Energy Vol. 13, No. 7, pp. 549-556, 1988 0360~5442/88 $3.00 + 0.M) Printed in Great Britain. All rights reserved Copyright 0 1988 Pergamon Press plc

HYDROELECTRIC POWER POTENTIAL AND ITS USE IN TURKEY

E . TASDEMIROGLU

Mechanical Engineering Department, Middle East Technical University, Ankara, Turkey

(Received 25 September 1987)

Abstract-Hydroelectric development in Turkey is briefly reviewed. The results of estimates of gross and economically exploitable hydroelectric power potentials are compared. Dam sites and their order for construction are identified. Present and future developments in the power sector are analyzed and projections are given for electricity consumption and production to the year 2010. Hydraulic, thermal and nuclear contribu- tions to total electricity generation are discussed. Finally, problems associated with hydroelectric power are identified.

HYDROELECTRIC DEVELOPMENT

Hydroelectric power development was initiated in Turkey with the construction of the first plant in Tarsus in 1902.’ During the 192Os, several dams began operating.2 Total hydraulic power consumption in 1930 was about 7 GWh/yr.3 In 1930, the importance of electricity generation in the national development was fully recognized. Laws on hydroelectric energy were enacted to accord the rights for utilization and management to state organizations.4 Since that time, yearly statistics have been kept on electricity production and consumption.5 These data are given in Table 1 for the period from 1930 to 1985.“9

It is evident from Table 1 that hydraulic power consumption has substantially increased during recent years. In 1930, the share of hydraulic power generation was 7%, whereas the figure reached 43% in 1985. It is interesting to observe the sharp increase in the share of hydraulic power generation from 1955 to 1960. During this period, a number of small plants were started, thereby increasing the total installed power from 38.1 to 445.3 MW.”

As a result of the rise in oil prices since 1973, there has been a recurrence of interest in hydroelectric development. The potential for development in the country was reevaluated by several authorities and new projects were initiated during the 1970~.“-‘~ The installed electricity generating capacity of the plants, including both thermal and hydraulic outputs, has had average annual increases of about 9% during the last 25 yr.16 At the end of 1985, the total installed electric power in Turkey was 9119.1 MW; of this, 43% was supplied by hydroelectric plants.

Six state organizations and some privileged companies are primarily involved in these developments.3 The EIE (Electrical Power Resources Survey and Development Administra- tion) works on data collection on stream flow, surveys of catchment areas, and developments of feasibility studies for hydroelectric plants. DSi (State Hydraulic Affairs) organizes the rights for rational water utilization, both for energy production and irrigation, develops surveys and projects, and supervises the construction of dams. Two state banks, ETiBANK and SijMERBANK, have the rights of management and administration of their own energy- generating plants. TEK (Turkish Electricity Board) administrates electricity generating plants and arranges electricity prices. MTA (Mineral Research and Exploration Institute) investigates geological structures for possible dam sites. Besides these state organizations, some privileged companies work in surveying, projection, construction, and administration of hydroelectric plants in accordance with rights granted by the government.

549

550 E. TASDEMIRO~LU

Table 1. Hydraulic power consumption and production data since 1935.

Year Iydraulic power generation,

GWh/yr

Total electricity consumption,

GWh/Yl-

106

213

397

528

790

1,580

2,815

4,953

8,623

15,719

24,616

36,000

Share of hydraulic power

generation, %

7

6

4

5

4

6

35

44

35

37

46

40

1930 7

1935 12

1940 14

1945 24

1950 30

1955 90

1960 1,001

1965 2,179

1970 3,003

1975 5,904

1980 11,348

1985 14,000

Installed qeneratinhcapacity,

1.6

4.4

9.1

10.7

24.0

38.1

445.3

616.3

787.6

1.872.6 2.356.3 3.896.4

Table 2. Results of estimations for hydroelectric power potential.

Number of Total Year of Method observation Gross

research used observation stations

period hydro potential

(station,year) MW TWh/yr

1955 H+ 83 700 61.2 537

1961 H 98 900 56.9 498

1965 H 229 1,700 60.0 447

1965 H "8 Q t 229 1,700 49.4 433

1966 H 518 3,000 49.9 435

1966 H vs Q 518 3,000 51.2 449

1969 H 560 3,500 59.2 519

1971 H vs Q 660 4,300 49.2 431

1978 H vs Q 660 52.0 455

1985 H vs Q 660 49.4 433

t Hypsocraphical technique.

+H ead versus Flow diaw-ams.

Share of installed

hydro potential %

1

3

4

4

6

6

33

37

38

42

43

43

POWER POTENTIAL AND USE

Since 1955, many attempts have been made to estimate the gross hydroelectric potential of the country.6,‘7-27 In these studies, two different techniques, head vs flow diagrams and hypsographics, were used.2” The results are listed in Table 2. Head vs flow diagrams are an approximate method used for large areas where the distribution of observation stations is not sufficient. The second technique usually gives more accurate results and is used when the distribution of the stations over the territory is nearly homogeneous and sufficient. Differences in these estimates are usually based on alterations of stream-flow observations. However, the gross hydroelectric power-generation capacity of the country is about 432 TWh/yr or nearly 1% of that of the world. Of this, about 112 TWh/yr could be economically viable. With these results, Turkey ranks just after Russia and Norway, which are among countries in Europe with carefully estimated hydroelectric potential. Estimation of economically usable potential is very difficult, since it requires proper consideration of a number of factors. First, the technically available potential should be estimated considering the hydrogeological structure of the site, type of plant, flow potential, machinery efficiency (turbine, generator, transformer, etc.), and industrial usability.2g Careful technical and economic analyses are then needed to identify economically viable sites. In this type of study, other economic parameters, such as conventional fuel prices, pay-back of the investment, lifetime of the plant, etc., should also be considered.

Turkish hydroelectric power potential 551

552 E. TASDEMIROCLU

Table 3. Some characteristics of 26 main river zones.

Reqion/Subssct:cn

No Name

1 Erqene 2B Bat1 Marmara 2D Do&u Marmara 3 Susurluk

6 Kiiciik Menderes 70 \I.BUyiik Menderee 7C Cine 713 A.Xiyiik Qnderes 8B Dalaman 8D 5’qenGay PB K&priicay 9D Manavqat 10 Burdur 11 Akarcay 32G ;'orsuk 12K A.Sakarya 13 Bat1 Karadsniz 14D Kelkit 14K A.Yegilrnak 14G Y.Yegillrmak 15G Y.Klzlllrmak 15K A.tizlllrmak 16B Beygehir 16G Karaman 16D Ululrmak 17B Gb;ksu 17D Berden 10D Gskdere 18B Zamsnti 18G A.Seyhan 19 Asi 20K Y.Ceyhan 20G A.Ceyhan 2l.K Karasu 21G A.Firat 21D Murat 22B Harfit 22D D.Karadenis 23B Y.Coruh 23D Oltu 23K A.Coruh 24 Aras 25 Van 26B Bati Dicle 26D Eotan

TOT&L

Average Flow, m'/s

8.3

2*: 64:3

2:-; 14:o 17.1

10;:: 17.6 29.3 86.0

150.2

9":: 87.7 36.8 72.9

138.9 63.9 67.0 197.9

11513 24.7 62.0 67.4 129.4 13.2 84.9

225.0 194.5 646.0 451.5 23.8 10.9 14.8 13.3 28.1 24.7 10.1 76.1

144.3

l-

4

Gross ltential,

MW

I.14 262 329 ,207 329 447

:571 236 206

;3:48 ,255 ,379 101

1% ,145 ,045 ,004 620 509 787 ,4g

:; ,246 087

2% ,005 559 ,053

$9' ,925 ,098

:g

359 ,549

*a;;

::z':

,417

Average Energy

Production Capacity, Whlyr

0 0

372

:z! 100

1,464 641 902

3,246

00

;,;';%

2;801 1,490

678 ;,g

' 73 9 6

1,678 1,148 1,689 1,311 3.48;;

2,124

:-;;E: 26:853 4,982 5,803 5,931 1,505

671

x65 '237

4,215 8,178

11,282

As a Percentaqa of Gross Fotential.

43 8

:: 21 62

26

In Fig. 1, Turkey’s 47 main river zones are shown.30 Some characteristics of these sites are given in Table 3.= The total gross potential and total energy-production capacity of these sites are nearly 50,OOOMW and 112TWh/yr, respectively. As an average, 26% of the total gross potential may be economically exploitable.

DSI estimates that there are 436 sites available for hydroelectric plant ~~st~ction (see Table 4).% Of these, 48 plants are now in operation and supply 13.6% of the total potential. Others are at different project stages, namely, in construction, near completion, projected, in projection, in the master plan, and exploitable. Tables 2 and 4 show some differences for the total potential and total yearly average production, since the data are taken from different sources. About 112*TWh/yr of production could be changed, depending on the results of future exploitation at 206 recently discovered sites. Table 4 also shows the reliable yearly production capacities, which are based on minimum rainfall conditions.

FUTURE ELECTRICITY PRODUCTION

Turkey’s electrical energy demand and production are shown in Fig. 2. The data collected from different sources were previously evaluated and were then used to construct

Turkish hydroelectric power potential

Table 4. Primary hydroelectric plant projects and their potentials.

Project Power, chase I Number

MW I

In operation 40

In construction 38 Final project 28

Fro jetted 46

In projection 7

Master plan 63

Exploitable 206

TOTAL 436

3,896

8,235

4,431

1,201

1,222

4,695

7,548

31,278

;eneration,GWh/y

iverage Reliable

14,166 10,238

28,168 21,761

14,696 8,305

5,176 2,883

4,507 3,296

16,544 10,356

29,518 18,450

112,775 75,299

1 T

I

As a ,ercentaqe of total

13.60

2a.90

11.05

3.83

4.38

13.75

24.51

100.00

553

Fig. 2. 3*26~31-35 The demand is expected to reach 319 GWh/yr by 2010. In other words, the demand will increase from 600 kWh in 1986 to 4000 kWh per capita in 2010. In this projection, contributions of nuclear energy and recently planned small hydroelectric plants are also included. Without these, an increasing electrical energy supply gap will appear after 2000. By the year 2000, about 80% of the total hydroelectric potential will be exploited, whereas thermal production will be about 1000 GWh/yr. After 2000, almost all indigenous energy resources will

360

320

I

t 260-

240-

L z-s

= 2co-

z

Total production

Total demand

Hydra production

ol ’ ’ ’ ’ 8 ’ ’ ’ a ’ ’ 1 1966 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2OlO

Years

Fig. 2. Turkey’s electrical energy demand and production to 2010.

554 E. TASDEMIROGLU

Table 5. Scheduled nuclear plant construction to 2004.

Operational POWIT,

start MW

Generation,Wh Average Reliable

1992 1,000 6,000 6,000

2001 1,000 6,000 6,000

2001 1,000 6,000 6,000

2002 1,100 6,600 6,600

2002 1,100 6,600 6,600

2003 1,100 6,600 6,600

2003 1,100 6,600 6,600

2004 1,300 7,800 7,800

2004 1,300 7,800 7,800

be used in the country. The government has, __ therefore, given special attention to develop nuclear power.jL Construction of a 1000 MW commercial nuclear power plant is planned on the south coast of Turkey (Akkuyu) and will be included in the national grid by 1992. Other projected nuclear plants are given in Table 5.36 With respect to the report of the government,32 after 2001, two nuclear plants should be started in operation each year in order to provide for the electrical energy demands of the country.

Thermal power generation will be much more important than hydraulic power generation during the forthcoming years because of the construction of a new thermal plant in the southeast of Turkey (Afsin-Elbistan). 37 It has been estimated that this area alone, with over 120 km’, contains 2% of the world’s total lignite reserves. The capacity of the existing plant has been planned to increase gradually.37

DISCUSSION

Turkey is in the process of becoming an industrialized country. Electricity consumption per capita is one of the decisive indicators of the development of a nation. The country urgently needs to improve its power systems. Hydroelectric power use has been substantially increased throughout the past years and now about 43% of electricity production is obtained from these resources. The balance is currently supplied by thermal power plants. However, the known resources, both hydroelectric and thermal will not be sufficient after 2000. Nuclear develop- ment is the most promising alternative for supplying future electricity demands.

Since the principal aim of this paper is to review hydroelectric potential and use, problems associated with these technologies will now be outlined.

Many surveys have been made in Turkey to estimate the hydroelectric potential. However, more data are needed on stream flows and on geological features of possible dam sites. These data will improve the inputs needed for feasibility studies.

The hydroelectric potential of the country is limited to 112 TWhlyr, if all of the known sites are exploited. The national development plan aims to complete this program by 2010. In addition, there are 350 large and medium possible hydroelectric plants on which construction has not yet been initiated (see Table 4). The total electricity-generating capacity of these plants is more than 19 GW. In order to implement these constructions, large capital investments are required. Apart from high initial investments, these installations often require a considerable amount of engineering and construction work in order to ensure their proper functioning and to protect them from floods. Qualified personnel and companies experienced in dam construction, which can properly control the construction phases, are evidently needed.

Many potential sites are located in East Anatolia. However, the west is more industrialized and populated and, therefore, energy may have to be delivered from east to west at high cost. A solution to this problem is to locate energy-intensive industries in the east of the country.

All power systems inherently incur energy losses at generating stations and resistance losses in transmission and distribution networks. For 1985, power-system losses are estimated to be

Turkish hydroelectric power potential 555

3.6 TWh. New efforts are needed to rehabilitate transmission and distribution networks, install new conductors, improve system operations, and upgrade system-dispatch facilities.

Small hydroelectric plants can provide 4% of the total needed resources in Turkey.“’ For Turkey’s conditions, mini-hydroelectric plants can be effectively used in isolated areas for village electrification schemes and small industry. Depending on the size and place, some of these can also be connected to the central grid. Civil engineering work on small hydroelectric plants can now be performed by a number of small contracting companies in the country. Other advantages of small plants include manufacturing possibilities for basic electro- mechanical equipment in the country. There are some national companies which have been producing such equipment during the last 7 yr.3

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REFERENCES

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556 E. TASDEMIRO~LU

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29. UN, “The Hydroelectric Potential of Europe’s Water Resources,” 2 Vols., UN, Economic Commission for Europe, Report No. ST/ECE/EP/39, New York, NY (1968).

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34. Ministry of Industry and Commerce, “Main Plan Report on Energy Sector and Industry in Turkey,” (in Turkish), Ankara, Turkey (1987).

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37. M. GtimiiSsu, H. Turgut, and M. Senay, “Utilization of Afsin-Elbistan Lignite for Heating in East Anatolia,” (in Turkish), 4th Turkbh Energy Congress, Vol. 1, pp. 175-180, Izmir, Turkey (1986).