healthy people 2100: scenarios of demographic and socioeconomic change kristie l. ebi, ph.d., mph...
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Healthy People 2100: Healthy People 2100: Scenarios of Demographic and Scenarios of Demographic and
Socioeconomic Change Socioeconomic Change
Kristie L. Ebi, Ph.D., MPH
NCAR Summer ColloquiumJuly 2006
London All Cause Mortality by London All Cause Mortality by Mean Weekly TemperatureMean Weekly Temperature
Carson et al. 2006Carson et al. 2006
ScenariosScenarios
•Coherent, internally consistent depictions of pathways to possible futures based on assumptions about economic, ecological, social, political, and technological development
•Scenarios include:– Qualitative storylines that describe
assumptions about the initial state and the driving forces, events, and actions that lead to future conditions
– Models that quantify the storyline– Outputs that explore possible future outcomes
if assumptions are changed– Consideration of uncertainties
Global
Regional
EconomicSocial &
EnvironmentalA2
A1
B2
B1
IPCC/SRES Reference ScenariosIPCC/SRES Reference Scenarios
Population
Economy
Technology
Energy use
Land use
Environment
SRES: Population
Complete Globalization
Strong Regionalization
Em
ph
asis
on
mate
rial
wealth
Em
ph
asis
on
su
sta
inab
ility a
nd
eq
uity
World PopulationWorld Population
Population 2050Population 2050
SRES: Economic Growth
Complete Globalization
Strong Regionalization
Em
ph
asis
on
mate
rial
wealth
Em
ph
asis
on
su
sta
inab
ility a
nd
eq
uity
OECD Development Assistance OECD Development Assistance StatisticsStatistics
1987-1988
average
1992-1993
average
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
I. Official Development Assistance of which
43 834 58 318 53 233 53 749 52 435 58
292 69
029
Emergency and distress relief 704 2 918 4 414 3 574 3 276 3 869 5 874
Emergency & distress relief as % of total
1,61 5,00 8,29 6,65 6,25 6,64 8,51
Health In MA ScenariosHealth In MA Scenarios
Scenario Health Gap
Possible Outcome
High Income Low Income
Global orchestration
Low Continued improvements; new medical technology
Malnutrition, infectious and chronic diseases
Techno-garden
Lower
Improvements in population health
New vaccines, increased food security
Adapting mosaic
Lowest
Less diabetes, obesity, chronic disease
Rapid improvement, elimination of hunger
Order from Strength
High Increased obesity and diabetes; better medical technology
Epidemics, poor health care access, famine, conflict
Climate Change & Malaria: Climate Change & Malaria: Analysis of the SRES Climate & Analysis of the SRES Climate &
Socio-Economic ScenariosSocio-Economic ScenariosVan Lieshout et al. 2004Van Lieshout et al. 2004
• MIASMA 2.2• HadCM3 with A1F1, A2, B1, B2• 0.5° by 0.5° grid
– Downscaled to national level– Re-aggregated by region
• Expert judgment of adaptive capacity (SES, current malaria control)
ResultsResults
• Malaria increases– Hot spots (due to confluence of
climate and adaptive capacity)– Fringe of its current distribution– Where current control is poor– 90 to 200 million by 2080s
• Malaria decreases where precipitation decreases
• Endemic areas largely not affected
YLL trajectories in I ndia for the four SRES storylines
0
50
100
150
200
250
1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 2120
Year
Ra
te p
er
tho
us
an
d
B1
B2
A1
A2
Pitcher et al. in press
Thank YouThank You
Elderly (65+)Elderly (65+)