high on protein: insights into a consumer search for … · source: nielsen homescan total shopper...

GLOBAL FOOD FORUM

Andrew MandzyDirector of Strategic InsightsNielsen

HIGH ON PROTEIN: INSIGHTS INTO A CONSUMER SEARCH FOR HEALTH

http://www.globalfoodforums.com/proteinseminar/

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The economy has improved, but

challenges remain

AGENDA FOR TODAY’S PRESENTATION

HEALTH & WELLNESS

Americans are more focused on Health &

Wellness

CONSUMER LANDSCAPE

PROTEIN TRENDS

Macroeconomic factors and Health & Wellness continue

to impact protein trends

LOOKING AHEAD

Aging Boomers and a more multicultural younger

generation will shift the consumer landscape

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SHOPPERS ARE INCREASINGLY CONFIDENT, BUT……..

Source: NIELSEN GLOBAL SURVEY, NIELSEN ONLINE U.S. SURVEY APR 2015, Bureau of Labor Statistics

Consumer Confidence IndexMar 2016

Chg vs Prev Month

U.S. 96

35% Living paycheck to paycheck

50% Concerned about their financial situation

UnemploymentMar 2016

Chg vs YA

5.0% -0.5 pts+2 pts

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BECAUSE CHALLENGES STILL REMAIN

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Income and Poverty in the United States: Impact on Poverty and Alternative Resource Measure by Age: 1981 to 2014

>9%UNEMPLOYMENT NUMBERS DON’T TELL THE FULL STORY

Unemployed + Underutilized

-6.5%STAGNANT WAGE GROWTH

Median HH income down since 2007

COST PRESSURES HAVE ERODED DISPOSABLE INCOME

Housing, Insurance all greater % of consumer expenditures

15% HOUSEHOLDS LIVING IN POVERTY

When looking at <18, 21% are living under poverty

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INCOME POLARIZATION GROWING, SQUEEZING THE MIDDLE CLASS

Source: US Census Bureau

2009 2014

INCOME INEQUALITY RATIO BETWEEN MOST & LEAST AFFLUENT HOUSEHOLDS (TOP 10% and BOTTOM 10%)

11.4Widest

gap ever

1967

9.2 12.8

2013

12.1

The number of HOUSEHOLDS among most and leastaffluent cohorts is growing

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MEAT MUST TARGET EACH SIDE OF THE INCOME GAP, UNLIKE SEAFOOD OR PRODUCE

Source: Nielsen Homescan TSV Dollar Index

TOTAL FOOD

BAKERY MEAT DELI PRODUCE SEAFOOD

MOST AFFLUENT AND LEAST AFFLUENT

Difference in Spend between

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IN 2015, CONSUMERS DID WALK AWAY FROM MEAT

Source: Nielsen Homescan Total Shopper View Specialty Panel, 52 weeks ending 12/26/15

ANNUAL SPEND PER HOUSEHOLD

ANNUAL TRIP FREQUENCY

VS.

YA

HOUSEHOLD PENETRATION

96.3% 20.2 $393.20

-2.8%

CU

RR

ENT

-0.2pts -4.7%

~245,000 fewer HHs bought fresh meat in 2015 = ~$74 MM in lost sales

FRESH MEAT- ALL OUTLETS, TOTAL U.S.

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MOST AND LEAST AFFLUENT REACT DIFFERENTLY TO CHANGING MEAT PRICES

Source: Nielsen Homescan Panel Omnibus Survey of 23,409 adults fielded in March 2015

– More likely to claim they would buy meat less often, buy less expensive cuts, buy smaller packages, or stop buying altogether

WHEN MEAT PRICES

INCREASE:

– More likely to claim their behavior would not change

– Also more likely to claim they’d seek marginal savings via Club

MOST AFFLUENT HOUSEHOLDS

LEASTAFFLUENT HOUSEHOLDS

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MEAT SPEND DECLINED MORE RAPIDLY AMONG LEAST AFFLUENT HOUSEHOLDS

Source: Nielsen Homescan TSV 2015

-10.0%

-8.0%

-6.0%

-4.0%

-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

Total FreshMeat

Total FreshBeef / Veal

Total FreshChicken

Total FreshPork

Total FreshTurkey

Most Affluent

Least Affluent$180 $132 $87 $56 $68 $60

$37 $26

$372 $275

CHANGE AND ABSOLUTE ANNUAL SPEND BY MEAT TYPE

TOTAL FRESH MEAT

TOTAL FRESH BEEF/VEAL

TOTAL FRESH CHICKEN

TOTAL FRESH PORK

TOTAL FRESH TURKEY

Least affluent spent less on Chicken last year, driven by declines in Chicken Breast

Switching in Beef common among both cohorts

Least affluent now spend moreon pork than chicken, and

increased spend on Pork Roasts

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Conventional Grocery Share of Food Spend

Declined 4.5 pointsSince 2011 Super: +3.2

Club: +0.9Value: +0.6Dollar: +0.4Online: +0.2

Retail is more fragmented than ever

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NEW STORES ARE SMALLER FORMAT STORES SKEWING TOWARDS LOWER INCOME SHOPPERS

Source: Nielsen TDLinx

35%

33%

19%

8%5%

1%

Dollar Stores C-Stores Drug Stores Grocery Supercenters Warehouse Club

% of U.S. Store Count Expansion by Retail Channel – January 2016 vs. December 2007

23,827 new

stores68% of new stores are channels that skew towards lower income shoppers

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RETAIL FRAGMENTATION EXISTS EVEN IN FRESH DEPARTMENTS

Source: Source: Nielsen Homescan Total Shopper View Specialty Panel,

SHARE OF CHANNEL SHOPPERS PURCHASING FRESH WITHIN EACH CHANNEL

94% VALUE GROCERY 89% PREMIER FRESH

GROCERY SEGMENTS

CONVENIENCEGAS

34%

WAREHOUSE/CLUB

89%

MASS /SUPERCENTER

85%

GROCERY

99%

DRUG

21%

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MEAT SALES DECLINED IN GROCERY, BUT GREW IN MASS AND CLUB$ Sales % Chg by channel

52 weeks ending 12/26/15

-1.0%

3.4%

0.9%

GROCERY MASS MERCH CLUB

GROCERY MASS CLUB

Meat Sales growing in Mass and Club.

Grocery still maintains a majority of the Meat dollars

Other channels focusing more on fresh foods

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FULLY COOKED MEAT IS KEY TO CAPITALIZING ON DEMAND FOR CONVENIENCE

Source: Nielsen Perishables Group Fresh Facts® 52 Weeks Ending 11/28/15

DollarGrowth

Volume Growth

Fully Cooked Meat 2.7% 0.9%

Chicken 4.8% 3.0%

Other Meat 4.3% 3.9%

Pork 0.7% -2.4%

Vegetables/ Stuffing 4.6% 1.0%

Beef -12.2% -20.5%

Turkey -1.8% -4.3%

Stir Fry/ Fajita Strips 6.6% -4.8%

Lamb 2.1% 0.4%

Chicken 48%

Other Meat 22%

Pork 10%

Vegetables/ Stuffing

8%

Beef 7%

Turkey 3%

Stir Fry/ Fajita Strips

2%

Lamb 0%

Other Meat Includes meal prep and prepared items such as meat

balls, burritos, and meat loaf

Dollar growth seen across all meat super categories suggesting fully cooked meat

is not cannibalizing the department

Dollar Share of Fully Cooked MeatTotal US

It is a primary engine for convenience because it is growing & incremental

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health#1 U.S. consumer concern after the economy is

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CONSUMERS ARE SEEKING OUT HEALTHIER FOOD OPTIONS

Source: Nielsen two week online survey (April 2016) of 1176 respondents – chg vs. 2014

66%EAT HEALTHIER

NOW THAN BEFORE

64% Try to buy healthier foods

60% Quality trumps price

Do online research on nutrition, fitness tips, healthy recipes

57%

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THEY ARE INCREASINGLY MONITORING LABELS

Source: NMI, all rights reserved; Harris Poll March 2014/Health Labels Survey, Food Information Council Foundation 2015 Survey

HELPFUL LABELS • Fresh• Reduced Calories• Natural• Lightly sweetened• Low in sugar

LESS HELPFUL/MIXED ATTITUDES• Healthy• Light/Lite

More than a third (36%) say that “chemicals” in food are their top food safety concern

... and basing purchase decisions on them(2013 vs 2006)

42% 45%

55% 54%

I select foods based on the ingredient

list

I select foods based on the nutritional panel

20132006

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SHOPPERS ARE ACTIVELY CHOOSING BETTER OPTIONS

Source: Nielsen two week online survey (April 2016) of 1176 respondents

53%will pay more for foods that

promote health benefits

48%choose local, natural and

organic when possible

40%are willing to sacrifice taste for a healthier

option

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HEALTH ATTRIBUTES ARE INFLUENCERS OF FOOD PURCHASES

% who ranked important in influencing purchase


Made from vegetables/fruits62%

High in protein61%

High in fiber57%

Portion control57%

Whole grain57%

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11%

51%

39%

14%

50%

37%

7%

38%55%

High Protein (>20 grams per serving)

Medium Protein (10-20 grams per serving)

Low Protein (<10 grams per serving)

CHICKEN BREAST (3 OZ.) PORK LOIN (3 OZ.)RIBEYE BEEF STEAK (3 OZ.)

Q: Please select how much protein you believe a serving of each food type has by selecting the appropriate response. (Correct response is highlighted)

21%

46%

32%

PEANUT BUTTER (2 T.)

1/5 of shoppers think PB has as much protein as fresh meat! Proactive education is necessary

MEAT DOES NOT GET DUE CREDIT FOR ITS PROTEIN CONTENT

Source: Nielsen Omnibus Survey

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21Source:Nielsen Advanced Fresh Perspective; Total U.S.

CENTER PERIMETER

Shr. pt. chg. vs YA

2015

2014

2013

36.8%

36.5%

35.6%

63.2%

63.3%

64.4%

(+0.3)

(+0.9)

Dollar % Share

THE FRESH FOODS PERIMETER OF THE STORE IS GROWINGOver two years, share of perimeter sales to total food sales increased 1.2 share points

$12.4B Growth

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OVER THE LAST YEAR, HEALTH & WELLNESS CLAIMS OUTPACING RETAIL GROWTH

Note: Wellness claims are not additiveSource: Nielsen Answers, Wellness Track, Total U.S. – All Outlets Combined,, 52-weeks ending 1/23/2016,

Dollar growth % chg vs YA

+16%

Total Store$821 Billion

+2%

Organic products

$14 Billion

+11% +17%

Natural products

$38 Billion

GMO Free products$16 Billion

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LEADING H&W CLAIMS ARE FOCUSED ON PRODUCT TRANSPARENCY

Note: Wellness claims are not additiveSource: Nielsen Answers, Wellness Track, Total U.S. – All Outlets Combined, plus Convenience, 52-weeks ending 12/26/2015 versus 4-years ago

$29.0

$22.5

$15.8 $13.7 $13.3 $11.2

$8.4 $7.4 $5.9 $5.9

Change in $ Sales (billions) from 2011

Top 10 Wellness Claims with Biggest Absolute Long-Term Sales Growth

UPC-coded items

Claims growing in latest year (absolute dollars)

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+25% CAGR+34 more items

ANCIENT GRAINS

+7.6% CAGR+100 more items

NO ARTIFICIAL COLORS/ FLAVORS


GMO FREE


GLUTEN FREE


NO HIGH FRUCTOSE

CORN SYRUP


KOSHER


NATURAL

+15% CAGR+117 more items

ORGANIC


SOY


NO ARTIFICIAL SWEETENERS

BIGGEST AND FASTEST GROWING H&W

CLAIMSTOTAL FOOD

HEALTHY CLAIMS ARE GROWING IN SALES, AND IN ITEM COUNTS

Source: Nielsen x AOC. Period Ending December 26, 2015; growth since 2012 highlighted claims present in >75% categories

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GROWTH IN NATURAL IS HAPPENING ACROSS THE STORE$ Sales % chg vs YAG

SOURCE: NIELSEN WELLNESS TRACK 52 weeks ending 1/23/16

DAIRY

TOTAL DEPT NATURAL ORGANIC

+1.5% +13.7%+12.1%

GMO FREE

+9.9%

FROZEN FOODS

+1.1% +22.3%+8.5% +21.1%

MEAT & SEAFOOD

+1.1% +10.3%+25.9% +11.1%

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RETAILERS ARE INCREASING ASSORTMENT OF MEAT WITH CLAIMSSKU Efficiency for meat with any claim increased at a faster rate than conventional

Conventional Meat:

↓ 2%

Meat with Any Claim:

↑ 11%

Impressions per Store/Week

Dollar velocity of meat with any claim increased 21% when compared to YAGO

Chicken with a claim comprises 16% of total

fresh chicken impressions

Source: Nielsen Perishables Group FreshFacts®, 52 weeks ending 11.28.15

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H&W CLAIMS ARE DRIVING GROWTH IN MEAT

Source: Nielsen xAOC; Nielsen Global Health & Wellness Survey

-1%

11%14%

4%

34%

0%

13%

-4%

6%

27% 29%

13%19%

2%

30%

6%

FAT PRESENCE NATURAL HORMONEPRESENCE

PRESERVATIVEPRESENCE

ANTIBIOTICFREE

SALT ORSODIUM

PRESENCE

ORGANIC TRANS FATPRESENCE

DOLLAR SALES COMPOUND ANNUAL GROWTH RATE 2011-2015

TOTAL STORE MEAT

LABEL CLAIMS SHARE OF TOTAL MEAT SALES, 2015

29.0% 8.1% 7.1% 6.2% 1.9% 1.7% 1.5% 1.2%

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Protein drives a GROWING

SUBSET of these

CONTRACTING CATEGORIES

PROTEIN IS A GROWTH DRIVER ACROSS THE STORE

Source: NIelsen

$0 $100 $200 $300 $400 $500 $600 $700 $800

Shelf Stable Juices

Frozen Pizza

Hot Cereal

Specialty Grain

Frozen Appetizers

Liquid Coffee

Frozen Breakfast Sandwiches

Salty Snacks

Frozen Entrees

Wholesome Snacks

PROTEIN CLAIM DOLLAR SALES & GROWTH

14%

20%

16%

12%

20%

121%

45%72%

156%

25%

29

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INNOVATION IN FROZEN ENTREES ALIGNS WITH CHANGING CONSUMER DEMAND

Sources: Food Business News; MultiAd Kwikee

Gluten Free, Simple Ingredients & Protein

Nestlé is repositioning the Lean Cuisine brand to align with new health trends in the United States.

The Stouffer’s brand is expanding with a new Fit Kitchen line of high-protein entrées.

Protein call out

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PLANT BASED PROTEIN BRANDS ARE GROWINGPulses and plat based brands are seen as meat substitutes

Source: Nielsen Answers AOD. *Aggregate bassed on list of plant based branmds

$2.7 Billion +7.8% vs YA

Plant Based Brands* $36.5 Million +8.7% vs YA

Lentils

$8.6 Million +1.5% vs YA

Garbanzo/Chickpeas

BEANS $ OVERALL ARE DOWN -0.7% VS YA

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HEALTH & WELLNESS TRENDS WILL BE IMPACTED BY A FEW KEY DRIVERS

Demographic shifts

Aging population w/ evolving needs

Food as medicine

Preventing and treating ailments

Technology

Consumers using digital devices to monitor/manage health

32

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HEALTH CLAIMS SKEW TOWARDS HIGHER INCOME HOUSEHOLDS AND MILLENNIALSPOPULAR WELLNESS CLAIMS $ Sales per 1000 Households Index

Source: Nielsen Answers On-Demand Syndicated Panel, 52 weeks ending 12/26/2015

• Important to understand assortment opportunities across cohorts

Ancient Grains

Cage Free

GMO Free

Gluten Free

Low Glycemic

HFCS Free

Hormone/Antibiotic Free

No MSG

Natural

Omega 3 Type

Organic

Probiotic/Prebiotic

Index is: 120 or greater between 80–120 80 or less

<$20KHH Income

$ $$$

$100K+HH Income

Millennials FH Age <35

BoomersFH Age 55-64

UPC-coded items

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KEY DEMOGRAPHICS WILLING TO PAY THE PREMIUM FOR BENEFITSValues-driven products attract unique and key consumers important to retailers

Source: Nielsen Perishables Group utilizing Spectra

OrganicConventional Vegetarian Fed

Older Bustling FamiliesLarge HHs with Older Dual Income Families

Young Transitionals7.5% of Households

Any Size HHs, No Children < 3542% have Roommates

32% are Married

High Income8.6% of HouseholdsHousehold income

>$150,000

Fresh Chicken

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BOOMERS ARE LOOKING FOR SPECIFIC BENEFITS 43% of Boomers are looking for more protein in their diets

38%30%

26%

37%

62%57%

49%43%

Fiber Heart Healthy Healthy oils/fats Protein

% of Cohort Claiming They Want More of the Following

Millennials Boomers

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ALMOST 4 OUT OF 10 SUFFER FROM AN AILMENT

But many turn to food as medicine to help manage overall health

Source: World Health Organization; Centers for Disease Control 2012

Nielsen Ailment Panel 2015

Including some of the foremost causes of preventable death… heart disease, stroke, type 2

diabetes & certain types of cancer

39%Suffer from an ailment

50%Do not seek

medical attention

They turn to OTC products, exercise, and better eating to improve their

situation

75%believe they can manage

many of their health issues through proper nutrition

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FACEBOOK TWITTERINSTAGRAM GOOGLE + PINTEREST

Source: Nielsen two week online survey (April 2016) of 1176 respondents – chg vs. 2014

74%(-1 pt.)

32%(+ 13 pt.)

31%(+2 pt.)

27%(+ 1 pt.)

25%(+ 5 pt.)

% who use social networks to share health & wellness information and tips

SOCIAL MEDIA IS A CRITICAL MARKETING TOOL FOR HEALTH & WELLNESS INFORMATION SHARING

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FAMILY AND FRIENDS, GREATEST INFLUENCE WHEN MAKING HEALTHY DECISIONS


% who ranked important to make healthier product choices

54%

Family and friends

Internet blogs and social media sites

News reports or television shows

Packaging claims

29%

27%

29%

Store signs or displays23%

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TECHNOLOGY IN HEALTH & WELLNESS WILL CONTINUE TO GROW….BUT TODAY DEMAND IS LIMITED

SHP Consumer Survey, February 2014, Shopwell app

Use of Technology in Health Management

3%

3%

4%

4%

4%

5%

8%

9%

10%

3%

3%

5%

8%

8%

7%

7%

4%

6%

2%

4%

6%

5%

7%

4%

4%

4%

11%

14%

18%

9%

12%

13%

8%

8%

7%

10%

78%

72%

76%

71%

68%

77%

74%

77%

62%

Ask questions to health care providers

Search specific symptoms to determine…

Give you healthy tips

Monitor your blood pressure

Give you healthy recipes

Monitor your heart rate

Track your distance for a specific walk, jog,…

Track your calories

Monitor your weight

Almost every day A few times a week About once a week A few times or less Not used in last 3 mos.

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Understand the growth of protein across the store

Wellness claims highlighting protein presence, and plant based proteins will continue to drive

growth. Gain an understanding of what the opportunities are across the store.

Look ahead towards future trends

Older shoppers who are looking for more health benefits in the foods they consume.

Protein is something that older shoppers are seeking in their diets. Technology will allow for

more education for younger shoppers.

Harness H&W as a growth driver

More HHs are embracing health, and claims are very effective with most affluent; more aggressive education on meat H&W is

necessary to gain H&W credentials

Understand your consumer’s profiles

Consumers are making tradeoffs, but still seek out sources of protein. Understanding where tradeoffs are being made is critical, and how

they purchase proteins.

THANK YOU!

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high on protein: insights into a consumer search for … · source: nielsen homescan total shopper...

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