growth core umkc

7/29/2019 Growth Core UMKC

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UMKC SDI 12 1(DBS Lab) Growth Core

Growth Core Pre Camp Index

Growth Core Pre Camp Index.................................................................................................................. 1

Uniqueness.................................................................................................................................................... 3

Economy Yes/No ....................................................................................................................................... 4

Economy High Now ............................................................................................................................... 5

Economy High Now ............................................................................................................................... 6

Economy Low Now ................................................................................................................................ 7

Economy Low Now ................................................................................................................................ 8

Economy Low Now ................................................................................................................................ 9

Economy Low Now .............................................................................................................................. 10Sustainability Yes/No .............................................................................................................................. 11

Growth is Sustainable ......................................................................................................................... 12




Growth Not Sustainable ...................................................................................................................... 16



Links ............................................................................................................................................................ 19

Transportation K2 Economic Growth.................................................................................................. 20



Impacts ........................................................................................................................................................ 23

Growth Good .......................................................................................................................................... 24

Growth Good War ............................................................................................................................ 25

Growth Good War ............................................................................................................................ 26

Growth Good War ............................................................................................................................ 27

Growth Good Terrorism 1/2 ............................................................................................................ 28

Growth Good Terrorism 2/2 ............................................................................................................ 29

Growth Good Terrorism ................................................................................................................... 30

Growth Good Environment 1/2 ....................................................................................................... 31

Growth Good Environment 2/2 ....................................................................................................... 32


2/65


Growth Good Environment .............................................................................................................. 33

Growth Good Environment .............................................................................................................. 34

Growth Good Space 1/2 ................................................................................................................... 35

Growth Good Space 2/2 ................................................................................................................... 36

Growth Good Space ......................................................................................................................... 37Growth Good Space ......................................................................................................................... 38

Growth Good AT Disease .............................................................................................................. 39

Growth Good AT Poverty .............................................................................................................. 40

Growth Bad ............................................................................................................................................. 41

Growth Bad War .............................................................................................................................. 42

Growth Bad War .............................................................................................................................. 43

Growth Bad War .............................................................................................................................. 44

Growth Bad War .............................................................................................................................. 45

Growth Bad Environment ................................................................................................................ 46



Growth Bad Disease ......................................................................................................................... 49



Growth Bad Poverty 1/2 .................................................................................................................. 52

Growth Bad Poverty 2/2 .................................................................................................................. 53

Growth Bad Poverty ......................................................................................................................... 54

Growth Bad Poverty ......................................................................................................................... 55

Growth Bad AT Decline Causes War ............................................................................................. 56

Growth Bad AT Space/Asteroids ................................................................................................... 57

Growth Bad AT Terrorism ............................................................................................................. 58

Misc ............................................................................................................................................................. 59

Transition Solves ................................................................................................................................. 60



Transition Fails .................................................................................................................................... 63




3/65


Uniqueness


4/65


Economy Yes/No


5/65


Economy High Now

Economy turning around nowstrong companies and rich households, consistent

housing market and job growth, and activist federal reserve

El-Erian, 6-8-12*Mohamed, Is America Healing Fast Enough? Online,http://www.minyanville.com/business-news/the-economy/articles/pimco-job-creation-us-economy-multinationals/6/8/2012/id/41541] /WFI-MBSix internal factors suggest that the United States economy is slowly healing. For some observers, these factorswere deemed sufficient to form the critical mass needed to propel the economy into escape velocity. While I hoped that they might be provenright, the recent stream of weak economic data, including Mays timid net job creation of only 69,000, confirmed my doubts. W ith this andother elements of a disheartening employment report now suddenly raising widespread worries about the underlying health and durability of

Americas recovery, it is important to understand the positive factors and why they are not enough as yet. For starters, large US

multinational companies are as healthy as I have ever seen them. Their cash balances are extremely high,

interest payments on debt are low, and principal obligations have been termed out. Many of them are

successfully tapping into buoyant demand in emerging economies, generating significant free cash

flow. Company cash is not the only source of considerable spending power waiting on the sidelines.Rich households also hold

significant resources that could be deployed in support of both consumption and investment. Thethird and fourth positive factors relate to housing and the labor market. These two long-standing areas ofpersistent weakness have constituted a major drag on the type of cyclical dynamics that traditionally thrust the US out of its periodic economic

slowdowns. But recent data support the view that the housing sector could be in the process of

establishing a bottom, albeit an elongated one. Meanwhile, job growth, while anemic, has

nonetheless been consistently positive since September 2010. Then there is the US Federal Reserve Board. Despite

legitimate questions about the effectiveness of its unconventional and ever-experimental policy stance, the Fed appears willing to

be even more activist if the economy weakens. Indeed, if the Fed makes an inadvertent mistake (the likelihood of this isconsiderable, given the countrys complex situation and the unusually uncertain outlook), it is more likely to err on the side of staying

accommodative for too long, rather than tightening monetary policy prematurely. Finally, with the November elections in

sight and subsequently out of the way, some believe that politicians in Washington might finally be in a better

position to agree to much-needed grand policy bargains . In addition to removing the damaging specter of the fiscal cliff

a potentially disruptive economic hindrance equivalent to some 4% of GDP, in the form of excessively blunt spending cuts and across-the-boardtax increases greater political effectiveness would serve to remove other uncertainties that inhibit certain economic activities. Each of

these six factors suggests actual and potential economic healing. So, not surprisingly, they have provoked

excitement in some circles that the US may finally be poised to leave behind the depressing trio of

unusually sluggish growth, persistently high unemployment, and high and growing inequality.

Economy strongUS productive capabilities are unmatched anywhere

Carnevale, 6-8-12[Chuck, Invest management advisor and article contributor, The US economy sitting on the threshold ofa new golden age? Part 1 Online,http://seekingalpha.com/article/647141-the-u-s-economy-sitting-on-the-threshold-of-a-new-golden-age-part-1?source=google_news] /WFI-MBThis leads me to perhaps some of the most important statements I will make in this whole series of articles: The true strength of an

economy lies within its productivity capabilities. In this context, there is no economy that exists today

nor any economy that has ever existed on the face of this earth that is more productive, and therefore

more powerful and healthy, than the U.S. economy of today. But even more importantly, our future

productivity over the next couple of decades is poised to grow exponentially. As this occurs, future

prosperity and the opportunities it brings with it are nothing short of remarkable. Yes, that is an optimistic

statement, but also realistic at the same time. Over the course of this series I intend to provide numerous reasons and evidence behind mycheerful view of our country's exciting future economic potential.
http://www.minyanville.com/business-news/the-economy/articles/pimco-job-creation-us-economy-multinationals/6/8/2012/id/41541http://www.minyanville.com/business-news/the-economy/articles/pimco-job-creation-us-economy-multinationals/6/8/2012/id/41541http://www.minyanville.com/business-news/the-economy/articles/pimco-job-creation-us-economy-multinationals/6/8/2012/id/41541http://seekingalpha.com/article/647141-the-u-s-economy-sitting-on-the-threshold-of-a-new-golden-age-part-1?source=google_newshttp://seekingalpha.com/article/647141-the-u-s-economy-sitting-on-the-threshold-of-a-new-golden-age-part-1?source=google_newshttp://seekingalpha.com/article/647141-the-u-s-economy-sitting-on-the-threshold-of-a-new-golden-age-part-1?source=google_newshttp://seekingalpha.com/article/647141-the-u-s-economy-sitting-on-the-threshold-of-a-new-golden-age-part-1?source=google_newshttp://seekingalpha.com/article/647141-the-u-s-economy-sitting-on-the-threshold-of-a-new-golden-age-part-1?source=google_newshttp://www.minyanville.com/business-news/the-economy/articles/pimco-job-creation-us-economy-multinationals/6/8/2012/id/41541http://www.minyanville.com/business-news/the-economy/articles/pimco-job-creation-us-economy-multinationals/6/8/2012/id/41541


6/65


Economy High Now

Economy recovering nowincreases in manufacturing

Rugabar, 3-2-12

*Christopher, Associated press, US economy shows strength. Online,http://www.telegram.com/article/20120502/NEWS/105029902/1237] /WFI-MBU.S. manufacturing grew last month at the fastest pace in 10 months, suggesting that the economy is

healthier than recent data had indicated. New orders, production and a measure of hiring all rose. The April survey from the

Institute for Supply Management was a hopeful sign ahead of Fridays monthly jobs report and helped the Dow Jones industrial

average end the day at its highest level in more than four years. The trade group of purchasing managers said

Tuesday that its index of manufacturing activity reached 54.8 in April, the highest level since June. Readings above 50

indicate expansion. The sharp increase surprised analysts, who had predicted a decline after several regional reports showedmanufacturing growth weakened last month. The gain led investors to shift money out of bonds and into stocks. The ISM manufacturing index

is closely watched in part because its the first major economic report for each month. Aprils big gain followed a series of

weaker reports in recent weeks that showed hiring slowed, applications for unemployment benefits rose and factoryoutput dropped. This survey will ease concerns that the softer tone of the incoming news in recent months marked the start of a renewed

slowdown in growth, Paul Dales, an economist at Capital Economics, said in a note to clients. We think the latest recovery is madeof sterner stuff, although we doubt it will set the world alight.

Multiple factors have ensured continued US growthjob growth, debt reduction,

avoidance of spending cuts and tax increases

Sherter, 3-22-12[Alain, Journalist, OECD: Global economic recovery is 'fragile,' uneven. Online,http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-505123_162-57439004/oecd-global-economic-recovery-is-fragile-uneven/] /WFI-MBThe Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development projects in a new report that GDP growth across thegroup's 34 member countries will slow this year to 1.6 percent, down from 1.8 percent in 2011, before recovering to 2.2 percent in 2013. But

while the group expects economic growth in the U.S. to rise 2.4 percent in 2012 and 2.6 percent in 2013,Europe's overall GDP this year is forecast to shrink 0.1 percent. "The crisis in the eurozone remains the single biggest downside risk facing the

global outlook," said OECD chief economist Pier Carlo Padoan in a statement.Increasing personal consumption and

moderate job growth is boosting incomes in the U.S., although rising energy prices have muted those positive effects.

Americans also continue to reduce their debt, pinching spending and constraining growth. Investment by

private businesses in 2012 has declined slightly from last year. On a more positive note for the economy, inflation

remains in check and is not expected to rise so long as the Federal Reserve maintains its policy of

supporting low interest rates for the foreseeable future. One key factor that has helped the U.S.

economy is its avoidance of the major government spending cuts and tax hikes that many European

countries have adopted since the 2008 financial crisis. But the expiration of tax cuts and unemployment benefits, coupled withautomatic spending cuts negotiated between Democrats and Republicans as part of a budget compromise last year, could derail the U.S.recovery, the OECD warns.
http://www.telegram.com/article/20120502/NEWS/105029902/1237http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-505123_162-57439004/oecd-global-economic-recovery-is-fragile-uneven/http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-505123_162-57439004/oecd-global-economic-recovery-is-fragile-uneven/http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-505123_162-57439004/oecd-global-economic-recovery-is-fragile-uneven/http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-505123_162-57439004/oecd-global-economic-recovery-is-fragile-uneven/http://www.telegram.com/article/20120502/NEWS/105029902/1237


7/65


Economy Low Now

World and regional economies are declining nowweak economic data from China,

Europe and the US

Sampson, 6-8-2012*Pamela, Associate press, World stock markets fall after Fed chief coy about new stimulus for US

economy. Canadian Business, online,http://www.canadianbusiness.com/article/86859--world-stock-markets-fall-after-fed-chief-coy-about-new-stimulus-for-us-economy] /WFI-MBWorld stock markets fell Friday, deflated after U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke gave nohint of immediate action to jump-start growth in the world's No. 1 economy. Markets were also bracingfor the possibility of glum economic data from China over the weekend. Bernanke avoided sending anysignals in an appearance before members of the U.S. Congress about what the Fed might do in responseto a slowdown in hiring. The 69,000 jobs created in May was the fewest in a year. Francis Lun,managing director of Lyncean Holdings in Hong Kong, said markets were "slightly disappointed" that

Bernanke had not said the Fed would extend its Treasury bond-buying program, known as quantitative

easing. The program injects money into the financial system, lowering interest rates to spur lending andgrowth. An effort by China on Thursday to reverse a sharp economic downturn with a surprise cut to abenchmark lending rate failed to rejuvenate markets because it may have been too little, Lun said. " Theeconomy is slowing much faster than people expected," he said. In early European trading, Britain'sFTSE 100 dropped 1 per cent to 5,394.44. Germany's DAX lost 1.3 per cent to 6,063.96 and France's CAC-40 fell 1.6 per cent to 3,023.37. U.S. futures augured a lower open on Wall Street. Dow Jones industrialfutures fell 0.7 per cent to 12,316 and S&P 500 futures lost 0.8 per cent at 1,299.60. The losses echoedthose in Asia. Japan's Nikkei 225 index fell 2.1 per cent to close at 8,459.26. South Korea's Kospi dropped0.7 per cent to 1,835.64. Australia's S&P/ASX 200 lost 1.1 per cent to 4,063.70. Hong Kong's Hang Sengshed 0.9 per cent to 18,502.34. Benchmarks in mainland China, Singapore, Taiwan, Indonesia, thePhilippines and New Zealand also fell. Aside from an interest rate cut, China's central bank also saidThursday that commercial banks would be allowed to pay higher deposit rates than those dictated by

the government. That could help to shift money to households from China's hugely profitablegovernment-owned banks. Analysts said the moves suggest May trade and economic data due to bereleased in the next few days could be unexpectedly weak, spurring authorities to take more urgentaction. China has rolled out a series of measures to stimulate the economy after growth fell to a nearlythree-year low of 8.1 per cent in the first quarter and April factory output grew at its slowest rate sincethe 2008 crisis. Private sector analysts expect this quarter's growth to fall further. Andrew Sullivan ofPiper Jaffray Asia in Hong Kong said in a commentary that investor concerns remained focused onEurope where a lingering financial crisis has now infected Spain and its banks. Global investors are

worried that the recession-hit country can't come up with the money needed to save its banks

without bankrupting the government. Expectations are rising that Spain's leaders will have to seek an

international bailout for banks swaying under the weight of bad real estate loans.
http://www.canadianbusiness.com/article/86859--world-stock-markets-fall-after-fed-chief-coy-about-new-stimulus-for-us-economyhttp://www.canadianbusiness.com/article/86859--world-stock-markets-fall-after-fed-chief-coy-about-new-stimulus-for-us-economyhttp://www.canadianbusiness.com/article/86859--world-stock-markets-fall-after-fed-chief-coy-about-new-stimulus-for-us-economyhttp://www.canadianbusiness.com/article/86859--world-stock-markets-fall-after-fed-chief-coy-about-new-stimulus-for-us-economyhttp://www.canadianbusiness.com/article/86859--world-stock-markets-fall-after-fed-chief-coy-about-new-stimulus-for-us-economy


8/65


Economy Low Now

Growth declining nowreducing oil demand

Fahey, 6-8-12

*Jonathan, Bloomberg Businessweek, Oil price tumbles on weak economy. Online,http://www.businessweek.com/ap/2012-06/D9V927R81.htm] /WFI-MBThe price of oil fell below $83 Friday on the prospect of weak economic growth with no immediate

assistance from the U.S Federal Reserve. U.S. benchmark crude fell $1.93 to $82.89 per barrel inmidday trading in New York. The last time oil closed below $83 was in early October of 2011. Brentcrude, which is used to make gasoline in much of the U.S., fell 2 percent to $97.91. Global economic

growth is weakening. Europe remains mired in a debt crisis and growth in the U.S. and China has

slowed. That reduces demand for oil to make fuels for shippers and travelers. Oil prices had risen off

recent lows on hopes that Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke would unveil a plan to stimulate theU.S. economy, which would lower the value of the dollar and provide investors with cheap money to buyoil and other assets. But Bernanke told Congress Thursday that no plan was imminent. That sent thevalue of the dollar higher, making oil look more expensive to foreign buyers.

Global Economy failing nowEurozone recession and Greece exit speculation

Jarvis, 5-24-12*Gail Marks, Chicago Tribune Award winning Finance Columnist, Eurozone's turmoil threatens global

economy. Online,http://www.chicagotribune.com/business/yourmoney/ct-biz-0523-gail-market--20120524-11,0,6654603.column] /WFI-MBWhile the eurozone's debt issues are not new, recessions are deepening, political instability is growing,and the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development warned Tuesday that without quickaction by European leaders and the European Central Bank, Europe could go into a severe recessionwith global ramifications. New concerns focus on potential runs on banks. In Greece, individualsfearing that their country might leave the eurozone have been removing money from accounts rather

than taking a chance that at some point they might be given drachmas instead of euros. Similar behavioris suspected in weak countries such as Spain, although analysts are not sure how extensive the practicehas been. "Bank runs can easily get out of control," Pimco CEO Mohamed El-Erian noted in an essay

Monday on Foreign Policy magazine's website. During the last few weeks, stock market strategists andeconomists have been trying to estimate the impact if Greece defaults, leaves the eurozone and other

countries threaten or take the same route. Given the lack of precedent, no analysis is certain. Whilemany analysts believe Greece would face a depression and Europe's recession would deepen amid

worry and banking trouble, there is disagreement about the extent of infection worldwide.
http://www.businessweek.com/ap/2012-06/D9V927R81.htmhttp://www.chicagotribune.com/business/yourmoney/ct-biz-0523-gail-market--20120524-11,0,6654603.columnhttp://www.chicagotribune.com/business/yourmoney/ct-biz-0523-gail-market--20120524-11,0,6654603.columnhttp://www.chicagotribune.com/business/yourmoney/ct-biz-0523-gail-market--20120524-11,0,6654603.columnhttp://www.chicagotribune.com/business/yourmoney/ct-biz-0523-gail-market--20120524-11,0,6654603.columnhttp://www.chicagotribune.com/business/yourmoney/ct-biz-0523-gail-market--20120524-11,0,6654603.columnhttp://www.businessweek.com/ap/2012-06/D9V927R81.htm


9/65


Economy Low Now

US and global economy decliningEurozone crisis, decreased US manufacturing, and

slow Chinese growth

Cable and Johnson, 5-24-12*Jonathan and Steven, Reuters News Service, Storm Clouds Loom Over the global economy. Online,

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/47551586/ns/business-world_business/#.T76LJNVYvuQ] /WFI-MBThe shadows over the global economy darkened this month as the euro zone's private sector

contracted, U.S. manufacturing growth slowed and China's once-booming factories faltered, surveys

showed on Thursday. In Europe, a downturn that started in smaller states on the euro zone's periphery is now taking root

in the core countries of Germany and France, where tepid growth had been the main ballast of support for the euro area

economy. "We are very much in a period of weakening global growth. It doesn't quite feel like 2008 yet

but the danger is we could get there quicker than we think," said Peter Dixon at Commerzbank. The euro zonecomposite PMI, comprising the services and manufacturing sectors, fell to 45.9 from April's 46.7, its lowest reading since June 2009 and itsninth month below the 50-mark that divides growth from contraction. The data sent German Bund futures to a record high as investors soughtrelative safety, and the euro neared a two-year low against the dollar. Wednesday's news that European Union leaders have been advised bysenior officials to prepare contingency plans in case Greece quits the single currency also hurt the euro. US momentum slows, China brakes

Europe's woes were felt across the Atlantic. Financial information firm Markit's "flash" U.S. manufacturing Purchasing Managers

Index slipped to 53.9 in May from 56.0, with slower export sales sapping momentum. Markit, which also compiles the

euro zone PMIs, released its U.S. index for the first time on Thursday but has been tracking data in the entire sector since late 2009. "The

cause seems to lie largely with weak export sales, which likely reflects the deteriorating economic

situation in Europe as well as slower growth in China," said Markit chief economist Chris Williamson. HSBC's F lash ChinaPMI, the earliest indicator of China's industrial sector, retreated to 48.7 in May from a final reading of 49.3 in April. It marked the seventh

straight month that the index has been below 50. The figures signal that the sluggish economic conditions of the first

quarter are set to continue throughout the first half of the year in China's longest slowdown since the

global financial crisis. "The series of highly disappointing April activity data - exports, imports, industrial production and retail salesindicators all fell short of even the most pessimistic forecasts - the first gauge for economic activity in the current month is a further signal that

internal and external headwinds are still biting into economic momentum," said Nikolaus Keis at UniCredit. The HSBC PMI has provided acontrast to the Chinese government's official PMI, which includes more state-owned firms with better access to credit. The government PMI hit

a 13-month high of 53.3 in April as exports ticked higher although domestic orders showed signs of weakness. US summer slowdown?Manufacturing has been a bright spot for the U.S. economy, with the Markit index showing the sector has expanded for 32

straight months. The U.S. PMI index's average reading in 2011 was 54.3. Butas the pace of hiring across the economy has

slowed in recent months, economists worry about whether demand will hold up this summer. "We are

seeing slower growth globally, including China," said Sam Bullard, senior economist at Wells Fargo in Charlotte, North

Carolina. "Manufacturers remain cautious. We have seen evidence of softer equipment demand in the

first quarter and that softness will likely continue into the second quarter." Separate data showed orders for

long-lasting U.S. durable goods rose less than expected as firms scaled back plans to add machinery and the militaryordered fewer aircraft. Meanwhile, first-time applications for U.S. jobless benefits fell slightly in the latest week, the Labor Department said onThursday, though data earlier this month showed employers in April added the fewest new jobs to their payrolls since October.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/47551586/ns/business-world_business/#.T76LJNVYvuQhttp://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/47551586/ns/business-world_business/#.T76LJNVYvuQ


10/65


Economy Low Now

Global economy failingwill tank US growth as well

Semuels, 5-24-12

*Alana, LA Times Staff Writer, Nervous investors are looking beyond positive U.S. economic signs.Online, http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-euro-markets-20120524,0,676006.story] /WFI-MBBut investors are turning their back on positive economic signs, looking nervously at Europe'sseemingly never-ending debt troubles and Facebook's flat IPO, wondering whether the global economyis beginning yet another deep dive. "Although better economic data did not go unnoticed, investorslook forward and not backward," said David Dietze, president and chief investment strategist at PointView Wealth Management in Summit, N.J. "All eyes are looking across the pond and seeing a bit of ameltdown in terms of the European sovereign debt crisis." European stocks and the euro plunged

Wednesday to 2012 lows on growing fears about a potential Greek exit from the Eurozone . Rattledinvestors then sent major U.S. indexes sharply lower in another volatile trading session, though stockswere able to reverse losses and finish mostly flat. Investors won't likely see stocks rally in the nearfuture. The Dow Jones industrial average has slid downhill since May 1, staying below 13,000 for thelast two weeks. The yield on 10-year Treasuries is reaching an all-time low, and investors are evenrunning from gold, a one-time safe bet that has fallen 12% since February. Problems in Europe haveplagued the global economic outlook for more than a year. But turmoil ahead of Greece's June 17elections indicates that the country's new leadership may not follow through with agreed-upon austeritymeasures. Leaders in Germany, which has the strongest economy in the Eurozone, are finding itpolitically difficult to continue to extend credit to Greece. But they also are loath to see the commoncurrency crumble with a Greek exit. Europe has so far come up with short-term solutions for theseproblems. Analysts say that long-term solutions are likely to be more painful than anything the

continent has recently experienced. "The economy is in a downward spiral, debt burdens are rising,the public is not accepting fiscal austerity, and at some point the Greek situation will come to its

head," said Sara Johnson, an economist with IHS Global Insight, which says the probability of a Greek

exit from the Eurozone is 75%. Though the U.S. economy is not overly dependent on Europeanconsumers, countries in Asia and South America could suffer if there is less European demand for their

exports. That could in turn slow demand for U.S. products. U.S. companies had, by and large, positiveearnings reports this year, growth that does not appear sustainable for the remainder of the year.
http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-euro-markets-20120524,0,676006.storyhttp://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-euro-markets-20120524,0,676006.story


11/65


Sustainability Yes/No


12/65


Growth is Sustainable

Capitalism can be green and is sustainable

Wallis, 2010[Victor, teaches in the Liberal Arts department at the Berklee College of Music (in Boston) and is themanaging editor of Socialism and Democracy, Beyond green capitalism. Monthly Review, 61.9,

Accessed online via academic search premier] /WFI-MBAt a conceptual level, it is clear that "green capitalism" seeks to bind together two antagonistic notions. To be green means to

prioritizethe health of the ecosphere, with all that this entails in terms of curbing greenhouse gases and

preserving biodiversity. To promote capitalism, by contrast, is to foster growth and accumulation, treating both the workforce and the

natural environment as mere inputs. Capital is no stranger to contradiction, however. Just as it seeks to balance market-

expansion with wage-restraint, so it must seek to balance perpetual growth with preservation of the basic

conditions for survival. Despite the ultimate incompatibility of these two goals, therefore, capital must to some extent pursue both at

once. Although green capitalism is an oxymoron, it is therefore nonetheless a policy objective. Its proponents thus findthemselves in an ongoing two-front struggle against, on the one hand, capital's more short-sighted advocates and, on the other, the demand

for a far-reaching ecologically grounded conversion of production and consumption.The green capitalist vision is sometimesassociated with small enterprises that can directly implement green criteriaby, for example, using

renewable energy sources, avoiding toxic chemicals, repairing or recycling used products, and

minimizing reliance on long-distance shipment for either supplies or sales. But the scope of such practices is likelyto be severely limited by market pressures. The aspect of local self-sufficiency is most widely seen in the food-services sector, especially infarmers' markets, which have experienced a notable resurgence in recent years in industrialized countries. This corresponds more to what Marx

called "simple commodity production," however, than to capitalist enterprise. Agribusiness allows residual space for it, but at the same timeundercuts it through economies of scale facilitated by technologies of food processing and storage; political clout, resulting in subsidies; andreliance on a typically migrant workforce that receives less than a living wage. Because of the resulting cost differences (as well as

inconveniences of access), patronage of farmers' markets is likely to remain primarily a political choice until much more is done to offset the

artificial competitive edge enjoyed by the food-industrial complex.Focusing now on the dominant corporate sector, we

find the green capitalist agenda expressed partly by the enterprises themselves, partly by industry associations, and partly

by government.3 For the corporations themselves, "green" practice takes essentially three forms: (1)energysaving and other cost-

cutting measures, which are advantageous to them in any case; (2) compliance with whatever regulations may beenforced by a government in which they normally have a large voice; and (3) most importantly, public relations (PR). Theindustry associations further amplify the PR aspect, playing an especially vital role on the global stage, where they strive to establish the

common assumptions underlying international agreements. They have worked extensively to influence the United

Nations Development Program, and they also carry out largescale lobbying campaigns to set negotiating parameters for theperiodic Earth Summits (Rio de Janeiro 1992, Kyoto 1997, Johannesburg 2002, Copenhagen 2009). The Business Council for Sustainable

Development thus came into being in the run-up to the Rio conference,declaring in its charter that "economic growth provides

the conditions in which protection of the environment can best be achieved."


13/65



Growth is sustainableInnovation from capitalism and transition to natural capitalism

will solve all problems with current growth

Schweickart, 2009*David, Loyola University Chicago, Is sustainable capitalism an oxymoron? PGDT 8, 559-580, Accessedonline via academic search premier] /WFI-MBHawken and the Lovinsagree with Kovel that the current model of capitalism is problematic. Capitalism, as practiced, is a financially

profitable, nonsustainable aberration in human development (Hawken, Lovins, and Lovins 1999:5). But they do not see the problem

as residing in capitalismitself. They distinguish among four kinds of capital, all necessary for production: human capital, financialcapital, manufactured capital and natural capital. The problem with the current form of capitalism, they argue, is its radical mispricing of these

factors. Current market prices woefully undervalueand often do not value at allthe fourth factor: the natural

resources and ecological systemsthat make life possible and worth living on this planet (Ibid. 2). All economists, liberal,

Left and Right, recognize that market transactions can involve externalitiescosts (or benefits) not paid

for by the transacting parties. All agree that there is a role for governments to play in rectifying these defects. The standardremedies involve taxation (for negative externalities) and subsidies (for positive externalities). More recently, cap and trade schemes for

carbon emissions have been added to the list. Hawken and the Lovins argue that these remediesproperly applied can work. The firststep, they say, is to eliminate the perverse incentives now in place. They document the massive subsidies thatgovernments currently provide for ecologically destructive behavior, e.g. highway construction and repair, which encourages suburban sprawland the shift away from more efficient modes of transportation, agricultural subsidies that encourage soil degradation and wasteful use ofwater, subsidies to mining, oil, fishing and forest industries, etc. Second step: impose resource and pollution taxes so as to reflect the true costs

of natural capital. Sweeten the pie by phasing out all taxes on labor the payroll tax, which increases unemployment, and income taxes as

well. The point is to level the playing field so that more sustainable technologies and more energy-efficient

processes can compete fairly with the destructive practices of industrial capitalism. We might even want togo further, and subsidize at least initiallythe technologies that reduce the negative environmental impact of our production and

consumption choices. Natural Capitalism is chock full of examples of the shocking waste pervasive in our

current system and of the existing technologies and procedures that could reduce our impact on the

environment to a small fraction of what it is now . Many of these changes are already underway. Many

more will follow if appropriate government policies are adopted. Hawken and the Lovins envisage a bright future: Imagine for a

moment a world where cities have become peaceful and serene because cars and buses are whisper

quiet, vehicles exhaust only water vapor, and parks and greenways have replaced unneeded urban

freeways. OPEC has ceased to function because the price of oil has fallen to five dollars a barrel, but

there are few buyers for it because cheaper and better ways now exist to get the services people once

turned to oil to provide. Living standards for all people have dramatically improved, particularly for

the poor and those in developing countries. Involuntary unemployment no longer exists, and income

taxes have been largely eliminated. Houses, even low-income housing units, can pay part of their

mortgage costs by the energy they produce. (Ibid. 1). Such a future will come about if we harness the

creative energy of capitalism and let the markets work.


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Growth is sustainable profitable technologies will solve for waste and eliminate

consumption

Schweickart, 2009*David, Loyola University Chicago, Is sustainable capitalism an oxymoron? PGDT 8, 559-580, Accessedonline via academic search premier] /WFI-MBHawken and the Lovins have much to say about energy. They argue that vast amounts of energy arecurrently wastedand that there is much profit to be made in reducing this waste. They are

convinced that technologies already exist that, if properly implemented, could drastically reduce, and

eventually eliminate, fossil fuel consumptionwithout relying on nuclear power. Many of these arealready profitable. Others would be, if sensible governmental policies were put in place.

Capitalism has regulatory components and profit motives that encourage sustainable

growth and use of resourcesFleisher, 2009*Chris, Valley news service, Is Capitalism Sustainable?: Short Answer: Yes, but With Better Regulation.

Valley news, 1-18-2009, Accessed online via academic search premier] /WFI-MB"Capitalism is sustainable in every sense of the term," said Anant Sundaram, a professor of business administration atTuck, during the opening chat last week. "With extremely important caveats." The conference, which ran Thursday and Friday, posed the

question of whether capitalism is sustainable, as an economic system and force on the environment. In panel discussions,

professors, consultants, investment analysts and other corporate leaders considered the question and

did their best to offer a way forward. Even if the economic circumstances surrounding the question

are not pleasant, most of the panelists agreed with Sundaram that capitalism could function without

destroying the natural world. But it might not be sustainable in its current form. If it is going to survive as a system of productionand exchange, it would have to change, become much more forward thinking and acknowledge new restrictions to keep from gobbling itself

whole. The question is more than a conversation topic for a Tuck-sponsored salon. It is being considered by plenty of people in the Upper Valleyevery day. "One thing that comes immediately to mind when you talk about the topic is our whole floodplain on 12A is covered with buildings,"said Judy Macnab, chairwoman of the Lebanon Conservation Commission, in reference to the Upper Valley's most notorious commercial strip.That development along the Connecticut River is what happens when capitalist impulses are given unchecked access to the naturalenvironment, and a testament to the need for strong zoning laws, she said. Commercial interests are at stake, too. Poor design and heavytraffic have made West Lebanon's Route 12A an unpleasant place to visit, she said, driving shoppers away whenever possible. A betterapproach would be the path two other developers have taken in Lebanon. One is David Clem of Lyme Timber Co., she said, who has solicitedfeedback from residents in redeveloping the former Bailey Brothers building on Route 10. Another is a project planned near the crest of Route120. The landowner, L-A Suncook LLC, owns 289 acres off the eastern side of Route 120, behind the former Wilson Tire building. Suncook, aPhiladelphia-based private equity firm, intends to set aside 223 acres for preservation and develop the rest for offices and a hotel. "Both ofthose are much appreciated for their willingness to work with us, instead of push things down our throats," Macnab said of the two projects.The incentive to do something that the community wants has some real economic value, according to P.K. Knights, local operating partner of L-A Suncook. The company might realize a higher profit if it were to pack all 289 acres with single-family homes, but there is also value in avoidinga long fight with the city by doing something the community wants. "It might be better to create something the community accepts and move

forward in the near future," Knights said. Going Green More than proper land use, however, there are the buildings themselves.

Sustainable development, as it relates to so-called "green building," was the subject of one Friday morning panel at Tuck.Environmentally sustainable construction is yet another area where profit motives and environmental

concerns are becoming increasingly aligned, even during a recession, according to the panelists. "Growth (in the

industry) is unbelievable," said Jim Boyle, founder and CEO of Sustainability Roundtable Inc., a sustainable real estate consultant. Thevalue of green building construction was estimated at $12.3 billion in 2008, according to the U.S. Green Building Council, and projected to be

Continued on next page


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Growth is SustainableContinued from last page

$60 billion in 2010. Dartmouth College has supported a number of sustainable projects and has three buildings on campus certified under the

U.S. Green Building Council's LEED program, a benchmark for green buildings. There are different certification levels that

consider a building's energy efficiency, use of native materials and other initiatives to reduce its

environmental impact. LEED certification has become attractive to companies that want to advertise sensitivity to the environment.But beyond the marketing opportunities, it doesn't always make sense to get certified, said Paul Olsen, of Dartmouth's Real Estate office, whowas one of the panelists. Getting certified is expensive, costing as much as $100,000 for a project. "In order to be a green building, it doesn'thave to get certified," Olsen said. "That money could be better spent." The financial advantages of going green are something Wayne Bonhagconsiders every day as a principal of Bonhag Associates. His Lebanon-based engineering firm is working on several LEED projects for SouthernNew Hampshire University, which is watching its bottom line carefully amid the recession. "We are very much aware that we don't want tospend any more money on the capital side of things that won't be coming back to us in the short term," Bonhag said. Sometimes it doesn'tmake sense, he said. One industrial client in New Hampshire wanted to line its roof with solar panels. But when Bonhag crunched the numbers,

solar just didn't seem to make sense. It was too expensive. However, he was able to find another renewable energy option. "In this particularcase, I was able to negotiate a wind purchase," Bonhag said. "It's still green, and yet we were able to do this so they can buy power." Not every

problem is so neatly resolved. Especially in the financial sector. Socially responsible investing has grown in popularity in

the past few years, but has been tested in this recession. The Wilderhill New Energy Global Innovation Index -- a benchmark for greeninvesting -- is down 56 percent since June 30. By comparison, the S&P 500 was down 31 percent over the same six months. Carey Callaghan

manages the Energy Alternatives Fund, a mutual fund through American Trust Co. in Lebanon. As its name suggests, the fund invests incompanies that, in one way or another, address the twin concerns of climate change and energy supply shortages. Since it was launched lastJune, the fund has declined 44 percent, Callaghan said. The financial crisis has hurt short-term prospects for some of his companies, asaddressing climate change takes a back seat to other pressing concerns. The collapse in energy prices has also affected perceptions about theneed to develop alternative fuel. Still, he believes the need for solar technology and alternative fuel sources will not go away. And new

regulations that result from this crisis -- for fuel standards, emissions and energy consumption -- could play to his advantage.If the crisis

has resulted in anything, he said, it is a healthy skepticism of unbridled capitalism and calls for tighter

regulation. "The blind faith of many adherents to capitalism has been put to the test because it's clear capitalism has flaws," he said. "You

need to impose some limits on capitalism." Impure Capitalism The panelists at Tuck largely agreed. One speaker -- Greg Hintzof the consulting company McKinsey & Co. -- began his introduction with a couple straw polls. First, he asked the audience of about 60 whethercapitalism -- simply as a system of exchanging goods -- was sustainable. Most raised their hands in agreement. Then, he wondered whether

capitalism, in its pure form -- an open-market free-for-all, with no regulation -- was sustainable in terms of social and environmental needs, ableto regenerate the resources upon which it fed. The other panelists wouldn't let him get that far. "No regulation?" Sundaram asked. Purecapitalism, Hintz repeated. The discussion broke down into a series of qualifying questions. No regulation at all? No contracts? Nothing? The

question never made it to a vote, and Hintz moved on with his talk. But the provocative suggestion of "pure capitalism" never went away. Later,regulation came up again, and Hintz suggested that if capitalism relied so much on rules and law, then the answer to the conference's question

was "no." Capitalism wasn't sustainable. "I completely disagree," Sundaram said. It is a system that needs regulation to

function, even to establish a clearinghouse where trade can happen, the other panelists suggested. It requires

policing to keep its practitioners' safe from their own worst impulses. The economic system upon

which our modern world relies would be unworkable otherwise. "I won't accept a definition of

capitalism that doesn't have a regulatory component," said Michael Dworkin, a professor at Vermont Law School. "It

becomes meaningless."


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Growth Not Sustainable

Major overshoot nowenvironmental destruction, resource depletion, deprivation

and conflict all signal the end of the growth economy

Trainer, 2011*Ted, University of New South Wales Australia, The radical implications of the zero growth economy.

Real world economics review, issue 57, Online,http://www.paecon.net/PAEReview/issue57/Trainer57.pdf] /WFI-MBThe planet is now racing into many massive problems, any one of which could bring about the

collapse of civilization before long. The most serious are the destruction of the environment, the

deprivation of the Third World, resource depletion, conflict and war, and the breakdown of social

cohesion. The main cause of all these problems is over-production and over-consumptionpeople are

trying to live at levels of affluence that are far too high to be sustained or for all to share. Our society

is grossly unsustainable the levels of consumption, resource use and ecological impact we have in

rich countries like Australia are far beyond levels that could be kept up for long or extended to all people.Yet almost everyones supreme goal is to increase material living standards and the GDP and production and consumption, investment, trade,

etc., as fast as possible and without any limit in sight. There is no element in our suicidal condition that is more

important than this mindless obsession with accelerating the main factor causing the condition. The

following points drive home the magnitude of the overshoot. If the 9 billion people we will have on

earth within about 50 years were to use resources at the per capita rate of the rich countries, annual

resource production would have to be about 8 times as great as it is now . If 9 billion people were to have a

North American diet we would need about 4.5 billion ha of cropland, but there are only 1.4 billion ha of cropland on the

planet. Water resources are scarce and dwindling. What will the situation be if 9 billion people try to use water as we in rich

countries do, while the greenhouse problem reduces water resources. The worlds fisheries are in serious trouble now,

most of them overfished and in decline. What happens if 9 billion people try to eat fish at the rate Australians do now? Several

mineral and other resources are likely to be very scarce soon, including gallium, indium, helium, and there are worries

about copper, zinc, silver and phosphorous. Oil and gas are likely to be in decline soon, and largely unavailable in the second

half of the century. If 9 billion were to consume oil at the Australian per capita rate, world demand would be about 5 times as great as it is now.The seriousness of this is extreme, given the heavy dependence of our society on liquid fuels. Recent "Footprint" analysis indicates that ittakes 8 ha of productive land to provide water, energy, settlement area and food for one person living in Australia. (World Wildlife Fund, 2009.)

So if 9 billion people were to live as we do about 72 billion ha of productive land would be needed. But that is about 10 times all the available

productive land on the planet. The most disturbing argument is to do with the greenhouse problem. It is verylikely that in order to stop the carbon content of the atmosphere rising to dangerous levels CO2 emissions will have to be totally eliminated by2050 (Hansen says 2030). (Hansen, 2009, Meinschausen et al., 2009.) Geosequestration cant enable this, if only because it can only capture

about 85% of the 50% of emissions that come from stationary sources like power stations.These kinds of figures make it

abundantly clear that rich world material living standards are grossly unsustainable. We are living in

ways that it is impossible for all to share. We are not just a little beyond sustainable levels of resource

consumption -- we have overshot by a factor of 5 to 10. Few seem to realise the magnitude of the

overshoot, nor therefore about the enormous reductions that must be made.
http://www.paecon.net/PAEReview/issue57/Trainer57.pdfhttp://www.paecon.net/PAEReview/issue57/Trainer57.pdf


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Sustainable growth is impossiblecarrying capacity inevitably trumps other resources

for generating wealth

Rull, 2011*Valenti, Botanical Institute of Barcelona, Sustainability, capitalism, and evolution. The European

Molecular Biology Organization Reports, 2011 Feb 12(2), 103-106, Accessed online via PubMed] /WFI-MBHowever, submitting natural resources to economic analysis does not guarantee sustainable practices.The first thing to bear in mind is that comprehensive wealth is finite and limited by the carryingcapacity of the Earth. If certain planetary systemssuch as climate, ocean acidity, freshwater andbiodiversitychange beyond a certain limit, it could trigger nonlinear and catastrophic consequences

on a global scale (Rokstrm et al, 2009). Second, the components of comprehensive wealth depend oneach other: for example, building a road through a forest is done at the expense of the forest, that is,

natural capital. Building the road might increase comprehensive wealth but it has a price: natural

degradation, including resource exhaustion, loss of biodiversity and increased pollution. If humangrowth continues, these costs could become so high that systemsboth ecological and economic

collapse. Sustainable practices could therefore aim to minimize the loss of natural capital, but if humandevelopment continues unabated, the carrying capacity of the Earth will nonetheless be reachedsooner or later. Rockstrm et al (2009) argue that humanity has already transgressed three of ninecritical planetary boundaries, namely climate change, biodiversity loss and interference with the

nitrogen cycle through industrial and agricultural fixation of atmospheric nitrogen, the combustion offossil fuels and biomass and the pollution of waterways and coastal zones. This means that nature issubsidizing the capitalist mode of development. For a quantitative estimate of natural costs, the LPI(Living Planet Index) of global diversity has declined by nearly 35% in the past 30 years (WWF, 2008);hence, the cost during this period has been about 1.2% of species per year. Even if capitalism, as thedominant economic model, incorporates natural capital into its costbenefit analysis, nature still loses

out; unlimited human growththe central tenet of capitalismand sustainable development areincompatible (Rull, 2010b). Some alternative modes of human development exist (Costanza, 2009;Schneider et al, 2010), but these also rely on sustainability.


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Economic growth is not sustainableexploits the Earths environment and

biodiversity in an unsustainable manner

Rull, 2011[Valenti, Botanical Institute of Barcelona, Sustainability, capitalism, and evolution. The EuropeanMolecular Biology Organization Reports, 2011 Feb 12(2), 103-106, Accessed online via PubMed] /WFI-MBHumans are exploiting the Earth in an unsustainable manner, which is accelerating both

environmental degradation and loss of biodiversity. Moreover, owing to global climate change, therates of deterioration and extinction will probably increase in the near future. The scientificcommunity has been highly sensitive to this alarming development and increased the number ofbaseline and ecological studies on the impact of humans on the biosphere and proposed variousstrategies to alleviate the environmental and biotic crisis. This has triggered vivid discussions about the

potential risks and benefits of measures such as adaptation and/or mitigation actions, ecosystem

restoration, the assisted migration of species or triage conservation (Mooney, 2010). One constant inthese proposals is a sense of urgency, as the pace of change seems to outstrip our capacity to react toit. There are various crucial issues that limit said capacity: the incomplete inventory of biodiversity

we still do not know how many and which species live on Earth; our deficiency in understanding the

relationships between biodiversity and ecosystem functioning; and the inertia of the planet itself

even if we immediately stopped using fossil fuels and reduced CO2 emissions, global climate changewould continue for decades or even centuries (Matthews & Weaver, 2010). Finally, but maybe mostdamaging, our social and economic systems are too recalcitrant to even acknowledge, let alone

abandon or reduce their destructive practices.

Growth is not sustainable, it is trumped by environmental limitstransition is key

Panayotou, 2003[Theodore, Economic Growth and the Environment. Economic Survey of Europe, 2003, No. 2. Online,http://staging.unece.org/fileadmin/DAM/ead/pub/032/032_c2.pdf] /WFI-MBWill the world be able to sustain economic growth indefinitely without running into resource

constraints or despoiling the environment beyond repair? What is the relationship between a steadyincrease in incomes and environmental quality? Are there trade-offs between the goals of achievinghigh and sustainable rates of economic growth and attaining high standards of environmental quality?For some social and physical scientists such as GeorgescuRoegen and Meadows et al., growingeconomic activity (production and consumption) requires larger inputs of energy and material, andgenerates larger quantities of waste by-products. Increased extraction of natural resources,

accumulation of waste and concentration of pollutants will therefore overwhelm the carrying capacity

of the biosphere and result in the degradation of environmental quality and a decline in humanwelfare, despite rising incomes. Furthermore, it is argued that degradation of the resource base willeventually put economic activity itself at risk. To save the environment and even economic activity

from itself, economic growth must cease and the world must make a transition to a steady-stateeconomy.
http://staging.unece.org/fileadmin/DAM/ead/pub/032/032_c2.pdfhttp://staging.unece.org/fileadmin/DAM/ead/pub/032/032_c2.pdf


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Links


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Transportation K2 Economic Growth

Transportation infrastructure investment is key to economic growth

Rahall, 2011

*Nick, Ranking member of House committee of transportation and infrastructure, Report: AmericasCrumbling Infrastructure to Cost Economy 877,000 High-Skill Jobs. 7-27-12, Online,http://democrats.transportation.house.gov/press-release/report-america%E2%80%99s-crumbling-infrastructure-cost-economy-877000-high-skill-jobs] /WFI-MBCiting a first-ever report released today by the American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE) that foundAmericas crumbling surface transportation infrastructure will cost the economy more than 877,000

jobs, U.S. Representative Nick J. Rahall (D-WV), top Democrat on the House Transportation andInfrastructure Committee, renewed calls for Congress to craft a robust surface transportation bill that

provides the investments necessary to tackle the well documented backlog of highway, bridge, andtransit infrastructure needs. While Republicans may hope that if they simply say we are going to do

more with less enough times it will magically make it so, todays report provides the cold hard truth

that Americas economic recovery and long-term competitiveness will suffer if we continue to underinvest in our future, said Rahall. The report paints a disturbing picture of how Americas small

businesses and middle class family incomes will be affected by our Nations deteriorating surface

transportation systems.Slashing investments by one third, as Republicans have proposed to do, willmake the economic impact on Americas middle class even worse than the grim predictions by theeconomists in this report. The report finds that a failure to increase investment in surface

transportation over the next ten years will have significant economic implications for the U.S.

economy, resulting in U.S. businesses paying an added $430 billion in transportation costs, householdincomes falling by more than $7,000, and U.S. exports falling by $28 billion. There is no doubt we need

to tighten our budgetary belt and learn to live within our means, but this report is proof positive thatthe cost of not addressing this impending catastrophe is simply too high, said Rahall. Instead of

making robust investments in Americas future and strengthening our position in the worldwide

economy, slashing investments in transportation infrastructure is shortsighted and will have anegative impacton the pocketbooks of American families. Republicans on the House Transportationand Infrastructure Committee earlier this month unveiled a six-year Federal highway and transitreauthorization proposal that represents a 33% reduction from current funding levels. The dramatic cutsproposed to surface transportation programs will destroy over 600,000 American jobs next year alone,undermine our Nations long-term economic competitiveness, and jeopardize our economic recovery.By cutting $109 billion in surface transportation investment, the Republican proposal ignores another

deficit just as critical to Americas future the infrastructure deficit,said Rahall. While ourinternational competitors are moving forward, the Republican bill would put American businesses at adisadvantage with companies around the world. America can continue to lead the worldwideeconomy and win the future, but we must be willing to invest in a transportation system fit for the

21st century just as our competitor nations are investing in their own futures. They are not waiting; wemust not wait any longer.
http://democrats.transportation.house.gov/press-release/report-america%E2%80%99s-crumbling-infrastructure-cost-economy-877000-high-skill-jobshttp://democrats.transportation.house.gov/press-release/report-america%E2%80%99s-crumbling-infrastructure-cost-economy-877000-high-skill-jobshttp://democrats.transportation.house.gov/press-release/report-america%E2%80%99s-crumbling-infrastructure-cost-economy-877000-high-skill-jobshttp://democrats.transportation.house.gov/press-release/report-america%E2%80%99s-crumbling-infrastructure-cost-economy-877000-high-skill-jobs


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Failed transportation infrastructure tanks the economyabout 7% of annual GDP

Davidson, 2012

*Paul, USA Today, USA's creaking infrastructure holds back economy. 3-20-12, Online,http://www.usatoday.com/money/economy/story/2012-05-20/creaking-infrastructure/55096396/1] /WFI-MBAs the economy picks up, the nation's creaking infrastructure will increasingly struggle to handle theload. That will make products more expensive as businesses pay more for shipping or maneuveraround roadblocks, and it will cause the nation to lose exports to other countriesboth of which areexpected to hamper the recovery. "The good news is, the economy is turning," says Dan Murray, vicepresident of the American Transportation Research Institute. "The bad news is, we expect congestion to

skyrocket." The ancient lock-and-dam system is perhaps the most egregious example ofaging orcongested transportation systems that are being outstripped by demand. Fourteen locks are expectedto fail by 2020, costing the economy billions of dollars. Meanwhile, seaports can't accommodate largercontainer ships, slowing exports and imports. Highways are too narrow. Bridges are overtaxed. Effects'sneaking up' The shortcomings were partly masked during the recession as fewer Americans workedand less freight was shipped, easing traffic on transportation corridors. But interviews with shippers andlogistics companies show delays are starting to lengthen along with the moderately growing economy."I call this a stealth attack on our economy," says Janet Kavinoky, executive director of transportationand infrastructure for the U.S. Chamber of Commerce. "It's not like an immediate crisis. It's somethingthat's sneaking up on us." Freight bottlenecks and other congestion cost about $200 billion a year, or1.6% of U.S. economic output, according to a report last year by Building America's Future EducationalFund, a bipartisan coalition of elected officials. The chamber of commerce estimates such costs are ashigh as $1 trillion annually, or 7% of the economy.
http://www.usatoday.com/money/economy/story/2012-05-20/creaking-infrastructure/55096396/1http://www.usatoday.com/money/economy/story/2012-05-20/creaking-infrastructure/55096396/1


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Transportation infrastructure investment has massive returns on economic growth

and GDP

Business news daily, 2010*Staff writer, U.S. Transportation Infrastructure is Roadblock to Economic Growth. 9-27-2010, Online,http://www.businessnewsdaily.com/245-us-transportation-infrastructure-is-roadblock-to-economic-growth.html] /WFI-MBAn army may travel on its stomach, but Americas economy travels on its highways, railroads andrunways. And the pace at which Americas infrastructure is deteriorating is having a measurableimpact on the U.S. economy. Thats the finding ofthe U.S. Chamber of Commerces Transportation

Performance Indexes, released last week. The index showed a significant decline over the last five

years in how the nations transportation infrastructure is serving the needs of domestic commerce,

international trade and the overall U.S. economy . The survey combines indicators of supply, quality of

service and potential for future growth across all modes of passenger and freight transportation

highway, public transportation, freight railroad, aviation and intermodal to show how well the U.S.transportation system is serving the needs of business and the economy. The index reveals a cleardownward trend from 2003 to 2008, demonstrating that the performance of our transportation

system is not keeping pace with the demands on that system. Over the period of the index, theperformance of the transportation system increased only 6 percent, while the U.S. population grew by22 percent, passenger travel grew by 39 percent and freight traffic increased by 27 percent. As our

economy recovers, the nations transportation infrastructure must be prepared to meet the projected

growth in freight and population, said Thomas J. Donahue, president and CEO of the U.S. Chamber of

Commerce. In fact, a ten-point improvement in the new national transportation could generate 3

percent more growth in the nations Gross Domestic Product. Our index, however, shows that fromnow through 2015 there will be a rapid decline in the performance of the system if we continuebusiness as usual. Right now were on an unsustainable path. The nations deteriorating

infrastructure is placing a major drag on the economy, Donahue said. We must focus on improvingthe way transportation delivers for business, removing barriers to maintaining, modernizing andexpanding our nations transportation infrastructure, and driving increased public and private

investment, he said.
http://www.businessnewsdaily.com/245-us-transportation-infrastructure-is-roadblock-to-economic-growth.htmlhttp://www.businessnewsdaily.com/245-us-transportation-infrastructure-is-roadblock-to-economic-growth.htmlhttp://www.businessnewsdaily.com/245-us-transportation-infrastructure-is-roadblock-to-economic-growth.htmlhttp://www.businessnewsdaily.com/245-us-transportation-infrastructure-is-roadblock-to-economic-growth.html


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Impacts


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Growth Good


25/65


Growth Good War

Eighth, sustained economic downturn causes nuclear world war 3

Austin 9

*Michael, Resident scholar at AEI, The GlobalEconomy Unravels, Forbes, 3.6, p.http://www.aei.org/article/100187 //wyo-tjc]What do these trends mean in the short and medium term? The Great Depression showed how social and global chaos followed

hard on economic collapse. The mere fact that parliaments across the globe, from America to Japan, are unable to make responsible,economically sound recovery plans suggests that they do not know what to do and are simply hoping for the least disruption. Equallyworrisome is the adoption of more statist economic programs around the globe, and the concurrent decline of trust in free-market systems.

The threat of instability is a pressing concern. China, until last year the world's fastest growing economy, just reported that 20million migrant laborers lost their jobs. Even in the flush times of recent years, China faced upward of 70,000 labor uprisings a year. A sustained

downturn poses grave and possibly immediate threats to Chinese internal stability. The regime in Beijing may be faced with a

choice of repressing its own people or diverting their energies outward, leading to conflict with

China's neighbors.Russia, an oil state completely dependent on energy sales, has had to put down riots in its FarEast as well as in downtown Moscow. Vladimir Putin's rule has been predicated on squeezing civil liberties while providing economic largesse.

If that devil's bargain falls apart, then wide-scale repression inside Russia, along with a continuing

threatening posture toward Russia's neighbors, is likely. Even apparently stable societies face

increasing risk and the threat of internal or possibly external conflict. As Japan's exports have plummeted by nearly50%, one-third of the country's prefectures have passed emergency economic stabilization plans. Hundreds of thousands of temporary

employees hired during the first part of this decade are being laid off. Spain's unemployment rate is expected to climb to nearly 20% by the endof 2010; Spanish unions are already protesting the lack of jobs, and the specter of violence, as occurred in the 1980s, is haunting the country.Meanwhile, in Greece, workers have already taken to the streets. Europe as a whole will face dangerously increasing tensions between native

citizens and immigrants, largely from poorer Muslim nations, who have increased the labor pool in the past several decades. Spain hasabsorbed five million immigrants since 1999, while nearly 9% of Germany's residents have foreign citizenship, including almost 2 million Turks.

The xenophobic labor strikes in the U.K. do not bode well for the rest of Europe.A prolonged global downturn, let alone a

collapse, would dramatically raise tensions inside these countries. Couple that with possible

protectionist legislation in the United States, unresolved ethnic and territorial disputes in all regions

of the globe and a loss of confidence that world leaders actually know what they are doing. The result

may be a series of small explosions that coalesce into a big bang.


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Growth Good War

Broad statistical models prove unmanaged economic declines lead to war, tanks heg,

and increases terrorism

Royal 10[Jedediah, Director of cooperative threat reduction, Director of Cooperative Threat Reduction U.S.Department of Defense, Economic Integration, Economic Signaling and the Problem of Economic

Crises, Economics of War and Peace: Economic, Legal and Political Perspectives, Ed. Goldsmith andBrauer, p. 213-215]Less intuitive is how periods of economic decline may increase the likelihood of external conflict. Political scienceliterature has contributed a moderate degree of attention to the impact of economic decline and the security and defense behavior ofinterdependent states. Research in this vein has been considered at systemic, dyadic and national levels. Several notable contributions follow.

First, on the systemic level, Pollins (2008) advances Modelski and Thompsons (1996) work on leadership cycle theory, finding that rhythms

in the global economy are associated with the rise and fall of a pre-eminent power and the often

bloody transition from one pre-eminent leader to the next. As such, exogenous shocks such as

economic crisis could usher in a redistribution of relative power (see also Gilpin, 1981) that leads to

uncertainty about power balances, increasing the risk of miscalculation (Fearon, 1995). Alternatively, even arelatively certain redistribution of power could lead to a permissive environment for conflict as a rising

power may seek to challenge a declining power (Werner, 1999). Seperately, Pollins (1996) also shows thatglobal economic cycles

combined with parallel leadership cycles impact the likelihood of conflict among major, medium and

small powers, although he suggests that the causes and connections between global economic conditions and security conditions remainunknown. Second, on a dyadic level, Copelands (1996, 2000) theory of trade expectations suggests that future expectation of trade is a

significant variable in understanding economic conditions and security behaviours of states. He argues that interdependent states are likely to

gain pacific benefits from trade so long as they have an optimistic view of future trade relations, However, if the expectations of

future trade decline, particularly for difficult to replace items such as energy resources, the likelihood

for conflict increases, as states will be inclined to use force to gain access to those resources. Crisis couldpotentially be the trigger for decreased trade expectations either on its own or because it triggers protectionist moves by interdependentstates. Third, others have considered the link between economic decline and external armed conflict at a national level. Blomberg and Hess

(2002) find a strong correlation between internal conflict and external conflict, particularly during periods of economic downturn. They write,

The linkages between internal and external conflict and prosperity are strong and mutually reinforcing.Economic conflict tends to

spawn internal conflict, which in turn returns the favor. Moreover, the presence of a recession tends to

amplify the extent to which international and external conflict self-reinforce each other. (Blomberg & Hess,

2002. P. 89) Economic decline has been linked with an increase in the likelihood of terrorism (Blomberg, Hess,

& Weerapana, 2004), which has the capacity to spill across borders and lead to external tensions. Furthermore,

crises generally reduce the popularity of a sitting government. Diversionary theory suggests that, when facing unpopularity arising from

economic decline, sitting governments have increase incentives to fabricate external military conflicts

to create a rally around the flag effect . Wang (1996), DeRouen (1995), and Blomberg, Hess, and Thacker (2006) find supportingevidence showing that economic decline and use of force are at least indirectly correlated. Gelpi (1997), Miller (1999), and Kisangani and

Pickering (2009) suggest that the tendency towards diversionary tactics are greater for democratic states

than autocratic states, due to the fact that democratic leaders are generally more susceptible to being

removed from office due to lack of domestic support. DeRouen (2000) has provided evidence showing thatperiods of weakeconomic performance in the United States, and thus weak Presidential popularity, are statistically

linked to an increase in the use of force. In summary, recent economic scholarship positively correlated economic integration

with an increase in the frequency of economic crises, whereas political sciencescholarship links economic decline with

external conflict at systemic, dyadic and national levels. This implied connection between integration,

crisis and armed conflict has not featured prominently in the economic-security debate and deserves more attention. Thisobservation is not contradictory to other perspectives that link economic interdependence with a decrease in the likelihood of external conflictsuch as those mentioned in the first paragraph of this chapter.


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Growth Good War

Global economic decline increases the risk of World War III and global nuclear war

O'Donnell 2009

[Maryland native Sean O'Donnell received a B.A. in History from the University of Maryland. He is aSquad Leader in the Marine Corps Reserve and is currently a graduate student at the University ofBaltimore studying law and ethics, Baltimore Examiner, "Will this recession lead to World War III?" ,http://www.examiner.com/republican-in-baltimore/will-this-recession-lead-to-world-war-iii,uwyo//amp]One of the causes of World War I was the economic rivalry that existed between the nations of Europe.In the 19th century France and Great Britain became wealthy through colonialism and the control offoreign resources. This forced other up-and-coming nations (such as Germany) to be more competitive

in world trade which led to rivalries and ultimately, to war. After the Great Depression ruined theeconomies of Europe in the 1930s, fascist movements arose to seek economic and social control. From

there fanatics like Hitler and Mussolini took over Germany and Italy and led them both into World

War II. With most of North America and Western Europe currently experiencing a recession, willcompetition for resources and economic rivalries with the Middle East, Asia, or South American cause

another world war? Add in nuclear weapons and Islamic fundamentalism and things look even worse.

Hopefully the economy gets better before it gets worse and the terrifying possibility ofWorld War III isaverted. However sometimes history repeats itself.


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Growth Good Terrorism 1/2

Economic growth prevents terrorism, studies provehigher opportunity costs

Gries, Krieger, and Meierreks, 2011*Thomas, Time, and Daniel, Univ. of Paderborn Dept. of Economics, Causal Linkages Between Domestic

Terrorism and Economic Growth. Defence and Peace Economics, Vol. 22, Issue 5, 493 -508, AccessedOnline via Taylor Francis Online] /WFI-MBEconomic theory argues that terrorists are rational individuals which choose their levels of violent activity

according to the costs and benefits arising from their actions(cf., e.g., Sandler and Enders, 2004). Because of terrorists

presumed rationality, the opportunity costs of terror also matter. Intuitively, low opportunity costs of violence that is,few

prospects of economic activity lead to elevated terrorist activity, whereas high opportunity costs

result in the opposite (cf., e.g., Freytag et al., 2008). Times of economic success mean, inter alia, more individual

economic opportunities and economic participation. Higher levels of overall growth should coincide

with higher opportunity costs of terror and thus less violence. Conversely, in periods of economic downturn should be

accompanied by fewer economic opportunities and participation and thus by more economic dissatisfaction.

In times of economiccrisis, dissidents are more likely to resort to violence as the opportunity costs of terror are low, while

the potential long-run payoffs from violence a redistribution of scarce economic resources which is to be enforced by means of

terrorism are comparatively high (cf. Blomberg, Hess and Weerapana, 2004). To some extent, empirical evidence

suggests that economic performance and terrorism are linked along the lines discussed before. The ndings of Collierand Hoeffer (1998) indicate that higher levels of economic development coincide with lower likelihoods of civil war, providing initial evidence

that economic success and conflict are diametrically opposed.Considering economic development and terrorism,

several studies found that higher levels of development are obstacles to the production of

transnational terrorism (cf., e.g., Santos Bravo and Mendes Dias, 2006; Lai, 2007; Freytag et al., 2008). Blomberg and Hess (2008) also

found that higher incomes are a strong deterrence to the genesis of domestic terrorism. Furthermore, there is

evidence connecting solid short-run economic conditions with less political violence (cf. Muller and Weede, 1990; Freytag et al., 2008). In

general, the evidence indicates that terrorism and economic conditions are linked. Here, economic

success seems to impede the genesis of terrorism, presumably due to higher opportunity costs ofconflict. In other words, in times of stronger economic performance individuals simply have more to lose.


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Growth Good Terrorism 2/2

Terrorism causes retaliation that guarantees extinction

Morgan 9

Hankuk University of Foreign Studies, Yongin Campus South Korea (Dennis, Futures, November,World on fire: two scenarios of the destruction of human civilization and possible extinction of the

human race, Science Direct), accessed 9-16-2011,WYO/JFIn a remarkable website on nuclear war, Carol Moore asks the question Is Nuclear War Inevitable?? In Section , Moore points out what

most terrorists obviously already know about the nuclear tensions between powerful countries. No

doubt, theyve figured out that the best way to escalate these tensions into nuclear war is to set off a

nuclear exchange. As Moore points out, all that militant terrorists would have to do is get their hands on one

small nuclear bomb and explode it on either Moscow or Israel. Because of the Russian dead hand

system, where regional nuclear commanders would be given full powers should Moscow be destroyed, it is likely that any

attack would be blamed on the United States Israeli leaders and Zionist supporters have, likewise, stated for years that if

Israel were to suffer a nuclear attack, whether from terrorists or a nation state, it would retaliate with the

suicidal Samson option against all major Muslim cities in the Middle East. Furthermore, the Israeli

Samson option would also include attacks on Russia

growth core umkc

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