Historical Year for 2026 Common Case Load/Hydro/Wind/Solar Shapes

TAS November 2015 Meeting

Tom Miller- TAS Vice ChairW E S T E R N E L E C T R I C I T Y C O O R D I N A T I N G

C O U N C I L

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Discussion

1. WECC Anti Trust Statement2. Meeting Background and Objectives 3. Use of Load Shapes in Gridview- WECC Staff4. California Load Attributes

– Developing Criteria for Load Shapes– Peak Load Months and Heating/Cooling Days

5. Revisit 2008 vs 2009 Hydro– CA Concerns about 2008 Hydro– Northwest Load and Wind (April)

6. The Great Recession7. Alternative Proposal (Vote at TAS Quarterly meeting)8. Other Lessons learned and Next Steps

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Background and Objectives• Background

– TAS Vote - Michael Bailey– Concerns Raised– Further Investigation

• Meeting Objectives– Overview of further investigation of Load shapes– Present and discuss rationale for alternative proposal- VOTE– Lessons Learned and next steps

• Meeting Success: – Provide stakeholders additional information and opportunity

to discuss attributes of candidate energy shape years– Provide alternative proposal to be considered with original

proposal for 2026 Common Case (Note: Vote will be done at TAS Quarterly Meeting in November)

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Use of Load Shapes- Gridview

• Over view of Gridview Modeling Options for use of load shapes– Monthly Peak MW and Energy– Annual Peak and Energy (Uses 8760 profile)logic

• Issue: Need to review reported LRS data too!

WECC Staff to add slides for discussion

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Load Criteria Development

What Criteria do Planning Regions Plan to?

• Summer Winter Peak Mw• Energy• Load-net wind-solar Peaks

Table shows assessment of 2007-2014 Annual Peak Month • Non-Typical Peak Month• Typical Peak Month

Region BA 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

CA BANC 7 7 7 8 7 8 7 7

CA CISO 8 6 9 8 9 8 6 9

CA IID 8 6 7 8 8 8 6 7

CA LDWP 8 6 9 9 9 8 9 9

CA TIDC 8 7 6 8 7 8 7 7

CA CFE 9 8 7 8 8 8 7 7

NW AESO 12 12 12 12 1 1 12 12

NW BCHA 1 12 12 11 1 1 12 2

NW BPAT 12 12 12 11 1 1 12 2

NW CHPD 1 12 12 11 12 1 12 2

NW DOPD 1 12 * 11 1 1 12 2

NW GCPD 7 6 12 7 7 8 7 7

NW IPCO 7 6 7 * 7 7 7 7

NW PACW 1 12 12 11 1 1 12 2

NW PGE 1 12 7 11 1 8 12 2

NW SCL 1 12 12 11 1 1 12 2

NW AVA 1 12 12 11 1 1 12 2

RM NWMT 7 12 12 12 2 7 12 8

RM PACE 7 8 7 8 8 7 7 7

RM PSCO 7 8 7 7 7 6 7 7

RM PSEI 1 12 12 11 1 1 12 2

RM SPPC 7 7 7 7 7 8 7 *

RM WACM 8 7 12 7 7 7 8 7

RM WAUW 7 12 7 7 12 7 7

SW AZPS 8 8 7 7 8 8 7 7

SW EPE 8 6 7 8 8 8 6 6

SW NEVP 7 7 7 7 8 7 7 7

SW PNM 8 7 8 7 7 7 6 6

SW SRP 7 8 7 7 8 8 7 7

SW TEPC 7 8 8 7 6 8 6 7

SW TPWR 1 12 12 11 2 1 12 2

SW WALC 7 7 8 7 10 5 6 5

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Load Criteria Development

2008 California Major Load Centers June Peak not typical

Conclusion: 2009 is a better representative year over 2008 regarding typical system peak months

Region 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014CA Good Poor Good Good Good Good Poor OKNW Good Good Good Poor Good Good Good PoorRM Good Good Good Good OK Good Good PoorSW Good Good Good Good Good Good Good Good

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CA Annual Cooling Days

19801982

19841986

19881990

19921994

19961998

20002002

20042006

20082010

20122014

10,000.00

11,000.00

12,000.00

13,000.00

14,000.00

15,000.00

16,000.00

17,000.00

18,000.00

California History of Annual Cooling Degree Days

Conclusion: both 2008 and 2009 are good candidate years regarding CA CDDs

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Typical Northwest Wind and Loads

Wind: Northwest (WA+OR)

WECC-Wide Stress:

In California-Southwest, the system is more prone to over-generation (with high solar and low load in April).

In Northwest, it is also more likely to have over-generation (with higher wind) in April than in June.

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2008-2009 NW Hydro Data Concerns Non-typical NW

Hydro Monthly Shape

• April 2008: Below typical NW Hydro may under-state over-generation issues in the Northwest (Wind) and Southwest/California Regions (Low Load/High Solar)

• June 2009: late runoff and above average my “stress” flows across COI and CA 500/230kv Backbone

Conclusion: 2009 better representative of typical year that has benefits for all regions to assess April stress

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The Great Recession

Conclusion: 2009 loads more typical and reflect rebound from 2008 as peak of economic down-turn

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Pros and ConsPROS 2008 2009

Annual Hydro Energy Good (Pro) Good (Pro)CA Load Peak Month Poor (Con)

CA June Peak non-typicalGood (Pro)

Hydro Monthly Variations Deviations from typical (Con) In line with typical (Pro)April NW Hydro Lower than typical NW

Hydro: under represents Over-Gen (Con)

Favorable for Assessing typical Over-Gen WECC-wide (Pro)

June NW Hydro Non Typical (High) “Stress” on COI

Favorable (Pro)

CA Cooling Degree Days Good (Pro) June not typical

Good (Pro)

“Stress” sensitivities Good (Con) Poor (Pro)

Updated NREL Wind Solar Available (Pro) Available (Pro)

Great Recession Peak of EconomicDown-turn (Con)

Recovery towards economic growth

(Pro)

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Proposals

• Original Proposal for TAS Vote: 2008 Coincident Load-Wind-Solar-Hydro

• New- Alternative Proposal: 2009 Coincident Load-Wind-Solar-Hydro

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Lessons Learned

• Gridview modeling of monthly peak-MW and energy helps mitigates concern over 2008 CA June peak Issues

• Need to develop regional criteria for load shapes • Reported load forecasts need to be vetted for use in

TEPPC data-set– Implied Load Modifiers: EE, BTM-PV– Incremental Modeling: EE, BTMPV, Other– Understand underlying assumptions: economic,

temperature (1 in 2) adjusted• Need for WECC Staff time for load assessments

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NEXT Steps

• 2026 Common Case Energy Shape Implementation

• Smart Goals discussion at Upcoming TAS Quarterly Meeting Discussion– Smart Goal: Measurable, Attainable, Relevant,

Time-bound):• Understanding WECC Load Forecast Data• Investigate 2026 Common Case Load Forecasts Shapes• TAS Process Improvements for Load Assessments

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Questions or Comments