icici prudential growth fund - series 2 (presentation)

32
• Long term wealth creation solution • A close-ended diversified equity fund that aims to provide capital appreciation by investing in equity and equity related instruments. * Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them. HIGH RISK (BROWN) This product is suitable for investors who are seeking*: (BLUE) investors understand that their principal will be at low risk (YELLOW) investors understand that their principal will be at medium risk (BROWN) investors understand that their principal will be at high risk Note: Risk may be represented as: Growth Fund - Series 2 Growth Fund - Series 2 NFO Period: July 14, 2014 to July 28, 2014

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Page 1: ICICI Prudential Growth Fund - Series 2 (Presentation)

• Long term wealth creation solution• A close-ended diversified equity fund that aims to provide capital appreciation by investing in equity

and equity related instruments.* Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them.

HIGH RISK(BROWN)

This product is suitable for investors who are seeking*:

(BLUE) investors understand that their principal will be at low risk

(YELLOW) investors understand that their principal will be at medium risk

(BROWN) investors understand that their principal will be at high risk

Note: Risk may be represented as:

Growth Fund - Series 2Growth Fund - Series 2NFO Period: July 14, 2014 to July 28, 2014

Page 2: ICICI Prudential Growth Fund - Series 2 (Presentation)

2

CONTENT

Why Now?1

Identifying Growth Stocks in the Market4

Earnings and Market Performance2

Growth Opportunities3

ICICI Prudential Growth Fund - Series 25

Page 3: ICICI Prudential Growth Fund - Series 2 (Presentation)

3

Why Now?

Page 4: ICICI Prudential Growth Fund - Series 2 (Presentation)

4

Strong Government

IIP – Index of Industrial Production

HISTORY

Revival ofEconomy

High IIP

Strong Government

Reforms

Quick Decision

FUTURE EXPECTATIONS

Low Interest Rates

Scams

Coalition Government

Page 5: ICICI Prudential Growth Fund - Series 2 (Presentation)

5Source: MFI Explorer

The last time the market saw a majority mandate for any government was in 1984. This slide is just for the understanding and reference of market movements over the period of time and the same shall not be construed as the reflection of future market movements.

Sensex Performance Post 1984

S&P BSE Sensex

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989

Clear Majority in 1984

24% CAGR Return

(1st Dec’84 to 1st Jan’90)

Page 6: ICICI Prudential Growth Fund - Series 2 (Presentation)

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• 56% of total savings of Indian household is invested in Real Estate.

• Only 2.3% is invested in Equities.

Domestic Investors Underweight Equity

Source: RBI, SEBI, CLSA; Data as of March 14

Equities2.30%

Total assets:US $ 6 Trillion

Property56.10%

Gold14.20%

BankDeposits 15%

Cash3.10%Insurance

funds 5.20%

Provident andpension funds

4.10%

Page 7: ICICI Prudential Growth Fund - Series 2 (Presentation)

Source: www.nseindia.com; PE – Price to Earnings; PB – Price to Book 7

From PB & PE perspective, markets are trading at fair valuations.

Market Valuations

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

26

28

30

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

Nifty Trailing P/E Ratio Nifty Trailing P/B Ratio

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

Page 8: ICICI Prudential Growth Fund - Series 2 (Presentation)

8

• Historically, MSCI India commands a premium vis-a-vis MSCI Emerging Market.

• From a valuation gap perspective, it still trades at a discount to long term average.

Market Valuations Low from FII’s Perspective

0.00

10.00

20.00

30.00

40.00

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

MSCI India MSCI Emerging

PE Valuations of MSCI Emergingand India Index

0.00

2.00

4.00

6.00

8.00

10.00

12.00

14.00

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

PE Difference Average PE Difference

PE Valuations between MSCI India and MSCI Emerging Market Index

Source: Bloomberg; PE – Price to Earnings

PE PE

Page 9: ICICI Prudential Growth Fund - Series 2 (Presentation)

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Earnings expected to Grow

Source: Motilal Oswal Securities

216 236 272348

450523

718833 820 834

1,0241,123 1,184

1,339

1,525

1,811

FY01

FY02

FY03

FY04

FY05

FY06

FY07

FY08

FY09

FY10

FY11

FY12

FY13

FY14

FY15

E

FY16

E

FY93-13: 14% CAGR

FY01-08: 21% CAGR

FY08-14: 8% CAGR

FY14-16E:

16% CAGR

Page 10: ICICI Prudential Growth Fund - Series 2 (Presentation)

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Earnings and Market Performance

Page 11: ICICI Prudential Growth Fund - Series 2 (Presentation)

Earnings, GDP Growth and Market Performance

11Source: Edelweiss Securities Ltd; Motilal Oswal; ROE – Return on Equity; GDP – Gross Domestic Product

• There is a high correlation between Sensex Earnings and India’s real GDP growth rate & Sensex movement

SensexEPS growthGDP growth

-5.0

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

40.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0Sensex EPS Growth (%)GDP Growth (%)

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

FY97

FY98

FY99

FY00

FY01

FY02

FY03

FY04

FY05

FY06

FY07

FY08

FY09

FY10

FY11

FY12

FY13

FY14

Sensex ROE (%, LHS) S&P BSE Sensex

Page 12: ICICI Prudential Growth Fund - Series 2 (Presentation)

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Relationship between Earningsand Stock Prices

This illustration is to explain the concept of stock price movement basis the change in earnings of the Company. Actual results may vary significantly from the ones mentioned here. The stocks given above should not in any manner be construed as recommendation and ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund/AMC may or may not have any future position in these stocks. The performance of stocks would ultimately depend on various factors such as prevailing market conditions, global political scenario, exchange rate etc.

Increasing Earnings andstock price outperformance

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

2003 2004 2005 2006

Asian Paints

EPS Growth Stock price growth (YoY)

Decreasing Earnings andstock price underperformance

EPS Growth Stock price growth (YoY)

-100%

-50%

0%

50%

100%

150%

200%

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Tata Steel

Source: Motilal Oswal

Page 13: ICICI Prudential Growth Fund - Series 2 (Presentation)

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Growth Opportunities

Page 14: ICICI Prudential Growth Fund - Series 2 (Presentation)

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• While some sectors have historically outperformed the BSE Sensex in terms of earnings growth, what needs to be seen is, which ones will outperform going forward.

Earnings Growth of Sensex and Sectors

Source: Kotak Securities; Indices are S&P BSE indices

-20.00

-15.00

-10.00

-5.00

0.00

5.00

10.00

15.00

20.00

25.00

30.00

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

FMCG Bankex Oil & Gas Sensex

EPS Growth (%)

Page 15: ICICI Prudential Growth Fund - Series 2 (Presentation)

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Investment in Railway Infrastructure

• All the ancillary industries namely, wagons, steel, logistics, etc. are expected to benefit from investment in Railway infrastructure.

*Three rail corridors of 334 km (Tori-Shivpuri-Kathotia in North Karanpura, Jharkhand; Bhupdeopur-Korichhaapar to Mand Raigadh mines in Chhattisgarh; and Barpali-Jharsuguda in IB Valley, Odisha)

Coal Mines Investment inRailways

PowerGeneration

Supply of coal to power generation units has

been a major problem

A long-term solution would be coal evacuation logistics*

by building additional Railway lines.

This has potential for enhancing power

generation

Page 16: ICICI Prudential Growth Fund - Series 2 (Presentation)

Defence Sector

16Source: India Budget, Axis Capital ; MoD – Ministry of Defence

• Obsolete defence equipment currently account for 50% vs. MoD norm of 30%.• Strong order book for defence electronics worth Rs 750 bn over next 3 years vs

average of Rs 117 bn in the past 3 years.

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500 (Rs bn)Defence expenditure Growth (RHS)

Page 17: ICICI Prudential Growth Fund - Series 2 (Presentation)

Power Sector

17Source: Axis Capital

• We expect power demand to recover going forward as economic activity picks up.

• Power demand is artificially depressed due to industrial slowdown.

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

FY07

FY08

FY09

FY10

FY11

FY12

FY13

FY14

Real GDP yoy growth Energy demand yoy growth

Page 18: ICICI Prudential Growth Fund - Series 2 (Presentation)

Insurance Sector

18Source: Espirito Santo Investment Bank Research

• There is a clear correlation between the GDP growth, savings rate and new business premium.

• If the economy improves, savings rate as well as new business premiums are expected to go up.

-

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

25%

27%

29%

31%

33%

35%

37%

39%

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

New

Bus

ines

s Pr

emiu

m (R

s Bn

)

% o

f GD

P

First Year Premiums Financial Savings/GDP

Page 19: ICICI Prudential Growth Fund - Series 2 (Presentation)

19Source: NCAER - National Council of Applied Economic Research

Implementation of GST

• According to a study by NCAER, a complete implementation of the GST could lift GDP growth by 0.9-1.7 percentage points for all future years.

Eliminatemultiple taxes

Increase inTax collection

Implementationof GST

Reduce the prices of goods

and services

Improve eco-nomic

efficiency

Page 20: ICICI Prudential Growth Fund - Series 2 (Presentation)

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Identifying Growth Stocks in the Market

Page 21: ICICI Prudential Growth Fund - Series 2 (Presentation)

21Source: Bloomberg, IPO - Initial Public Offer, OEM - Original Equipment Manufacturer

An Auto Ancillary Company

This slide is to illustrate the concept of identifying growth stocks in the market. There is also a possibility of the expected event not happening or some other unforeseen event that may affect performance of the company. The performance of stocks would ultimately depend on various factors such as prevailing market conditions, global political scenario, exchange rate etc.Investors are requested to note that there are various factors (both local and international) that can have impact on the future performance and expectations of any company. Information given is available in public domain. There is no assurance or guarantee of any company being able to sustain its performance in future

• The company had good record of creating shareholder value since IPO.

• Management has proven track record in acquiring companies and improving their operations.

• Clientele include almost all the top OEM players in passenger vehicle industry.

• Given the large opportunity in auto ancillary space and good execution by management, stock has delivered healthy returns.

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Page 22: ICICI Prudential Growth Fund - Series 2 (Presentation)

22Source: Bloomberg

An Engineering Company

This slide is to illustrate the concept of identifying growth stocks in the market. There is also a possibility of the expected event not happening or some other unforeseen event that may affect performance of the company. The performance of stocks would ultimately depend on various factors such as prevailing market conditions, global political scenario, exchange rate etc. Investors are requested to note that there are various factors (both local and international) that can have impact on the future performance and expectations of any company. Information given is available in public domain. There is no assurance or guarantee of any company being able to sustain its performance in future

• The company has capabilities across railway infrastructure from tracks to wagons.

• It was expected that the company would benefit from increased thrust on railway infrastructure by the new government.

• Uptick in demand for rolling stock* can enhance scope of opportunity for the company.

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

2011 2012 2013 2014

*Rolling stock originally referred to the vehicles that move on a railway.

Page 23: ICICI Prudential Growth Fund - Series 2 (Presentation)

The Product

Growth Fund - Series 2Growth Fund - Series 2A Close Ended Equity Fund

23

Page 24: ICICI Prudential Growth Fund - Series 2 (Presentation)

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About the Fund

# The number of stocks provided is to explain the investment philosophy and the actual number may go up or down depending on then prevailing market conditions at the time of investment.

* Dividends will be declared subject to availability of distributable surplus and approval from Trustees

• A 3.5 years close ended equity fund investing in 40-60 stocks#

• Only Dividend option

• Defined term helps caliberate entry/exit points better.

• Aims to provide long-term capital appreciation by:

• Identifying companies which are likely to see growth in earnings over the tenure of the scheme.

• Investing across market cap with a bias towards mid and small cap space.

• Declare commensurate dividends*.

Page 25: ICICI Prudential Growth Fund - Series 2 (Presentation)

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Why 3.5 years or 42 months?

• The fund will mature 1 year prior to the term of the elected government.

• The objective of the government would be to get re-elected for another term.

• To have a stronger recall in the minds of voters, the government could target large deliveries in the last 1-2 years of the elected term.

• Market valuations could start reflecting current and on-going govt. efforts in the 2nd half of its elected term.

Page 26: ICICI Prudential Growth Fund - Series 2 (Presentation)

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High Conviction Portfolio (40-60* stocks)

Data Integrity ScreensCompany Characteristics

• Strong competitive edge • Sustainable market position

Investable Universe(Companies with Potential Profit or EPS growth > Sensex Profit or EPS growth)

Valuation & Fundamental verificationValuation Parameter

• Increasing trend in Earnings • Improving B/S structureRec

urrin

g pr

oces

s

Daily Risk control

• Proven business model • Financial Strength • Business Durability

Investment Approach

* The number of stocks provided is to explain the investment philosophy and the actual number may go up or down depending on then prevailing market conditions at the time of investment.

Page 27: ICICI Prudential Growth Fund - Series 2 (Presentation)

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SCHEME FEATURES

Type of scheme A Close ended equity scheme

Tenure 1286 days

Investment Objective The investment objective of the Scheme is to provide capital appreciation by investing in a well-diversified portfolio of equity and equity related securities.

However, there can be no assurance that the investment objective of the Scheme will be realized.

Options Direct Plan – Dividend payout OptionRegular Plan – Dividend payout Option

Minimum Application Amount Rs 5,000 (plus in multiple of Rs.10)

Entry & Exit Load Not Applicable

Benchmark Index CNX Nifty Index

Fund Manager* Mr. Yogesh Bhatt and Mr. Vinay Sharma

* Mr. Ashwin Jain for investment in ADR/GDR/ Foreign securities

Page 28: ICICI Prudential Growth Fund - Series 2 (Presentation)

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Mutual Fund investments are subject to market risks, read all scheme related documents carefully.All figures and other data given in this document are as on 30th June 2014 unless stated otherwise. The same may or may not be relevant at a future date. The AMC takes no responsibility of updating any data/information in this material from time to time. The information shall not be altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or distributed, in part or in whole, to any other person or to the media or reproduced in any form, without prior written consent of ICICI Prudential Asset Management Company Limited.

Prospective investors are advised to consult their own legal, tax and financial advisors to determine possible tax, legal and other financial implication or consequence of subscribing to the units of ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund.

Disclaimer: : In the preparation of the material contained in this document, ICICI Prudential Asset Management Company Ltd. (the AMC) has used information that is publicly available, including information developed in-house. Some of the material used in the document may have been obtained from members/persons other than the AMC and/or its affiliates and which may have been made available to the AMC and/or to its affiliates. Information gathered and material used in this document is believed to be from reliable sources. The AMC however does not warrant the accuracy, reasonableness and / or completeness of any information. We have included statements / opinions / recommendations in this document, which contain words, or phrases such as “will”, “expect”, “should”, “believe” and similar expressions or variations of such expressions, that are “forward looking statements”. Actual results may differ materially from those suggested by the forward looking statements due to risk or uncertainties associated with our expectations with respect to, but not limited to, exposure to market risks, general economic and political conditions in India and other countries globally, which have an impact on our services and / or investments, the monetary and interest policies of India, inflation, deflation, unanticipated turbulence in interest rates, foreign exchange rates, equity prices or other rates or prices etc.

ICICI Prudential Asset Management Company Limited (including its affiliates), the Mutual Fund, The Trust and any of its officers, directors, personnel and employees, shall not liable for any loss, damage of any nature, including but not limited to direct, indirect, punitive, special, exemplary, consequential, as also any loss of profit in any way arising from the use of this material in any manner.

Further, the information contained herein should not be construed as forecast or promise. The recipient alone shall be fully responsible/are liable for any decision taken on this material.

DISCLAIMERS

Page 29: ICICI Prudential Growth Fund - Series 2 (Presentation)

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NOTE

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NOTE

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NOTE

Page 32: ICICI Prudential Growth Fund - Series 2 (Presentation)

For more information, please log on to www.icicipruamc.com