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NOAA Ocean Prediction Center: HYCOM Evaluation J.M. Sienkiewicz (OPC) and J.A. Morgan (I.M. Systems Group, Inc.) HYCOM Meeting, Oct. 27-29, 2004, RSMAS, Miami, FL

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Page 1: NOAA Ocean Prediction Center: HYCOM Evaluation · Ocean Prediction Center Responsibility, Motivation, Mission – Operational forecast center – Wind and waves Forecasting and Analyses

NOAA Ocean Prediction Center:HYCOM Evaluation

J.M. Sienkiewicz (OPC) andJ.A. Morgan (I.M. Systems Group, Inc.)

HYCOM Meeting, Oct. 27-29, 2004, RSMAS, Miami, FL

Page 2: NOAA Ocean Prediction Center: HYCOM Evaluation · Ocean Prediction Center Responsibility, Motivation, Mission – Operational forecast center – Wind and waves Forecasting and Analyses

Ocean Prediction Center

● Responsibility, Motivation, Mission– Operational forecast center– Wind and waves

● Forecasting and Analyses to 5 Days– High Seas and Offshore Zones– Weather Fax Products– Storm, Gale, Hurricane Warnings

Page 3: NOAA Ocean Prediction Center: HYCOM Evaluation · Ocean Prediction Center Responsibility, Motivation, Mission – Operational forecast center – Wind and waves Forecasting and Analyses

Ocean Prediction Center

Page 4: NOAA Ocean Prediction Center: HYCOM Evaluation · Ocean Prediction Center Responsibility, Motivation, Mission – Operational forecast center – Wind and waves Forecasting and Analyses

The Gulf Stream: Data

Page 5: NOAA Ocean Prediction Center: HYCOM Evaluation · Ocean Prediction Center Responsibility, Motivation, Mission – Operational forecast center – Wind and waves Forecasting and Analyses

The Gulf Stream: GFS 10m Winds

30 day bias (knots) of 10m GFS winds vs. QuikSCATNeutral to moderately unstable MABL

Page 6: NOAA Ocean Prediction Center: HYCOM Evaluation · Ocean Prediction Center Responsibility, Motivation, Mission – Operational forecast center – Wind and waves Forecasting and Analyses

Current Status: SST

● GOES (6km resolution), Infrared

Page 7: NOAA Ocean Prediction Center: HYCOM Evaluation · Ocean Prediction Center Responsibility, Motivation, Mission – Operational forecast center – Wind and waves Forecasting and Analyses

Future SST Products

● POES (1km or 4km), Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR)

● MODIS (1km), Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), NASA AQUA/TERRA

● TMI (30 km), TRMM's Microwave Imager (TMI), NASA Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM )

● Mixed GOES/POES, IR/Microwave products

Page 8: NOAA Ocean Prediction Center: HYCOM Evaluation · Ocean Prediction Center Responsibility, Motivation, Mission – Operational forecast center – Wind and waves Forecasting and Analyses

Current Status: Models

● Accurate forecast model fields are needed for the protection of life and property at sea and the enhancement of economic opportunity

● Comparison of HYCOM (NCEP AOFS) output to:

– Observational data– NCEP Regional Ocean Forecast System

(ROFS)– NCEP Global Forecast System (GFS)– Eta

Page 9: NOAA Ocean Prediction Center: HYCOM Evaluation · Ocean Prediction Center Responsibility, Motivation, Mission – Operational forecast center – Wind and waves Forecasting and Analyses

Current Status: Model SST

Page 10: NOAA Ocean Prediction Center: HYCOM Evaluation · Ocean Prediction Center Responsibility, Motivation, Mission – Operational forecast center – Wind and waves Forecasting and Analyses

Ocean Features

● Location and strength of persistent ocean features– Currents– Fronts– Eddies and Jets– Case Study: The Gulf Stream

Page 11: NOAA Ocean Prediction Center: HYCOM Evaluation · Ocean Prediction Center Responsibility, Motivation, Mission – Operational forecast center – Wind and waves Forecasting and Analyses

The Gulf Stream: GOES SST

Page 12: NOAA Ocean Prediction Center: HYCOM Evaluation · Ocean Prediction Center Responsibility, Motivation, Mission – Operational forecast center – Wind and waves Forecasting and Analyses

The Gulf Stream: ROFS

Page 13: NOAA Ocean Prediction Center: HYCOM Evaluation · Ocean Prediction Center Responsibility, Motivation, Mission – Operational forecast center – Wind and waves Forecasting and Analyses

00 hr ROFS SST

Page 14: NOAA Ocean Prediction Center: HYCOM Evaluation · Ocean Prediction Center Responsibility, Motivation, Mission – Operational forecast center – Wind and waves Forecasting and Analyses

24 hr ROFS SST

Page 15: NOAA Ocean Prediction Center: HYCOM Evaluation · Ocean Prediction Center Responsibility, Motivation, Mission – Operational forecast center – Wind and waves Forecasting and Analyses

48 hr ROFS SST

Page 16: NOAA Ocean Prediction Center: HYCOM Evaluation · Ocean Prediction Center Responsibility, Motivation, Mission – Operational forecast center – Wind and waves Forecasting and Analyses

00 hr ROFS Current (knots)

Page 17: NOAA Ocean Prediction Center: HYCOM Evaluation · Ocean Prediction Center Responsibility, Motivation, Mission – Operational forecast center – Wind and waves Forecasting and Analyses

24 hr ROFS Current (knots)

Page 18: NOAA Ocean Prediction Center: HYCOM Evaluation · Ocean Prediction Center Responsibility, Motivation, Mission – Operational forecast center – Wind and waves Forecasting and Analyses

48 hr ROFS Current (knots)

Page 19: NOAA Ocean Prediction Center: HYCOM Evaluation · Ocean Prediction Center Responsibility, Motivation, Mission – Operational forecast center – Wind and waves Forecasting and Analyses

NAOFS Evaluation

● For the evaluation, we are developing a variety of products including N-AWIPS fields and web-based image comparisons; these will aid in examining ocean features across multiple datasets.

● The OPC hopes to use the NAOFS output fields to improve existing forecasts of winds and waves, and as a basis for an expanding suite of oceanographic products.

Page 20: NOAA Ocean Prediction Center: HYCOM Evaluation · Ocean Prediction Center Responsibility, Motivation, Mission – Operational forecast center – Wind and waves Forecasting and Analyses

Summary

● Status – Tooling up for evaluation– GOES SST (starting place)– Additional SST fields (microwave, POES)

● ROFS data assimilation– Very positive with AVHRR and GOES SSTs

● NAOFS focus initially on features– Analyses – Forecasts

● [email protected]● [email protected]● www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/sst/goessst.html

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