hybrid (solar pv-diesel) mini grids in philippines - giz.de

Varun Gaur, PPRE, University of Oldenburg Page 1

Master Thesis Report June 2013

Hybrid (Solar PV-Diesel) Mini Grids in Philippines

Prepared for

GIZ Germany

Prepared By

Varun Gaur Masters Student (2011-2013)

Post Graduate Program in Renewable Energy (PPRE)

University of Oldenburg, Germany

Email: varungaur.engg@gmail.com

Varun Gaur, PPRE, University of Oldenburg Page 2

Varun Gaur, PPRE, University of Oldenburg Page 3

Acknowledgement

Foremost, I would like to express my sincere gratitude to my supervisors Dr Detlev Heinemann (University of Oldenburg) and Mr Tobias Cossen (GIZ) for the continuous support in my Master thesis and research, for their patience, motivation, enthusiasm and immense knowledge. Their guidance helped me in all the time of research and writing of this thesis. Besides my main supervisors, I will also like to thank the entire team at Project Development Program (PEP) of GIZ for their support. Last but not the least, I would like to thank my family for supporting me throughout the life

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Table of Contents

CHAPTE R 1 INTRODUCTION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .6 1.1 Background ...................................................................................................................... 6 1.2 Objectives of my Master Thesis ...................................................................................... 7 1.3 Methodology .................................................................................................................... 7 1.4 Contents of the Report ..................................................................................................... 9

CHAPTER 2 PHILIPPINES: AN OVERVIEW . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10 2.1 Basic Information........................................................................................................... 10 2.2 Electricity sector in Philippines ..................................................................................... 12

2.3 Electricity Generation by Source ................................................................................... 12 2.4 Need for Renewable Energy and trends in the Fossil Fuel mix of Grid ........................ 14

CHAPT ER 3 OFF GRI D EL ECT RI CIT Y I N PHIL IPP INES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16 3.1 Current Scenario ............................................................................................................ 16 3.2 Strategy of the Government in the Off Grid Sector ....................................................... 17 3.3 Schemes for Off Grid Electrification ............................................................................. 18

3.4 Problems with Diesel Mini Grids and the need for Renewable Energy ........................ 19 3.5 Schemes for Renewable Energy in Off Grid Electrification ......................................... 21

CHAPTER 4: ELECTRIFICATION SCENARIO IN PHILIPPINE ISLANDS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22 4.1: Status Quo of Electricity in Island A ............................................................................ 22

4.1.1 Electricity Consumption in the island (Findings from Household survey) ......... 26

4.1.2 Electricity Generation in the Island ..................................................................... 28 4.1.3 Transmission and Distribution of electricity........................................................ 29

4.1.4 Other important findings from Island A .............................................................. 30 4.2: Status Quo of Electrification in Island B ...................................................................... 31 4.3: Status Quo of Electrification in Island C ...................................................................... 33

CHAPTER 5 MODELLING OF THE SOLAR-DIESEL HYBRID POWER SYSTEM . . . . . . . . 36 5.1: Indicative Technical Configuration of the proposed Solar-Diesel Hybrid Power

System .................................................................................................................................. 37

5.2: Methodology for Modelling the Hybrid Power System ............................................... 38 5.3: Resultant Excel Tool for modelling the Hybrid Power System.................................... 45

CHAPTER 6: RESULTS OF THE MODELING OF SOLAR-DIESEL HYBRID SYSTEM FOR ISLAND A

& ISLAND B . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47 6.1: Different Load Scenarios for Island A .......................................................................... 47

6.2: Modelling results for Island A-Scenario1 ..................................................................... 49 6.2.1 Sensitivity Analysis for IslandA-Scenario1 ............................................................ 50

6.3: Modelling results for Island A-Scenario2 ..................................................................... 53 6.3.1 Sensitivity Analysis for IslandA-Scenario2 ............................................................ 54

6.4: Modelling results for Island A-Scenario3 ..................................................................... 57

6.4.1 Sensitivity Analysis for IslandA-Scenario3 ............................................................ 58 6.5: Modelling results for Island B ...................................................................................... 61

6.5.1 Sensitivity Analysis for IslandA-Scenario2 ............................................................ 62 CHAPTER 7: ASSESSMENT OF ROOFTOP PV POTENTIAL IN ISLAND B . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 65

7.1: Methodology for the Assessment ................................................................................. 65 7.2: Resorts with relevant roof tops for Solar PV installations............................................ 67

7.3: Potential Roof Top Solar PV installation in Island B ................................................... 73 CHAPT ER 8: CO NCLUSIO NS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 74

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ANNEXURES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 76 REFERENCES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 98

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CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION

1.1 Background

The Philippines is a large archipelago nation with more than 7000 islands. The uneven

spread of population makes decentralized electricity a favorable choice for off grid

electrification. The Government has already been encouraging Diesel (and bunker oil)

Genset based Mini Grids in the country. There is an estimated 374.5MW 1(aggregated

capacity) Diesel Mini Grids in Philippines. However, there exists, many problems

associated with such Mini Grids, for example:

High cost of electricity production (transportation cost to islands make Diesel very

costly); cost of Diesel can be more than 1Euro per liter on a Filipino island

Pollution from Diesel Gensets (more than 750 grams of CO2 per kWh of electricity

production) and it can be worse for Bunker Oil based Mini Grids

Problems associated with partial load operation of Diesel Gensets [Reduced fuel

efficiency, higher GHG emissions and increased maintenance cost of Diesel

Genset]

Problems with the logistics; fuel shortage can lead to power interruptions which

may result in social unrest in the region

The location of Philippines (between 4N and 21 N latitude) makes it a high solar

potential zone. Geothermal and Solar PV have high potential in the country. The

average solar potential in Philippines is around 5.1 kWh /m2 /day. Unlike Geothermal

which is generally a big power capacity system (MW scale), Solar PV is an effective off

grid electrification solution. The PV system can act as a clean substitute of Diesel

(standalone Solar PV) or fuel saver on a Diesel generator powered mini-grid (solar-

Diesel hybrid).

In case of standalone Solar PV system or Solar-Diesel Hybrid system, care should be

taken such that:

Solar PV is efficiently utilized

Power Supply and Electric Load is matched in such a way that battery

requirement is kept minimum

Because of the above mentioned reasons, I thought that there could be a great scope of

standalone or solar-Diesel hybrid Mini Grids in Philippines. With this background, I

1 Source: Geographic, Technological and Economic Analysis of isolated Diesel grids by Paul Bertheau, year 2012

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carried out my Master thesis- Hybrid (Sola