hydrological modeling community water model · from 46 mio. people in 2010 to 87 –120 mio. people...
TRANSCRIPT
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Hydrological modeling
Community Water Model
Name of presenter
Towards Innovative Solutions through
Integrative Water Futures Analysis
Peter Burek
EAC Workshop, Entebbe, 4 Dec 2017
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Increasing Demands, Increasing Challenges
Domestic water
withdrawals in
Africa increase by
400%
Agricultural water
requirements in
Africa increase by
240% due to
irrigated land
expansion and
climate change
Industrial water
withdrawals in
Africa increase by
350%
Food Domestic Energy & Industry Ecology
Human needs Ecological Health
Lost of wetlands
and biodiversity
River do not reach
the sea
Concept of
environmental flow
By 2050, SSP2 – Middle of the Road scenario
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Lake Victoria basin
From 46 Mio. people in 2010 to
87 – 120 Mio. people in 2050(depending on scenario SSP1-SSP3)
90% - 260% increase
Socio-economic change - Population
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Socio-economic change - GDP
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
GD
P p
er c
apit
a [U
S$/y
ear/
cap
]
Lake Victoria basin
GDP(PPP) - Middle of the Road
Lake Victoria basin
From 1275 US$/year/cap in 2010 to
6900 US$/year/cap in 2050
550% more GDP per cap. 2050
Middle of the Road scenario (SSP2)
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Cultivate land will increase by 20-40% till 2050 for EAC
30000
34000
38000
42000
46000
50000
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Cu
ltiv
ated
lan
d [
10
00
ha]
Cultivated Land
EAC SSP1 EAC SSP2 EAC SSP3
Maps available:
www.gaez.iiasa.ac.at
Evolution of cultivated land - EAC
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Irrigated land will increase by 60-200% till 2050 for EAC
Maps available:
www.gaez.iiasa.ac.at
Evolution of irrigated land - EAC
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Irri
gate
dl l
and
[1
00
0 h
a]
Irrigated land
EAC SSP1 EAC SSP2 EAC SSP3
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Evolution of energy demand and supply
Numbers hydropower
National Water Resources Assessment,
Uganda
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Modeling support
to test options and pathways
in order to reach “The Visions”
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Modeling approach
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Reducing risks of water stress
Water-stress wedge strategies:
efficiency; recycling; reservoir expansion, desalination, etc.
What strategy is best to implement where and when? How much will it cost?
How will this impact land and energy use?
To demonstrate the impact of strategic solution pathways towards more sustainable water use to policy makers.
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Hydro-economic modeling framework
Key features represented in the
model:
Drivers: Demand growth;
Resource availability; Climate
change; etc.
Processes: Reservoir
management; Irrigation use;
Electricity generation; Water
pumping; End-use efficiency;
Wastewater treatment; etc.
Impacts: Prices; Demands;
Emissions; Water quality;
Environmental flow; Groundwater
depletion; Resource security; etc.
Decisions: Extract resources;
Operate infrastructure; Expand
infrastructure; Trade resources
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Hydrological modelCWATM
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Community Water Model
Feature Description
Community driven Open-source but lead by IIASA
Well documented Documentation(Wiki), automatic source code documentation
Easy handling Use of a setting file with all necessary information for the user
Multi-platform Windows, Mac, Linux, Unix - to be used on different platforms (PC,
clusters, super-computers)
Modular Processes in subprograms, easy to adapt to the requirements of options/
solutions
Open source on Github
https://github.com/CWatM
Community Model on the web
https://cwatm.github.io/
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Community Water Model
Feature Description
Flexible different resolution, different processes for different needs, links to other
models, across sectors and across scales
Adjustable to be tailored to the needs at IIASA i.e. collaboration with other
programs/models, including solutions and option as part of the model
Multi-disciplinary including economics, environmental needs, social science perspectives etc.
Sensitive Sensitive to the option / solution
Fast Global to regional modeling – a mixture between conceptional and physical
modeling – as complex as necessary but not more
Comparable and
exchangeable
Planned to be part of the ISI-MIP community, part of capacity development
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Community Water Model
Feature Description
Flexible different resolution, different processes for different needs, links to other
models, across sectors and across scales
Adjustable to be tailored to the needs at IIASA i.e. collaboration with other
programs/models, including solutions and option as part of the model
Multi-disciplinary including economics, environmental needs, social science perspectives etc.
Sensitive Sensitive to the option / solution
Fast Global to regional modeling – a mixture between conceptional and physical
modeling – as complex as necessary but not more
Comparable and
exchangeable
Planned to be part of the ISI-MIP community, part of capacity development
![Page 16: Hydrological modeling Community Water Model · From 46 Mio. people in 2010 to 87 –120 Mio. people in 2050 (depending on scenario SSP1-SSP3) 90% - 260% increase Socio-economic change](https://reader033.vdocuments.mx/reader033/viewer/2022060519/604d1cca7e5b2e77152708f7/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
CWATM Lake Victoria
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WDFEI
1211 mm
MSWEP
1213 mm
Chirps
1192 mm
GSWP3
1170 mm
PGFv2
1190 mm Different gridded
datasets using
observed rainfall
data
Period:
1981-2010
CWATM Lake Victoria
Calibration of discharge for LV - precipitation
Annual mean
precipitation
National Water
Resources Assessment,
Ministry of Water and
Environment,
Uganda, 2013
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CWATM Lake Victoria
Calibration of discharge for LV Calibration Jinja Pier
Objective function used:
Kling-Gupta efficiency (KGE)
KGE = 0.93
Nash Sutcliff = 0.86
R2 = 0.94
Bias = 1.5%
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Objective function used:
Kling-Gupta efficiency (KGE)
KGE = 0.36
Nash Sutcliff = -0.47
R2 = 0.37
Bias = -9.7%
CWATM Lake Victoria
Calibration of discharge for LV Calibration Laropi
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CWATM Lake Victoria
Precipitation
RunoffDischarge
Groundwater
rechargeWater demand
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Next steps
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• Water quality becomes more and more
important. This is particularly true for the
Lake Victoria where deteriorating water
quality already shows significant impact on
fish stocks and increases treatment costs
for water for domestic purpose.
Next steps: Water Quality
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25
Next steps: GroundwaterEnergy intensity of water supply options
Data sources: Fan et al. (2013); Wada et al. 2014; hydroBASINS (2015).
Preliminary results
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Conclusion• Water is cross-cutting. Consistent solution portfolios will need to be
identified that work across economic sectors, borders, and scales of
management.
• Water policy and management must be made a development
priority
• Linking science with practitioners:
Modelling based on robust but ambitious scenarios
On day 2 and 3
• Think through possible development pathways and solutions
• Benefit from robust water scenarios to support your decision
making for SDG / Country visions water resources planning
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Thank you