hybrid (solar pv-diesel) mini grids in philippines - giz.de

Varun Gaur, PPRE, University of Oldenburg

Master Thesis Report June 2013

Hybrid (Solar PV-Diesel) Mini Grids in Philippines

Prepared for

GIZ Germany

Prepared By

Varun Gaur Masters Student (2011-2013)

Post Graduate Program in Renewable Energy (PPRE)

University of Oldenburg, Germany

Email: [email protected]


Acknowledgement

Foremost, I would like to express my sincere gratitude to my supervisors Dr Detlev Heinemann (University of Oldenburg) and Mr Tobias Cossen (GIZ) for the continuous support in my Master thesis and research, for their patience, motivation, enthusiasm and immense knowledge. Their guidance helped me in all the time of research and writing of this thesis. Besides my main supervisors, I will also like to thank the entire team at Project Development Program (PEP) of GIZ for their support. Last but not the least, I would like to thank my family for supporting me throughout the life


Table of Contents

CHAPTE R 1 INTRODUCTION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .6 1.1 Background ...................................................................................................................... 6 1.2 Objectives of my Master Thesis ...................................................................................... 7 1.3 Methodology .................................................................................................................... 7 1.4 Contents of the Report ..................................................................................................... 9

CHAPTER 2 PHILIPPINES: AN OVERVIEW . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10 2.1 Basic Information........................................................................................................... 10 2.2 Electricity sector in Philippines ..................................................................................... 12

2.3 Electricity Generation by Source ................................................................................... 12 2.4 Need for Renewable Energy and trends in the Fossil Fuel mix of Grid ........................ 14

CHAPT ER 3 OFF GRI D EL ECT RI CIT Y I N PHIL IPP INES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16 3.1 Current Scenario ............................................................................................................ 16 3.2 Strategy of the Government in the Off Grid Sector ....................................................... 17 3.3 Schemes for Off Grid Electrification ............................................................................. 18

3.4 Problems with Diesel Mini Grids and the need for Renewable Energy ........................ 19 3.5 Schemes for Renewable Energy in Off Grid Electrification ......................................... 21

CHAPTER 4: ELECTRIFICATION SCENARIO IN PHILIPPINE ISLANDS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22 4.1: Status Quo of Electricity in Island A ............................................................................ 22

4.1.1 Electricity Consumption in the island (Findings from Household survey) ......... 26

4.1.2 Electricity Generation in the Island ..................................................................... 28 4.1.3 Transmission and Distribution of electricity........................................................ 29

4.1.4 Other important findings from Island A .............................................................. 30 4.2: Status Quo of Electrification in Island B ...................................................................... 31 4.3: Status Quo of Electrification in Island C ...................................................................... 33

CHAPTER 5 MODELLING OF THE SOLAR-DIESEL HYBRID POWER SYSTEM . . . . . . . . 36 5.1: Indicative Technical Configuration of the proposed Solar-Diesel Hybrid Power

System .................................................................................................................................. 37

5.2: Methodology for Modelling the Hybrid Power System ............................................... 38 5.3: Resultant Excel Tool for modelling the Hybrid Power System.................................... 45

CHAPTER 6: RESULTS OF THE MODELING OF SOLAR-DIESEL HYBRID SYSTEM FOR ISLAND A

& ISLAND B . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47 6.1: Different Load Scenarios for Island A .......................................................................... 47

6.2: Modelling results for Island A-Scenario1 ..................................................................... 49 6.2.1 Sensitivity Analysis for IslandA-Scenario1 ............................................................ 50

6.3: Modelling results for Island A-Scenario2 ..................................................................... 53 6.3.1 Sensitivity Analysis for IslandA-Scenario2 ............................................................ 54

6.4: Modelling results for Island A-Scenario3 ..................................................................... 57

6.4.1 Sensitivity Analysis for IslandA-Scenario3 ............................................................ 58 6.5: Modelling results for Island B ...................................................................................... 61

6.5.1 Sensitivity Analysis for IslandA-Scenario2 ............................................................ 62 CHAPTER 7: ASSESSMENT OF ROOFTOP PV POTENTIAL IN ISLAND B . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 65

7.1: Methodology for the Assessment ................................................................................. 65 7.2: Resorts with relevant roof tops for Solar PV installations............................................ 67

7.3: Potential Roof Top Solar PV installation in Island B ................................................... 73 CHAPT ER 8: CO NCLUSIO NS . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 74


ANNEXURES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 76 REFERENCES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 98


CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION

1.1 Background

The Philippines is a large archipelago nation with more than 7000 islands. The uneven

spread of population makes decentralized electricity a favorable choice for off grid

electrification. The Government has already been encouraging Diesel (and bunker oil)

Genset based Mini Grids in the country. There is an estimated 374.5MW 1(aggregated

capacity) Diesel Mini Grids in Philippines. However, there exists, many problems

associated with such Mini Grids, for example:

High cost of electricity production (transportation cost to islands make Diesel very

costly); cost of Diesel can be more than 1Euro per liter on a Filipino island

Pollution from Diesel Gensets (more than 750 grams of CO2 per kWh of electricity

production) and it can be worse for Bunker Oil based Mini Grids

Problems associated with partial load operation of Diesel Gensets [Reduced fuel

efficiency, higher GHG emissions and increased maintenance cost of Diesel

Genset]

Problems with the logistics; fuel shortage can lead to power interruptions which

may result in social unrest in the region

The location of Philippines (between 4°N and 21° N latitude) makes it a high solar

potential zone. Geothermal and Solar PV have high potential in the country. The

average solar potential in Philippines is around 5.1 kWh /m2 /day. Unlike Geothermal

which is generally a big power capacity system (MW scale), Solar PV is an effective off

grid electrification solution. The PV system can act as a clean substitute of Diesel

(standalone Solar PV) or fuel saver on a Diesel generator powered mini-grid (solar-

Diesel hybrid).

In case of standalone Solar PV system or Solar-Diesel Hybrid system, care should be

taken such that:

Solar PV is efficiently utilized

Power Supply and Electric Load is matched in such a way that battery

requirement is kept minimum

Because of the above mentioned reasons, I thought that there could be a great scope of

standalone or solar-Diesel hybrid Mini Grids in Philippines. With this background, I

1 Source: Geographic, Technological and Economic Analysis of isolated Diesel grids by Paul Bertheau, year 2012


carried out my Master thesis- “Hybrid (Solar PV- Diesel) Mini Grids in Philippine Islands”.

The Master thesis aims to answer the following research questions:

What is the Electrification Scenario in Philippine Islands? What are the

associated problems? Is there at all any intervention required?

What will be the impact of injecting Solar PV into the existing Diesel Mini Grids?

Will it be cost effective to hybridize or completely solarize existing Diesel Mini

Grids?

1.2 Objectives of my Master Thesis

I had the following objectives behind my Master thesis:

1. To assess the Off Grid electrification scenario in Philippines, with the focus on Diesel

Mini Grids in selected islands;

2. To understand the impact of injecting Solar PV into the existing Diesel Mini Grids in

Philippine Islands, with focus on the impact on Levelized cost of electricity generation

1.3 Methodology

I carried out my thesis under the supervision of

Dr Detlev Heinemann (my Professor at the University of Oldenburg, Germany)

Mr Tobias Cossen (Project Manager, PEP- GIZ (German Agency for International

Cooperation))

I utilized following methodology to execute my thesis:

Activity 1: Getting an overview of the Electricity Sector of Philippines

I started my thesis with the literature survey of Electricity Sector in Philippines, with the

focus on OffGrid Electricity. With the support of GIZ, I also attended a high level talk by

Philippine delegation to Germany that helped me in getting deeper insights into the

electricity sector of Philippines.

Activity 2: Assessment of Solar/ Solar Diesel Hybrid Mini Grids elsewhere in the

world

Simultaneous to Activity 1, I also studied existing Solar/ Solar-Diesel Hybrid Mini Grids

all across the world. For this, I utilized literature on the internet and various publications

at the library of Technical University, Berlin. GIZ also helped me in undergoing relevant

trainings at SMA Solar Academi (Kassel Germany) where I learnt Island System of SMA.

I later utilized the knowledge of SMA Sunny Island system to model the Hybrid Power

System. I also participated in various Renewable Energy workshops in Germany and

took regular guidance from the Experts in the field of Decentralized Energy.


Activity 3: Scoping Mission to Philippine Islands

Activity 1 and Activity 2 prepared me with the broad picture of Philippine OffGrid

Electricity Sector and the possible Renewable Energy options. Thereafter, I undertook a

scoping mission to Philippines with the objective to understand the electricity load

pattern, electricity supply system and electricity costs in the selected islands. This

mission was supported by GIZ and I was locally assisted by the GIZ’s local partner

Powersource Philippines Inc (PSPI). This mission was a part of collaboration between

GIZ and PSPI and therefore some information will be kept confidential in the thesis

report.

During the mission, I surveyed 3 islands (I will call them as Island A, Island B and Island

C) with the focus on Island A. As a part of my mission, I carried out a household survey

and the interviews of mini grid operators in the Island A, whereas for Island B and Island

C, I only carried out preliminary assessment of their Mini Grids.

Activity 4: Modelling the power supply system for the Solar/ Solar-Diesel Hybrid

Mini Grids in the selected island

Activity 3 helped me in getting precise information on the electricity load pattern and the

electricity generation system of the selected island. After coming back to Germany, I

utilized this information to model the Solar/ Solar Diesel Hybrid Mini Grid in the selected

island. By modelling, I mean re-producing different system configurations (power system

sizes) and the associated costs (investment costs and electricity generation costs),

based on different input parameters (such as Electric Load, Solar Insolation, Solar

penetration, etc).

For the modelling:

I utilized the technical configuration of Hybrid System on the lines of SMA Island

System

I developed an excel application which inputs local parameters (such as Electric

Load curve, Solar Insolation, Diesel costs, required solar penetration etc) and

provides the required Power supply system configuration and the associated

costs (system costs and electricity generation costs)

I then carried out sensitivity analysis to understand the possible influencing

parameters to the proposed Hybrid System.

Activity 5: Rooftop PV assessment

Island B is a tourist island with a large number of resorts. During my survey, I was also

advised to do an indicative assessment of possible Rooftop Solar PV potential of the

resorts.


1.4 Contents of the Report

There are 8 chapters in the report including the current chapter on Introduction.

The next Chapter (Chapter 2) presents a general overview of Philippines and its

electricity sector. Chapter 3 focuses on the OffGrid electricity Sector in Philippines. It will

talk about the current government strategy and schemes for the offgrid electricity.

Chapter 4 presents the execution of my Scoping Mission and the results of the survey.

Chapter 5 details out my methodology and the resultant excel application which I have

utilized to model the Solar/ Solar Diesel Hybrid Power System. The results of system

modelling and various sensitivity analyses are discussed in Chapter 6. The focus of

modelling is Island A. Chapter 7 presents the results of Roof Top PV assessment at

Island B.

Chapter 8 concludes the report.


CHAPTER 2 PHILIPPINES: AN OVERVIEW

2.1 Basic Information

Situated in Southeast Asia, the Philippines is a sovereign state with a democratic

government. It is a large archipelago nation with an estimated 7,107 islands, out of

which around 3,000 are inhabited (source ACCESS project, UNDP). It has a coastline of

around 36000 kms. To its west across the South China Sea lies Vietnam and in the east,

it is surrounded by Philippine Sea. Across the sea on north lies Taiwan and on the south

sits Indonesia and Malaysia. Located between 4°N and 21° N latitude, it is situated on

the pacific ring of fire and pacific typhoon belt

Philippines is the 12th most populous country in the world with a population of around 92

million (Census 2010, source-Wikipedia). In addition, there are around 12 million

Filipinos which live overseas. Manila is its capital with a population of around 1.6 million.

Philippines is the 43rd largest economy in the world where contribution of agriculture,

industry and Service sector are 13.8%, 30% and 56.2% respectively (source: Wikipedia).

Figure 2.a: Map of Philippines; Source: World Atlas

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vietnam


The country can be divided into 3 regions viz Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao as shown in

the figure 2.b below.

Manila (Capital) depicted as Red dot in the picture, lies in the Luzon region. Luzon

region has the highest share of Philippine economy followed by Visayas and Mindanao.

Figure 2.b: Regions of Philippines; Source: ESMAP, World Bank, 2010

Luzon

Visayas

Mindanao

Manila


2.2 Electricity sector in Philippines

Philippines has an electrification rate of 83% with around 16 million people living without

access to electricity (Source IEA, 2012). Luzon has the highest electrification rate

followed by Visayas and then Mindanao.

The Organizational Structure of Electricity Sector in Philippines and the

concerned agencies are as follows

Policy Making: Department of Energy

Electricity Regulations: Energy Rgulations Commission

Electricity Generation: Generation sector was earlier dominated by state owned

NPC (National Power Corporation), however, it is now open to private players

and there are already many IPPs selling power to NPC.

Electricity Transmission: Transmission seactor was earlier under NPC,

however, now it is privatized: National Power Grid Corporation of Philippines is

currently the Transmission Operator and is a joint venture between a Chinese

and a Filipino company.

Electricity Distribution: Distribution sector is vastly privatized. Distribution

sector includes: Investor owned electric utilities (Meralco is one of them), Electric

Cooperatives or local government owned utilities

National Electrification Administration (NEA) provides financial as well as

technical assistance to Electric Cooperatives

Off Grid electrification: Off Grid Sector is dominated by NPC-SPUG (National

Power Corporation- Small Power Utility Group); Some areas are also operated

by NPPs (New Private Power Producers) and QTPs (Qualified Third Parties);

Offgrid sector is explained in the next chapter.

2.3 Electricity Generation by Source

As on 2010, total installed

electricity capacity in Philippines is

16.359 GW. The figure 2.c on the

right side presents the mix of

installed power.

Figure 2.c: Mix of Installed Power; Department of Energy, 2010


The figure 2.d below graphically shows the generation mix in the electricity capacity.

It shows that fossil fuels form around 65% of the total installed capacity. There is also a

significant proportion of Oil based electricity generation. Renewables are dominated by

Geothermal (Quasi Renewable), which forms 12% of the mix. Other Renewable such as

solar and wind are present in a very small proportions.

The Following picture 2.e presents the Electricity mix in different regions of Philippines.

Figure 2.d: Percentage of the Mix of Installed Power Capacities

Luzon:

Electricity mix

dominated by

Coal and Gas

Visayas:

Electricity Mix dominated

by Geothermal and Oil

Mindanao:

Electricity mix

dominated by Coal and

Hydro

Figure 2.e: Electrification type in Different Regions


As shown, each region has a combination of base load power plants (such as Coal or

Geothermal) and balancing power plants (such as Gas, Hydro or Oil)

2.4 Need for Renewable Energy and trends in the Fossil Fuel mix of Grid

Philippine has a significant proportion of Oil in its grid connected installed power

capacity. However, there is a strong need to find its substitute. I found that within 8 years

(between 2001 and 2009), the R/P ratio of Oil in Philippines fell down by a factor of 10.

Please see figures 2.f below

The above figures show that within year 2001 and 2009, Oil Reserves in Philippines

have come down by a factor of 2 and Oil production has climbed up by a factor of 5. This

implies that R/P ratio has come down by a factor of 10.

This alarming decline rate has surely made the Philippine Government to review their

policies and figure below shows the change of generation type in Electricity generation

mix in the last few years.

Figure 2.f: Proven Oil Reserves-Philippines, Source:

US- EIA

Figure 2.f: Oil Production-Philippines, Source: US-

EIA


The figure shows that within 2001-2009, Oil based electrification has reduced

significantly, however, still the expenditures on Oil imports in 2011 was 5.7% of GDP

(source Geographic, Technological and Economic analysis of isolated Diesel Grids by

Paul Bertheau, Year 2012).

Thus, we saw that there has been a strong reliance on Oil for the Grid Connected

Electricity Sector, and there is a strong need for its substitute. In the next chapter, we will

try to understand the Off Grid Electricity Sector in Philippines.

Figure 2.g: Change in Electricity Mix; source: University of Philippines 2010


CHAPTER 3 OFF GRID ELECTRICITY IN PHILIPPINES

3.1 Current Scenario

NPC-SPUG (National Power Cooperation- Small Power Utiliy Group) is the government

agency majorly responsible for off grid/ island electrification in Philippines. Offgrid/

Island electrification sector in the country is primarily based on Diesel Gensets. As per a

recent study2 , there exists around 374.5 MW of Diesel Mini Grids in Philippines. NPC-

SPUG operates 534 generating units with a capacity of 278.398 MW in 221 areas. NPC

SPUG has been able to energize 3,947 barangays (villages), most of which depend on

Diesel Genset (with an exception of hydro and wind at one location each).

As per the data from NPC SPUG, 11% of island Mini Grids (of NPC-SPUG) operate for

24 hours while remaining provide electricity for less than 24 hours, with majority of them

operating for 6-8 hours. Presented below is the classification of Diesel Mini Grids based

on their hours of operation.

Presented next is the classification of Mini Grids based on the installed power capacity.

2 Geographic, Technological and Economic analysis of isolated Diesel Grids by Paul Bertheau, Year 2012

Service Hours of Mini Grids Mini Grid Areas (Numbers)

6-8 hours 149

10-15 hours 36

16-20 hours 11

24 hours 25

Total 221

Table 3.a: Classification of Mini Grids as per the hours of operations; Source: NPC SPUG


It shows that maximum number of Mini Grids is less than 1MW.

3.2 Strategy of the Government in the Off Grid Sector

OffGrid Areas have been dominated by the operations of NPC SPUG. However,

government is now keen to push private sector in the field of OffGrid with creation of

entities such as NPPs (New Power/ Private Producers), which are selected through a

competitive selection process. Further, remote and unviable areas are expected to be

operated by QTP (Qualified Third Parties) which are also private entities.

Government has classified different Offgrid areas as per the respective gross electricity

generations in year 2011. These classifications are then used to decide which area is to

be operated by NPC-SPUG or NPP or QTP. Following table presents the classifications:

So, the areas where electricity generations in 2011 were more than 10GWh, will

continue to be under NPC SPUG. Areas with smaller electricity generations will go to

NPPs and QTPs.

Gross Electricity

Generations in 2011

Category of the

Area

Stakeholders

More than 10 GWhs Large Areas NPC- SPUG

More than 1 GWhs Medium Areas NPP (New Power/ Private

Providers)

More than 50MWhs Small A Areas QTPs (Qualified Third

Parties) Less than 50MWhs Small B Areas Table 3.c: Classification of Mini Grids as per the Operating stakeholders

Table 3.b: Classification of Mini Grids as per installed power capacity; Source: Study by Paul Bertheau, 2012


3.3 Schemes for Off Grid Electrification

The following figure presents the Offgrid electrification scheme in Philippines. The

explanation is as follows. Firstly NPPs (or power generating utilities) are selected on the

basis of competitive TCGR (True Cost Generation Rate). NPPs sell power to Distribution

companies (which can be Electric Cooperative or Local Government Unit or a Private

Company). Distribution companies sell electricity to consumers at a rate which is

regulated by Energy Regulatory Commission and pays the corresponding SAGR

(Subsidized Accepted Generation Rate) to NPP. NPP gets the difference between

TCGR and SAGR as OBI (Output based subsidy) from Power Sector Management and

Liability Corporation. This OBI is actually sourced from the surcharge collected from all

the End users of electricity in the country.

Figure 3.a: Off Grid Electrification Scheme; Source: Alliance for Rural Electrification

NPPs

Distribution

Companies

Power Sector

Management and

Liability Corporation

All End users

Power Revenue

Energy Regulatory

Commission

Regulates rates

and services

SAGR (Subsidized

Acceptable

Generation Rate)

OBI (Output

based Subsidy)

OBI= TCGR-SAGR

Surcharge

NPP selected on the

basis of best TCGR

(True cost Generation

Rate)


3.4 Problems with Diesel Mini Grids and the need for Renewable Energy

In the earlier sections, we observed that almost entire Off grid sector in Philippines is

based on Diesel Genset. However, there are serious problems with Diesel

Electrifications:

1. High Cost of Electricity Generation- Diesel is already quiet expensive in

Philippines and transportation cost of Diesel to Islands further increases the cost.

Figure below indicates the Regional Oil prices (Singapore) which dictates Oil Prices

in Philippines. The figure shows a fluctuation of Oil prices between 103 $/ bbl to 124

$/ bbl in year 2011 (Source: Department of Energy, Philippines). The cost of Diesel

in Manila as on 1st December 2012 was around 1 USD/ Liter. Further cost increases

substantially by the time it reaches islands

2. Carbon Emissions with Diesel Genset: A Diesel Genset generally emits 750

Grams of CO2 with production of 1 KWh of electricity. This emission rate can go

higher in case of Bunker Oil based electricity generation.

3. Problems with Partial Load of operation of Diesel Genset- Diesel Gensets

have an inherent problem that when they operate at partial load , then its fuel

efficiency decreases significantly. Generally a Diesel Genset requires around 300

ml of Diesel for generating 1 unit of electricity, however at partial load, this

requirement increases. Figure below presents the drop of fuel efficiency at partial

load

Table 3.c: Classification of Mini Grids as per the Operating stakeholders

Figure 3.b: Oil Price Movement in Philippines


This figure shows that how the fuel efficiency drops at partial load operation. It

shows that for example: a 20 KW generator running at full load requires 1.6

Gallons of fuel for generating 20 KWh, however, at ¼ load, it requires 0.6 Gallons

of fuel for generating 5 KWh (1/4 of 20 KW) ie 2.4 Gallons for generating 20

KWh.

Further, the carbon emissions also increase with partial load operation. Partial

load operation also increases wear and tear of the Genset.

4. Fuel Shortage also cause power interruption and anger amongst people

Figure 3.c: Fuel Efficiency of Diesel Genset at different Loads; Source: Diesel Service and Supply Inc, USA


3.5 Schemes for Renewable Energy in Off Grid Electrification

I first try to understand the government schemes of OffGrid Renewable Energy.

Following are the main findings:

Cash Sales based subsidy

In a government document (Department of Energy), I found that RE based

electrification in Mini Grids will be rewared by subsidy as follows

Output based Subsidy (OBI) = 50% (TCGR-SAGR)* KWh of electricity produced.

However, it is unclear whether this OBI will be over and above the OBI as given in

Diesel based electrification where OBI= 100% (TCGR-SAGR)* KWh of electricity

produced

Fiscal Benefits

In addition to OBI, there was a mention of following extra benefits for RE

• Income tax holiday for 7 years

• Duty free importation of RE machinery

• Exemption from universal charge

• RPS ( Renewable Portfolio Standard) which is the bindings on Distribution

companies to buy certain % of electricity from RE sources.

It is unclear whether these benefits are only for Grid Connected Renewables or also

for Offgrid Renewables.

I tried to clarify these doubts during my meetings at Department of Energy, however,

government officers had no clear information and I was only pushed from one door to

another.

Thus, in this chapter, we saw that Offgrid Electrification in Philippines is majorly based

on Diesel and this Diesel based electrification is highly subsidized. High cost of Diesel

makes the electricity cost very high and a huge financial burden. This brings in a strong

case of Renewable Energy based Offgrid electrification.


CHAPTER 4: ELECTRIFICATION SCENARIO IN PHILIPPINE ISLANDS

In the previous chapters, I presented a broad picture of Philippines and its Off Grid

electricity sector. This was primarily based on my Literature survey. After getting a broad

picture of Filipino Off Grid Electrification Sector, I undertook a scoping mission to

selected Islands in Philippines. The objective was to understand the electrification

scenario in the selected islands and utilize the information to model the Solar/ Solar

Diesel hybrid Mini Grids for the same. Now on, I will present you my findings and

assessment from the selected islands. Chapter 4 will present the findings from the

scoping mission and in the following chapters, I will utilize the information to model the

PV system.

My mission was supported by GIZ and the same has asked to keep some select

information confidential. During the mission, I surveyed 3 islands and will refer them as

Island A, Island B and Island C. It is to be noted that the focus of my mission is Island A,

however, I will also present crucial learning’s from Island B and Island C.

The findings from the respective islands are discussed next.

4.1: Status Quo of Electricity in Island A

Located in the Visayas sea, Island A is around 2.5 hours boat ride from nearest port.

With around 600 households, it has a population of around 3000.

I had 2 objectives with my survey of Island A

Understand the existing electricity supply scenario

Understand the existing electricity demand pattern

In the survey, I was assisted by 2 employees of Power Source Philippines Inc (PSPI),

which is our local partner in the project. The names of the PSPI officials are: 1) Mr Erwin

Tindoc and 2) Mr Romy Alvarez. PSPI also hired 6 Resource Persons for assistance in

household survey.

I started my assessment with a Focused Group Discussion (FGD) with the local council

(Barangay council). This helped me in getting a broad picture of the village. In the FGD, I

got to know that the island is divided into 6 clusters (Sitios) of households. It has 2

Primary schools, 1 high school and 1 small health center.


As conveyed in the FGD, the main sources of income in the island are:

Fishing

Carpentry

Small Shops

Remittance from family members living in the cities or abroad

Island Council also mentioned that the main electric load in the island is Light and TV.

The source of electricity in the island is a large number of small Diesel Gensets typically

5 KVA, each serving to a small cluster of households. They reported around 40 such

Diesel Gensets in the island. Shown below is the indicative map of the island with the 6

Cluster of Households.

Figure 4.a: Indicative Map of the Island A


The table below presents the spread of population in the island

Sitio (Cluster) Name/ Number

Number of Households Number of Shops

Sitio 1 200 Households ~ 14 shops

Sitio 2 50 Households ~ 4 shops

Sitio 3 130 Households ~7 shops



Sitio 6 22 Households ~5 shops Table 4.a: Spread of Population in the Island

Shown below are some of the glimpses from the Island

Figure 4.c: A typical shop in the Island

Figure 4.b: A Household Cluster in the Island


After getting a broad picture of the island, I started my survey. I broke the survey into 2

parts.

Part 1: To understand the electric load in the island and the cost of electricity. For

this, I interviewed around 50% households. The questionnaire used for this survey is

attached as Annexure 1

Part 2: To understand the electricity supply system, the cost of electricity generation

and the electricity distribution system. For this, I interviewed around 10% of Diesel

mini grid operators. The questionnaire is attached as Annexure 2

Figure 4.d: High School in Island A

Figure 4.e: Primary School on island B


4.1.1 Electricity Consumption in the island (Findings from Household survey)

In order to understand the electricity consumption pattern, around 300 households

were surveyed.

In the household survey, we tried to cover equal percentage of households in all the

six clusters. Shops were mostly part of the households.

Figure 4.f: Household Survey Figure 4.g: Typical Light bulb in Households

Figure 4.h: Survey of Shop cum Household Figure 4.i: Survey of Primary School


The data collected from the household survey is attached as Annexure 3. The survey

reported around 38KW of combined electricity load of around 50% of households.

Therefore, I assume a total load of 76KW for the entire Island.

The major findings from the household survey are as follows:

From the data, it is clear that the most common load in the island is Light bulb

(CFL) and the TV (along with DVD player). Few households (mostly Genset

owners) also had Audio Amplifiers, Fans, Laptops and Refrigerators.

The households get around 3.5 hours of electricity every day (6 pm to around

9.30 pm). They pay a fixed price of electricity per gadget, which is mentioned

below:

Light Point (~18 W): 8 Pesos/ night (3.5 to 4 hours)

TV Point with DVD player (~90 W): 20 pesos/ night (3.5 to 4 hours)

Considering the case of light point, it means that for 63 Whs, consumers are

paying 0.15 Euros. This translates into the cost of electricity as 2.3 Euros/ kWh

For lighting requirements beyond 9.30 pm, people use kerosene lanterns. The

cost of kerosene in village is 1.4 Euros/ liter of kerosene

People showed a great aspiration for having Refrigerators and TVs in the near

future

People mentioned that the supply of electricity is very erratic and they also

encounter frequent flickering of lights

People have the willingness to pay for electricity services

The load curve of Island A can therefore be interpreted as figure 4.j

Figure 4.j: Load curve of Island A


4.1.2 Electricity Generation in the Island

In the FGD with Barangay Council, I had got an idea that there are around 40 Diesel

Genset (Mini Grid) operators in the island, each serving to a cluster of households.

With this background information, I started my survey of Diesel Genset operators. I

tried to interview at least one Diesel Genset operator from each cluster.

The major findings are:

The typical capacity of the Genset was 3 KVA to 5 KVA and each serving to a

cluster of households.

All interviewed Mini Grids were running at partial load (typically around 20-

30% load factor)

The Gensets were very old (no make visible on the Genset)

The fuel consumption rate was significantly higher (around 1 liter of Diesel/

kWh of electricity), as mentioned by the operators.

The cost of Diesel was very high in the island compared to mainland. It was

54 Pesos (~1 Euro) / Liter compared to 43 Pesos/ Liter in the mainland city

High cost of generation of electricity, as calculated in the case study below

Frequent breaking down of Genset was a common problem

Running Genset was a burden on mini grid operator

Case Study- Interview with a Mini Grid Operator

Main Points Size of the Genset: 5KVA

Number of customers: 12

Electric Load: 12 houses with 1 light point (18W each); 6 of

these households also had a TV with DVD player DVD

player; So total ~0.9KW load

Fuel Consumption: 3 liters to run the above load for 3.5

hours in night

This means that 3 liters of Diesel is used to produce 3.15

kWh of electricity. This implies that 162 pesos (3.05 Euros)

for 3.15 kWh of electricity.

This translates to the cost of electricity generation to be

around 1 Euro/ kWh. This cost of generation only includes

fuel cost and maintenance; capital cost etc will be extra.


4.1.3 Transmission and Distribution of electricity

It was found that each household had its own wiring network within the house, for

example wiring going to Light point or TV point. This household wiring was

hooked outside the house to the electric line coming from Diesel Genset owner.

Please see the block Diagram below:

Diesel Genset supplying

power to the external

wire link

External Wire

Link

Households hook

their internal wire to

the external wire link

Figure 4.k: Wiring arrangement


One being asked about the electricity thefts, it was reported that neighbors play the role

of police. However, I saw intrusions into the wires at some places.

4.1.4 Other important findings from Island A

In addition to the above mentioned findings, I also had some miscellaneous observations

which shall be crucial for any intervention in the island. They are as follows:

Ruins of a big old Mini Grid in Island A

During my assessment in Island A, I came across some ruins of an Old Mini Grid, which

was established in 1996. I questioned few of the Office Bearers of the local Island

Council. Following are the main findings:

The capacity of Mini Grid was around 75 KVA

Diesel Genset was provided by a local politician

Transmission & Distribution network was laid down by Electric cooperative

Operation of mini grid was handed over to the local community

It was reported that after some time, trained technicians left the village and then

due to lack of proper operation and maintenance, system failed and is lying idle.

Now there still exists

o Broken Diesel Genset and Tranformer. Transformer was 75 KVA and the

Genset was kept in a locked room.

o Around 20 wooden poles (30 feet high) in 3 biggest clusters

o Secondary lines hanging from pole to pole

There might be possibility of using some of the remains of this mini grid.

Interview with a senior official of the concerned Electric Cooperative:

When, I was returning from Island A, I managed to get the appointment of General

Manager of the concerned Electric Cooperative. I asked him about their plans for the

electrification of Island A. He told that there could be 2 possibilities

Solar Home System Program in Island A: There could be the possibility of

distributing Solar Home System to each household in Island A. He mentioned

one such scheme for an another Island which might be replicated in Island A. In

that scheme, Department of Energy provides free SHS to the Electric

Cooperative for the distribution to relevant households. Further Electric

Cooperative distributes such SHSs to households but charges a monthly O&M

fees. One example he gave was 320 Pesos/ month for 75 Wp SHS. Translating

this figure in terms of Energy charges, I found that despite of 100% grant from

government, households were still expected to pay 57 Euro cents/ KWh on

O&M.


Handing over the Island A to QTP (Qualified Third Party): He also pointed out

that there is a possibility of handing over the Island A to QTP (Qualified Third

Party), who will be given franchisee of the Mini Grid operations in the Island for a

certain number of years.

4.2: Status Quo of Electrification in Island B

Island B is around 1 hour boat ride from Island A. It has around 1000 households with

around 5000 population. It is a tourist island and has around 30 resorts. Although my

focus of study was island A, however I also tried to study the electrification scenario for

Island B because of the following reasons:

It has a big Diesel Genset Mini grid operated by a Private Company. This gave me

an opportunity to see the operations by a big private player.

It is famous for Tourism and has a number of Resorts, so it has an unconventional

Electric Load.

It is close to Island A, so there might be some resemblance in the electric load

pattern, and there might be some learnings for Island A

My intention with the study of Island B was only to understand the execution of Mini Grid,

not the household survey. During my survey of the mini grid, I also found a big number

of Island resorts in the Island. The Resorts had significant electric load in the day time

and the roof tops of these resorts also provide a good opportunity of Roof Top PV.

Therefore, I also utilized my visit to Island B for assessing the amount of Solar PV that

can be put on the rooftop of the resorts. Some snapshots of my survey at Island B are

given next.

Figure 4.l: Diesel Mini Grid at Island B


The following are the major findings from the Mini Grid at Island B

The total capacity of Mini Grid is around 1,050 KW comprising of three 350 KVA

Generators. Only one generator is used at a time. All the Generators are of Chinese

Make: Ningbo CSI Power & Machinery Group Co. Ltd

The generation, transmission and distribution is managed by PowerSource

Philippines Inc

It provides 24 hours of electricity

A typical daily load curve is shown in figure below (a day in December 2012) It

shows a peak load of around 180 KW at 1900 hours and Minimum load of 93 KW at

around 0600 hours

It serves around 1000 households, 30 resorts and a Telecom Tower

All consumers were paying electricity at the rate of ~0.55 Euros/ KWh

Figure 4.l: Wirings of Mini Grid at Island B

Figure 4.m: Resort at Island B Figure 4.n: Potential Sites of PV at Island B


The cost of Diesel in the island is `0.9 Euro/ Liter

The transmission of electricity is at 13.2KV

As per the operator of Mini Grid, the distribution losses in the island were to the tune

of around 10%

As per the records, fuel efficieny rate was between 320-350 ml of Diesel/ KWh of

electricity

4.3: Status Quo of Electrification in Island C

Island C is further around 1 hour boat ride from Island B. It has a population of

around 7,000 with fishing as the main source of income. Again, Island C was not

my focus of study and my intention with Island C, was only to assess the working

of its mini grid. The reasons which made interested to study the electrification for

Island B are:

It has a big Diesel Genset Mini Grid where

o Generation of Electricity is managed by a Government Company

(NPC-SPUG)

o Transmission and Distribution is managed by an Electric Cooperative

So, this gave me an opportunity to study a mini grid operated by a

government agency

Like Island A, it has only residential load, so there might be some

resemblance in the electric load pattern, and there might be some learning’s

for Island A

Figure 4.o: Load Profile of Island B


Following are the main findings from the interview with the Mini grid Operator

The generation is done through 2 generators viz 220 KVA and 125 KVA alternately.

220 KVA generator was of USA make: Dale and 125 KVA generator was of

Japanese make

As already mentioned, generation of electricity was done by NPC SPUG, whereas, a

local Electric Cooperative (EC) was responsible for transmission and distribution.

Mini Grid operates from 5 pm to 1 am; The load profile of a typical day is shown in

the figure 4.o below

NPC SPUG sells electricity to EC @ 0.094 Euros/ KWh) and EC sells electricity to

households @ 0.22 Euros/ KWh

Mini Grid operator also mentioned that there are around 15% of households who do

not pay electricity bill

He also mentioned that government had tried to give electricity also in the morning

time, but electric load was not sufficient to run the generator, so morning hours of

operation was discontinued.

The fuel efficiency on 14-12-2012 was around 420 ml of Diesel/ KWh

Figure 4.p: Mini Grid Office at Island C Figure 4.q: Diesel Genset at Island C


So, The Chapter 4 gave us the electric load profiles of selected Islands. These will be

further utilized to develop the configuration of Solar/ Solar-Diesel hybrid system for the

islands

Figure 4.r: Typical Load Profile of Island C


CHAPTER 5 MODELLING OF THE SOLAR-DIESEL HYBRID POWER SYSTEM

In the previous chapter, I explained the findings from my scoping mission to Island A,

Island B and Island C. This scoping mission had helped me to gather the Load profile

(Electric Demand pattern) of these islands. In this chapter, I will utilize the load profile to

model the Solar-Diesel Hybrid Power System for these islands.

By modelling, I mean re-producing different system configurations (power system sizes)

and the associated costs (investment costs and electricity generation costs), based on

different input conditions/ parameters (such as Electric Load, Solar Insolation, Solar

penetration, etc).

There will be 3 outcomes from this modeling:

1. Power System sizing for different input conditions/ parameters

2. Investment Costs and the Levelized Cost of Electricity generations for different

input conditions/ parameters

3. Savings on the GHG emissions

The focal point of my study is Island A for which I will also consider different scenarios

for sensitivity analysis. I will also present the modeling for Island B.

Section 5.1 of this chapter will present my indicative technical configuration of the

proposed Solar-Diesel Hybrid System. For this, I utilized learnings from my recent

training program at SMA Solar Academi, Kassel and my learnings at University of

Oldenburg.

Section 5.2 will present my methodology for developing the excel sheet tool that can

model the Solar-Diesel Hybrid Power System, based on different input parameters. For

developing this tool, I utilized learnings from my University of Oldenburg and my

experience at TERI India.

Based on this methodology, Chapter 6 will present the models for Island A and Island B.


5.1: Indicative Technical Configuration of the proposed Solar-Diesel Hybrid Power System

A Hybrid Power system is that power supply system which utilizes two or more power

sources. This helps in improving the reliability of the system as there is less reliance on

one method of power production. Solar Diesel Hybrid System utilizes solar and Diesel as

the power supply and battery as the power backup. A Power converter system is an

important component of Hybrid System that controls the power supply and power

backup system in the most efficient manner.

The Figure 5.a below shows the indicative configuration of the proposed Solar-Diesel

Hybrid Power system. This is on the lines of SMA Sunny Island System.

The heart of the system is the Power Converter which will form the Grid and will be the

Master of the system. On DC power supply side, it will have connection to the battery

and the Solar PV (through a charge controller). DC side is depicted by blue line. On AC

Power supply side, it is connected to Diesel Genset and it can also be connected to an

external solar inverter. Diesel Genset is connected through a switch which can be made

ON and OFF as per the system requirement. AC side is depicted by red line. The Grid

Loads (Critical) Diesel Genset

Power Converter

(Master)

Solar PV Battery

Charge

Controller

Solar

PV Solar Inverter

Loads (Non Critical)

Figure 5.a: Indicative Technical Configuration of the proposed Hybrid System


formed by the Master is connected to loads. There can be separate connection to

Critical load or Non Critical load where Non Critical Load can be switched OFF or ON as

per the system requirements.

Master will keep an eye on the frequency of the system with the following logic:

If frequency > 50 hz, this means that the Supply is more than Demand

If frequency <50 Hz, this will mean that Demand is more than Supply

According to frequency values, Master will regulate the Diesel Genset and the Loads.

Solar PV will be designed in such a way that it will never be more then demand.

The above system is modular in nature. With any possible future load growth, system

size can be increased by adding extra modules. For example, there can be an additional

power converter in parallel to Master, however this additional module will be

synchronized with the frequency of Master.

5.2: Methodology for Modelling the Hybrid Power System

Section 5.1 presented the indicative technical configuration of the power system. Now

the next step is to model the power system as per the load and other input conditions.

Described below is my methodology for modeling the system.

Step 1: Load Profile

The first step is to gather the hourly load profile. Presented below is the typical load

profile for Island A and Island B (Corresponding excel sheets are attached as Annexure

4 and Annexure 5 respectively. This data is from the scoping mission.

Figure 5.b: Load Curve of Island A


Figure 5.b presents the load curve for Island A, which shows a load of 76 KW between 6

pm and 10 pm. This load is same throughout the year.

Figure 5.c presents the typical load curve for Island B. It shows the maximum load of

180KW between 7 pm to 8 pm and minimum load is around 100 KW between 6 pm to 7

pm.

I received 3 major parameters from Step 1, which I will use later for my modeling of

power system:

Energy requirement for each hour (Eh): Hourly Load (KW) multiplied by 1 hour

is the energy requirement for each hour

Daily Electricity Requirement (Ed): This is calculated by adding hourly energy

requirements (Eh) for a complete day

Maximum Power requirement at any point of the day (Pmax): This is the

highest load value at any hour

It is to be noted that I have not considered any effect of inductive load in my calculations.

Step 2: Solar Insolation

The second step is to consolidate the Solar Insolation data. I got the Average Monthly

Solar Insolation data for Philippines from the report “Assessment of Solar Resources in

Philippines” under the project “Philippine Renewable Energy Project” submitted by

NREL. Figure below presents the data in the form of graph. This data is based on

NREL’s Climatological Solar Radiation (CSR) model.

Figure 5.c Load Profile of Island B


The corresponding excel sheet is attached as Annexure 6

This graph shows that April is the month of maximum solar insolation where insolation

can reach 6KWh/m2/day. December-January is the period of minimum solar insolation.

The average yearly Solar Insolation was around 5.03 KWh/ m2/day

The graph below presents the Hourly Solar Irradiance for a day in April (which

represents the month of maximum sun). This data is based on the information from

HOMER for 12degree North latitude and 122 degree East longitude (coordinated for

Philippines). It is to be noted that there is very little variation on the number of sun hours

in any day of the year.

Figure 5.d Solar Insolation Curve for Philippines

Figure 5.e Hourly Solar Irradiance


As depicted in the graph, the maximum solar irradiance was between 12pm and 1 pm

and it was around 0.75KW/m2.

So, I got 3 major parameters from Step2, which will be utilized in the later section and

they are:

Average Daily Solar Insolation for the month with maximum sun (Sdmax):

This is the daily average value of Solar Insolation for the month of maximum sun.

Once the load requirement is sized, this value will be used to size the Solar PV.

Solar PV is sized for maximum sun because if the Solar PV is sized with any

other lesser Solar Insolation and Solar Fraction in the system is 100%, then Solar

electricity will be wasted in the month of maximum sun. In this case, Sdmax is

6KWh/ m2/ day in the month of April.

Average Daily Solar Insolation for each month (Sd): Once the Solar PV is

sized, this parameter will suggest that how much solar electricity will be

generated in a day of a particular month.

Average Hourly Solar Irradiance for the month with maximum sun (Sh): This

parameter will be utilized to size the battery of the system. Once the Solar PV is

sized, this parameter will help in calculating the amount of solar electricity

generated each hour. Solar electricity which will not be consumed by load, will

have to be absorbed in battery.

Step 3: Sizing of the Solar PV

Once we have Load data and Solar Insolation data, next step is to size the required

Solar PV. For sizing Solar PV, I used the very simple formula as mentioned below:

Solar PV Capacity required (PV) = (Daily Electricity Requirement (Ed)*Solar Fraction)/

(Maximum Energy Yield of PV *Efficiency of solar electricity production)

Daily Electricity Requirement= Ed (from Step 1)

Solar Fraction is the percentage of Solar Electricity in the total Electricity Mix. For

example Solar Fraction of 40% means that if the total electricity production is 100

KWh, then 40KWh was Solar electricity.

Energy yield of PV is the amount of electricity (KWh) that can be generated by 1

KW of Solar PV in a day. A 1KW of Solar PV can generate 1KWh of solar

electricity in an hour if the solar irradiance is 1000 W (1KW) /m2. From Step 2, we

understood that Sdmax is 6KWh/ m2/ day, therefore in a day, 1 KW of PV can

generate 6KWh of electricity. So Maximum Energy Yield of PV is considered

to be 6KWh/ KW

Efficiency of Solar electricity production is considered to be 0.9, considering

losses due to dust, high temperature etc.

Step 4: Sizing of the Power Converter (Master)


Power Converter is the central unit which controls the power generation, energy storage

and interacts with the load. The size of the Master should be equal to the maximum

power requirement of load at any point of time. Therefore Wattage of Power Converter

should be equivalent to Pmax (with a flexibility of 5% over capacity). However, if the

Solar Fraction is zero, we will only utilize Diesel Genset and therefore Power Converter

will not be used.

Further Number of Power Converters= Pmax/ Maximum AC Power of available Power

Converter

Step 5: Sizing of the Diesel Genset

The size of the Diesel Genset should be equal to the maximum power requirement of

load (Pmax) at any point of time. If the Solar fraction is between 0 and 0.5, I have

considered Size of Diesel Genset to be Pmax. In case, solar fraction is 0.5 or more then

I have considered size of Genset as 50% of the Pmax. The size will have a flexibility of

5% over capacity.

It is to be noted that I have not considered any effect of Power Factor in my calculations.

Step 6: Sizing of the Battery Bank

Battery Bank absorbs the electricity from Solar in day time and provides to load during

night time. The size of the battery bank can be calculated by the below mentioned

formula:

Batter Bank= (Electricity to be stored in battery* Autonomy)/ (Battery efficiency* DoD)

Energy to be stored in battery: Step 3 gave us the Size of Solar PV (PV). Step 2

gave us the Sh (hourly solar insolation during the day of maximum sun). Sh will

give us the hourly Yield from PV. Hourly Yield will be: Size of Solar PV * Sh.

For example, if size of Solar PV is 1KW and the Sh at 1pm to 2 pm is 700 W/m2,

then it means that 1KW of PV can generate 0.7KWh during 1 pm to 2 pm.

Similarly, we can get solar electricity for the entire day. This is further matched

with the hourly load requirements. The Solar electricity which is not consumed by

load is fed to the battery. For example, if the solar electricity generation between

1 pm to 2 pm is 0.7KWh and load requirement is 0.4KWh, and then 0.3KWh will

be fed to battery. Similarly, calculation of the entire day is carried out.

The number of Autonomy days is the number of days that battery must support

the load without starting the generator. In our case, if the Solar fraction is 100%,

then the battery can support the entire load for 1 day (in the month of maximum

solar insolation)

Battery Efficiency is considered to be 0.9

DoD (Depth of Discharge of the battery): DoD is the amount of charge that can

be taken out from battery in one cycle. For example, if the battery is 100Ah and

DoD is 70%, then 70Ah can be consumed from the battery in one cycle. In our


modeling DoD is assumed as 70% as the batteries under consideration is AGM

type (Absorbant Glass Mat) type, which provides 5 years life at deep discharges

(around 70-80%)

Step 7: Sizing of Diesel requirement

Step 3 gave us the size of PV. Step 2 gave us the Sd (average daily solar insolation in

each month). Daily Solar Electricity Yield can be calculated as: Size of Solar PV *Sd.

This was further matched with the daily load requirement. The leftover electricity

requirement is expected to be fed by Diesel Genset. Once we have sized the required

electricity units from Diesel Genset, amount of required Diesel will be calculated by using

the thumb rule that 350 ml of Diesel is used to generate 1 KWh of electricity.

Step 8: Sizing of the CO2 emissions

CO2 emission for hybrid system:

Step 7 gave us the daily electricity production from Solar and Diesel. As a rule of thumb,

750 grams of CO2 is produced while generating 1KWh of Diesel electricity and 36 grams

of CO2 is produced while generating 1KWh of solar electricity. In this way, I calculated

the CO2 emissions for generating a particular number of electricity units.

CO2 emission in existing scenario:

Further, during my scoping mission, I understood that Diesel Gensets in Island A were

using around 1 liter of Diesel to produce 1 KWh of electricity, therefore CO2 emissions in

existing scenario is assumed to be 3 times than the normal rate. Hence, it was assumed

that the current rate of CO2 emissions in Island A is 2 Kgs of CO2 per KWh of electricity

generation.

Further, findings from scoping mission to Island B indicated that around 350 ml of Diesel

is used to produce 1 unit of electricity and hence the rate of CO2 emissions in Island B in

existing scenario is considered 750 grams of CO2/ KWh of electricity production.

Savings in CO2 emissions were calculated as: CO2 emissions in the existing scenario –

CO2 emissions for Hybrid System

Step 9: Financial Modeling

In the above eight steps, we were able to size the Power Supply System. Now, in this

step, I will explain my strategy to model the Levelized Cost of electricity generation.

Levelized Cost (LC) of Electricity is generated by the following formula:

LC= ∑ (It+Mt+Ft)/ (1+r)t / ∑ Et(1-SDR)t/(1+r)t where summation and t extends from 1 to n

It= Total Investment cost in year t

Investment cost comprises: Cost of Solar PV+ Cost of Diesel Genset +

Investment cost of Battery+ Investment cost of Power Convertor


o Cost of Solar PV= Required Capacity of Solar PV (from Step 3) * 1500 Euros/

KWp

[Assumptions:

-current International Price of Solar PV is 1.5 USD/ Wp (1.2 Euro/ Wp). In this

study, I have considered 20% extra cost, so I arrived at 1.5 Euro/ Wp

-life of the system is assumed to be 25 years]

o Cost of Diesel Genset= Size of Diesel Genset (from step 5)* 800Euros/ KW

[Assumptions:

- Source: This figure of 800 Euros/KW is based on the report “Best Energy

Practices for remote facilities, Artic Energy Alliance”

-life of the system is assumed to be 15 years, so this investment cost will be

repeated in the 16th year]

o Cost of battery= Size of Battery bank (from step 6)* 135 Euro/ KWh

[Assumptions

-life of battery bank is 5 years, so this investment cost will be repeated in 6th

year, 11th year, 16th year and 21st year and DoD is taken as 70%

- Source: the pricing is based on the current market prices of battery in

Philippines (Motoma AGM Lead Acid batteries (deep cycle)]

o Cost of Power Convertor= Size of Power Convertor (from step 4)* 0.75Euro/

W

[Assumptions:

-life of power converter is 20 years, so this investment cost will be repeated in

20th year

- Source: This figure of 0.75 Euro/ W is based on the offer of SMA Sunny

Island system on the website of TCK Solar Shop, Australia]

Mt is the operation and maintenance (O&M) cost in year t

o O&M of Solar PV= (1% of investment cost)/ year [this figure is based on the

learnings of a similar study of Hybrid System by Center for Engineering

Research in Saudi Arabia]

o O&M of Battery= (1% of investment cost)/ year [this is based on the learnings

of a similar study of Hybrid System by Center for Engineering Research in

Saudi Arabia]

o O&M of Diesel Genset= (2 Euro)/KW/ year [this is based on the learnings of a

similar study of Hybrid System by Center for Engineering Research in Saudi

Arabia]

Ft is the fuel cost in year t

Fuel cost in year t = Diesel requirement in a year t (from Step7) * Diesel cost


Diesel cost was 1 Euro/ Liter in island A, so it is kept same in the analysis

SDR- It is the System Degradation Rate owing to the losses due to ageing of

Solar PV modules and generators. It is considered 0.5% in my model.

r is the Discount rate: Discount rate is a factor by which a future value must be

multiplied in order to obtain the present value. This includes interest rate as well

as other financial risks involved with the investment. In my modeling, I will

consider different discount rates between 6% to 13%

n is the life of the project: In my modeling, I have considered 25 years as the

life of the project

5.3: Resultant Excel Tool for modelling the Hybrid Power System

Making use of the methodology as mentioned in Section 5.1 and 5.2, I have developed

an application (tool) in excel. I had developed this application during my tenure at TERI

(India), however, I strengthened it further during my thesis. A snapshot of the user

interface of the application is presented below.

This application is attached to the load curve which can be changed as per the

requirements.

On the left side (Yellow colour) are the input system parameters such as

Solar Fraction

Figure 5.e: A snapshot of the User Interface of the developed Modeling Tool


Cost of system components (such as Solar PV, Diesel Genset, Power Converter,

Diesel, Cost of Carbon)

Discount Rate

System Degradation Rate

On the basis of input parameters and the load curve, it calculates and displays:

System Sizes (Size of Solar PV, Diesel Genset, Power Converter, Diesel

Requirement)

Initial Investment Cost

Levelized Cost of Electricity

Carbon Credits

The above mentioned methodology and the excel application will be utilized to

model Solar/ Solar-Diesel Hybrid Systems for Island A and Island B. The results of

the modeling are discussed in next Chapter (Chapter 6).


CHAPTER 6: RESULTS OF THE MODELING OF SOLAR-DIESEL HYBRID SYSTEM FOR ISLAND A & ISLAND B

Chapter 5 presented my methodology and my developed excel application for modeling

the power system. This chapter will present the results of applying the above mentioned

methodology for the Island A and Island B.

The focus of my study is Island A, for which I have considered different scenarios . I will

start by describing different load scenarios for Island A

6.1: Different Load Scenarios for Island A

Based on the household survey, I got the electric load pattern in the island A (discussed

in Chapter 4). I utilized this load pattern to size the solar-Diesel hybrid mini grid. Further,

I felt that there can be some changes in the load pattern in the near future and I made 2

two extra scenarios.

Scenario1: System is sized as per the existing load requirement (as per the load curve

generated from the household survey- Annexure 7)

S

c

Scenario2: In my load survey, I had found that there were around 50% households

which did not have TV. However, these households showed a great aspiration of having

TVs in the near future. Further, a few percentage of households also showed the

aspiration of having refrigerators in the near future. Scenario 2 assumes these

aspirations as realities in near future. Scenario 2 also includes the possibility of

extending the mini grid operation till 12 am in the night with basic load such as lights,

TVs and Refrigerators (this feature was also prominent in Island B and Island C where

Island A- Scenario 1

Timings Load Assumption

6 pm to 10 pm 76KW Load as per the

survey results

Table 6.1: Island A- Scenario 1 Load Profile


there was a significant electric load till 12 am). Converting all these possibilities in the

term of wattage, I arrived at the following scenario2. Please see Annexure 7

Island A-Scenario 2


6 pm to 10 pm 170KW Load as per the survey

results + TVs in all the

remaining households+

Refrigerators in 20%

households

10pm to 12 am 145 KW Loads of Lights + TVs +

Refrigerators

Table 6.2: Island A-Scenario 2 Load Profile

Scenario3: In this scenario, I assumed a situation where we can extend the hours of

operation of mini grid in the day time and we can shift some of the existing night time

loads to the day time. Some percentage of loads such as TVs, Audio Players, Cell

Phones, Laptops etc may be shifted to day time. In scenario 3, I have assumed that we

have been able to shift 30% of existing night time load (of Scenario 2) to the day time

(i.e. between 12 pm to 6 pm). Please see Annexure 7.

Island A-Scenario 3


12 pm to 6 pm 51KW 30% of the night time

load shifted to this time

6 pm to 10 pm 117 KW 30% of load of Scenario

2 (during this time) has

been reduced and

shifted to day time

10pm to 12 am 102 KW 30% of load of Scenario

2 (during this time) has

been reduced and

shifted to day time

Table 6.3: Island A- Scenario 3 Load


6.2: Modelling results for Island A-Scenario1

The figure gives the actual load profile of Island A. It shows a load of 76KW between 6

pm to 10 pm.

Now, I put this load profile into my excel sheet application. Shown below is the snapshot

of my results (on the same excel application). On the left hand side (yellow color), is the

input values and on the right side are the results (green color).


The above snapshot shows that for Island A- Scenario1 load profile: for example: When I

input the required Solar Fraction to be 80%, then the Levelized cost of electricity

generation (LC) will be 0.357 Euros/ KWh. It also gives the values for the required

system sizes and also the carbon emission values. Similarly, by changing input

parameters, resultant values can be obtained. Please see Figure 4.g above for the

assumptions and the results.

6.2.1 Sensitivity Analysis for IslandA-Scenario1

Now, in his section, I have done several simulations for analyzing the effect on Levelized

Cost of electricity by varying different system parameters.

Effect of different Solar Fractions (SF) on the Levelized Cost of Electricity (LC)

Figure 6.h below shows the impact of different Solar Fractions on the Levelized Cost of

Electricity Generation (LC). By keeping all the input parameters constant and changing

the Solar Fractions, I got different values for LC. These values are projected in the graph

below.

Following are the main observations from the graph:

Figure 6.g: Modeling Results for Island A -Scenario1

Figure 6.h Levelized Cost of Electricity (LC) versus Solar Fraction for Island A -Scenario1


Levelized Electricity cost (LC) is found to be lower at higher solar penetration

(SF).

It can be observed that LC decreases with increasing SF, however, the cost of

Master (Power Converter) makes lower SF expensive and this results in the peak

of LC at SF=30%. LC at SF =0% was observed to be better then SF=30%,

because Master is no more required and the cost is omitted.

Therefore at lower solar fractions, it will be undesirable to have Master, instead,

Solar PV should be connected to load in a decentralized manner.

Effect of different Discount Rates on the Levelized Cost of Electricity (LC)

The graph below presents the Levelized Cost of Electricity (LC) at different Discount

Rates

There are 3 main observations:

LC increases with increase in Discount rate. The reason is simple; Discount rate

covers the Interest rate and any other financial risk with the investment, so its

higher rate brings up the levelized cost of electricity generation.

There is very little impact of Discount rate on the Levelized Cost of Electricity

(LC) at SF=0% and has the maximum impact on LC at SF=100%. The reason is:

System with SF=0% requires lower investment cost and higher O&M in future,

however, system with SF=100% requires higher investment cost and lower O&M

Figure 6.i: Island A- Scenario1- Levelized Cost (LC) versus Discount Rates at different Solar Fractions (SF)


in future. Higher discount rates will affect the latter more, because high Discount

rate makes the future investment less valuable and current investment more

valuable.

If Discount rates are higher, solar penetration in the system will not be desirable.

In fact, at Discount Rate of 15%, LC at SF=0% (0.446Euro/ KWh) and LC at

SF=100% (0.443 Euro/ KWh) will almost hit each other.

Effect of different Solar PV costs on the Levelized Cost of Electricity

The graph below shows the impact of different PV costs on the Levelized Cost of

Electricity. The discount rate is kept constant at 10%.

One observation is quiet clear. If the cost of Solar PV is between 2-2.5 Euro/ Wp, then

LC at SF=0 is infact the best case and any Solar PV penetration in the system will be

undesirable.

Figure 6.j: LC for different Solar PV costs (at different Solar Fractions and 10% Discount Rate)



Shown below is the Island A - Scenario2 Load curve (Scenario 2 has already been

explained above). It shows the load of 170KW between 6 pm to 10pm and load of

145KW between 10 pm and 12 am.

Now applying the Scenario2-Load profile to my excel application, I got the below

mentioned results.

Figure 6.k: Load curve for Island A-Scenario 2


Applying exactly the same input parameters, the Levelized cost of electricity in scenario

2 is 0.335 Euro/ KWh as compared to 0.357 Euro/ KWh in scenario 1. Thus we see that

as the load grows (almost double as of Scenario 1), the Levelized Cost of

electricity will come down, however, the drop is not significant.


Now, in the this section, I have done several simulations for analyzing the effect on

Levelized Cost of electricity by varying cost of solar, solar fractions and discount rates

rates. Also, I have tried to compare Scenario 2 results with Scenario 1.

Effect of different Solar Fractions (SF) on the Levelized Cost of Electricity (LC) and

the comparison with Scenario1

The graph above indicates that although the pattern of decrease of LC with SF in

Scenario 2 is same as of Scenario 1, however there is an overall decrease of LC at all

SFs in scenario 2. This decrease is almost uniform for all the Solar Fractions, however

the drop is not significant, despite of that fact that Scenario 2 needs more than double

amount of investment.

Figure 6.l: Model Results for Island A Scenario 2

Figure 6m: Levelized Cost vs Solar Fractions (Comparison between Scenario 1 and Scenario 2)



As depicted in the above graph, the pattern of change of LC with Discount Rate is similar

to as of Scenario 1, however, there is one minor observation. In scenario 1, LC at

SF=0% and LC at SF=60% collided at Discount Rate of 12%, whereas, in scenario 2,

they will overlap at Discount Rate of 13% or more. This means that in scenario1, Solar

fraction of 60% wouldn’t have given any benefit over Solar Fraction of 0% at 12%

discount rate. Now, in scenario 2, this cutoff interest rate has slightly improved.

However, this improvement is not significant.

Figure 6.n: Levelized Cost vs Discount Rate for Island A Scenario2



In Scenario 1, we found that for the cost of PV greater than 2 Euro/Wp, solar penetration

was not proving economically desirable (with regard to Levelized Cost of Electricity).

However, in scenario 2, there is an improvement on the cutoff Solar PV price. However,

there is no significant improvement.

Figure 6.o: Levelized Cost vs Solar PV Price for Island A Scenario2



The objective of Scenario 3 is to understand the impact of shifting nighttime load to the

day time. Figure below presents the Load Profile for Island A Scenario 3.

Putting the load profile into my Excel Application yielded the following results

Figure 6.p: Load Profile for Island A-Scenario3


There are 3 very clear observations:

There is a significant reduction in the amount of battery needed in comparison to

scenario 2 (1137 KWh compared to 660 KWh)

There is a reduction in the net initial investment cost (592,690 Euros compared to

476,165 Euros)

The Levelized Cost of Electricity has come down to 0.276Euros/ KWh from 0.335

Euros/ KWh at the same input parameters.



the comparison with Scenario2

There are 3 prominent observations:

o There is a significant reduction in Levelized Cost of electricity by shifting 30% of

nighttime load to day time (more than 5 Euro cents)

Figure 6.r: Levelized Cost vs Solar PV Price for Island A- Scenario3 (and comparison with Scenario2

Figure 6.q: Snapshots of results for Island A-Scenario3


o The peak of LC at SF=30%, which was very prominent in the last 2 scenarios is

absent in this scenario, as there is a significant reduction in the investment cost

of battery. So, any solar penetration is better then Diesel ONLY option.

o There is also a reduction of LC at SF=0 in scenario 3 compared to scenario 2.

The main reason is that with the shifting of night time load to day time, the

maximum power requirement at any point of day has come down; therefore Max

Generator Size required has also come down.


In scenario 2, we found that at 13% Discount Rate, Levelized cost at Solar Fraction of

0% was similar to Solar Fraction of 60%, but in this scenario this situation will come at

much higher discount rates.

This show that even at much higher discount rates, Solar penetration will be desirable in

Scenario 3.

Figure 6.s: Levelized Cost vs Discount rates for Island A Scenario3



In Scenario 2, we found that any solar penetration was not feasible at Euro 2.5 / Wp,

however, in this scenario, solar penetration will be viable at rates even much higher than

Euro 2.5 Euro/Wp

Figure 6.t: Levelized Cost vs Solar PV Price for Island A Scenario3


6.5: Modelling results for Island B

Island B has a bigger Electric Load, with a significant Load in the day time. System

modeling for Island B will also help us in understanding the impact of solar penetration in

the above mentioned scenario.

The graph below presents a typical daily load profile of Island B.

Putting this load profile in my excel application, I got the following results (snapshot)

Figure 6.u: Load Curve for Island B

Figure 6.v: Modeling Results for Island B


With the same input parameters as in island A, the LC has now come down to 0.228

Euros/ KWh at Solar fraction of 80%. Now let us do sensitivity analysis for Island B



the comparison with Island A- Scenario3

It is clearly visible from the graph below that in island B, there is further reduction of

around 5 Euros cents in all solar penetrations.

Although, there is no relation between Load of Island A-Scenario 3 and Load of Island B,

however, this sensitivity shows that with the growth of load in the day time, there will be

significant reduction of LC.


The figure below shows the effect of different Discount Rates on Levelized Cost of

Electricity

Figure 6.w: LC vs SF for Island B and comparison with Island A Scenario 3


.

There are 2 prominent observations:

Any Solar Penetration will be better then SF=0% (ie Diesel ONLY case)

Diesel Only case (SF=0%) has no influence to the changing discount Rates

There is a reduction of upto 40% in the LC between SF=1 and SF=0


Figure 6.x: LC vs Discount Rates for Island B

Figure 6.y: LC vs Solar PV prices for Island B


The graph indicates that solar penetration will be viable even at much higher prices of

Solar PV (even higher than 2.5 Euro/ Wp)


CHAPTER 7: ASSESSMENT OF ROOFTOP PV POTENTIAL IN ISLAND B

During my survey in Island B, I realized that there is a vast potential of utilizing roof tops

of Resorts for PV installation, because of the following reasons:

Resorts have a significant day time load which will match the Solar PV

generation

There is a good amount of Roof tops available on the resorts

The Price of electricity is already very high in island B and Resort owners

showed an inclination of Roof Top Solar in their resorts.

Further, as seen in chapter 6, we found that any penetration of solar in Island B Grid is

much economical then Only Diesel Option. Therefore, there is a strong case of putting

solar on the rooftop of the resorts.

After my discussions with PSPI staff, I did an indicative assessment of the Rooftop Solar

PV potential of the resorts. I was assisted by a PSPI staff, Mr Ian, who helped me in

seeing around all the relevant resorts.

Section 7.1 of this chapter presents my methodology of the roof top PV assessment.

Section 7.2 presents the rough sketches of the relevant resorts. Section 7.3 presents the

possible Solar PV installation on the roof tops of the resorts and the methodology of

calculation.

7.1: Methodology for the Assessment

In my understanding, Roof Top PV installation requires assessment at 3 fronts:

I. Rooftop Area

For its rated performance, Solar PV panels should always be facing South

direction, at an inclination which should be equivalent to the latitude of the place

of installation. There should off course be no hindrance to the sunlight. Rooftops

should therefore be accordingly chosen.

II. Structural strength of Rooftop: The roof of the building should be capable of

handling the mechanical stress of Solar PV. Solar PV installation would also

require mounting structure to be drilled and fastened into the roof, so rooftop

should be accordingly capable.


III. Electrical Connectivity of the Rooftop PV: If the installed PV is feeding into the

grid, then point of connectivity to the Electrical Grid is very important. For

example, if the Solar PV connection is at the end of the electric line, then due to

high internal resistance of the wire at the end of the line, voltage will rise

significantly at the point of connection and therefore the electric current can flow

to some generators thereby destroying them. Other, there should be reverse

current protection.

During my survey, I was only able to do Assessment I, ie assessment of Rooftop

Areas. Along with Mr Ian, I took a round of all the Resorts and collected the following

information:

Rough Sketches of the Roofs of the Resorts

Direction of the rooftops (as per the direction knowledge of Mr Ian, as I did

not have any Compass)

Hindrance from the trees.

It is to be noted that there were few resorts/ resort buildings whose roofs were neither

concrete, nor semi concrete, nor Tin, so we did not include them in our assessment.

Further, there were some resorts who were either surrounded by buildings or dense

trees, so we did not include them either. Section 7.2 presents all the rough sketches

along with the dimensions and directions.

In Section 7.3, I have presented the amount of Solar PV that can be mounted on the

roofs of the resorts and the methodology of calculating the amount of Solar PV that can

be installed.


7.2: Resorts with relevant roof tops for Solar PV installations

Presented below are the Resorts along with their roof tops and the relevant roof top

areas for Solar PV Installation

1)Resort A

I found 3 types of roof tops in the resort. These are shown below. Rooftops are marked

in Alphabets in the following pictures.

I am naming this Roof Top as Roof Top A. There were 3 such cottages in resort A with

the same orientations. The side facing South can be utilized for Solar PV installation.

The relevant area is 48m2(12m*4 m). Since, there were 3 such cottages, so total area of

144 m2. It is to be noted that there were few trees in front these cottages, which can be

trimmed regularly.

Roof Top A= 144 m2


Rooftop B of the resort is the roof of the Kitchen. It has orientation towards South and

has no trees around. This is a perfect location for putting Solar PV. The total relevant

area is 500 m2 (25m*20m)

Roof Top B= 500 m2

Roof Top C is a roof top of another type of Cottage in the resort. The side of the roof top

with orientation towards South is shown above. The relevant area is around 60m2

(10m*6m)

Roof Top C= 60m2

Total Relevant Roof Top Area in the resort is 700 m2 (Rooftop A+ Rooftop B+

Rooftop C)


2) Resort B

Shown below is the rooftop at resort B. I have named it Roof Top E.

The relevant roof top facing south has an area of 100 m2 (30 m *5m – Area of Windows).

There were few trees near the building which can be trimmed regularly.

Total relevant rooftop Area at resort B is 100 m2 (Roof Top E)

3) Resort C

Resort C had 2 relevant roof tops (Roof Top F and Roof Top G). Roof Top G could

be utilized for Solar PV installation


The side of the Roof Top G facing south is 288 m2 (24m*12m). There were few trees

nearby which can be trimmed regularly.

Total relevant rooftop Area at Resort C is 288 m2 (Roof Top G)

4) Resort D

Rooftop H is the rooftop of the entire resort

It is a perfect Area for Solar PV installation with roof facing South and no obstruction

from trees. Total relevant Area is 160 m2 (2 times of 16m*5m)

Total relevant rooftop Area at Resort D is 160 m2 (Roof Top H)

.


5) Resort E

Area of the South facing roof is 80 m2 and there are 2 such buildings, So Total relevant

Area of 160 m2

Total relevant rooftop Area at Resort E is 160 m2 (Roof Top I)

6) Resort F


Total Relevant Rooftop Area in the esort is 150 m2 (Roof Top J)

7) Resort G

Shown below is the rooftop of Resort G, however, it might not be very suitable for Solar

PV installation because rooftop is of Tin and its orientation is not South facing.

8) Resort H

Shown below is the roof top of Resort H, however, its orientation is not fit for Solar PV

installation


7.3: Potential Roof Top Solar PV installation in Island B

In Section 7.2, I found the relevant Roof Top Areas (of Resorts) in Island B. In this

section, I present the amount of Solar PV that can be installed on the roofs.

For calculating amount of Solar PV that can be installed on the roof, I have utilized the

following thumb rule:

# It is to be noted that different Thin film technologies have different Area requirements.

In my calculations, I considered Copper Indium Diselenide. If thin film technology is

Amorphous Silicon, then the area requirement will be even bigger: 18m2/ KWp

Based on the above thumb rule, following table presents the amount of Solar PV that

can be installed on the respective Resorts.

The table presents that for example, resort A’s rooftop can host 100KWp of Mono

Crystalline PV or 78KWp of Polycrystalline PV or 54KWp of Thinfilm PV.

Combining all the resorts, there is a possibility of putting 223KWp of Mono Crystalline

PV OR 173KWp of Polycrystalline PV OR 120KWp of Thinfilm PV in the entire island.

In addition to this, there could also be possibility of putting Solar PV on the grounds or

on the roof tops of some households.

Type of PV technology

Area Requirements

Mono Crystalline PV 7 m2/ KWp

Poly Crystalline PV 9 m2/ KWp

Thin film PV 13 m2/ KWp Table 7.a: Area requirement of different Solar PV technologies

A

B

C

D

E

F


Chapter 8: Conclusions

I would like to close my report with the following conclusions:

General:

There is a vast scope of solarizing existing Diesel Mini Grids/ establishing stand

alone Solar Mini Grids in Philippines [400 MW and above]

Government is pumping significant subsidies on Diesel Mini Grids and it is a

huge burden

The policies related to Off grid Renewable Energy are unclear in Philippines,

however, the same has a vast scope in the country

Specific to Island A:

In the existing scenario, where several small Diesel Gensets are serving to

several small clusters of households, people are paying a very high cost of

electricity (~2 Euros/ KWh); Also the cost of electricity generation is very high to

individual Genset owner (~1 Euro/ KWh)

I had then proposed a Solar-Diesel Hybrid Mini Grid where a Central Power

Converter (Master Inverter on the lines of SMA Sunny Island) plays the role of

Master with power inputs from Solar, Diesel and Battery BackUp. Following were the

main findings

In Scenario 1 [Existing load pattern of 76 KW between 6 pm to 10 pm], Levelized

electricity cost (LC) was observed to be lower at higher solar fraction /

penetration (SF). It was observed that LC decreases with increasing SF,

however, high cost of Master (Power Converter) makes lower SF expensive and

this resulted in a peak of LC at SF=30%. LC at SF =0% was observed to be

better then SF=30%, because Master is no more required and the cost is

omitted.

In Scenario 1, as the Discount rate increases from 6% to 13%, viability of higher

solar penetrations (SF) was observed to be decreasing. At higher discount rates

(>13%), SF=0% (Diesel only option) was found to be more viable.

In Scenario 2 (where the existing load is assumed to get increased at the same

night timings), it was observed that the Levelized cost of Electricity will come

down only slightly as compared to Scenario 1, however, the drop is not

significant. This is despite of the fact that investment cost will become almost

double in Scenario2.


For Scenario 1 and Scenario 2, if the solar penetration is low, then it might be

undesirable to have Central Power converter (Master), instead Solar PV should

be directly connected to the load in a decentralized manner.

In both Scenario 1 and Scenario 2, if the cost of Solar PV is higher than 2.5 Euro/

Wp, then any solar penetration will be undesirable.

Note: It is to be noted that in the entire analysis, the cost of battery is taken to be

135Euro/ KWh with 70% DoD. This is as per the market prices in Philippines for

AGM Lead Acid batteries. If the cost of batteries is higher, then solar penetration

in Island A-Scenario 1 and Scenario 2 will be undesirable (because of big night

time loads and large battery bank requirements).

In Scenario 3 (where 30% of night time load (Scenario 2) is assumed to be

shifted to day time), it was observed that LC will drop by around 5-6 Euro cents/

KWh as compared to Scenario 2. Further, it was observed that in scenario3, any

solar penetration will be desirable then Diesel ONLY option.

In Scenario 3, solar penetration will be viable even at higher discount rates (13%)

It will be therefore recommended to shift the load scenario on the lines of

Scenario 3.

Specific to Island B

Applying the same model to Island B, it was observed that LC will decrease with

increasing Solar Fraction and any solar penetration will give better LC as

compared to Diesel ONLY option.

Although there is no direct relation between Island A and Island B, however

Island B has a significant load in the day time compared to Island A-Scenario 3.

While comparing the two, Island B shows more drop in LC compared to Island A-

Scenario3. This means that as the load will grow in day time, LC will decrease

significantly.

It was also observed that there is a strong case of putting Solar PV on the

rooftops of Island Resorts. An estimated 173 KWp of Polycrytalline Solar PV

can be put on the roof tops of the selected Island Resorts. Open grounds in

island B provides further opportunity of Solar PV installation in the island.


Specific to Island C

Visit to Island C, was utilized to understand the execution of Diesel Mini Grids by

NPC-SPUG and it also helped in developing Scenarios for Island A. No modeling

was done for Island C.

ANNEXURES

Annexure 1

There were 2 different forms used for household survey (one developed by me

and the other developed by PSPI)

Household Survey form (No 1)

Location: _______________________________________________________________

(Sitio) (Barangay) (Municipality) (Province)

I. SOCIO-ECONOMIC DATA


1. Respondent’s Identification:

1.1. Name of Respondent: ______________________________________________________

(Last) (First)

1.2. Age: _______

1.3. Sex: Male Female

1.4. Relationship to Household Head (Please check):

Household Head Brother/Sister

Spouse Son/Daughter in-law

Child Father/Mother in-law

Parent Others (pls. specify) ___________________

2. Household Head Data:

2.1 Name of Household Head: __________________________________________________

(Last) (First)

2.2 Age: _______

2.3 Sex: Male Female

2.4 Occupation of Household head (Please check):

Government official/ Laborer/unskilled worker

employee Farmer

Private employee Fisherman

Professional practitioner Businessman/Trader

Retired/pensioner Overseas worker

Skilled worker Others (pls. specify) ___________________

3. Household Size: _______ (Number of household members living in your house at least 6

months within a year).

4. Housing conditions

4.1 Type of home ownership (Please check):

Owned Rent for free

Rented Others (pls. specify) ___________________


4.2 Main type of housing materials (Please check):

Wood Bamboo/Sawali/Cogon

Concrete Others (pls. specify) ___________________

5. Income of the family (is the income regular)

6. Expenditure of the family

Expenditure on electricity

Expenditure on rest

II. ENERGY INFORMATION

1. Sources of Energy for Lighting and other uses

1.1 What are your sources of energy for lighting and operating home appliances? (Please

check, household can have more than one sources)

Kerosene

Drycell/Battery

Car battery (powered by some minigrid or Genset)

Personal Diesel Genset

Connection to Diesel Genset MiniGrid

Gas Light

Solar system

1.2 What are the uses of the sources of energy mentioned above? (Appliance Details)

Type of

Appliance

Wattage Time of

day used

Is it used daily

(D) at this time

or randomly

(R)

If (R ), then can

its usage be

shifted to day

time

Any major

variation in

the usage

pattern in

some

particular

time of year

(for example

during fish

migration)

Powered

by which

energy

source

(refer

1.1)

Light Bulb1

Light Bulb2

Light Bulb3

B&W TV

Colored TV

VHS Player


VCD Player

Karaoke

Electric Fan

Refrigerator

Water pumps

Others, specify

2. Details of Energy Sources for Lighting or electrical appliances

S.No

Type of Energy

Source

Cost per

purchase

Frequency of

purchase/charge

per month for

lighting/ other

electricity use

Cost per

year

2.1 Kerosene P_____ per

liter

2.2 Drycell batteries P_____ per

pc.

Cont..

S.No

Type of

Energy

Sources

(within the

barangay,

town, others-

specify)

Distance

(Kilometer)

Mode of

Transport (by

foot,

motorcycle,

jeepney, banca,

walk, animal,

etc.)

Cost of

Round

trip fare,

if any

2.1 Kerosene

2.2 Drycell

batteries

2.3 Car Battery


2.3.1 What is the capacity of the battery (villagers might know this with the number of

plates in the battery and it is possible that I might not get this answer or we can see by

our own)

2.3.2 Price of the battery _______________

2.3.3 Where it is charged ______________

2.3.4 How frequently battery is charged ___________________

2.3.5 Money spent on charging each time ___________________

2.4 Personal Diesel Genset

2.4.1 What is the capacity of Diesel Genset

2.4.2 What is the initial cost

2.4.3 What is the operational cost (cost of Diesel)

2.4.4 Any problems

2.5 Diesel Generator Set based Mini Grid

2.5.1 Who owns the generator set? (Please check)

Private Barangay Others, specify

______________________

2.5.2 Total number of households connected to the same Genset? _____________ households

2.5.3 How is your household charged? (Please check)

Monthly fixed rate, go to 2.5.4

Based on number of lights/bulbs or appliances, go to 2.5.6

2.5.4 How much is the monthly rate? P _____________

2.5.6 How much is the charge per light/bulb (Indicate the cost opposite each bulb)

10 Watts P __________ 40 Watts P __________

20 Watts P __________ Others, specify _________ P __________

2.5.7 How much is the charge per appliance? (Indicate the cost opposite each appliance)

B&W TV P __________ VCD P __________

Karaoke P __________ VHS P __________

Others, specify ____________________ P __________

2.5.8 How long have you been connected to mini grid


2.5.9 Do you experience any problem with electricity supply (power cuts or fluctuations?)

2.5.10 Are you OK with the tariff

2.6 Gas Light

2.6.1 What is the initial cost

2.6.2 What is the refueling cost

2.6.3 How long one charge lasts

2.7 Solar System (Do you have Solar Home System in your house)

2.7.1 What are the electricity services (try to get wattage)

Light (Is it CFL/ LED) __________________________________

Fan ______________________________________________

Mobile Charger ________________________

Any idea on the capacity of solar panel (otherwise we may check it)

________

Any idea on the battery size ( otherwise we may check it)

_______________

2.7.2 What are the costs and constraints?

Did you pay upfront cost

Did you pay in installments and then what was the cost and scheme

How often do you encounter an technical problems

3 Any other services

Which appliances do you want to run and at what timings

Any flexibility in running these appliances during other time

Do you use/ need electricity for agricultural activities outside the

household/establishment?

For example water pumps

At which hours ______________________

Do you need this at a fixed time, or it can be done at random in the day time


III. PREFERENCE, CAPABILITY AND WILLINGNESS TO PAY FOR

ELECTRICITY

1.1 What time of the day do you think electricity is most needed? (Please check)

Whole day (24 hrs.) From 6pm to 6am

From 6pm until 10pm Others, pls. specify __________________

1.2 What term of payment do you prefer? (Please check)

Weekly Quarterly (every 3 months)

Monthly Others, pls. specify __________________

Twice a month

1.3 What form of payment do you prefer? (Please check)

Cash

In kind

Others, pls. specify ________________

1.4 Based on your estimates, your household spends about P ____________ per month of

lighting. If electricity were to be improved, how much more are you willing to pay per

month?

P ____________

1.5 Which of the following electrical appliances do you plan to acquire within the next 6

months if electricity would be improved? (Please check)

Radio/Cassette Refrigerator

TV black/white Electric flat iron

TV colored Computer

Electric fan Electric machinery or tools

Washing machine Others, pls. specify ____________________

NOTES:

..


Household Survey (No 2)


Annexure 2

Questionnaire for Mini-Grid operator

I. Technical Questions

a) Supply side (Genset)

What are the sizes (KW/ KVA) of Diesel Gensets used in the mini-grid and what is the aggregated capacity of the mini-grid? [If possible, what are the specifications and brand of Genset]

How many hours do Gensets work in a day? How many units of electricity is produced (daily production pattern-

hour wise in different season) What is the fuel consumption rate?


What are the constraints on the operation of Diesel Genset (What are the typical failures of the Diesel Gensets?)

How many times operation and maintenance is required?

b) Demand side (Consumers and Loads) How many consumers does the mini-grid has? What are the typical

electricity loads (Wattage requirements) of the consumers? What are the types of main loads (residential- lights, fans, motors etc)? If possible, we would like to know the pattern of load- for example load X

in all households runs during theses Y hours

Any forecast for future developments in load?

c) Distribution network

What is the typical length of distribution network? What are the specifications of wires? [ mini-grid operator can atleast give some idea]

What is the operating voltage and frequency of the system and what are their typical deviations?

How is electricity metering done? Any idea on distribution losses

II. Financial Questions

d) Supply side (Genset) What is the cost of Diesel Genset?

What is the cost of Diesel (including and not including transportation)? What is the cost of routinely maintenance? What is the cost of electricity production (cost per unit of electricity

production)? What is the availability of free space for Solar PV for the operator?

Any idea on Solar potential in that area (operator might not have this information, but he/ she can give a general idea ofthe local climate)

e) Demand side (consumers) How does the operator charge consumers for electricity (Is there fee for

service model or fixed charges)?

Is there a separate price for no commercial on the island) loads operating at different time of the day?

Any problems in collecting fees from consumers? What is the percentage of people not paying the bill and what does operator do in that situation?

Any problem of electricity thefts in the grid and what does operator do in that situation?

Any financial support from the government? What is the framework ofthat support?

What are the competitions tothe Diesel mini-grid? If there are competitors, what do they offer and how do they operate?

III. General Questions


a) How is Diesel transported to the village and what is the typical distance from refuelling station?

b) What are the commercial activities in the village c) Do you see any possibility of charging different rates residential and

commercial loads or loads operating at different time of the day d) Any plan of the operator to extend the mini-grid/ any forecast for increase in

the consumer load

Survey Form for the battery charging station operator

I. What are the typical battery capacities in the village II. What is the price for charging

III. What are the costs of new batteries IV. How often a customer brings the battery for charging V. How long does the battery lasts

VI. What are the problems with Diesel supply for Genset VII. What is the capacity and cost of Diesel Genset

VIII. What is the cost of Diesel fuel

Annexure 3 Result of Household Survey (Electric Load)


Unconnected Households


Annexure 4

Load Profile of Island A


Annexure 5

Load Profile of Island B (Typical Day)


Annexure 6

Solar Insolation Data for Philippines

Daily Average Solar Insolation

data for each Month in

Philippines

Hourly Solar Insolation data for

the month of maximum sun


Annexure 7

Scenario 1 Load

Rounding it UP, Total Load of Scenario 1 is 76 KW

Scenario 2 Load

Rounding the values, I assumed Scenario 2 : 6 pm to 10 pm is 170 KW and 10

pm to 12 am is 145 KW


Scenario 3 Load

Rounding the values, I assumed Scenario 3 : 12 pm to 6 pm is 51 KW & 6 pm to

10 pm is 117 KW & 10 pm to 12 am is 102 KW


REFERENCES

For executing my Master thesis, I utilized information from the following references:

1) International Energy Agency, 2012 (www.iea.org)

2) Hybrid Mini grids for rural Electrification , Alliance for Rural Electrification, 2010

(www.ruralelec.org)

3) Missionary Electrification Development Plan, 2012, Department of Energy

Philippines

4) Geographic, Technological and Economic Analysis of isolated Diesel grids by

Paul Bertheau, year 2012

5) University of Philippines, 2010

6) Diesel Service and Supply Inc, USA (www.dieselserviceandsupply.com)

7) Analysis of Renewable Energy Retrofit Options to Existing Diesel Mini grids ,

Asia Pacific Economic Cooperations

8) Hybrid System by Center for Engineering Research, Saudi Arabia

9) Best Energy Practices for remote facilities, Artic Energy Alliance

10) Access Project, UNDP

11) ESMAP Project, World Bank

12) Report of Department of Energy, Philippines

13) US- EIA

14) Reports from NPC-SPUG

15) Homer

16) Training at SMA Solar Academi

17) Interviews with officials of Power Source Philippines Inc

18) Interviews with GIZ officials

19) Interviews with Department of Energy Officials

20) Interview with Mr Jiwan Acharya, Asian Development Bank

21) Wikipedia

22) World Atlas

23) Barangay Council of Island A

24) Barangay Council of Island C

25) Mr Freddy, Owner of resort A

http://www.ruralelec.org/

hybrid (solar pv-diesel) mini grids in philippines - giz.de

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