h.-w. sinn european law and life culture 第四單元: the european competitveness crisis...
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H.-W. Sinn
European Law and Life Culture
第四單元: The European Competitveness Crisis
Lecturer: Hans-Werner Sinn, Ifo Institute for Economic Research
Unless noted, the course materials are licensed under Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 3.0 Taiwan (CC BY-NC-SA 3.0)
1
H.-W. Sinn
Bail-out measures
Unemployment and growth
Loss of competitiveness
Development of trade balances
Necessary and actual devaluation
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Unemployment and growth
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-4.8
-2.6-2.1 -1.9
-0.8 -0.8 -0.2
0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.81.4 1.6
-06
-04
-02
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
EU15 -0.3%
%
Source: Forecast by the Ifo Institute, June 2013.
Real GDP in the EU15 countriesEconomic growth 2013
H.-W. Sinn
2
6
10
14
18
22
26
%
Quelle: Eurostat, August 2013.
Unemployment rates in Europe
Spain Greece
IrelandGermany
Portugal
Italy
France
20122001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2013
H.-W. Sinn
2
6
10
14
18
22
26
%
Quelle: Eurostat, August 2013.
Unemployment rates in Europe
20122001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2013
Germany
Taiwan
ChinaChina
IndonesiaJapanJapan
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0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Germany
Ireland
Spain
France
Italy CyprusPortugal
Greece
%
JapanJapan
Youth unemployment(< 25 years)
Source: Eurostat.
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Loss of competitiveness
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75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
125
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12
Germany
Greece
Portugal
Italy
Public and private consumption% of NNI
11
Source: Eurostat
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Development of trade balances
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-300
-200
-100
0
100
200
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11Source: Eurostat, Datastream.
Current account balancesBillion euros
Germany
GIPSIC
12Source: Eurostat, September 2013.
The eurotango!
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Are we already on the right
track?
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40000
50000
60000
70000
80000
90000
100000
110000
120000
130000 Mill. euros
Imports
Exports
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Spain
2013
Source: Eurostat
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6000
10000
14000
18000
22000
26000
Import
Export
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
billion eurosGreece
2013
Sourcle: Eurostat
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Necessary and actual devaluation
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108Slovenia82Slovakia
67Greece56Spain
51Cyprus47Portugal47Ireland
40Italy39Luxembourg
37Netherlands26Eurozone25Belgium25France
22Finland17Austria
9Germany
Price development 1996-2008%
0 20 40 60 80 100Source: Eurostat, calculations by the Ifo Institute. May 2013
Trade-weighted appreciationvis-à-vis othereuro countries:
GIPSIC: + 30%
Germany: - 22%
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How much realignment has taken place and how much
is necessary?
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Greece is 61% more
expensive than Turkey,
Portugal is 43% more
expensive.Devaluation required: 38% and 30%
respectively
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60
80
100
120
140
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
GreeceItalyIreland
Portugal
Spain
France
Germany
Q3/2008=100
Real exchange rates (GDP deflator relative to rest of euro area)
& necessary realignment after Goldman Sachs
Long run
target
Italy
Lehman
5,5% inflation?
71% price increase?
42% asset loss?
Why Ireland?
Source: Eurostat
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Bail-out measures
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Help from the printing press
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ECB collateral requirements
Date StandardUntil 24 October 2008 A- From 25 October 2008 BBB-
3 May 2010 – 7 July 2011 Rating requirement waived for government bonds of
Greece, Ireland and PortugalELA creditNon-traded ABS created by commercial banksCompany credit
The printing press was
underbidding the capital
market.
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Billion euros
Finland, Germany,Luxembourg, and the Netherlands
(left-hand scale)
GIPSIC(right-hand scale)
Billion euros
Note: Germany, the Netherlands, Italy and Spain: end of May; other countries: end of April.
-200
0
+200
+400
+1200
+600
+1000
+800 -800
-400
-200
0
+200
-600
-1000
-1200
May 2013+808 bnMay 2013-717 bn
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Target balancesclaims and liabilities
Source: Eurostat
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699
46
66
118
214
5841
1156
772
384
Target liabilities**(GIPSIC)
Purchases of GIPSIC governmentbonds by the central banksof the other euro countries*
Greece (euro countries, EFSF, IMF)
Ireland (EFSM, EFSF, IMF)Portugal (EFSM, EFSF, IMF)
Claims related to the under-proportionate
issuance of banknotes(June 2013)
(67%) ECB
(33%) ParliamentsSpain (ESM)
Lending funds to euro countries(Billion euros)
Paid-out to date
* Data updated: 27 September 2013** Data as of end of June April 2013 (Greece, Ireland, Portugal and Cyprus); Spain and Italy: end of August.
5Cyprus (ESM)
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The EZB is predetermining
policy and curbing reform.
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2. Target
The euro trap
3. Government bond purchasesby ECB
6. Banking union
4. EFSF/ESM
1. Credit bubble
5. OMT
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Three options
1. Deflation in the periphery
3. Exit
2. Inflation in the coreViolation of the central bank’s
mandate
Mass unemployment
Bank Run à la Cyprus
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Potential international financial aid
Greece (185% of 2012 GDP)
Spain
Italy
358 bn. euro
4.838 bn. euro1.941 bn. euro
2.897 bn. euro
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Conclusions1. Financial crisis is only the tip of the iceberg
4. The likelihood of exits by large countries is growing
2. Overpriced economies must devalue3. Germany must inflate
H.-W. Sinn
頁碼 作品 版權圖示 來源 /作者
1-35Wikimedia commons / Blurpeace, Sreejithk2000 http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Ifo_logo.svg本作品屬公共領域之著作。瀏覽日期: 2013/10/04。
4Ifo institute依據著作權法第 46、 50、 50、 52、 65條合理使用。
5Eurostathttp://appsso.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/nui/show.do?dataset=une_rt_m&lang=en依據著作權法第 46、 50、 52、 65條合理使用。瀏覽日期: 2013/10/04。
6Eurostathttp://appsso.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/nui/show.do?dataset=une_rt_m&lang=en依據著作權法第 46、 50、 52、 65條合理使用。瀏覽日期: 2013/10/04。
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頁碼 作品 版權圖示 來源 /作者
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Eurostathttp://appsso.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/nui/show.do?dataset=une_rt_m&lang=en(age<25)依據著作權法第 46、 50、 52、 65條合理使用。瀏覽日期: 2013/10/04。
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Eurostathttp://appsso.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/nui/show.do?dataset=nama_fcs_k&lang=en(TIME:1995-2012)依據著作權法第 46、 50、 52、 65條合理使用。瀏覽日期: 2013/11/07。
11Eurostathttp://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/tgm/table.do?tab=table&init=1&language=en&pcode=tec00038&plugin=1依據著作權法第 46、 50、 52、 65條合理使用。瀏覽日期: 2013/10/05。
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Eurostathttp://appsso.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/nui/show.do?dataset=namq_exi_c&lang=en(TIME:2002Q1-2013Q2, , INDIC_NA: Exports of goods and services & Imports of goods and services, Spain)依據著作權法第 46、 50、 52、 65條合理使用。瀏覽日期: 2013/11/07。
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頁碼 作品 版權圖示 來源 /作者
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Eurostathttp://appsso.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/nui/show.do?dataset=namq_exi_c&lang=en(TIME:2002Q1-2013Q2, , INDIC_NA: Exports of goods and services & Imports of goods and services, Greece)依據著作權法第 46、 50、 52、 65條合理使用。瀏覽日期: 2013/11/07。
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Eurostathttp://appsso.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/nui/show.do?dataset=prc_hicp_midx96&lang=en(TIME:2008)依據著作權法第 46、 50、 52、 65條合理使用。瀏覽日期: 2013/11/07。
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Eurostathttp://appsso.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/nui/show.do?dataset=ert_eff_ic_q&lang=en(TIME:1995Q1-2013Q2)依據著作權法第 46、 50、 52、 65條合理使用。瀏覽日期: 2013/11/07。
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Eurostathttp://appsso.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/nui/show.do?dataset=bop_q_c&lang=en(Partner: Euro area, p.s. GIPSIC是 Greece, Ireland, Portugal, Cyprus, Spain and Italy)
依據著作權法第 46、 50、 52、 65條合理使用。瀏覽日期: 2013/11/08。
24Ifo Institutehttp://www.cesifo-group.de/ifoHome/policy/Haftungspegel.html依據著作權法第 46、 50、 52、 65條合理使用。瀏覽日期: 2013/11/08。
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頁碼 作品 版權圖示 來源 /作者
28Wikimedia commons / Lars Aronssonhttp://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:La2-euro.jpg本作品以創用CC「相同方式分享」1.0版授權釋作。瀏覽日期: 2013/10/06。
28Wikimedia commons / unknownhttp://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:AVA_Aandeel_1000_Gulden_1875.jpg本作品屬公共領域之著作。瀏覽日期: 2013/10/06。
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Hanser Verlag / Hans-Werner Sinn 著, 2012 ,《 Die Target-Falle – Gefahren für unser
Geld und unsere Kinder 》, Germany : Hanser Verlag 。http://www.hanser-literaturverlage.de/buecher/buch.html?isbn=978-3-446-43353-3依據著作權法第 46 、 50 、 52 、 65 條合理使用。瀏覽日期: 2013/10/06 。