Denmark 100% renewable Energy

Henrik LundProfessor in Energy PlanningAalborg University, Denmark

CoEnerCat Congrés d‘Energia de Catalunya Barcelona 25 November 2013

Aalborg University, Denmark

Jutland/Denmark:

• 25% wind power (120,000 owners)• High share of the world’s offshore power • 30% Distributed Generation • 50% of electricity supplied by CHP

100% renewable energy solutions !

• What we already have done in Denmark

• What we aim to do in the future… (100% Renewable Energy)

• How this can be done (…illustrated by the IDA Energy Plan 2030)

• Recent developments in smart energy systems marked based integration of wind power

The first oil crisis in 1973The Danish energy consumption in 1972

Primary Energy Supply 1972

Oil Coal Natural Gas Renewable Energy

30 Years of active Energy Planning

30 years of active Government and Parliament Energy Policies.

Including NGO alternativestrategies and public debate

Difficult Economical situation In Denmark in the early 80ies

Net Foreign Depth in Denmark

-50.0

-40.0

-30.0

-20.0

-10.0

0.0

10.0

1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985

Year

Per

cent

of G

DP

Unemployment in Denmark

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980

Year

Per

cent

of p

opul

atio

n

Energy Policies: The 80ies

Objective in focus:

Socio Economy(Jobs andbalance of payment)

Feasibility Studies methodologies

Mid 80´ies: • Heat planning procedure in all municipalities • feasibility studies including jobs and balance of payment issues in the priority • made possible for authorities to run job creation and innovative energy policies and planning

Foreign Depth

Net Foreign Depth in Denmark

-50.0

-40.0

-30.0

-20.0

-10.0

0.0

10.0

1945 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005

Year

Per

cent

of G

DP

Job creation

Unemployment in Denmark

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

1945 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005

Year

Per

cent

of p

opul

atio

n

40 years with a stable energy consumption

World Primary Energy Consumption

0

100

200

300

400

1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

1000

PJ

RES

Nuclear

Ngas

Oil

Coal

Domestic heating

020406080

100120140160

1972 1980 1988 1996 2003

Inde

x 19

72=1

00

Heated Space and Heat Demand

Space Heat demand

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

1972 1980 1988 1996 2003 2009

PJ District Heating

Distributed CHP

Large CHP

Boilers0

50

100

150

200

250

300

1972 1980 1988 1996 2003 2009

PJ Fuel for House Heating

RES

Coal

Ngas

Oil

Danish electricityproduction

Big power stations

Small CHP plants

Wind turbines

At present Denmark is still self-sufficient

0

200

400

600

800

10001200

1400

1972 1980 1988 1996 2004 2012

PJDanish Energy Production

Oil Natural gas Renewable Energy

0

200

400

600

800

10001200

1400

1972 1980 1988 1996 2004 2012

PJDanish Primary Energy Supply

Oil Coal Natural Gas Renewable Energy

Danish oil production and prognosis

The Danish Energy Authority, 2002

The Danish Energy Authority, 2006

Export of energy

technology and fuels

Value of Danis h E nerg y P roduc ts

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 20051.0

00

MD

KK

Total

O il

Natural

G asC oal

E lec tric ity

Danis h export of E nerg y T ec hnolog y

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006

1.0

00

MD

KK

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

20%

E x port

S hare

of Total

E x ports

Value of Danis h E nerg y P roduc ts

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

1.0

00

MD

KK

Natural

gas

C rude

oil

Export of Danish Energy Technology

3 Challenges

• Climate Change

• Security of supply (Fossil fuels)

• Industry, economy and jobs

Danish CO2 emissons

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

'90 '91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07

Year

Mio

.ton Actual

Corrected

World Primary Energy Consumption

0

100

200

300

400

1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

1000

PJ

RES

Nuclear

Ngas

Oil

Coal

Danis h export of E nerg y T ec hnolog y

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006

1.0

00

MD

KK

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

20%

E xport

S hare

of Total

E xports

The long-term Objective of Danish Energy Policy

Expressed by former Prime Minister Anders Fogh Rasmussen in his opening speech to the Parliament in 2006 and in several political agreements since then:

To convert to 100% Renewable Energy

Prime minister 16 November 2008: ”We will free Denmark totally from fossil fuels like oil, coal and gas”

Prime minister 16 November 2008:”… position Denmark in the heart of green growth”

New Government September 2011

• 100% RES by 2050• 100% RES for electricity and

heating by 2035• No coal on power plants and no oil

for heating households by 2030• 50% wind in electricity supply by

2020• 40% CO2 reduction by 2020

compared to 1990

Plans how to make the transformation to 100%

Renewable Energy Systems

Energi System Analyse Model

www.EnergyPLAN.eu

Wind energy

Input:• Data from total productions

of wind turbines in the TSO Eltra area (West Denmark).

Wind production Eltra 1996 (2042 MWh pr MW)

0

100

200

300

400

500

0 1098 2196 3294 4392 5490 6588 7686 8784

Hours

MW

h/h

Wind production Eltra 2000 (2083 MWh pr MW)

0

500

1000

1500

2000

0 1098 2196 3294 4392 5490 6588 7686 8784

Hours

MW

h/h

Wind production Eltra 2001 (1964 MWh pr MW)

0

500

1000

1500

2000

0 1098 2196 3294 4392 5490 6588 7686 8784

Hours

MW

h/h

At present 99% of Danish Wind Power is used in Denmark to meet Domestic demands

ByHenrik Lund, Frede Hvelplund, Poul A. Østergaard,

Bernd Möller, Brian Vad MathiesenDepartment of Development and Planning, Aalborg University, Aalborg

Anders N. Andersen EMD International, NOVI Research Park, Aalborg, Denmark

Poul Erik Morthorst, Kenneth Karlsson, Peter Meibom and Marie Münster

Risø DTU, National Laboratory for Sustainable Energy, Roskilde, Denmark

Jesper Munksgaard Pöyry, Copenhagen, Denmark

Peter KarnøeDepartment of Organization, Copenhagen Business School,

Copenhagen,Denmark

Henrik Wenzel, Institute of Chemical Engineering, University of Southern Denmark, Odense,

Denmark

Hans Henrik LindboeEa Energy Analyses, Copenhagen, Denmark

A palette of solutions

• Flexible consumption• Electricity storage• CAES systems• Regulation of CHP plants • Electric heating• Heat pumps• Electric cars• Stopping of wind turbines• Production of hydrogen• Transmission abroad• V2G

Conclusions:

• Regulation of CHP and heat storage (implemented in DK in 2004): Makes possible to integrate 20% Wind Power (and 50% CHP)

• Adding large heat pumps and heat storage capacity to existing CHP plants: Makes possible to integrate 40% Wind Power (and 50% CHP)

• Electricity for transportation (integrate approx. 60% wind power)

• Important to involve the new flexible technologies in the grid stabilisation task

Three targets in the IDA Energy Year 2006

• To maintain security of energy supply

• To cut CO2 emissions by 50 % by year 2030 compared to the 1990 level

• To create employment and to quadruple the export in the energy industry

During the IDA Energy Year 2006

• 40 meetings and seminars by the IDA groups and societies

• More than 1600 participants• Coordination by the IDA

Committee for the environment• Overall energy system analysis

at Alborg University

Energi System Analyse Model

www.EnergyPLAN.eu

IDA Energiplan 2030

100% Renewable Energy in 2050

Primær energiforsyning 100% VE i år 2050, PJ

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1,000

Ref 2030 IDA 2030 IDA 2050 Bio IDA 2050 Vind IDA 2050

Eksport

VE-el

Solvarme

Biomasse

Naturgas

Olie

Kul

Biomass potentials and consumtion in IDA 2030, PJ

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

DEA potential IDA 2030 Max potential

Waste

Energy crops Slurry fibre fraction

Slurry biogas

WoodStraw

Conclusions

• 100 Percent Renewable is physically possible and the first toward 2030 is feasible to the Danish Society.

• The methodology of design is a very complex process. The combination of a creative phaseinvolving many single experts and detailed system analyses seems efficient and can be recommended.

CEESA Project 2011/2012Transport: Electric vehicles is best from an energy efficient point of view. But gas and/or liquid fuels is needed to transform to 100%.

Biomass:.. is a limited resource and can not satisfy all the transportation needs.

Consequence… Electricity from Wind (and similar resources) needs to be converted to gas and liquied fuels in the long-term perspective…

Case: Skagen CHP plant

Skagen CHP plant

• CHP capacity: 13 MWe and 16 MWth (Three 4.3 MWe Wärtsilä Natural Gas engines

• 250 MWh heat storage• 37 MW peak load boilers• 10 MW electric boiler• Heat Pumps Investment under consideration

Operated together with a Waste Incineration plant (heat only).

Primary reserves (frequency controlled production)

Secondary reserves (controlled by status of primary reserves)

Manuel regulating power (Tertiary reserves)

30 sec15 min

Intra day market

Day ahead spot market

1 hour > 12 hours

The main electricity markets

The M.Sc. Programmes in Environm. Managem. & Sustainable Energy Planning and Management, 8. Semester, http://people.plan.aau.dk/~ana

Skagen

• Day ahead spot market in Jan. 2005

• Regulating power market in approx. 2006

• Automatic primary reserve market in Nov. 2009

Cost of entering primary automatic reserves market

• Cost of making +- 1.4 MW available on the engines: Only approx. 27.000 EUR.

• Investing in 10 MW electric boiler: Approx 0.7 MEUR.

Conclusions

• Denmark can operate a system with 20% Wind and 50% CHP

• By adding heat pumps to the CHP units the integration of wind power can be raised to approx. 40% with-out loosing efficiency (nor wind power)

• Including the CHP plants in the various electricity markets is essential.

• Once the markets are open for CHP plants the cost of entering them seams small.

More information

http://energy.plan.aau.dk/book.php

www.energyplanning.aau.dk

• http://www.emd.dk/desire/skagen• http://www.emd.dk/el

www.EnergyPLAN.eu