hiroyuki konuma
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Status of Global and Regional Food Security, and Future Outlook Presentation at ASEAN Feed and Rice Symposium Bangkok, April 9, 2014. Hiroyuki Konuma FAO Assistant Director- General and Regional Representative for Asia and the Pacific. Outline of my presentation. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
1st SRII Asia Summit 201316- 18 September, 2013, Bangkok, Thailand
Status of Global and Regional
Food Security, and Future Outlook
Presentation at ASEAN Feed and Rice Symposium
Bangkok, April 9, 2014Hiroyuki Konuma
FAO Assistant Director- General and Regional Representative for Asia and the Pacific
Outline of my presentation
• Present agricultural production and food security situation
• Future outlook of food security situation towards 2050 (can we produce sufficient food to meet the growing demands?)
• Constraints, challenges and uncertainties• Way forward
Cereal production for 2013/14 (as of March 2014) is expected to increase by 9%, contributed by wheat production increase of 8 %,
course grain 11% and rice 1.1%
Global scenario on malnutrition
Undernourishment currently at 842 m (12% of global population)
63 % or 529 m live in Asia Pacific (representing 11.8% of population)
Around 2 billion people suffer from micronutrient deficiencies (30%)
~75 percent of people with micronutrient deficiencies live in Asia
165 million children are stunted (26%)
In South Asia around 39 percent of children under age of 5 are stunted
1.4 billion adults are overweight, of which 500 million are obese
Prevalence of Undernourishment (%)
in Asian Countries (1990/1 to 2011/13)
Source: FAO
Prevalence of Stunting among Children less than 5 years (%) (2010 to 2012)
Source: FAO
Low-income Asian countries
Middle-income Asian countries
High-income countries
Prevalence of overweight in Asian countries (BMI≥25) in adults
Source: WHO Global NCD Status Report, 2010
Malnutrition in the Pacific Island countries
80% of adults are overweight in the Cook Islands, Kiribati, the Republic of the Marshall Islands, Nauru, Tokelau, Tonga and Samoa
60% of adults are obese in Tonga and the Cook Islands;
75% of all adult deaths are due to NCDs;
40% of children under the age of five are anaemic in Papua New Guinea, Fiji, Nauru, the Solomon Islands; Tuvalu;
40% of pregnant women are anaemic in the Solomon Islands, Fiji, Nauru and Samoa
As food security improves, diets change
1990 2000 20090
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
10% 9% 8%
1990 2000 2009
22% 19% 13%
1990 2000 2009
VegetalAnimal
12%8% 9%
South Asia East Asia Southeast Asia
kcal
/cap
/day
Livestock products now among the top 5
commodities in all Asian sub-regions, 2012
Meat, cattle
Milk, whole fresh
Maize
Meat, pig
Rice, paddy
0 50,000 100,000
East Asia Southeast Asia
Rubber
Meat, chicken
Meat, pig
Oil, palm
Rice, paddy
0 20,000 40,000
US$ billion at (constant 2004-2006 prices)
Livestock products now among the top 5
commodities in all Asian sub-regions, 2012
South Asia Central Asia
US$ billion at (constant 2004-2006 prices)
Chicken
Potatoes
Wheat
Rice, paddy
Milk, whole fresh
0 50,000
Potatoes
Cotton, lint
Meat, cattle
Wheat
Milk, whole fresh
0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000
Can we produce sufficient food to meet the demand of the growing future population which would reach 9.2 billion by 2050?
13
Outlook Towards Year 2050
14
World Population Trends
Source: UN, 2011
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
1200019
5019
5519
6019
6519
7019
7519
8019
8519
9019
9520
0020
0520
1020
1520
2020
2520
3020
3520
4020
4520
5020
5520
6020
6520
7020
7520
8020
8520
9020
9521
00
developed Sub-Saharan AfricaNothAfrica and the Middle East Latin America and CaribbSouth Asia Eastern Asiapercentage annual growth rate (right scale)
millions
15
Food Consumption Trends(Kcal/person/day)
Source: Alexandratos, 2011
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
1969/71 1979/81 1990/92 2005-07 2030 2050
Industrial countries Sub-Saharan Africa
Near East-North Africa Latin America & Caribbean
South Asia East Asia
Middle Class Population
17
Global Urbanization Trends
Source: UN, 2011
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.019
50
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
Rural Urban
billions
60% increase in food production needed by 2050(77% increase, if developing countries only)
18
56
317
170
24
77
60
0 100 200 300 400
developed countries
developing countries
world
percent
2005/07-2050 (projected)
1961-2005/07 (observed)
Source: Bruinsma, 2011
Demand growth for meat (to 2030)
S Asia E.Asia SE.Asia Aus&NZ0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Beef Mutton Pork Poultry
Eggs
Mill
ion
tonn
es
Demand growth for milk (to 2030)
Series10
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
S AsiaE.AsiaSE.AsiaAus&NZ
Million MTs
Source: Robinson and Pozzi, 2011
21
Global Production in 2050
Compared to 2005/07, the world would produce every year as at 2050
• one more billion tons of cereals (45%)• 196 more million tons of meats (76%)• 713 more million tons of roots and tubers (64%)• 172 more million tons of soybeans (79%)• 429 more million tons of fruits (68%)• 365 more million tons of vegetables (47%)
Future Outlook Towards Year 2050
Can we increase food production by 60 % (or 77% in developing countries) by 2050 to meet the needs
of growing population which would exceed 9 billion at that time?
Yes! In principle we have to
But majority of it (91 %) has to come from existing arable land through agricultural research and
yield increase 22
23
Sources of Production Growth (91% is expected to come from yield increase)
Source: Bruinsma, 2011
-20.0
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
world developing developed
(percent)
Yields increases between 2005/07 and 2050
Crop intensity increases between 2005/07 and 2050
Area increase between 2005/07 and 2050
Targeted Increases in Food Production Must be met under Existing Constraints
• Stagnation of expansion of arable land• Increasing scarcity of water resources• Decline of productivity growth affected by lack of
investment in agriculture in recent decades• Increasing post-harvest losses and table waste• Various uncertainties such as future crude oil
prices, food price hike and volatilities, negative impact of climate changes and natural disasters, and bio-fuel development.
24
25
Limited Scope Exists for Expansion of Arable Land in Asian Countries (only 5% of existing land can be expanded mainly in
Africa and Latin America)
-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
Developed countries
sub-Saharan Africa
Latin America Near East / North Africa
South Asia East Asia
Arable land in use, 2005/07
Additional land projected to be in use, 2050
million ha
Source: Bruinsma, 2011
Increased Production will Increase the Demand for Water
26
Water is a Key Requirement for Food Production
10th New Ag International Conference and Exhibition, 28 - 30 March 2012, BangkokSource: Selected Indicators , FAO - RAP
2011
Growth in cereal yields is slowing
Wheat Rice (paddy) Maize Total cereals0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
1961-20071987-20072005-2050
Growth rate, percent per year
Source: Bruinsma 2011
Livestock will require a larger share
South Asia East Asia & Pacific0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
20002050
Percent cereals used as animal feed
Asia’s Net Feed Imports
US$ million
30
Sour
ce: F
AOST
AT
S.Asia E.Asia SE.Asia0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
1990 2000 2009
Projection for Maize Production in China
2025
1997
0 50 100 150 200 250
230.56
121.9
China
Million tonnes
But net imports to increase
39
.8
1.9
0 10 20 30 40 50
2025
1997
Million tonnes
2025 1997
338-Oct-2012
8-Oct-2012 34
Crude oil price increased over 500% since 1999
FAO Food Price Index in February 2014 averaged 208 point s which was 2.6% higher than previous month, 50 % higher in real term than 10 years ago
The price of cereals, sugar and dairy products are increasing (FAO Food Price Index, Feb 2014)
Feed prices over the last ten years
Jul-02
Nov-02
Mar-0
3Jul-0
3
Nov-03
Mar-0
4Jul-0
4
Nov-04
Mar-0
5Jul-0
5
Nov-05
Mar-0
6Jul-0
6
Nov-06
Mar-0
7Jul-0
7
Nov-07
Mar-0
8Jul-0
8
Nov-08
Mar-0
9Jul-0
9
Nov-09
Mar-1
0Jul-1
0
Nov-10
Mar-1
1Jul-1
1
Nov-11
Mar-1
2Jul-1
20
100
200
300
400
500
600
maize soybean meal
USD/MT
Uncertainty: climate change
39
“worst case” 2080 scenario: • less harvested area, up to -
39% (World) and -29% (developing countries)
• up to 130 million more undernourished in S-SH Africa
Source: IIASA (Fischer, 2011) Source: IPCC (2007)
The number of natural disasters occurring worldwide has increased
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
19
80
19
82
19
84
19
86
19
88
19
90
19
92
19
94
19
96
19
98
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
Africa Asia-Pacific Caribbean Europe Latin America North America
Number of Disasters
Source: ESCAP and ISDR, The Asia-Pacific Disaster Report 2010.
World bio-ethanol and bio-diesel production is projected to be doubled in 20 years between 2009 and 2018; increasing competition of land and water use with food production
Potential Risks (if the world is unable to meet the production target, and if there is
a food shortage)• Export ban of food by food exporting
countries to protect their own consumers• Uncertainty to secure food import• Food price hike• Food and feed price volatility• Negative impact to the poor consumers• Social unrest , political instability, ………
Remove bottlenecks, cope with constraints
• Stagnation of expansion of arable land• Increasing scarcity of water resources• Decline of productivity growth affected by lack of
investment in agriculture in recent decades• Increasing post-harvest losses and table waste• Various uncertainties such as future crude oil
prices, food price hike and volatilities, negative impact of climate changes and natural disasters, and bio-fuel development.
43
Technologies, institutions and policiesBut....
None of the solutions can be delivered without institutional support and sound policies
Technology and institutions must work together; and policies must provide enabling environment for this
For our future generation!
Let’s Work Together.
What measures might be taken to minimize the risks
A. Production, Research
• Sustainable agricultural intensification /Save and Growth Approach
• Promote technical cooperation with developing countries, SSC , knowledge sharing
• Contribute to the advancement of agricultural research and technological innovation
• Enhance agricultural research, extension and ICT linkages.
B. Trade
• Encourage more free trade agreements to secure food supply
• Diversify trade sources• Negotiate long-term forward trade
contracts• Establish emergency food reserve• Promote food security partnership under
Regional /sub-regional frameworks such as ASEAN, ASEAN +6 47
C. Consumption
• Diversify diets, which will help to ensure a healthier and more nutritious balanced diets,
• Nutrition education• Reduce food losses and waste• Sustainable consumption• Create awareness and advocate the
importance of food and agriculture48