HSMAI New York 2013 Outlook

Business Intelligence

Tim Hart EVP

11/14/2012

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TravelClick gathers a vast amount of market intelligence.

Data Set We gather over

10 billion rates per month from over hundreds of sources

We have

100% of reservations made through the four major GDS

We receive daily

future demand data from major brands for a 365-day horizon

We gather rates from more than 356 sources: • 196 hotel brand.com sites • 160 online travel agencies • GDS

We receive every booking from: • Sabre • Galileo • Worldspan • Amadeus

We receive all reservations and group sales blocks from: • Marriott • Hilton • Hyatt • Intercontinental • Starwood • Wyndham* • La Quinta*

Future Historical Frequency Daily 3x/Week 2x/Week

• Four Seasons • Gaylord • Omni • Kimpton • Loews • Mandarin

Oriental

Rate Agency Demand

Demand participation continues to grow, from large and small brands to independent hotels.

3 Note: Wyndham, LaQuinta, SAX, Destination, Allerton, and Dolce are in the certification process; with targeted completion in Q4 of 2012.

Founding Partners Brands Independent

*

* NAFS Only

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Go-deep into details

Guided analytics and filtering allow users

to view data from different angles

Tailored to specific roles Answers questions for key roles within your

properties

All data in one place

In 2013, rate, agency, and demand data

integrated on a single platform

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Market Outlook

5

6

Nationally, business on the books for the coming 12 months is up 1% over same time last year.

-12.0%

-6.0%

0.0%

6.0%

12.0%

18.0%

24.0%

-8,000,000

-4,000,000

0

4,000,000

8,000,000

12,000,000

16,000,000

Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct

Var %

to LY

Room

Nig

hts

Top 25 North American Markets

Group Transient Var % to LY Full Yr Var %

7

New York’s outlook is slightly better, with committed room nights for the coming year up 3.5%.

-25.0%

-15.0%

-5.0%

5.0%

15.0%

25.0%

35.0%

45.0%

55.0%

65.0%

75.0%

-400,000

-200,000

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct

Var %

to LY

Room

Nig

hts

New York

Group Transient Var % to LY Full Yr Var %

8

Nationally, transient occupancy and ADR is up, but group occupancy has fallen behind same time last year and group ADR growth has slowed.

Group

Room Nights ADR

-0.9% +1.1%

Transient Business

+5.3% +5.4%

Transient Leisure

+6.7% +4.5%

Year over year variance % to same time last year for demand on the books for future 12 months in top 25 North American markets

Negotiated, Retail

Discount, Qualified, Wholesale

9

The outlook by segment for New York is similar, but with group down in both occupancy and ADR.

Group

Transient Business

Transient Leisure

Room Nights ADR

-0.9% +1.1%

+5.3% +5.4%

+6.7% +4.5%

Room Nights ADR

-0.4% -2.4%

+6.7% +1.8%

+8.5% +4.3%

Top 25 Markets New York

The recent pace of new group business sold has been slow, resulting in the weaker group position heading into 2013.

On The Books Recent Pace Top 25 Markets -0.9% -10.3% New York -0.4% -25.0%

On the Books Group room nights committed for next 12 months versus same time last year

Recent Pace New group sales (room nights committed) in last 30 days versus same period last year

10

Year over Year Variance in Group Room Nights – Next 12 Months

11

While recent new group sales for 2013 are down for all months, the outlook for late summer is the weakest.

-60.0%

-50.0%

-40.0%

-30.0%

-20.0%

-10.0%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct

New York Group New Sales (past 30 days) and On the Books Year over Year Variance

OTB Var % New Sales Var % Avg OTB Var% Avg New Sales Var %

12

Nationally, group sales pace has been trending behind last year’s pace for each quarter in our horizon.

-50.00%

-40.00%

-30.00%

-20.00%

-10.00%

0.00%

10.00%

OTB Pace

Q4 2012

Aug

Sept

Oct

Nov -20.00%

-15.00%

-10.00%

-5.00%

0.00%

5.00%

OTB Pace

Q1 2013

Aug

Sept

Oct

Nov

-20.00% -15.00% -10.00%

-5.00% 0.00% 5.00%

10.00%

OTB Pace

Q2 2013

Aug

Sept

Oct

Nov -25.00%

-20.00%

-15.00%

-10.00%

-5.00%

0.00%

OTB Pace

Q3 2013

Aug

Sept

Oct

Nov

-10.0%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar

Business Occ ADR

-10.0%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar

Leisure

13

New York transient advance booking pace is relatively strong, particularly in the leisure segment.

14

The transient booking window has been lengthening over the course of 2012, perhaps distorting year over year comparisons in demand growth.

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

2012-01 2012-02 2012-03 2012-04 2012-05 2012-06 2012-07 2012-08 2012-09 2012-10

Average Booking Lead Time New York, Transient

Adv Bkg Days LY Adv Bkg Days

15

Public retail pricing heading into the summer of 2013 has declined, perhaps as the group outlook began to deteriorate.

$150

$200

$250

$300

$350

$400

1/6/

2013

1/13

/201

3

1/20

/201

3

1/27

/201

3

2/3/

2013

2/10

/201

3

2/17

/201

3

2/24

/201

3

3/3/

2013

3/10

/201

3

3/17

/201

3

3/24

/201

3

3/31

/201

3

4/7/

2013

4/14

/201

3

4/21

/201

3

4/28

/201

3

5/5/

2013

5/12

/201

3

5/19

/201

3

5/26

/201

3

6/2/

2013

6/9/

2013

6/16

/201

3

6/23

/201

3

6/30

/201

3

Average Public Rates – New York OTA, WEB, GDS Channels

8/1/2012 9/1/2012 10/1/2012

Channel Distribution

16

17

Transient channel mix has continued its shift online, with Brand.com and OTA’s increasing their share of transient bookings over the last year.

WEB, 26%

CRS, 19% DIR,

19%

GDS, 19%

OTA, 16%

Channel TY Mix LY Mix Var %

WEB (Brand.com) 26.3% 24.3% 8.4%

CRS (Voice) 18.7% 18.9% -0.9%

DIR (Property) 19.2% 22.2% -13.4%

GDS 19.5% 19.7% -1.4%

OTA 16.3% 14.9% 9.4%

Channel Share of Transient Segment New York Q3, 2012

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Expedia and its family of sites continue to lead in OTA channel share. Priceline has significant share as well.

ORB

TRV

OTA-OTH

TVW

PRL

HOT

HCM

EXP

-50.0% -40.0% -30.0% -20.0% -10.0%

0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0%

Var % to LY Var% All

Room Nights – Var% to Last Year Q3, 2012 - New York

Booking.com?

19

Discounts off retail rates vary significantly by OTA. Opaque sites naturally offer the deepest discounts.

$0.00

$50.00

$100.00

$150.00

$200.00

$250.00

$300.00 New York

ADR Retail ADR

20

But OTA discounts are narrowing. OTA rate growth has exceeded retail rate growth, nationally and in New York as well.

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

All Mkts New York

ADR Variance % to Last Year Q3, 2012

OTA Retail

21

Summary Thoughts on 2013…

Uncertainty… (Fiscal Cliff, Overall Economy)

Slow group demand pace = less group base heading into 2013

Lowered demand expectations showing up in advance pricing, hindering ADR growth

Tim Hart November 14, 2012 This Presentation is Online: www.TravelClick.com

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