook was used in these training events. Capacity development programs were also undertaken for management officials at the zonal and divisional levels (Sri Lanka Education Administrative Service [SLEAS] officials, DDEs, development officers, planning coordinators, and so on). A key indicator that provides a direct measure of governance improvement is the filling of vacancies of administrative officials. During the project period, action was taken to fill the vacancies of SLEAS officers and the MoE recruited around 1,000 officers (174 in 2012, 157 in 2013, 465 in 2014, and 195 in 2016). Education officials were also given training under this component in areas such as planning, administration, monitoring, school-based management, SBTD, quality assurance, procurement, financial management, and environmental management during the project period. According to the MoE data, over 5,000 training opportunities were provided during the project period which included 329 long-term and 435 short-term foreign trainings.

47. An EMIS was developed during the TSEP implementation period that provides a simple platform called Edu Stat to summarize the data of the annual school census. The larger technology initiatives also include a human resource management system for teachers and SLEAS officers, which is ready to be deployed. In addition, the development of school and student profiles is in progress. This should enhance the functionality of the system further and strengthen governance.

48. Another intermediate outcome indicator around the time line for completion of education sector-level audits by the Auditor General’s Department for both the center and provinces clearly shows the reduction in the time taken to complete these audits from nine months to five months. The delays in the procurement activities were also reduced to less than 10 percent of such activities, implying systemic improvements in administrative processes.

49. The third-party validation report of DLI 5 (that measured strengthening of education development and management at the zonal and divisional levels) submitted in 201620 concluded that the DLI targets were fully met. It presents several output parameters (such as availability of staff in zonal education offices, availability of infrastructure facilities, training numbers, and so on) that have shown satisfactory progress.

Higher-level Outcome: Setting the foundation for the knowledge-based economic and social development

50. GoSL’s ESDFP 2012–2016 document was titled “Human Capital Foundation for a Knowledge Economy: Transforming the School Education System”. The flagship outcome of the ESDFP was development of 1,000 secondary schools with 5,000 feeder primary schools that could, in turn, serve as the human capital foundation of a knowledge economy. Part 1 of the TSEP design (paragraph 11) supported this key objective and was highly successful (as discussed in paragraphs 25-35).

51. Human capital development is a key parameter for structural transformation of economies as it affects economic growth in a variety of ways. Besides its direct impact on productivity and its indirect effects on health and fertility behavior, it facilitates the transmission of knowledge and can accelerate the rate at which countries can take advantage of new ideas and new technology. It can also encourage research and expand innovative capacity. More broadly, it can provide countries the flexibility and

19 The July 2015, third-party validation report of DLI 4 (that measured SDC/SMC trainings), however, noted that only 55 percent of the SDC and SMC members had participated in training programs during the past 18-month period. 20 Report prepared by the Sri Lanka Association for the Advancement of Education, October 2016.


Page 18 of 46

adaptability needed at each stage of the growth process in a competitive, knowledge-based, globalized world. While some human capital is acquired within the household and in social contexts, a very substantial part is acquired through formal education and training.21 TSEP targeted improvements in formal education to boost Sri Lanka’s human capital, and its successes can directly contribute to setting a strong foundation for economic growth. With this investment, Sri Lanka continued to make impressive progress in getting children into primary and secondary school and having them complete up to 10 years of schooling. Because of the Government’s sustained commitment to education, both the GER and the NER went up steadily over time (paragraph 32). The TSEP also significantly contributed to the improvement in quality of education, especially in science and mathematics learning outcomes (paragraph 38).

52. The TSEP also supported improvements in the assessment systems and in ensuring that Sri Lanka has well-established systems encompassing various types of assessments—classroom assessment, public examinations, and large-scale national surveys. The results of the national assessment studies have also shown improvements in students’ learning achievements. The next step might be to improve the enabling environment, that is, the alignment between different systems and technical aspects, especially for classroom and large-scale assessments.

53. The TSEP undertook significant work in improving governance and service delivery—the key pillars required to materialize results in human capital investments. Sri Lanka has a strong basic institutional foundation to deliver public education services, with responsibilities being shared between the central government and provincial councils. Going forward, it is necessary to improve the incentive system for better performance of public employees. At the school level, the Government is relying on two tools to improve accountability: an inspectorate system based on the United Kingdom’s and Scottish models, and a school-based management program to empower schools and local communities. An initial evaluation also suggested that the latter program has had a positive impact on learning outcomes and could be strengthened and implemented more extensively in the future. The TSEP was in a position to lay the foundation for these long-term reforms, and their inclusion in the general education plan for 2018 was monitored through two new intermediate outcome indicators that were added during restructuring.

C. EFFICIENCY

Assessment of Efficiency and Rating Rating: Substantial

54. A cost-benefit analysis conducted at the time of the ICR shows a high economic rate of return for the project. Considering the stream of costs and benefits generated, the project’s overall net present value (NPV) of net cash flows from the project is estimated to be US$386 million in the base (middle) case scenario. Similarly, the economic internal rate of return (IRR) is 28.3 percent. At appraisal, the NPV and economic IRR for the project were US$429 million and 33 percent, respectively in the base case scenario. The estimates at completion turned out to be lower than the estimates at appraisal because of conservative assumptions. However, it still can be said that the project has yielded positive economic returns and thus was a sound investment (see more details in annex 4).

21 Dundar, H., B. Millot, M. Riboud, M. Shojo, H. Aturupane, S. Goyal, and D. Raju. 2017. Sri Lanka Education Sector Assessment: Achievements, Challenges, and Policy Options. Directions in Human Development. Washington DC: World Bank.


Page 19 of 46

55. The project achieved its objectives efficiently within the project time frame with full disbursement. The implementation and design of the project were well thought out, and several noteworthy efficiency gains took place under the project:

(a) The project used resources in an efficient manner with a focus on results and achieved the project-intended outcomes successfully. For some indicators, the results exceeded the targets identified for the project.

(b) The survival rate of students up to Grade 11 increased from a baseline of 82 percent to 88 percent. This is an evidence of increased efficiency of the internal system and reduced wastage of public and private resources.

(c) Enhanced learning outcomes are important to improve Sri Lanka’s performance and competitiveness in the global knowledge economy. The project has contributed to improved students’ learning outcomes in key subjects.

(d) The project initiatives allowed empowerment of schools with managerial functions and enabled stakeholders such as parents, past pupils, and local well-wishers to participate and assist in the development of schools. This has resulted in improved efficiency in delivery of education services.

(e) Data and information were collected from various sources and were shared and used at both the central and provincial levels. Such information was used to strengthen the implementation of interventions (for example, PSI and SBTD) and for the development of strategy and decision making. This has enhanced efficiency in program design and implementation.

D. JUSTIFICATION OF OVERALL OUTCOME RATING

56. The overall outcome rating of the project is Satisfactory based on substantial relevance, high efficacy, and substantial efficiency, as discussed earlier and provided in table 1.

Table 1. Overall Outcome Rating

Relevance Efficacy Efficiency Overall

Rating Substantial High Substantial Satisfactory

E. OTHER OUTCOMES AND IMPACTS

Gender

57. While most of South Asia still faces the gender gap challenge in favor of boys, Sri Lanka’s educational gender gap favors girls. Like their counterparts in most high-income countries, Sri Lankan girls are consistently outpacing boys in both educational access and achievement. At the appraisal stage, Sri Lanka was already successful in achieving gender parity in primary education, while in secondary education there were slightly more female students than male students. By the time of the midterm review (September 2014), girls showed a 7 percent higher survival rate compared to boys in completing the compulsory education cycle. The distribution remained somewhat similar by the end of the project period. An analysis of 2016 school census data on survival rates in the Grades 1–11 cycle reveal a negligible


Page 20 of 46

difference between boys and girls in the survival rate up to Grade 5 and significant disadvantage for boys at the secondary education stage making the gender gap apparent. A World Bank analytical work during the TSEP period highlighted the disparities in educational achievement at the primary level with boys underperforming in the two national measures of educational achievement: Grade 5 scholarship exam and the TSEP-supported NEREC Grade 4 national assessment of learning outcomes.22 There was also a gender gap in educational achievement at the secondary level with boys underperforming at the GCE O/L and A/L.

58. The World Bank report offered qualitative research into the possible reasons for the gender gap and identified specific GoSL initiatives to address both gender gaps in the education system and gender gaps in the labor market. These initiatives include strategies to ensure that the curriculum and wider school community does not perpetuate common gender misperceptions and stereotypes that may discourage boys from engaging fully with school and may discourage girls from fully participating in the labor market. Other initiatives include developing links between education and the labor market through enhanced career guidance programing at the school level.

Institutional Strengthening

59. The project design included institutional strengthening as one of the outcomes underpinning the systemic reform. At the baseline of the project, in the year 2012, the capacity of the education zones and divisions needed further strengthening. Often, zones and divisions did not have sufficient office space, equipment, and staff. Many divisional offices were located in a small room of a school and staffed with several newly recruited graduates (development officers) and some in-service advisers or master teachers. There was limited office equipment in the zonal and divisional offices. Vacancies were a key challenge, and only about 50 percent of the allocated cadre of officers had been filled. The roles of the zones and divisions in education management were overlapping and were not very clear, especially to the junior officers.

60. In 2012, the MoE prepared a ‘Report Clarifying the Roles and Functions of the Zonal Education Office and the Divisional Education Office’. The report made several recommendations for defining the respective roles and responsibilities of the zonal and divisional offices, including proposed revised functions for each. It also made recommendations for strengthening the offices through physical improvements and through human resource development. Subsequently, the MoE published a policy statement and an implementation manual mandating and defining respective functions for the zonal and divisional offices and it was published as the preamble to an MoE circular issued on this subject. As mentioned in paragraph 46, the issue of officer vacancies was also addressed to a large extent.

Mobilizing Private Sector Financing

61. Not applicable for the TSEP.

Poverty Reduction and Shared Prosperity

62. The project did not include any specific impact measurement of poverty reduction or shared prosperity. However, the project has contributed to a greater acquisition of human capital by supporting the primary and secondary education system as described in paragraphs 50–53.

22 Sri Lanka’s Underperforming Boys: The Gender Dimensions of Educational Access and Achievement in Sri Lanka; World Bank.


Page 21 of 46

Other Unintended Outcomes and Impacts

63. One of the key impacts of the TSEP worth highlighting is the focus on results that percolated within the decentralized schooling ecosystem of Sri Lanka leading to innovations at the provincial levels. Several provinces devised their own innovative mechanisms for improving learning outcomes and examination results by reviewing and analyzing test data at the classroom level. The strong ownership for the project at the provincial level and their efforts to drive results is a case of institutional strengthening which is expected to last beyond the duration of the TSEP.

III. KEY FACTORS THAT AFFECTED IMPLEMENTATION AND OUTCOME

A. KEY FACTORS DURING PREPARATION

64. The preparation phase benefited from several factors. First, the lending phase benefited immensely from the findings of (a) the World Bank’s analytical work (Transforming School Education in Sri Lanka: From Cut Stones to Polished Jewels, World Bank 2011) and (b) an assessment carried out on the Education Sector Development Project 2005–2011, a precursor of the project, whose main lessons learned were incorporated into the TSEP design. Based on the above and other World Bank-financed higher education and programmatic lending operations in other countries (a) the key primary and secondary education sector issues to be addressed by the TSEP were clearly identified (as further detailed earlier) and (b) the suitable institutional and implementation arrangements as well as the lending instrument (a Specific Investment Lending rather than a sector-wide approach) and disbursement mechanisms proposed (results based). Second, the TSEP was well aligned to the GoSL’s vision formulation and strategic thinking at the national level, which was translated into a long-term education reform strategy using the ESDFP and the annual rolling plan. Third, the extensive documentation by the Government during the preparation phase (which continued later in the form of circulars, publication of detailed guidelines and operational manuals, and so on) attests to strong GoSL ownership. The senior staff of the MoE and Provincial Councils were strong advocates of both establishing/strengthening the PSI, SBTD, bilingual education, and EMIS and developing the structures, processes, and capacities to enable their sustainability and use. The Directors of various departments (Policy Planning and Review Division, Education Quality Development, School Affairs) and the Provinces were fully aligned with this vision and supported the TSEP. The main challenge faced during preparation was to balance the policy and oversight roles and responsibilities of the Ministry of Education with the implementation responsibilities of the Provincial Councils. The approach taken by GoSL and the WB was to align these roles and responsibilities along the lines used for the implementation of the government budget. This helped ensure consistency between the flow of government funds and the Project funds.

B. KEY FACTORS DURING IMPLEMENTATION

65. Many factors contributed to successful project implementation. First, the Government’s strong and continued commitment was central to successful implementation of the TSEP. The project, with high political commitment, served to mobilize stakeholders at all levels (authorities at the national, provincial, and zonal levels and communities). Second, robust guidelines (such as the guidelines for school-level planning, guidelines and ‘tool-kit’ for SBTD, guidelines and instructions for secondary schools development program, technological laboratory guidelines, and CLIL framework,) were introduced and widely disseminated, ensuring that all stakeholders were aligned to the overall vision and objectives. Third, several training programs conducted by the provinces through their planning units, the Operations and Monitoring Support Unit (OMSU) at the zonal and provincial levels, and the Human Resource


Page 22 of 46

Development Branch of the MoE further strengthened the alignment. The training covered core functions of the staff in education management, particularly in the PSI, SBTD, and other required line activities such as procurement, financial management, and environment management. Training-of-trainers programs were conducted by different divisions of the MoE covering their own subject areas so that such training would trickle down to the field level. In the midterm review, the World Bank team reported that such trainings had greatly contributed to increased awareness and helped in achieving project targets. Fourth, the ESDFP facilitated the provinces to prepare high-quality annual work plans. Further, the whole process of planning, appraisal, implementation, and monitoring was well organized. The continuity and local presence of the World Bank team and proactive follow-up on issues had a significant positive impact on implementation. In particular, Bank staff and consultants, and DFAT staff from time to time, visited the provinces on a cycle which covered each province every two months (six times a year). This close supervision and support for the provinces sustain the momentum of project implementation and was vitally important for successful implementation.

66. There were a few challenges during the implementation period. The beginning of the project witnessed a delayed start because of the lack of awareness of some legal officials of the General Conditions of the World Bank. The project, thereafter, was signed only in May 2012. The delay in project signing and effectiveness hampered implementation in the MoE and provinces. The initial funds under the TSEP reached the provinces in the fourth quarter of 2012. Another challenge during implementation was the variation in progress of key initiatives across schools. The midterm review, conducted in September 2014, noted that the PSI implementation varied considerably across schools. There were schools executing the PSI extremely well, engaging in planned development to improve learning outcomes and the learning environment, while there were others engaging mainly in infrastructure development. Similarly, there were some schools struggling to identify the professional development needs of teachers for SBTD activities. Key actions were agreed with the School Activities Branch, and the Teacher Development Branch, and the Provinces, respectively to mitigate some of these challenges.

IV. BANK PERFORMANCE, COMPLIANCE ISSUES, AND RISK TO DEVELOPMENT OUTCOME

A. QUALITY OF MONITORING AND EVALUATION (M&E) Rating: Substantial

M&E Design

67. The links between the inputs, outputs, and outcomes and the PDO were reasonably adequate. The PDO was clearly specified. Three PDO-level indicators, five DLIs, and fourteen intermediate outcome indicators together with their annual targets were identified for the project at appraisal to measure (a) enhanced access, (b) enhanced quality, and (c) strengthened governance and delivery of primary and secondary education. The sources of data for the indicators were to be the MoE, MLGPC, Finance Commission, NEREC, and provincial education authorities.

68. The M&E design was appropriate, and the project performance was satisfactory through the implementation period. All DLIs were achieved without any delay. This was the first lending operation in Sri Lanka that introduced a results-based financing approach using DLIs and shifted the focus of the Government on results and performance. The project also catalyzed the GoSL to design and monitor several output and outcome indicators as part of the ESDFP. There was a clear link between many of these indicators and the objectives of the project. Some of these indicators included enrollment and transition rates, student and teacher attendance rates, student-teacher ratios, distributions of cognitive


Page 23 of 46

achievement scores in the national assessments of learning outcomes, proportion of students passing the GCE O/L and A/L exams, CWSN identification and enrollment, measurement and reporting of essential learning competencies at the end of Grade 5, and so on. The ICR team considers this as a significant achievement in boosting client capacity.

69. An OMSU was established at the MLGPC. The roles and responsibilities document of the OMSU includes the monitoring of the ESDFP activities along with the MoE, provincial councils, and the NIE according to the Results Framework as a key task. An M&E specialist, with the responsibility of consolidating quarterly monitoring reports of the key performance indicators, was envisaged as a resource under the OMSU. This position was filled from time to time but was vacant at other times.

M&E Implementation

70. The M&E framework was generally well implemented and contributed significantly to the smooth implementation of the activities of the ESDFP supported by the TSEP and the achievement of targets. The TSEP M&E was based on a comprehensive monitoring framework consisting of annual targets for 22 outcome indicators, including five DLIs, all derived from the ESDFP Results Framework. The information on indicators was collected through a variety of sources, including project monitoring checklists, annual school census, public examinations, and national assessments of learning outcomes. Monitoring was done at the national level by the MoE and the World Bank and at the provincial level by the MLGPC and provincial education authorities. The World Bank also conducted biannual supervision and implementation support missions and bimonthly progress review visits with the OMSU and DFAT to selected schools, divisions, and zones. The missions helped assess progress, provide implementation support, identify potential education and operational constraints, and identify ways to assist the GoSL to address these constraints to improve performance. Regular bimonthly monitoring meetings, chaired by the chief secretary at the provincial council with the participation of top education officials, were very useful to assess project progress, verify monitoring data, and find local solutions to problems. In addition to education indicators, the TSEP team monitored the project progress on procurement, flow of funds, environmental safeguards, governance, and audits in such visits.

71. Evaluation activities were also contracted out to an independent research agency, NEREC. Policy research was undertaken by the MoE, National Education Commission, and the provinces, mainly with the assistance of specialized research agencies, such as universities, research institutes, NEREC, and NIE. Third-party evaluations were conducted by the Sri Lanka Association for the Advancement of Education Development. The results of the monitoring exercises were regularly communicated to the relevant officials and, where needed, remedial actions were included in the implementation plans.

M&E Utilization

72. The results of monitoring and information from various sources (such as OMSU, annual reports, census reports, national learning assessment reports, World Bank Aide Mémoires and Management Letters) were shared and used at both the central and provincial levels. Such information was used to strengthen the implementation of interventions (for example, PSI and SBTD) and for the development of strategy and decision making. The results of the national learning assessment reports were rigorously analyzed and disseminated to provinces.


Page 24 of 46

Justification of Overall Rating of Quality of M&E

73. The ICR assigns a substantial rating to the quality of M&E for the following reasons. First, the results and indicators identified for the M&E framework as a whole (that is, including the results and monitoring indicators as well as the DLIs) captured the Theory of Change’s key results with mechanisms designed for the most part to generate valid, reliable, and accurate information on time; though in some minor cases, the indicators might have been more precisely defined. Second, implementation of the M&E framework was satisfactory, generating information and third-party verifications as needed to monitor and validate implementation progress; though there were moderate shortcomings in conducting more in-depth evaluations. Third, operationalization of the M&E framework, particularly for key results, has achieved a level of regular use and methodological soundness that are institutionally embedded in the MoE.

B. ENVIRONMENTAL, SOCIAL, AND FIDUCIARY COMPLIANCE

Environmental Safeguards

74. Considering the scope of the TSEP, project interventions did not cause significant and/or irreversible environmental impacts. Environmental impacts were carefully considered when selecting sites for constructing new buildings and mitigation measures were taken, when required, to arrest the identified problem. New constructions were disallowed in environmentally sensitive areas such as wetlands, marshes, or forests. A specific achievement was the GoSL’s policy decision to progressively move away from using asbestos-cement for construction purposes which may lead to toxicity if not managed properly. Original plans of buildings were changed to replace asbestos-cement roofing with alternative roofing material such as sandwiched steel sheets that are safer for a school environment. Training programs were conducted by the OMSU at the provincial level. The World Bank and OMSU consultants continuously monitored the implementation of these initiatives in their bimonthly provincial visits.

Social Safeguards

75. The project did not trigger any social safeguard policies. There were three cases of disputes over land acquisitions, though there were no incidences of involuntary resettlement. All these cases were duly addressed and amicably settled. A grievance redressal mechanism (GRM) was implemented by the project, and minor shortcomings in implementing the GRM at the site level were noted because of the lack of public notices displayed at project sites. However, the project office noted that as there was minimal public intervention and involvement at construction sites, public grievances were minimal. All reported grievances/complaints were resolved at the site level (first tier) in all instances and no complaints/grievances had to be escalated to the project office and other relevant legal agencies (second tier) for resolution. A social audit conducted in May 2016 to review social safeguard compliance did not raise any major compliance issues but recommended strengthening the role of the community and their engagement in the project. Compliance monitoring was satisfactory.

76. The project shows considerable impact in improving access to education with high rates of student survival rates and majority of schools participating in providing access to improved learning environments, health, and nutrition and in promoting retention rates. It is also noted that to prioritize special education and nonformal education programs for CWSN, the project has continued implementation of upgraded programs to make education more accessible to CWSN. In terms of improving social cohesion the project has been successful in engaging a majority of schools (87 percent)


Page 25 of 46

to undertake multiethnic student and teacher interactions in educational activities to enhance multicultural links. In gender equity, the student beneficiaries of the project consist of 52 percent female students and 48 percent male students, which is consistent with Sri Lanka’s overall gender ratio (52 percent females and 48 percent males). To promote regional equity in access to education, the project has provided additional support to the provinces with weaker education outcomes prioritizing needy schools, many of which were in the war-affected Northern and Eastern Provinces.

Fiduciary Compliance

77. Disbursement of the TSEP funds and fund distribution to the education sector were monitored by the MoE, OMSU of the MLGPC, and World Bank. The OMSU and MoE collected monthly financial information from spending units at the center and provinces and compiled biannual interim unaudited financial reports (IUFRs) according to formats specified in the Project Operations Manual. In addition to IUFRs, annual consolidated financial statements were prepared for the TSEP based on the annual appropriation accounts of the central MoE, nine provincial ministries in charge of education, and nine provincial departments of education of the GoSL and were forwarded to the Auditor General of the GoSL for external audit.

78. The audits from 2012 to 2016 were conducted by the Auditor General and audit reports were submitted within due dates with occasional delays. The issues reported in the audits reports were minor and were successfully resolved by the GoSL, resulting in favorable opinions by the Auditor General. The audit reports on the TSEP’s performance during 2016 were submitted in June 2017 and the audit opinions were favorable. No significant issues were noted with respect to financial monitoring and audits during the project period.

C. BANK PERFORMANCE Rating: Satisfactory

Quality at Entry

79. The ICR team identified several preparation strengths displayed by the World Bank team during the period covering the identification, preparation/design, appraisal, and negotiation of the TSEP, as described in paragraph 64. The TSEP had a focused design with realistic objectives. The PDO was highly relevant and remained so throughout the project. The design of the activities and outputs supported by the project were closely linked to the PDO. The objectives were aligned with the GoSL’s development priorities and World Bank’s CPF. The design was based on extensive consultations with various stakeholders at all levels and drew on the World Bank’s experience in education projects in Sri Lanka and other countries. It was tightly focused and promised to yield benefits in terms of achievements well beyond the cost of its interventions because of the leverage to be gained by improving system governance and accountability. \.

80. The TSEP activities built on national and international good/best practices (school autonomy, community-led accountability, SBTD, CLIL, and so on). As endorsed by a reviewer’s comment before the decision meeting, a key strength of the design was the use of the basic principles of subsidiarity in decision making that allowed the lowest possible levels to make the decisions—schools, divisions, zones, provinces, and national in that order. Project consultations with development partners (DFAT) ensured alignment of the proposed project activities with the priorities and activities of the other development partners. The project design paid adequate attention to implementation arrangements to ensure compliance with the World Bank’s relevant policies and procedures. The project was suitably appraised in


Page 26 of 46

its economic and financial dimensions. The fiduciary arrangements were thoroughly appraised, with risks clearly identified and mitigated in design. The mitigation measures that were proposed were realistic and informed by lessons learned from education projects in Sri Lanka and other countries.

Quality of Supervision

81. The task team leader for the lending cycle continued in that role until the end of the implementation cycle. This not only provided continuity to the World Bank supervision but also consistent and timely on-site implementation support and close communication with the key counterparts on an ongoing basis. The project files attest to 10 field supervision/implementation support missions being carried out during the entire implementation period. A key strength of these missions was the regular visit to provinces, and all provinces were covered during the successive missions. In addition, as mentioned in paragraph 71, bimonthly progress review visits were also conducted by the World Bank together with the OMSU and Australian Agency for International Development. A total of 12 Implementation Status and Results Reports (ISRs) were also filed in the World Bank system, implying that in the six-year span since the issuing of the first ISR, these reporting documents were updated, on average, twice a year.

82. Overall, the supervision missions included the appropriate skill-mix to carry out the task. The missions were well planned, and the Aide Mémoires were prepared regularly and alerted the GoSL to issues with project implementation. The ISRs were detailed and provided the management with a transparent and robust assessment of the project’s achievements and challenges. The continuity and local presence of the World Bank and sustained dialogue with the Government counterparts yielded positive results in the project activities.

Justification of Overall Rating of Bank Performance

83. The project activities and outputs were well thought out and closely linked to the PDO. The quality at entry may have benefited from improving the choice of indicators. The supervision was extremely effective, and the World Bank task team was proactive in identifying and solving implementation challenges. The project was fully disbursed and made a major positive impact on outcomes by supporting various activities under the ESDFP because of enhanced supervision efforts. All the outcome and intermediate outcome indicators were achieved and, in some cases, exceeded. Hence, the overall performance of the World Bank is rated Satisfactory.

D. RISK TO DEVELOPMENT OUTCOME

84. The GoSL is fully committed to continuing the ESDFP. The institutional development mechanisms are in place to ensure the program’s sustainability beyond the World Bank’s support. However, there are variations in capacities across zones despite progress under the TSEP. Planning and execution capacity remains weaker in some lagging zones. This needs to be addressed to better sustain the TSEP achievements under the successor operation. Further, while the number of out-of-school children has been significantly reduced, the efforts to bring the remaining children into the school systems need to be sustained to continue the trajectory of reduction.

85. Addressing these risks and targeting interventions with a special focus on lagging provinces need to be the focus of the program moving forward. The World Bank’s continued engagement, particularly through the new project (General Education Modernization Project), is expected to ensure that the outcomes achieved under the TSEP are maintained and that the lessons learned are incorporated, to the extent possible, to further improve the primary and secondary education system.


Page 27 of 46

V. LESSONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS

86. Government commitment and coordination between departments. Strong Government commitment and effective coordination is critical for successfully steering a large reform program and improving service delivery. Good coordination between departments in the MoE as well as the partnership between the MoE and provinces, when responsibilities were shared, were key to achievement of the ESDFP goals. This aspect was weak at commencement of the program, but improved significantly by 2016. The directors of the relevant MoE branches took the lead to resolve this issue in the ministry and their work was better coordinated by the end of the project period. Coordination between the MoE and provinces also improved to a large extent. A good communications strategy, where the project objectives and roles and responsibilities are communicated clearly, might be helpful in strengthening the commitment and understanding of future projects among the various stakeholders.

87. Flexibility in planning. One of the key lessons from the project was the planning process as embedded in the rolling education sector plan. The five-year rolling plan was to be reviewed and updated every year based on past implementation experience and in the light of new information and policy needs and priorities. This provided provided flexibility for provinces and to individual education institutions to update and improve development plans and actions periodically to respond to new circumstances.

88. Regional equity. There was a variation across provinces and schools in the capability to implement the ESDFP initiatives, level of commitment, and consequent performance. Central agencies such as the MoE and Provincial Education Authorities need to provide extra support to bring forward lagging provinces and weaker schools. More guidance and motivation and better monitoring would improve the situation. In addition, mechanisms through which weaker provinces learn and benefit from the stronger provinces are very useful.

89. Capacity building. Building the capacity of key stakeholders is important for project management and sustainability. There was a need to provide continuous capacity building to officials in the education sector for the TSEP to succeed. Workshops and lectures delivered by consultants and resource persons and education officials in the central ministry and in the provinces on the PSI, SBTD, CLIL, SHN, primary education, and curriculum development were motivational and a boost to performance. Regular training sessions in procurement and finance provided by the OMSU also significantly strengthened capacity in the provinces. Inadequate staffing and capacity constraints, especially at the provincial and zonal levels, may have led to implementation challenges and adversely affected project implementation. Continued capacity building of subnational officials and key stakeholders at the provincial, zonal, and school levels is essential.

90. Results Framework and M&E. The project’s Results Framework plays an important role in monitoring project progress and improving project performance. The Results Framework needs to be carefully developed at project preparation and should be focused on outcomes and impacts as much as possible. In the TSEP, regular external monitoring at the level of the school, zone, and province along with technical assistance and regular discussions on expected outcomes and indicators set to achieve them encouraged implementers to drive the program forward and achieve targets. The DLIs helped achieve targets on time. Evaluation processes need to be developed to be able to attribute change to interventions.

.


Page 28 of 46

ANNEX 1. RESULTS FRAMEWORK AND KEY OUTPUTS

A. RESULTS INDICATORS A.1 PDO Indicators

Objective/Outcome: Enhance access to primary and secondary education

Indicator Name Unit of Measure Baseline Original Target Formally Revised

Target

Actual Achieved at Completion

The survival rate of students up to Grade 11 (age 16 years) in the education system.

Percentage 82.00 88.00 88.00 88.00

25-Oct-2011 30-Jun-2017 31-Dec-2017 15-Jun-2018

Comments (achievements against targets): The target was fully achieved.


Target


Direct project beneficiaries Number 0.00 4000000.00 4000000.00 4379329.00

25-Oct-2011 30-Jun-2017 31-Dec-2017 15-Jun-2018

Female beneficiaries Percentage 0.00 50.00 50.00 52.00

25-Oct-2011 30-Jun-2017 31-Dec-2017 15-Jun-2018


Page 29 of 46

Comments (achievements against targets): The target was exceeded. Objective/Outcome: Enhance the quality of primary and secondary education


Target


System for learning assessment at the primary level

Yes/No N Y Y Y

25-Oct-2011 30-Jun-2017 31-Dec-2017 15-Jun-2018

Utility of the learning assessment system

Number 0.00 4.00 4.00 4.00

25-Oct-2011 30-Jun-2017 31-Dec-2017 15-Jun-2018

Comments (achievements against targets): The target was fully achieved. Objective/Outcome: Strengthening governance and delivery of education services


Target


Program for School Improvement

Text PSI defined and circular developed.

Schools in 100 percent of zones complete the PSI cycle.

Schools in 100 percent of zones have completed the PSI annual cycle.

Schools in 100 percent of zones have completed the PSI annual cycle.

25-Oct-2011 30-Jun-2017 31-Dec-2017 15-Jun-2018



Page 30 of 46

A.2 Intermediate Results Indicators

Component: Enhance access to primary and secondary education

Unlinked Indicators


Target


Education sector plan Text Initial Education Sector Rolling Plan prepared for FY12.

Education Sector Rolling Plan for FY17 updated by the MOE and Provinces.

Education Sector Rolling Plan for FY17 updated by the MOE and Provinces.

The Education Sector Rolling Plan for FY17 was completed and is under implementation. The plan for FY18 has been drafted by the Ministry of Education and the Provincial Councils.

30-Jun-2017 30-Jun-2017 30-Nov-2017 15-Jun-2018

Comments (achievements against targets):


Target


Bilingual Education Text A Content and Language Integrated Learning Framework does not exist.

A Content and Language Integrated Learning Framework introduced for

A Content and Language Integrated Learning Framework introduced for

The CLIL framework has now been introduced for secondary education


Page 31 of 46

secondary education. secondary education.

30-Jun-2017 30-Jun-2017 31-Dec-2017 15-Jun-2018



Target


Program for School Improvement

Percentage 0.00 100.00 100.00 100.00

30-Jun-2017 30-Jun-2017 31-Dec-2017 15-Jun-2018



Target


Teacher development Percentage 0.00 100.00 100.00 100.00

30-Jun-2017 30-Jun-2017 29-Dec-2017 29-Dec-2017



Target


Strengthening education zones and divisions

Percentage 0.00 100.00 100.00 100.00

30-Jun-2017 30-Jun-2017 31-Dec-2017 15-Jun-2018


Page 32 of 46



Target


School Inspectorate System Text The government has announced a policy to establish a School Inspectorate System

Inspectorate system was not a part of the original target and was introduced at the stage of restructuring.

A framework for a School Inspectorate system is developed and notified

A framework is being developed.

30-Jun-2017 30-Jun-2017 29-Jun-2018 15-Jun-2018



Target


Enhanced Program for School Improvement

Text A model of school based management is in place under the Program for School Improvement

The enhanced model of school based management is developed and notified

The enhanced model of school based management is developed and notified

The enhanced model of school based management has been developed

30-Jun-2017 30-Jun-2017 29-Jun-2018 15-Jun-2018



Page 33 of 46


Page 34 of 46

B. KEY OUTPUTS BY COMPONENT

Objective/Outcome 1: Enhance access to primary and secondary education

Outcome Indicators 1. Survival rate of students up to Grade 11 (age 16 years) in the

education system

Intermediate Results Indicators

1. Flagship secondary and primary school learning environment improvement program

2. Demand-side measures to promote participation and retention in primary and secondary education

3. Special and nonformal education programs 4. School health and nutrition programs 5. Career guidance and counseling

Key Outputs by Component (linked to the achievement of the Objective/Outcome 1)

1. Survival rate of students up to Grade 11 (age 16 years) in the education system of 88 percent achieved

2. Flagship primary and secondary school learning environment improvement program rolled out in 5,000 primary schools and 1,000 secondary schools

3. SMCs initiated action to promote participation and retention in 100 percent of zones (at least 90 percent of schools in each zone)

4. Upgraded special education and nonformal education programs for children with special needs continued

5. All schools transformed into Health Promoting Schools 6. Upgraded career guidance and counseling program in secondary

schools introduced in all provinces

Objective/Outcome 2: Enhance the quality of primary and secondary education

Outcome Indicators 1. National assessments of learning outcomes conducted according

to a regular cycle for key subjects and used for education sector program development


Page 35 of 46

2. The proportion of primary and secondary schools in which the PSI cycle of school development planning, implementation, self-assessment, reporting of results, and annual updating of the plan is completed.

Intermediate Results Indicators

1. Revision and improvement of primary education curriculum 2. Diversification and rationalization of the mathematics and science

curricula for secondary education 3. Review of textbooks with agreement on the quality of content and

promotion of social cohesion 4. Social cohesion 5. Examination information for education development: DOE

publishes an item response analysis for the GCE O/L and GCE A/L in key subjects

6. Modernizing and expanding Quality Assurance 7. Principals leadership and management 8. Timely completion of education sector level audits by the Auditor

Generals Department for both the center and provinces 9. Timely execution of procurement activities

Key Outputs by Component (linked to the achievement of the Objective/Outcome 2)

1. Designing and conducting national assessments of learning outcomes according to a regular cycle for key subjects and use for education program development completed

2. Schools in 100 percent of zones completed SBTD programs (at least 90 percent of schools in each zone)

3. CLIL framework introduced for bilingual education for Grades 6–13

4. New curricula, teacher instruction manuals, and learning materials developed and used for Grades 1–3

5. New mathematics and science curricula introduced in select grades

6. Reviews panels reviewed and pass 100 percent of relevant textbooks (languages, history, mathematics, and science)


Page 36 of 46

7. Multiethnic student and teacher interactions took place in the educational activities in 100 percent of zones (at least 90 percent of schools in each zone)

8. Item response analysis published for key subjects in the GCE O/L and A/L examination

9. Upgraded Quality Assurance program linked to the PSI introduced in all 9 provinces.

10. Schools in 100 percent of zones completed the PSI cycle (at least 90 percent of schools in each zone)

11. SDCs and SMCs organized and trained for the PSI in all zones 12. Strengthened education development and management at zonal

and divisional levels 13. Training programs conducted for teachers, members of the SDCs

and SMCs, principals, and management officials in the education system

14. Timely completion of education sector level audits by the Auditor General Department for both the center and provinces achieved

15. Timely execution of procurement activities achieved


Page 37 of 46

ANNEX 2. BANK LENDING AND IMPLEMENTATION SUPPORT/SUPERVISION

A. TASK TEAM MEMBERS

Name Role

Preparation

Supervision/ICR

Harsha Aturupane Task Team Leader(s)

G. W. Anjali U. Perera Vitharanage Procurement Specialist(s)

Bernadeen Enoka Wijegunawardene Financial Management Specialist

Kerima C. Thilakasena Team Member

Helen J. Craig Team Member

Alejandro Welch Team Member

Anita Lakshmi Fernando Team Member

Satish Kumar Shivakumar Team Member

Mari Shojo Team Member

Bandita Sijapati Social Safeguards Specialist

Roshini Mary Ebenezer Team Member

Janardhanan Ramanujam Team Member

Mokshana Nerandika Wijeyeratne Environmental Safeguards Specialist

Vidya Venugopal Team Member

B. STAFF TIME AND COST

Stage of Project Cycle Staff Time and Cost

No. of staff weeks US$ (including travel and consultant costs)

Preparation

FY11 31.772 146,134.06

FY12 32.532 226,374.99

FY13 0 - 0.02


Page 38 of 46

Total 64.30 372,509.03

Supervision/ICR

FY11 0 60.19

FY12 18.400 41,738.03

FY13 64.312 567,300.91

FY14 55.784 593,161.27

FY15 67.622 885,078.17

FY16 85.389 886,853.19

FY17 22.299 404,791.25

FY18 25.864 254,846.36

FY19 2.250 35,008.54

Total 341.92 3,668,837.91


Page 39 of 46

ANNEX 3. PROJECT COST BY COMPONENT

Components Amount at Approval

(US$, millions)

Actual at Project Closing (US$,

millions)

Percentage of Approval (US$,

millions )

Promoting Access to Primary and Secondary Education

30.00 30.00 0.00

Improving the Quality of Education

50.00 50.00 0.00

Strengthening Governance and Delivery of Education Services

20.00 20.00 0.00

Total 100.00 100.00 0.00


Page 40 of 46

ANNEX 4. EFFICIENCY ANALYSIS

1. The project achieved its objectives efficiently within the original time frame with full disbursement and the achievements can be rated Substantial. The implementation and design of the project were well thought out, and a number of noteworthy efficiency gains took place under the project:

(a) The project used resources in an efficient manner with a focus on results and achieved the project-intended outcomes successfully. For some indicators, the results exceeded the targets identified for the project.

(b) The survival rate of students up to Grade 11 increased from a baseline of 82 percent to 88 percent. This is an evidence of increased efficiency of the internal system and reduced wastage of public and private resources.

(c) Enhanced learning outcomes are important to improve Sri Lanka’s performance and competitiveness in the global knowledge economy. The project has contributed to improved students’ learning outcomes in key subjects.

(d) The project initiatives allowed empowerment of schools with managerial functions and enabled stakeholders such as parents, past pupils, and local well-wishers to participate and assist in the development of schools. This has resulted in improved efficiency in delivery of education services.

(e) Data and information were collected from various sources and were shared and used at both the central and provincial levels. Such information was used to strengthen the implementation of interventions (for example, PSI and SBTD) and for the development of strategy and decision making. This has enhanced efficiency in program design and implementation.

Economic Analysis

2. The economic analysis is an assessment of benefits and costs associated with the project using realized data at the end of the project. It uses the approach of comparing net benefits in two scenarios, one with the project and one without (the counterfactual). Economic costs include total project costs and private costs that comprise direct household outlays as well as opportunity costs for schooling. Similarly, the benefits are taken to be those changes in the quantity, quality, and reduction in internal inefficiency of education produced over the period as a result of the project. Although there are different types of benefits from providing an individual with additional years of education, the cost-benefit analysis focuses on economic benefits.

3. The PDO was to enhance equitable access and quality of primary and secondary education to provide a foundation for the knowledge-based economic and social development of the country. The cost-


Page 41 of 46

benefit analysis was conducted with similar assumptions23 used at appraisal: (a) different levels of improvement in employment rates and (b) different levels of earnings increase because of quality improvement. The sensitivity analysis using various scenarios shows that the NPV for the project benefits varies between US$357 million and US$469 million. Similarly, the IRR range remains positive from 23.7 percent in the low-case scenario to 30.4 percent in the high-case scenario. At appraisal, the incremental net present benefits of the project were estimated at US$429 million and the IRR was estimated at 33 percent. The estimates at completion turned out to be lower than the estimates at appraisal because of conservative assumptions. However, it still can be said that the project has yielded positive economic returns and thus was a sound investment.

Financial Analysis

4. The share of the TSEP in the total general education expenditure during the project period ranges from 0.4 percent to 1.9 percent. The fiscal implications of the project were minor; it was not a burden for the Government to maintain expenditures over the project period.

Table 4.1.Total Government Expenditure on General Education (US$, millions)

Province 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Total education expenditure

704.9 940.4 1,106.9 1,124.3 1,135.1 1,255.7 1,381.8

TSEP allocations 10.1 17.8 15.6 18.4 15.7 9.2 5.6

Share of TSEP in the total education budget (%)

1.4 1.9 1.4 1.6 1.4 0.7 0.4

23 A base case is built on the following key assumptions. First, the benefit stream is calculated over a 20-year time frame (a 15-year period with a 5-year lag after the project started). The annual growth rate in wages is close to the average annual growth rate in gross domestic product. A discount rate of 12 percent is assumed to calculate the NPV of project benefits. The average employment rates one year after completing secondary education is assumed to increase and reach 80 percent. Secondary education completers’ average monthly wage over primary completers is LKR 6,911 (data source: Household Income and Expenditure Survey). Private household annual cost per student for secondary education over for primary education is LKR 21,677 (data source: Household Income and Expenditure Survey). The premium expected from the improvements brought by the project intervention is assumed to increase earnings by 8.5 percent, because of quality and relevance improvement.


Page 42 of 46

ANNEX 5. BORROWER, CO-FINANCIER AND OTHER PARTNER/STAKEHOLDER COMMENTS

Government of Sri Lanka Comments

1. The World Bank-funded TSEP was an innovative sector-wide programmatic operation, which was integrated into the educational programmes of the Government of Sri Lanka (GoSL). It was implemented through the national-level education agencies [i.e. Ministry of Education (MoE), National Institute of Education (NIE), Department of Examinations (DoE), Department of Education Publications (DEP)] and the provincial-level education agencies [i.e. Provincial Ministries of Education (PME), Provincial Departments of Education (PDE), Zonal Education Offices (ZEO)] and schools. Based on the available evidences and opinions of the stakeholders, the overall performance of the TSEP (2012-2018) was assessed as highly satisfactory, in terms of implementation progress and the achievements of anticipated development objectives. The key outcomes supported by the programme have been either achieved or exceeded during the programme period.

2. TSEP (2012-2018) is categorised as a well-performed project based on following evidences. The project was scheduled to be implemented within the period of 2012-2018 and it was successfully completed within the given timeframe. Also according to the financial records TSEP has fully-invested the entire amount of the World Bank’s credit worth of US$ 100.00 million as well as the Government of Australia’s grant worth of US$ 39.00 million. TSEP’s programmatic approach enabled the education system dynamically to flow the programme implementation processes into the education system and the same has resulted in fullest achievements of the project key outcomes, while it assisted increase the economic efficiency by maintaining a minimal transaction cost.

3. TSEP implemented under the following policy themes.

Theme 1: Promotion of equitable access to primary and secondary education. Theme 2: Improving the quality of primary and secondary education. Theme 3: Strengthening governance and delivery of education services. The foundation: Formulation of education sector strategic rolling plan. Crosscutting activity: Results-based monitoring and evaluation mechanisms. PDO level indicators:

1. The survival rate of students up to grades 11 (age 16 years) in the education system. 2. National assessments of learning outcomes conducted according to a regular cycle for key subjects

and used for education sector programme development. 3. The proportion of primary and secondary schools in which the Programme for School Improvement

(PSI) cycle of school development, planning, implementation, self-assessment, reporting of results and annual updating of the plan was completed.

Disbursement-Linked Indicators:

1. Education sector plan. 2. School-based teacher development (SBTD) programmes established. 3. Content and Language Integrated Learning (CLIL) Framework to be developed and established. 4. PSI: School Development Societies (SDSs), School Development Committees (SDCs) and School

Management Committees (SMCs) organized and trained for the PSI.


Page 43 of 46

5. Strengthening education development and management at zonal and divisional levels. Intermediate outcome level indicators:

1. Flagship secondary and primary school learning environment improvement programme. 2. Demand-side measures to promote participation and retention in primary and secondary

education. 3. Special and non-formal education programmes. 4. School health and nutrition programmes. 5. Career guidance and counselling. 6. Revised and improved primary education curriculum. 7. Secondary education curriculum: Diversification and rationalization of the mathematics and science

curricula for secondary education. 8. Improving textbook quality: Textbooks reviewed and agreed for the quality of contents and

promotion of social cohesion. 9. Social cohesion: Number of students and teachers from different ethnic backgrounds engaged in

joint educational, co-curricular and extra-curricular activities. 10. Examination information for education development: Department of Examinations publishes an

item response analysis for the GCE OL and AL key subjects such as mathematics, science, English and first language (Sinhala and Tamil).

11. Modernising and expanding quality assurance. 12. Principals’ leadership and management. 13. Timely completion of education sector level audits by the Auditor Generals Department for both in

central and provincial levels. 14. Timely execution of procurement activities.

Newly added intermediate outcome indicators for the extended project period:

1. School inspectorate system. 2. Enhanced Programme for School Improvement (EPSI).

4. The promotions of equitable access to primary and secondary education continued to demonstrate a strong progress. The survival rate in the compulsory basic education cycle (grades 1-11) has increased from the pre-programme baseline of about 82 per cent to 88 per cent at the end of 2017, well ahead the targeted level.

5. The quality of education, as measured through cognitive achievement scores, has improved and these improvements have exceeded the target level. An increasing pattern of cognitive achievement scores were reported for first language (Sinhala and Tamil), English and mathematics in grade 4 national assessments of learning outcomes, and for English, mathematics, and science and technology in grade 8, between the period of 2012 and 2018.

6. The PSI is an innovative programme, which supported balanced-control model of school-based management (SBM) by increasing the active participation of school communities. With its uprising popularity, all schools continued participating. The PSI reveals significant impact on improving learning achievements of primary and secondary students in Sri Lanka and efficacy of the SBM practices. Based on the learnt lessons from the PSI, policymakers, planners and technocrats planned to introduce EPSI as an advanced version of the PSI.


Page 44 of 46

7. Among the successful stories and lessons learnt of this programme, followings are noteworthy. While the operational practices taken place, a planning culture was established in the education system of Sri Lanka. Since 2006, the outcome-oriented plan-based budgeting practices chiefly applied in the education sector, which was absent in the past.

8. The knowledge, understanding and capacity of the provincial education authorities (PEAs) on policy framework and performance indicators of the TSEP (2012 - 2018) has improved substantially with this programme. The main support provided for provinces was the improvement of school infrastructure development activities.

9. National-level academic coordination, operational and technical directions, and commitment of the officers at national and provincial levels are outstanding factors of the success of these programmes. Because of the TSEP (2012 - 2018) initiatives, the ownership and accountability of the system have been remarkably built-up. At the implementation of TSEP (2012 - 2018), an additional payments were not provided to any of the officers at national and provincial level and no additional project staff and supportive staff were recruited (except the provincial coordination carried out by the MPCLG). Thereby, all the activities were carried out by the existing government officials who made this project an exemplary lesson to all.

10. Nevertheless, as usual in the service sectors, several constraints also affected the implementation of this programme such as consultants’ role, long procedures and implementation constraints of procurement and civil works activities, mismatch of the existing accounting systems, lack of understanding and negative attitudes of very few officials in the system etc. However, it was able to overcome such operational caveats and complete the activities successfully as planned by taking several remedial measures in time. At the implementation stage, a number of progress reviews and monitoring meetings and sessions, high-level monitoring meetings, follow-up sessions were organised and conducted frequently (i.e. monthly, quarterly and annually).

11. As the annual implementation plan is a flexible, through a series of meetings and discussions, the plan was amended considering a few justifiable and reasonable matters and some activities submitted due to various developments in the system in terms of policy and national requirements that were thought to be important. There is no doubt that such measures unconditionally had an impact on the success of the TSEP (2012 - 2018).

12. It is evident that the TSEP has mostly contributed to transform the school system as the foundation of a knowledge hub during the project period through the following programmes and activities.

• The TSEP directly and indirectly contributed to initiate13 years guaranteed education policy initiative of the education reform agenda. Under this initiative, the national curriculum was modernized and diversified to a certain extent. As a result, vocational- and technical-based curriculum was introduced for 13 years guaranteed education initiative.

• Strengthening the quality assurance of schools has been a major target of the TSEP as well as for the earlier projects. Based on the lessons learnt from the past, new education reform agenda, actions were taken to initiate the establishment of independent school inspectorate.


Page 45 of 46

• During the period of implementation of TSEP, all schools implemented SBTD programmes and this initiative became popular among school teachers. Based on the lessons learnt from the implementation of SBTD programmes, policymakers, planners and technocrats planned to introduced school-based professional teacher development (SBPTD) programmes as an advanced version of the SBTD.

• In terms of service delivery aspects in education, the ZEOs are the most critical point in the system. During the period of TSEP, zonal and divisional education offices were provided with technical and financial assistance in order to improve their service delivery aspects. The Moe, in collaboration with the provincial education authorities have taken necessary actions to restructure zonal and divisional education management structures in line with the contemporary development of education in the country.

• During the period of TSEP, more emphasis has been given for providing modern technologies for teaching and learning at classrooms in order to improve the learning outcomes of students. As an extension of such attempts, the MoE has taken actions to provide e-libraries and introducing e-textbooks and digital-based learning resources to schools.

• TESP has given more weight to improve the capacities of education personnel and implement a number of HRD programmes to improve the skilled-human capital in the system of education. However, this project was not able to provide long-term masters’ degree programmes for education staff extensively. The vitality of this programme has been identified and included as a major component in the forthcoming GEM Project. This has been a visionary target to inculcate knowledge-sharing culture in the education system. Also throughout the project period several learning materials and expertise shared their knowledge with the peer-groups and professionals colleagues as an initiative step of promoting knowledge sharing.

• One of the significant impact of the TSEP was that all the programme initiatives have considered their sustainability of each programme and initiatives. Evidently, many other donor-funded projects have introduced many initiatives, but was not long run in the system after the project terminated. However, many Bank-funded programmes are implementing hitherto in the system with some further improvements with value adding.


Page 46 of 46

ANNEX 6. SUPPORTING DOCUMENTS (IF ANY)

implementation completion and results report (icr)...

Documents