home price monitor 2012-8-29

7/31/2019 Home Price Monitor 2012-8-29

1/13

Home Price Monitor

August 2012

National Association of REALTORS

Research Division

Cutting Through the Noise: Various Home Price Measure


2/13

Highlights

Case Shiller data showed the first annual increase in June while other dataseries show a continued 4 to 5 months of annual increases.

NAR data for July show the typical end of summer slowdown as pricesdipped somewhat from June.

New home prices continue to fluctuate greatly due to low levels ofconstruction and purchase activity; presently new home prices show some

weakness. Distressed sales, which hold back existing home prices, comprised only

25 percent of sales in a recent survey of Realtorsdown from 40percent in early 2011 to the lowest level since the data began to becollected. While there are still notable numbers of distressed sales due

to increasing overall sales, this reduction of distressed sales share is apositive sign for prices.
http://economistsoutlook.blogs.realtor.org/tag/distressed-property/http://economistsoutlook.blogs.realtor.org/tag/distressed-property/http://economistsoutlook.blogs.realtor.org/tag/distressed-property/


3/13

Outlook

From a broad perspective, many of the same stabilizing trends continue todrive the outlook, though low inventories have taken the lead role in recent

months. Low inventories and strong buyer demand seen in strong foot traffic

helped boost prices in recent months. If supply slows more than demand

going into the seasonally slower fall months, tighter conditions could continue

to push prices up.

Very limited new construction means that buyers initially searching for a new

home may find more selection among existing homes despite tight inventory.

Housing permits and construction are higher, but are still at low levels, so new

supply is not expected to add downward price pressure anytime soon.

Affordability remains high, and rising apartment rents may make a home

purchase the more affordable option for some households in spite of the oft-

cited generational shift away from housing. This would add to the positive

trend for sales and prices.
http://economistsoutlook.blogs.realtor.org/tag/foot-traffic/http://economistsoutlook.blogs.realtor.org/tag/rents/http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2012/09/the-cheapest-generation/309060/http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2012/09/the-cheapest-generation/309060/http://economistsoutlook.blogs.realtor.org/tag/rents/http://economistsoutlook.blogs.realtor.org/tag/foot-traffic/


4/13

Home Prices

100.00

120.00

140.00

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180.00

200.00

220.00

240.00

260.00

280.00

$100,000

$120,000

$140,000

$160,000

$180,000

$200,000

$220,000

$240,000

$260,000

$280,000

Jun-02

Sep-02

Dec-02

M

ar-03

Jun-03

Sep-03

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Jun-04

Sep-04

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M

ar-05

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ar-07

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ar-10

Jun-10

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Jun-11

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ar-12

Jun-12

NAR Median Sales Price: Total Existing Homes, United States ($)New 1-Family Houses: Median Sales Price (Dollars)FHFA House Price Index: Purchase Only, United States (NSA, Jan-91=100)S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index: Composite 20 (NSA, Jan-00=100)S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index: Composite 10 (NSA, Jan-00=100)CoreLogic National House Price Index (NSA, Jan.2000=100)

Sources: NAR, Case-Shiller, CoreLogic, FHFA, Census, HAVER


5/13

Home Price DataYear over Year Change


-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

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Mar-03

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Mar-06

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Mar-07

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Mar-08

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Mar-09

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Mar-11

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Mar-12

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NAR Median Sales Price: Total Existing Homes, United States ($)New 1-Family Houses: Median Sales Price (Dollars)FHFA House Price Index: Purchase Only, United States (NSA, Jan-91=100)S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index: Composite 20 (NSA, Jan-00=100)S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index: Composite 10 (NSA, Jan-00=100)CoreLogic National House Price Index (NSA, Jan.2000=100)


6/13

Home Price Changes

*All data are not seasonally adjusted. Monthly changes should typically be computed only for

Seasonally Adjusted (SA) data. Because these change rates are often covered in the media

regardless of their suitability for analysis, they are presented here but should be used with

caution. Annual (yr-over-yr) changes computed for Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA) data give a

measure that is not affected by seasonal fluctuations.

Data Series

Jun-12

Monthly

Change*

Jun-12

Annual

Change*

Jul-12

Monthly

Change*

Jul-12

Annual

Change*

Next

Release

Date

NAR Median Sales Price: Total Existing Homes 4.7% 7.5% -0.8% 9.4% 19-Sep

NAR Median Sales Price: Existing 1-Family Homes 5.2% 7.7% -0.8% 9.6% 19-Sep

FHFA House Price Index: Purchase Only 1.2% 3.7% -- -- 25-SepS&P/Case-Shiller HPI: Composite 20 2.3% 0.5% -- -- 25-Sep

S&P/Case-Shiller HPI: Composite 10 2.2% 0.1% -- -- 25-Sep

CoreLogic National HPI 1.3% 2.5% -- -- Mid-Sep

CoreLogic National HPI - Distressed Excluded 2.0% 3.2% -- -- Mid-Sep

New 1-Family Houses: Median Sales Price -3.4% -4.6% -2.1% -2.5% 26-Sep



7/13

Spread of Existing Home Price ChangesYear over Year

Sources: NAR, Case-Shiller, CoreLogic, FHFA, HAVER

-25.00

-20.00

-15.00

-10.00

-5.00

0.00

5.00

10.00


8/13

Supply and Demand FactorsInventory

Sources: NAR

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

3,500,000

4,000,000

4,500,000

NAR Total Existing Homes Avail for Sale at EOP, United States (Units, NSA)

NAR Months' Supply of Total Existing Homes, United States (Months)

NAR Months' Supply of Total Existing Homes,

United States (Months) (right axis)

NAR Total Existing Homes Avail for Sale atEOP, United States (Units, NSA) (left axis)


9/13

SupplyNew Housing Starts and Permits

Sources: Census

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

Housing Starts: 1 Unit (SAAR, Thous.Units) Housing Units Authorized: 1-Unit Structures (SAAR, Thous.Units)


10/13

Underlying DemandJob Growth and Hires

Sources: BLS

-2,000

-1,000

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

Change in Total Nonfarm Employment (SA, Thous) JOLTS: Hires: Total (SA, Thous)


11/13

Potential Job GrowthOpenings

Sources: BLS

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

JOLTS: Job Openings: Total (SA, Thous)


12/13

Housing Affordability

Sources: NAR

0.0

50.0

100.0

150.0

200.0

250.0

0

5

10

15

20

25

NAR Housing Affordability: Payment as Percent of Income, U.S. (%)

NAR Housing Affordability Index: Composite (Fixed + ARM), United States

NAR Housing Affordability Index: Composite

(right axis)

NAR Payment as Percent of Income

(left axis)


13/13

About the Price Data Series

Data Series Strengths/Weaknesses of Data Series

NAR Median Sales Price: Total Existing Homes

NAR Median Sales Price: Existing 1-Family Homes

FHFA House Price Index: Purchase Only

Weighted Repeat Sales (WRS) Index, sourced from Fannie/Freddie purchase &

refinance mortgages (excludes FHA, VA, Jumbo, Subprime)

S&P/Case-Shiller HPI: Composite 20

S&P/Case-Shiller HPI: Composite 10

CoreLogic National HPI

CoreLogic National HPI - Distressed Excluded

New 1-Family Houses: Median Sales Price Based on home builder interviews in the Survey of Construction

Most timely Data, broad geographic coverage, sourced from MLS and Realtor board

data, data in dollars, total exisiting includes condos and coops

WRS Index, sourced from County recorder data, weighted by property value;quarterly national index (not shown), monthly 10 and 20-city metro indexes and

composites are 3 month moving averages

Weighted Repeat Sales Index, sourced from database of loan servicing and County

recorder data


home price monitor 2012-8-29

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