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IAASTDIAASTD

In pursuit of the Millennium In pursuit of the Millennium

Development GoalsDevelopment Goals

Carl B. GreenidgeCarl B. Greenidge

PresentationPresentation (on (on behalfbehalf of Dr R. Watson, of Dr R. Watson, ChiefChief ScientistScientist, IBRD) to, IBRD) to

GFAR GFAR

TriennialTriennial ConferenceConference

New Delhi, Nov. 9th 2006New Delhi, Nov. 9th 2006

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IAASTDIAASTD’’ss purposepurpose

�� Overarching questionOverarching question ‘how ‘how cancan wewe more more effectivelyeffectively

•• reduce hunger and poverty, reduce hunger and poverty,

•• improve rural livelihoods, and improve rural livelihoods, and

•• facilitate equitable, environmentally, socially and ecofacilitate equitable, environmentally, socially and economically nomically sustainable development; (sustainable development; (MDGsMDGs 1 & 7 et al1 & 7 et al) )

throughthrough the the generationgeneration of, of, accessaccess to, and use of to, and use of agricultural agricultural knowledge, science and technology’knowledge, science and technology’(AKST)?(AKST)?

�� IAASTD is IAASTD is assessingassessing AKST in order to:AKST in order to:

�� guideguide policy and management decisions,policy and management decisions,

�� build and enhancebuild and enhance local and regional capacity to local and regional capacity to design, implement and utilize scientific assessments. design, implement and utilize scientific assessments.

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IAASTD involvesIAASTD involves……..a unique international effort that will……..a unique international effort that will

�� Evaluate Evaluate AKST in all its dimensions,AKST in all its dimensions,

�� Share views and createShare views and create a common vision of the future of a common vision of the future of agriculture among a diverse set of stakeholders,agriculture among a diverse set of stakeholders,

�� be be multimulti--thematicthematic, , multimulti--spatial and multispatial and multi--temporaltemporal; ; integrating integrating local knowledge with institutional knowledge and local knowledge with institutional knowledge and looking at policy and institutional issues in light of history alooking at policy and institutional issues in light of history and nd plausible future scenarios.plausible future scenarios.

�� Generate outputsGenerate outputs which will include an ensemble of peerwhich will include an ensemble of peer--reviewed subreviewed sub--global and global assessment reports.global and global assessment reports.

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Scope and features of the AssessmentScope and features of the Assessment

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The Four Broad QuestionsThe Four Broad Questions

�� What are the challenges that can be addressed What are the challenges that can be addressed through agricultural KST?through agricultural KST?

�� What are the likely positive and negative What are the likely positive and negative consequences of agricultural KST?consequences of agricultural KST?

�� What are the enabling conditions required to What are the enabling conditions required to optimize the uptake and diffusion of agricultural optimize the uptake and diffusion of agricultural KST?KST?

�� What investments are needed to help realize the What investments are needed to help realize the potential of agricultural KST?potential of agricultural KST?

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Development & Sustainability Goals• Decreased hunger and poverty

• Improved nutrition and human health

• Sustainable economic growth

• Enhanced livelihoods and equity

• Environmental sustainability

Indirect Drivers• Economic (demand, markets,..)

• Demographic (urbanization,..)

• Education, Culture, Ethics

• Sociopolitical

• Infrastructure

• Science and Technology

• Agricultural KS&T

Direct Drivers• Availability, & management of

natural resources, inc. land and

water, and biodiversity

• Climate change

• Labor

• Energy

• AKST use

Agricultural Outputs

& Services• Food, fiber

• Energy, biomass

• Landscape management

• Carbon sequestration

• Social change

(employment...)

• Env. change

Access, control & distribution- Extension / Dissemination- Credit/Capital/Assets

- Access/Knowledge markets- Inputs, such as agro-chemicals

Strategies and interventions

Research PolicyIPRLocal & institutional

generation of AKST

CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK

Strateg

ies and Interven

tions

Strateg

ies and Interven

tions

Strategies and interventions

Conceptual FrameworkConceptual Framework

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Overall Structure of the Global AssessmentOverall Structure of the Global Assessment

A: A: Historical (past 50 years) and current perspectivesHistorical (past 50 years) and current perspectives

ContextContext

B: B: Plausible futuresPlausible futures (present to 2050)(present to 2050)

analyze the positives and negatives both qualitatively and analyze the positives and negatives both qualitatively and quantitatively.quantitatively.

C&D: C&D: Options for ActionOptions for Action

Technology, capacity strengthening, policies and funding Technology, capacity strengthening, policies and funding strategies. strategies.

GEOGRAPHICAL STRUCTURE:GEOGRAPHICAL STRUCTURE:

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IAASTDIAASTD

The progress so far: ScenariosThe progress so far: Scenarios

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Global

Fragmented (regional)

Pro-activeReactive

Global

Orchestration

(Policies and markets)Equity, economic growthand public goods

Technogarden

(Green technologies)Green technologiesand ecological economics

Order from Strength

(Self sufficiency)National security

Adapting mosaic

(Local learning)Integrated management,Local adaptation andlearning

What are the consequences of plausible changes in development paths for ecosystems and their services over the next 50 years and what will be the consequences of those changes for human well-being?

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Crop Land Forest Area

Changes in crop land and forest area under MA Scenarios

Changes in direct driversChanges in direct drivers

1111

Changes in direct Changes in direct

drivers:drivers:

Nutrient loadingNutrient loading

•• Humans have Humans have

already doubled already doubled

the flow of the flow of

reactive nitrogen reactive nitrogen

on the on the

continents, and continents, and

some projections some projections

suggest that this suggest that this

may increase by may increase by

roughly a further roughly a further

two thirds by two thirds by

2050 2050

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Changes in ecosystem services Changes in ecosystem services

under MA Scenariosunder MA Scenarios

•• Demand for food Demand for food

crops is projected crops is projected

to grow by 70to grow by 70––85% 85%

by 2050, and water by 2050, and water

withdrawals by 30withdrawals by 30--

85%85%

•• Food security is not Food security is not

achieved by 2050, achieved by 2050,

and child and child

undernutrition undernutrition

would be difficult to would be difficult to

eradicate (and is eradicate (and is

projected to projected to

increase in some increase in some

regions in some MA regions in some MA

scenarios)scenarios)

Child undernourishment in 2050 under MA Scenarios

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Changes in ecosystem services Changes in ecosystem services

under MA Scenariosunder MA Scenarios

��Water Availability Water Availability

•• Global water Global water

availability increases availability increases

under all MA under all MA

scenarios. By 2050, scenarios. By 2050,

global water global water

availability increases availability increases

by 5by 5––7% (depending 7% (depending

on the scenario)on the scenario)

▪▪ Demand for water is Demand for water is

projected to grow by projected to grow by

between 30% and between 30% and

85%85% Water Withdrawals in 2050 under MA Scenarios

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Key ChallengesKey Challenges

�� Integrating local (traditional/indigenous) and institutional Integrating local (traditional/indigenous) and institutional

knowledgeknowledge

�� Designing a peerDesigning a peer--review system for local knowledgereview system for local knowledge

��Ensuring scientific rigor and differentiating between evidenceEnsuring scientific rigor and differentiating between evidence--

based findings and different value systems and ideologiesbased findings and different value systems and ideologies

��How to address cross cutting issuesHow to address cross cutting issues

��How to deal with uncertainties (I.e., how well may certain factsHow to deal with uncertainties (I.e., how well may certain facts be be

established)established)

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Overall Structure of the AssessmentOverall Structure of the Assessment

�� Global AssessmentGlobal Assessment

�� Ten chapters, each with an executive summaryTen chapters, each with an executive summary

�� A Summary for decision Makers A Summary for decision Makers

�� Five SubFive Sub--global assessmentsglobal assessments

�� Five chapters each, each with an executive summaryFive chapters each, each with an executive summary

�� A Summary for decision Makers A Summary for decision Makers

�� An Overall Synthesis SummaryAn Overall Synthesis Summary

1.1. The chapters should be defensible to our colleaguesThe chapters should be defensible to our colleagues

2.2. The executive summaries should be defensible to our colleagues The executive summaries should be defensible to our colleagues

and understandable to the technical advisors to policymakersand understandable to the technical advisors to policymakers

3.3. The Overall Synthesis Report should be understandable to The Overall Synthesis Report should be understandable to

decisiondecision--makers and address their policy needsmakers and address their policy needs

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….thank you

You cannot solve the problem with the same kind of thinking that created the problem

Albert Einstein

…We have done well, AKSTs have made a huge difference

in the way the people live today (for better or worse), and we

need to learn from these lessons and do a lot better..nowHow we will do that is the question. AKST can help, but just like

With nuclear fission…we can do good or bad….