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Page 1: HEDGEYE ASSET ALLOCATIONdocs.hedgeye.com/HE_TMS_4.6.16.pdf · This presentation is based on information from sources believed to be reliable. Hedgeye Risk Management is not responsible
Page 2: HEDGEYE ASSET ALLOCATIONdocs.hedgeye.com/HE_TMS_4.6.16.pdf · This presentation is based on information from sources believed to be reliable. Hedgeye Risk Management is not responsible

HEDGEYE 2

DISCLAIMER Hedgeye Risk Management is a registered investment advisor, registered with the State of Connecticut. Hedgeye Risk Management is not a broker dealer and does not provide investment advice to individuals. This research does not constitute an offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security. This research is presented without regard to individual investment preferences or risk parameters; it is general information and does not constitute specific investment advice. This presentation is based on information from sources believed to be reliable. Hedgeye Risk Management is not responsible for errors, inaccuracies or omissions of information. The opinions and conclusions contained in this report are those of Hedgeye Risk Management, and are intended solely for the use of Hedgeye Risk Management’s clients and subscribers. In reaching these opinions and conclusions, Hedgeye Risk Management and its employees have relied upon research conducted by Hedgeye Risk Management’s employees, which is based upon sources considered credible and reliable within the industry. Hedgeye Risk Management is not responsible for the validity or authenticity of the information upon which it has relied. TERMS OF USE This report is intended solely for the use of its recipient. Re-distribution or republication of this report and its contents are prohibited. For more detail please refer to the appropriate sections of the Hedgeye Services Agreement and the Terms of Use at www.hedgeye.com.

LEGAL

Page 3: HEDGEYE ASSET ALLOCATIONdocs.hedgeye.com/HE_TMS_4.6.16.pdf · This presentation is based on information from sources believed to be reliable. Hedgeye Risk Management is not responsible

3MO

4/11/2014 THE MACRO SHOW

April 6, 2016

HEDGEYE ASSET ALLOCATION

Page 4: HEDGEYE ASSET ALLOCATIONdocs.hedgeye.com/HE_TMS_4.6.16.pdf · This presentation is based on information from sources believed to be reliable. Hedgeye Risk Management is not responsible

3MO

4/11/2014 THE MACRO SHOW

April 6, 2016

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

CASH U.S.EQUITIES

INT'LEQUITIES

COMMODITIES FOREIGNEXCHANGE

FIXED INCOME

67%

0% 0%

18% 12%

70%

HEDGEYE ASSET ALLOCATION

The maximum preferred exposure for cash is 100%. The maximum preferred exposure for each of the other asset classes is 33%.

Page 5: HEDGEYE ASSET ALLOCATIONdocs.hedgeye.com/HE_TMS_4.6.16.pdf · This presentation is based on information from sources believed to be reliable. Hedgeye Risk Management is not responsible

1 2 3

#LOWERHIGHS

EARNINGS

EUROPE

Page 6: HEDGEYE ASSET ALLOCATIONdocs.hedgeye.com/HE_TMS_4.6.16.pdf · This presentation is based on information from sources believed to be reliable. Hedgeye Risk Management is not responsible

#LOWERHIGHS While industrial activity has stabilized against 13 months of negative comps, domestic service sector activity continues to slow off its mid-2015 highs. Headline ISM Services along with the Employment and New Orders components improved sequentially in March but the 9-month trend remains one of lower highs and lower lows. On the Labor Front, the trend has been similar as yesterday’s JOLTS data for February showed Job Openings decline by -159K, continuing the 8-month retreat off the mid-2015 peak.

Page 7: HEDGEYE ASSET ALLOCATIONdocs.hedgeye.com/HE_TMS_4.6.16.pdf · This presentation is based on information from sources believed to be reliable. Hedgeye Risk Management is not responsible

EARNINGS Q1 earnings season kicks-off next week with the bulge bracket banks leading the way (JPM next Wednesday). If you think we’ll follow-up an awful Q4 2015 reporting season (S&P revs -4.0% Earnings -6.9%) with a rebound, think again. We won’t be lapping bad comps until at least Q3 of this year (reported in Q4). In Q1 of 2015, 8/10 sectors saw Y/Y earnings growth, and the one sector with awful earnings was energy, where WTI averaged $48.57 vs. $33.63 in Q1 0f this year. Don’t get excited about Q1 earnings season. It will be more of the same. #thecycle.

Page 8: HEDGEYE ASSET ALLOCATIONdocs.hedgeye.com/HE_TMS_4.6.16.pdf · This presentation is based on information from sources believed to be reliable. Hedgeye Risk Management is not responsible

EUROPE Eurozone conflicted? If the Brexit debate wasn’t enough, German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble is out saying “It's a problem of our common currency union that we have ... an independent central bank, which conducts unified monetary policy for 19 member states that is less favorable for Germany than for other countries.” While we’ve identified the ECB’s conflicted policy framework for years, it underlines just how quickly risk can form across Eurozone assets. For the EUR/USD cross we continue to suggest trading the immediate term range, $1.11-$1.14.

Page 9: HEDGEYE ASSET ALLOCATIONdocs.hedgeye.com/HE_TMS_4.6.16.pdf · This presentation is based on information from sources believed to be reliable. Hedgeye Risk Management is not responsible

RESTAURANTS & CONSUMER STAPLES

HOWARD PENNEY

Page 10: HEDGEYE ASSET ALLOCATIONdocs.hedgeye.com/HE_TMS_4.6.16.pdf · This presentation is based on information from sources believed to be reliable. Hedgeye Risk Management is not responsible

HEDGEYE 10

HEDGEYE RESTAURANT IDEAS LIST

LONG LIST TRADE TREND TAIL SHORT LIST TRADE TREND TAIL

1) MCD McDonald's 1) CMG Chipotle Mexican Grill X X X2) PNRA Panera Bread Company - 2) DRI Darden Restaurants X X X3) YUM Yum! Brands - 3) PLAY Dave & Buster's - X X4) DFRG Del Frisco's Rest. Group - 4) SBUX Starbucks X X -5) ZOES Zoe's Kitchen - 5) BWLD Buffalo Wild Wings X X X

6) EAT Brinker International X X -7) SHAK Shake Shack - X X

LONG BENCH SHORT BENCH

PLKI Popeyes Louisiana Kitchen DNKN Dunkin' BrandsHABT Habit Restaurants JACK Jack In The Box SONC Sonic BLMN Bloomin' Brands

TXRH Texas Roadhouse QSR Restaurant Brands Int.

Bench = timing is not right, or research is in progress.

Page 11: HEDGEYE ASSET ALLOCATIONdocs.hedgeye.com/HE_TMS_4.6.16.pdf · This presentation is based on information from sources believed to be reliable. Hedgeye Risk Management is not responsible

HEDGEYE 11

HEDGEYE CONSUMER STAPLES IDEAS LIST

Page 12: HEDGEYE ASSET ALLOCATIONdocs.hedgeye.com/HE_TMS_4.6.16.pdf · This presentation is based on information from sources believed to be reliable. Hedgeye Risk Management is not responsible

3MO

4/11/2014 THE MACRO SHOW

April 6, 2016

HEDGEYE MACRO PROCESS: RATE OF CHANGE

Page 13: HEDGEYE ASSET ALLOCATIONdocs.hedgeye.com/HE_TMS_4.6.16.pdf · This presentation is based on information from sources believed to be reliable. Hedgeye Risk Management is not responsible

3MO

4/11/2014 THE MACRO SHOW

April 6, 2016

HEDGEYE SECTOR PERFORMANCE

Page 14: HEDGEYE ASSET ALLOCATIONdocs.hedgeye.com/HE_TMS_4.6.16.pdf · This presentation is based on information from sources believed to be reliable. Hedgeye Risk Management is not responsible

3MO

4/11/2014 THE MACRO SHOW

April 6, 2016

HEDGEYE SECTOR RELATIVE PERFORMANCE

Page 15: HEDGEYE ASSET ALLOCATIONdocs.hedgeye.com/HE_TMS_4.6.16.pdf · This presentation is based on information from sources believed to be reliable. Hedgeye Risk Management is not responsible

3MO

4/11/2014 THE MACRO SHOW

April 6, 2016

HEDGEYE STYLE FACTOR PERFORMANCE

Page 16: HEDGEYE ASSET ALLOCATIONdocs.hedgeye.com/HE_TMS_4.6.16.pdf · This presentation is based on information from sources believed to be reliable. Hedgeye Risk Management is not responsible

3MO

4/11/2014 THE MACRO SHOW

April 6, 2016

HEDGEYE RATES & SPREADS

Page 17: HEDGEYE ASSET ALLOCATIONdocs.hedgeye.com/HE_TMS_4.6.16.pdf · This presentation is based on information from sources believed to be reliable. Hedgeye Risk Management is not responsible

3MO

4/11/2014 THE MACRO SHOW

April 6, 2016

CFTC NON-COMMERCIAL NET LONG POSITIONING

Page 18: HEDGEYE ASSET ALLOCATIONdocs.hedgeye.com/HE_TMS_4.6.16.pdf · This presentation is based on information from sources believed to be reliable. Hedgeye Risk Management is not responsible

3MO

4/11/2014 THE MACRO SHOW

April 6, 2016

MARKET SHARE VOLUME & TOTAL VALUE TRADED

Page 19: HEDGEYE ASSET ALLOCATIONdocs.hedgeye.com/HE_TMS_4.6.16.pdf · This presentation is based on information from sources believed to be reliable. Hedgeye Risk Management is not responsible

3MO

4/11/2014 THE MACRO SHOW

April 6, 2016

CREE, INC.