hydrometeorological prediction center 2011 review

Hydrometeorological Prediction Center

Hydrometeorological Prediction Center Hydrometeorological Prediction Center 2011 Review2011 Review

Kenny JamesForecaster

With contributions from Faye Barthold, Mike Bodner, Keith Brill, Mike Folmer, Jim Hoke, Dave Novak, Bob Oravec, Dan Petersen, and Mike Schichtel

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ObjectivesObjectives

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• Summary of HPC operations

• Verification/Feedback/Future of - QPF - Winter weather - Medium range - Testbed activities


HPC Operations

Model DiagnosticsSurface Analysis

QPF

Daily Weather Map

Short Term Weather

Medium Range

Alaska Med. Range Tropical

Hydrometeorological guidance for:

•NWS field offices

•Other NCEP centers

•Federal/state agencies

•Aviation

•Media

•Private sector

•International partners

•Academic community

•General public

Winter Weather

Surface Analysis

QPF

Daily Weather Map

Short Term Weather

Medium RangeWinter Weather

Alaska Med. Range Tropical

Model Diagnostics

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QPFQPF

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Irene

Mississippi

Birds Point levee


% Improvement over NAM 31%% Improvement over GFS 25%% Improvement over ECMWF 13%

FY11 annual GPRA Goal 0.3, HPC 0.34 – 2nd highest ever

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Hydrometeorological Prediction Center6


QPF FeedbackQPF Feedback

• Latest NAM (NEMS-NMMB) shows some improvement over prior Latest NAM (NEMS-NMMB) shows some improvement over prior version, possibly attributed to less of a slow biasversion, possibly attributed to less of a slow bias

• NAM CONUSNEST shows better skill than parent runNAM CONUSNEST shows better skill than parent run

• GFS more consistent and reliable since July 2010 implementation, GFS more consistent and reliable since July 2010 implementation, more often the model of choice compared to pre-July 2010 versionmore often the model of choice compared to pre-July 2010 version

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Positional biases continue for MCSsPositional biases continue for MCSsFrom Yost and Schumacher, 2011From Yost and Schumacher, 2011

NAM & GFSNAM & GFS

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0.25” in 6h @ F24

Perfe

ct

SREF

May 2010 – June 2011

SREFSREF

SREF overconfident

HPC PQPF – Gaining popularity!HPC PQPF – Gaining popularity!

Mean/spread useful - contribute to variance for PQPF, but also overconfidentMean/spread useful - contribute to variance for PQPF, but also overconfident

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Hi-res NMM/ARWHi-res NMM/ARW

• Often improve upon the north bias for MCSsOften improve upon the north bias for MCSs

• Still a high bias with many false alarmsStill a high bias with many false alarms

• Missed have them July 19/20 during recordMissed have them July 19/20 during record

flooding due to preemption for tropical invest systemsflooding due to preemption for tropical invest systems

• Contribute to a hi-res ensemble suite (SSEO)Contribute to a hi-res ensemble suite (SSEO)

compiled at the SPCcompiled at the SPC

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Winter WeatherWinter Weather

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HPC Deterministic SnowfallHPC Deterministic Snowfall

East of the RockiesEast of the Rockies

Heavily influenced by 2 major snowstorms,Heavily influenced by 2 major snowstorms,which models had difficulty withwhich models had difficulty with

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x 10

0


East of the RockiesEast of the Rockies

HPC Deterministic SnowfallHPC Deterministic Snowfall

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.


Winter Wx Winter Wx FeedbackFeedback

- influences - influences precip type & precip type & snow amounts snow amounts

in our WWD in our WWD blender, blender,

forecasters forecasters less confidentless confident

New NAM too deep with lows Oct 28, Nov 1, 8, 28New NAM too deep with lows Oct 28, Nov 1, 8, 28

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- Image from WFO La Crosse


Winter Wx Feedback Cont.Winter Wx Feedback Cont.

• P-type & SN based on microphysics/LSM dataP-type & SN based on microphysics/LSM data

• Would like additional parameters for our WWD blender Would like additional parameters for our WWD blender

- NAM CONEST 700 mb temps- NAM CONEST 700 mb temps

- UKMET 78 hr 2m/925/850/700 mb temps- UKMET 78 hr 2m/925/850/700 mb temps

• Impact-based guidance to assist in decision support and Impact-based guidance to assist in decision support and determining societal impactsdetermining societal impacts

- SREF prob of ZR (0.1, 0.10, 0.25, etc..), Max SN rate - SREF prob of ZR (0.1, 0.10, 0.25, etc..), Max SN rate

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Medium RangeMedium Range

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1) RTMA based downscaling

2) Model 2m temps replace HPC adjusted MOS and GEFS MOS

3) GMOS replaces MEX MOS

5) 50 day bias corrected ECMWF and ECMWF Ensemble Mean

6) 50 day bias corrected GFS and GEFS Mean

4) GMOS / GFS MEX MOS Hybrid

6 upgrades over the past year!

Manually Adjusted Days 4-7 Grid Verification vs RTMA

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GFS/GEFS Fast Bias

Medium Range FeedbackMedium Range Feedback

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- Verification white- GFS yellow- GEFS members brown

too fast


GFS MOS Max T day 7 possibly bogusGFS MOS Max T day 7 possibly bogus

Max T at Roswell, NMmuch higher

Medium Range FeedbackMedium Range Feedback

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Medium Range Feedback

• NAEFS grids for all NDFD parametersNAEFS grids for all NDFD parameters

• More model guidance for watch/warning decision support & for More model guidance for watch/warning decision support & for determining societal impactsdetermining societal impacts

- GEFS probs for SN > 4, 8, 12”, ZR > 0.01, 0.10, 0.25”- GEFS probs for SN > 4, 8, 12”, ZR > 0.01, 0.10, 0.25”

- Heat index > 105, Wind Chill < -15, Wind Speed > 25 or 35 kts- Heat index > 105, Wind Chill < -15, Wind Speed > 25 or 35 kts

• Access to parallel runs of the GFS/GEFS without adaptive sounding Access to parallel runs of the GFS/GEFS without adaptive sounding datadata

• Hopeful that the improved NAM leads to a better DGEX Hopeful that the improved NAM leads to a better DGEX

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Testbed Interactions Testbed Interactions

GOES-R Proving Ground

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Final thoughts & plans Final thoughts & plans

• Interpreting hi-res guidance may require a paradigm shiftInterpreting hi-res guidance may require a paradigm shift

• Native grid resolution desired by forecastersNative grid resolution desired by forecasters

• Clearer file naming convention for modelsClearer file naming convention for models

• 2012-16 HPC plans & activities include:2012-16 HPC plans & activities include:

- Expand decision support services for high impact events - Expand decision support services for high impact events

- Extend medium range, including adding probabilities - Extend medium range, including adding probabilities

- Increase automation for greater responsiveness- Increase automation for greater responsiveness23


Questions?Questions?

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hydrometeorological prediction center 2011 review

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