health, skills, and parentingtmwcenter.uchicago.edu/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/james...2018/11/28...
TRANSCRIPT
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Build Skills to Benefit From Later Life StaticComplementarity
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Returns Per Unit Invested
Job Training
Schooling
Preschool programs
Programs targeted toward the earliest years
Prenatal programs
Post-SchoollSchool4–50–3Prenatal0
Rate
of
Retu
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o I
nvest
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in H
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apital
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Powerful Evidence For Effectiveness of Early Interventions
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Demonstrates the Power of Family Influence
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Successful Interventions Percolate Throughout the LifetimeThrough Multiple Channels
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Some Long-Run Evidence on the Effects of Quality EarlyInterventions
• Many successful early childhood interventions followed over thelife cycle operate primarily through boosting non-cognitiveskills of participants and parenting skills. IQ is often barelybudged for interventions past age 3.
• Long term evaluations of interventions often provide a differentassessment of the effectiveness of interventions than do shortrun evaluations.
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Long-Term Evaluations are Essential
• Literature filled with large—even miraculous—short-termevaluation results that fade out when evaluated long-term.
• Filled with “curricula” rather than a deep understanding of thefamily and how successful programs replicate beneficial familyenvironments.
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Perry Preschool Project
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Starts at Age 32 hrs a Day – Two Years
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Curriculum: Plan, Do, Review
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10% Rate of Return Per Dollar Invested(through age 40 and ignoring health benefits)
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Ongoing Work:Follow-up Through Mid-Fifties
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Figure 7: Male Cognitive Dynamics
79.2 94.9 95.4 91.5 91.1 88.3 88.4 83.7
77.8 83.1 84.8 85.8 87.7 89.1 89.0 86.0
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• Worked primarily through noncognitive channels.
• Early interventions promoting skills lower the probability ofengaging in unhealthy behaviors in adulthood.
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Figure 8: Perry Preschool Program: Histograms of Indices of PersonalitySkills and CAT Scores
Panel A. Externalizing behavior, Panel B. Externalizing behavior,
control treatment
(Bigger is better) (Bigger is better)
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Source: Heckman et al. (2013).
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Figure 8: Perry Preschool Program: Histograms of Indices of PersonalitySkills and CAT Scores, Cont’d
Panel C. Academic motivation, Panel D. Academic motivation,
control treatment
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Source: Heckman et al. (2013).
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Child Preferences, Beliefs, and Skills Induced By Intervention
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Figure 9: Felt as belonging to school at 19 (sign of factor); feels able tochange things in life at 40; has little control over things at 40
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Control Treatment
Average Treatment Effect, Pooled: .48 (p−value: .01)Average Treatment Effect, Females: .5600000000000001 (p−value: .03)Average Treatment Effect, Males: .4 (p−value: .06)
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Figure 10: Invites friends home frequently at 15 (sign of factor); helpothers at 27
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Average Treatment Effect, Pooled: .39 (p−value: .03)Average Treatment Effect, Females: .44 (p−value: .12)Average Treatment Effect, Males: .35 (p−value: .07)
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Decomposition of Treatment Effects, Males
90 100%0 10 3020 40 50 60 70 80
Personal Behavior
Cognitive Factors
Other Factors
Socio-Emotional State
CAT total*, age 14(+)
Employed, age 19 (+)
Monthly Income, age 27 (+)
No tobacco use, age 27 (+)
# of adult arrests, age 27 (-)
Jobless for more than 2 years, age 40 (-)
Ever on welfare (-)
Total charges of viol.crimes with victim costs, age 40, (-)
Total charges of all crimes, age 40 (-)
Total # of lifetime arrests, age 40 (-)
Total # of adult arrests, age 40 (-)
Total # of misdemeanor arrests, age 40 (-)
Total charges of all crimes with victim costs, age 40 (-)
Any charges of a crime with victim cost, age 40 (-)
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Effects of Perry at Late MidlifeJoint Work with Ganesh Karapakula
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Crime
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Figure 11: Cumulative conviction counts for violent misdemeanors forPerry men
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Figure 12: Cumulative conviction counts for property, violent, ordrug-related misdemeanors in the pooled sample
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Figure 13: Probability of ever having been convicted more than once forviolent misdemeanors in the male subsample
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Employment
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Figure 14: Monthly earnings (in 2017 USD) for male participants
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Figure 15: Employment rate for male participants
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Figure 16: Employment rate for female participants
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Health
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Table 1: Post-midlife health effects on Perry men
Control Treatment Worst-caseMean Mean p-value
High total cholesterol 0.944 0.708 0.018High C-reactive protein 0.542 0.346 0.030Weekly homecooking rate 4.333 7.724 0.041Monthly bedridden rate 0.032 0.015 0.065
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Table 2: Post-midlife health effects on Perry women
Control Treatment Worst-caseMean Mean p-value
Hair cortisol 89.29 39.01 0.024Regular exercise 0.250 0.435 0.079Diabetes 1.000 0.826 0.037Treated for substance usage 0.150 0.000 0.027Prolonged uninsured status 0.200 0.043 0.059
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Cognitive and Noncognitive Skills
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Table 3: Significant effects on cognitive and socioemotional outcomes inthe pooled sample
Control Treatment Worst-caseMean Mean p-value
General intelligence (Empiri-cal Bayes (EB) score)
−0.194 0.187 0.054
Positive personality (EB scorebased on self-rating)
−0.158 0.155 0.033
Positive personality (EB scorebased on self and external rat-ings)
−0.211 0.216 0.040
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Table 4: Significant effects on Perry men’s cognitive and socioemotionaloutcomes
Control Treatment Worst-caseMean Mean p-value
General intelligence (Empiri-cal Bayes (EB) score)
−0.239 0.245 0.051
Positive personality (EB scorebased on self-rating)
−0.135 0.144 0.030
Positive personality (EB scorebased on self and external rat-ings)
−0.149 0.169 0.058
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Parenting Mechanisms Generating Treatment Effects
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Parental response to Perry Preschool Program after 1 year experience oftreatment:
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−.015 −.01 −.005 0 .005 .01 .015Belief in Importance of Parenting
Control Treatment
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Parental Warmth, Perry Preschool
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Parental Authoritarianism, Perry Preschool
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Intergenerational Externalities: The Effects of the PerryPreschool Program on the Children of Perry Participants
Joint work with Ganesh Karapakula
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Selected Outcomes for All Children of the Perry Participants
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P: Worst-case randomization test-based exact p-value
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Figure 17: Summaries of selected intergenerational outcomes
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Figure 17: Summaries of selected intergenerational outcomes
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Figure 18: Selected outcomes of the male children of the pooledparticipants
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Figure 19: Selected outcomes of the female children of the pooledparticipants
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Figure 20: Selected outcomes of the pooled children of the maleparticipants
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Figure 21: Selected outcomes of the male children of the maleparticipants
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Heckman Health, Skills, and Parenting
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Figure 22: Selected outcomes of the female children of the maleparticipants
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Heckman Health, Skills, and Parenting
![Page 49: Health, Skills, and Parentingtmwcenter.uchicago.edu/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/James...2018/11/28 · Returns Per Unit %PMMBS Invested Job Training Schooling Preschool programs Programs](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022050523/5fa72e4303600a27b00e98e4/html5/thumbnails/49.jpg)
Figure 23: Selected outcomes of the pooled children of the femaleparticipants
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Heckman Health, Skills, and Parenting
![Page 50: Health, Skills, and Parentingtmwcenter.uchicago.edu/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/James...2018/11/28 · Returns Per Unit %PMMBS Invested Job Training Schooling Preschool programs Programs](https://reader034.vdocuments.mx/reader034/viewer/2022050523/5fa72e4303600a27b00e98e4/html5/thumbnails/50.jpg)
Figure 24: Selected outcomes of the male children of the femaleparticipants
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Heckman Health, Skills, and Parenting