hourly, monthly and seasonal loss of load distribution in
TRANSCRIPT
PJM©2021www.pjm.com | Public
Hourly, Monthly and Seasonal Loss of Load
Distribution in 2023/24 ELCC Model
Patricio Rocha Garrido
Resource Adequacy Planning
Planning Committee Special
Sessions on CIRs for ELCC
Resources
PJM©20212www.pjm.com | Public
Loss of Load Expectation (LOLE) vs Loss of Load Hours (LOLH)
• LOLE and LOLH are two different metrics. LOLE is measured in
days/year while LOLH is measured in hours/year
• Therefore, the main difference in the calculation of the two
metrics is in the “counting” of loss of load events
• For example, if in a simulated day there were 3 hours with loss of
load:
– For LOLE, such day will count as 1. LOLE is concerned with the
existence of loss of load events in a day, not with the number of
hours with loss of load.
– For LOLH, such day will count as 3.
PJM©20213www.pjm.com | Public
LOLE and LOLH in the 2023/24 ELCC Run
• The LOLE in the 2023/24 ELCC run is 0.1 days/year
• The LOLH in the 2023/24 ELCC run is 0.358 hours/year
• As expected, LOLH is greater than LOLE because in the ELCC
model whenever there is a day with Loss of Load such day tends
to have more than a single hour with loss of load
PJM©20214www.pjm.com | Public
LOLE - Monthly and Seasonal Distribution
Summer: ~ 93%
Winter: ~ 7%
PJM©20215www.pjm.com | Public
LOLH – Hourly Distribution for Summer
PJM©20216www.pjm.com | Public
LOLH – Hourly Distribution for Winter
PJM©20217www.pjm.com | Public
LOLH – Monthly and Hourly Distribution
PJM©20218www.pjm.com | Public
Contact
SME / Presenter:
Patricio Rocha Garrido,
Hourly, Monthly and Seasonal Loss of Load
Distribution in 2023/24 ELCC Results
Member Hotl ine
(610) 666 – 8980
(866) 400 – 8980