31 October 2015

2QFY16 Results Update | Sector: Financials

ICICI Bank

Alpesh Mehta (Alpesh.Mehta@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5415

Dhaval Gada (Dhaval.Gada@MotilalOswal.com); +91 22 3982 5505

BSE SENSEX S&P CNX CMP: INR277 TP: INR450 (+62%) Buy 26,657 8,066

Bloomberg ICICIBC IN

Equity Shares (m) 5,775.2

M.Cap. (INR b) / (USD b) 1599/24.6

52-Week Range (INR) 393 / 248 1, 6, 12 Rel. Per (%) 0/-15/-12

Avg Val.INR m 4339 Free float (%) 100.0

Financials & Valuation (INR b)

Y/E Mar 2016E 2017E 2018E

NII 216.9 252.3 296.3 OP 218.2 254.9 305.0 NP 126.5 147.3 176.5 NIM (%) 3.6 3.6 3.6 EPS (INR) 21.8 25.4 30.4 EPS Gr (%) 13.2 16.5 19.8 BV/Sh (INR)* 132 150 172 ABV/Sh INR* 123 142 164 RoE (%) 15.0 15.3 16.0 RoA (%) 1.8 1.8 1.9 Valuations AP/E (x) 9.2 7.4 5.7 AP/BV (x) 1.5 1.3 1.0 AP/ABV (x) 1.6 1.3 1.1 * BV adj for invt in subs, * Prices adj for sub value

In line; strong traction in retail business; NSL down 13bp QoQ; top pick ICICIBC reported 2QFY16 profit of INR30.3b (+12% YoY; in line). Uptick in NIM

(international NIM up 12bp QoQ to all-time high of 2%; domestic NIM, adj. for interest on IT refunds, stable QoQ), strong traction in retail business (loans +25% YoY, ~93% of incremental 2Q growth), retail fee growth of 15%+ (now accounts for 65% of overall fee income) and healthy average daily CASA ratio of 40%+ were the key highlights.

Net stress loans declined 13bp QoQ and net stressed addition was at a six-quarter low of INR14.1b (INR33.4b in 1QFY16). While retail asset quality remains benign (NNPA% 65bp), corporate stress loans (GNPA+RL) increased to all-time high of ~11%. Management continues to maintain guidance on fresh stress addition to be lower than INR135b in FY16 (~INR59.8b in 1HFY16). Restructuring under the 5/25 scheme was INR20b v/s INR10b in 1Q.

ICICIBC’s proposed 9% stake sale in ICICI Lombard led to significant value unlocking and capital release (~20bp addition to tier 1). We believe divestment in some of the strategic investments will help ICICIBC provide for some of the lumpy stress exposures on the balance sheet without a significant hit on earnings.

Valuation and view: Overall retail franchise, margins and asset quality performance remains better than expectation. While secured retail loan growth remains strong, outlook/risk appetite is improving for unsecured retail and SME loans. ICICIBC is well positioned to leverage the opportunities, with high core RoA, strong distribution network, capitalization (12.8% Tier I) and retail franchise. RoE will continue to improve and is expected to reach ~17% by FY18. While exposure to stressed sectors remains a concern, it has been stable over the last couple of years. Valuations are attractive at AP/ABV of 1.3x (FY17E). Maintain Buy with an SOTP-based target price of INR450.

Investors are advised to refer through disclosures made at the end of the Research Report. Motilal Oswal research is available on www.motilaloswal.com/Institutional-Equities, Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters, Factset and S&P Capital.

31 October 2015 2

ICICI Bank

Exhibit 1: Quarterly performance v/s our estimates and reasons for deviation (INR m) Y/E March 2QFY16A 2QFY16E Var. (%) Comments

Net Interest Income 52,515 51,596 2 NIM better than expectation % Change (YoY) 13 11

Other Income 30,074 33,972 -11 Fee income growth below expectation led by muted corporate fee growth

Net Income 82,588 85,567 -3 Operating Expenses 31,004 30,988 0 Strong control over cost Operating Profit 51,584 54,580 -5 Core PPP below than expectation % Change (YoY) 10 16 Other Provisions 9,422 12,000 -21 Credit costs better than expected

Profit before Tax 42,163 42,580 -1 Tax Provisions 11,862 12,135 -2 Net Profit 30,301 30,444 0 Lower prov. offset by lower than expected operating

performance % Change (YoY) 12 12

Source: MOSL, Company

International NIMs and average daily CASA ratio at all time high Strong improvement in liability and ALM profile (both in domestic and

International business) is helping ICICIBC to maintain NIMs despite falling rate environment (base rate down 30bp in April 2015)

Reported NIM for the quarter came in at 3.52% (-2bp QoQ). Adjusted for interest on income tax refund, domestic margins were flat QoQ (v/s reported decline of 6bp QoQ). Strong improvement in ALM profile in international business, fall in cost of borrowings and moderate growth is leading to all time high NIM of 2% (+12bp QoQ).

CASA growth remains moderate at +13% YoY (+7% QoQ). CA deposits grew 10% YoY (+16% QoQ) – impact of one-off large float. SA deposit growth was healthy at 14% YoY (3% QoQ). CASA ratio improved 100bp QoQ to 45.1%; Average daily CASA ratio remained largely stable QoQ at 41% - close to all-time highs. Management has guided for average CASA balance of 38-40% for FY16.

Strong retail performance; corporate growth remains subdued Overall loan growth was healthy at 13% YoY (+2% QoQ). Domestic loans grew

17% YoY (+4% QoQ) whereas, International loans grew 3% YoY (flat QoQ) – in dollar terms international loans de-grew ~3.5% YoY. Proportion of international loan in overall loans now stands at 23% v/s 26% in 2QFY15 (24% in 1QFY16).

NIM adjusted for interest on income tax refund improved ~5bp QoQ

~93% of incremental loan growth driven by retail

segment (+5% QoQ and +25% YoY)

31 October 2015 3

ICICI Bank

Exhibit 2: Share of Retail segment in incremental loan growth (%) – accounted for ~71% of incremental loan growth in last two years

Source: MOSL, Company

Exhibit 3: Share of international loans in overall loans – lowest since 2009 (%)

Source: MOSL, Company

Domestic corporate loan portfolio grew just 1% QoQ (+7% YoY). In domestic

portfolio, incremental loan growth was driven by retail segment (+5% QoQ and +25% YoY). Ex-CV segment retail loans grew 27% YoY (+5% QoQ).

Within retail loans, home loans (+6% QoQ and +25% YoY), auto loans (ex. CV) (+5% QoQ, +23% YoY), business banking (+9% QoQ, +21% YoY) and personal loans (+10% QoQ and +55% YoY) were the key drivers of growth. CV loans grew by +6% YoY (+7% QoQ) v/s -6% YoY in 1QFY16.

Muted fee income growth; Share of retail fees increasing Fee income growth was muted at 6% YoY (+6% QoQ) led by weak momentum in

the corporate loan book. Retail fees now account for 65% of overall fee income (v/s 63% in 1Q and ~52% in FY15).

During the quarter, bank recognized income of INR1.9b (v/s INR3.5b in 1QFY16) on account of foreign exchange gains relating to overseas operations.

Trading gains came in at INR2.2b v/s INR2.1b in 1QFY16. Strong opex control continues; Cost to core income ratio at 41% Despite increasing share of retail business, strong opex control continues led to

employee expenses growth of 12% YoY (-4% QoQ). Other operating expenses increased 17% YoY (+5% QoQ) – ICICIBC has added just 4 branches in 1HFY16 (v/s 62 branch addition in 1HFY15). Overall cost to core income ratio improved to 41% v/s 42.5% in 1QFY16 and 40% in 2QFY15.

-36

77

31

214

10 40

48

161

62

47 69

90

53 93

1QFY

13

2QFY

13

3QFY

13

4QFY

13

1QFY

14

2QFY

14

3QFY

14

4QFY

14

1QFY

15

2QFY

15

3QFY

15

4QFY

15

1QFY

16

2QFY

16

24

26

26

25

26 27

26

25

26

25

24 26

25

29

28

27

28

26

26

25 27

27

28

27

26

26

26

24

24

23

1QFY

09

2QFY

09

3QFY

09

4QFY

09

1QFY

10

2QFY

10

3QFY

10

4QFY

10

1QFY

11

2QFY

11

3QFY

11

4QFY

11

1QFY

12

2QFY

12

3QFY

12

4QFY

12

1QFY

13

2QFY

13

3QFY

13

4QFY

13

1QFY

14

2QFY

14

3QFY

14

4QFY

14

1QFY

15

2QFY

15

3QFY

15

4QFY

15

1QFY

16

2QFY

16

Share of international loans (%)

Retail loans now account for 44% of overall loans –

highest level since 2010

Retail fees now account for 65% of overall fees (v/s 63%

in 1Q and ~52% in FY15)

Added just 4 branches in 1HFY16 v/s 62 additions in

1HFY15

31 October 2015 4

ICICI Bank

Exhibit 4: Management continues to guide for 300-400 branch additions in FY16 (i.e. 296-396 additions in 2HFY16)

Source: MOSL, Company

Exhibit 5: HDFCB’s branch network is now larger than ICICIBC (nos.)

Source: MOSL, Company

Net stress additions decline; 5/25 restructuring within expectation Net stressed addition was at a six-quarter low of INR14.1b v/s INR33.4b in

1QFY16. Slippages for the quarter were at INR22.4b (2.5% of loans annualized v/s 1.9% in 1QFY16). However, relapse from restructured loans increased to INR9.3b v/s INR2.9b in 1QFY16.

Recoveries and upgrades were healthy at INR7.1b v/s INR5.4b in 1Q and bank wrote-off/sold INR8.1b (INR10.8b in 1QFY16).

GNPA in absolute terms were increased 5% QoQ; GNPA ratio increased 9bp QoQ to 3.77%. PCR decreased QoQ to 57% - Lowest in 23 last quarters (a concern although manageable).

In 2QFY16, bank restructured two accounts under the 5/25 scheme amounting to INR20b (v/s INR10b in 1QFY16).

Fresh restructuring during 2Q was ~INR1b v/s INR19.6b a quarter ago. Outstanding standard restructured loan portfolio (post provisions) decreased to INR118.6b v/s INR126b in 1Q.

Management mentioned that asset quality in corporate segment remains challenging; however, maintain that FY16 stress additions would be lower than FY15. During the quarter, ICICIBC did not sell any assets to ARC.

Performance of subsidiaries; Consolidated RoE at 15.3% ICICI UK’s total assets increased 10% QoQ and YoY to USD4.6b and PAT came in

at USD0.6m v/s USD5.1m in 2QFY15. CAR stood at 16.3%. ICICI Canada’s total assets were at CAD6.5b (+10% QoQ and +18% YoY). PAT

came in at CAD6.6m v/s CAD7.8m in 1QFY16. CAR was at 25.2%. ICICI Life Insurance reported PAT of INR4.2b (+5% QoQ and +4% YoY). APE for

2QFY16 increased to INR13.3b (+11% YoY) and NBAP margin stood at 13.8%, stable QoQ (IEV method). AUM grew by 9% YoY (flat QoQ) to INR991b.

For 2QFY16, general Insurance business reported profit of INR1.4b v/s INR1.2b in 1QFY16 (INR1.6b in 2QFY15).

Consolidated PAT for 2QFY16 grew 12% YoY to INR34.2b and consolidated RoE came in at 15.3% as compared to 15% in 1QFY16 and 15.1% in 2QFY15.

4 7 12

200

3 17

123

205 250

157

81

165

10 52 35

200

2 2

1QFY

12

2QFY

12

3QFY

12

4QFY

12

1QFY

13

2QFY

13

3QFY

13

4QFY

13

1QFY

14

2QFY

14

3QFY

14

4QFY

14

1QFY

15

2QFY

15

3QFY

15

4QFY

15

1QFY

16

2QFY

16

Branch additions during the quarter

1,100

1,950

2,800

3,650

4,500

1QFY

12

2QFY

12

3QFY

12

4QFY

12

1QFY

13

2QFY

13

3QFY

13

4QFY

13

1QFY

14

2QFY

14

3QFY

14

4QFY

14

1QFY

15

2QFY

15

3QFY

15

4QFY

15

1QFY

16

2QFY

16

ICICIBC HDFCB

Bank restructured two accounts under the 5/25

scheme amounting to INR20b (v/s INR10b in 1Q)

ICICI Pru Life insurance NBP margins stood at 13.8%,

stable QoQ

31 October 2015 5

ICICI Bank

Significant value unlocking via proposed 9% stake sale in ICICI Lombard Bank has sold 9% stake in the general Insurance business to its JV partner Fairfax

Financial Holding Ltd. Transaction values the company at INR172.3b (5.4x NW and 32x PAT FY15). Transaction will add ~20bp addition to tier 1 capital

In our SOTP, we had valued the company at INR46b (1x FY17 NW); with this stake, value for remaining 64% stake of ICICIBC (at the deal valuation and post holdco of 20%) becomes INR88.2b (INR15.2/share). Earlier for 73% stake value per share in SOTP (post holdco discount of 20%) was INR4.6/share

We expect the bank to use this one-off gain (INR14.2b pre-tax, INR2.4/share) in creating contingency provisions and strengthen the balance sheet further against potential large corporate stress.

Conference call highlights Guidance for FY16 (a) Domestic credit growth: 18-20%, (b) Retail growth 25%, (c) Corporate growth double digit, (d) International growth 8-10%, (e) Average CASA balance 38-40%, (f) Stable NIM (overseas NIM 1.8-1.9%), (g) Double digit fee income growth led by retail fees, (h) Cost to Income ratio similar to FY15, (i) Gross stress addition (slippages + fresh restructuring) to be lower than FY15, (j) Slippages from restructured loans should be lower than FY15 (k) 300-400 branch addition per year for FY16-17 P&L Related Reduced base rate by 35bp in Oct-15. Expect some pressure on margins in 3Q Dividend received of INR3.61b during the quarter Retail fees accounted for 65% of overall fees (15% YoY) Added 4970 employees during 1H primarily on account of front line addition Higher growth in other operating expenses was led by increase in ad expenses,

higher proportion of retail business and network expansion Metro branch addition expected in 2HFY16 ICICI General Insurance profitability impacted by higher operating expenses due

to higher share of retail business Gains from stake sale (9%) in ICICI Lombard general insurance would be ~INR15b Balance Sheet Related SME growth to be driven by collateral based granular loans Overseas branches loans de-grew 3.5% YoY in USD terms Strong growth in commercial business loans driven by pickup in sales activity 5.2% investment in ICICI Bank UK and Canada Corporate loan growth driven by working capital lending, demand from PSU

companies and better rated companies INR20b worth of loans refinanced during the quarter (3-4 accounts) Competition on off-balance sheet transactions remains high. Improving liability

profile is helping to reduce cost of funds and increase on balance sheet exposure

31 October 2015 6

ICICI Bank

Asset Quality During the quarter there was no sale to ARC Asset quality in corporate segment remains challenging INR20b loans rescheduled 4-5 accounts under 5:25 scheme (standard accounts) Two accounts slipped from restructured loans; EPC contractors, power are some

of the segments where bank has been seeing slippages Increase in provisioning levels in UK subsidiary on loans given to some of the

stressed Indian corporate Fresh restructuring during the quarter was ~ INR1b Capital Capital ratios do not factor in positive benefit from lower risk weights on home

loans (15bp impact on tier 1 ratio) Tier 1 ratio including profits was 12.84% (ex. profits 12.09%) No need to raise capital before Mar-18 Other highlights 61% of SA customer transactions through digital channels; < 10% transactions

through branches Loan origination from branches - ~20% of car loans, ~30% of mortgages and

higher proportion in case of rural banking Valuation and view Despite the challenging macro environment Net stress loans decline of 13bp

QoQ is a positive surprise. Retail asset quality (NNPA of 65bp) is holding on well, however, corporate remains under pressure (due to some chunky exposure) – stress loans (GNPA+RL) at 11%.

While legacy corporate exposure remains a concern, over the last three years incremental book is built on secured retail loans and high quality corporate loans (working capital and PSU related lending) which provides comfort. In our view, ICICIBC may use one off gains (like stake sale in strategic investments) to provide for legacy exposure. Further, RBI regulations such as SDR, 5:25 refinancing will provide some relief.

Structural improvement in liability and ALM profile over the last few years has helped ICICIBC to gradually improve NIMs to 3.5%+, despite increasing competition within retail business, low risk corporate loans and falling interest rate scenario. Continued mix shift will help to mitigate pressure of domestic margins to overall margins. We expect NIMs to be largely flat from hereon.

Near term business growth will be driven by retail business and the share of high profit making products (mainly by cross sell) like credit cards, personal loans and business banking is likely to go up. Within corporate loans, working capital and transaction banking related loans are likely to be the key drivers. Lower capex related demand and increasing pricing pressure on matured project loan (refinancing by competition at lower rate) remains a drag on corporate loan growth and profitability.

Remains our top pick in the sector: Factors driving are positive view a) Significant improvement in granularity of the book (~50% of book is retail and SME) b) Improvement in macros to reduce risk on the balance sheet on

Maintain Buy with SOTP based TP of INR450

31 October 2015 7

ICICI Bank

corporate portfolio c) sharp improvement in liability profile helping to build low risk business without much impact on core earnings d) value unlocking in subsidiaries e) healthy CET1 of 12.8%+ and f) continued improvement in core ROE (+100bp by 16%) by FY18.

Key catalyst (a) Improvement in growth environment and clear picture on interest rate and macro environment (b) Resolution of issues in key infra sectors (c) value unlocking from strategic businesses. Maintain Buy with SOTP based TP of INR450. We value core banking business based on residual income model. Our key assumptions are a) Cost of equity at 14% (Risk free rate of 7.5%, beta 1.3 and risk premium of 5%) b) average growth rate of 14.5% over FY15-35E and c) terminal growth of 5%.

Exhibit 6: We largely maintain our estimates

INR b Old Est. Revised Est. Chg (%)

FY16 FY17 FY18 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY16 FY17 FY18 Net Interest Income 210.7 254.9 302.6 216.9 252.3 296.3 2.9 -1.0 -2.1 Other Income 138.2 158.0 183.8 131.9 153.7 182.4 -4.6 -2.7 -0.8 Total Income 349.0 412.9 486.5 348.8 406.0 478.7 0.0 -1.7 -1.6 Operating Expenses 130.8 153.3 179.6 130.7 151.1 173.7 -0.1 -1.4 -3.3 Operating Profits 218.2 259.7 306.9 218.2 254.9 305.0 0.0 -1.8 -0.6 Provisions 43.6 47.5 57.2 42.4 45.9 54.7 -2.7 -3.4 -4.4 PBT 174.6 212.1 249.7 175.7 209.0 250.3 0.7 -1.5 0.3 Tax 49.7 62.6 73.7 49.2 61.7 73.8 -1.1 -1.5 0.3 PAT 124.8 149.6 176.0 126.5 147.3 176.5 1.4 -1.5 0.3 Loans 4,604 5,534 6,656 4,504 5,365 6,385 -2.2 -3.1 -4.1 Deposits 4,432 5,386 6,548 4,340 5,271 6,385 -2.1 -2.1 -2.5 Margins (%) 3.45 3.53 3.52 3.58 3.58 3.61 Credit Cost (%) 0.90 0.80 0.80 0.90 0.80 0.80 Core RoA (%) 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 Core RoE (%) 14.8 15.7 16.2 15.0 15.3 16.0

Source: MOSL, Company

31 October 2015 8

ICICI Bank

Exhibit 7: ICICI Bank: SOTP FY17E

Stake (%) Total Value

INR b Total Value

USD b Value Per Share INR

% of Total Value Rationale

ICICI Bank 2,088 32.1 360 80.1 Based on residual income model (1yr fwd.); Implied 2.4x FY17E Adj. BV; Core ROA of 1.6% and Core ROE of 15.3%

ICICI Pru Life Insurance 74 276 4.2 48 10.6 Appraisal Value ICICI Bank Canada 100 57 0.9 10 2.2 1x FY17E BV ICICI Bank UK 100 34 0.5 6 1.3 1x FY17E BV ICICI Home Finance 100 33 0.5 6 1.3 2x FY17E BV ICICI Pru AMC 51 47 0.7 8 1.8 Valued at 4% of AUM exp in FY17 ICICI Securities 100 53 0.8 9 2.0 15x FY17E PAT ICICI Lombard Gen. Ins 74 117 1.8 20 4.5 Based on last deal value ICICI Ventures 100 10 0.2 2 0.4 10% FY17E AUMs ICICI Sec. PD 100 14 0.2 2 0.5 1x FY17 Networth Total Value of Ventures 641 9.9 111 24.7 Less: 20% holding Discount 128 2.0 22 5 Value of Key Ventures 513 7.9 90 19.9

Target Price Post 20% Holding Co. Disc. 2,601 40.0 450 100 Current Value 1,600 24.6 277 Upside - % 62.6 62.6 62.4 Target Price w/o 20% Holding Co. Disc. 2,729 42.0 472 CMP (INR) 1,600 24.6 277 Upside - % 70.6 70.6 70.4

Source: MOSL, Company

Exhibit 8: DuPont Analysis: Core PPP to remain superior; loan growth key for healthy earnings growth

Y/E March FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17E FY18E Net Interest Income 2.15 2.19 2.34 2.40 2.70 2.91 3.07 3.13 3.15 3.18 Core Fee Income 1.67 1.52 1.67 1.50 1.35 1.37 1.34 1.32 1.31 1.33

Fee to core Income 43.8 41.0 41.6 38.5 33.2 32.0 30.3 29.6 29.4 29.5 Core Income 3.82 3.71 4.01 3.90 4.05 4.28 4.40 4.45 4.47 4.51 Operating Expenses 1.81 1.58 1.72 1.75 1.76 1.82 1.85 1.89 1.89 1.87

Cost to Core Income 47.3 42.6 42.9 45.0 43.4 42.5 42.1 42.4 42.3 41.4 Employee cost 0.51 0.52 0.73 0.79 0.76 0.75 0.77 0.74 0.73 0.73

Employee to total exp (%) 28.0 32.9 42.6 44.8 43.2 40.9 41.3 39.1 38.9 38.9 Others 1.30 1.06 0.99 0.97 1.00 1.08 1.09 1.15 1.15 1.14 Core operating Profits 2.01 2.13 2.29 2.14 2.29 2.46 2.55 2.56 2.58 2.64 Trading and others 0.28 0.49 0.06 0.18 0.28 0.47 0.63 0.59 0.61 0.63 Operating Profits 2.29 2.62 2.35 2.32 2.57 2.93 3.18 3.15 3.19 3.27 Provisions 0.98 1.18 0.59 0.35 0.35 0.46 0.63 0.61 0.57 0.59

NPA 0.96 1.17 0.51 0.22 0.27 0.40 0.51 0.54 0.49 0.50 Others 0.01 0.01 0.08 0.13 0.08 0.07 0.12 0.07 0.09 0.09

PBT 1.31 1.44 1.76 1.97 2.22 2.47 2.55 2.54 2.61 2.69 Tax 0.35 0.36 0.42 0.52 0.60 0.73 0.75 0.71 0.77 0.79

Tax Rate 26.6 24.7 23.8 26.6 26.9 29.8 29.4 28.0 29.5 29.5 RoA 0.96 1.08 1.34 1.44 1.62 1.73 1.80 1.83 1.84 1.89 Less: Dividend from Subs 0.09 0.10 0.11 0.16 0.18 0.23 0.25 0.27 0.28 0.29 Core RoA (ex-income from subs) 0.88 0.98 1.23 1.28 1.45 1.51 1.55 1.56 1.56 1.61 Core Leverage 10.3 9.7 9.4 10.0 10.2 10.1 9.8 9.6 9.8 10.0 RoE 9.1 9.6 11.5 12.8 14.8 15.2 15.2 15.0 15.3 16.0

Source: MOSL, Company

31 October 2015 9

ICICI Bank

Story in charts

Exhibit 9: Adj. for interest on IT refund in 1Q, Domestic NIM flat QoQ (%)

Source: MOSL, Company

Exhibit 10: Avg. daily CASA ratio close to life time high levels (%)

Source: MOSL, Company

Exhibit 11: Fee income growth remains muted impacted by weak corporate fee growth

Source: MOSL, Company

Exhibit 12: Core operating profit growth moderates to 8% YoY – 15 quarter low

Source: MOSL, Company

Exhibit 13: Domestic loan gr. at 17% YoY; corporate loan growth remains subdued (+7% YoY)

Source: MOSL, Company

Exhibit 14: Retail continues to drive growth (loan mix %)

Source: MOSL, Company

2.6 2.6 2.7 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.1 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.5 3.6 3.5 3.5

2.9

2.9

3.0 3.

3

3.3 3.4

3.5 3.7

3.6

3.7

3.7

3.7

3.8

3.8

3.9 4.0

3.9

3.8

1.0 1.1 1.

4 1.5

1.6

1.2

1.3

1.3 1.

6 1.8

1.7

1.7

1.6

1.6

1.7

1.7 1.9 2.0

1QFY

12

2QFY

12

3QFY

12

4QFY

12

1QFY

13

2QFY

13

3QFY

13

4QFY

13

1QFY

14

2QFY

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14

4QFY

14

1QFY

15

2QFY

15

3QFY

15

4QFY

15

1QFY

16

2QFY

16

Blended Domestic International

40.0

38.3

39

.0

39.0

39

.1

37.5

37.4

38.1

39.0

40.3

39

.1

39.1

39.5

39.5

39.3

39.9

41.1

40.7

1QFY

12

1HFY

12

9MFY

12

FY12

1QFY

13

1HFY

13

9MFY

13

FY13

1QFY

14

1HFY

14

9MFY

14

FY14

1QFY

15

1HFY

15

9MFY

15

FY15

1QFY

16

1HFY

16

15.8

17.0

17.0

17.3

16.5

17.1

17.7

17.8

17.9

19.9

20.0

19.7

19.4

21.0

21.1

21.4

21.1

22.4

1.5 1.6

1.5

1.5

1.3

1.3

1.4

1.3

1.3 1.

4

1.4

1.4

1.3 1.

4

1.4

1.4

1.3

1.4

1QFY

12

2QFY

12

3QFY

12

4QFY

12

1QFY

13

2QFY

13

3QFY

13

4QFY

13

1QFY

14

2QFY

14

3QFY

14

4QFY

14

1QFY

15

2QFY

15

3QFY

15

4QFY

15

1QFY

16

2QFY

16

Fee Inc. (INR b) % to Avg. Assets

22 23 25 26 27 29 30 32 31 37 36 35 36 41 41 41 42 44

12.9

4.0 12

.5

6.4

25.2

23.6

20.5

21.4

15.0

30.0

20.8

8.8 15

.4

9.3 11

.6

19.1

15.4

8.0

1QFY

12

2QFY

12

3QFY

12

4QFY

12

1QFY

13

2QFY

13

3QFY

13

4QFY

13

1QFY

14

2QFY

14

3QFY

14

4QFY

14

1QFY

15

2QFY

15

3QFY

15

4QFY

15

1QFY

16

2QFY

16

Core Op. Profit (INR b) YoY Gr (%)

2,20

7

2,34

0

2,46

2

2,53

7

2,68

4

2,75

1

2,86

8

2,90

2

3,01

4

3,17

8

3,32

6

3,38

7

3,47

1

3,61

8

3,75

3

3,87

5

3,99

7

4,09

7

20

20

19

17

22

18

16

14

12 16

16

17

15

14

13 14

15

13

1QFY

12

1HFY

12

9MFY

12

FY12

1QFY

13

1HFY

13

9MFY

13

FY13

1QFY

14

1HFY

14

9MFY

14

FY14

1QFY

15

1HFY

15

9MFY

15

FY15

1QFY

16

1HFY

16

Loans (INR b) YoY Gr. (%)

25 29 28 27 28 26 26 25 27 27 28 27 26 26 26 24 24 23 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3

35 33 32 37 33 34 33 36 34 34 35 37 37 37 38 40 40 41 5 5 5

6 6 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 5 4 4 4 4 9 8 7

24 24 26 29 32 34 34 32 32 33 31 30 30 30 29 29 29 28

1QFY

12

1HFY

12

9MFY

12

FY12

1QFY

13

1HFY

13

9MFY

13

FY13

1QFY

14

1HFY

14

9MFY

14

FY14

1QFY

15

1HFY

15

9MFY

15

FY15

1QFY

16

1HFY

16

International Unsecured Ret. Secured Ret. SME Agri Corp. & Othrs

31 October 2015 10

ICICI Bank

Story in charts

Exhibit 15: Credit costs ticks marginally lower QoQ; FY16 guidance at 90 – 95bp (provisioning %)

Source: MOSL, Company

Exhibit 16: Abs. GNPA increased 5% QoQ, PCR trends lower to 56% – 23 quarter low

Source: MOSL, Company

Exhibit 17: Net OSRL decreased by INR7.4b QoQ, led by INR9.3b relapse from restructured book; fresh restructuring was ~INR1b

Source: MOSL, Company

Exhibit 18: Profitability at subsidiaries

Source: MOSL, Company

Exhibit 19: DuPont Quarterly: Core profitability trends higher led by improvement in core revenues

3QFY13 4QFY13 1QFY14 2QFY14 3QFY14 4QFY14 1QFY15 2QFY15 3QFY15 4QFY15 1QFY16 2QFY16 Net Interest Income 2.70 2.86 2.82 2.91 2.99 2.98 3.04 3.11 3.13 3.22 3.18 3.24 Fee income 1.36 1.33 1.32 1.43 1.40 1.35 1.31 1.40 1.37 1.35 1.31 1.38 Fee inc to Core income 33.6 31.8 31.9 33.0 31.9 31.2 30.1 31.1 30.5 29.6 29.2 29.9 Core Income 4.06 4.19 4.14 4.34 4.40 4.33 4.35 4.51 4.51 4.57 4.49 4.61 Operating Expenses 1.74 1.81 1.84 1.67 1.84 1.97 1.91 1.80 1.87 1.97 1.91 1.91 Cost to core Income 42.9 43.2 44.4 38.5 41.9 45.5 43.9 39.9 41.4 43.1 42.5 41.4

Employee 0.72 0.75 0.80 0.63 0.70 0.86 0.84 0.72 0.73 0.82 0.79 0.75 Others 1.02 1.06 1.03 1.04 1.14 1.11 1.07 1.07 1.14 1.15 1.12 1.16

Core Operating profits 2.32 2.38 2.30 2.67 2.56 2.36 2.44 2.71 2.64 2.60 2.58 2.70 Trading and others 0.34 0.33 0.51 0.12 0.57 0.69 0.62 0.42 0.64 0.86 0.55 0.48 Operating Profits 2.66 2.71 2.81 2.80 3.12 3.05 3.05 3.13 3.28 3.46 3.13 3.18 Provisions 0.28 0.35 0.44 0.45 0.49 0.49 0.49 0.57 0.64 0.85 0.59 0.58 PBT 2.38 2.36 2.37 2.35 2.63 2.56 2.56 2.57 2.64 2.61 2.54 2.60 Tax 0.64 0.63 0.70 0.66 0.85 0.74 0.77 0.76 0.76 0.76 0.69 0.73 RoA 1.73 1.73 1.68 1.69 1.78 1.82 1.80 1.81 1.88 1.85 1.85 1.87

Source: MOSL, Company

0.8

0.6 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.7

0.5 0.6

0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.8 1.0

1.1

1.4

1.0 0.9

1QFY

12

2QFY

12

3QFY

12

4QFY

12

1QFY

13

2QFY

13

3QFY

13

4QFY

13

1QFY

14

2QFY

14

3QFY

14

4QFY

14

1QFY

15

2QFY

15

3QFY

15

4QFY

15

1QFY

16

2QFY

16

3.9

3.6

3.3

3.1

3.1

3.1

2.9

2.7

2.8

2.7

2.7

2.6

2.7

2.7 3.0 3.3

3.3

3.4

0.9

0.8

0.7

0.6

0.6

0.7

0.6

0.6

0.7

0.7

0.8

0.8

0.9

1.0

1.1

1.4

1.4

1.5

76.6

77

.9

78.8

80.2

80.4

78.7

77.7

76.1

75.0

73.1

69.5

68

.0

67.7

65.0

62.7

57.4

57

.1

56.3

1QFY

12

1HFY

12

9MFY

12

FY12

1QFY

13

1HFY

13

9MFY

13

FY13

1QFY

14

1HFY

14

9MFY

14

FY14

1QFY

15

1HFY

15

9MFY

15

FY15

1QFY

16

1HFY

16

GNPA (%) NNPA (%) PCR (%)

19.7

25.0

30.7

45.5

41.7

44.5

45.8

53.2

59.2

68.3

86.0

105.

6

112.

7

110.

2

120.

5

110.

2

126.

0

118.

7 0.9 1.1

1.2 1.

8

1.6

1.6

1.6 1.8 2.

0

2.1 2.

6 3.1 3.2

3.0 3.

2

2.8 3.2

2.9

1QFY

12

1HFY

12

9MFY

12

FY12

1QFY

13

1HFY

13

9MFY

13

FY13

1QFY

14

1HFY

14

9MFY

14

FY14

1QFY

15

1HFY

15

9MFY

15

FY15

1QFY

16

1HFY

16

Restructured loans (INR b) % of loans

31 October 2015 11

ICICI Bank

Exhibit 20: Quarterly Snapshot FY14 FY15 FY16 Variation (%) INR m 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q QoQ YoY Profit and Loss Net Interest Income 38,205 40,435 42,551 43,565 44,919 46,566 48,117 50,794 51,151 52,515 3 13 Other Income 24,843 21,665 28,010 29,761 28,498 27,384 30,917 34,963 29,899 30,074 1 10 Trading profits 4,030 -790 4,470 2,450 3,880 1,370 4,430 7,260 2,070 2,220 7 62 Fee Income 17,930 19,940 19,970 19,740 19,360 21,030 21,100 21,370 21,100 22,350 6 6 Miscellaneous Income 2,883 2,515 3,570 7,571 5,258 4,984 5,387 6,333 6,729 5,504 -18 10 Total Income 63,048 62,100 70,561 73,326 73,417 73,950 79,033 85,757 81,050 82,588 2 12 Operating Expenses 24,906 23,221 26,170 28,791 28,250 26,971 28,663 31,074 30,672 31,004 1 15 Employee 10,894 8,716 9,969 12,623 12,469 10,864 11,178 12,988 12,673 12,126 -4 12 Others 14,012 14,506 16,202 16,169 15,781 16,107 17,485 18,086 17,999 18,878 5 17 Operating Profits 38,142 38,879 44,390 44,535 45,167 46,979 50,370 54,683 50,378 51,584 2 10 Provisions 5,932 6,248 6,946 7,138 7,261 8,495 9,797 13,447 9,554 9,422 -1 11 PBT 32,210 32,631 37,444 37,397 37,906 38,484 40,573 41,236 40,824 42,163 3 10 Taxes 9,468 9,110 12,122 10,877 11,353 11,394 11,683 12,016 11,063 11,862 7 4 PAT 22,742 23,521 25,322 26,520 26,553 27,090 28,890 29,220 29,762 30,301 2 12 Asset Quality GNPA 100,570 100,780 104,480 105,540 110,010 116,950 132,310 152,420 152,860 160,060 5 37 NNPA 24,720 27,070 31,210 33,010 34,740 39,970 48,310 63,250 64,020 68,280 7 71 GNPA (%) 2.8 2.7 2.7 2.6 2.7 2.7 3.0 3.3 3.3 3.4 10 62 NNPA (%) 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.4 1.4 1.5 7 51 PCR (Calculated, %) 75 73 70 69 68 66 63 59 58 57 -78 -848 GNPA - Retail 54,110 49,080 44,430 41,170 37,890 35,910 34,940 33,780 36,330 35,390 -3 -1 NNPA - Retail 7,760 7,620 7,800 8,170 8,460 8,900 9,330 9,860 11,790 11,760 0 32 Prov. for NPA in qtr 5,932 6,248 6,946 7,138 7,261 8,495 9,797 13,447 9,554 9,422 -1 11 Credit Cost 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.8 1.0 1.1 1.4 1.0 0.9 -4 -3 Restructured loans 59,150 68,260 86,020 105,580 112,650 110,200 120,520 110,170 126,040 118,680 -6 8 % of Loans 2.0 2.1 2.6 3.1 3.2 3.0 3.2 2.8 3.2 2.9 -26 -15 Ratios (%) Fees to Total Income 28.4 32.1 28.3 26.9 26.4 28.4 26.7 24.9 26.0 27.1 Cost to Core Income 42.2 36.9 39.6 40.6 40.6 37.2 38.4 39.6 38.8 38.6 Tax Rate 29.4 27.9 32.4 29.1 30.0 29.6 28.8 29.1 27.1 28.1 CASA 43.2 43.3 43.3 42.9 43.0 43.7 44.0 45.5 44.1 45.1 Dom. Loan/Deposit (Rep) 80.7 80.2 80.5 78.8 80.5 79.5 81.2 83.8 85.1 84.3 Loan / Deposit 103.5 102.8 104.9 102.0 103.4 102.8 105.6 107.2 108.7 106.5 RoA (cal) 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.9 1.9 1.8 1.9 RoE (Cal) 13.3 13.1 13.8 14.4 14.2 14.0 14.4 14.4 14.5 14.3 Margins - Cal (%) Yield on loans 9.7 10.0 10.1 9.9 9.8 10.0 9.8 9.8 9.5 9.6 3 -46 Yield On Investments 6.7 6.6 6.9 6.7 6.6 7.2 7.4 6.2 6.9 7.0 10 -15 Yield on Funds 8.6 8.7 9.0 8.7 9.0 9.2 9.0 9.0 9.1 9.3 11 4 Cost of funds 6.0 6.0 6.2 6.0 6.0 6.1 6.0 5.9 5.8 5.9 8 -23 Margins 3.1 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.4 3.5 3.5 3.6 3.7 3.7 6 18 Margins - Reported 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.5 3.6 3.5 3.5 -2 10 Franchise ATM 10,902 11,098 11,215 11,315 11,447 11,739 12,091 12,451 12,811 12,964 1 10 Branches 3,350 3,507 3,588 3,753 3,763 3,815 3,850 4,050 4,052 4,054 0 6

Source: MOSL, Company

31 October 2015 12

ICICI Bank

Exhibit 21: Quarterly Snapshot continues FY14 FY15 FY16 Variation (%) INR b 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q QoQ YoY Balance Sheet Loans 3,014 3,178 3,326 3,387 3,471 3,618 3,753 3,875 3,997 4,097 2 13 Investments 1,879 1,837 1,854 1,967 1,680 1,777 1,907 1,748 1,582 1,638 3 -8 Customer Assets 3,583 3,708 3,853 4,026 3,993 4,164 4,313 4,518 4,573 4,645 2 12 Deposits 2,912 3,090 3,170 3,319 3,358 3,521 3,553 3,616 3,679 3,846 5 9 Borrowings 1,556 1,450 1,506 1,544 1,456 1,500 1,526 1,721 1,628 1,558 -4 4 Total Assets 5,486 5,635 5,741 5,946 5,884 6,111 6,171 6,461 6,413 6,571 2 8 Deposits Break Up CASA Deposits 1,258 1,339 1,372 1,424 1,444 1,537 1,564 1,644 1,623 1,735 7 13 % of total Deposits 43 43 43 43 43 44 44 45 44 45 Savings 889 935 957 991 1,027 1,056 1,105 1,149 1,168 1,207 3 14 % of total Deposits 31 30 30 30 31 30 31 32 32 31 Current 370 404 414 432 417 481 459 495 455 528 16 10 % of total Deposits 13 13 13 13 12 14 13 14 12 14 Term Deposits 1,654 1,751 1,798 1,895 1,914 1,983 1,989 1,972 2,056 2,111 3 6 % of total Deposits 57 57 57 57 57 56 56 55 56 55 Loan Break Up SME Loans 139 146 143 149 153 163 165 171 172 176 2 8 Corporate Loans 979 1,035 1,047 1,020 1,057 1,084 1,089 1,119 1,149 1,164 1 7 Retail Loans 1,085 1,151 1,222 1,320 1,372 1,441 1,535 1,644 1,709 1,802 5 25 of which Housing 596 631 666 706 742 793 844 891 938 993 6 25 Personal Loans 18 24 31 40 47 53 64 69 75 83 10 55 Credit Cards 30 31 32 33 36 36 38 39 41 45 10 25 Others 441 465 494 541 547 559 588 644 655 681 4 22 International Loans 811 845 915 898 888 930 965 942 967 955 -1 3 Loan Mix Agriculture SME Loans 4.6 4.6 4.3 4.4 4.4 4.5 4.4 4.4 4.3 4.3 Corporate Loans 32.5 32.6 31.5 30.1 30.5 30.0 29.0 28.9 28.7 28.4 Retails 36.0 36.2 36.7 39.0 39.5 39.8 40.9 42.4 42.8 44.0 International Loans 26.9 26.6 27.5 26.5 25.6 25.7 25.7 24.3 24.2 23.3 Subsidiaries PAT (INR m) I Sec 130 180 350 250 610 680 760 890 610 600 -2 -12 I Sec PD 1,200 -760 480 400 460 490 750 470 330 860 161 76 I Venture 190 1 0 139 110 0 1 -100 -30 -30 NM NM Pru AMC 370 440 470 550 610 620 670 570 800 840 5 35 ICICI Home Finance 576 604 517 534 500 481 498 502 500 489 -2 2 ICIC Life Insurance 3,640 3,870 4,280 3,880 3,820 3,990 4,620 3,910 3,970 4,150 5 4 ICICI General Insurance 2,030 1,560 760 760 720 1,580 1,760 1,300 1,160 1,430 23 -9 Consolidation adjustment -3,408 -2,435 -3,459 -5,793 -5,063 -4,281 -5,298 -5,911 -4,782 -4,450 NM NM Subsidiaries PAT 4,728 3,460 3,398 720 1,767 3,560 3,760 1,630 2,558 3,889 52 9 ICICI Bank 22,742 23,521 25,322 26,520 26,553 27,090 28,890 29,220 29,762 30,301 2 12 Consol Profit 27,470 26,980 28,720 27,240 28,320 30,650 32,650 30,850 32,320 34,190 6 12

Source: MOSL, Company

31 October 2015 13

ICICI Bank

Valuation matrix

66 Rating CMP Mcap EPS (INR) P/E (x) BV (INR) P/BV (x) RoA (%) RoE (%)

(INR) (USDb) FY16 FY17 FY16 FY17 FY16 FY17 FY16 FY17 FY16 FY17 FY16 FY17

ICICIBC* Buy 277 24.3 21.8 25.4 9.8 8.0 132 150 1.62 1.36 1.58 1.58 15.0 15.3

HDFCB Buy 1,097 41.7 49.1 59.3 22.3 18.5 285 331 3.85 3.32 1.88 1.86 18.4 19.3

AXSB Buy 475 17.1 35.6 41.8 13.4 11.3 217 252 2.19 1.89 1.69 1.70 17.5 17.8

KMB* Neutral 689 19.0 19.2 26.0 35.8 26.4 183 209 3.76 3.30 1.11 1.40 13.9 14.5

YES Buy 759 4.8 60.0 75.8 12.7 10.0 327 388 2.32 1.96 1.67 1.73 19.8 21.2

IIB Buy 911 8.1 41.3 51.3 22.1 17.8 295 340 3.08 2.68 2.04 2.08 17.6 16.1

DCBB Sell 87 0.4 5.4 5.8 16.1 14.9 60 66 1.44 1.31 0.84 0.73 9.3 9.2

FB Neutral 54 1.4 4.4 5.6 12.3 9.8 49 53 1.12 1.03 0.86 0.95 9.5 11.0

JKBK Neutral 83 0.6 14.1 17.3 5.9 4.8 136 150 0.61 0.56 0.85 0.92 10.7 12.1

SIB Buy 21 0.4 2.5 3.1 8.0 6.7 29 31 0.72 0.66 0.55 0.58 9.4 10.3

Private Aggregate 117.9 17.9 15.0 2.70 2.37

SBIN (cons)* Buy 237 27.2 25.6 31.7 8.8 7.1 229 255 0.98 0.88 0.70 0.77 11.7 13.1

PNB Buy 128 3.6 19.6 26.8 6.5 4.8 220 244 0.58 0.53 0.57 0.70 9.3 11.6

BOI Neutral 132 1.3 19.4 27.1 6.8 4.9 410 432 0.32 0.30 0.20 0.25 4.8 6.4

BOB Buy 160 1.1 20.3 25.1 7.9 6.4 182 201 0.88 0.80 0.61 0.68 11.7 13.1

CBK Buy 277 2.2 43.8 59.7 6.3 4.6 573 619 0.48 0.45 0.39 0.48 8.1 10.0

UNBK Buy 157 1.5 35.7 46.6 4.4 3.4 317 356 0.50 0.44 0.56 0.65 11.8 13.9

OBC Buy 135 0.6 46.3 63.8 2.9 2.1 474 523 0.28 0.26 0.57 0.69 10.1 12.8

INBK Buy 125 0.9 21.1 30.6 5.9 4.1 278 301 0.45 0.42 0.50 0.65 7.8 10.6

CRPBK Neutral 44 0.1 16.5 21.9 2.6 2.0 141 158 0.31 0.28 0.54 0.64 12.3 14.7

ANDB Buy 65 0.6 17.8 22.8 3.7 2.9 180 196 0.36 0.33 0.55 0.62 10.3 12.2

IDBI Neutral 86 2.1 14.4 19.7 5.9 4.4 157 173 0.55 0.50 0.58 0.69 9.5 11.9

DBNK Neutral 42 0.4 8.8 12.5 4.8 3.3 126 136 0.33 0.31 0.36 0.44 7.2 9.6

Public Aggregate 41.6 7.5 5.7 0.68 0.62

HDFC* Under Review 1,257 30.0 35 42 23.1 17.7 165 188 4.94 3.90 2.46 2.55 23.6 22.7 LICHF Buy 480 3.7 34 42 14.2 11.3 182 216 2.64 2.22 1.48 1.55 20.1 21.3 DEWH Buy 225 1.0 26 33 8.6 6.8 179 204 1.26 1.10 1.27 1.29 15.6 17.2

IHFL Buy 722 4.7 56 72 13.0 10.1 275 304 2.63 2.37 3.91 4.07 25.9 24.8

GRHF Buy 255 1.4 7 9 37.5 29.8 24 28 10.78 8.95 2.18 2.05 28.9 28.6

REPCO Buy 705 0.7 24 34 28.8 20.7 152 182 4.64 3.87 2.20 2.32 17.3 20.4

IDFC Buy 59 1.4 10 12 6.0 5.1 107 116 0.28 0.25 1.75 1.83 8.8 9.8

RECL Buy 249 3.7 63 76 3.9 3.3 302 360 0.83 0.69 3.22 3.23 22.9 22.9

POWF Buy 240 4.8 54 60 4.4 4.0 285 329 0.84 0.73 3.07 3.03 20.4 19.7

SHTF Buy 943 3.2 62 73 15.2 12.9 457 515 2.06 1.83 2.08 2.29 14.0 15.0

MMFS Buy 228 1.9 12 15 18.9 14.9 109 120 2.09 1.90 1.93 2.22 11.5 13.3

BAF Buy 5,215 4.2 224 276 23.3 18.9 1,351 1,582 3.86 3.30 3.12 2.92 19.9 18.8

MUTH Buy 181 5.4 20 24 11.5 9.6 141 156 1.62 1.46 2.75 2.83 14.7 16.0

NBFC Aggregate 60.7 15.3 13.0 2.64 2.32

31 October 2015 14

ICICI Bank

Financials and valuations

Income Statement (INR Million) Y/E March 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016E 2017E 2018E Interest Income 259,741 335,427 400,756 441,782 490,911 531,822 612,637 718,995 Interest Expended 169,572 228,085 262,092 277,026 300,515 314,904 360,365 422,679 Net Interest Income 90,169 107,342 138,664 164,756 190,396 216,918 252,271 296,316 Change (%) 11.1 19.0 29.2 18.8 15.6 13.9 16.3 17.5 Other Income 66,479 75,028 83,457 104,279 121,761 131,901 153,723 182,372 Net Income 156,648 182,369 222,121 269,034 312,157 348,819 405,995 478,687 Change (%) 0.5 16.4 21.8 21.1 16.0 11.7 16.4 17.9 Operating Exp. 66,172 78,504 90,129 103,089 114,958 130,663 151,059 173,718 Operating Profits 90,475 103,865 131,992 165,946 197,199 218,156 254,936 304,969 Change (%) -7.0 14.8 27.1 25.7 18.8 10.6 16.9 19.6 Provisions & Cont. 22,868 15,830 18,025 26,264 39,000 42,427 45,929 54,651 PBT 67,607 88,034 113,967 139,682 158,199 175,729 209,006 250,318 Tax 16,093 23,382 30,712 41,577 46,446 49,204 61,657 73,844 Tax Rate (%) 23.8 26.6 26.9 29.8 29.4 28.0 29.5 29.5 PAT 51,514 64,653 83,255 98,105 111,754 126,525 147,349 176,474 Change (%) 28.0 25.5 28.8 17.8 13.9 13.2 16.5 19.8 Dividend (Including Tax) 18,170 21,228 25,996 28,336 31,729 36,186 42,142 50,472 Core PPP* 92,625 103,995 127,042 155,776 180,269 203,765 237,667 284,247 Change (%) 8.3 12.3 22.2 22.6 15.7 13.0 16.6 19.6 *Core PPP is (NII+Fee income-Opex) Balance Sheet (INR Million) Y/E March 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016E 2017E 2018E Share Capital 15,018 15,028 15,036 15,050 15,097 15,097 15,097 15,097 Equity Share Capital 11,518 11,528 11,536 11,550 11,597 11,597 11,597 11,597 Preference Capital 3,500 3,500 3,500 3,500 3,500 3,500 3,500 3,500 Reserves & Surplus 539,391 592,525 655,523 720,583 792,697 883,036 988,243 1,114,246 Net Worth 554,409 607,552 670,560 735,633 807,794 898,132 1,003,340 1,129,342 Of which Equity Net Worth 550,909 604,052 667,060 732,133 804,294 894,632 999,840 1,125,842 Deposits 2,256,021 2,555,000 2,926,136 3,319,137 3,615,627 4,339,736 5,271,120 6,385,094 Change (%) 11.7 13.3 14.5 13.4 8.9 20.0 21.5 21.1 Of which CASA Deposits 1,016,465 1,110,194 1,225,763 1,423,784 1,643,799 1,876,717 2,162,664 2,460,932 Change (%) 20.7 9.2 10.4 16.2 15.5 14.2 15.2 13.8 Borrowings 1,092,043 1,398,149 1,449,915 1,544,091 1,720,673 1,790,112 1,901,523 2,023,076 Other Liabilities & Prov. 159,864 329,987 321,336 347,555 317,199 365,997 423,141 489,088 Total Liabilities 4,062,337 4,890,688 5,367,947 5,946,416 6,461,293 7,393,976 8,599,124 10,026,600 Current Assets 340,901 362,293 414,175 415,296 423,046 435,013 508,839 613,661 Investments 1,346,860 1,595,600 1,713,936 1,770,218 1,581,292 1,818,486 2,000,335 2,200,368 Change (%) 11.4 18.5 7.4 3.3 -10.7 15.0 10.0 10.0 Loans 2,163,659 2,537,277 2,902,494 3,387,026 3,875,221 4,504,385 5,364,759 6,385,051 Change (%) 19.4 17.3 14.4 16.7 14.4 16.2 19.1 19.0 Net Fixed Assets 47,443 46,147 46,471 46,781 47,255 48,166 49,076 49,987 Other Assets 163,475 349,371 290,871 327,094 534,479 587,927 676,116 777,533 Total Assets 4,062,337 4,890,688 5,367,947 5,946,416 6,461,293 7,393,976 8,599,124 10,026,600 Asset Quality (%) GNPA (INR m) 100,343 94,753 96,078 105,058 150,947 167,944 169,460 175,213 NNPA (INR m) 24,074 18,608 22,306 32,980 62,555 71,306 66,306 61,022 GNPA Ratio 4.5 3.6 3.2 3.0 3.8 3.7 3.1 2.7 NNPA Ratio 1.1 0.7 0.8 1.0 1.6 1.6 1.2 1.0 PCR (Excl Technical write off) 76.0 80.4 76.8 68.6 58.6 57.5 60.9 65.2 E: MOSL Estimates

31 October 2015 15

ICICI Bank

Financials and valuations

Ratios Y/E March 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016E 2017E 2018E Spreads Analysis (%) Avg. Yield - Earning Assets 7.7 8.5 8.8 8.7 8.9 8.8 8.7 8.8 Avg. Yield on loans 8.3 9.4 10.1 10.0 9.8 9.3 9.3 9.4 Avg. Yield on Investments 6.2 6.6 6.7 6.6 6.3 6.4 6.1 5.9 Avg. Cost-Int. Bear. Liab. 4.8 5.6 5.7 5.5 5.5 5.1 5.1 5.1 Avg. Cost of Deposits 4.7 5.9 6.2 5.7 5.9 5.2 5.3 5.3 Interest Spread 2.9 2.8 3.0 3.2 3.5 3.7 3.6 3.6 Net Interest Margin 2.7 2.7 3.0 3.2 3.47 3.6 3.6 3.6 Profitability Ratios (%) RoE 9.7 11.3 13.3 14.4 15.0 15.3 15.9 16.9 Adjusted RoE 11.5 12.8 14.8 15.2 15.2 15.0 15.3 16.0 RoA 1.3 1.4 1.62 1.73 1.80 1.83 1.84 1.89 Int. Expended/Int.Earned 65.3 68.0 65.4 62.7 61.2 59.2 58.8 58.8 Other Inc./Net Income 42.4 41.1 37.6 38.8 39.0 37.8 37.9 38.1 Efficiency Ratios (%) Op. Exps./Net Income* 41.7 43.0 41.5 39.8 38.9 39.1 38.9 37.9 Empl. Cost/Op. Exps. 42.6 44.8 43.2 40.9 41.3 39.1 38.9 38.9 Busi. per Empl. (INR m) 72.4 81.6 88.0 86.8 104.6 111.2 125.6 143.3 NP per Empl. (INR lac) 9.0 11.1 13.4 13.6 16.5 17.2 19.0 21.6 * ex treasury Asset-Liability Profile (%) Loan/Deposit Ratio 95.9 99.3 99.2 102.0 107.2 103.8 101.8 100.0 CASA Ratio % 45.1 43.5 41.9 42.9 45.5 43.2 41.0 38.5 Invest./Deposit Ratio 59.7 62.5 58.6 53.3 43.7 41.9 37.9 34.5 G-Sec/Invest. Ratio 47.6 54.5 53.9 53.8 66.8 67.5 72.7 78.3 CAR 19.5 18.5 18.7 17.7 17.0 16.5 16.0 15.6 Tier 1 13.2 12.7 12.8 12.8 12.8 12.7 12.5 12.4 Valuation Book Value (INR) 95.7 103.3 113.2 122.9 135.2 150.8 168.9 190.7 BV Growth (%) 3.4 7.9 9.6 8.5 10.0 11.5 12.0 12.9 Price-BV (x) 2.7 2.4 2.3 2.0 1.8 1.6 1.5 ABV (for Subsidaries) (INR) 74.1 81.7 91.9 102.1 116.1 131.7 149.8 171.5 ABV Growth (%) 4.8 10.2 12.5 11.1 13.7 13.4 13.8 14.5 Price-ABV (x) 2.9 2.5 2.2 1.8 1.5 1.3 1.0 ABV (for Subs Invst & NPA) (INR) 71.2 79.5 89.2 98.1 108.5 123.1 141.8 164.2 Adjusted Price-ABV (x) 3.0 2.6 2.3 2.0 1.6 1.3 1.1 EPS (INR) 8.9 11.2 14.4 17.0 19.3 21.8 25.4 30.4 EPS Growth (%) 23.9 25.4 28.7 17.7 13.5 13.2 16.5 19.8 Price-Earnings (x) 24.7 19.2 16.3 14.4 12.7 10.9 9.1 Adj. Price-Earnings (x) 20.9 16.0 13.2 11.1 9.2 7.4 5.7 Dividend Per Share (INR) 2.8 3.3 4.0 4.6 5.0 5.7 6.6 7.9 Dividend Yield (%) 1.2 1.4 1.7 1.8 2.0 2.4 2.9 E: MOSL Estimates

31 October 2015 16

ICICI Bank

Corporate profile

Exhibit 20: Shareholding pattern (%) Jun-15 Mar-15 Jun-14

Promoter 0.0 0.0 0.0

DII 22.3 21.7 23.2

FII 69.3 70.1 69.3

Others 8.4 8.2 7.6

Note: FII Includes depository receipts

Exhibit 21: Top holders Holder Name % Holding

Deutsche Bank Trust Company Americas 29.0

LIC of India 8.5

Dodge & Cox International Stock Fund 4.4

Europacific Growth Fund 2.5

Carmignac Gestion A/c Carmignac Patrimoine 1.6

Exhibit 22: Top management Name Designation

K V Kamath Chairman

Chanda D Kochhar CEO/Managing Director

N S Kannan Executive Director

Rajiv Sabharwal Executive Director

K Ramkumar Executive Director

Exhibit 23: Directors Name Name

Chanda D Kochhar N S Kannan

V Sridar* Rajiv Sabharwal

Tushaar Shah* Krishnaswamy Ramkumar

Dileep Choksi* Alok Tandon

M S Ramachandran* V K Sharma*

Homi R Khusrokhan*

*Independent

Exhibit 24: Auditors

Name Type

S R Batliboi & Co LLP Statutory

Exhibit 25: MOSL forecast v/s consensus EPS (INR)

MOSL forecast

Consensus forecast

Variation (%)

FY16 21.8 21.7 0.6 FY17 25.4 25.6 -0.8 FY18 30.4 30.5 -0.4

Company description Promoted by the erstwhile ICICI Ltd, ICICI Bank was incorporated in 1994. Currently, the bank is India's largest private sector bank, with an asset base of INR6.5t. ICICIBC through its subsidiaries has an established presence in life and general insurance, asset management, and equity broking segments. The bank has an established presence in the country with 4,054 branches and 12,964 ATMs.

Exhibit 19: Sensex rebased

245

285

325

365

405

Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15

ICICI Bank Sensex - Rebased

ICICI BANK

OTHER BANK COMPANIES

SECTOR UPDATES

REPORT GALLERY

31 October 2015 18

ICICI Bank

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