impact of cc_bala and ravindranath

8/9/2019 Impact of CC_Bala and Ravindranath

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Prof. G. BalaProf. Ravindranath

R. Chaturvedi, R. Gopalakrishnan, M. Jayaraman,S.Swarnim, N. Sharma and S. Afreen

Indian Institute of Science,Bangalore


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Impacts of Climate Change &

Vulnerability of ForestEcosystems IPCC, 2007 Findings

1. Populations of threatened species are expected to beat greater risk Species that are currently classified as critically endangered will become

extinct 1/3 to 2/3 species at risk of extinction

Loss of biodiversity2. Species composition and dominance will be altered,

resulting in ecosystem changes

3. Shifts in forest types boundary Altitude & Latitude

4. Forest die-back / mortality Climate will change faster than capacity of plants to migrate

5. Increase and later decrease in biomass productivity


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Studies by IISc Assessed climate impacts on forest ecosystems

Area under different forest types plant functional types Net Primary Productivity

Emissions Scenarios: SRES A2 and B2

Climate model projections HadRM3 (from IITM,

Pune) Global Vegetation Models used

BIOME4 & IBIS ( Integrated Biosphere Simulator)

Status of work Preliminary modeling results available at national level for

the period 2070 to 2100 Awaiting climate projections for 2030 and 2050 to make

projections for short and medium term


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National level results fromIBIS modeling

For A2 scenario, Indian terrestrial ecosystems

take up about 15 Gt-C by the end of the century

Natural potential vegetation map shows 35 %

increase in forest cover primarily because ofCO2-fertilization (In the absence of CO2-

fertilization forest cover decreases by 15%)

Indian terrestrial ecosystem will take up 16 % ofthe total emissions (94 Gt-C) from India

projected for A2 scenario


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Impact on Forest cover (1975 -

2085) IBIS (A2 scenario) Modeloutputs

Climatic effect(warming)decreases the

forest cover by15%

Climate effect plusCO2-fertilizationenhances theforest cover by

35%


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Impact on NPP (1975 - 2085)

IBIS (A2 scenario) Model outputs

Climatic effect(warming) decreasesNet Primary

Productivity (NPP)by 13 %

CO2-fertilizationenhances NPP by

82%


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Impact on vegetation type (% change)

according to Champion and Sethclassification during the period 1960-

1990 to 2070-2100 (A2 Scenario)

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

Tropical wet evergreen forests

Tropical moist decidious forest

Tropical thorny/scrub forests

Littoral and swampy forest

Subtropical pine forests

Montane wet temperate forests

Himalayan dry temperate forests

Moist alpineB2 A2


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Impac

tof

climat

echa

ngeo

soil

carbo

nstoc

k(A2

and

scena

rios)

0 510

15

20

25


Tropical semi evergreen forests


Tropical dry decidious forest


Tropical dry evergreen forest


Subtropical broad -leaved hill forests


Sub-tropical dry evergreen forests


Himalayan wet/ moist temperate

forests


SOC (in Kg/m2)

Bas

eline

2085_


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Impact on NPP (% change) according

to Champion and Seth classificationduring the period 1960-1990 to 2070-

2100 (A2 and B2 scenarios)

-40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160








Moist alpine B2 A2


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Impact of Climate Change on Pine,Teak and Sal (A2 scenario)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

2025 2055 2085

%gr

idundergoingchange

Sal Teak Pine

Sal forests are relatively resilient compared to Teak and

Pine; Thus a good candidate for forest Conservation and

natural Regeneration projects.


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Biodiversity and NPP

Implications

IBIS model outputs indicate 52% forested grids

will be impacted Future climate is not optimal for the existing forest

types or species assemblage or biodiversity

Though models indicate forests benefiting fromCO2 elevation (due to CO2 fertilization) Tropical forests are generally poor in nitrogen and

other nutrients - thus may not benefit from elevated

CO2 Biodiversity likely to be adversely impacted

since the future climate may not be suitable for

existing vegetation types


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Future plans

Climate change in near

term

Preliminary modeling resultsavailable at national level for

the period 2070 to 2100

Awaiting climate projections

for 2030 and 2050 to make

projections for short and

medium term

Vulnerability index maps(based on veg change,

type and thickness of veg)

impact of cc_bala and ravindranath

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