home price monitor, released march 2012
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TRANSCRIPT
Home Price Monitor March 2012
National Association of REALTORS®
Research Division
Cutting Through the Noise: Various Home Price Measure
Highlights
• On a month-to-month basis most home price measures showed a slight decline in January. The exception was CoreLogic’s distressed-excluded measure which showed a small increase. Early measures for February are all positive, but these are not seasonally adjusted and can be explained by the typical seasonal pickup in activity.
• On a year over year basis, small declines persisted across measures in January within the range that has been typical of recent months.
• Notably, early February data show a year over year increase in existing home prices, the first such increase since November 2010.
• New home prices continue to fluctuate greatly due to low levels of construction and purchase activity.
• Distressed sales, which hold back existing home prices, comprised 34 percent of sales in a recent survey of Realtors—down from nearly 40 percent a year ago and within the range of what has been typical in recent months.
Outlook
• From a broad perspective, many of the same stabilizing trends continue to
drive the outlook. Low inventories, declining delinquency rates, and strong
foot traffic should help to support prices, though buyers searching for the
right home may have fewer options from which to choose. Very limited new
construction means that buyers initially searching for a new home may find
more selection among existing homes.
• In addition to low inventory making it difficult for buyers to find the right
home, seller pricing expectations may continue to present challenges. Data
from the Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers show that sellers typically sold
their homes for 95% of the listing price, and 61% reduced the asking price at
least once.
• Affordability remains high and the jobs figures continue to be a positive sign.
An improving economy coupled with affordability could provide a needed jolt
to primary residence sales. Rising apartment rents may make a home purchase
the more affordable option for some households.
Home Prices
100.00
120.00
140.00
160.00
180.00
200.00
220.00
240.00
260.00
280.00
$100,000
$120,000
$140,000
$160,000
$180,000
$200,000
$220,000
$240,000
$260,000
$280,000
Jan
-02
Ap
r-0
2
Jul-
02
Oct
-02
Jan
-03
Ap
r-0
3
Jul-
03
Oct
-03
Jan
-04
Ap
r-0
4
Jul-
04
Oct
-04
Jan
-05
Ap
r-0
5
Jul-
05
Oct
-05
Jan
-06
Ap
r-0
6
Jul-
06
Oct
-06
Jan
-07
Ap
r-0
7
Jul-
07
Oct
-07
Jan
-08
Ap
r-0
8
Jul-
08
Oct
-08
Jan
-09
Ap
r-0
9
Jul-
09
Oct
-09
Jan
-10
Ap
r-1
0
Jul-
10
Oct
-10
Jan
-11
Ap
r-1
1
Jul-
11
Oct
-11
Jan
-12
NAR Median Sales Price: Total Existing Homes, United States ($)New 1-Family Houses: Median Sales Price (Dollars)FHFA House Price Index: Purchase Only, United States (NSA, Jan-91=100)S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index: Composite 20 (NSA, Jan-00=100)S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index: Composite 10 (NSA, Jan-00=100)CoreLogic National House Price Index (NSA, Jan.2000=100)
Sources: NAR, Case-Shiller, CoreLogic, FHFA, Census, HAVER
Home Price Data – Year over Year Change
Sources: NAR, Case-Shiller, CoreLogic, FHFA, Census, HAVER
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
Jan
-02
Ap
r-0
2
Jul-
02
Oct
-02
Jan
-03
Ap
r-0
3
Jul-
03
Oct
-03
Jan
-04
Ap
r-0
4
Jul-
04
Oct
-04
Jan
-05
Ap
r-0
5
Jul-
05
Oct
-05
Jan
-06
Ap
r-0
6
Jul-
06
Oct
-06
Jan
-07
Ap
r-0
7
Jul-
07
Oct
-07
Jan
-08
Ap
r-0
8
Jul-
08
Oct
-08
Jan
-09
Ap
r-0
9
Jul-
09
Oct
-09
Jan
-10
Ap
r-1
0
Jul-
10
Oct
-10
Jan
-11
Ap
r-1
1
Jul-
11
Oct
-11
Jan
-12
NAR Median Sales Price: Total Existing Homes, United States ($)New 1-Family Houses: Median Sales Price (Dollars)FHFA House Price Index: Purchase Only, United States (NSA, Jan-91=100)S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index: Composite 20 (NSA, Jan-00=100)S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index: Composite 10 (NSA, Jan-00=100)CoreLogic National House Price Index (NSA, Jan.2000=100)
Home Price Changes
*All data are not seasonally adjusted. Monthly changes should typically be computed only for Seasonally Adjusted (SA) data. Because these change rates are often covered in the media regardless of their suitability for analysis, they are presented here but should be used with caution. Annual (yr-over-yr) changes computed for Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA) data give a measure that is not affected by seasonal fluctuations.
Data Series
Jan-12
Monthly
Change*
Jan-12
Annual
Change*
Feb-12
Monthly
Change*
Feb-12
Annual
Change*
Next
Release
Date
NAR Median Sales Price: Total Existing Homes -4.7% -2.1% 1.3% 0.3% 19-Apr
NAR Median Sales Price: Existing 1-Family Homes -4.9% -2.5% 1.6% 0.1% 19-Apr
FHFA House Price Index: Purchase Only -0.5% -0.7% -- -- 24-Apr
S&P/Case-Shiller HPI: Composite 20 -0.8% -3.8% -- -- 24-Apr
S&P/Case-Shiller HPI: Composite 10 -0.8% -3.9% -- -- 24-Apr
CoreLogic National HPI -1.0% -3.1% -- -- Mid-Apr
CoreLogic National HPI - Distressed Excluded 0.7% -0.9% -- -- Mid-Apr
New 1-Family Houses: Median Sales Price -1.3% -10.2% 8.3% 6.2% 24-Apr
Sources: NAR, Case-Shiller, CoreLogic, FHFA, Census, HAVER
Spread of Existing Home Price Changes Year over Year
Sources: NAR, Case-Shiller, CoreLogic, FHFA, HAVER
-25.00
-20.00
-15.00
-10.00
-5.00
0.00
5.00
10.00
Supply and Demand Factors – Inventory
Sources: NAR
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
4,000,000
4,500,000
NAR Total Existing Homes Avail for Sale at EOP, United States (Units, NSA)
NAR Months' Supply of Total Existing Homes, United States (Months)
NAR Months' Supply of Total Existing Homes, United States (Months) (right axis)
NAR Total Existing Homes Avail for Sale at EOP, United States (Units, NSA) (left axis)
Supply – New Housing Starts and Permits
Sources: Census
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
Housing Starts: 1 Unit (SAAR, Thous.Units) Housing Units Authorized: 1-Unit Structures (SAAR, Thous.Units)
Underlying Demand – Job Growth and Hires
Sources: BLS
-2,000
-1,000
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
Change in Total Nonfarm Employment (SA, Thous) JOLTS: Hires: Total (SA, Thous)
Potential Job Growth – Openings
Sources: BLS
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
JOLTS: Job Openings: Total (SA, Thous)
Housing Affordability
Sources: NAR
0.0
50.0
100.0
150.0
200.0
250.0
0
5
10
15
20
25
NAR Housing Affordability: Payment as Percent of Income, U.S. (%)NAR Housing Affordability Index: Composite (Fixed + ARM), United States
NAR Housing Affordability Index: Composite (right axis)
NAR Payment as Percent of Income (left axis)
About the Price Data Series
Data Series Strengths/Weaknesses of Data Series
NAR Median Sales Price: Total Existing Homes
NAR Median Sales Price: Existing 1-Family Homes
FHFA House Price Index: Purchase Only
Weighted Repeat Sales (WRS) Index, sourced from Fannie/Freddie purchase &
refinance mortgages (excludes FHA, VA, Jumbo, Subprime)
S&P/Case-Shiller HPI: Composite 20
S&P/Case-Shiller HPI: Composite 10
CoreLogic National HPI
CoreLogic National HPI - Distressed Excluded
New 1-Family Houses: Median Sales Price Based on home builder interviews in the Survey of Construction
Most timely Data, broad geographic coverage, sourced from MLS and Realtor® board
data, data in dollars, total exisiting includes condos and coops
WRS Index, sourced from County recorder data, weighted by property value;
quarterly national index (not shown), monthly 10 and 20-city metro indexes and
composites are 3 month moving averages
Weighted Repeat Sales Index, sourced from database of loan servicing and County
recorder data
Sources: NAR, Case-Shiller, CoreLogic, FHFA, Census, HAVER