high risk scenario - weather.govhigh risk scenario •cape values 4000-5000 j/kg – very unstable...
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![Page 1: High Risk Scenario - weather.govHigh Risk Scenario •CAPE values 4000-5000 J/kg – very unstable atmosphere •Latest weather model guidance shows a significant shift in severe storm](https://reader033.vdocuments.mx/reader033/viewer/2022050323/5f7d4ba234e649570f7d04c1/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
High Risk Scenario • Early Morning (5-6am), Friday, July 3rd, 2015
• It has been a hot and humid week
Temperatures in the upper 90s
Dewpoints in the low 70s
heat indices 105-110
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National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
High Risk Scenario
• CAPE values 4000-5000 J/kg – very unstable atmosphere
• Latest weather model guidance shows a significant shift in severe storm potential for late afternoon/evening as upper short wave digs a bit farther south
• Early morning Storm Prediction Center Outlook which was previously a slight risk, looks like this:
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National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
SPC Day 1 Outlook
HIGH
SLGT
MDT
ISSUED: 1057Z 07/03/2015 VALID: 03/1200Z-04/1200Z FORECASTER: FAKE
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National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
Widespread Damage?
• If it comes to fruition, widespread damaging winds, perhaps a derecho event, with leading edge tornadic spin-ups – all look like a real possibility
• Most likely timing will be 4-7pm across the DC and Baltimore metro areas.
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National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
Radar Confirmation
3:00 pm
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National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
Reports Thus Far Several reports of 60-70 and even one 80
mph winds
Sightings of a tornado –
unconfirmed but damage to homes
and trees has occurred
Atmosphere remains prime for continued long-lived damaging
wind event with leading edge brief
tornadoes
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National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
The next day