impact of the clean development mechanism
TRANSCRIPT
Impact of the Clean Development Mechanism
Quantifying the current and pre-2020 mitigation impact of the CDMEvent name02 December 2015 – German Pavilion, COP21 Paris
Thomas Day, NewClimate Institute
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Insights from BMUB research
CDM portfolio analysisAug 2013 – Oct 2015Institutions: NewClimate Institute, Ecofys, TÜV SÜDPublications:
Status Report released in May 20153 Focus Studies in preparation
02.12.2015 www.newclimate.org
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Impacts of CDM report
02.12.2015 www.newclimate.org
Status of CDM projects, relative to emission reductionsQuantification of net-mitigation impact of the CDMPre-2020 outlook for credit demand and supply
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Net-mitigation impact
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Unintended
Undesirable
The CDM is designed as a zero-sum offsetting mechanism
Unintentional net-mitigation comes with a enormous cost in terms of disenfranchised private investors
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Assessment methodology
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Emission reductions
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Emission reductions
~750 MtCO2e
emission reduction activity took place,
representing
> 73%of theoretical maximum
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Emission reductions
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Emissions decreasing up to 2020 under BAUScenarios with higher CER price do not equate to much greater volume of emission reductions
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Credit supply
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Credit supply
~270 mCERs
May be issued, representing
27%of theoretical maximum
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Credit supply
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Credit supply decreasing up to 2020 under BAUModest demand increase required to recovery to EUR 2Recovery to higher CER prices requires major demand increase or non-market intervention
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Impacts of CDM report
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Net mitigation impact 2014
480 MtCO2e
64% of all CDM emission reduction activity~1% of global GHG emissions
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Net mitigation impact
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Net mitigation impact decreases up to 2020 under BAUHigher CER prices will slash the net-mitigation impact, restoring investor confidence.
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Summary
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See paper for:Technology specific results
In 2014:
Emission reduction activity: ~750 MtCO2e
Credit supply: ~270 million CERSNet mitigation impact: ~480 MtCO2e
64% of all emission reduction activity and 1% of global emissionsHigher CER prices → no major increase in emission reduction activityCER price of EUR 2 requires only modest demand increaseCER price of EUR 5 generates major increase in credit supply
www.newclimate.org 13
Thank youThomas Day, NewClimate Institute [email protected]
Download the report:Impact of the Clean Development Mechanismat newclimate.org
02.12.2015
1429.10.2015 www.newclimate.org
1529.10.2015 www.newclimate.org
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Net-mitigation per technology
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Net-mitigation per technology
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Status of projects
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www.newclimate.org 1902.12.2015
www.newclimate.org 2002.12.2015