Human PopulationsBrita Christensen

Carlye Richter

Case StudyEvery year, India adds more people to

the world’s population than any other country

In 2005, India had 1.1 billion people

By 2050 India is estimated to have a population of 1.63 billion

A quarter of the population is already in poverty, with no food, homes, education, and jobs… how can the government fix the problem?

Case Study…

The large population growth is India is due to lack of birth control and other contraceptives/sterilization

In 2000, the Indian government let each state choose how to handle the situation

Some states chose to focus on social justice while others adopted a more direct, interventionist policy

Population Growth

Every second 4/5 children are born somewhere on Earth

In that same second, 2 people die

This makes a net gain of 2.3 million more humans per second in the world

Global population will double in 58 years

Most numerous vertebrate species

Affects

Overpopulation will cause resource depletion and environmental degradation

Human ingenuity, technology, and enterprise can extend the world carrying capacity and allow us to overcome problems

Human populations recently increased

10,000 years ago the total world population was only a few million

After the agricultural revolution, population was able to grow very slowly

Population was held in check by disease and famine

1600’s

Human populations increased rapidly

Sailing and navigating skills stimulated commerce and communication between nations

Agricultural developments, sources of power, healthcare and hygiene

Malthus and MarxMalthus argued that human

population increases exponentially and food production either remains stable or increases slowlyThe only way to stabilize humans

populations are to keep them in check with disease and famine

Followers are neo-Malthusians

Marx argued that in order to slow population growth and get rid of crime, starvation, and disease is social justiceFollowers are neo-Marxians

Technology

Scientific progress has allowed food supply to increase faster than population growth

Population growth is due to technology in agricultural productivity, engineering, information technology, commerce, medicine, sanitation, and availability of easily acquired natural resources

DemographyDemos = people

Graphos = to write or to measure

Tells vital statistics about people such as births, deaths, where they live and total population size

Demography facts

U.S. Census Bureau estimated 6.4 billion people in the world in 2005

Highest populations growths occur at “hot spots”

Wealthier countries tend to have shrinking populations because many choose to have few or no children and life expectancy is longer

Demography facts…

Russia is declining by nearly 1 million people per year because of a collapsing economy, hyperinflation, crime, corruption, and despair

African countries experience a population decrease because of AIDS

Fertility

Crude birth rate- the number of births in a year per thousand persons

Total fertility rate- number of children born to an average woman in a population during her entire reproductive life

Zero population growth- occurs when births plus immigration in a population just equal deaths plus emigrations

China

One-child-per-family policy decreased the fertility rate from 6 in 1970 to 1.8 in 1990Resulted in abortions, forced sterilizations, and

infanticide

May not be enough workers to maintain the army, sustain the economy, or support retirees when their parents reach old age

Hong Kong has the lowest birth rate in the world with a fertility rate of only .9

Mortality

Crude death rates- deaths per thousand persons in any given year

Natural increase- crude death rate subtracted from crude birth rate

Total growth rate- includes immigration, emigration, births, and deaths

Life Span/ Life Expectancy

Life span- the oldest age to which a species is known to survive

Life expectancy- the average age that a newborn infant can expect to attain in any given societyRose from 40 to 67 years over the past century

Declining mortality, not rising fertility is the primary cause of population growth

Life Expectancy

Longer lives were due to better nutrition, improved sanitation, clean water, and education

There is a good correlation between annual income and life expectancy up to $4,000 per person

Some believe life expectancy is approaching a plateau

Demographics

A population that is growing rapidly by natural increase has more young people

Countries with a stable population has the same number in each age group

Dependency ratio- the number of nonworking compared to working individuals in a population Problem for both rapidly and

slowly growing countries

Emigration and Immigration

More-developed regions are expected to gain 2 million immigrants per year for the next 50 years.

Citizens of many nations argue that immigrants take a away jobs, overload social services, and ignore established rules of behavior or social values.

In some nations, geopolitical demographic policy encourages/forces internal mass migration.

Ex: Indonesia and China

Population Growth: Opposing Factors

Pronatalist pressures

Children =source of pleasure, pride and comfort.

They can support their elders where there is no social security system.

They can help by providing additional income, and by doing chores.

In some regions, children give families status, and provide parents with a sense of accomplishment.

Factors Discouraging Reproduction

Higher education and personal freedoms for women

Education and socioeconomic status are typically inversely related to fertility in wealthier nations.

In developing countries: the two are positively correlated, fertility is likely to increase as educational levels and socioeconomic status rise (more money = more children because children aren’t as expensive)

Ex: America’s population relative to WWII, the Great Depression, and the Baby Boom.

Could we have a birth dearth?

Some nations birth rates have fallen below replacement levels.

Most European countries suffer from this deficit, with negative rates of population increase.

Negative effects of this could include: lack of soldiers, lack of works, and not enough workers and taxpayers to contribute to the social system.

Possible reasons for the decrease are: Toxins and endocrine hormone disrupters in our environment interfere with sperm production. (Phthalates in plastics)

Demographic Transition

Demographic Transition Cont’d…

There are four necessary conditions for demographic transition:

1. improved standard of living

Increased confidence that children will survive to maturity

Improved social status of women

Increased availability and use of birth control

Some nations have already succeeded in controlling population

Factors contributing to stabilizing populations

1. growing prosperity and social reforms

2. available technology

3. less developed countries have historic patterns to follow

4. modern communications

People are still pessimistic…

Lester Brown: poorer countries are caught in a demographic trap that prevents them from escaping from the middle phase of the demographic transition.

To escape they need to reduce population growth ASAP.

Social Justice & Population

Social justice is believed to be the key to successful demographic transitions.

Violence, poverty, hunger, environmental degradation and population are all results of a lack of social justice, not a lack of resources.

The relationship between rich and poor countries goes back to colonial powers vs. colonies.

Rather than the maximum number of people, we should be thinking in terms of the optimum number of people.

Women’s Rights Affect Fertility

The best way to ensure a child’s survival is to ensure the rights of mothers.

Land reform, political rights, opportunities to earn her own income and improved health status of women are better indicators of total fertility and family welfare that gross national product.

High income does not always mean better welfare for kids

Factors affecting fertility

High mortality rates typically lead parents to having more children to ensure that some survive

Better nutrition, improved health care, oral therapy, immunization have brought about reductions in mortality rates, which have in turn led to falling birth rates.

Saving 5 million children each year from easily preventable communicable diseases would avoid 20 or 30 million extra births.

Family Planning and Fertility Control

Family planning implies that parents will control their reproductive lives

Fertility control dates back to our hunting and gathering ancestors

San Women effectively space the amount of children they have

Some older techniques of fertility control: folk medicines, abstinence, abortion, infanticide.

Current family planning methods

Major methods of birth control:

1. avoidance of sex during fertile periods

2. mechanical barriers that prevent contact between sperm and egg

3. surgical methods that prevent release of sperm/egg

4. chemicals that prevent maturation of sperm or eggs or implantation of the embryo in the uterus

5. physical barriers to implantations

6. abortions

New Developments in Family Planning

Five new birth control products approved by the FDA

1. Ensure

2. Mirena

3. Lunelle

4. NuvaRing

5. Ortho Evra

The Future of Human Populations

There are variations of where the population will land in the next century

Optimistic/low prediction: 7 billion in 2050 to <6 billion by 2150.

Medium prediction: reaches 8.9 billion in 2050 and stabilizes

Pessimistic prediction: constant growth to 25 billion by 2150

Did you know…?

While many couples use family techniques, 100 million couples say they’d like to but do not have access to them?

The United Nations

The U.S is becoming increasingly isolated in its population policies

1994 Cairo, Egypt meeting to discuss women’s rights

U.S. has been withdrawing from population initiatives starting around 2000.

Didn’t reaffirm ICPD (International Conference on Population and Development)

President Bush didn’t release $34 million appropriated by Congress for UN population fund

The United Nations continued…

Money denied by President Bush could have prevented 2 million unwanted pregnancies, 800,000 abortions, 4,700 maternal deaths, 60,000 cases of serious maternal illness and 77,000 + infant and child deaths.

UNFPA is the world’s largest international source of funding for population and reproductive health programs

So what have we learned?

Big societal changes are needed to make family planning work

1. Improved social, educational, and economic status form women

2. Improved status for children (fewer children are born)

3. Acceptance of calculated choice as a valid element in life in general and in fertility in particular

4. Social security and political stability that give people the means and the confidence to plan for the future

5. Knowledge, availability, and use of effective and acceptable means of birth control.