how does rising rural population density affect smallholder agriculture? milu muyanga
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Policy Seminar “Boserup and Beyond Mounting Land Pressures & Development Strategies in Africa” at IFPRI on 4 September 2014. Presentation by Milu Muyanga, Assistant Professor, International Development Agricultural, Food, and Resource Economics, Michigan State University.TRANSCRIPT
HOW DOES RISING RURAL POPULATION DENSITY AFFECT SMALLHOLDER AGRICULTURE?
EVIDENCE FROM ETHIOPIA, KENYA & MALAWI
Milu Muyanga, J. Ricker-Gilbert , D. Headey, A. L. Josephson, T.S. Jayne
Photo: Christiaensen and Demery (2007)
Photo: Christiaensen and Demery (2007)
Presentation at the Food Seminar at IFPRI, September 4, 2014, IFPRI Headquarters , Washington DC, USA
10
Motivation• Population densities in many sub-Saharan Africa
are much higher than they were two decades ago
• The rising rural population densities are profoundly
affecting farming systems
• Diminishing land sizes and limited scope of accessing land
• Limited off-farm opportunities
• Are increasing population densities inducing
innovations aimed at intensifying the use of land?
• Consistent with the induced innovation theories of Boserup
(1965) and Ruttan and Hayami (1971)
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Total rural population projections
Source: UN Pop Council, 2013
8
Local analysts point to historical
land injustices as the main cause
of the 2007 post-election violence
and the 2014 killings in the coastal
region of Kenya
Increasing land conflicts-Newspaper Headlines
7
Effects of population density on smallholder-intensification– analytical
framework
6
Data sources• Ethiopia: 6 waves of household-level data from the Ethiopian
Rural Household Surveys covering 1293 households
• Kenya: 5 waves of panel survey data on 1,146 farm
households
• Malawi: 3 waves of rural farm households; only 1375
households were re-interviewed in the last wave
• Geographic Information Systems: Population and land
estimates data came from two GIS databases:
• Global Rural–Urban Mapping Project (GRUMP)
• GlobCover 2009
5
RESULTS: ETHIOPIA
4
Household landholding /adult equivalent by population density
Kilogram of fertilizer used/ha, by population density
RESULTS: KENYA 3
Figure 1: Fertilizer quantities applied per hectare cultivated 5
01
00
15
02
00
25
0
kg
s/h
a
25% 50% 75% 95%0 250 500 750 1000
persons/sq km
actual simulated
Figure 2: Total value of cash expenditures per ha cultivated
81
01
21
41
61
8
'00
0K
Sh
/ha
25% 50% 75% 95%0 250 500 750 1000
persons/sq km
actual simulated
Figure 4: Net crop income per hectare cultivated
20
40
60
80
'00
0K
Sh
25% 50% 75% 95%0 250 500 750 1000
persons/sq km
actual simulated
Figure 5: Net crop income per family labor (resident adults)
15
20
25
30
35
'00
0K
Sh
25% 50% 75% 95%0 250 500 750 1000
persons/sq km
actual simulated
RESULTS: MALAWI 2
Fertilizer kg/ha, by pop. den. Gross value of crop output/ha, by pop. den.
25th percentile
50th percentile
75th percentile
99th percentile010
00
20
00
30
00
40
00
farm
inco
me p
er
adu
lt eq
uiv
ale
nts
0 200 400 600population / square km of land
Farm Income per Adult Equivalent, by pop. den. Value of assets/adult equivalent, by pop. den.
Summary of findings
• Rural population density is projected to increase by 48% in
sub-Saharan Africa in the next 35 years
• Population density is endogenous- what are the drivers of
population density in sub-Saharan Africa?
• Rising population densities are influencing household behavior
and farming systems in sub-Saharan Africa
• Intensification is not possible beyond some population density
thresholds
• 13% of the rural population in Kenya live in areas beyond the
thresholds
• Our results do not explain the reasons for the decline in
agricultural intensification
• Signs of unsustainable agricultural intensification– reduced fallows;
soil mining, etc.
1
Acknowledgements
0