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Agenda of CBD-COP10 Pre-conference for strengthening

scientific basis for conservation and sustainable use of biodiversity

Hiroyuki Matsuda(Yokohama National University)

Asia Pacific Biodiversity Observation Network (AP-BON) Workshop,

United Nations University, Dec. 11, 2009

J-BON 1st MeetingMay 8, 2009U. of Tokyo

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Today’s my talk - overview

• Role of scientists– “strengthening scientific basis” does not mean

“strengthening the role of scientists”

• Check & seek SMART policy for CBD

• Indicators for Post 2010 Target of CBD

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Questions about role of scientists

• Do you support Gov’t or NGOs?

• Do you like to commit to global issues or make a solution of local problems?

• Do you really consider your research field as the biggest environmental issue?

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Two types of scientists

• Emphasize their own research field as the biggest issue in the world– Input importance of their research plan into

consensus of international meetings

• Give moderate comments even against fund-raising of their own research field– Don’t make agreement to get our own fund at

IPBES or CBD.– We are just advisors for CBD issues, and

other environmental issues.

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Four standpoints of scientists

• Say no societal comments to the public

• Say what supports government policies

• Say what supports NGOs

• Say what are believed by him/herself, even disagree with Gov’t or NGOs

Galileo’s InquisitionGalileo’s Inquisition

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Biodiversity science-policy interfaceby A. Larigauderie

Research(DIVERSITAS, ESSP)

Assessment(MA, IPBES, IPCC)

Policy(CBD, UNFCCC)Observations

(GEO BON)

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9. Set preliminary numerical goal

10. Choose monitoring measures

11. Select method of control

Flow diagram for ecological risk management

0. Concerns, issues

2.Delimit management scope, invite stakeholder

3.Organize local council and scientific committee

14. Initiate management

15. Continue management and monitoring

Scientific procedure

Consensus building

4.Characterize “undesired events”

5. Enumerate measures of effects

6. Analyze stress factors by modelling

7. Risk assessment for no-action case

Revision required

Reset goals when not agreed

Reset goals w

hen infeasible

8. Check necessity and purpose of management

13. Decide measures & goals 12. Check feasibility of goals

16. Review numerical goals and purposes

1. Screening

Finish program

scientistspublic

Rossberg et al. 2007 Lands Ecol Eng 1:221-

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Before consensus of aims

4. Characterize “undesired events”

5. Enumerate measures of effects

6. Analyze stress factors by modeling

7. Risk assessment for no-action case

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Between consensus of aims and building action plan

9. Set a preliminary numerical goal

10. Choose monitoring measures

11. Select method of control

12. Check feasibility of goals

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After action plan is executed…

16. Review numerical goals and purposes

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This is

• Tailor-made conservation planning– Process of consensus building is important– Global unique numerical standard is difficult– Unlike human health standard

• Similar ideas– Adaptive management,– Systematic conservation planning– Strategic environment assessment (SEA)– Framework convention

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Today’s my talk - overview

• Role of scientists

• Check & seek SMART policy for CBD– Specific, Measurable, Ambitious, Realistic and

Time-bound

• Indicators for Post 2010 Target of CBD

Scientific?

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New strategic plan: Elements for the 2020 Mission by (J. Shimura)

• Option: by 2020 the necessary urgent and concerted actions to address the threats facing biodiversity so as to stop biodiversity loss, and started to restore ecosystems, thus ensuring the continued provision of ecosystem services and avoiding dangerous or irreversible environmental change.

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New strategic plan: Elements for the 2020 Mission by (J. Shimura)

• Another option: by 2020 to halt biodiversity loss, and restore it to ecologically sound levels, and enhance the capacity of ecosystems to provide services, …

•Now we recognize the 2010 target (significant reduction in the speed of biodiversity loss) may not be achieved. “Halt by 2020” seems unrealistic.•However, it depends on definition and indicator of biodiversity.•Scientists can advise indicators and feasibility of these options.

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Another problem“Smart” depends on nations

• CBD has agreed…– Biodiversity conservation– Sustainable use of its component– Access for Benefit Sharing

• Ecosystem approach

Living in Harmony with Nature

Evaluation of ecosystem services

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Significant and largely irreversible changes to species diversity

– Humans have increased the species extinction rate by as much as 1,000 times over background rates typical over the planet’s history (medium certainty)

– 10–30% of mammal, bird, and amphibian species are currently threatened with extinction (medium to high certainty)

MA 2005

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Past & Future Extinction in Japanese vascular plants (Fujita, Yahara, Matsuda et al. in prep)

55.3 species

6000

6200

6400

6600

6800

7000

20002020

20402060

20802100

Endemic species lossNon-endemic species lossN

umbe

r of

indi

geno

us f

lora

in J

apan

Year

Future553

Extinct7.9%

8.6 species

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

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種数

ほぼ絶滅絶滅・野生絶滅CR(PE*)EX or EW

No

of e

xtin

ctio

n

Un kno

wn

Past

Year

6.3-times larger

Extinction rates(per decade)

*PE = Probably extinct (no report of extant grids)

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How many reserves should be requiredfor conservation?

-Complementarity analysis (Margules,C.R & Pressey,R.L., 2000)-

・ half of the taxa : 20 grids （ 0.4% in Japan ） were required・ All threatened taxa: 251 grids （ 5.4% in Japan ） were required

Maximizing the number of species conserved with the minimum land

Number of conserved grids

Nu

mbe

r of

ext

inct

ions

in n

ext

100

year

s

20(0.4%)

251(5.6%)

Japan includes4457grids

Rat

io o

fC

onse

rvat

ion

Are

a ％

(Nat

iona

l par

k et

c..)100

0

50

0100200300400500600

0 50 100 150 200 250 300

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Today’s my talk - overview

• Role of scientists

• Check & seek SMART policy for CBD

• Indicators for Post 2010 Target of CBD– Direct evaluation of biodiversity and

ecosystem services– Efforts of conservation and sustainable use– Socio-economic incentives to pay for

ecosystem services

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Indicators must be

• Measurable throughout the world– NaGISA, Ecol Footpr?

• Verified whether the target is satisfied or not in the future– Extinct sp., habitat loss

• To encourage SMART action plans.– Good practice guideline for actions plans

It is difficult to satisfy all of these.

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Direct indicators to measure biodiversity and ES

• Ecological Footprint Living Planet IndexConserve both threatened & common species?

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Indicators by efforts of conservation and sustainable use

• Area of MPAs– Definition of MPA is diverse among nations– Cultural diversity is important too.

• Number of action plans

• Area of potential habitat by HEP– Rarely proved if this actually conserve habitat– Rarely used it for mitigation of threatened spe

cies

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Make linkage between various organizations for biodiversity

In the case of Japan• Japan Biodiversity Outlook by MoEJ, J-BON

• Millennium Ecosystem Assessment– Japan Subglobal Assessment by UN Univ.

• SATOYAMA Initiative by MoEJ, UN Univ.

• UNESCO’s Man & Biosphere Programme by MEXT, Yokohama Nat’l Univ.

I feel overlapping of these programs and lack of communication between them.

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Indicators using socio-economic incentives to pay for ecosystem services

• For Cap & Trade– Catch limit of fisheries (ITQ system)– Bio-banking, biodiversity offsets

• Eco-labels (FSC, MSC)– Good, but probably may not used for

numerical goals

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Global Millennium Ecosystem Assessment(MA) scheme Indirect DFs

• Demographic• Economic• Sociopolitical• Cultural & Religious• Science &

Technology

Ecosystem S.•Biodiversity•Supporting S.•Provisioning S.•Regulating S.•Cultural S.

Human Well-being•Security•Basic material…•Health•Good relationship…•Freedom of choice..

Japan NSBAP*1. Over-use2. Under-use3. Disturbance• Climate Change

Direct DFsA) Habitat changeB) Climate changeC) Invasive speciesD) Over-exploitationE) Pollution

*NSBAP=Nat’l Strategy for Biodiversity and Action Plan

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（ Global Biodiversity Outlook 2: GBO ２）Main direct drivers of change

in biodiversity and ecosystems

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Forecast of invasive species expansion

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Threatened plant database in JapanDatabase contents• Candidate taxa: 1,972 taxa• Field investigations in 1994-1995 and

2003-2004• Unit of investigation: 10×10km2 map

grids • Area: 3,781 map grids covered 84.8 % in

Japan• Participant: over 530 amateurs and

botanists • Records: 34,662 raw data

Recorded speciesper grid

0

1 - 45 - 89 - 2122 - 2829 - 3637 - 4647 - 6263 - 8485 - 108

No data

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Catch and marine trophic index in Japan

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Changes in the Marine Trophic Index

GBO2Pauly D., Watson R. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B;2005;360:415-423

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Seek simplicity, but distrust it

--Alfred N Whitehead--Alfred N Whitehead-- Begon, Harper, Townsend “Ecology”-- Begon, Harper, Townsend “Ecology”

Seek simple indicators, but distrust them.Seek simple indicators, but distrust them.Experts (scientists) judgment is very importaExperts (scientists) judgment is very importa

nt, rather than indicators. However, we nent, rather than indicators. However, we need indicators!ed indicators!

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多様性損失指数Expected loss of biodiversity

• ELB = B (1/T)

　＝生物多様性貢献度　　 × 絶滅リスク上昇

Contribution of biodiversity

×increment of extinction risk

Overfishing of tunas T: ca 1 million to ca 500yrs (1/T) = 0.002Small habitat loss of VU sp. T: 100 yrs to 99yrs (1/T) = 0.001

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Biodiversity Asian Strategies by Eco-Risk COE

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Thank you for attention!

I like to try real time case studies with field ecologists!

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Shiretoko World Heritage

Pelagic fish management

Mongoose eradication program at Amami Island

Mainichi Shimbun

N. IshiiH.M. at Shiretoko

Plant Red Data Book

Deer managementHokkaido, Kanagawa

EXPO2005 at Aichi,Revision of RDB

Bear management in Hokkaido, Shikoku

Cons. Committee of WWF Japan

External adviser of Nissui Co. Ltd.

Pew Marine Cons.Fellow 2007