how will dartmouth still be relevant in 20 years?
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How Will Dartmouth Still be Relevant in 20 years?. September 4 th , 2011. Josh Jarrett, Deputy Director. Source: Seattle Times , Tuesday, January 26, 2010. My frame of reference. Motivations: Increased access to opportunity Wicked problems Impatient actors Enlightened self interest. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
How Will Dartmouth Still be Relevant in 20 years?Josh Jarrett, Deputy Director September 4th, 2011
Source: Seattle Times, Tuesday, January 26, 2010
© 2011 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |
Motivations:• Increased access to
opportunity• Wicked problems• Impatient actors• Enlightened self interest
My frame of reference
Private sector:• Strategy and management
consultant• Software entrepreneur• MBA
Nonprofit sector:• Consultant to National Park
Service, charter schools, and health services
• Foundation program officer – innovative technology and delivery in postsecondary ed
Class of 2028 Class of 2031 Class of 2032
© 2011 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |
Higher ed on the edge of major transformation?
The Gates Foundation’s postsecondary work
The changing learner
Five trends in technology and learning I'm watching
3
© 2011 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |
Higher ed on the edge of major transformation?
The Gates Foundation’s postsecondary work
The changing learner
Five trends in technology and learning I'm watching
© 2011 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |
Predictions for higher ed in 2020
More students Higher completion rates Lower cost per student Smaller chunks of learning More, measurable indicators of learning
© 2011 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |
Four Challenges for the Next Decade
Completion challenge Middle skill job demand Stagnant ~40% AA+
attainment levels Low completion rates
Demographic challenge Increasing diversity Low academic readiness “Non-traditional” new
normal
Funding challenge State budget cuts Limits to student and
family ability to pay and to borrow
Quality challenge Increasing demands from
global economy Questioning what students
are really learning
© 2011 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |
Jobs in today’s (and tomorrow’s) workforce require more education
Source: Carnevale, Anthony P. et al. (June 2010). Help Wanted: Projections of Jobs and Education Requirements Through 2018. Georgetown Center on Education and the Workforce. www9.georgetown.edu/grad/gppi/hpi/cew/pdfs/FullReport.pdf
High S
choo
l Drop
out
High S
choo
l Grad
uate
Some C
olleg
e / A
ssoc
iate's
Bache
lor's
& High
er
32%40%
12% 16%11%
30% 27%32%
10%
28% 29% 33%
Percentage of Workforce by Education Level1973 2002 2018
© 2011 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |
The college access agenda has been a success…
Postsecondary fall enrollment 1963-2005
Source: IPEDS
© 2011 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |
% of Citizens with Postsecondary Degrees Among OECD Countries, by Age Group (2007)
55-64 45-54 35-44 25-34 ALL (25-64)
1 U.S. (39%) Canada (45%) Canada (53%) Canada (56%) Canada (48%)
2 Canada (39%) Japan (41%) Japan (46%) Korea (56%) Japan (41%)
3 N.Z. (35%) U.S. (40%) Finland (43%) Japan (54%) N.Z. (41%)
4 Finland (28%) N.Z. (39%) U.S. (42%) N.Z. (47%) U.S. (40%)
5 Australia (27%) Finland (36%) N.Z. (41%) Ireland (44%) Finland (36%)
6 Norway (26%) Australia (32%) Korea (40%) Norway (43%) Korea (35%)
7 Sweden (26%) Norway (31%) Norway (36%) France (41%) Norway (34%)
8 Neth. (26%) U.K. (31%) Belgium (36%) Belgium (41%) Australia (34%)
9 Switz. (26%) Denmark (30%) Iceland (35%) Australia (41%) Ireland (312)
10 U.K. (25%) Neth. (30%) Ireland (34%) U.S. (40%) Denmark (32%)
11 Denmark (24%) Switz. (30%) Denmark (34%) Denmark (40%) Belgium (32%)
12 Japan (24%) Sweden (29%) Australia (34%) Sweden (40%) U.K. (32%)
13 Germany (23%) Belgium (28%) Switz. (34%) Finland (39%) Switz. (31%)
14 Iceland (23%) Iceland (28%) U.K. (32%) Spain (39%) Sweden (31%)
15 Belgium (22%) Germany (25%) Spain (32%) U.K. (37%) Neth. (31%)
…But degree attainment rates are flat
9Source: OECD, “Education at a Glance 2009” (All rates are self-reported)
© 2011 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |
Why? Low completion rates – our dirty little secret
Source: NELS 1988
Total Private not-for-profit
Public 4-year
Private for-profit
Public 2-year
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Bachelor'sAssociate'sCertificate
Percentage of students expecting to earn credentialswho had earned a credential within five years
53%
73%
61%55%
38%
© 2011 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |
The quality of degrees themselves is being questioned
Study of 2,300 undergraduates at two dozen universities who took the Collegiate Learning Assessment 45 percent “demonstrated no significant gains
in critical thinking, analytical reasoning, and written communications during the first two years of college”
32 percent of the students whom they followed did not, in a typical semester, take “any courses with more than 40 pages of reading per week
50 percent “did not take a single course in which they wrote more than 20 pages over the course of the semester”
© 2011 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |
Tuition and fees are growing rapidly…
Source: New York Times
© 2011 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |
Source: Association of American Publishers (AAP)
…And state funding is declining
© 2011 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |
Meanwhile, student demographics are increasingly nontraditional
75%
25%
“Traditional”• Enter college
directly after high school
• Enroll fulltime• Financially
dependent on their parents
“Non-traditional”• Financially
independent (>50%)
• Have dependents of their own (27%)
• Work full time (38%)
• Enroll part time (49%)
Source: The Other 75%: Government Policy & Mass Higher Education., Paul Attewell (unpublished).
© 2011 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |
Higher ed on the edge of major transformation?
The Gates Foundation’s postsecondary work
The changing learner
Five trends in technology and learning I'm watching
15
© 2011 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |
Education is the primary arbiter of opportunity in the U.S.
Source: Hertz. 2006 Center for American Progress, “Understanding Mobility in America”
Total inter-generational correlation = 0.431 (1.0 would be perfectly correlated)
Education of parents
Race of head of household
Health status of parents
State of residence
Female-headed household
Financial assets
Unexplained (e.g., motivation, social networks, community, norms)
30%
100%
14%
8%5%
3%
1-28%12-39%
Composition of total intergenerational correlation between parent and children’s income, by transmission channel
© 2011 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |
Higher education is not equitably distributed
Source: Mortenson, Thomas (2009). Family Income and Educational Attainment. 1970 – 2008. Postsecondary Education Opportunity. No 209, Nov 2009.
Bachelor’s Degree attainment by age 24
© 2011 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |
Graduate all students college-
ready
Help all young people get
degrees that count
College-Ready Postsecondary Success
Helping all young people reach their
full potential
U.S. Program Goal
The Gates Foundation’s work in the U.S. All young people who have the will to get a postsecondary credential should have the way to do it
© 2011 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |
Gates Foundation postsecondary priorities
Focusing on completion, not just access, in our measurement, funding, and financial aid systems
Accelerating time to a degree through restructuring developmental education and bridging the gaps between high school and college Unlocking the power of technology to personalize learning and student progression
1
2
3
© 2011 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |
Higher ed on the edge of major transformation?
The Gates Foundation’s postsecondary work
The changing learner
Five trends in technology and learning I'm watching
20
© 2011 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |
Changing generational context
• Video games• PC• Email• CDs• Individualist
GenerationX
• Web• Cell phone• IM• MP3s• Online
community
Net GenBaby Boomers
TV generation Typewriters Telephone Memos Family focus
© 2011 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |
Changing generational context
NetGen’s Online 12.2 hrs per week• 28% > GenX, 50% > Boomer
NetGen 50% more likely to send IMs than GenX, 2x as likely to read Blogs, just as likely to use Social Networking Sites
70% HH Broadband (up from 29% in 2004)
85% HH Mobile Phones• Data to phone: 50% NetGen, 33% GenY,
20% Boomers
© 2011 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |
How does Net Gen use the internet?For social, search, and commerce
Less for formal expression
• Use an online social networking site like MySpace or Facebook 73%
• Go online to get news or information about current events or politics 62%
• Buy things online, such as books, clothing, or music 48%
• Share something online that you created yourself, such as your own artwork, photos, stories or videos 38%
• Look online for health, dieting, or physical fitness information 31%
• Take material you find online like songs, text or images and remix it into your own artistic creation 21%
• Create or work on your own online journal or blog 14%
• Use Twitter 8%• Visit virtual worlds such as Gaia,
Second Life or Habbo Hotel 8%
Source: Pew Survey of Internet & American Life, 2009
© 2011 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |
Higher ed on the edge of major transformation?
The Gates Foundation’s postsecondary work
The changing learner
Five trends in technology and learning I'm watching
© 2011 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |
How to make sense of all this?
Formal LearningInformal Learning
Emerging Product Categories
Established Product Categories
Online Learning
P2P
Tutoring
Services Oriented
Community Driven
Content Driven
SocialGames
Simulation
Interven-tions
Platform Driven
Aggregators
Open Publishing
Reference
-ware
Learning Commun
ities
Online Resources
Learning Games
MobileSocial Networks
Source: Startl
© 2011 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |
Bloom can help: the two-sigma problem
Source: The 2 Sigma Problem: The Search for Methods of Group Instruction as Effective as One-to-One Tutoring, Benjamin S. Bloom, Educational Researcher, 1984
© 2011 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |
Five Trends I'm Watching
1 Open content and cheap devices democratize information
© 2011 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |
Open educational resources moving beyond PDFs…
2,000 MIT courses, many with lecture capture
2,400 lessons, delivered 78,406,600 times – and counting
© 2011 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |
…And available at students’ fingertips
Source: BCG, Unleashing the Potential of Technology in Education, Allison Bailey, Tyce Henry, Lane McBride, J. Puckett, August 2011
© 2011 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |
Five Trends I'm Watching
2 Lecture model challenged by virtual teams and shared courseware
1 Open content and cheap devices democratize information
© 2011 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |
“Improvement in post-secondary education will require converting teaching from a ‘solo-sport’ to a community-based research activity.”
-Herbert Simon, Nobel Laureate
© 2011 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |
Carnegie Mellon Open Learning Initiative
Source: Carnegie Mellon Open Learning Initiative
© 2011 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |
Accelerated Learning Results
OLI students completed course in half the time with half the number of in-person course meetings
OLI students showed significantly greater learning gains (on the national standard “CAOS” test for statistics knowledge) and similar exam scores
No significant difference between OLI and traditional students in follow-up measures given 1+ semesters later
Source: Carnegie Mellon Open Learning Initiative
© 2011 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |
Model challengers taking many forms
© 2011 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |
Five Trends I'm Watching
2 Lecture model challenged by virtual teams and shared courseware
3 Social media enables learning networks
1 Open content and cheap devices democratize information
© 2011 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |
Social media for social integration
Facebook friends
Wall posts
109
182
82
123
PersistersNon-persis-ters
Correlation of Facebook activity to persistence
Source: Morris, Reese, Beck, and Mattis, Facebook Usage as a Predictor of Retention at a Private 4-Year Institution, Journal of College Student Retention, 2010
© 2011 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |
Layering social into learning networks
© 2011 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |
How many people would you like in your learning network?
© 2011 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |
Five Trends I'm Watching
2 Lecture model challenged by virtual teams and shared courseware
3 Social media enables learning networks
1 Open content and cheap devices democratize information
4 Amazon/Ebay style analytics unlock personalization
© 2011 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |
Per semester credits:4 year: >=155 year: 12-146 year: <12
Time-to-degree tracks of “4-year” students
Source: SARA GOLDRICK-RAB and DOUGLAS N. HARRIS;
© 2011 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |
CONNECTION ENTRY PROGRESS COMPLETION
Student Data System
Student Engagement
Leadership Focused on Completion
Predictive modeling and targeted interventions
• Iowa Community Colleges Online Consortium
• Sinclair Community College• University of Maryland (BC)• Capella University
• American Public University System
• Rio Salado College• Purdue University
© 2011 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |
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© 2011 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |
Five Trends I'm Watching
2 Lecture model challenged by virtual teams and shared courseware
3 Social media enables learning networks
1 Open content and cheap devices democratize information
4 Amazon/Ebay style analytics unlock personalization
5 DIY is for real and informal learning brands emerge
© 2011 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |
DIY U
© 2011 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |
New brands and entrants?
© 2011 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation |
So what should Dartmouth faculty do?I don’t know. But if I had to venture…1. Accelerate blended learning
efforts2. Integrate SCVNGR-like
approaches into academics3. Link students into learning
networks4. “Flip” the classroom5. Others?
Thank You
Josh Jarrett, Deputy DirectorEducation – Postsecondary Success